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01072019 Trade Plan — Short-term rejection of Daily level

Daily Report Card

01072019 Trade Plan — Short-term rejection of Daily level

01072019 Trade Plan — Short-term rejec­tion of Dai­ly level

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeThuFriSatSunMon
Beers night before001020
Hours sleep8.57688.5
Sleep well?32122
Neg­a­tive thoughts?12112
Exer­cise yester(to)day33223
Cof­fees todaymorn­ing espres­so, after­noon big hot chocolatemorn­ing espres­so, after­noon espresso1 espres­so. 1/2 coffee1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours
Inter­mit­tent fastingyesnononoyes
Water 2.2L bottles22222
Time bed yesterday22:0022:3005:0001:3011:00

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I think I am get­ting bet­ter and bet­ter over­all. Went to get my fin­ger looked at and that seems to be heal­ing as well. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel not too sharp today. Even though I slept 8.5 hours I took a sleep­ing pill so might be the effect from that and the lack of sleep Fri­day to Sat­ur­day night. I usu­al­ly need a cou­ple of days to work that off. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • Last Fri­day we start­ed the AS with a bounce off the 46.85 lev­el which we had found sup­port at at the end of Thursday’s NY session. 
      • This is also the 30M VWAP mean level.
    • The bounce con­firmed a trend con­tin­u­a­tion swing rever­sal and we start­ed a new uptrend
    • After cross­ing the UKC PA walked the UKC for a while until we had a spike into 47.79 lev­el and got pushed back hard down to 47.45 but was unable to break the uptrend
      • Which is also the WR1 47.321 level
    • We then broke through DR1 47.906 before Lon­don open
    • Then around NY open and just after we test­ed the same lev­el again with a hard drop and got pushed back hard to start a 30M cli­max swing. 
    • So pay atten­tion to the 47.90 level.
    • The cli­max swing went up to 49.423 lev­el before rolling over
  • What were the tech­ni­cal lev­els? Look at TV.
    • The 47.90 lev­el had was test­ed for sup­port on sev­er­al occa­sions with high­er TV.

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • The API report will come out tomorrow.
  • EIA report
    • The EIA report will come out on Wednes­day and no fore­cast has been made as of yet. 
    • The pair has been rang­ing between about 1.13 to 1.14704 and we did cross the 50MA on the Dai­ly so we might see a move up
  • Addi­tion­al

    Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

       12/24 — 12/2812/311/11/21/31/412/31 — 1/4
    Pip move446.1177.50341.3211.1257.6489
    200MA         65.327065.2365.13865.057          
    ATR4.36562.3752         2.49642.51362.52024.4173
    • After NYE we had a con­sis­tent TV range of around the 80K
    • The low amount before that is prob­a­bly due to the holidays
    • What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?
      • Piv­ot levels
        • DPP moved up Fri­day by 1.5 in a sig­nif­i­cant run to try and break the down trend that we have been in for the last 2 months
        • The PP lev­els have wid­ed a lit­tle bit but not as much as before. Nor­mal­ly, we can see a big dis­tance between PP lev­els with a big move and then retract to about half of those dis­tances to set up for the next move. This time the big move hap­pened with about 25–50% more dis­tance between the lev­els. Could this mean there is still momen­tum left in the move up? I will keep an eye on this. 
      • Dai­ly chart
        • Mov­ing Averages
          • The Dai­ly 50MA is at 54.062 so it is still on the decline and so is the 200MA at 65.057
      • 4H chart
        • Last week we crossed the VWAP mean and stayed over it. How­ev­er, VWAP is now near the UKC and VWAP is look­ing to poten­tial­ly tight­en to set­up the next big move
    • How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?
      • Note that on the sup­port side the Week­ly 47.5 and WPP 47.461 are around the same level
        • Not far off is the DS1 47.069
        • A lev­el down we have DS2 45.656 and WS1 45.527 at very close levels
      • On the resis­tance side we have DR1 49.645 and Dai­ly 49.8 around the same level
        • WR1 50.417 and DR2 50.808 aren’t that far either
        • And then we have almost iden­ti­cal lev­els of Dai­ly 52.30 and WR2 52.351
      • I would con­sid­er these lev­els more sig­nif­i­cant because of the overlap

    CURRENT   48.48    

    Trade Plan

    • Look for exhaus­tion into the 49.80 lev­el and take a Swing Rever­sal Short play

    My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

    • Only take Swing Rever­sal plays

    Read­ing the Tape

    • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
      • We opened just under the 5M UKC which is also just under the 30M UKC lev­el and we are near a pre­vi­ous 30M swing high we had dur­ing AS
        • This was the 49.30 level
      • We are now around the 49.10 lev­el and we are hav­ing a lot of long wicked can­dles show­ing on the 5M so there might be some accu­mu­la­tion or dis­tri­b­u­tion going on
      • I feel like the 30M and 4H are show­ing buy­ing weak­ness and we might be rolling over to let’s say the 4H UKC to poten­tial­ly CAS before we con­tin­ue the bull­ish effort
        • So in that light this could be dis­tri­b­u­tion at the top on the 5M
        • We are how­ev­er 50–70 ticks away from the DR1 49.645 and Dai­ly 49.80 lev­els so we might use a run up there as part of this distribution
      • Spread is 3.4
      • T1 win 5.5 ticks with opti­mistic sizing
      • We seem to have run into sup­port at 49 lev­el and are restest­ing pre­vi­ous swing high
      • KC chan­nel has widened and VWAP looks to fol­low suit how­ev­er VWAP is above the KC mid­way point though
      • Looks like there is momen­tum build up to break to a new swing high
        • Or this could be the high­er time frame rejec­tion of this swing high lev­el of 49.40
        • We are get­ting clos­er and clos­er to the WR1 49.645 and Dai­ly 49.80 level
      • T2 loss 12.1 ticks at opti­mistic sizing
      • T3 loss 16.8 ticks at opti­mistic sizing
      • I was right on the direc­tion of the mar­ket but got stopped out. The first because I got in too soon the sec­ond because I put in my SL too tight
        • Then after­wards I felt like it would still be going in my way but hes­i­tat­ed to take anoth­er short hav­ing just lost two positions
        • Also I was telling myself that this is prob­a­bly a 30M swing rever­sal play and not a 5M one so was look­ing at the 30M to close but it hadn’t at the time so didn’t take a position
      • In order for me to take anoth­er short I would like to see a failed swing high on the 5M
      • Could this be dis­tri­b­u­tion? Smart mon­ey sell­ing of into strength. Price has been jacked up to new highs and PA seems very slug­gish as if smart mon­ey doesn’t want the mar­ket to move too much (so that they can sell at a high­er price?)
      • T4 win 5.5 ticks with opti­mistic sizing
      • T5 win 2.4 ticks with opti­mistic sizing
      • We bounced off 5M 50MA on low TV and then failed to make a swing high and then con­se­quent­ly we dropped down to LKC on high­er TV
        • Let’s see if this 49 lev­el can hold and pos­si­bly set up for anoth­er play
        • I am look­ing for 5M to break the LKC and show signs of strength at this lev­el for a high­er time frame trend con­tin­u­a­tion swing rever­sal but we are near­ing NY open so best to be extra cautious
        • A bull­ish can­dle formed on top of the LKC and I didn’t get on board since oth­er cri­te­ria of my trad­ing plan hadn’t been met but this is def­i­nite­ly a scalp oppor­tu­ni­ty. Still hap­py I didn’t take it.
      • I am going to quit for today and come back tomor­row bet­ter than I was today

    Trade Man­age­ment

    Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

    • T1
      • Why? What do I see?
        • SR @ 30M UKC touch
        • Near Swing high and 5m can­dle was behav­ing reluc­tant to break higher
          • Entry
            • 49.218
      • SL
        • 49.277
      • TP
        • 48.947
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • I cov­ered at 49.163 for a 5.5 tick profit
        • I see PA hov­er­ing around the lev­el I cov­ered at and would like to pre­tend that this is the rea­son why I cov­ered but that’s not true. I cov­ered because I want­ed to take a prof­it and I was just trad­ing my P/L. I hope this move goes well in my favor so I can feel the pain of all the prof­it I left on the table.
    • T2
      • Why? What do I see?
        • Swing Rever­sal 30M Swing High
          • We were at the 30M swing high and there was a bear­ish can­dle on the 5M so took a short accord­ing to my rules
          • Entry
            • 49.455
      • SL
        • 49.469
      • TP
        • 49.338
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Stopped out at 49.576
        • Loss 12.1 ticks
    • T3
      • Why? What do I see?
        • Same as T2 but now clos­er to DR1 49.645
        • Entry
          • 49.533
      • SL
        • 49.658
      • TP
        • 49.323
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Stopped out at 49.701 on a spike burst. Could be stop hunters because we are at a high­er time frame tech­ni­cal level
        • Loss ‑16.8 ticks
        • Price reversed after I got tak­en out so next time con­sid­er a wider SL
    • T4
      • Why? What do I see?
        • 30 M Swing Reversal
        • Entry
          • 49.372
      • SL
        • 49.475
      • TP
        • 48.662
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Cov­ered at 30M 5MA at 49.317
        • Win 5.5 ticks
    • T5
      • Why? What do I see?
        • 30 M Swing Reversal
        • Entry
          • 49.410
      • SL
        • 49.594
      • TP
        • 48.860
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Cov­ered at 30M 5MA at 49.386
        • Win 2.4 ticks

    Trade Review

    • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
      • I tried to be more con­science of let­ting trades play out but then at around 5 ticks prof­it I felt that I should pock­et some. But then When I had the two loss­es it blew away my prof­its and set me at a loss. I should real­ly learn how to let my trades play out. The way to do that is to just prac­tice. And how can I prac­tice if I’m scared of los­ing mon­ey? I don’t care about the mon­ey I care about mak­ing good trades and that’s what I should learn. Be fear­less and method­i­cal. I did try to move my SL in my favor but once PA showed weak­ness in the move I cov­ered. This weak­ness how­ev­er wasn’t weak­ness just inde­ci­sion at a tech­ni­cal lev­el. Live and learn my friend. Live and learn. 
      • After tak­ing two fai­ly big loss­es I feel I should have cut down my posi­tion siz­ing from opti­mistic to con­ser­v­a­tive but I felt like mak­ing more of the mon­ey back that I lost which is not the best way to do it. Also in the past I had a rule of 3 where­by if I took 3 loss­es I would scale down (or even quit). I’ll go by that rule again.
      • I was right in my approach how­ev­er I got on board to quick and weak­ness hadn’t ful­ly set in yet. 
    • P/L for the day
      • -15.5 ticks

    Dai­ly Report Card

    • Only take Swing Rever­sal plays
      • Over­all Progress
        • I did obey this rule and learned a valu­able lesson
          • If PA moves away from 5M KC look at the 30M for clues on a pos­si­ble swing rever­sal play
      • What did I do well?
        • I let my SL play out
      • What do I need to improve?
        • Sto­ry of my trad­ing life. Let win­ners run.
        • Be more accu­rate in describ­ing my trade man­age­ment. After I took a loss that kin­da went out of the win­dow. In my defence since I am on the 5M time frame PA moves fast and thus I’d like to keep my eye on the chart  more than I want to write about it.
      • Lessons learned
        • Overex­tend­ed plays on the 5M can cre­ate oppor­tu­ni­ties on the 30M be mind­ful of this. 
      • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
        • 3


    Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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