
06 Jan 01062018 Weekly Big Picture
01062018 Weekly Big Picture
This is part of my weekly preparation of my trading week to give me an idea on where I think the market stands.
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Reviewing the health progress
5 positive 1 negative | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
1/1 | 1/2 | 1/3 | 1/4 | 1/5 | 1/6 | |
Beers night before | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 |
Hours sleep | 8 | 6 | 8.5 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
Sleep well? | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 1x | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Coffees today | 0 | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | morning espresso, afternoon big hot chocolate | morning espresso, afternoon espresso | 1 espresso. 1/2 coffee | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours |
Intermittent fasting | no | yes | yes | no | no | no |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | no | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 06:00 | 02:00 | 2200 | 2230 | 05:00 | 01:30 |
- Points from last week’s Big Picture
- Goals for this week
- Exercise 2 times
- I went walking in the mornings and I definitely am more active. Did I actually go work out? No. It’s a start. I will pay attention on this for the week and put in 2 workouts
- Don’t drink caffeine during the week
- I still do drink caffeine during the week. So how am I going to change this? Monday till Wednesday I start breaking down the caffeine intake by only drinking half an espresso. Last time I quit caffeine cold turkey I felt miserable.
- Watch the social gatherings
- Only went out on Friday for drinks but overdid it. This goes hand in hand with my caffeine intake. On Friday I had almost 2 cups of espresso and at night I was so hyper that I felt the urge to ‘counteract’ the caffeine with alcohol. Who needs excuses to drink right? 🙂 I definitely do notice a correlation though. I should bring down my caffeine intake only for days that I actually need a boost when I’m tired.
- Fast at least twice
- I did fast twice this week and am thinking I should make this my routine for more days. I feel better. My energy levels are up and so is my concentration. However, I’m thinking I’m not getting enough vitamins and minerals in. Which I do supply with vitamin pills but healthy eating would be the best obviously.
- Review playbook setups
- I did review my playbook setups
- Review trades!
- I will do this the next day when I write my trade plan of the day
- I can’t review the next day because I have to convert my recording into MP4 format and then upload it to my Drive. By the time this is done I am unavailable for reviewing and I can’t review the recording right after because it is still recording the NY session as well. So how am I going to solve this? I have been thinking that I am wasting time by allocating time for what I consider to be the fundamentals in the crude oil world. However, since I trade off of a lower time frame these don’t matter as much (if at all). So I will change the way I do this and discuss this underneath.
- I will do this the next day when I write my trade plan of the day
- Exercise 2 times
- Goals for this week
- How did you do the whole week?
- I feel I need to be more specific in my trading and focus on mastering one element. Stop thinking that I am so smart that I can do it all at once.
Last week’s trading
- How did you do?
- Did you stick to your playbook setups?
- No, I didn’t in the beginning of the week but then decided to only focus on one particular setup of mine, the Swing Reversal play. Now, I only trade these until I have mastered them. The rest of the plays I will gather more data on and do some backtesting before I will take positions in them. I feel the other setups are a part of the Swing Reversal plays and will bring the whole picture together. However, I need to focus and master one part first before I can move on to the next one.
- Did you stick to your position sizing rules?
- I didn’t and that’s another reason why I lost this week.
- Did you review your playbook setups?
- I did review most but not all so I will be doing that today.
- Did you review your trades?
- I didn’t but I will this week.
- Did you stick to your playbook setups?
What are you goals for the week?
- Exercise 2 days + keep walking
- Don’t go to the bar next weekend
- Fast 3 days
- Review playbook setups and trades
- The playbook setups I will review on the weekend
- The trades I will review the next day because I am not going to focus on fundamentals as much anymore. I will take a brief overview on the news and that’s it. This still doesn’t help me with converting and uploading the so I will review them after the next day’s trading session. Meaning watching Monday’s trades on Tuesday after NY opens because I stop trading then.
The Big Picture
- WTI
- What happened last week?
- Last week we made a run up to test the Daily VWAP mean and found resistance there.
- What is the supply and demand balance?
- The API reported a draw of ‑4.500M where the EIA reported a draw of only 0.007M
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does investing.com state?
- Last week’s sentiment numbers
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 57% bullish
- Last 3 days 62% bullish
- This week’s
- All sentiments is 60% bullish
- Last week 62% bullish
- Last 3 days 62% bullish
- Last week we increased in bullishness of 5%
- Last week’s sentiment numbers
- What does investing.com state?
- What is the Tick Volume showing?
- What happened last week?
Week | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Week | |
12/24 — 12/28 | 12/31 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 1/3 | 1/4 | 12/31 — 1/4 | |
High | 47.064 | 46.634 | 0 | 47.918 | 47.647 | 49.395 | 49.395 |
Low | 42.603 | 44.859 | 0 | 44.505 | 45.536 | 46.819 | 44.505 |
Close | 45.219 | 45.405 | 0 | 46.457 | 46.979 | 48.483 | 48.483 |
Pip move | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 | 341.3 | 211.1 | 257.6 | 489 |
PP | 44.962 | 45.633 | 0 | 46.293 | 46.721 | 48.232 | 47.461 |
distance | 235.9 | 77.4 | 0 | 178.8 | 118.5 | 141.3 | 295.6 |
R1 | 47.321 | 46.407 | 0 | 48.081 | 47.906 | 49.645 | 50.417 |
distance | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 | 341.3 | 211.1 | 257.6 | 489 |
R2 | 49.423 | 47.408 | 0 | 49.706 | 48.832 | 50.808 | 52.351 |
distance | -210.2 | -100.1 | 0 | -162.5 | -92.6 | -116.3 | -193.4 |
S1 | 42.86 | 44.632 | 0 | 44.668 | 45.795 | 47.069 | 45.527 |
distance | -446.1 | -177.5 | 0 | -341.3 | -211.1 | -257.6 | -489 |
S2 | 40.501 | 43.858 | 0 | 42.88 | 44.61 | 45.656 | 42.571 |
TV | 275,458 | 38,261 | 0 | 79,757 | 85,113 | 81,139 | 284,270 |
50MA | 64.66 | 55.264 | 0 | 54.803 | 54.42 | 54.062 | 64.361 |
200MA | 65.327 | 0 | 65.23 | 65.138 | 65.057 | ||
ATR | 4.3656 | 2.3752 | 2.4964 | 2.5136 | 2.5202 | 4.4173 |
- After NYE we had a consistent TV range of around the 80K
- The low amount before that is probably due to the holidays
- What are the most important technical levels in the market?
- Pivot levels
- DPP moved up Friday by 1.5 in a significant run to try and break the down trend that we have been in for the last 2 months
- The PP levels have wided a little bit but not as much as before. Normally, we can see a big distance between PP levels with a big move and then retract to about half of those distances to set up for the next move. This time the big move happened with about 25–50% more distance between the levels. Could this mean there is still momentum left in the move up? I will keep an eye on this.
- Daily chart
- Moving Averages
- The Daily 50MA is at 54.062 so it is still on the decline and so is the 200MA at 65.057
- Moving Averages
- 4H chart
- Last week we crossed the VWAP mean and stayed over it. However, VWAP is now near the UKC and VWAP is looking to potentially tighten to setup the next big move
- Pivot levels
- How far is the market from important technical levels?
- Note that on the support side the Weekly 47.5 and WPP 47.461 are around the same level
- Not far off is the DS1 47.069
- A level down we have DS2 45.656 and WS1 45.527 at very close levels
- On the resistance side we have DR1 49.645 and Daily 49.8 around the same level
- WR1 50.417 and DR2 50.808 aren’t that far either
- And then we have almost identical levels of Daily 52.30 and WR2 52.351
- I would consider these levels more significant because of the overlap
- Note that on the support side the Weekly 47.5 and WPP 47.461 are around the same level
Current | 48.48 | |
Price | ||
Daily | Price | Distance |
50MA | 54.42 | 594 |
200MA | 65.138 | 1,666 |
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | WR2 | 52.351 | 387.1 |
R5 | Daily | 52.3 | 382 |
R4 | DR2 | 50.808 | 232.8 |
R3 | WR1 | 50.417 | 193.7 |
R2 | Daily | 49.8 | 132 |
R1 | DR1 | 49.645 | 116.5 |
CURRENT | 48.48 | ||
S1 | DPP | 48.232 | -24.8 |
S2 | Weekly | 47.5 | -98 |
S3 | WPP | 47.461 | -101.9 |
S4 | DS1 | 47.069 | -141.1 |
S5 | DS2 | 45.656 | -282.4 |
S6 | WS1 | 45.527 | -295.3 |
- Is the market trending up or down?
- The overall market is still very much in a downtrend but it could be that we are at the border of breaking the long term downtrend into a less steep downtrend and into a possible ranging territory
- We have longer moves in the last few weeks indicating a possible exhaustion of the downtrend and the swing have gotten bigger
- Is there an OPEC meeting?
- Not but there is some news
- OPEC is cutting more oil from the market than planned, says former Saudi Aramco executive
- OPEC is cutting oil production more than it promised, according to former Saudi Aramco executive Sadad al-Husseini.
- The 14-member producer group could remove about 1 million barrels per day from the market by the end of January, Husseini says.
- OPEC agreed to slash output by 800,000 bpd last month to prevent a price-crushing supply glut in the oil market.
- OPEC is cutting more oil from the market than planned, says former Saudi Aramco executive
- Not but there is some news
- Energy sector
- How is the sector as a whole doing?
- US
- 1 month
- -14.02% to
- -8.68%
- 3 months
- -27.04 to
- -24.35%
- YTD
- -22.64% to
- +4.99%
- 1 month
- The Americas
- 1 month
- -12.96% to
- -7.79%
- 3 months
- -25.58% to
- -22.81%
- YTD
- -22.90% to
- +5.45%
- 1 month
- Europe
- 1 month
- -3.97% to
- -3.21%
- 3 months
- -15.87% to
- -13.94%
- YTD
- -8.02% to
- +3.67%
- 1 month
- Asia
- 1 month
- -6.02% to
- -8.71%
- 3 months
- -20.52% to
- -17.49%
- YTD
- 13.54% to
- +0.13%
- 1 month
- Middle East / Africa
- 1 month
- -3.50% to
- -1.93%
- 3 months
- -9.33% to
- -6.78%
- YTD
- -9.48% to
- -0.63%
- 1 month
- All sectors expect the Middle East / Africa (which is negligible) have increased in value compared to a year ago.
- US
- How is the sector as a whole doing?
- EURUSD
- What is last week’s price range?
- High 1.15450
- Low 1.13097
- Close 1.13930
- What is the market sentiment?
- EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 63.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.71 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Dec 12 when EURUSD traded near 1.13724. The number of traders net-long is 47.7% higher than yesterday and 18.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 32.2% lower than yesterday and 19.6% lower from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
- BEARISH BIAS
- What is last week’s price range?
- Gold
- What is last week’s price range?
- High 1298.54
- Low 1276.50
- Close 1284.84
- What is the market sentiment?
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 74.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.96 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.6% higher than yesterday and 1.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.9% lower than yesterday and 19.7% higher from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias.
- MIXED BIAS
- What is last week’s price range?
- Geopolitics
- What are the main drivers in geopolitics?
- Japan’s Abe says vigilant to global economic risks clouding recovery
- No breakthrough in U.S. shutdown talks, Pelosi plans new legislation
- Democrat Warren takes economic message to Iowa in kickoff to 2020 race
- Iran plans naval drills with Russia in Caspian Sea
- New Venezuela congress chief says Maduro will be usurper president
- UK’s May could seek more time before final Brexit vote: paper
- Clashes erupt in Paris as ‘yellow vests’ protest at unrepentant Macron
- Brazil military uneasy with Bolsonaro’s openness to U.S. base: source
- Moscow says FBI arrested Russian a day after it detained ex‑U.S. Marine
- Bolton warns Syria against use of chemical weapons
- What are the main drivers in geopolitics?
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
Sources:
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
- https://bluegoldresearch.com/retail-sentiment-crude-oil
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-scoreboard
- https://www.bloomberg.com/research/sectorandindustry/sectors/sectordetail.asp?region=US
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
- https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75
- https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
- https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
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