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01042019 Trade Plan — 4H UKC BO

Daily Report Card

01042019 Trade Plan — 4H UKC BO

01042019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeSunMonTueWedThuFri
Beers night before10410000
Hours sleep69868.57
Sleep well?133232
Neg­a­tive thoughts?111112
Exer­cise yester(to)day111133
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours001 espres­so spread over 2 hoursmorn­ing espres­so, after­noon big hot chocolatemorn­ing espres­so, after­noon espresso
Inter­mit­tent fastingnononoyesyesno
Water 2.2L bottles222222
Time bed yesterday04:3002:0006:0002:0022002230

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I feel I am get­ting bet­ter incre­men­tal­ly. Today I will go to the hos­pi­tal to make an appoint­ment to have my fin­ger checked out. Good thing I am being more active walk­ing around etc.
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good, just could be a lit­tle bit sharp­er. This is prob­a­bly due to not hav­ing slept too well.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • We inched high­er yes­ter­day and then bounced down off the DPP 46.293 and trad­ed high­er back to swing high at WR1 47.321
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • What does the crowd think?
      • Accord­ing to yesterday
        • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
        • Last week 61% bullish
        • Last 3 days 62% bullish
      • Accord­ing to today
        • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
        • Last week 62% bullish
        • Last 3 days 60% bullish
        • We went down in bull­ish­ness a bit
    • High 1.14110
    • Low 1.13097
    • Close 1.13931
    • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 63.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.71 to 1. The per­cent­age of traders net-long is now its high­est since Dec 12 when EURUSD trad­ed near 1.13724. The num­ber of traders net-long is 47.7% high­er than yes­ter­day and 18.4% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 32.2% low­er than yes­ter­day and 19.6% low­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
  • Gold
    • High 1294.90
    • Low 1284.30
    • Close 1294.10
    • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 74.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.96 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 1.6% high­er than yes­ter­day and 1.9% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 4.9% low­er than yes­ter­day and 19.7% high­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed Spot Gold trad­ing bias.

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • -4.500M bar­rels
  • EIA report
    • EIA has fore­cast ‑3.086M but will come out lat­er today so I will take not of that lat­er on
  • Geopol­i­tics and the head­lines of today?
    • Ecuador pres­i­dent demands probe into pre­de­ces­sor’s oil projects
      • QUITO (Reuters) — Ecuador’s Pres­i­dent Lenin Moreno on Thurs­day asked the coun­try’s pros­e­cu­tor to probe $4.9 bil­lion of oil-relat­ed infra­struc­ture projects, alleg­ing that the OPEC nation’s mon­ey was loot­ed dur­ing the decade-long tenure of his left­ist predecessor.
    • Chi­na warn­ings sig­nal Trump’s trade war final­ly hit­ting home
      • ATLANTA/NEW YORK (Reuters) — Weak sales at Apple and Cargill, U.S. giants of tech­nol­o­gy and agri­cul­ture, may be the clear­est sign yet that Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump’s quest to reset world trade car­ries costs at home and could iso­late the Unit­ed States as the increas­ing­ly frag­ile engine for glob­al eco­nom­ic growth.
    • Sec­ond ref­er­en­dum would only divide UK fur­ther: Brex­it minister
      • BERLIN (Reuters) — A sec­ond ref­er­en­dum on Britain’s mem­ber­ship of the Euro­pean Union would only exac­er­bate divi­sions among the British peo­ple, Brex­it min­is­ter Stephen Bar­clay told a Ger­man newspaper.
    • On first day in pow­er, House Democ­rats chal­lenge Trump to end shutdown
      • WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Democ­rats wast­ed no time flex­ing their new pow­er in the U.S. House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives on Thurs­day by approv­ing leg­is­la­tion backed by new Speak­er Nan­cy Pelosi that would end a 13-day par­tial gov­ern­ment shut­down, ignor­ing Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump’s demand for $5 bil­lion for a bor­der wall.
    • Sharara Oil Filed Los­es 8,500 Bpd To Looters
      • The field, which nor­mal­ly yields some 315,000 bar­rels dai­ly was seized by a group of local tribes­men and mem­bers of the Petro­le­um Facil­i­ties Guard in ear­ly Decem­ber, which prompt­ed the NOC to declare a force majeure on the field about a week later.
    • Cana­da says 13 cit­i­zens detained in Chi­na since Huawei CFO arrest
      • TORONTO (Reuters) — Cana­da said on Thurs­day that 13 of its cit­i­zens have been detained in Chi­na since Huawei Tech­nolo­gies Co [HWT.UL] Chief Finan­cial Offi­cer Meng Wanzhou was arrest­ed last month in Van­cou­ver at the request of the Unit­ed States.
    • Oil sta­bi­lizes on China‑U.S. trade talks, OPEC cuts
      • SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Oil prices stead­ied on Fri­day after Chi­na said it would hold talks with Wash­ing­ton on Jan. 7–8 aimed at solv­ing trade dis­putes between the two world’s biggest economies.
    • Chi­na and U.S. to hold trade talks in Bei­jing on Jan­u­ary 7–8
      • BEIJING (Reuters) — Chi­na and the Unit­ed States will hold vice min­is­te­r­i­al lev­el trade talks in Bei­jing on Jan. 7–8, as the two sides look to end a dis­pute that is inflict­ing increas­ing pain on both economies and roil­ing glob­al finan­cial markets.
    • Oil prices rebound, helped by weak dol­lar, Sau­di sup­ply cuts
      • LONDON (Reuters) — Oil prices rebound­ed on Thurs­day after an ear­ly slide, helped by dol­lar weak­ness and signs of out­put cuts by the world’s top crude exporter Sau­di Ara­bia that eased con­cerns about a glut.
    • Brazil farm lob­by wins as Bol­sonaro grabs con­trol over indige­nous lands
      • RIO DE JANEIRO/BRASILIA (Reuters) — New Brazil­ian Pres­i­dent Jair Bol­sonaro issued an exec­u­tive order on Wednes­day mak­ing the Agri­cul­ture Min­istry respon­si­ble for decid­ing on lands claimed by indige­nous peo­ples, in a vic­to­ry for agribusi­ness that will like­ly enrage environmentalists.
    • Sau­di Ara­bia may cut Feb­ru­ary heavy crude prices to Asia
      • SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Top oil exporter Sau­di Ara­bia is expect­ed to cut Feb­ru­ary prices for heav­ier crude grades sold to Asia due to weak­er fuel oil mar­gins, respon­dents to a Reuters sur­vey said on Thursday.
  • Addi­tion­al OPEC news
    • None at this moment

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

         12/24 — 12/2812/311/11/21/3
Pip move446.1177.50341.3211.1
50MA           55.264054.80354.42
200MA            65.327065.2365.138
ATR             2.37522.49642.5136
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • The PP lev­els retraced about ⅔ 
  • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
    • We have the Dai­ly resis­tance lev­el at 49.80 and then we have the week­ly at 54
    • On the sup­port side we have 45.25 on the Dai­ly and then the 42.50 on the weekly
  • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
    • The 4H chart is show­ing that we are mov­ing clos­er to the UKC in a more con­trolled fash­ion which tells me that the low­er time frame uptrend is a strong one albeit a bit sluggish
    • The 30M con­firms this although we can see that the curve is bend­ing over
  • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?

CURRENT   47.45   
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • AS looks like we are con­tin­u­ing the move up in a slug­gish uptrend that bounced off yesterday’s DPP and crossed today’s WR1 47.321
  • ATR
    • What is the ATR on the daily?
      • Is it increasing/decreasing?
        • 2.5136
        • ATR increased a lit­tle bit

Trade Plan

  • I’ll be look­ing for swing rever­sals at the high­er time frame levels

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Only take Swing Rever­sal plays

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • We basi­cal­ly bounced 3 times off of 46.80 lev­el and nev­er looked back
      • We then broke through WR1 47.321 and DR1 at 47.906 with no real signs of slow­ing down
    • We just hit the 4H UKC at 48.10 lev­el and might be look­ing to reverse at this point. 5M has been on a uptrend­ing tear so let’s see if we will hold or BO from this level
    • I had the chance to take a swing rever­sal mean rever­sion trade but I didn’t because I hes­i­tat­ed. It’s actu­al­ly more a scalp strat­e­gy at this point so extra cau­tion is warranted.
      • Man this is turn­ing into a pos­si­ble great oppor­tu­ni­ty but I can’t get on board because I missed my opti­mal entry. Damn. 
        • I’m going to wait for a failed swing high before get­ting in short
    • We are attempt­ing a swing high and I took a short at 5M 1.0 SD but cov­ered quick­ly at 1 tick prof­it because we hadn’t closed the can­dle yet and even now it doesn’t look too bear­ish still so don’t feel too confident
      • Luck­i­ly I cov­ered since PA returned up and didn’t drop. Looks like the 5M VWAP mean might be hold­ing still
    • We are test­ing the 48.30 lev­el again and might be look­ing to break
      • We are into the 2.0 SD
      • We didn’t break and abrupt­ly had a sharp move down which enhances the feel­ing that we might see weak­ness here and roll over. How­ev­er, if my entry rules aren’t met I am not allowed to take a posi­tion so I will stand here and watch PA
    • I first thought this could be a com­plex pull­back and then we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the uptrend but it still looks like it’s rolling over. Too bad for me it is trad­ing in a range where my entry rules aren’t met
    • We made a move up and are test­ing the 5M UKC into 30M 1.5 SD
    • T2
      • Win 1.7 ticks
    • A pos­si­bly long entry could be after we drop on the 5M to the LKC which is about the 30M UKC lev­el and wait for my entry rules to confirm
    • I was wrong. We did drop to the 30M UKC but that is the 5M 50MA area and not the LKC
      • We could drop fur­ther to the VWAP mean and find support
    • Anoth­er short oppor­tu­ni­ty might be when we make anoth­er swing high on the 30M that fails
    • NY just opened and we are in what might be a high­er time frame pullback
    • We dropped to 5M LKC which is also DR1 47.906 level
      • We looked like we were gonna drop and I was tempt­ed to take a short here but so hap­py I stuck to my plan. Price shot up 30 ticks. I know I know… hear you think­ing why I didn’t go long well the rea­son is my entry cri­te­ria hadn’t been met yet so I was wait­ing for a con­fir­ma­tion on the 5M which nev­er came. This is a pret­ty huge rejec­tion of this level. 
    • Pa then con­sol­i­dat­ed at the 48.30 lev­el before shoot­ing up over the UKC and the DR2 48.832 but we might find resis­tance at this level
      • We dropped back but unsure if this is a pull­back or not

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal Short
        • 4H LKC touch
        • Pre­vi­ous 5M swing high with bear­ish candle
        • Sec­ond attempt swing high into 1.0 SD took an entry
        • Entry
          • 48.161
    • SL
      • Soft stop above the wick of entry
    • TP
      • DR1 47.906
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered quick­ly at 48.150
      • Win 1.1 tick
      • Luck­i­ly I cov­ered since PA returned up and didn’t drop. Looks like the 5M VWAP mean might be hold­ing still
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal Short
        • We made a long upper wicked doji below the UKC and 30M shows we might be rolling over so took a short posi­tion right after the close
        • Entry
          • 48.331
    • SL
      • Soft SL above the pre­vi­ous wick
    • TP
      • 47.943
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at 48.314 because I expect­ed PA to drop imme­di­ate­ly after such a can­dle prob­a­bly at least to the VWAP mean but there was no such sharp move so was look­ing for an out and luck­i­ly was able to cov­er at 1.7 tick profit
      • After­math
        • PA did go up to test the UKC again so am hap­py I fol­lowed my instinct
          • Anoth­er thing I did well was have a tighter men­tal stop just above the body of the pre­vi­ous can­dle because this would have bro­ken the expect­ed pattern

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Only take Swing Rever­sal plays
    • Yes I had the chance to take a few swing rever­sal fade scalps. Got­ta think of a bet­ter name for these trades 🙂


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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