01062018 Weekly Big Picture

06 Jan 01062018 Weekly Big Picture

01062018 Week­ly Big Picture

This is part of my week­ly prepa­ra­tion of my trad­ing week to give me an idea on where I think the mar­ket stands. 

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Review­ing the health progress

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
	1/1	1/2	1/3	1/4	1/5	1/6
Beers night before	10	0	0	0	10	2
Hours sleep	8	6	8.5	7	6	8
Sleep well?	3	2	3	2	1	2
Mela­tonin	0	1x	0	0	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	1	1	1	2	1	1
Exer­cise yester(to)day	1	1	3	3	2	2
Grat­i­tude	5	5	5	5	5	5
Joy	5	5	5	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	1	1	1	1
Focus	2	2	3	2	1	2
Cof­fees today	0	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	morn­ing espres­so, after­noon big hot chocolate	morn­ing espres­so, after­noon espresso	1 espres­so. 1/2 coffee	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	yes	yes	no	no	no
Water 2.2L bottles	2	2	2	2	2	2
Vit­a­mins	no	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Time bed yesterday	06:00	02:00	2200	2230	05:00	01:30

• Points from last week’s Big Picture
  • Goals for this week
    • Exer­cise 2 times
      • I went walk­ing in the morn­ings and I def­i­nite­ly am more active. Did I actu­al­ly go work out? No. It’s a start. I will pay atten­tion on this for the week and put in 2 workouts
    • Don’t drink caf­feine dur­ing the week
      • I still do drink caf­feine dur­ing the week. So how am I going to change this? Mon­day till Wednes­day I start break­ing down the caf­feine intake by only drink­ing half an espres­so. Last time I quit caf­feine cold turkey I felt miserable.
    • Watch the social gatherings
      • Only went out on Fri­day for drinks but over­did it. This goes hand in hand with my caf­feine intake. On Fri­day I had almost 2 cups of espres­so and at night I was so hyper that I felt the urge to ‘coun­ter­act’ the caf­feine with alco­hol. Who needs excus­es to drink right? 🙂 I def­i­nite­ly do notice a cor­re­la­tion though. I should bring down my caf­feine intake only for days that I actu­al­ly need a boost when I’m tired.
    • Fast at least twice
      • I did fast twice this week and am think­ing I should make this my rou­tine for more days. I feel bet­ter. My ener­gy lev­els are up and so is my con­cen­tra­tion. How­ev­er, I’m think­ing I’m not get­ting enough vit­a­mins and min­er­als in. Which I do sup­ply with vit­a­min pills but healthy eat­ing would be the best obviously. 
    • Review play­book setups
      • I did review my play­book setups
    • Review trades!
      • I will do this the next day when I write my trade plan of the day
        • I can’t review the next day because I have to con­vert my record­ing into MP4 for­mat and then upload it to my Dri­ve. By the time this is done I am unavail­able for review­ing and I can’t review the record­ing right after because it is still record­ing the NY ses­sion as well. So how am I going to solve this? I have been think­ing that I am wast­ing time by allo­cat­ing time for what I con­sid­er to be the fun­da­men­tals in the crude oil world. How­ev­er, since I trade off of a low­er time frame these don’t mat­ter as much (if at all). So I will change the way I do this and dis­cuss this underneath.
• How did you do the whole week?
  • I feel I need to be more spe­cif­ic in my trad­ing and focus on mas­ter­ing one ele­ment. Stop think­ing that I am so smart that I can do it all at once. 

Last week’s trading

• How did you do?
  • Did you stick to your play­book setups?
    • No, I didn’t in the begin­ning of the week but then decid­ed to only focus on one par­tic­u­lar set­up of mine, the Swing Rever­sal play. Now, I only trade these until I have mas­tered them. The rest of the plays I will gath­er more data on and do some back­test­ing before I will take posi­tions in them. I feel the oth­er setups are a part of the Swing Rever­sal plays and will bring the whole pic­ture togeth­er. How­ev­er, I need to focus and mas­ter one part first before I can move on to the next one. 
  • Did you stick to your posi­tion siz­ing rules?
    • I didn’t and that’s anoth­er rea­son why I lost this week. 
  • Did you review your play­book setups?
    • I did review most but not all so I will be doing that today.
  • Did you review your trades?
    • I didn’t but I will this week.

What are you goals for the week?

• Exer­cise 2 days + keep walking 
• Don’t go to the bar next weekend
• Fast 3 days
• Review play­book setups and trades
  • The play­book setups I will review on the weekend
  • The trades I will review the next day because I am not going to focus on fun­da­men­tals as much any­more. I will take a brief overview on the news and that’s it. This still doesn’t help me with con­vert­ing and upload­ing the so I will review them after the next day’s trad­ing ses­sion. Mean­ing watch­ing Monday’s trades on Tues­day after NY opens because I stop trad­ing then. 

The Big Picture

• WTI
  • What hap­pened last week?
    • Last week we made a run up to test the Dai­ly VWAP mean and found resis­tance there. 
  • What is the sup­ply and demand balance?
    • The API report­ed a draw of ‑4.500M where the EIA report­ed a draw of only 0.007M
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • What does investing.com state?
      • Last week’s sen­ti­ment numbers
        • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
        • Last week 57% bullish
        • Last 3 days 62% bullish
      • This week’s
        • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
        • Last week 62% bullish
        • Last 3 days 62% bullish
      • Last week we increased in bull­ish­ness of 5%
  • What is the Tick Vol­ume showing?

	Week	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Week
	12/24 — 12/28	12/31	1/1	1/2	1/3	1/4	12/31 — 1/4
High	47.064	46.634	0	47.918	47.647	49.395	49.395
Low	42.603	44.859	0	44.505	45.536	46.819	44.505
Close	45.219	45.405	0	46.457	46.979	48.483	48.483
Pip move	446.1	177.5	0	341.3	211.1	257.6	489
PP	44.962	45.633	0	46.293	46.721	48.232	47.461
dis­tance	235.9	77.4	0	178.8	118.5	141.3	295.6
R1	47.321	46.407	0	48.081	47.906	49.645	50.417
dis­tance	446.1	177.5	0	341.3	211.1	257.6	489
R2	49.423	47.408	0	49.706	48.832	50.808	52.351
dis­tance	-210.2	-100.1	0	-162.5	-92.6	-116.3	-193.4
S1	42.86	44.632	0	44.668	45.795	47.069	45.527
dis­tance	-446.1	-177.5	0	-341.3	-211.1	-257.6	-489
S2	40.501	43.858	0	42.88	44.61	45.656	42.571
TV	275,458	38,261	0	79,757	85,113	81,139	284,270
50MA	64.66	55.264	0	54.803	54.42	54.062	64.361
200MA		65.327	0	65.23	65.138	65.057
ATR	4.3656	2.3752		2.4964	2.5136	2.5202	4.4173

• After NYE we had a con­sis­tent TV range of around the 80K
• The low amount before that is prob­a­bly due to the holidays
• What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?
  • Piv­ot levels
    • DPP moved up Fri­day by 1.5 in a sig­nif­i­cant run to try and break the down trend that we have been in for the last 2 months
    • The PP lev­els have wid­ed a lit­tle bit but not as much as before. Nor­mal­ly, we can see a big dis­tance between PP lev­els with a big move and then retract to about half of those dis­tances to set up for the next move. This time the big move hap­pened with about 25–50% more dis­tance between the lev­els. Could this mean there is still momen­tum left in the move up? I will keep an eye on this. 
  • Dai­ly chart
    • Mov­ing Averages
      • The Dai­ly 50MA is at 54.062 so it is still on the decline and so is the 200MA at 65.057
  • 4H chart
    • Last week we crossed the VWAP mean and stayed over it. How­ev­er, VWAP is now near the UKC and VWAP is look­ing to poten­tial­ly tight­en to set­up the next big move
• How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?
  • Note that on the sup­port side the Week­ly 47.5 and WPP 47.461 are around the same level
    • Not far off is the DS1 47.069
    • A lev­el down we have DS2 45.656 and WS1 45.527 at very close levels
  • On the resis­tance side we have DR1 49.645 and Dai­ly 49.8 around the same level
    • WR1 50.417 and DR2 50.808 aren’t that far either
    • And then we have almost iden­ti­cal lev­els of Dai­ly 52.30 and WR2 52.351
  • I would con­sid­er these lev­els more sig­nif­i­cant because of the overlap

Cur­rent	48.48
Price
Dai­ly	Price	Dis­tance
50MA	54.42	594
200MA	65.138	1,666

S/R	kind	lev­el	Dis­tance
R6	WR2	52.351	387.1
R5	Dai­ly	52.3	382
R4	DR2	50.808	232.8
R3	WR1	50.417	193.7
R2	Dai­ly	49.8	132
R1	DR1	49.645	116.5
CURRENT		48.48
S1	DPP	48.232	-24.8
S2	Week­ly	47.5	-98
S3	WPP	47.461	-101.9
S4	DS1	47.069	-141.1
S5	DS2	45.656	-282.4
S6	WS1	45.527	-295.3

• Is the mar­ket trend­ing up or down?
  • The over­all mar­ket is still very much in a down­trend but it could be that we are at the bor­der of break­ing the long term down­trend into a less steep down­trend and into a pos­si­ble rang­ing territory
  • We have longer moves in the last few weeks indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble exhaus­tion of the down­trend and the swing have got­ten bigger
• Is there an OPEC meeting?
  • Not but there is some news
    • OPEC is cut­ting more oil from the mar­ket than planned, says for­mer Sau­di Aram­co executive
      • OPEC is cut­ting oil pro­duc­tion more than it promised, accord­ing to for­mer Sau­di Aram­co exec­u­tive Sadad al-Husseini.
      • The 14-mem­ber pro­duc­er group could remove about 1 mil­lion bar­rels per day from the mar­ket by the end of Jan­u­ary, Hus­sei­ni says.
      • OPEC agreed to slash out­put by 800,000 bpd last month to pre­vent a price-crush­ing sup­ply glut in the oil market.
• Ener­gy sector
  • How is the sec­tor as a whole doing?
    • US
      • 1 month
        • -14.02% to
        • -8.68%
      • 3 months
        • -27.04 to
        • -24.35%
      • YTD
        • -22.64% to
        • +4.99%
    • The Amer­i­c­as
      • 1 month
        • -12.96% to
        • -7.79%
      • 3 months
        • -25.58% to
        • -22.81%
      • YTD
        • -22.90% to
        • +5.45%
    • Europe
      • 1 month
        • -3.97% to
        • -3.21%
      • 3 months
        • -15.87% to
        • -13.94%
      • YTD
        • -8.02% to
        • +3.67%
    • Asia
      • 1 month
        • -6.02% to
        • -8.71%
      • 3 months
        • -20.52% to
        • -17.49%
      • YTD
        • 13.54% to
        • +0.13%
    • Mid­dle East / Africa
      • 1 month
        • -3.50% to
        • -1.93%
      • 3 months
        • -9.33% to
        • -6.78%
      • YTD
        • -9.48% to
        • -0.63%
    • All sec­tors expect the Mid­dle East / Africa (which is neg­li­gi­ble) have increased in val­ue com­pared to a year ago.
• EURUSD
  • What is last week’s price range?
    • High 1.15450
    • Low 1.13097
    • Close 1.13930
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • EURUSD: Retail trad­er data shows 63.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.71 to 1. The per­cent­age of traders net-long is now its high­est since Dec 12 when EURUSD trad­ed near 1.13724. The num­ber of traders net-long is 47.7% high­er than yes­ter­day and 18.4% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 32.2% low­er than yes­ter­day and 19.6% low­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Traders are fur­ther net-long than yes­ter­day and last week, and the com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bear­ish con­trar­i­an trad­ing bias.
    • BEARISH BIAS
• Gold
  • What is last week’s price range?
    • High 1298.54
    • Low 1276.50
    • Close 1284.84
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 74.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.96 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 1.6% high­er than yes­ter­day and 1.9% high­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 4.9% low­er than yes­ter­day and 19.7% high­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed Spot Gold trad­ing bias.
    • MIXED BIAS
• Geopol­i­tics
  • What are the main dri­vers in geopolitics?
    • Japan’s Abe says vig­i­lant to glob­al eco­nom­ic risks cloud­ing recovery
    • No break­through in U.S. shut­down talks, Pelosi plans new legislation
    • Demo­c­rat War­ren takes eco­nom­ic mes­sage to Iowa in kick­off to 2020 race
    • Iran plans naval drills with Rus­sia in Caspi­an Sea
    • New Venezuela con­gress chief says Maduro will be usurp­er president
    • UK’s May could seek more time before final Brex­it vote: paper
    • Clash­es erupt in Paris as ‘yel­low vests’ protest at unre­pen­tant Macron
    • Brazil mil­i­tary uneasy with Bol­sonaro’s open­ness to U.S. base: source
    • Moscow says FBI arrest­ed Russ­ian a day after it detained ex‑U.S. Marine
    • Bolton warns Syr­ia against use of chem­i­cal weapons

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

Sources:

• https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
• https://bluegoldresearch.com/retail-sentiment-crude-oil
• https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-scoreboard
• https://www.bloomberg.com/research/sectorandindustry/sectors/sectordetail.asp?region=US
• https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
• https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75
• https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
• https://www.bloomberg.com/energy