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01082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

01082019 Thursday — Trade Plan & Journal

01082019 Thurs­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • R = Range
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical
  • AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat more consciously 
  • How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
    • Last 3 days not a com­plete 8 hours of sleep but 7.5 which sur­pris­ing­ly I can feel in terms of how sharp I feel. Which is less sharp.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
    • 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HHTF
    • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • HHTF R over­bought to PB to VWAP CAS to pos­si­ble more upside on short to medi­um term
  • HTF
    • Lev­els
      • Prev. High 58.807
      • PVAH 58.584
      • PPOC 58.444
      • PVAL 58.231
      • Prev. Low 57.804
    • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • We had 50MA prove to be good sup­port in the UT and yes­ter­day we broke this by hav­ing a short DT into D TT 57.50 lev­el (which this whole move could be con­sid­ered a BO from 57.50 to PB and CAS of this same level.
      • Since we moved back into KC as part of D TT we could expect more upside on the short to medi­um term
  • TTF
    • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
      • TTF D TT with lots of AD inside the KC and short term UT  and small PA PB to 50MA
        • Expect a pos­si­ble short term down­side before medi­um to long term upside

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • HTF D TT @ LKCCAS
    • Entry around 57.95
    • Tar­gets 58.10, 58.30, 58.55
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • HTF R 50MACAR
    • Entry around 58.05
    • Tar­gets 57.85, 57.60
  • Hypo 3 Rotational
    • 57.70 — 58.20

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
    • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • HHTF
        • HHTF R Over­bought PB to VWAP/200MA CAS
      • HTF
        • HTF D TT to pos­si­ble 50MACAR
      • TTF
        • Pos­si­ble TTF R
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • TTF R 200MABO as part of HTF 50MACAR
    • 16:35
      • HHTF
      • HTF
        • Move to HTF LKC pos­si­ble CAS but not look­ing con­vinc­ing as of yet
      • TTF
        • TTF R Over­sold with lots of AD going on just above LKC but look­ing like pos­si­ble absorp­tion for anoth­er leg down
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Unclear yet
    • 17:05
      • HHTF
      • HTF
        • HTF LKCCAS
      • TTF
        • TTF R Over­sold LKCCAS + BO to UKC
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Pos­si­ble TTF R 200MABO with tar­get HTF 50MA
    • 17:35
      • HHTF
      • HTF
        • Pos­si­ble Upper 2.0 SD CAS near 50MA plus end­ed pre­vi­ous peri­od quite bear­ish so sen­ti­ment could have changed here.
          • I will look for more bear­ish clues before get­ting in short though
      • TTF
        • TTF R 200MACAR
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Pos­si­ble ‘bounces up the lad­der’ before hav­ing a big drop
    • 18:05
      • HHTF
        • Still above VWAP
      • HTF
        • Pos­si­ble 50MACAR @ 2.0 SD and now bias is towards the short side, pos­si­ble LKCBD to run for 200MACAS on the long term
      • TTF
        • I’ve seen this pat­tern before and am try­ing to fig­ure out if I’m remem­ber­ing it right…
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Move down to HTFLKC pos­si­ble BD
    • 18:35
      • HHTF
        • Pos­si­ble VWAPBD
      • HTF
        • Squeeze in low­er KC, no real attempt at 50MA
      • TTF
        • PA very slow but fol­low­ing the pat­tern, still fuzzy on how this devel­ops but took a short with tar­get pre­vi­ous HTF swing low
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Run towards HTF 200MA
    • 19:05
      • HHTF
      • HTF
        • No move yet
      • TTF
        • Things look­ing less bear­ish at the moment but still trad­ing below 200MA how­ev­er pos­si­ble BO here
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • Unclear, might have to scratch my short position
    • 19:35
      • HHTF
      • HTF
      • TTF
        • No move yet
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
    • 20:05
      • HHTF
      • HTF
      • TTF
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • HTF D TT @ LKCCAS
    • Entry around 57.95
    • Tar­gets 58.10, 58.30, 58.55
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • HTF R 50MACAR
    • Entry around 58.05
    • Tar­gets 57.85, 57.60
  • Hypo 3 Rotational
    • 57.70 — 58.20





Dai­ly Report Card



Date:8/1/2019



Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ / A setups



Com­bined Score86



Process Report Card (10 each)

9Ses­sion PECS

9Hypos

10Mar­ket Prep

10Dai­ly review

10Progress tow. week­ly goal

48Total






Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%8Real-time analy­sis
2/210Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
2/25Setups tak­en
0/210Erro­neous Entries
1/25Erro­neous Exits

38total



  • Week­ly Goal
    • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
    • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Hypo 1 — 90% Hypo 2 — 90%
      • Again 2 hypos play­ing out. Sort of. Didn’t real­ly quite reach the overex­tend­ed lev­els I hypoth­e­sized but still pret­ty decent.
    • Real-time analy­sis — 80%
      • I had a great day today even though I lost in terms of P/L I gained in knowl­edge and con­fi­dence. I rec­og­nized the pat­tern devel­op­ing dur­ing the ses­sion but for­got the end­ing of it. I trad­ed it well for the most part but then start­ed doubt­ing the pat­tern and cut down on risk I had put on only to see it would hit my tar­gets after all. This is the first time see­ing the pat­tern with­in my cur­rent approach to under­stand­ing mar­ket nar­ra­tive and I’ll just be that much bet­ter next time. 
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • P: Did well here
    • E: Did well here. Stayed com­posed because I believed in the pat­tern….. Until I didn’t and because I start­ed doubt­ing I took off risk. At the time it was the right deci­sion, even though I would have banked a good prof­it if I hadn’t. “I’ll get you next time, Gad­get! NEXT TIME!!!” Sor­ry.. Had to do it 🙂
    • CS: Did well here. 
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • Trust my approach. Nobody does it the way I do it (at least that I know of:)) And that my friend is a good thing. 
  • Positive(s)
    • Learned to only trade in the direc­tion of my mar­ket nar­ra­tive and although it seems tempt­ing to take that short oppor­tu­ni­ty (for small prof­its, but big risk) just focus on the big­ger pic­ture and trade in align­ment with the big­ger pic­ture ie mar­ket narrative
    • Adjust­ed my intra-ses­sion tem­plate for log­ging clues to focus on clues in align­ment with mar­ket nar­ra­tive and for any signs of change in that nar­ra­tive. Did well here. 
  • Negative(s)
    • Like I said. I might have lost P/L but I learned so much today 🙂

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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