01032018 Trade Plan — DPP breakout

03 Jan 01032018 Trade Plan — DPP breakout

01032018 Trade Plan — DPP breakout

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu
	12/30	12/31	1/1	1/2	1/3
Beers night before	10	4	10	0	0
Hours sleep	6	9	8	6	8.5
Sleep well?	1	3	3	2	3
Mela­tonin	0	0.5x	0	1x	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	1	1	1	1	1
Exer­cise yester(to)day	1	1	1	1	3
Grat­i­tude	5	5	5	5	5
Joy	5	5	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	1	1	1
Focus	1	3	2	2	3
Cof­fees today	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	0	0	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	morn­ing espres­so, after­noon big hot chocolate
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	no	no	yes	yes
Water 2.2L bottles	2	2	2	2	2
Vit­a­mins	no	no	no	yes	yes
Time bed yesterday	04:30	02:00	06:00	02:00	10:00

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • My fin­ger still hurts and will make an appoint­ment today to go see a doc­tor in the next few days 
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good because I start­ed to get more active again. I bought a fit­bit to track my progress and so far I’m lik­ing it. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yesterday?
  • Yes­ter­day we had a big up day. We moved from DS2 44.632 through WPP 44.962 all the way through DPP 45.633, DR1 46.407, and found resis­tance at WR1 47.321 / DR2 47.408 levels.
  • On the dai­ly we moved up to the 1.0 SD
  • On the 4H we touched the UKC and then moved back down to the 50MA so let’s see if we can hold this as support
• What is the mar­ket sentiment?
  • What does the crowd think?
    • Accord­ing to investing.com yesterday
      • All sen­ti­ments is 61% bullish
      • Last week 63% bullish
      • Last 3 days 68% bullish
      • Sen­ti­ment has def­i­nite­ly turned more bull­ish so we might actu­al­ly see more downside.
    • Accord­ing to investing.com today
      • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
      • Last week 61% bullish
      • Last 3 days 62% bullish
      • We went down in bull­ish­ness a bit
• EURUSD
  • High 1.14968
  • Low 1.13252
  • Close 1.13442
  • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 63.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.71 to 1. The per­cent­age of traders net-long is now its high­est since Dec 12 when EURUSD trad­ed near 1.13724. The num­ber of traders net-long is 47.7% high­er than yes­ter­day and 18.4% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 32.2% low­er than yes­ter­day and 19.6% low­er from last week.
  • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
  • BEARISH BIAS
• Gold
  • High 1288.70
  • Low 1278.87
  • Close 1284.17
  • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 76.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.31 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 0.5% high­er than yes­ter­day and 5.5% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 5.0% high­er than yes­ter­day and 15.0% high­er from last week.
  • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yes­ter­day and com­pared with last week. Recent changes in sen­ti­ment warn that the cur­rent Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse high­er despite the fact traders remain net-long.
  • Gold Sen­ti­ment Sug­gests a Bull­ish Bias Despite Net-Long Positions

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Report com­ing out today
• EIA report
  • Report com­ing out tomor­row. Fore­cast ‑2.333M.
• Geopol­i­tics and the head­lines of today?
  • Iran Boosts Gaso­line Pro­duc­tion To Insu­late From U.S. Sanctions
    • Iran is clos­er to achiev­ing self-suf­fi­cien­cy in gaso­line by rais­ing its nation­al pro­duc­tion capac­i­ty to more than 100 mil­lion liters dai­ly, Iran­ian media report.
  • For Shana­han, a very pub­lic debut in Trump’s cabinet
    • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Patrick Shana­han was thrust into the spot­light dur­ing his debut as act­ing U.S. defense sec­re­tary on Wednes­day, sit­ting next to Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump as he pub­licly dis­par­aged Shana­han’s pre­de­ces­sor, lam­pooned the war in Afghanistan and called Syr­ia a land of “sand” and “death.”
  • Nige­ria Boosts Oil Pro­duc­tion As OPEC Cuts Begin
    • Days before OPEC’s pro­duc­tion cuts start­ed on Jan­u­ary 1, France’s Total had start­ed up oil pro­duc­tion from Nigeria’s ultra-deep­wa­ter oil field Egi­na, which is expect­ed to pro­duce 200,000 bpd at peak output.
  • Thai Nation­al Tech Devel­op­ment Cen­ter to Intro­duce Blockchain in Voting
    • The Nation­al Elec­tron­ics and Com­put­er Tech­nol­o­gy Cen­ter (NECTEC) of Thai­land has devel­oped blockchain tech­nol­o­gy for e‑voting, the Bangkok Post reports on Jan. 2.
  • Sau­di Ara­bia may cut Feb­ru­ary heavy crude prices to Asia
    • SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Top oil exporter Sau­di Ara­bia is expect­ed to cut Feb­ru­ary prices for heav­ier crude grades sold to Asia due to weak­er fuel oil mar­gins, respon­dents to a Reuters sur­vey said on Thursday.
  • Iraq’s Oil Exports Jump In December
    • Iraq’s oil exports jumped in Decem­ber com­pared to Novem­ber, as exports from the south­ern ports at Bas­ra hit a record high and exports from the north­ern Kirkuk fields increased after a slow ten­ta­tive resump­tion in Novem­ber fol­low­ing a year-long hiatus.
  • Oil Is At The Mer­cy Of Finan­cial Markets
    • The price gains are not entire­ly con­vinc­ing. WTI and Brent post­ed strong gains, each up more than 3 per­cent by mid­day in New York, but come large­ly after U.S. equi­ty mar­kets shook off an ear­li­er bout of pessimism.
  • Oil Prices Rise As Sau­di Oil Exports Plummet
    • Sau­di Arabia’s oil exports plum­met­ed in the last month of 2018, reas­sur­ing oil mar­kets that OPEC’s de fac­to leader may have enough for­ti­tude to car­ry the water of the car­tel in low­er­ing glob­al oil inventories.
  • No progress toward end­ing U.S. shut­down in Trump meet­ing with lawmakers
    • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — No agree­ment came out of a meet­ing between U.S. con­gres­sion­al lead­ers and Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump on Wednes­day to end a par­tial gov­ern­ment shut­down now in its 12th day as the pres­i­dent stuck to his demand for $5 bil­lion in bor­der wall fund­ing fierce­ly opposed by Democrats.
  • Equi­ty Fund CEO Rec­om­mends to Steer Clear of Cryp­to, Advis­es to Focus on ‘Basic Goods’
    • The CEO of invest­ment house Gate­way Part­ners, is shun­ning Bit­coin (BTC) and cryp­tocur­ren­cy in favor of more tra­di­tion­al invest­ment strate­gies, Asia-focused busi­ness pub­li­ca­tion Nikkei Asian Review report­ed on Jan. 2.
  • Trump gives no timetable for Syr­ia exit; wants to pro­tect Kurds
    • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — U.S. Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump said on Wednes­day the Unit­ed States would get out of Syr­ia slow­ly “over a peri­od of time” and would pro­tect the U.S.-backed Kur­dish fight­ers in the coun­try as Wash­ing­ton draws down troops.
• Addi­tion­al OPEC news
  • Nope

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

	Thu	Fri	Week	Mon	Tue	Wed
	12/27	12/28	12/24 — 12/28	12/31	1/1	1/2
High	46.79	46.313	47.064	46.634	0	47.918
Low	44.448	44.498	42.603	44.859	0	44.505
Close	45.473	45.19	45.219	45.405	0	46.457
Pip move	234.2	181.5	446.1	177.5	0	341.3
PP	45.57	45.334	44.962	45.633	0	46.293
dis­tance	112.2	83.6	235.9	77.4	0	178.8
R1	46.692	46.17	47.321	46.407	0	48.081
dis­tance	234.2	181.5	446.1	177.5	0	341.3
R2	47.912	47.149	49.423	47.408	0	49.706
dis­tance	-122	-97.9	-210.2	-100.1	0	-162.5
S1	44.35	44.355	42.86	44.632	0	44.668
dis­tance	-234.2	-181.5	-446.1	-177.5	0	-341.3
S2	43.228	43.519	40.501	43.858	0	42.88
TV	79,785	74,216	275,458	38,261	0	79,757
50MA	56.215	55.746		55.264	0	54.803
200MA	65.522	65.421		65.327	0	65.23
ATR	2.5363	2.4084		2.3752	2.4964

• What can we tell from the PP levels?
  • We can see that the PP lev­els have expand­ed again so we will have a big­ger like­li­hood of hav­ing a small move in today’s session.
  • DR2 and WR2 are around the same level
  • DS2 and WR1 are almost exact­ly at the same level
• Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
  • On the sup­port side we have the Dai­ly 45.25 not far off
  • Week­ly at 42.50
  • On the resis­tance side we have Dai­ly 49.80
  • Week­ly 54 level
• What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
  • On the 4H chart we can see that we bounced off the 45.25 and then got stopped at UKC at the 47.90-ish level
    • Then we returned to the 50MA and VWAP mean at 45.75 lev­el which is also the 30 50MA and 200MA level
      • Inter­est­ing to see how the mar­ket reacts to these levels
• How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?

S/R	kind	lev­el	Dis­tance
R6	Dai­ly	49.8	400
R5	DR2	49.7	390
R4	WR2	49.423	362.3
R3	DR1	48.081	228.1
R2	WR1	47.321	152.1
R1	DPP	46.293	49.3
CURRENT		45.8
S1	Dai­ly	45.25	-55
S2	WPP	44.962	-83.8
S3	DS1	44.668	-113.2
S4	DS2	42.88	-292
S5	WS1	42.86	-294
S6	Week­ly	42.5	-330

Cur­rent	45.8
Price
Dai­ly	Price	Dis­tance
50MA	54.803	900
200MA	65.23	1,943

• What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
  • We con­tin­ued the pull­back down and bounced off the 45.60 lev­el and then made a swing high to 46.30 lev­el to drop back fur­ther and are now test­ing the 45.60 again which is also the 30M 50MA and 200MA area and 4H 50MA and VWAP mean area
  • So let’s see if this lev­el holds
• ATR
  • What is the ATR on the daily?
    • Is it increasing/decreasing?
    • 2.4964
      • We increased a bit which is explained by the big move we had yesterday

Trade Plan

• I will wait and see if this sup­port lev­el can hold. If not then I’ll be look­ing for a swing rever­sal at around the 45.25 lev­el perhaps.
• If we do hold this lev­el and we move high­er then I’ll be look­ing for that swing rever­sal at the WR1 47.321 level. 

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Only take Swing Rever­sal trades

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • T1 was dur­ing AS
    • Win 24.5 ticks
  • After Lon­don open we moved towards the LKC and I am wait­ing to see if we will reject this lev­el so that I can take a swing rever­sal long
    • This is also the 4H 50MA lev­el so we might see sup­port hold­ing here
    • TV is def­i­nite­ly high­er around this level
    • Spread is jump­ing from 34 to 40+
    • We closed the 5M bar very bull­ish but since we are in the mid­dle of the KC I can’t take a position
    • Even though we had a very bull­ish can­dle we didn’t fol­low-through on the move and are still below the 1.0 SD
  • We just start­ed test­ing the UKC and it looks like we are being pushed back but let’s wait and see how this closes
    • T2
      • It closed very bear­ish and I took a Swing Rever­sal short but quick­ly cov­ered at 1 tick prof­it since PA was behav­ing so erratic
      • I could have pock­et­ed more
  • PA moved down to VWAP mean and imme­di­ate­ly moved back up and has a nar­row trad­ing range now between 45.80 and 46.05
  • It looks like we might have BO from UKC
    • Nor­mal­ly I would be look­ing to take a long posi­tion here but I promised myself to only look for Swing Rever­sal plays and that’s what I am going to do. This might fail and I might get my oppor­tu­ni­ty. Let’s wait and see. 
  • I could have tak­en a Swing Rever­sal Short posi­tion after we closed with an inde­ci­sion can­dle after the ral­ly but I didn’t. Part­ly because I was study­ing and not look­ing at the screen. I missed my opti­mal win­dow and will not hop on board anyway.
    • Glad I didn’t hop on because PA reversed again
  • I believe it is prob­a­ble that we will fail at pre­vi­ous swing high (because we are also near­ing the DPP) and then roll over giv­ing me my swing rever­sal short opportunity
  • And we didn’t fail we bounced off the UKC and con­tin­ued high­er test­ing the DPP 46.293 which is also the 5M 200MA
  • T3
    • Win 3.3 ticks
  • T4
    • Win 0.6 ticks
  • PA at the op formed what looks like a tri­an­gle for­ma­tion with the apex pushed togeth­er buy the UKC/VWAP mean and the DPP/200MA
    • And we just made a move to pos­si­bly BO from DPP 46.293
  • 7pm
    • Start­ed to feel real­ly tired and unable to concentrate
      • I got up fair­ly ear­ly and am fast­ing today as well so should not feel so tired I think but yet I am… I will grant myself a short break and return to study­ing my book. 
      • I went down­stairs and walked 5 floors up and then put away some clothes and sweeped the liv­ing room floor and feel good now.
  • I believe we are in an uptrend. We made big­ger upswings and don’t have resis­tance on the 30M for anoth­er 30 ticks so we might see an exhaust­ed move up to the 30M UKC and then a pos­si­ble rollover which I can trade. 
  • Good thing I didn’t short the mar­ket we broke through UKC
  • I’m done for today. 

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal Long
      • Inde­ci­sion can­dle in the 2.0 SD out­side LKC
        • Almost at the 30M 2.0 SD
        • Entry
          • 45.734
  • SL
    • 45.655
      • below the low­est can­dle wick
  • TP
    • 45.828
      • Few ticks below the 50MA which is also just below the 1.0 SD
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • TP got hit
      • Win 24.5 ticks

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal Short
      • Bear­ish can­dle with long upper wick on the 5M 1.0 SD on the 30M
      • Entry
        • 45.979
  • SL
    • 46.085
  • TP
    • 45.811
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Closed at 45.971
    • Win 0.8 ticks
    • I could have let it go which I should have because we dropped to the VWAP mean. How­ev­er, I was unsure due to KC being so nar­row and a big bull­ish can­dle at pre­vi­ous swing low

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal Short
    • We had overex­tend above the UKC and formed a very bear­ish can­dle at the DPP 46.293 5M200MA lev­el which is also the 30M 2.0 SD lev­el and I took a short after the 5M can­dle close
    • Entry
      • 46.298
  • SL
    • Soft SL above the upper wick of swing high
  • TP
    • 46.174
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 46.265
    • Win 3.3 ticks
    • After­math
      • I could have pock­et­ed more if I stick with the trade at least till PA hit UKC but I am hap­py with tak­ing some prof­its since I am still learn­ing to be con­fi­dent in tak­ing these trades. And we did just had a ral­ly so thought fade scalp­ing would be good. 

• T4
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal Short
    • Same as T3
    • Entry
      • 46.240
  • SL
    • 46.358
      • Above the wick
  • TP
    • 46.166
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered quick­ly at 46.234 because PA was hes­i­tat­ing a bit too long before it actu­al­ly dropped.
    • Win 0.6 ticks

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?

Dai­ly Report Card

• Only take Swing Rever­sal trades
  • I did well only tak­ing these trades. It made me feel calmer to just focus on one thing and be ‘on alert’ when PA behaved in way in line with my set­up. I am going to focus on this set­up and become a mas­ter in it. While doing this I will col­lect data on oth­er setups as well and write play­books everyday. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.