01092019 Trade Plan — Failed my Goal — Done For Today

09 Jan 01092019 Trade Plan — Failed my Goal — Done For Today

01092019 Trade Plan — Failed my Goal — Done For Today

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Sat	Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed
-	1/5	1/6	1/7	1/8	1/9
Beers night before	10	2	0	0	0
Time bed yesterday	05:00	01:30	11:00	22:07	22:40
woke up	-	-	-	6:22	6:20
Hours sleep	6	8	8.5	8:15	7:40
Awake	-	-	-	1:29	1:10
REM	-	-	-	1:09	1:34
Light	-	-	-	4:18	3:45
Deep	-	-	-	1:19	1:11
Sleep well?	1	2	2	3	2
Mela­tonin	0	0	1x	0	1x
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	1	1	2	1	1
Exer­cise yester(to)day	2	2	3	3	3
Grat­i­tude	5	5	5	5	5
Joy	5	5	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	1	1	1
Focus	1	2	2	2	3
Cof­fees today	1 espres­so. 1/2 coffee	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1 espres­so spread over 1.5 hours at 7:30am	1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop) in the morning
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	no	yes	yes	yes
Water L	2	2	2	3	3
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	-	-	-	4	0

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • I feel I am being more active and sleep­ing bet­ter. How­ev­er last night I slept a lit­tle late because my head was rac­ing still. Read a book for a while and then fell asleep.
• How do you feel?
  • I feel a lit­tle ‘edgy’ so best to be extra cau­tious. Per­haps I feel like this because of the Turk­ish cof­fee I had in the morn­ing. Let’s see if I have this tomor­row as well when drink­ing Turk­ish cof­fee with 1 scoop
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yesterday?
  • Yes­ter­day dur­ing the AS we start­ed the ses­sion test­ing DPP 49.077 as resis­tance but then quick­ly dropped to test the 48.50 lev­el as sup­port. As if to estab­lish the bound­aries of the range
  • Dur­ing LS we broke through DPP and start­ed an uptrend on the 5M stay­ing above the UKC find­ing some resis­tance at the 49.60 level
  • But after a pull­back we con­tin­ued the trend up to test the Dai­ly 49.80 and DR1 49.845 lev­els dur­ing NY until we final­ly broke it only to return back down quick­ly and the high­er time frame trend seems to be los­ing momen­tum but the uptrend has not been bro­ken yet

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Accord­ing to the API report there was a draw of ‑6.270 which would mean more bull­ish­ness into the mar­ket. But as always let the mar­ket show you it agrees.
• EIA report
  • The EIA report will come out today so let’s see what they have to say
• EURUSD
  • High 1.14846
  • Low 1.14221
  • Close 1.14404
• Addi­tion­al
  • US Chi­na trade talks ongoing

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

-	Thu	Fri	Week	Mon	Tue
-	1/3	1/4	12/31 — 1/4	1/7	1/8
High	47.647	49.395	49.395	49.977	50.139
Low	45.536	46.819	44.505	48.309	48.489
Close	46.979	48.483	48.483	48.945	50.001
Pip move	211.1	257.6	489	166.8	165
PP	46.721	48.232	47.461	49.077	49.543
dis­tance	118.5	141.3	295.6	76.8	105.4
R1	47.906	49.645	50.417	49.845	50.597
dis­tance	211.1	257.6	489	166.8	165
R2	48.832	50.808	52.351	50.745	51.193
dis­tance	-92.6	-116.3	-193.4	-90	-59.6
S1	45.795	47.069	45.527	48.177	48.947
dis­tance	-211.1	-257.6	-489	-166.8	-165
S2	44.61	45.656	42.571	47.409	47.893
TV	85,113	81,139	284,270	69,608	61
50MA	54.42	54.062	64.361	53.701	53.349
200MA	65.138	65.057	-	64.979	64.904
ATR	2.5136	2.5202	4.4173	2.4609	2.3781

• What can we tell from the PP levels?
  • DR1 has widened in dis­tance but DR2 has stayed the same
  • On the sup­port side we tight­ened on DS1 and stayed the same on DS2
    • What does this mean?
• Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
  • We crossed the 4H 200MA and Dai­ly 49.80 lev­el so the next high­er time frame resis­tance lev­el is 52.30
  • If we break back down we have the 47.50 week­ly lev­el after 49.80 dai­ly level
• What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
  • The 4H chart shows that we broke through the 200MA above the 49.80 dai­ly level
    • We did this dur­ing the AS
  • The 30M chart looks like we are overex­tend­ed and we might see a pullback
    • Let’s see if that pull­back is going to be all the way back down to dai­ly 49.80 to CAS
• How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
  • On the resis­tance side we can see that the Dai­ly 52.3 and WR2 52.351 are very close to each other

Cur­rent	50.8
Price
Dai­ly	Price	Dis­tance
50MA	53.349	255
200MA	64.904	1,410

S/R	kind	lev­el	Dis­tance
R6	Dai­ly	57.595	693.5
R5	Dai­ly	55.18	452
R4	Week­ly	53.9	324
R3	WR2	52.351	169.1
R2	Dai­ly	52.3	164
R1	DR2	51.193	53.3
CURRENT	-	50.66	-
S1	DS1	50.597	-6.3
S2	WR1	50.417	-24.3
S3	Dai­ly	49.8	-86
S4	DPP	49.543	-111.7
S5	DS1	48.947	-171.3
S6	DS2	47.893	-276.7

• What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
  • Since AS opened we have moved aup and broke through the 4H 200MA and Dai­ly 49.80 level
    • Although the trend seems to be los­ing momen­tum and poten­tial­ly rolling over but uptrend is still intact and we seems to be rang­ing between DR1 50.597 and 50.80 at the top of the range
      • Let’s see how the mar­ket will react to this range
• ATR
  • What is the ATR on the daily?
    • Is it increasing/decreasing?
    • 2.3781

Trade Plan

• I would like to see how the mar­ket will react to the 50.60 and 50.80 range and if we break down I’ll be look­ing for swing setups around 50.50, 50.40, and poten­tial­ly 49.80
• If we break out i’ll be look­ing for poten­tial swing setups at DR2 51.193 but more like­ly a big­ger swing set­up at Dai­ly 52.30
  • We have about 150 ticks to go to this Dai­ly lev­el which could give us enough space to overex­tend into it

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Only take swing rever­sal setups

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • I feel a lit­tle tired so take cau­tion in the mar­ket today
  • Dur­ing AS we pulled back to DS1 50.597 lev­el that might have sup­port with the 30M VWAP mean and UKC
  • The 30M VWAP is out of bounds of the UKC
    • Does that mean we are more like­ly to see a move down?
  • T1 loss
  • Cau­tion out of the window
    • I took a trade that is not one of my play­book setups so I’m done trad­ing for today
  • I think I need time away from my screens and just reset myself a bit. I’ll go for a walk and relax a bit. Come back strong tomorrow. 

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • 30 SR TC
    • 30M showed PA hit­ting VWAP mean and UKC plus WR1 50.417 as sup­port so thought this could hold as support
    • In con­junc­tion with a doji on the 5M I went long opti­mistic size. 
    • Entry
      • 50.526
  • SL
    • 50.382
  • TP
    • 50.813
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I cov­ered after I saw the next can­dle hit­ting below the pre­ced­ing can­dle but I see now that I should have let my stop take me out. It wouldn’t have tak­en me out since PA jumped high­er on the next candle
    • Cov­ered at 50.461
    • Loss 6.5 ticks

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Not PB set­up. Chas­ing the market.
    • Entry
      • 50.646
  • SL
  • TP
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Stopped out at 50.518
      • Loss 12.8 ticks

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
  • I messed up
    • First trade I didn’t let my SL take me out and it went in my favor after I took myself out
    • Sec­ond trade wasn’t a PB trade and it went against me (which is a good thing) and took out my SL
• P/L for the day
  • Down 19.3 ticks
  • Down 1.6%

Dai­ly Report Card

• Only take Swing Rever­sal plays
  • Over­all Progress
    • I failed today
  • What did I do well?
    • Take my stop
  • What do I need to improve?
    • Catch the warn­ing signs when I’m not feel­ing ‘good’ to stay away from tak­ing trades. 
  • Lessons learned
    • Good thing that I am now tak­ing a break from the screens since I broke my rule. Only play when you are at your best.
  • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
    • 1

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.