01102019 Trade Plan — 30M Trend Continuation

10 Jan 01102019 Trade Plan — 30M Trend Continuation

01102019 Trade Plan — 30M Trend Continuation

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = risk to reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu
-	1/6	1/7	1/8	1/9	1/10
Beers night before	2	0	0	0	4
Time bed yesterday	01:30	11:00	22:07	22:40	23:56
woke up	-	-	6:22	6:20	8:30
Hours sleep	8	8.5	8:15	7:40	8:34
Awake	-	-	1:29	1:10	1:13
REM	-	-	1:09	1:34	1:42
Light	-	-	4:18	3:45	4:24
Deep	-	-	1:19	1:11	1:25
Sleep well?	2	2	3	2	2
Mela­tonin	0	1x	0	1x	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	1	2	1	1	1
Exer­cise yester(to)day	2	3	3	3	4
Grat­i­tude	5	5	5	5	5
Joy	5	5	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	1	1	1
Focus	2	2	2	3	3
Cof­fees today	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1 espres­so spread over 1.5 hours at 7:30am	1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop) in the morning	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	yes	yes	no	yes
Water L	2	2	3	3	3
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	-	-	4	3	3

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • Over­all health is good. Get­ting better. 
• How do you feel?
  • I feel OK. Bet­ter than yes­ter­day. Don’t feel edgy but also don’t feel at my sharpest. Not too bad though. I slept not bad last night and slept enough. I did drink a few beers last night though so do feel a bit less sharp because of that.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yesterday?
  • Yes­ter­day dur­ing the AS we start­ed off in an uptrend and then rolling over to bounce off the DR1 50.60 lev­el but then we ducked under and we trad­ed between DR1 50.60 and sup­port at WR1 50.40 level
  • When Lon­don opened we bounced off twice off this WR1 lev­el and then con­tin­ued the uptrend
  • Lon­don trad­ed to DR2 51.20 lev­el and ranged between this and 50.90
  • After NY opened we even­tu­al­ly dropped hard to this 50.90 lev­el only to get pushed back hard and con­tin­ue the trend leg up in what looks like a cli­max move

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Draw ‑6.270M
• EIA report
  • Fore­cast ‑2.400M
  • Actu­al ‑1.680M
• EURUSD
  • High 1.15580
  • Low 1.14377
  • Close 1.15417
  • Looks like we might be break­ing the range to the upside which would mean the USD weak­en­ing against the Euro
• Addi­tion­al

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

-	Thu	Fri	Week	Mon	Tue	Wed
-	1/3	1/4	12/31 — 1/4	1/7	1/8	1/9
High	47.647	49.395	49.395	49.977	50.139	52.783
Low	45.536	46.819	44.505	48.309	48.489	49.953
Close	46.979	48.483	48.483	48.945	50.001	52.401
Pip move	211.1	257.6	489	166.8	165	283
PP	46.721	48.232	47.461	49.077	49.543	51.712
dis­tance	118.5	141.3	295.6	76.8	105.4	175.9
R1	47.906	49.645	50.417	49.845	50.597	53.471
dis­tance	211.1	257.6	489	166.8	165	283
R2	48.832	50.808	52.351	50.745	51.193	54.542
dis­tance	-92.6	-116.3	-193.4	-90	-59.6	-107.1
S1	45.795	47.069	45.527	48.177	48.947	50.641
dis­tance	-211.1	-257.6	-489	-166.8	-165	-283
S2	44.61	45.656	42.571	47.409	47.893	48.882
TV	85,113	81,139	284,270	69,608	61,229	63,539
50MA	54.42	54.062	64.361	53.701	53.349	53.062
200MA	65.138	65.057	-	64.979	64.904	64.852
ATR	2.5136	2.5202	4.4173	2.4609	2.3781	2.3102

• What can we tell from the PP levels?
  • PP lev­els expand­ed again so I would say today we could expect small­er swings
• ATR
  • What is the ATR on the daily?
    • Is it increasing/decreasing?
      • 2.3102
        • The ATR has been decreas­ing which could be tak­en as more agree­ment in the mar­ket since we are in an uptrend still
• Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
  • We have a Dai­ly resis­tance area around 52.30
  • And then a week­ly resis­tance area around 53.90
  • On the sup­port side we have the Dai­ly sup­port area around 49.80
  • And then the week­ly sup­port area around 47.50
• How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?

Cur­rent	52.1
Price
Dai­ly	Price	Dis­tance
50MA	53.349	125
200MA	64.904	1,280

S/R	kind	lev­el	Dis­tance
R6	Dai­ly	55.18	308
R5	DR2	54.542	244.2
R4	Week­ly	53.9	180
R3	Dr1	53.471	137.1
R2	WR2	52.351	25.1
R1	Dai­ly	52.3	20
CURRENT	-	52.1	-
S1	DPP	51.712	-38.8
S2	DS1	50.641	-145.9
S3	WR1	50.417	-168.3
S4	Dai­ly	49.8	-230
S5	DS2	48.882	-321.8
S6	Week­ly	47.5	-460

• What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
  • The week­ly is show­ing an inde­ci­sion can­dle out­side the VWAP bands just above the Dai­ly area of 52.30 after an extend­ed move that could be a cli­max move and thus we might run out of air to push high­er here
  • The 30M col­lab­o­rates this nar­ra­tive by show­ing PA duck­ing back into the KC and VWAP
    • How­ev­er this should not be tak­en as the end of the uptrend how­ev­er it could just be that the uptrend con­tin­ues in a more shal­low trend
• What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
  • The AS showed a bounce off the 5M 200MA and then rolling over into what looks like a pos­si­ble break of the 200MA
    • This would be in line of the high­er time frame los­ing of momen­tum in the uptrend we had yesterday

Trade Plan

• I think we could see the start of a range hap­pen­ing on the high­er time frame since we just had a big uptrend. I’ll be look­ing to trade off the 51.80 and 52.30 areas if that happens
• If we break DPP 51.712 we could see a poten­tial short term down­trend but that is also the 30M 50MA so let’s see
  • If this does hap­pen we could see an overex­tend­ed move into DS2 50.641 lev­el and a pos­si­ble swing here
• If we break out from 52.30 lev­el we could see anoth­er overex­tend­ed move into DR1 53.471 lev­el and a pos­si­ble swing here

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Only take swing rever­sal plays

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • I feel good, but was tired ear­li­er and not too sharp so be care­ful but always remem­ber to have fun
  • Lon­don just opened after AS final­ly end up break­ing the 5M 200MA
  • We are still inch­ing low­er and the 30M is show­ing small bars in a down­wards trend towards the 30M 50MA that is just above the DPP 51.712
    • accu­mu­la­tion?
  • T1 win 6.4 ticks on opti­mistic sizing
  • After I closed off the trade too soon, price is look­ing to con­tin­ue the move up. Since PA is not in the area that is opti­mal for me in terms of my R/R I will not re-enter.
    • Some sadis­tic (or is it masochis­tic) part of me wants this to go for a 100 tick run just to pun­ish myself for get­ting out too soon
  • Price is look­ing like it might con­tin­ue fur­ther and I’m not in it
    • PA moved to 5M 50MA and has start­ed mak­ing longer bod­ied candles
      • Part of accu­mu­la­tion or dis­tri­b­u­tion instead?
  • PA droped to DPP and got pushed back up but closed just out­side the LKC so wasn’t too sure to take a long posi­tion and hes­i­tat­ed. Then thought about tak­ing a con­ser­v­a­tive sized posi­tion but hes­i­tat­ed again and feel I have lost the best R/R point so will take note of this for future trades
  • We are look­ing to poten­tial­ly BD from 30M 50MA
  • I was wrong and we seem to have reject­ed the DPP 51.712 lev­el and are mak­ing a run for the 5M 200MA in what could be an overex­tend­ed move because Dai­ly 52.30 and WR2 52.351 are just above that level
  • Looks like we might be blast­ing through these lev­els and then we have the 30M UKC area so let’s see
  • This might be a high­er time frame BO in this case the 4H from the lev­el that we bounced off of and ini­ti­at­ed the pull­back yesterday
  • We are also get­ting very close to the Dai­ly 50MA so either we’re gonna get stopped hard in our tracks or we are going to have a huge move up.
  • Mar­ket has already moved 75 ticks so I won­der how much momen­tum does it have left to break through 30M UKC 4H swing high around 52.60 and the Dai­ly 50MA
  • It did not respect the Dai­ly 52.30 lev­el at all
    • Just a mere speedbump
  • PA moved away too much from KC on the 5M so I will look for clues on the 30M to give me a bet­ter under­stand­ing for the cur­rent con­di­tions then con­firm on the 5M for a pos­si­ble entry
  • I believe around this lev­el we could see a pos­si­ble overextension
  • Big bear­ish can­dle on the 5M but I’m not allowed to act on it since I need con­fir­ma­tion on the high­er time frames
  • In the next half hour it’s going to be clear if we will have the 4H BO or not
  • PA still look­ing very bull­ish on the 5M
    • Rea­sons for say­ing this
      • We had long moves up out­side of the 2.0 SD then even though a big bear­ish can­dle we pulled back to 5MA and then pushed for new highs indi­cates to me that this is poten­tial­ly not over yet and for a con­trar­i­an like me I should be very care­ful here
  • 5M is show­ing some weak­ness but still have a long way to go before I’m con­vinced to get on board here
  • PA pulled back to Dai­ly 52.30 and is show­ing weak­ness but let’s see if we can have a failed swing high on the 5M that will give a bear­ish sign on the 30M for me to con­sid­er hop­ping on
    • If I miss the move down I miss the move down. I have to stick to trad­ing my plan
  • I think I’m going to miss this move because I noticed some­thing. 5M is show­ing a down­trend and we made a cli­mac­tic move up (also shown by PA mov­ing away so fast from VWAP and 50MA, pay atten­tion to the angle)  indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble exhaus­tion into the high­er time frame tech­ni­cal lev­els and PA is show­ing poten­tial rapid rever­sal. I will take note of this for my playbook
  • PA reversed and dropped to 5M 200MA and VWAP mean around 52.15 level
  • Since the opti­mal R/R had passed I didn’t get on board
  • PA is test­ing Dai­ly 52.30 for a poten­tial CAR
    • This could poten­tial give me an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I would need a bear­ish can­dle above the UKC
  • On a per­son­al note
    • I sud­den­ly feel a bit tired won­der why that is and since con­cen­tra­tion is down a bit I should be more careful
  • PA hasn’t made any sig­nif­i­cant moves but has been trad­ing on the low­er time frame in a range. Don’t think I’ll get anoth­er oppor­tu­ni­ty before NY opens
  • PA moved back up slight­ly over the UKC and formed an inde­ci­sive can­dle which I could have trad­ed since it was also a failed swing high
    • SL would have been at about 5–10 ticks and TP at 15–20 ticks
    • Rea­son for not tak­ing this is because I was not focussed on the screen due to prepar­ing for a meet­ing tomorrow
  • NY is about to open so that is it for today

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • 30M 50MA SR TT
    • DPP
    • 5M showed uncon­vinc­ing bear­ish candle
    • Entry
      • 51.834
  • SL
    • Tigh SL just under pre­vi­ous can­dle wick
    • 51.765
  • TP
    • 52.10
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I feel OK even if the trade will go against me know­ing that to catch these rever­sals I am more prone to get­ting stopped out. If I can’t han­dle that I should stop trad­ing this par­tic­u­lar setup
    • I was in the mon­ey but I didn’t take it since I want­ed to let the trade work out. I am learn­ing to take my setups and fol­low my plan even though I think this trade will go against me. I had expect­ed a move to hap­pen soon­er so let’s wait and see
    • It could be that I got in too ear­ly so even if I get stopped out here I will look for a re-entry 
    • It could be that, since we are close to DPP that we might go stop-hunt­ing under­neath this lev­el before we go up (if we go up)
    • It reversed and I cov­ered at 5M VWAP mean
      • I’d like to say that it was because I didn’t think it would break it but that’s not true. I want­ed to pock­et something
      • Cov­er at 51.898
        • Win 6.4 ticks

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
  • I pock­et­ed prof­its too soon and didn’t let the trade play out. I treat­ed it as a SR Fade play (thus as a M2M) where­as now I’ve learned that at a high­er time frame sup­port area in an uptrend I could have treat­ed as a T2H
• P/L for the day
  • I noticed I had tak­en a trade ear­li­er in the AS and that got stopped out at opti­mistic sizing
  • Loss 13.2 ticks
  • T1 dur­ing London
    • Win 6.4 ticks
  • Down for the day 6.8 ticks or 0.55%

Dai­ly Report Card

• Only take Swing Rever­sal setups
  • Over­all Progress
    • Since I have found this par­tic­u­lar set­up a month and half ago I feel that I should cut myself some slack for not being able to trade it as well yet. How­ev­er, how will I be look­ing to improve? That is the main point. 
  • What did I do well?
    • I was focussed on under­stand­ing mar­ket struc­ture more than I was try­ing to take a trade
    • When I did take a trade I set my SL and didn’t move it think­ing I could re-enter if the mar­ket struc­ture still gave me the same signals
  • What do I need to improve?
    • Under­stand­ing my set­up better
      • I will do this by con­tin­u­ing to review my trades and play­book setups
      • Also I will focus on back­test­ing more on the week­ends. Cur­rent­ly I do this every oth­er week­end, but this should be a pri­or­i­ty to do every weekend
  • Lessons learned
    • When we near a 30M (or oth­er high­er time frame) tech­ni­cal lev­el we might have sev­er­al tests before revers­ing at these areas
    • Recon­firm the believe that back­test­ing is a cru­cial key in my devel­op­ment as a trad­er. Not just review my trades and play­book setups.
  • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
    • 2
      • I give myself a 2 since even though I was more focused on under­stand­ing mar­ket struc­ture and mak­ing edu­cat­ed deci­sions in the mar­ket I neglect­ed to cap­i­tal­ize on 2 oth­er oppor­tu­ni­ties. I wouldn’t give myself a 3 since I didn’t let the trade that I took play out.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.