01072019 Trade Plan — Short-term rejection of Daily level

07 Jan 01072019 Trade Plan — Short-term rejection of Daily level

01072019 Trade Plan — Short-term rejec­tion of Dai­ly level

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon
	1/3	1/4	1/5	1/6	1/7
Beers night before	0	0	10	2	0
Hours sleep	8.5	7	6	8	8.5
Sleep well?	3	2	1	2	2
Mela­tonin	0	0	0	0	1x
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	1	2	1	1	2
Exer­cise yester(to)day	3	3	2	2	3
Grat­i­tude	5	5	5	5	5
Joy	5	5	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	1	1	1
Focus	3	2	1	2	2
Cof­fees today	morn­ing espres­so, after­noon big hot chocolate	morn­ing espres­so, after­noon espresso	1 espres­so. 1/2 coffee	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours
Inter­mit­tent fasting	yes	no	no	no	yes
Water 2.2L bottles	2	2	2	2	2
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Time bed yesterday	22:00	22:30	05:00	01:30	11:00

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • I think I am get­ting bet­ter and bet­ter over­all. Went to get my fin­ger looked at and that seems to be heal­ing as well. 
• How do you feel?
  • I feel not too sharp today. Even though I slept 8.5 hours I took a sleep­ing pill so might be the effect from that and the lack of sleep Fri­day to Sat­ur­day night. I usu­al­ly need a cou­ple of days to work that off. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yesterday?
  • Last Fri­day we start­ed the AS with a bounce off the 46.85 lev­el which we had found sup­port at at the end of Thursday’s NY session. 
    • This is also the 30M VWAP mean level.
  • The bounce con­firmed a trend con­tin­u­a­tion swing rever­sal and we start­ed a new uptrend
  • After cross­ing the UKC PA walked the UKC for a while until we had a spike into 47.79 lev­el and got pushed back hard down to 47.45 but was unable to break the uptrend
    • Which is also the WR1 47.321 level
  • We then broke through DR1 47.906 before Lon­don open
  • Then around NY open and just after we test­ed the same lev­el again with a hard drop and got pushed back hard to start a 30M cli­max swing. 
  • So pay atten­tion to the 47.90 level.
  • The cli­max swing went up to 49.423 lev­el before rolling over
• What were the tech­ni­cal lev­els? Look at TV.
  • The 47.90 lev­el had was test­ed for sup­port on sev­er­al occa­sions with high­er TV.

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • The API report will come out tomorrow.
• EIA report
  • The EIA report will come out on Wednes­day and no fore­cast has been made as of yet. 
• EURUSD
  • The pair has been rang­ing between about 1.13 to 1.14704 and we did cross the 50MA on the Dai­ly so we might see a move up
• Addi­tion­al

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

	Week	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Week
	12/24 — 12/28	12/31	1/1	1/2	1/3	1/4	12/31 — 1/4
High	47.064	46.634	0	47.918	47.647	49.395	49.395
Low	42.603	44.859	0	44.505	45.536	46.819	44.505
Close	45.219	45.405	0	46.457	46.979	48.483	48.483
Pip move	446.1	177.5	0	341.3	211.1	257.6	489
PP	44.962	45.633	0	46.293	46.721	48.232	47.461
dis­tance	235.9	77.4	0	178.8	118.5	141.3	295.6
R1	47.321	46.407	0	48.081	47.906	49.645	50.417
dis­tance	446.1	177.5	0	341.3	211.1	257.6	489
R2	49.423	47.408	0	49.706	48.832	50.808	52.351
dis­tance	-210.2	-100.1	0	-162.5	-92.6	-116.3	-193.4
S1	42.86	44.632	0	44.668	45.795	47.069	45.527
dis­tance	-446.1	-177.5	0	-341.3	-211.1	-257.6	-489
S2	40.501	43.858	0	42.88	44.61	45.656	42.571
TV	275,458	38,261	0	79,757	85,113	81,139	284,270
50MA	64.66	55.264	0	54.803	54.42	54.062	64.361
200MA		65.327	0	65.23	65.138	65.057
ATR	4.3656	2.3752		2.4964	2.5136	2.5202	4.4173

• After NYE we had a con­sis­tent TV range of around the 80K
• The low amount before that is prob­a­bly due to the holidays
• What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?
  • Piv­ot levels
    • DPP moved up Fri­day by 1.5 in a sig­nif­i­cant run to try and break the down trend that we have been in for the last 2 months
    • The PP lev­els have wid­ed a lit­tle bit but not as much as before. Nor­mal­ly, we can see a big dis­tance between PP lev­els with a big move and then retract to about half of those dis­tances to set up for the next move. This time the big move hap­pened with about 25–50% more dis­tance between the lev­els. Could this mean there is still momen­tum left in the move up? I will keep an eye on this. 
  • Dai­ly chart
    • Mov­ing Averages
      • The Dai­ly 50MA is at 54.062 so it is still on the decline and so is the 200MA at 65.057
  • 4H chart
    • Last week we crossed the VWAP mean and stayed over it. How­ev­er, VWAP is now near the UKC and VWAP is look­ing to poten­tial­ly tight­en to set­up the next big move
• How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?
  • Note that on the sup­port side the Week­ly 47.5 and WPP 47.461 are around the same level
    • Not far off is the DS1 47.069
    • A lev­el down we have DS2 45.656 and WS1 45.527 at very close levels
  • On the resis­tance side we have DR1 49.645 and Dai­ly 49.8 around the same level
    • WR1 50.417 and DR2 50.808 aren’t that far either
    • And then we have almost iden­ti­cal lev­els of Dai­ly 52.30 and WR2 52.351
  • I would con­sid­er these lev­els more sig­nif­i­cant because of the overlap

Cur­rent	48.48
Price
Dai­ly	Price	Dis­tance
50MA	54.42	594
200MA	65.138	1,666

S/R	kind	lev­el	Dis­tance
R6	WR2	52.351	387.1
R5	Dai­ly	52.3	382
R4	DR2	50.808	232.8
R3	WR1	50.417	193.7
R2	Dai­ly	49.8	132
R1	DR1	49.645	116.5
CURRENT		48.48
S1	DPP	48.232	-24.8
S2	Week­ly	47.5	-98
S3	WPP	47.461	-101.9
S4	DS1	47.069	-141.1
S5	DS2	45.656	-282.4
S6	WS1	45.527	-295.3

Trade Plan

• Look for exhaus­tion into the 49.80 lev­el and take a Swing Rever­sal Short play

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Only take Swing Rever­sal plays

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • We opened just under the 5M UKC which is also just under the 30M UKC lev­el and we are near a pre­vi­ous 30M swing high we had dur­ing AS
    • This was the 49.30 level
  • We are now around the 49.10 lev­el and we are hav­ing a lot of long wicked can­dles show­ing on the 5M so there might be some accu­mu­la­tion or dis­tri­b­u­tion going on
  • I feel like the 30M and 4H are show­ing buy­ing weak­ness and we might be rolling over to let’s say the 4H UKC to poten­tial­ly CAS before we con­tin­ue the bull­ish effort
    • So in that light this could be dis­tri­b­u­tion at the top on the 5M
    • We are how­ev­er 50–70 ticks away from the DR1 49.645 and Dai­ly 49.80 lev­els so we might use a run up there as part of this distribution
  • Spread is 3.4
  • T1 win 5.5 ticks with opti­mistic sizing
  • We seem to have run into sup­port at 49 lev­el and are restest­ing pre­vi­ous swing high
  • KC chan­nel has widened and VWAP looks to fol­low suit how­ev­er VWAP is above the KC mid­way point though
  • Looks like there is momen­tum build up to break to a new swing high
    • Or this could be the high­er time frame rejec­tion of this swing high lev­el of 49.40
    • We are get­ting clos­er and clos­er to the WR1 49.645 and Dai­ly 49.80 level
  • T2 loss 12.1 ticks at opti­mistic sizing
  • T3 loss 16.8 ticks at opti­mistic sizing
  • I was right on the direc­tion of the mar­ket but got stopped out. The first because I got in too soon the sec­ond because I put in my SL too tight
    • Then after­wards I felt like it would still be going in my way but hes­i­tat­ed to take anoth­er short hav­ing just lost two positions
    • Also I was telling myself that this is prob­a­bly a 30M swing rever­sal play and not a 5M one so was look­ing at the 30M to close but it hadn’t at the time so didn’t take a position
  • In order for me to take anoth­er short I would like to see a failed swing high on the 5M
  • Could this be dis­tri­b­u­tion? Smart mon­ey sell­ing of into strength. Price has been jacked up to new highs and PA seems very slug­gish as if smart mon­ey doesn’t want the mar­ket to move too much (so that they can sell at a high­er price?)
  • T4 win 5.5 ticks with opti­mistic sizing
  • T5 win 2.4 ticks with opti­mistic sizing
  • We bounced off 5M 50MA on low TV and then failed to make a swing high and then con­se­quent­ly we dropped down to LKC on high­er TV
    • Let’s see if this 49 lev­el can hold and pos­si­bly set up for anoth­er play
    • I am look­ing for 5M to break the LKC and show signs of strength at this lev­el for a high­er time frame trend con­tin­u­a­tion swing rever­sal but we are near­ing NY open so best to be extra cautious
    • A bull­ish can­dle formed on top of the LKC and I didn’t get on board since oth­er cri­te­ria of my trad­ing plan hadn’t been met but this is def­i­nite­ly a scalp oppor­tu­ni­ty. Still hap­py I didn’t take it.
  • I am going to quit for today and come back tomor­row bet­ter than I was today

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • SR @ 30M UKC touch
    • Near Swing high and 5m can­dle was behav­ing reluc­tant to break higher
      • Entry
        • 49.218
  • SL
    • 49.277
  • TP
    • 48.947
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I cov­ered at 49.163 for a 5.5 tick profit
    • I see PA hov­er­ing around the lev­el I cov­ered at and would like to pre­tend that this is the rea­son why I cov­ered but that’s not true. I cov­ered because I want­ed to take a prof­it and I was just trad­ing my P/L. I hope this move goes well in my favor so I can feel the pain of all the prof­it I left on the table.

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal 30M Swing High
      • We were at the 30M swing high and there was a bear­ish can­dle on the 5M so took a short accord­ing to my rules
      • Entry
        • 49.455
  • SL
    • 49.469
  • TP
    • 49.338
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Stopped out at 49.576
    • Loss 12.1 ticks

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Same as T2 but now clos­er to DR1 49.645
    • Entry
      • 49.533
  • SL
    • 49.658
  • TP
    • 49.323
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Stopped out at 49.701 on a spike burst. Could be stop hunters because we are at a high­er time frame tech­ni­cal level
    • Loss ‑16.8 ticks
    • Price reversed after I got tak­en out so next time con­sid­er a wider SL

• T4
  • Why? What do I see?
    • 30 M Swing Reversal
    • Entry
      • 49.372
  • SL
    • 49.475
  • TP
    • 48.662
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 30M 5MA at 49.317
    • Win 5.5 ticks

• T5
  • Why? What do I see?
    • 30 M Swing Reversal
    • Entry
      • 49.410
  • SL
    • 49.594
  • TP
    • 48.860
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 30M 5MA at 49.386
    • Win 2.4 ticks

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
  • I tried to be more con­science of let­ting trades play out but then at around 5 ticks prof­it I felt that I should pock­et some. But then When I had the two loss­es it blew away my prof­its and set me at a loss. I should real­ly learn how to let my trades play out. The way to do that is to just prac­tice. And how can I prac­tice if I’m scared of los­ing mon­ey? I don’t care about the mon­ey I care about mak­ing good trades and that’s what I should learn. Be fear­less and method­i­cal. I did try to move my SL in my favor but once PA showed weak­ness in the move I cov­ered. This weak­ness how­ev­er wasn’t weak­ness just inde­ci­sion at a tech­ni­cal lev­el. Live and learn my friend. Live and learn. 
  • After tak­ing two fai­ly big loss­es I feel I should have cut down my posi­tion siz­ing from opti­mistic to con­ser­v­a­tive but I felt like mak­ing more of the mon­ey back that I lost which is not the best way to do it. Also in the past I had a rule of 3 where­by if I took 3 loss­es I would scale down (or even quit). I’ll go by that rule again.
  • I was right in my approach how­ev­er I got on board to quick and weak­ness hadn’t ful­ly set in yet. 
• P/L for the day
  • -15.5 ticks

Dai­ly Report Card

• Only take Swing Rever­sal plays
  • Over­all Progress
    • I did obey this rule and learned a valu­able lesson
      • If PA moves away from 5M KC look at the 30M for clues on a pos­si­ble swing rever­sal play
  • What did I do well?
    • I let my SL play out
  • What do I need to improve?
    • Sto­ry of my trad­ing life. Let win­ners run.
    • Be more accu­rate in describ­ing my trade man­age­ment. After I took a loss that kin­da went out of the win­dow. In my defence since I am on the 5M time frame PA moves fast and thus I’d like to keep my eye on the chart  more than I want to write about it.
  • Lessons learned
    • Overex­tend­ed plays on the 5M can cre­ate oppor­tu­ni­ties on the 30M be mind­ful of this. 
  • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
    • 3

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.