01042019 Trade Plan — 4H UKC BO

05 Jan 01042019 Trade Plan — 4H UKC BO

01042019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri
	12/30	12/31	1/1	1/2	1/3	1/4
Beers night before	10	4	10	0	0	0
Hours sleep	6	9	8	6	8.5	7
Sleep well?	1	3	3	2	3	2
Mela­tonin	0	0.5x	0	1x	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	1	1	1	1	1	2
Exer­cise yester(to)day	1	1	1	1	3	3
Grat­i­tude	5	5	5	5	5	5
Joy	5	5	5	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	1	1	1	1
Focus	1	3	2	2	3	2
Cof­fees today	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	0	0	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	morn­ing espres­so, after­noon big hot chocolate	morn­ing espres­so, after­noon espresso
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	no	no	yes	yes	no
Water 2.2L bottles	2	2	2	2	2	2
Vit­a­mins	no	no	no	yes	yes	yes
Time bed yesterday	04:30	02:00	06:00	02:00	2200	2230

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • I feel I am get­ting bet­ter incre­men­tal­ly. Today I will go to the hos­pi­tal to make an appoint­ment to have my fin­ger checked out. Good thing I am being more active walk­ing around etc.
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good, just could be a lit­tle bit sharp­er. This is prob­a­bly due to not hav­ing slept too well.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yesterday?
  • We inched high­er yes­ter­day and then bounced down off the DPP 46.293 and trad­ed high­er back to swing high at WR1 47.321
• What is the mar­ket sentiment?
  • What does the crowd think?
    • Accord­ing to investing.com yesterday
      • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
      • Last week 61% bullish
      • Last 3 days 62% bullish
    • Accord­ing to investing.com today
      • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
      • Last week 62% bullish
      • Last 3 days 60% bullish
      • We went down in bull­ish­ness a bit
• EURUSD
  • High 1.14110
  • Low 1.13097
  • Close 1.13931
  • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 63.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.71 to 1. The per­cent­age of traders net-long is now its high­est since Dec 12 when EURUSD trad­ed near 1.13724. The num­ber of traders net-long is 47.7% high­er than yes­ter­day and 18.4% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 32.2% low­er than yes­ter­day and 19.6% low­er from last week.
  • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
  • OUTLOOK BEARISH
• Gold
  • High 1294.90
  • Low 1284.30
  • Close 1294.10
  • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 74.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.96 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 1.6% high­er than yes­ter­day and 1.9% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 4.9% low­er than yes­ter­day and 19.7% high­er from last week.
  • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed Spot Gold trad­ing bias.
  • MIXED BIAS

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • -4.500M bar­rels
• EIA report
  • EIA has fore­cast ‑3.086M but will come out lat­er today so I will take not of that lat­er on
• Geopol­i­tics and the head­lines of today?
  • Ecuador pres­i­dent demands probe into pre­de­ces­sor’s oil projects
    • QUITO (Reuters) — Ecuador’s Pres­i­dent Lenin Moreno on Thurs­day asked the coun­try’s pros­e­cu­tor to probe $4.9 bil­lion of oil-relat­ed infra­struc­ture projects, alleg­ing that the OPEC nation’s mon­ey was loot­ed dur­ing the decade-long tenure of his left­ist predecessor.
  • Chi­na warn­ings sig­nal Trump’s trade war final­ly hit­ting home
    • ATLANTA/NEW YORK (Reuters) — Weak sales at Apple and Cargill, U.S. giants of tech­nol­o­gy and agri­cul­ture, may be the clear­est sign yet that Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump’s quest to reset world trade car­ries costs at home and could iso­late the Unit­ed States as the increas­ing­ly frag­ile engine for glob­al eco­nom­ic growth.
  • Sec­ond ref­er­en­dum would only divide UK fur­ther: Brex­it minister
    • BERLIN (Reuters) — A sec­ond ref­er­en­dum on Britain’s mem­ber­ship of the Euro­pean Union would only exac­er­bate divi­sions among the British peo­ple, Brex­it min­is­ter Stephen Bar­clay told a Ger­man newspaper.
  • On first day in pow­er, House Democ­rats chal­lenge Trump to end shutdown
    • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Democ­rats wast­ed no time flex­ing their new pow­er in the U.S. House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives on Thurs­day by approv­ing leg­is­la­tion backed by new Speak­er Nan­cy Pelosi that would end a 13-day par­tial gov­ern­ment shut­down, ignor­ing Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump’s demand for $5 bil­lion for a bor­der wall.
  • Sharara Oil Filed Los­es 8,500 Bpd To Looters
    • The field, which nor­mal­ly yields some 315,000 bar­rels dai­ly was seized by a group of local tribes­men and mem­bers of the Petro­le­um Facil­i­ties Guard in ear­ly Decem­ber, which prompt­ed the NOC to declare a force majeure on the field about a week later.
  • Cana­da says 13 cit­i­zens detained in Chi­na since Huawei CFO arrest
    • TORONTO (Reuters) — Cana­da said on Thurs­day that 13 of its cit­i­zens have been detained in Chi­na since Huawei Tech­nolo­gies Co [HWT.UL] Chief Finan­cial Offi­cer Meng Wanzhou was arrest­ed last month in Van­cou­ver at the request of the Unit­ed States.
  • Oil sta­bi­lizes on China‑U.S. trade talks, OPEC cuts
    • SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Oil prices stead­ied on Fri­day after Chi­na said it would hold talks with Wash­ing­ton on Jan. 7–8 aimed at solv­ing trade dis­putes between the two world’s biggest economies.
  • Chi­na and U.S. to hold trade talks in Bei­jing on Jan­u­ary 7–8
    • BEIJING (Reuters) — Chi­na and the Unit­ed States will hold vice min­is­te­r­i­al lev­el trade talks in Bei­jing on Jan. 7–8, as the two sides look to end a dis­pute that is inflict­ing increas­ing pain on both economies and roil­ing glob­al finan­cial markets.
  • Oil prices rebound, helped by weak dol­lar, Sau­di sup­ply cuts
    • LONDON (Reuters) — Oil prices rebound­ed on Thurs­day after an ear­ly slide, helped by dol­lar weak­ness and signs of out­put cuts by the world’s top crude exporter Sau­di Ara­bia that eased con­cerns about a glut.
  • Brazil farm lob­by wins as Bol­sonaro grabs con­trol over indige­nous lands
    • RIO DE JANEIRO/BRASILIA (Reuters) — New Brazil­ian Pres­i­dent Jair Bol­sonaro issued an exec­u­tive order on Wednes­day mak­ing the Agri­cul­ture Min­istry respon­si­ble for decid­ing on lands claimed by indige­nous peo­ples, in a vic­to­ry for agribusi­ness that will like­ly enrage environmentalists.
  • Sau­di Ara­bia may cut Feb­ru­ary heavy crude prices to Asia
    • SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Top oil exporter Sau­di Ara­bia is expect­ed to cut Feb­ru­ary prices for heav­ier crude grades sold to Asia due to weak­er fuel oil mar­gins, respon­dents to a Reuters sur­vey said on Thursday.
• Addi­tion­al OPEC news
  • None at this moment

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

	Week	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu
	12/24 — 12/28	12/31	1/1	1/2	1/3
High	47.064	46.634	0	47.918	47.647
Low	42.603	44.859	0	44.505	45.536
Close	45.219	45.405	0	46.457	46.979
Pip move	446.1	177.5	0	341.3	211.1
PP	44.962	45.633	0	46.293	46.721
dis­tance	235.9	77.4	0	178.8	118.5
R1	47.321	46.407	0	48.081	47.906
dis­tance	446.1	177.5	0	341.3	211.1
R2	49.423	47.408	0	49.706	48.832
dis­tance	-210.2	-100.1	0	-162.5	-92.6
S1	42.86	44.632	0	44.668	45.795
dis­tance	-446.1	-177.5	0	-341.3	-211.1
S2	40.501	43.858	0	42.88	44.61
TV	275,458	38,261	0	79,757	85,113
50MA		55.264	0	54.803	54.42
200MA		65.327	0	65.23	65.138
ATR		2.3752	2.4964	2.5136

• What can we tell from the PP levels?
  • The PP lev­els retraced about ⅔ 
• Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
  • We have the Dai­ly resis­tance lev­el at 49.80 and then we have the week­ly at 54
  • On the sup­port side we have 45.25 on the Dai­ly and then the 42.50 on the weekly
• What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
  • The 4H chart is show­ing that we are mov­ing clos­er to the UKC in a more con­trolled fash­ion which tells me that the low­er time frame uptrend is a strong one albeit a bit sluggish
  • The 30M con­firms this although we can see that the curve is bend­ing over
• How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?

Cur­rent	47.45
Price
Dai­ly	Price	Dis­tance
50MA	54.42	697
200MA	65.138	1,769

S/R	kind	lev­el	Dis­tance
R6	Week­ly	54	655
R5	Dai­ly	49.8	235
R4	WR2	49.423	197.3
R3	DR1	48.081	63.1
R2	DR2	48.832	138.2
R1	DR1	47.906	45.6
CURRENT		47.45
S1	WR1	47.321	-12.9
S2	DPP	46.721	-72.9
S3	DS1	45.795	-165.5
S4	Dai­ly	45.25	-220
S5	WPP	44.962	-248.8
S6	DS2	44.61	-284

• What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
  • AS looks like we are con­tin­u­ing the move up in a slug­gish uptrend that bounced off yesterday’s DPP and crossed today’s WR1 47.321
• ATR
  • What is the ATR on the daily?
    • Is it increasing/decreasing?
      • 2.5136
      • ATR increased a lit­tle bit

Trade Plan

• I’ll be look­ing for swing rever­sals at the high­er time frame levels

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Only take Swing Rever­sal plays

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • We basi­cal­ly bounced 3 times off of 46.80 lev­el and nev­er looked back
    • We then broke through WR1 47.321 and DR1 at 47.906 with no real signs of slow­ing down
  • We just hit the 4H UKC at 48.10 lev­el and might be look­ing to reverse at this point. 5M has been on a uptrend­ing tear so let’s see if we will hold or BO from this level
  • I had the chance to take a swing rever­sal mean rever­sion trade but I didn’t because I hes­i­tat­ed. It’s actu­al­ly more a scalp strat­e­gy at this point so extra cau­tion is warranted.
    • Man this is turn­ing into a pos­si­ble great oppor­tu­ni­ty but I can’t get on board because I missed my opti­mal entry. Damn. 
      • I’m going to wait for a failed swing high before get­ting in short
  • We are attempt­ing a swing high and I took a short at 5M 1.0 SD but cov­ered quick­ly at 1 tick prof­it because we hadn’t closed the can­dle yet and even now it doesn’t look too bear­ish still so don’t feel too confident
    • Luck­i­ly I cov­ered since PA returned up and didn’t drop. Looks like the 5M VWAP mean might be hold­ing still
  • We are test­ing the 48.30 lev­el again and might be look­ing to break
    • We are into the 2.0 SD
    • We didn’t break and abrupt­ly had a sharp move down which enhances the feel­ing that we might see weak­ness here and roll over. How­ev­er, if my entry rules aren’t met I am not allowed to take a posi­tion so I will stand here and watch PA
  • I first thought this could be a com­plex pull­back and then we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the uptrend but it still looks like it’s rolling over. Too bad for me it is trad­ing in a range where my entry rules aren’t met
  • We made a move up and are test­ing the 5M UKC into 30M 1.5 SD
  • T2
    • Win 1.7 ticks
  • A pos­si­bly long entry could be after we drop on the 5M to the LKC which is about the 30M UKC lev­el and wait for my entry rules to confirm
  • I was wrong. We did drop to the 30M UKC but that is the 5M 50MA area and not the LKC
    • We could drop fur­ther to the VWAP mean and find support
  • Anoth­er short oppor­tu­ni­ty might be when we make anoth­er swing high on the 30M that fails
  • NY just opened and we are in what might be a high­er time frame pullback
  • We dropped to 5M LKC which is also DR1 47.906 level
    • We looked like we were gonna drop and I was tempt­ed to take a short here but so hap­py I stuck to my plan. Price shot up 30 ticks. I know I know… hear you think­ing why I didn’t go long well the rea­son is my entry cri­te­ria hadn’t been met yet so I was wait­ing for a con­fir­ma­tion on the 5M which nev­er came. This is a pret­ty huge rejec­tion of this level. 
  • Pa then con­sol­i­dat­ed at the 48.30 lev­el before shoot­ing up over the UKC and the DR2 48.832 but we might find resis­tance at this level
    • We dropped back but unsure if this is a pull­back or not

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal Short
      • 4H LKC touch
      • Pre­vi­ous 5M swing high with bear­ish candle
      • Sec­ond attempt swing high into 1.0 SD took an entry
      • Entry
        • 48.161
  • SL
    • Soft stop above the wick of entry
  • TP
    • DR1 47.906
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered quick­ly at 48.150
    • Win 1.1 tick
    • Luck­i­ly I cov­ered since PA returned up and didn’t drop. Looks like the 5M VWAP mean might be hold­ing still

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal Short
      • We made a long upper wicked doji below the UKC and 30M shows we might be rolling over so took a short posi­tion right after the close
      • Entry
        • 48.331
  • SL
    • Soft SL above the pre­vi­ous wick
  • TP
    • 47.943
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 48.314 because I expect­ed PA to drop imme­di­ate­ly after such a can­dle prob­a­bly at least to the VWAP mean but there was no such sharp move so was look­ing for an out and luck­i­ly was able to cov­er at 1.7 tick profit
    • After­math
      • PA did go up to test the UKC again so am hap­py I fol­lowed my instinct
        • Anoth­er thing I did well was have a tighter men­tal stop just above the body of the pre­vi­ous can­dle because this would have bro­ken the expect­ed pattern

Dai­ly Report Card

• Only take Swing Rever­sal plays
  • Yes I had the chance to take a few swing rever­sal fade scalps. Got­ta think of a bet­ter name for these trades 🙂

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.