Bear Market Trader | Weekly Outlook on WTI crude oil market
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01062018 Weekly Big Picture

01062018 Weekly Big Picture

01062018 Week­ly Big Picture

This is part of my week­ly prepa­ra­tion of my trad­ing week to give me an idea on where I think the mar­ket stands. 

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Review­ing the health progress

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeTueWedThuFriSatSun
Beers night before10000102
Hours sleep868.5768
Sleep well?323212
Neg­a­tive thoughts?111211
Exer­cise yester(to)day113322
Cof­fees today01 espres­so spread over 2 hoursmorn­ing espres­so, after­noon big hot chocolatemorn­ing espres­so, after­noon espresso1 espres­so. 1/2 coffee1 espres­so spread over 2 hours
Inter­mit­tent fastingnoyesyesnonono
Water 2.2L bottles222222
Time bed yesterday06:0002:002200223005:0001:30
  • Points from last week’s Big Picture
    • Goals for this week
      • Exer­cise 2 times
        • I went walk­ing in the morn­ings and I def­i­nite­ly am more active. Did I actu­al­ly go work out? No. It’s a start. I will pay atten­tion on this for the week and put in 2 workouts
      • Don’t drink caf­feine dur­ing the week
        • I still do drink caf­feine dur­ing the week. So how am I going to change this? Mon­day till Wednes­day I start break­ing down the caf­feine intake by only drink­ing half an espres­so. Last time I quit caf­feine cold turkey I felt miserable.
      • Watch the social gatherings
        • Only went out on Fri­day for drinks but over­did it. This goes hand in hand with my caf­feine intake. On Fri­day I had almost 2 cups of espres­so and at night I was so hyper that I felt the urge to ‘coun­ter­act’ the caf­feine with alco­hol. Who needs excus­es to drink right? 🙂 I def­i­nite­ly do notice a cor­re­la­tion though. I should bring down my caf­feine intake only for days that I actu­al­ly need a boost when I’m tired.
      • Fast at least twice
        • I did fast twice this week and am think­ing I should make this my rou­tine for more days. I feel bet­ter. My ener­gy lev­els are up and so is my con­cen­tra­tion. How­ev­er, I’m think­ing I’m not get­ting enough vit­a­mins and min­er­als in. Which I do sup­ply with vit­a­min pills but healthy eat­ing would be the best obviously. 
      • Review play­book setups
        • I did review my play­book setups
      • Review trades!
        • I will do this the next day when I write my trade plan of the day
          • I can’t review the next day because I have to con­vert my record­ing into MP4 for­mat and then upload it to my Dri­ve. By the time this is done I am unavail­able for review­ing and I can’t review the record­ing right after because it is still record­ing the NY ses­sion as well. So how am I going to solve this? I have been think­ing that I am wast­ing time by allo­cat­ing time for what I con­sid­er to be the fun­da­men­tals in the crude oil world. How­ev­er, since I trade off of a low­er time frame these don’t mat­ter as much (if at all). So I will change the way I do this and dis­cuss this underneath.
  • How did you do the whole week?
    • I feel I need to be more spe­cif­ic in my trad­ing and focus on mas­ter­ing one ele­ment. Stop think­ing that I am so smart that I can do it all at once. 

Last week’s trading

  • How did you do?
    • Did you stick to your play­book setups?
      • No, I didn’t in the begin­ning of the week but then decid­ed to only focus on one par­tic­u­lar set­up of mine, the Swing Rever­sal play. Now, I only trade these until I have mas­tered them. The rest of the plays I will gath­er more data on and do some back­test­ing before I will take posi­tions in them. I feel the oth­er setups are a part of the Swing Rever­sal plays and will bring the whole pic­ture togeth­er. How­ev­er, I need to focus and mas­ter one part first before I can move on to the next one. 
    • Did you stick to your posi­tion siz­ing rules?
      • I didn’t and that’s anoth­er rea­son why I lost this week. 
    • Did you review your play­book setups?
      • I did review most but not all so I will be doing that today.
    • Did you review your trades?
      • I didn’t but I will this week.

What are you goals for the week?

  • Exer­cise 2 days + keep walking 
  • Don’t go to the bar next weekend
  • Fast 3 days
  • Review play­book setups and trades
    • The play­book setups I will review on the weekend
    • The trades I will review the next day because I am not going to focus on fun­da­men­tals as much any­more. I will take a brief overview on the news and that’s it. This still doesn’t help me with con­vert­ing and upload­ing the so I will review them after the next day’s trad­ing ses­sion. Mean­ing watch­ing Monday’s trades on Tues­day after NY opens because I stop trad­ing then. 

The Big Picture

  • WTI
    • What hap­pened last week?
      • Last week we made a run up to test the Dai­ly VWAP mean and found resis­tance there. 
    • What is the sup­ply and demand balance?
      • The API report­ed a draw of ‑4.500M where the EIA report­ed a draw of only 0.007M
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • What does state?
        • Last week’s sen­ti­ment numbers
          • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
          • Last week 57% bullish
          • Last 3 days 62% bullish
        • This week’s
          • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
          • Last week 62% bullish
          • Last 3 days 62% bullish
        • Last week we increased in bull­ish­ness of 5%
    • What is the Tick Vol­ume showing?
   12/24 — 12/2812/311/11/21/31/412/31 — 1/4
Pip move446.1177.50341.3211.1257.6489
200MA         65.327065.2365.13865.057          
ATR4.36562.3752         2.49642.51362.52024.4173
  • After NYE we had a con­sis­tent TV range of around the 80K
  • The low amount before that is prob­a­bly due to the holidays
  • What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?
    • Piv­ot levels
      • DPP moved up Fri­day by 1.5 in a sig­nif­i­cant run to try and break the down trend that we have been in for the last 2 months
      • The PP lev­els have wid­ed a lit­tle bit but not as much as before. Nor­mal­ly, we can see a big dis­tance between PP lev­els with a big move and then retract to about half of those dis­tances to set up for the next move. This time the big move hap­pened with about 25–50% more dis­tance between the lev­els. Could this mean there is still momen­tum left in the move up? I will keep an eye on this. 
    • Dai­ly chart
      • Mov­ing Averages
        • The Dai­ly 50MA is at 54.062 so it is still on the decline and so is the 200MA at 65.057
    • 4H chart
      • Last week we crossed the VWAP mean and stayed over it. How­ev­er, VWAP is now near the UKC and VWAP is look­ing to poten­tial­ly tight­en to set­up the next big move
  • How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Note that on the sup­port side the Week­ly 47.5 and WPP 47.461 are around the same level
      • Not far off is the DS1 47.069
      • A lev­el down we have DS2 45.656 and WS1 45.527 at very close levels
    • On the resis­tance side we have DR1 49.645 and Dai­ly 49.8 around the same level
      • WR1 50.417 and DR2 50.808 aren’t that far either
      • And then we have almost iden­ti­cal lev­els of Dai­ly 52.30 and WR2 52.351
    • I would con­sid­er these lev­els more sig­nif­i­cant because of the overlap

CURRENT   48.48    

  • Is the mar­ket trend­ing up or down?
    • The over­all mar­ket is still very much in a down­trend but it could be that we are at the bor­der of break­ing the long term down­trend into a less steep down­trend and into a pos­si­ble rang­ing territory
    • We have longer moves in the last few weeks indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble exhaus­tion of the down­trend and the swing have got­ten bigger
  • Is there an OPEC meeting?
    • Not but there is some news
      • OPEC is cut­ting more oil from the mar­ket than planned, says for­mer Sau­di Aram­co executive
        • OPEC is cut­ting oil pro­duc­tion more than it promised, accord­ing to for­mer Sau­di Aram­co exec­u­tive Sadad al-Husseini.
        • The 14-mem­ber pro­duc­er group could remove about 1 mil­lion bar­rels per day from the mar­ket by the end of Jan­u­ary, Hus­sei­ni says.
        • OPEC agreed to slash out­put by 800,000 bpd last month to pre­vent a price-crush­ing sup­ply glut in the oil market.
  • Ener­gy sector
    • How is the sec­tor as a whole doing?
      • US
        • 1 month
          • -14.02% to
          • -8.68%
        • 3 months
          • -27.04 to
          • -24.35%
        • YTD
          • -22.64% to
          • +4.99%
      • The Amer­i­c­as
        • 1 month
          • -12.96% to
          • -7.79%
        • 3 months
          • -25.58% to
          • -22.81%
        • YTD
          • -22.90% to
          • +5.45%
      • Europe
        • 1 month
          • -3.97% to
          • -3.21%
        • 3 months
          • -15.87% to
          • -13.94%
        • YTD
          • -8.02% to
          • +3.67%
      • Asia
        • 1 month
          • -6.02% to
          • -8.71%
        • 3 months
          • -20.52% to
          • -17.49%
        • YTD
          • 13.54% to
          • +0.13%
      • Mid­dle East / Africa
        • 1 month
          • -3.50% to
          • -1.93%
        • 3 months
          • -9.33% to
          • -6.78%
        • YTD
          • -9.48% to
          • -0.63%
      • All sec­tors expect the Mid­dle East / Africa (which is neg­li­gi­ble) have increased in val­ue com­pared to a year ago.
    • What is last week’s price range?
      • High 1.15450
      • Low 1.13097
      • Close 1.13930
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 63.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.71 to 1. The per­cent­age of traders net-long is now its high­est since Dec 12 when EURUSD trad­ed near 1.13724. The num­ber of traders net-long is 47.7% high­er than yes­ter­day and 18.4% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 32.2% low­er than yes­ter­day and 19.6% low­er from last week.
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
  • Gold
    • What is last week’s price range?
      • High 1298.54
      • Low 1276.50
      • Close 1284.84
    • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
      • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 74.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.96 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 1.6% high­er than yes­ter­day and 1.9% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 4.9% low­er than yes­ter­day and 19.7% high­er from last week.
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed Spot Gold trad­ing bias.
      • MIXED BIAS
  • Geopol­i­tics
    • What are the main dri­vers in geopolitics?
      • Japan’s Abe says vig­i­lant to glob­al eco­nom­ic risks cloud­ing recovery
      • No break­through in U.S. shut­down talks, Pelosi plans new legislation
      • Demo­c­rat War­ren takes eco­nom­ic mes­sage to Iowa in kick­off to 2020 race
      • Iran plans naval drills with Rus­sia in Caspi­an Sea
      • New Venezuela con­gress chief says Maduro will be usurp­er president
      • UK’s May could seek more time before final Brex­it vote: paper
      • Clash­es erupt in Paris as ‘yel­low vests’ protest at unre­pen­tant Macron
      • Brazil mil­i­tary uneasy with Bol­sonaro’s open­ness to U.S. base: source
      • Moscow says FBI arrest­ed Russ­ian a day after it detained ex‑U.S. Marine
      • Bolton warns Syr­ia against use of chem­i­cal weapons


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 



Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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