
07 Jan 01072019 Trade Plan — Short-term rejection of Daily level
01072019 Trade Plan — Short-term rejection of Daily level
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon |
1/3 | 1/4 | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/7 | |
Beers night before | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
Hours sleep | 8.5 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8.5 |
Sleep well? | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1x |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Coffees today | morning espresso, afternoon big hot chocolate | morning espresso, afternoon espresso | 1 espresso. 1/2 coffee | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours |
Intermittent fasting | yes | no | no | no | yes |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 22:00 | 22:30 | 05:00 | 01:30 | 11:00 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I think I am getting better and better overall. Went to get my finger looked at and that seems to be healing as well.
- How do you feel?
- I feel not too sharp today. Even though I slept 8.5 hours I took a sleeping pill so might be the effect from that and the lack of sleep Friday to Saturday night. I usually need a couple of days to work that off.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- Last Friday we started the AS with a bounce off the 46.85 level which we had found support at at the end of Thursday’s NY session.
- This is also the 30M VWAP mean level.
- The bounce confirmed a trend continuation swing reversal and we started a new uptrend
- After crossing the UKC PA walked the UKC for a while until we had a spike into 47.79 level and got pushed back hard down to 47.45 but was unable to break the uptrend
- Which is also the WR1 47.321 level
- We then broke through DR1 47.906 before London open
- Then around NY open and just after we tested the same level again with a hard drop and got pushed back hard to start a 30M climax swing.
- So pay attention to the 47.90 level.
- The climax swing went up to 49.423 level before rolling over
- Last Friday we started the AS with a bounce off the 46.85 level which we had found support at at the end of Thursday’s NY session.
- What were the technical levels? Look at TV.
- The 47.90 level had was tested for support on several occasions with higher TV.
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- The API report will come out tomorrow.
- EIA report
- The EIA report will come out on Wednesday and no forecast has been made as of yet.
- EURUSD
- The pair has been ranging between about 1.13 to 1.14704 and we did cross the 50MA on the Daily so we might see a move up
- Additional
Intraday Technical Analysis
Week | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Week | |
12/24 — 12/28 | 12/31 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 1/3 | 1/4 | 12/31 — 1/4 | |
High | 47.064 | 46.634 | 0 | 47.918 | 47.647 | 49.395 | 49.395 |
Low | 42.603 | 44.859 | 0 | 44.505 | 45.536 | 46.819 | 44.505 |
Close | 45.219 | 45.405 | 0 | 46.457 | 46.979 | 48.483 | 48.483 |
Pip move | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 | 341.3 | 211.1 | 257.6 | 489 |
PP | 44.962 | 45.633 | 0 | 46.293 | 46.721 | 48.232 | 47.461 |
distance | 235.9 | 77.4 | 0 | 178.8 | 118.5 | 141.3 | 295.6 |
R1 | 47.321 | 46.407 | 0 | 48.081 | 47.906 | 49.645 | 50.417 |
distance | 446.1 | 177.5 | 0 | 341.3 | 211.1 | 257.6 | 489 |
R2 | 49.423 | 47.408 | 0 | 49.706 | 48.832 | 50.808 | 52.351 |
distance | -210.2 | -100.1 | 0 | -162.5 | -92.6 | -116.3 | -193.4 |
S1 | 42.86 | 44.632 | 0 | 44.668 | 45.795 | 47.069 | 45.527 |
distance | -446.1 | -177.5 | 0 | -341.3 | -211.1 | -257.6 | -489 |
S2 | 40.501 | 43.858 | 0 | 42.88 | 44.61 | 45.656 | 42.571 |
TV | 275,458 | 38,261 | 0 | 79,757 | 85,113 | 81,139 | 284,270 |
50MA | 64.66 | 55.264 | 0 | 54.803 | 54.42 | 54.062 | 64.361 |
200MA | 65.327 | 0 | 65.23 | 65.138 | 65.057 | ||
ATR | 4.3656 | 2.3752 | 2.4964 | 2.5136 | 2.5202 | 4.4173 |
- After NYE we had a consistent TV range of around the 80K
- The low amount before that is probably due to the holidays
- What are the most important technical levels in the market?
- Pivot levels
- DPP moved up Friday by 1.5 in a significant run to try and break the down trend that we have been in for the last 2 months
- The PP levels have wided a little bit but not as much as before. Normally, we can see a big distance between PP levels with a big move and then retract to about half of those distances to set up for the next move. This time the big move happened with about 25–50% more distance between the levels. Could this mean there is still momentum left in the move up? I will keep an eye on this.
- Daily chart
- Moving Averages
- The Daily 50MA is at 54.062 so it is still on the decline and so is the 200MA at 65.057
- Moving Averages
- 4H chart
- Last week we crossed the VWAP mean and stayed over it. However, VWAP is now near the UKC and VWAP is looking to potentially tighten to setup the next big move
- Pivot levels
- How far is the market from important technical levels?
- Note that on the support side the Weekly 47.5 and WPP 47.461 are around the same level
- Not far off is the DS1 47.069
- A level down we have DS2 45.656 and WS1 45.527 at very close levels
- On the resistance side we have DR1 49.645 and Daily 49.8 around the same level
- WR1 50.417 and DR2 50.808 aren’t that far either
- And then we have almost identical levels of Daily 52.30 and WR2 52.351
- I would consider these levels more significant because of the overlap
- Note that on the support side the Weekly 47.5 and WPP 47.461 are around the same level
Current | 48.48 | |
Price | ||
Daily | Price | Distance |
50MA | 54.42 | 594 |
200MA | 65.138 | 1,666 |
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | WR2 | 52.351 | 387.1 |
R5 | Daily | 52.3 | 382 |
R4 | DR2 | 50.808 | 232.8 |
R3 | WR1 | 50.417 | 193.7 |
R2 | Daily | 49.8 | 132 |
R1 | DR1 | 49.645 | 116.5 |
CURRENT | 48.48 | ||
S1 | DPP | 48.232 | -24.8 |
S2 | Weekly | 47.5 | -98 |
S3 | WPP | 47.461 | -101.9 |
S4 | DS1 | 47.069 | -141.1 |
S5 | DS2 | 45.656 | -282.4 |
S6 | WS1 | 45.527 | -295.3 |
Trade Plan
- Look for exhaustion into the 49.80 level and take a Swing Reversal Short play
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take Swing Reversal plays
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- We opened just under the 5M UKC which is also just under the 30M UKC level and we are near a previous 30M swing high we had during AS
- This was the 49.30 level
- We are now around the 49.10 level and we are having a lot of long wicked candles showing on the 5M so there might be some accumulation or distribution going on
- I feel like the 30M and 4H are showing buying weakness and we might be rolling over to let’s say the 4H UKC to potentially CAS before we continue the bullish effort
- So in that light this could be distribution at the top on the 5M
- We are however 50–70 ticks away from the DR1 49.645 and Daily 49.80 levels so we might use a run up there as part of this distribution
- Spread is 3.4
- T1 win 5.5 ticks with optimistic sizing
- We seem to have run into support at 49 level and are restesting previous swing high
- KC channel has widened and VWAP looks to follow suit however VWAP is above the KC midway point though
- Looks like there is momentum build up to break to a new swing high
- Or this could be the higher time frame rejection of this swing high level of 49.40
- We are getting closer and closer to the WR1 49.645 and Daily 49.80 level
- T2 loss 12.1 ticks at optimistic sizing
- T3 loss 16.8 ticks at optimistic sizing
- I was right on the direction of the market but got stopped out. The first because I got in too soon the second because I put in my SL too tight
- Then afterwards I felt like it would still be going in my way but hesitated to take another short having just lost two positions
- Also I was telling myself that this is probably a 30M swing reversal play and not a 5M one so was looking at the 30M to close but it hadn’t at the time so didn’t take a position
- In order for me to take another short I would like to see a failed swing high on the 5M
- Could this be distribution? Smart money selling of into strength. Price has been jacked up to new highs and PA seems very sluggish as if smart money doesn’t want the market to move too much (so that they can sell at a higher price?)
- T4 win 5.5 ticks with optimistic sizing
- T5 win 2.4 ticks with optimistic sizing
- We bounced off 5M 50MA on low TV and then failed to make a swing high and then consequently we dropped down to LKC on higher TV
- Let’s see if this 49 level can hold and possibly set up for another play
- I am looking for 5M to break the LKC and show signs of strength at this level for a higher time frame trend continuation swing reversal but we are nearing NY open so best to be extra cautious
- A bullish candle formed on top of the LKC and I didn’t get on board since other criteria of my trading plan hadn’t been met but this is definitely a scalp opportunity. Still happy I didn’t take it.
- I am going to quit for today and come back tomorrow better than I was today
- We opened just under the 5M UKC which is also just under the 30M UKC level and we are near a previous 30M swing high we had during AS
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- SR @ 30M UKC touch
- Near Swing high and 5m candle was behaving reluctant to break higher
- Entry
- 49.218
- Entry
- SL
- 49.277
- TP
- 48.947
- Trade Management
- I covered at 49.163 for a 5.5 tick profit
- I see PA hovering around the level I covered at and would like to pretend that this is the reason why I covered but that’s not true. I covered because I wanted to take a profit and I was just trading my P/L. I hope this move goes well in my favor so I can feel the pain of all the profit I left on the table.
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal 30M Swing High
- We were at the 30M swing high and there was a bearish candle on the 5M so took a short according to my rules
- Entry
- 49.455
- Swing Reversal 30M Swing High
- SL
- 49.469
- TP
- 49.338
- Trade Management
- Stopped out at 49.576
- Loss 12.1 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T3
- Why? What do I see?
- Same as T2 but now closer to DR1 49.645
- Entry
- 49.533
- SL
- 49.658
- TP
- 49.323
- Trade Management
- Stopped out at 49.701 on a spike burst. Could be stop hunters because we are at a higher time frame technical level
- Loss ‑16.8 ticks
- Price reversed after I got taken out so next time consider a wider SL
- Why? What do I see?
- T4
- Why? What do I see?
- 30 M Swing Reversal
- Entry
- 49.372
- SL
- 49.475
- TP
- 48.662
- Trade Management
- Covered at 30M 5MA at 49.317
- Win 5.5 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T5
- Why? What do I see?
- 30 M Swing Reversal
- Entry
- 49.410
- SL
- 49.594
- TP
- 48.860
- Trade Management
- Covered at 30M 5MA at 49.386
- Win 2.4 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I tried to be more conscience of letting trades play out but then at around 5 ticks profit I felt that I should pocket some. But then When I had the two losses it blew away my profits and set me at a loss. I should really learn how to let my trades play out. The way to do that is to just practice. And how can I practice if I’m scared of losing money? I don’t care about the money I care about making good trades and that’s what I should learn. Be fearless and methodical. I did try to move my SL in my favor but once PA showed weakness in the move I covered. This weakness however wasn’t weakness just indecision at a technical level. Live and learn my friend. Live and learn.
- After taking two faily big losses I feel I should have cut down my position sizing from optimistic to conservative but I felt like making more of the money back that I lost which is not the best way to do it. Also in the past I had a rule of 3 whereby if I took 3 losses I would scale down (or even quit). I’ll go by that rule again.
- I was right in my approach however I got on board to quick and weakness hadn’t fully set in yet.
- P/L for the day
- -15.5 ticks
Daily Report Card
- Only take Swing Reversal plays
- Overall Progress
- I did obey this rule and learned a valuable lesson
- If PA moves away from 5M KC look at the 30M for clues on a possible swing reversal play
- I did obey this rule and learned a valuable lesson
- What did I do well?
- I let my SL play out
- What do I need to improve?
- Story of my trading life. Let winners run.
- Be more accurate in describing my trade management. After I took a loss that kinda went out of the window. In my defence since I am on the 5M time frame PA moves fast and thus I’d like to keep my eye on the chart more than I want to write about it.
- Lessons learned
- Overextended plays on the 5M can create opportunities on the 30M be mindful of this.
- Grade yourself 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
- 3
- Overall Progress
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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