
02 Jan 01022018 Trade Plan — Time to reassess my trading progress
01022018 Trade Plan — Time to reassess my trading progress
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed |
12/29 | 12/30 | 12/31 | 1/1 | 1/2 | |
Beers night before | 1 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Hours sleep | 8 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0.5x | 0 | 1x |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Coffees today | 2 espresso real quick | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 0 | 0 | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | no | no | yes |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | no | no | no | no | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 11:30 | 04:30 | 02:00 | 06:00 | 02:00 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- Happy the holidays are over. I have gained weight and decided to do something about it again. I am going to get up early in the morning and start exercising. No more excuses. Just do it. I also bought a wearable to track my progress in exercising but also to check my heartrate in different settings. Might be interesting to go look for some patterns in it.
- How do you feel?
- I am happy. Happy to have the people in my life that I have. But obviously tired because of the holidays and not sleeping too well.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 2.5
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- Yesterday the market was closed because of New Year’s day
- Let’s look at the day before
- On Monday we made a doji candle so there is indecision in the market
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 61% bullish
- Last week 63% bullish
- Last 3 days 68% bullish
- Sentiment has definitely turned more bullish so we might actually see more downside.
- MIXED BIAS
- According to investing.com today
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 48.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.05 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.8% lower than yesterday and 1.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.5% higher than yesterday and 20.7% lower from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
- MIXED BIAS
- Gold
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 76.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.31 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% higher than yesterday and 5.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 15.0% higher from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
- Gold price may rise in near-term
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- The API report will come out tomorrow 1/3
- EIA report
- The EIA report will come out on Friday 1/4
- Geopolitics and the headlines of today?
- Honduras to talk with Israel, U.S. on Jerusalem embassy
- BRASILIA (Reuters) — Honduras will hold talks with Israel, joined by the United States, aimed at opening an embassy in Jerusalem, the countries said on Tuesday, as the small Central American nation looks to follow U.S. President Donald Trump’s much-criticized move.
- Asia’s Factories Slump as Trade War, Cooling Tech Boom Hits Home
- (Bloomberg) — Factory conditions across some of Asia’s most export-oriented economies slumped in December, hit by the U.S.-China trade war and a fading technology boom.
- China’s Xi says Taiwan independence would be disaster, calls for peaceful ‘reunification’
- BEIJING (Reuters) — Taiwan independence would lead to “disaster”, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday, pledging efforts for peaceful “reunification” with the self-ruled island but warning China would not renounce the use of force.
- Cuba’s Castro blasts United States on 60th anniversary of revolution
- HAVANA (Reuters) — On the 60th anniversary of Cuba’s revolution, ruling Communist Party leader Raul Castro blasted the Trump administration for returning to an outdated path of confrontation with the island nation and of intervening in Latin America.
- U.S. agents fire tear gas into Mexico at ‘violent mob’ near border
- TIJUANA, Mexico (Reuters) — U.S. border agents launched tear gas into Mexico early on Tuesday to deter a group of migrants that one official called “a violent mob” from crossing over from Tijuana, according to a Reuters witness and the U.S. government.
- Chinese city economies need to cut reliance on real estate: state media
- SHANGHAI (Reuters) — China’s regional economies need to reduce their reliance on the property market for growth and focus on sustainable longer-term development, the Communist Party’s People’s Daily wrote on Wednesday.
- Oil Tanker Firms Scrap Most Ships In Three Decades
- Companies around the world have scrapped a record number of large crude tankers in 2018.
- Honduras to talk with Israel, U.S. on Jerusalem embassy
- Additional OPEC news
- None at this point
Intraday Technical Analysis
Wed | Thu | Fri | Week | Mon | Tue | |
12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | 12/24 — 12/28 | 12/31 | 1/1 | |
High | 47.064 | 46.79 | 46.313 | 47.064 | 46.634 | 0 |
Low | 42.603 | 44.448 | 44.498 | 42.603 | 44.859 | 0 |
Close | 46.675 | 45.473 | 45.19 | 45.219 | 45.405 | 0 |
Pip move | 446.1 | 234.2 | 181.5 | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 |
PP | 45.447 | 45.57 | 45.334 | 44.962 | 45.633 | 0 |
distance | 284.4 | 112.2 | 83.6 | 235.9 | 77.4 | 0 |
R1 | 48.291 | 46.692 | 46.17 | 47.321 | 46.407 | 0 |
distance | 446.1 | 234.2 | 181.5 | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 |
R2 | 49.908 | 47.912 | 47.149 | 49.423 | 47.408 | 0 |
distance | -161.7 | -122 | -97.9 | -210.2 | -100.1 | 0 |
S1 | 43.83 | 44.35 | 44.355 | 42.86 | 44.632 | 0 |
distance | -446.1 | -234.2 | -181.5 | -446.1 | -177.5 | 0 |
S2 | 40.986 | 43.228 | 43.519 | 40.501 | 43.858 | 0 |
TV | 79,278 | 79,785 | 74,216 | 275,458 | 38,261 | 0 |
50MA | 56.705 | 56.215 | 55.746 | 55.264 | 0 | |
200MA | 65.613 | 65.522 | 65.421 | 65.327 | 0 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- It is an odd week since we had a holiday yesterday
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- We have a bigger resistance at 46.25 and the one after is at 49.50
- On the support side we have the 44.40 and then at 42.80
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- We can see that we gapped up and then immediately started moving down but we have hit the WPP 44.962 level and seem to be rejected it.
- How far away are we from technical levels?
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | 30M | 47.05 | 189 |
R5 | DR1 | 46.407 | 124.7 |
R4 | 30M | 46.4 | 124 |
R3 | Daily | 46.25 | 109 |
R2 | 30M | 46 | 84 |
R1 | DPP | 45.633 | 47.3 |
CURRENT | 45.16 | ||
S1 | 30M | 45.15 | -1 |
S2 | WPP | 44.962 | -19.8 |
S3 | 30M | 44.8 | -36 |
S4 | DS1 | 44.632 | -52.8 |
S5 | Daily | 44.4 | -76 |
S6 | DS2 | 43.858 | -130.2 |
Current | 45.16 | |
Price | ||
Daily | Price | Distance |
50MA | 55.264 | 1,010 |
200MA | 65.327 | 2,017 |
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- As I mentioned before we gapped up and then filled the gap almost straight afterwards
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- 2.3360
- ATR has been decreasing
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- I’ll be looking for a confirmation of support at the 45 level and trade up for the day but I am not married to this perspective. I understand that anything can happen in the market.
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Be consistent in taking PC setups
Reading the Tape (KC VWAP divergence/convergence?)
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- During AS we repeatedly tried to move away from the 45 level but then pushed a bit beyond it but got pushed back up higher so let’s see if the 45 level can actually hold.
- T1 and T2 were during AS
- T3
- Lost 34 ticks
- The 44.80 level seems to be were the bulls and bears meet. High TV action on the 10:20
- T4
- Lost 28 ticks
- Price moved up to the UKC which is also the 30M 45.15 and 30M 200MA and VWAP mean
- We might be looking to BO here. We dropped a few ticks real quick and then pushed back hard and now we have few long wicked candles at the top that look like accumulation/distribution perhaps.
- We dropped back down to the 5M VWAP mean
- I threw out my plan and started trading bigger and got stuck in losing trades and it didn’t get better.
- I am going to go for a walk now and clear my head
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T3
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal
- I took this trade because we had rejected the 45 level a few times and we dropped to the 5M LKC which is also the 2.0 SD and the 30M 44.80 so thought that might hold as support and reverse
- Entry 44.948
- Swing Reversal
- SL
- 44.662
- TP
- 44.850
- Trade Management
- I think the trade is going to go against me
- SL got taken out at 44.604
- Loss 34 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T4
- Why? What do I see?
- Squeeze continuation
- Entry
- 44.674
- SL
- 45.017
- TP
- 44.952
- Trade Management
- Lost 28 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T5
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal / Swing Reversal with continuation / Squeeze
- SL
- TP
- Trade Management
- Why? What do I see?
- T6
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal / Swing Reversal with continuation / Squeeze
- SL
- TP
- Trade Management
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I fucked up
Daily Report Card
- I fucked up
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
QODE SEO
Trade Journal on day trading the WTI crude oil market
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01022018 Trade Plan — I F***** up
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed |
12/29 | 12/30 | 12/31 | 1/1 | 1/2 | |
Beers night before | 1 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Hours sleep | 8 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0.5x | 0 | 1x |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Coffees today | 2 espresso real quick | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 0 | 0 | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | no | no | yes |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | no | no | no | no | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 11:30 | 04:30 | 02:00 | 06:00 | 02:00 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- Happy the holidays are over. I have gained weight and decided to do something about it again. I am going to get up early in the morning and start exercising. No more excuses. Just do it. I also bought a wearable to track my progress in exercising but also to check my heartrate in different settings. Might be interesting to go look for some patterns in it.
- How do you feel?
- I am happy. Happy to have the people in my life that I have. But obviously tired because of the holidays and not sleeping too well.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 2.5
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- Yesterday the market was closed because of New Year’s day
- Let’s look at the day before
- On Monday we made a doji candle so there is indecision in the market
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 61% bullish
- Last week 63% bullish
- Last 3 days 68% bullish
- Sentiment has definitely turned more bullish so we might actually see more downside.
- MIXED BIAS
- According to investing.com today
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 48.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.05 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.8% lower than yesterday and 1.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.5% higher than yesterday and 20.7% lower from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
- MIXED BIAS
- Gold
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 76.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.31 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% higher than yesterday and 5.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 15.0% higher from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
- Gold price may rise in near-term
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- The API report will come out tomorrow 1/3
- EIA report
- The EIA report will come out on Friday 1/4
- Geopolitics and the headlines of today?
- Honduras to talk with Israel, U.S. on Jerusalem embassy
- BRASILIA (Reuters) — Honduras will hold talks with Israel, joined by the United States, aimed at opening an embassy in Jerusalem, the countries said on Tuesday, as the small Central American nation looks to follow U.S. President Donald Trump’s much-criticized move.
- Asia’s Factories Slump as Trade War, Cooling Tech Boom Hits Home
- (Bloomberg) — Factory conditions across some of Asia’s most export-oriented economies slumped in December, hit by the U.S.-China trade war and a fading technology boom.
- China’s Xi says Taiwan independence would be disaster, calls for peaceful ‘reunification’
- BEIJING (Reuters) — Taiwan independence would lead to “disaster”, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Wednesday, pledging efforts for peaceful “reunification” with the self-ruled island but warning China would not renounce the use of force.
- Cuba’s Castro blasts United States on 60th anniversary of revolution
- HAVANA (Reuters) — On the 60th anniversary of Cuba’s revolution, ruling Communist Party leader Raul Castro blasted the Trump administration for returning to an outdated path of confrontation with the island nation and of intervening in Latin America.
- U.S. agents fire tear gas into Mexico at ‘violent mob’ near border
- TIJUANA, Mexico (Reuters) — U.S. border agents launched tear gas into Mexico early on Tuesday to deter a group of migrants that one official called “a violent mob” from crossing over from Tijuana, according to a Reuters witness and the U.S. government.
- Chinese city economies need to cut reliance on real estate: state media
- SHANGHAI (Reuters) — China’s regional economies need to reduce their reliance on the property market for growth and focus on sustainable longer-term development, the Communist Party’s People’s Daily wrote on Wednesday.
- Oil Tanker Firms Scrap Most Ships In Three Decades
- Companies around the world have scrapped a record number of large crude tankers in 2018.
- Honduras to talk with Israel, U.S. on Jerusalem embassy
- Additional OPEC news
- None at this point
Intraday Technical Analysis
Wed | Thu | Fri | Week | Mon | Tue | |
12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | 12/24 — 12/28 | 12/31 | 1/1 | |
High | 47.064 | 46.79 | 46.313 | 47.064 | 46.634 | 0 |
Low | 42.603 | 44.448 | 44.498 | 42.603 | 44.859 | 0 |
Close | 46.675 | 45.473 | 45.19 | 45.219 | 45.405 | 0 |
Pip move | 446.1 | 234.2 | 181.5 | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 |
PP | 45.447 | 45.57 | 45.334 | 44.962 | 45.633 | 0 |
distance | 284.4 | 112.2 | 83.6 | 235.9 | 77.4 | 0 |
R1 | 48.291 | 46.692 | 46.17 | 47.321 | 46.407 | 0 |
distance | 446.1 | 234.2 | 181.5 | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 |
R2 | 49.908 | 47.912 | 47.149 | 49.423 | 47.408 | 0 |
distance | -161.7 | -122 | -97.9 | -210.2 | -100.1 | 0 |
S1 | 43.83 | 44.35 | 44.355 | 42.86 | 44.632 | 0 |
distance | -446.1 | -234.2 | -181.5 | -446.1 | -177.5 | 0 |
S2 | 40.986 | 43.228 | 43.519 | 40.501 | 43.858 | 0 |
TV | 79,278 | 79,785 | 74,216 | 275,458 | 38,261 | 0 |
50MA | 56.705 | 56.215 | 55.746 | 55.264 | 0 | |
200MA | 65.613 | 65.522 | 65.421 | 65.327 | 0 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- It is an odd week since we had a holiday yesterday
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- We have a bigger resistance at 46.25 and the one after is at 49.50
- On the support side we have the 44.40 and then at 42.80
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- We can see that we gapped up and then immediately started moving down but we have hit the WPP 44.962 level and seem to be rejected it.
- How far away are we from technical levels?
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | 30M | 47.05 | 189 |
R5 | DR1 | 46.407 | 124.7 |
R4 | 30M | 46.4 | 124 |
R3 | Daily | 46.25 | 109 |
R2 | 30M | 46 | 84 |
R1 | DPP | 45.633 | 47.3 |
CURRENT | 45.16 | ||
S1 | 30M | 45.15 | -1 |
S2 | WPP | 44.962 | -19.8 |
S3 | 30M | 44.8 | -36 |
S4 | DS1 | 44.632 | -52.8 |
S5 | Daily | 44.4 | -76 |
S6 | DS2 | 43.858 | -130.2 |
Current | 45.16 | |
Price | ||
Daily | Price | Distance |
50MA | 55.264 | 1,010 |
200MA | 65.327 | 2,017 |
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- As I mentioned before we gapped up and then filled the gap almost straight afterwards
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- 2.3360
- ATR has been decreasing
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- I’ll be looking for a confirmation of support at the 45 level and trade up for the day but I am not married to this perspective. I understand that anything can happen in the market.
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Be consistent in taking PC setups
Reading the Tape (KC VWAP divergence/convergence?)
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- During AS we repeatedly tried to move away from the 45 level but then pushed a bit beyond it but got pushed back up higher so let’s see if the 45 level can actually hold.
- T1 and T2 were during AS
- T3
- Lost 34 ticks
- The 44.80 level seems to be were the bulls and bears meet. High TV action on the 10:20
- T4
- Lost 28 ticks
- Price moved up to the UKC which is also the 30M 45.15 and 30M 200MA and VWAP mean
- We might be looking to BO here. We dropped a few ticks real quick and then pushed back hard and now we have few long wicked candles at the top that look like accumulation/distribution perhaps.
- We dropped back down to the 5M VWAP mean
- I threw out my plan and started trading bigger and got stuck in losing trades and it didn’t get better.
- I am going to go for a walk now and clear my head
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T3
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal
- I took this trade because we had rejected the 45 level a few times and we dropped to the 5M LKC which is also the 2.0 SD and the 30M 44.80 so thought that might hold as support and reverse
- Entry 44.948
- Swing Reversal
- SL
- 44.662
- TP
- 44.850
- Trade Management
- I think the trade is going to go against me
- SL got taken out at 44.604
- Loss 34 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T4
- Why? What do I see?
- Squeeze continuation
- Entry
- 44.674
- SL
- 45.017
- TP
- 44.952
- Trade Management
- Lost 28 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T5
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal / Swing Reversal with continuation / Squeeze
- SL
- TP
- Trade Management
- Why? What do I see?
- T6
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal / Swing Reversal with continuation / Squeeze
- SL
- TP
- Trade Management
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I fucked up
Daily Report Card
- I fucked up
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.