
05 Jan 01042019 Trade Plan — 4H UKC BO
01042019 Trade Plan
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri |
12/30 | 12/31 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 1/3 | 1/4 | |
Beers night before | 10 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hours sleep | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8.5 | 7 |
Sleep well? | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0.5x | 0 | 1x | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 0 | 0 | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | morning espresso, afternoon big hot chocolate | morning espresso, afternoon espresso |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | no | yes | yes | no |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | no | no | no | yes | yes | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 04:30 | 02:00 | 06:00 | 02:00 | 2200 | 2230 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I feel I am getting better incrementally. Today I will go to the hospital to make an appointment to have my finger checked out. Good thing I am being more active walking around etc.
- How do you feel?
- I feel good, just could be a little bit sharper. This is probably due to not having slept too well.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- We inched higher yesterday and then bounced down off the DPP 46.293 and traded higher back to swing high at WR1 47.321
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com yesterday
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 61% bullish
- Last 3 days 62% bullish
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 62% bullish
- Last 3 days 60% bullish
- We went down in bullishness a bit
- According to investing.com yesterday
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- High 1.14110
- Low 1.13097
- Close 1.13931
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 63.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.71 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Dec 12 when EURUSD traded near 1.13724. The number of traders net-long is 47.7% higher than yesterday and 18.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 32.2% lower than yesterday and 19.6% lower from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
- OUTLOOK BEARISH
- Gold
- High 1294.90
- Low 1284.30
- Close 1294.10
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 74.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.96 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.6% higher than yesterday and 1.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.9% lower than yesterday and 19.7% higher from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias.
- MIXED BIAS
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- -4.500M barrels
- EIA report
- EIA has forecast ‑3.086M but will come out later today so I will take not of that later on
- Geopolitics and the headlines of today?
- Ecuador president demands probe into predecessor’s oil projects
- QUITO (Reuters) — Ecuador’s President Lenin Moreno on Thursday asked the country’s prosecutor to probe $4.9 billion of oil-related infrastructure projects, alleging that the OPEC nation’s money was looted during the decade-long tenure of his leftist predecessor.
- China warnings signal Trump’s trade war finally hitting home
- ATLANTA/NEW YORK (Reuters) — Weak sales at Apple and Cargill, U.S. giants of technology and agriculture, may be the clearest sign yet that President Donald Trump’s quest to reset world trade carries costs at home and could isolate the United States as the increasingly fragile engine for global economic growth.
- Second referendum would only divide UK further: Brexit minister
- BERLIN (Reuters) — A second referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union would only exacerbate divisions among the British people, Brexit minister Stephen Barclay told a German newspaper.
- On first day in power, House Democrats challenge Trump to end shutdown
- WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Democrats wasted no time flexing their new power in the U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday by approving legislation backed by new Speaker Nancy Pelosi that would end a 13-day partial government shutdown, ignoring President Donald Trump’s demand for $5 billion for a border wall.
- Sharara Oil Filed Loses 8,500 Bpd To Looters
- The field, which normally yields some 315,000 barrels daily was seized by a group of local tribesmen and members of the Petroleum Facilities Guard in early December, which prompted the NOC to declare a force majeure on the field about a week later.
- Canada says 13 citizens detained in China since Huawei CFO arrest
- TORONTO (Reuters) — Canada said on Thursday that 13 of its citizens have been detained in China since Huawei Technologies Co [HWT.UL] Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou was arrested last month in Vancouver at the request of the United States.
- Oil stabilizes on China‑U.S. trade talks, OPEC cuts
- SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Oil prices steadied on Friday after China said it would hold talks with Washington on Jan. 7–8 aimed at solving trade disputes between the two world’s biggest economies.
- China and U.S. to hold trade talks in Beijing on January 7–8
- BEIJING (Reuters) — China and the United States will hold vice ministerial level trade talks in Beijing on Jan. 7–8, as the two sides look to end a dispute that is inflicting increasing pain on both economies and roiling global financial markets.
- Oil prices rebound, helped by weak dollar, Saudi supply cuts
- LONDON (Reuters) — Oil prices rebounded on Thursday after an early slide, helped by dollar weakness and signs of output cuts by the world’s top crude exporter Saudi Arabia that eased concerns about a glut.
- Brazil farm lobby wins as Bolsonaro grabs control over indigenous lands
- RIO DE JANEIRO/BRASILIA (Reuters) — New Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro issued an executive order on Wednesday making the Agriculture Ministry responsible for deciding on lands claimed by indigenous peoples, in a victory for agribusiness that will likely enrage environmentalists.
- Saudi Arabia may cut February heavy crude prices to Asia
- SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to cut February prices for heavier crude grades sold to Asia due to weaker fuel oil margins, respondents to a Reuters survey said on Thursday.
- Ecuador president demands probe into predecessor’s oil projects
- Additional OPEC news
- None at this moment
Intraday Technical Analysis
Week | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | |
12/24 — 12/28 | 12/31 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 1/3 | |
High | 47.064 | 46.634 | 0 | 47.918 | 47.647 |
Low | 42.603 | 44.859 | 0 | 44.505 | 45.536 |
Close | 45.219 | 45.405 | 0 | 46.457 | 46.979 |
Pip move | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 | 341.3 | 211.1 |
PP | 44.962 | 45.633 | 0 | 46.293 | 46.721 |
distance | 235.9 | 77.4 | 0 | 178.8 | 118.5 |
R1 | 47.321 | 46.407 | 0 | 48.081 | 47.906 |
distance | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 | 341.3 | 211.1 |
R2 | 49.423 | 47.408 | 0 | 49.706 | 48.832 |
distance | -210.2 | -100.1 | 0 | -162.5 | -92.6 |
S1 | 42.86 | 44.632 | 0 | 44.668 | 45.795 |
distance | -446.1 | -177.5 | 0 | -341.3 | -211.1 |
S2 | 40.501 | 43.858 | 0 | 42.88 | 44.61 |
TV | 275,458 | 38,261 | 0 | 79,757 | 85,113 |
50MA | 55.264 | 0 | 54.803 | 54.42 | |
200MA | 65.327 | 0 | 65.23 | 65.138 | |
ATR | 2.3752 | 2.4964 | 2.5136 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- The PP levels retraced about ⅔
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- We have the Daily resistance level at 49.80 and then we have the weekly at 54
- On the support side we have 45.25 on the Daily and then the 42.50 on the weekly
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- The 4H chart is showing that we are moving closer to the UKC in a more controlled fashion which tells me that the lower time frame uptrend is a strong one albeit a bit sluggish
- The 30M confirms this although we can see that the curve is bending over
- How far away are we from technical levels?
Current | 47.45 | |
Price | ||
Daily | Price | Distance |
50MA | 54.42 | 697 |
200MA | 65.138 | 1,769 |
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | Weekly | 54 | 655 |
R5 | Daily | 49.8 | 235 |
R4 | WR2 | 49.423 | 197.3 |
R3 | DR1 | 48.081 | 63.1 |
R2 | DR2 | 48.832 | 138.2 |
R1 | DR1 | 47.906 | 45.6 |
CURRENT | 47.45 | ||
S1 | WR1 | 47.321 | -12.9 |
S2 | DPP | 46.721 | -72.9 |
S3 | DS1 | 45.795 | -165.5 |
S4 | Daily | 45.25 | -220 |
S5 | WPP | 44.962 | -248.8 |
S6 | DS2 | 44.61 | -284 |
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- AS looks like we are continuing the move up in a sluggish uptrend that bounced off yesterday’s DPP and crossed today’s WR1 47.321
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- 2.5136
- ATR increased a little bit
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- I’ll be looking for swing reversals at the higher time frame levels
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take Swing Reversal plays
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- We basically bounced 3 times off of 46.80 level and never looked back
- We then broke through WR1 47.321 and DR1 at 47.906 with no real signs of slowing down
- We just hit the 4H UKC at 48.10 level and might be looking to reverse at this point. 5M has been on a uptrending tear so let’s see if we will hold or BO from this level
- I had the chance to take a swing reversal mean reversion trade but I didn’t because I hesitated. It’s actually more a scalp strategy at this point so extra caution is warranted.
- Man this is turning into a possible great opportunity but I can’t get on board because I missed my optimal entry. Damn.
- I’m going to wait for a failed swing high before getting in short
- Man this is turning into a possible great opportunity but I can’t get on board because I missed my optimal entry. Damn.
- We are attempting a swing high and I took a short at 5M 1.0 SD but covered quickly at 1 tick profit because we hadn’t closed the candle yet and even now it doesn’t look too bearish still so don’t feel too confident
- Luckily I covered since PA returned up and didn’t drop. Looks like the 5M VWAP mean might be holding still
- We are testing the 48.30 level again and might be looking to break
- We are into the 2.0 SD
- We didn’t break and abruptly had a sharp move down which enhances the feeling that we might see weakness here and roll over. However, if my entry rules aren’t met I am not allowed to take a position so I will stand here and watch PA
- I first thought this could be a complex pullback and then we could see a continuation to the uptrend but it still looks like it’s rolling over. Too bad for me it is trading in a range where my entry rules aren’t met
- We made a move up and are testing the 5M UKC into 30M 1.5 SD
- T2
- Win 1.7 ticks
- A possibly long entry could be after we drop on the 5M to the LKC which is about the 30M UKC level and wait for my entry rules to confirm
- I was wrong. We did drop to the 30M UKC but that is the 5M 50MA area and not the LKC
- We could drop further to the VWAP mean and find support
- Another short opportunity might be when we make another swing high on the 30M that fails
- NY just opened and we are in what might be a higher time frame pullback
- We dropped to 5M LKC which is also DR1 47.906 level
- We looked like we were gonna drop and I was tempted to take a short here but so happy I stuck to my plan. Price shot up 30 ticks. I know I know… hear you thinking why I didn’t go long well the reason is my entry criteria hadn’t been met yet so I was waiting for a confirmation on the 5M which never came. This is a pretty huge rejection of this level.
- Pa then consolidated at the 48.30 level before shooting up over the UKC and the DR2 48.832 but we might find resistance at this level
- We dropped back but unsure if this is a pullback or not
- We basically bounced 3 times off of 46.80 level and never looked back
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal Short
- 4H LKC touch
- Previous 5M swing high with bearish candle
- Second attempt swing high into 1.0 SD took an entry
- Entry
- 48.161
- Swing Reversal Short
- SL
- Soft stop above the wick of entry
- TP
- DR1 47.906
- Trade Management
- Covered quickly at 48.150
- Win 1.1 tick
- Luckily I covered since PA returned up and didn’t drop. Looks like the 5M VWAP mean might be holding still
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal Short
- We made a long upper wicked doji below the UKC and 30M shows we might be rolling over so took a short position right after the close
- Entry
- 48.331
- Swing Reversal Short
- SL
- Soft SL above the previous wick
- TP
- 47.943
- Trade Management
- Covered at 48.314 because I expected PA to drop immediately after such a candle probably at least to the VWAP mean but there was no such sharp move so was looking for an out and luckily was able to cover at 1.7 tick profit
- Aftermath
- PA did go up to test the UKC again so am happy I followed my instinct
- Another thing I did well was have a tighter mental stop just above the body of the previous candle because this would have broken the expected pattern
- PA did go up to test the UKC again so am happy I followed my instinct
- Why? What do I see?
Daily Report Card
- Only take Swing Reversal plays
- Yes I had the chance to take a few swing reversal fade scalps. Gotta think of a better name for these trades 🙂
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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