Bear Market Trader | Trade Journal on day trading the WTI crude oil market
oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trading, daytrading, trade journal, journaling, trade plan, commodities, playbook, one good trade, becoming a CPT, consistently profitable trader,
post-template-default,single,single-post,postid-1802,single-format-standard,vcwb,bridge,ajax_fade,page_not_loaded,,side_area_uncovered_from_content,qode-theme-ver-9.5,hide_inital_sticky,wpb-js-composer js-comp-ver-4.12,vc_responsive

01032018 Trade Plan — DPP breakout

Daily Report Card

01032018 Trade Plan — DPP breakout

01032018 Trade Plan — DPP breakout

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeSunMonTueWedThu
Beers night before1041000
Hours sleep69868.5
Sleep well?13323
Neg­a­tive thoughts?11111
Exer­cise yester(to)day11113
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours001 espres­so spread over 2 hoursmorn­ing espres­so, after­noon big hot chocolate
Inter­mit­tent fastingnononoyesyes
Water 2.2L bottles22222
Time bed yesterday04:3002:0006:0002:0010:00

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • My fin­ger still hurts and will make an appoint­ment today to go see a doc­tor in the next few days 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good because I start­ed to get more active again. I bought a fit­bit to track my progress and so far I’m lik­ing it. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • Yes­ter­day we had a big up day. We moved from DS2 44.632 through WPP 44.962 all the way through DPP 45.633, DR1 46.407, and found resis­tance at WR1 47.321 / DR2 47.408 levels.
    • On the dai­ly we moved up to the 1.0 SD
    • On the 4H we touched the UKC and then moved back down to the 50MA so let’s see if we can hold this as support
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • What does the crowd think?
      • Accord­ing to yesterday
        • All sen­ti­ments is 61% bullish
        • Last week 63% bullish
        • Last 3 days 68% bullish
        • Sen­ti­ment has def­i­nite­ly turned more bull­ish so we might actu­al­ly see more downside.
      • Accord­ing to today
        • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
        • Last week 61% bullish
        • Last 3 days 62% bullish
        • We went down in bull­ish­ness a bit
    • High 1.14968
    • Low 1.13252
    • Close 1.13442
    • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 63.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.71 to 1. The per­cent­age of traders net-long is now its high­est since Dec 12 when EURUSD trad­ed near 1.13724. The num­ber of traders net-long is 47.7% high­er than yes­ter­day and 18.4% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 32.2% low­er than yes­ter­day and 19.6% low­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
  • Gold
    • High 1288.70
    • Low 1278.87
    • Close 1284.17
    • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 76.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.31 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 0.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 5.5% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 5.0% high­er than yes­ter­day and 15.0% high­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yes­ter­day and com­pared with last week. Recent changes in sen­ti­ment warn that the cur­rent Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse high­er despite the fact traders remain net-long.
    • Gold Sen­ti­ment Sug­gests a Bull­ish Bias Despite Net-Long Positions

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Report com­ing out today
  • EIA report
    • Report com­ing out tomor­row. Fore­cast ‑2.333M.
  • Geopol­i­tics and the head­lines of today?
    • Iran Boosts Gaso­line Pro­duc­tion To Insu­late From U.S. Sanctions
      • Iran is clos­er to achiev­ing self-suf­fi­cien­cy in gaso­line by rais­ing its nation­al pro­duc­tion capac­i­ty to more than 100 mil­lion liters dai­ly, Iran­ian media report.
    • For Shana­han, a very pub­lic debut in Trump’s cabinet
      • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Patrick Shana­han was thrust into the spot­light dur­ing his debut as act­ing U.S. defense sec­re­tary on Wednes­day, sit­ting next to Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump as he pub­licly dis­par­aged Shana­han’s pre­de­ces­sor, lam­pooned the war in Afghanistan and called Syr­ia a land of “sand” and “death.”
    • Nige­ria Boosts Oil Pro­duc­tion As OPEC Cuts Begin
      • Days before OPEC’s pro­duc­tion cuts start­ed on Jan­u­ary 1, France’s Total had start­ed up oil pro­duc­tion from Nigeria’s ultra-deep­wa­ter oil field Egi­na, which is expect­ed to pro­duce 200,000 bpd at peak output.
    • Thai Nation­al Tech Devel­op­ment Cen­ter to Intro­duce Blockchain in Voting
      • The Nation­al Elec­tron­ics and Com­put­er Tech­nol­o­gy Cen­ter (NECTEC) of Thai­land has devel­oped blockchain tech­nol­o­gy for e‑voting, the Bangkok Post reports on Jan. 2.
    • Sau­di Ara­bia may cut Feb­ru­ary heavy crude prices to Asia
      • SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Top oil exporter Sau­di Ara­bia is expect­ed to cut Feb­ru­ary prices for heav­ier crude grades sold to Asia due to weak­er fuel oil mar­gins, respon­dents to a Reuters sur­vey said on Thursday.
    • Iraq’s Oil Exports Jump In December
      • Iraq’s oil exports jumped in Decem­ber com­pared to Novem­ber, as exports from the south­ern ports at Bas­ra hit a record high and exports from the north­ern Kirkuk fields increased after a slow ten­ta­tive resump­tion in Novem­ber fol­low­ing a year-long hiatus.
    • Oil Is At The Mer­cy Of Finan­cial Markets
      • The price gains are not entire­ly con­vinc­ing. WTI and Brent post­ed strong gains, each up more than 3 per­cent by mid­day in New York, but come large­ly after U.S. equi­ty mar­kets shook off an ear­li­er bout of pessimism.
    • Oil Prices Rise As Sau­di Oil Exports Plummet
      • Sau­di Arabia’s oil exports plum­met­ed in the last month of 2018, reas­sur­ing oil mar­kets that OPEC’s de fac­to leader may have enough for­ti­tude to car­ry the water of the car­tel in low­er­ing glob­al oil inventories.
    • No progress toward end­ing U.S. shut­down in Trump meet­ing with lawmakers
      • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — No agree­ment came out of a meet­ing between U.S. con­gres­sion­al lead­ers and Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump on Wednes­day to end a par­tial gov­ern­ment shut­down now in its 12th day as the pres­i­dent stuck to his demand for $5 bil­lion in bor­der wall fund­ing fierce­ly opposed by Democrats.
    • Equi­ty Fund CEO Rec­om­mends to Steer Clear of Cryp­to, Advis­es to Focus on ‘Basic Goods’
      • The CEO of invest­ment house Gate­way Part­ners, is shun­ning Bit­coin (BTC) and cryp­tocur­ren­cy in favor of more tra­di­tion­al invest­ment strate­gies, Asia-focused busi­ness pub­li­ca­tion Nikkei Asian Review report­ed on Jan. 2.
    • Trump gives no timetable for Syr­ia exit; wants to pro­tect Kurds
      • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — U.S. Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump said on Wednes­day the Unit­ed States would get out of Syr­ia slow­ly “over a peri­od of time” and would pro­tect the U.S.-backed Kur­dish fight­ers in the coun­try as Wash­ing­ton draws down troops.
  • Addi­tion­al OPEC news
    • Nope

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

   12/2712/2812/24 — 12/2812/311/11/2
Pip move234.2181.5446.1177.50341.3
50MA56.21555.746   55.264054.803
200MA65.52265.421   65.327065.23
ATR2.53632.4084   2.37522.4964
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • We can see that the PP lev­els have expand­ed again so we will have a big­ger like­li­hood of hav­ing a small move in today’s session.
    • DR2 and WR2 are around the same level
    • DS2 and WR1 are almost exact­ly at the same level
  • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
    • On the sup­port side we have the Dai­ly 45.25 not far off
    • Week­ly at 42.50
    • On the resis­tance side we have Dai­ly 49.80
    • Week­ly 54 level
  • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
    • On the 4H chart we can see that we bounced off the 45.25 and then got stopped at UKC at the 47.90-ish level
      • Then we returned to the 50MA and VWAP mean at 45.75 lev­el which is also the 30 50MA and 200MA level
        • Inter­est­ing to see how the mar­ket reacts to these levels
  • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
CURRENT   45.8   

  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • We con­tin­ued the pull­back down and bounced off the 45.60 lev­el and then made a swing high to 46.30 lev­el to drop back fur­ther and are now test­ing the 45.60 again which is also the 30M 50MA and 200MA area and 4H 50MA and VWAP mean area
    • So let’s see if this lev­el holds
  • ATR
    • What is the ATR on the daily?
      • Is it increasing/decreasing?
      • 2.4964
        • We increased a bit which is explained by the big move we had yesterday

Trade Plan

  • I will wait and see if this sup­port lev­el can hold. If not then I’ll be look­ing for a swing rever­sal at around the 45.25 lev­el perhaps.
  • If we do hold this lev­el and we move high­er then I’ll be look­ing for that swing rever­sal at the WR1 47.321 level. 

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Only take Swing Rever­sal trades

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • T1 was dur­ing AS
      • Win 24.5 ticks
    • After Lon­don open we moved towards the LKC and I am wait­ing to see if we will reject this lev­el so that I can take a swing rever­sal long
      • This is also the 4H 50MA lev­el so we might see sup­port hold­ing here
      • TV is def­i­nite­ly high­er around this level
      • Spread is jump­ing from 34 to 40+
      • We closed the 5M bar very bull­ish but since we are in the mid­dle of the KC I can’t take a position
      • Even though we had a very bull­ish can­dle we didn’t fol­low-through on the move and are still below the 1.0 SD
    • We just start­ed test­ing the UKC and it looks like we are being pushed back but let’s wait and see how this closes
      • T2
        • It closed very bear­ish and I took a Swing Rever­sal short but quick­ly cov­ered at 1 tick prof­it since PA was behav­ing so erratic
        • I could have pock­et­ed more
    • PA moved down to VWAP mean and imme­di­ate­ly moved back up and has a nar­row trad­ing range now between 45.80 and 46.05
    • It looks like we might have BO from UKC
      • Nor­mal­ly I would be look­ing to take a long posi­tion here but I promised myself to only look for Swing Rever­sal plays and that’s what I am going to do. This might fail and I might get my oppor­tu­ni­ty. Let’s wait and see. 
    • I could have tak­en a Swing Rever­sal Short posi­tion after we closed with an inde­ci­sion can­dle after the ral­ly but I didn’t. Part­ly because I was study­ing and not look­ing at the screen. I missed my opti­mal win­dow and will not hop on board anyway.
      • Glad I didn’t hop on because PA reversed again
    • I believe it is prob­a­ble that we will fail at pre­vi­ous swing high (because we are also near­ing the DPP) and then roll over giv­ing me my swing rever­sal short opportunity
    • And we didn’t fail we bounced off the UKC and con­tin­ued high­er test­ing the DPP 46.293 which is also the 5M 200MA
    • T3
      • Win 3.3 ticks
    • T4
      • Win 0.6 ticks
    • PA at the op formed what looks like a tri­an­gle for­ma­tion with the apex pushed togeth­er buy the UKC/VWAP mean and the DPP/200MA
      • And we just made a move to pos­si­bly BO from DPP 46.293
    • 7pm
      • Start­ed to feel real­ly tired and unable to concentrate
        • I got up fair­ly ear­ly and am fast­ing today as well so should not feel so tired I think but yet I am… I will grant myself a short break and return to study­ing my book. 
        • I went down­stairs and walked 5 floors up and then put away some clothes and sweeped the liv­ing room floor and feel good now.
    • I believe we are in an uptrend. We made big­ger upswings and don’t have resis­tance on the 30M for anoth­er 30 ticks so we might see an exhaust­ed move up to the 30M UKC and then a pos­si­ble rollover which I can trade. 
    • Good thing I didn’t short the mar­ket we broke through UKC
    • I’m done for today. 

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal Long
        • Inde­ci­sion can­dle in the 2.0 SD out­side LKC
          • Almost at the 30M 2.0 SD
          • Entry
            • 45.734
    • SL
      • 45.655
        • below the low­est can­dle wick
    • TP
      • 45.828
        • Few ticks below the 50MA which is also just below the 1.0 SD
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • TP got hit
        • Win 24.5 ticks
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal Short
        • Bear­ish can­dle with long upper wick on the 5M 1.0 SD on the 30M
        • Entry
          • 45.979
    • SL
      • 46.085
    • TP
      • 45.811
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Closed at 45.971
      • Win 0.8 ticks
      • I could have let it go which I should have because we dropped to the VWAP mean. How­ev­er, I was unsure due to KC being so nar­row and a big bull­ish can­dle at pre­vi­ous swing low
  • T3
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal Short
      • We had overex­tend above the UKC and formed a very bear­ish can­dle at the DPP 46.293 5M200MA lev­el which is also the 30M 2.0 SD lev­el and I took a short after the 5M can­dle close
      • Entry
        • 46.298
    • SL
      • Soft SL above the upper wick of swing high
    • TP
      • 46.174
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at 46.265
      • Win 3.3 ticks
      • After­math
        • I could have pock­et­ed more if I stick with the trade at least till PA hit UKC but I am hap­py with tak­ing some prof­its since I am still learn­ing to be con­fi­dent in tak­ing these trades. And we did just had a ral­ly so thought fade scalp­ing would be good. 
  • T4
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal Short
      • Same as T3
      • Entry
        • 46.240
    • SL
      • 46.358
        • Above the wick
    • TP
      • 46.166
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered quick­ly at 46.234 because PA was hes­i­tat­ing a bit too long before it actu­al­ly dropped.
      • Win 0.6 ticks

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Only take Swing Rever­sal trades
    • I did well only tak­ing these trades. It made me feel calmer to just focus on one thing and be ‘on alert’ when PA behaved in way in line with my set­up. I am going to focus on this set­up and become a mas­ter in it. While doing this I will col­lect data on oth­er setups as well and write play­books everyday. 


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

No Comments

Post A Comment

The maximum upload file size: 128 MB. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Drop files here