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01102019 Trade Plan — 30M Trend Continuation

Daily Report Card

01102019 Trade Plan — 30M Trend Continuation

01102019 Trade Plan — 30M Trend Continuation

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = risk to reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeSunMonTueWedThu
-1/61/71/81/91/10
Beers night before20004
Time bed yesterday01:3011:0022:0722:4023:56
woke up--6:226:208:30
Hours sleep88.58:157:408:34
Awake--1:291:101:13
REM--1:091:341:42
Light--4:183:454:24
Deep--1:191:111:25
Sleep well?22322
Mela­tonin01x01x0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?12111
Exer­cise yester(to)day23334
Grat­i­tude55555
Joy55555
Anger11111
Fear11111
Focus22233
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 1.5 hours at 7:30am1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop) in the morning1 espres­so spread over 2 hours
Inter­mit­tent fastingnoyesyesnoyes
Water L22333
Vit­a­minsyesyesyesyesyes
Cig­a­rettes--433

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • Over­all health is good. Get­ting better. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel OK. Bet­ter than yes­ter­day. Don’t feel edgy but also don’t feel at my sharpest. Not too bad though. I slept not bad last night and slept enough. I did drink a few beers last night though so do feel a bit less sharp because of that.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • Yes­ter­day dur­ing the AS we start­ed off in an uptrend and then rolling over to bounce off the DR1 50.60 lev­el but then we ducked under and we trad­ed between DR1 50.60 and sup­port at WR1 50.40 level
    • When Lon­don opened we bounced off twice off this WR1 lev­el and then con­tin­ued the uptrend
    • Lon­don trad­ed to DR2 51.20 lev­el and ranged between this and 50.90
    • After NY opened we even­tu­al­ly dropped hard to this 50.90 lev­el only to get pushed back hard and con­tin­ue the trend leg up in what looks like a cli­max move

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Draw ‑6.270M
  • EIA report
    • Fore­cast ‑2.400M
    • Actu­al ‑1.680M
  • EURUSD
    • High 1.15580
    • Low 1.14377
    • Close 1.15417
    • Looks like we might be break­ing the range to the upside which would mean the USD weak­en­ing against the Euro
  • Addi­tion­al

    Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

    -ThuFriWeekMonTueWed
    -1/31/412/31 — 1/41/71/81/9
    High47.64749.39549.39549.97750.13952.783
    Low45.53646.81944.50548.30948.48949.953
    Close46.97948.48348.48348.94550.00152.401
    Pip move211.1257.6489166.8165283
    PP46.72148.23247.46149.07749.54351.712
    dis­tance118.5141.3295.676.8105.4175.9
    R147.90649.64550.41749.84550.59753.471
    dis­tance211.1257.6489166.8165283
    R248.83250.80852.35150.74551.19354.542
    dis­tance-92.6-116.3-193.4-90-59.6-107.1
    S145.79547.06945.52748.17748.94750.641
    dis­tance-211.1-257.6-489-166.8-165-283
    S244.6145.65642.57147.40947.89348.882
    TV85,11381,139284,27069,60861,22963,539
    50MA54.4254.06264.36153.70153.34953.062
    200MA65.13865.057-64.97964.90464.852
    ATR2.51362.52024.41732.46092.37812.3102
    • What can we tell from the PP levels?
      • PP lev­els expand­ed again so I would say today we could expect small­er swings
    • ATR
      • What is the ATR on the daily?
        • Is it increasing/decreasing?
          • 2.3102
            • The ATR has been decreas­ing which could be tak­en as more agree­ment in the mar­ket since we are in an uptrend still
    • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
      • We have a Dai­ly resis­tance area around 52.30
      • And then a week­ly resis­tance area around 53.90
      • On the sup­port side we have the Dai­ly sup­port area around 49.80
      • And then the week­ly sup­port area around 47.50
    • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
    Cur­rent52.1
    Price
    Dai­lyPriceDis­tance
    50MA53.349125
    200MA64.9041,280

    S/Rkindlev­elDis­tance
    R6Dai­ly55.18308
    R5DR254.542244.2
    R4Week­ly53.9180
    R3Dr153.471137.1
    R2WR252.35125.1
    R1Dai­ly52.320
    CURRENT-52.1-
    S1DPP51.712-38.8
    S2DS150.641-145.9
    S3WR150.417-168.3
    S4Dai­ly49.8-230
    S5DS248.882-321.8
    S6Week­ly47.5-460
    • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
      • The week­ly is show­ing an inde­ci­sion can­dle out­side the VWAP bands just above the Dai­ly area of 52.30 after an extend­ed move that could be a cli­max move and thus we might run out of air to push high­er here
      • The 30M col­lab­o­rates this nar­ra­tive by show­ing PA duck­ing back into the KC and VWAP
        • How­ev­er this should not be tak­en as the end of the uptrend how­ev­er it could just be that the uptrend con­tin­ues in a more shal­low trend
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • The AS showed a bounce off the 5M 200MA and then rolling over into what looks like a pos­si­ble break of the 200MA
        • This would be in line of the high­er time frame los­ing of momen­tum in the uptrend we had yesterday

    Trade Plan

    • I think we could see the start of a range hap­pen­ing on the high­er time frame since we just had a big uptrend. I’ll be look­ing to trade off the 51.80 and 52.30 areas if that happens
    • If we break DPP 51.712 we could see a poten­tial short term down­trend but that is also the 30M 50MA so let’s see
      • If this does hap­pen we could see an overex­tend­ed move into DS2 50.641 lev­el and a pos­si­ble swing here
    • If we break out from 52.30 lev­el we could see anoth­er overex­tend­ed move into DR1 53.471 lev­el and a pos­si­ble swing here

    My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

    • Only take swing rever­sal plays

    Read­ing the Tape

    • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
      • I feel good, but was tired ear­li­er and not too sharp so be care­ful but always remem­ber to have fun
      • Lon­don just opened after AS final­ly end up break­ing the 5M 200MA
      • We are still inch­ing low­er and the 30M is show­ing small bars in a down­wards trend towards the 30M 50MA that is just above the DPP 51.712
        • accu­mu­la­tion?
      • T1 win 6.4 ticks on opti­mistic sizing
      • After I closed off the trade too soon, price is look­ing to con­tin­ue the move up. Since PA is not in the area that is opti­mal for me in terms of my R/R I will not re-enter.
        • Some sadis­tic (or is it masochis­tic) part of me wants this to go for a 100 tick run just to pun­ish myself for get­ting out too soon
      • Price is look­ing like it might con­tin­ue fur­ther and I’m not in it
        • PA moved to 5M 50MA and has start­ed mak­ing longer bod­ied candles
          • Part of accu­mu­la­tion or dis­tri­b­u­tion instead?
      • PA droped to DPP and got pushed back up but closed just out­side the LKC so wasn’t too sure to take a long posi­tion and hes­i­tat­ed. Then thought about tak­ing a con­ser­v­a­tive sized posi­tion but hes­i­tat­ed again and feel I have lost the best R/R point so will take note of this for future trades
      • We are look­ing to poten­tial­ly BD from 30M 50MA
      • I was wrong and we seem to have reject­ed the DPP 51.712 lev­el and are mak­ing a run for the 5M 200MA in what could be an overex­tend­ed move because Dai­ly 52.30 and WR2 52.351 are just above that level
      • Looks like we might be blast­ing through these lev­els and then we have the 30M UKC area so let’s see
      • This might be a high­er time frame BO in this case the 4H from the lev­el that we bounced off of and ini­ti­at­ed the pull­back yesterday
      • We are also get­ting very close to the Dai­ly 50MA so either we’re gonna get stopped hard in our tracks or we are going to have a huge move up.
      • Mar­ket has already moved 75 ticks so I won­der how much momen­tum does it have left to break through 30M UKC 4H swing high around 52.60 and the Dai­ly 50MA
      • It did not respect the Dai­ly 52.30 lev­el at all
        • Just a mere speedbump
      • PA moved away too much from KC on the 5M so I will look for clues on the 30M to give me a bet­ter under­stand­ing for the cur­rent con­di­tions then con­firm on the 5M for a pos­si­ble entry
      • I believe around this lev­el we could see a pos­si­ble overextension
      • Big bear­ish can­dle on the 5M but I’m not allowed to act on it since I need con­fir­ma­tion on the high­er time frames
      • In the next half hour it’s going to be clear if we will have the 4H BO or not
      • PA still look­ing very bull­ish on the 5M
        • Rea­sons for say­ing this
          • We had long moves up out­side of the 2.0 SD then even though a big bear­ish can­dle we pulled back to 5MA and then pushed for new highs indi­cates to me that this is poten­tial­ly not over yet and for a con­trar­i­an like me I should be very care­ful here
      • 5M is show­ing some weak­ness but still have a long way to go before I’m con­vinced to get on board here
      • PA pulled back to Dai­ly 52.30 and is show­ing weak­ness but let’s see if we can have a failed swing high on the 5M that will give a bear­ish sign on the 30M for me to con­sid­er hop­ping on
        • If I miss the move down I miss the move down. I have to stick to trad­ing my plan
      • I think I’m going to miss this move because I noticed some­thing. 5M is show­ing a down­trend and we made a cli­mac­tic move up (also shown by PA mov­ing away so fast from VWAP and 50MA, pay atten­tion to the angle)  indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble exhaus­tion into the high­er time frame tech­ni­cal lev­els and PA is show­ing poten­tial rapid rever­sal. I will take note of this for my playbook
      • PA reversed and dropped to 5M 200MA and VWAP mean around 52.15 level
      • Since the opti­mal R/R had passed I didn’t get on board
      • PA is test­ing Dai­ly 52.30 for a poten­tial CAR
        • This could poten­tial give me an oppor­tu­ni­ty but I would need a bear­ish can­dle above the UKC
      • On a per­son­al note
        • I sud­den­ly feel a bit tired won­der why that is and since con­cen­tra­tion is down a bit I should be more careful
      • PA hasn’t made any sig­nif­i­cant moves but has been trad­ing on the low­er time frame in a range. Don’t think I’ll get anoth­er oppor­tu­ni­ty before NY opens
      • PA moved back up slight­ly over the UKC and formed an inde­ci­sive can­dle which I could have trad­ed since it was also a failed swing high
        • SL would have been at about 5–10 ticks and TP at 15–20 ticks
        • Rea­son for not tak­ing this is because I was not focussed on the screen due to prepar­ing for a meet­ing tomorrow
      • NY is about to open so that is it for today

    Trade Man­age­ment

    Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

    • T1
      • Why? What do I see?
        • 30M 50MA SR TT
        • DPP
        • 5M showed uncon­vinc­ing bear­ish candle
        • Entry
          • 51.834
      • SL
        • Tigh SL just under pre­vi­ous can­dle wick
        • 51.765
      • TP
        • 52.10
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • I feel OK even if the trade will go against me know­ing that to catch these rever­sals I am more prone to get­ting stopped out. If I can’t han­dle that I should stop trad­ing this par­tic­u­lar setup
        • I was in the mon­ey but I didn’t take it since I want­ed to let the trade work out. I am learn­ing to take my setups and fol­low my plan even though I think this trade will go against me. I had expect­ed a move to hap­pen soon­er so let’s wait and see
        • It could be that I got in too ear­ly so even if I get stopped out here I will look for a re-entry 
        • It could be that, since we are close to DPP that we might go stop-hunt­ing under­neath this lev­el before we go up (if we go up)
        • It reversed and I cov­ered at 5M VWAP mean
          • I’d like to say that it was because I didn’t think it would break it but that’s not true. I want­ed to pock­et something
          • Cov­er at 51.898
            • Win 6.4 ticks

    Trade Review

    • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
      • I pock­et­ed prof­its too soon and didn’t let the trade play out. I treat­ed it as a SR Fade play (thus as a M2M) where­as now I’ve learned that at a high­er time frame sup­port area in an uptrend I could have treat­ed as a T2H
    • P/L for the day
      • I noticed I had tak­en a trade ear­li­er in the AS and that got stopped out at opti­mistic sizing
      • Loss 13.2 ticks
      • T1 dur­ing London
        • Win 6.4 ticks
      • Down for the day 6.8 ticks or 0.55%

    Dai­ly Report Card

    • Only take Swing Rever­sal setups
      • Over­all Progress
        • Since I have found this par­tic­u­lar set­up a month and half ago I feel that I should cut myself some slack for not being able to trade it as well yet. How­ev­er, how will I be look­ing to improve? That is the main point. 
      • What did I do well?
        • I was focussed on under­stand­ing mar­ket struc­ture more than I was try­ing to take a trade
        • When I did take a trade I set my SL and didn’t move it think­ing I could re-enter if the mar­ket struc­ture still gave me the same signals
      • What do I need to improve?
        • Under­stand­ing my set­up better
          • I will do this by con­tin­u­ing to review my trades and play­book setups
          • Also I will focus on back­test­ing more on the week­ends. Cur­rent­ly I do this every oth­er week­end, but this should be a pri­or­i­ty to do every weekend
      • Lessons learned
        • When we near a 30M (or oth­er high­er time frame) tech­ni­cal lev­el we might have sev­er­al tests before revers­ing at these areas
        • Recon­firm the believe that back­test­ing is a cru­cial key in my devel­op­ment as a trad­er. Not just review my trades and play­book setups.
      • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
        • 2
          • I give myself a 2 since even though I was more focused on under­stand­ing mar­ket struc­ture and mak­ing edu­cat­ed deci­sions in the mar­ket I neglect­ed to cap­i­tal­ize on 2 oth­er oppor­tu­ni­ties. I wouldn’t give myself a 3 since I didn’t let the trade that I took play out.

    Feed­back?

    Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

    T3chAddict
    t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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