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01082019 Trade Plan — 4H UKC Trend Continuation - Bear Market Trader
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01082019 Trade Plan — 4H UKC Trend Continuation

Daily Report Card

01082019 Trade Plan — 4H UKC Trend Continuation

01082019 Trade Plan — 4H UKC Trend Continuation

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeFriSatSunMonTue
    1/41/51/61/71/8
Beers night before010200
Time bed yesterday223005:0001:3011:0022:07
woke up                   6:22
Hours sleep7688.58:15
Awake                    1:29
REM                  1:09
Light                   4:18
Deep                   1:19
Sleep well?21223
Mela­tonin0001x0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?21121
Exer­cise yester(to)day32233
Grat­i­tude55555
Joy55555
Anger11111
Fear11111
Focus21222
Cof­fees todaymorn­ing espres­so, after­noon espresso1 espres­so. 1/2 coffee1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 1.5 hours at 7:30am
Inter­mit­tent fastingnononoyesyes
Water L22223
Vit­a­minsyesyesyesyesyes

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I feel tired not exact­ly sure why that is. I went to bed ear­ly and got up ear­ly but feel as if I slept enough. My REM isn’t as good as it could be slight­ly below aver­age. I will see what I can do to improve that. Made a task in Any.do
  • How do you feel?
    • Oth­er than feel­ing a bit tired I feel good. Per­haps it’s the dip of the caf­feine that I had this morn­ing and my body is ask­ing for anoth­er pick-me-up. I’m not going to drink anoth­er cof­fee because I get hyped too much. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • Yes­ter­day we start­ed off the AS with an uptrend how­ev­er PA on the 30M looked small and inde­ci­sive but still fol­low­ing the uptrend. 
      • Could this be a high­er time frame dis­tri­b­u­tion stage?
      • All I know is that after­wards we did make a move down and the 4H chart is show­ing some weak­ness. How­ev­er weak­ness doesn’t mean a break of trend
    • The Lon­don start­ed off with a leg down into the 48.90 lev­el and reject­ed this and we made a new swing high
      • I put this rejec­tion to swing high in my play­book for fur­ther review and back­test­ing later
    • Dur­ing the Lon­don ses­sion we found sup­port at DR1 49.645 and made a swing low but still fol­low­ing the high­er time frame uptrend
      • This part of the leg I trad­ed yes­ter­day suc­cess­ful­ly but left prof­its on the table
        • This leg was a 30M swing rever­sal in my playbook
    • We then lat­er on after NY opened dropped to 30M 50MA in an exhaust­ed move to Swing high that broke through DR1 49.645 and Dai­ly 49.80 lev­el but couldn’t hold and we dropped back down to 48.60 below the 30M 50MA and have then made a pull­back to 50MA CAR

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Com­ing out lat­er today
  • EIA report
    • Com­ing out tomorrow
  • EURUSD
    • High 1.14826
    • Low 1.13930
    • Close 1.14741
  • Addi­tion­al
    • Oil sta­ble on trade talk opti­mism and OPEC cuts, but slow­down looms
      • US Chi­na trade talks started

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

      WedThuFriWeekMon
       1/21/31/412/31 — 1/41/7
High47.91847.64749.39549.39549.977
Low44.50545.53646.81944.50548.309
Close46.45746.97948.48348.48348.945
Pip move341.3211.1257.6489166.8
PP46.29346.72148.23247.46149.077
dis­tance178.8118.5141.3295.676.8
R148.08147.90649.64550.41749.845
dis­tance341.3211.1257.6489166.8
R249.70648.83250.80852.35150.745
dis­tance-162.5-92.6-116.3-193.4-90
S144.66845.79547.06945.52748.177
dis­tance-341.3-211.1-257.6-489-166.8
S242.8844.6145.65642.57147.409
TV79,75785,11381,139284,27069,608
50MA54.80354.4254.06264.36153.701
200MA65.2365.13865.057          64.979
ATR2.49642.51362.52024.41732.4609
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • We can see that yes­ter­day didn’t cre­ate too much dis­tance between the PP lev­els indi­cat­ing pos­si­bly that we are not in an uptrend on the high­er time frame
  • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
    • We have a Dai­ly at the 49.80 lev­el that we seem to have reject­ed before. Are we get­ting ready to roll over?
  • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
    • The 4H chart shows a pos­si­ble weak­en­ing in trend above the UKC and might be look­ing to roll over back into the KC to a pos­si­ble sup­port at VWAP mean around 48 lev­el and the a Week­ly lev­el at 47.50
    • The 30M shows PA below the 50MA and we might see a mean rever­sion down to 200MA which is at about the week­ly lev­el of 47.50
  • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
Cur­rent48.7
Price
Dai­lyPriceDis­tance
50MA53.701500
200MA64.9791,628

S/Rkindlev­elDis­tance
R6Dai­ly52.3360
R5DR250.745204.5
R4WR150.417171.7
R3DR149.845114.5
R2Dai­ly49.8110
R1DPP49.07737.7
CURRENT    48.7    
S1DS148.177-52.3
S2Week­ly47.5-120
S3WPP47.461-123.9
S4DS247.409-129.1
S5WS145.527-317.3
S6Dai­ly45.25-345
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • The AS found resis­tance at DPP 49.077 which is also around the 5M 200MA lev­el. We then dropped to 48.50 lev­el only to get pushed back hard which tells us there might be sup­port at 48.60–48.50 level
  • ATR
    • What is the ATR on the daily?
      • Is it increasing/decreasing?
      • 2.4609
        • It has decreased a bit but does­n’t look too significant

Trade Plan

  • Although the high­er time frames look like we might be rolling over the low­er time frames show we might have a swing high that could fail to make new highs. I will be look­ing for long entry to catch the swing high. After the high I’ll be look­ing for exhaus­tion to catch the ride down

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Only take swing rever­sal plays

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • Lon­don just opened with a move up to UKC and might break to find resis­tance at 200MA
    • I was wait­ing for PA to make a run for 200MA so that I could look for weak­ness and poten­tial­ly take the rever­sal but it dropped before this hap­pened and nev­er got out of KC bounds
    • Looks like it would have been a good trade since PA retraced all the way back down to Lon­don open
      • This could poten­tial­ly be a 4H BD into KC
    • We could see some inde­ci­sion in the mar­ket today since we are at a high­er time frame tech­ni­cal level
    • KC is widen­ing but PA is mak­ing small swings so like I said we might be set­ting up for range bound trad­ing which I’m not allowed to do as part of my goal to be con­sis­tent in mas­ter­ing swing rever­sals so I will col­lect data on the moves instead for my playbook
    • Inter­est­ing is that for the last few weeks we have had high­er than nor­mal spread indi­cat­ing less liq­uid­i­ty and today we most­ly around the 28/29 instead of the 34/35 we saw before
    • T1 loss ‑11.2 ticks on con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
    • DPP 49.077 is aligned with 30M 50MA
    • T2 Win 1.1 ticks at opti­mistic sizing
    • PA crossed 5M 200MA and is look­ing to poten­tial­ly break through DPP 49.077 level
    • PA feels a bit errat­ic at this lev­el which makes sense since it is a 30M 50MA level
    • And we broke clean through DPP and 30M 50MA
      • I’ll be look­ing for a failed swing high pat­tern on the 4H
    • PA moved to 49.30 lev­el which was a swing high last Fri­day and has halt­ed. Let’s see if this is a pull­back or reversal
    • I will look to the 30M for clues
    • T3 opti­mistic siz­ing win 4.1 ticks
    • 30M isn’t giv­ing me much of a clue
    • Just as I was about to think ah man I should have re-entered since PA was drop­ping it shot up again to new highs 
      • Gonna stay away from this for a while and look for high­er time frame clues as I am feel­ing a lit­tle ner­vous to take on trades here
        • I feel that per­haps I will take trades for the wrong reasons
    • 30M show­ing poten­tial weak­ness so took anoth­er trade
    • T4
      • Loss 20.2 ticks with opti­mistic sizing
      • Loss 24.3 ticks
    • I went out for a walk to clear my head because today’s ses­sion felt more tax­ing on my nerves than usu­al. Only to see the mar­ket move 50 ticks on my way. But won’t pity myself too much over that. There was also a per­son­al sit­u­a­tion going on but didn’t think that had any influ­ence on me but in hind­sight it looks like it did. All in all good les­son learned which I will describe under­neath in my trade review and dai­ly report card. 

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal
      • 5M at UKC look­ing to poten­tial­ly reverse so took a con­ser­v­a­tive short
      • This was also at 30M 1.5 SD
      • Entry
        • 48.949
    • SL
      • 49.051 few ticks above the 5M 200MA
    • TP
      • 48.750
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Got stopped out
      • Loss ‑11.2 ticks
      • I got in too ear­ly and should have wait­ed for a lit­tle more con­fir­ma­tion on the 5M
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal
      • Hit DPP 49.077 and 30M 50MA with uncon­vinc­ing bull­ish can­dle so took a short
      • Entry
        • Opti­mistic siz­ing at 49.046
    • SL
      • Few ticks above DPP 49.15
    • TP
      • 49.035
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at a quick prof­it at 49.035 for 1.1 tick profit
      • Rea­son for cov­er­ing is that even though the pre­ced­ing can­dle showed uncon­vinc­ing strength we didn’t drop below the bot­tom of the can­dle hence I covered
  • T3
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 30M Swing Reversal
      • 5M showed weak­ness with PA being out­side of 2.0SD and fol­lowed by bear­ish can­dle into 2.0 SD so I took a short
      • Entry
        • Opti­mistic siz­ing @ 49.267
    • SL
      • 49.434
    • TP
      • 49.094
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at 5M 5MA @ 49.226 at a 4.1 tick prof­it squar­ing me off basi­cal­ly mon­e­tary-wise on today’s trades. How­ev­er, just look­ing at tick P/L I am still down
      • I should have stayed in the trade longer but was trad­ing my P/L. I feel like re-enter­ing again but that would give me a ter­ri­ble R/R ratio so will look for a failed swing high on the 5M before enter­ing a short which prob­a­bly won’t come
  • T4
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 30M Swing Reversal
      • 5M showed weak­ness with a failed swing high
      • 30M not look­ing con­vinc­ing to break swing high lev­el so took a short
      • Entry
        • 49.317
    • SL
      • 49.45
        • Few ticks above the high­est wick
    • TP
      • 49.103
        • Few ticks above DPP 49.077
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Added anoth­er opti­mistic sized lot @ 49.386 after a near doji can­dle on the 5M
      • PA moved high­er took the first lot off at a loss to min­i­mize risk @ 49.519
        • Loss 20.2 ticks
      • After so many bear­ish signs it still looks like it wants to go up higher
        • 2 min­utes till 4H bar close and let’s see how the mar­ket reacts
      • The mar­ket still looks like it might ral­ly some more. I’m ready to take my oth­er lot off if we break to new highs from here because I expect­ed a pull­back after the 4H close and that doesn’t seem to be on the horizon. 
      • The mar­ket feels awful ‘qui­et’
        • Not much move­ment. Qui­et before the storm?
      • Price just moved up high­er and I couldn’t take it any­more. This was such a teas­er. Show­ing me bear­ish signs to con­firm my short and every time I want­ed to cov­er it gave me anoth­er sign I should stay in. Les­son learned. Always keep your first SL rule and don’t adjust it afterwards.
      • Cov­ered @ 49.629
        • Loss 24.3 ticks

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • I was down on the first trade and when I took the sec­ond and third I was feel­ing like I was try­ing to make upn for that in the back of my mind so I cov­ered soon­er. I even looked at what the actu­al num­ber was that I was down so I knew when to break even. And I did break even. Only to then lose way more on trades I took afterwards. 
  • P/L for the day
    • Minus 50.5 ticks for the day. Mon­e­tary wise I lost 4.2% of my account. 

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Only take Swing Rever­sal trades
    • Over­all Progress
      • I feel like I am doing bet­ter in under­stand­ing my edge. I saw the move the mar­ket want­ed to wait but got in too ear­ly. I do feel like I am learn­ing to take loss­es bet­ter and am learn­ing the ‘feel’ for the mar­ket better.
    • What did I do well?
      • I wait­ed for more cri­te­ria to hit and come togeth­er before I got in. And even though some trades went against me they did fit my cri­te­ria and based on that I had to take them. Loss­es happen. 
    • What do I need to improve?
      • So even though I did well on tak­ing my set­up I need to be more obser­vant on what hap­pens on the 30M chart. More so then the 4H chart since that is way too far away com­pared to the 5M. I feel like I did that but since I was already in a trade I was biased towards hold­ing my posi­tion and because of this I lost more than I should have. Ide­al­ly (well not real­ly), I should have tak­en 10–15 tick loss­es on each trade before I hit the one that worked. Then I should have used my trail­ing stop to fol­low the move down as to catch most of the prof­its. “Ide­al­ly”. Live and learn my friend. Live and learn. 
    • Lessons learned
      • When PA on the 5M starts walk­ing away from the KC too much look for entry con­fir­ma­tion on the 30M chart. I said this yes­ter­day as well, but since this is the sec­ond time I notice this hap­pen­ing in the con­text that I am see­ing now I let myself off a lit­tle bit. I will take not of this in my trad­ing plan. If PA walks away look for con­fir­ma­tion on the 30M and then back to the 5M for entry. I will review today’s trad­ing tomor­row and see where I should have been plac­ing my shorts.
    • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
      • I give myself a 2. I did poor­ly on risk man­age­ment but I learned some valu­able lessons. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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