
03 Jan 01032018 Trade Plan — DPP breakout
01032018 Trade Plan — DPP breakout
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu |
12/30 | 12/31 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 1/3 | |
Beers night before | 10 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Hours sleep | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8.5 |
Sleep well? | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0.5x | 0 | 1x | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 0 | 0 | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | morning espresso, afternoon big hot chocolate |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | no | yes | yes |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | no | no | no | yes | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 04:30 | 02:00 | 06:00 | 02:00 | 10:00 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- My finger still hurts and will make an appointment today to go see a doctor in the next few days
- How do you feel?
- I feel good because I started to get more active again. I bought a fitbit to track my progress and so far I’m liking it.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- Yesterday we had a big up day. We moved from DS2 44.632 through WPP 44.962 all the way through DPP 45.633, DR1 46.407, and found resistance at WR1 47.321 / DR2 47.408 levels.
- On the daily we moved up to the 1.0 SD
- On the 4H we touched the UKC and then moved back down to the 50MA so let’s see if we can hold this as support
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com yesterday
- All sentiments is 61% bullish
- Last week 63% bullish
- Last 3 days 68% bullish
- Sentiment has definitely turned more bullish so we might actually see more downside.
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 61% bullish
- Last 3 days 62% bullish
- We went down in bullishness a bit
- According to investing.com yesterday
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- High 1.14968
- Low 1.13252
- Close 1.13442
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 63.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.71 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Dec 12 when EURUSD traded near 1.13724. The number of traders net-long is 47.7% higher than yesterday and 18.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 32.2% lower than yesterday and 19.6% lower from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
- BEARISH BIAS
- Gold
- High 1288.70
- Low 1278.87
- Close 1284.17
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 76.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.31 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% higher than yesterday and 5.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 15.0% higher from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
- Gold Sentiment Suggests a Bullish Bias Despite Net-Long Positions
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Report coming out today
- EIA report
- Report coming out tomorrow. Forecast ‑2.333M.
- Geopolitics and the headlines of today?
- Iran Boosts Gasoline Production To Insulate From U.S. Sanctions
- Iran is closer to achieving self-sufficiency in gasoline by raising its national production capacity to more than 100 million liters daily, Iranian media report.
- For Shanahan, a very public debut in Trump’s cabinet
- WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Patrick Shanahan was thrust into the spotlight during his debut as acting U.S. defense secretary on Wednesday, sitting next to President Donald Trump as he publicly disparaged Shanahan’s predecessor, lampooned the war in Afghanistan and called Syria a land of “sand” and “death.”
- Nigeria Boosts Oil Production As OPEC Cuts Begin
- Days before OPEC’s production cuts started on January 1, France’s Total had started up oil production from Nigeria’s ultra-deepwater oil field Egina, which is expected to produce 200,000 bpd at peak output.
- Thai National Tech Development Center to Introduce Blockchain in Voting
- The National Electronics and Computer Technology Center (NECTEC) of Thailand has developed blockchain technology for e‑voting, the Bangkok Post reports on Jan. 2.
- Saudi Arabia may cut February heavy crude prices to Asia
- SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to cut February prices for heavier crude grades sold to Asia due to weaker fuel oil margins, respondents to a Reuters survey said on Thursday.
- Iraq’s Oil Exports Jump In December
- Iraq’s oil exports jumped in December compared to November, as exports from the southern ports at Basra hit a record high and exports from the northern Kirkuk fields increased after a slow tentative resumption in November following a year-long hiatus.
- Oil Is At The Mercy Of Financial Markets
- The price gains are not entirely convincing. WTI and Brent posted strong gains, each up more than 3 percent by midday in New York, but come largely after U.S. equity markets shook off an earlier bout of pessimism.
- Oil Prices Rise As Saudi Oil Exports Plummet
- Saudi Arabia’s oil exports plummeted in the last month of 2018, reassuring oil markets that OPEC’s de facto leader may have enough fortitude to carry the water of the cartel in lowering global oil inventories.
- No progress toward ending U.S. shutdown in Trump meeting with lawmakers
- WASHINGTON (Reuters) — No agreement came out of a meeting between U.S. congressional leaders and President Donald Trump on Wednesday to end a partial government shutdown now in its 12th day as the president stuck to his demand for $5 billion in border wall funding fiercely opposed by Democrats.
- Equity Fund CEO Recommends to Steer Clear of Crypto, Advises to Focus on ‘Basic Goods’
- The CEO of investment house Gateway Partners, is shunning Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency in favor of more traditional investment strategies, Asia-focused business publication Nikkei Asian Review reported on Jan. 2.
- Trump gives no timetable for Syria exit; wants to protect Kurds
- WASHINGTON (Reuters) — U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the United States would get out of Syria slowly “over a period of time” and would protect the U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters in the country as Washington draws down troops.
- Iran Boosts Gasoline Production To Insulate From U.S. Sanctions
- Additional OPEC news
- Nope
Intraday Technical Analysis
Thu | Fri | Week | Mon | Tue | Wed | |
12/27 | 12/28 | 12/24 — 12/28 | 12/31 | 1/1 | 1/2 | |
High | 46.79 | 46.313 | 47.064 | 46.634 | 0 | 47.918 |
Low | 44.448 | 44.498 | 42.603 | 44.859 | 0 | 44.505 |
Close | 45.473 | 45.19 | 45.219 | 45.405 | 0 | 46.457 |
Pip move | 234.2 | 181.5 | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 | 341.3 |
PP | 45.57 | 45.334 | 44.962 | 45.633 | 0 | 46.293 |
distance | 112.2 | 83.6 | 235.9 | 77.4 | 0 | 178.8 |
R1 | 46.692 | 46.17 | 47.321 | 46.407 | 0 | 48.081 |
distance | 234.2 | 181.5 | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 | 341.3 |
R2 | 47.912 | 47.149 | 49.423 | 47.408 | 0 | 49.706 |
distance | -122 | -97.9 | -210.2 | -100.1 | 0 | -162.5 |
S1 | 44.35 | 44.355 | 42.86 | 44.632 | 0 | 44.668 |
distance | -234.2 | -181.5 | -446.1 | -177.5 | 0 | -341.3 |
S2 | 43.228 | 43.519 | 40.501 | 43.858 | 0 | 42.88 |
TV | 79,785 | 74,216 | 275,458 | 38,261 | 0 | 79,757 |
50MA | 56.215 | 55.746 | 55.264 | 0 | 54.803 | |
200MA | 65.522 | 65.421 | 65.327 | 0 | 65.23 | |
ATR | 2.5363 | 2.4084 | 2.3752 | 2.4964 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- We can see that the PP levels have expanded again so we will have a bigger likelihood of having a small move in today’s session.
- DR2 and WR2 are around the same level
- DS2 and WR1 are almost exactly at the same level
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- On the support side we have the Daily 45.25 not far off
- Weekly at 42.50
- On the resistance side we have Daily 49.80
- Weekly 54 level
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- On the 4H chart we can see that we bounced off the 45.25 and then got stopped at UKC at the 47.90-ish level
- Then we returned to the 50MA and VWAP mean at 45.75 level which is also the 30 50MA and 200MA level
- Interesting to see how the market reacts to these levels
- Then we returned to the 50MA and VWAP mean at 45.75 level which is also the 30 50MA and 200MA level
- On the 4H chart we can see that we bounced off the 45.25 and then got stopped at UKC at the 47.90-ish level
- How far away are we from technical levels?
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | Daily | 49.8 | 400 |
R5 | DR2 | 49.7 | 390 |
R4 | WR2 | 49.423 | 362.3 |
R3 | DR1 | 48.081 | 228.1 |
R2 | WR1 | 47.321 | 152.1 |
R1 | DPP | 46.293 | 49.3 |
CURRENT | 45.8 | ||
S1 | Daily | 45.25 | -55 |
S2 | WPP | 44.962 | -83.8 |
S3 | DS1 | 44.668 | -113.2 |
S4 | DS2 | 42.88 | -292 |
S5 | WS1 | 42.86 | -294 |
S6 | Weekly | 42.5 | -330 |
Current | 45.8 | |
Price | ||
Daily | Price | Distance |
50MA | 54.803 | 900 |
200MA | 65.23 | 1,943 |
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- We continued the pullback down and bounced off the 45.60 level and then made a swing high to 46.30 level to drop back further and are now testing the 45.60 again which is also the 30M 50MA and 200MA area and 4H 50MA and VWAP mean area
- So let’s see if this level holds
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- 2.4964
- We increased a bit which is explained by the big move we had yesterday
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- I will wait and see if this support level can hold. If not then I’ll be looking for a swing reversal at around the 45.25 level perhaps.
- If we do hold this level and we move higher then I’ll be looking for that swing reversal at the WR1 47.321 level.
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take Swing Reversal trades
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- T1 was during AS
- Win 24.5 ticks
- After London open we moved towards the LKC and I am waiting to see if we will reject this level so that I can take a swing reversal long
- This is also the 4H 50MA level so we might see support holding here
- TV is definitely higher around this level
- Spread is jumping from 34 to 40+
- We closed the 5M bar very bullish but since we are in the middle of the KC I can’t take a position
- Even though we had a very bullish candle we didn’t follow-through on the move and are still below the 1.0 SD
- We just started testing the UKC and it looks like we are being pushed back but let’s wait and see how this closes
- T2
- It closed very bearish and I took a Swing Reversal short but quickly covered at 1 tick profit since PA was behaving so erratic
- I could have pocketed more
- T2
- PA moved down to VWAP mean and immediately moved back up and has a narrow trading range now between 45.80 and 46.05
- It looks like we might have BO from UKC
- Normally I would be looking to take a long position here but I promised myself to only look for Swing Reversal plays and that’s what I am going to do. This might fail and I might get my opportunity. Let’s wait and see.
- I could have taken a Swing Reversal Short position after we closed with an indecision candle after the rally but I didn’t. Partly because I was studying and not looking at the screen. I missed my optimal window and will not hop on board anyway.
- Glad I didn’t hop on because PA reversed again
- I believe it is probable that we will fail at previous swing high (because we are also nearing the DPP) and then roll over giving me my swing reversal short opportunity
- And we didn’t fail we bounced off the UKC and continued higher testing the DPP 46.293 which is also the 5M 200MA
- T3
- Win 3.3 ticks
- T4
- Win 0.6 ticks
- PA at the op formed what looks like a triangle formation with the apex pushed together buy the UKC/VWAP mean and the DPP/200MA
- And we just made a move to possibly BO from DPP 46.293
- 7pm
- Started to feel really tired and unable to concentrate
- I got up fairly early and am fasting today as well so should not feel so tired I think but yet I am… I will grant myself a short break and return to studying my book.
- I went downstairs and walked 5 floors up and then put away some clothes and sweeped the living room floor and feel good now.
- Started to feel really tired and unable to concentrate
- I believe we are in an uptrend. We made bigger upswings and don’t have resistance on the 30M for another 30 ticks so we might see an exhausted move up to the 30M UKC and then a possible rollover which I can trade.
- Good thing I didn’t short the market we broke through UKC
- I’m done for today.
- T1 was during AS
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal Long
- Indecision candle in the 2.0 SD outside LKC
- Almost at the 30M 2.0 SD
- Entry
- 45.734
- Indecision candle in the 2.0 SD outside LKC
- Swing Reversal Long
- SL
- 45.655
- below the lowest candle wick
- 45.655
- TP
- 45.828
- Few ticks below the 50MA which is also just below the 1.0 SD
- 45.828
- Trade Management
- TP got hit
- Win 24.5 ticks
- TP got hit
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal Short
- Bearish candle with long upper wick on the 5M 1.0 SD on the 30M
- Entry
- 45.979
- Swing Reversal Short
- SL
- 46.085
- TP
- 45.811
- Trade Management
- Closed at 45.971
- Win 0.8 ticks
- I could have let it go which I should have because we dropped to the VWAP mean. However, I was unsure due to KC being so narrow and a big bullish candle at previous swing low
- Why? What do I see?
- T3
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal Short
- We had overextend above the UKC and formed a very bearish candle at the DPP 46.293 5M200MA level which is also the 30M 2.0 SD level and I took a short after the 5M candle close
- Entry
- 46.298
- SL
- Soft SL above the upper wick of swing high
- TP
- 46.174
- Trade Management
- Covered at 46.265
- Win 3.3 ticks
- Aftermath
- I could have pocketed more if I stick with the trade at least till PA hit UKC but I am happy with taking some profits since I am still learning to be confident in taking these trades. And we did just had a rally so thought fade scalping would be good.
- Why? What do I see?
- T4
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal Short
- Same as T3
- Entry
- 46.240
- SL
- 46.358
- Above the wick
- 46.358
- TP
- 46.166
- Trade Management
- Covered quickly at 46.234 because PA was hesitating a bit too long before it actually dropped.
- Win 0.6 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
Daily Report Card
- Only take Swing Reversal trades
- I did well only taking these trades. It made me feel calmer to just focus on one thing and be ‘on alert’ when PA behaved in way in line with my setup. I am going to focus on this setup and become a master in it. While doing this I will collect data on other setups as well and write playbooks everyday.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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