
10 Jan 01102019 Trade Plan — 30M Trend Continuation
01102019 Trade Plan — 30M Trend Continuation
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = risk to reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu |
- | 1/6 | 1/7 | 1/8 | 1/9 | 1/10 |
Beers night before | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Time bed yesterday | 01:30 | 11:00 | 22:07 | 22:40 | 23:56 |
woke up | - | - | 6:22 | 6:20 | 8:30 |
Hours sleep | 8 | 8.5 | 8:15 | 7:40 | 8:34 |
Awake | - | - | 1:29 | 1:10 | 1:13 |
REM | - | - | 1:09 | 1:34 | 1:42 |
Light | - | - | 4:18 | 3:45 | 4:24 |
Deep | - | - | 1:19 | 1:11 | 1:25 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 1x | 0 | 1x | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 1.5 hours at 7:30am | 1 turkish coffee (1 scoop) in the morning | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours |
Intermittent fasting | no | yes | yes | no | yes |
Water L | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | - | - | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- Overall health is good. Getting better.
- How do you feel?
- I feel OK. Better than yesterday. Don’t feel edgy but also don’t feel at my sharpest. Not too bad though. I slept not bad last night and slept enough. I did drink a few beers last night though so do feel a bit less sharp because of that.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- Yesterday during the AS we started off in an uptrend and then rolling over to bounce off the DR1 50.60 level but then we ducked under and we traded between DR1 50.60 and support at WR1 50.40 level
- When London opened we bounced off twice off this WR1 level and then continued the uptrend
- London traded to DR2 51.20 level and ranged between this and 50.90
- After NY opened we eventually dropped hard to this 50.90 level only to get pushed back hard and continue the trend leg up in what looks like a climax move
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Draw ‑6.270M
- EIA report
- Forecast ‑2.400M
- Actual ‑1.680M
- EURUSD
- High 1.15580
- Low 1.14377
- Close 1.15417
- Looks like we might be breaking the range to the upside which would mean the USD weakening against the Euro
- Additional
Intraday Technical Analysis
- | Thu | Fri | Week | Mon | Tue | Wed |
- | 1/3 | 1/4 | 12/31 — 1/4 | 1/7 | 1/8 | 1/9 |
High | 47.647 | 49.395 | 49.395 | 49.977 | 50.139 | 52.783 |
Low | 45.536 | 46.819 | 44.505 | 48.309 | 48.489 | 49.953 |
Close | 46.979 | 48.483 | 48.483 | 48.945 | 50.001 | 52.401 |
Pip move | 211.1 | 257.6 | 489 | 166.8 | 165 | 283 |
PP | 46.721 | 48.232 | 47.461 | 49.077 | 49.543 | 51.712 |
distance | 118.5 | 141.3 | 295.6 | 76.8 | 105.4 | 175.9 |
R1 | 47.906 | 49.645 | 50.417 | 49.845 | 50.597 | 53.471 |
distance | 211.1 | 257.6 | 489 | 166.8 | 165 | 283 |
R2 | 48.832 | 50.808 | 52.351 | 50.745 | 51.193 | 54.542 |
distance | -92.6 | -116.3 | -193.4 | -90 | -59.6 | -107.1 |
S1 | 45.795 | 47.069 | 45.527 | 48.177 | 48.947 | 50.641 |
distance | -211.1 | -257.6 | -489 | -166.8 | -165 | -283 |
S2 | 44.61 | 45.656 | 42.571 | 47.409 | 47.893 | 48.882 |
TV | 85,113 | 81,139 | 284,270 | 69,608 | 61,229 | 63,539 |
50MA | 54.42 | 54.062 | 64.361 | 53.701 | 53.349 | 53.062 |
200MA | 65.138 | 65.057 | - | 64.979 | 64.904 | 64.852 |
ATR | 2.5136 | 2.5202 | 4.4173 | 2.4609 | 2.3781 | 2.3102 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- PP levels expanded again so I would say today we could expect smaller swings
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- 2.3102
- The ATR has been decreasing which could be taken as more agreement in the market since we are in an uptrend still
- 2.3102
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- We have a Daily resistance area around 52.30
- And then a weekly resistance area around 53.90
- On the support side we have the Daily support area around 49.80
- And then the weekly support area around 47.50
- How far away are we from technical levels?
Current | 52.1 | |
Price | ||
Daily | Price | Distance |
50MA | 53.349 | 125 |
200MA | 64.904 | 1,280 |
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | Daily | 55.18 | 308 |
R5 | DR2 | 54.542 | 244.2 |
R4 | Weekly | 53.9 | 180 |
R3 | Dr1 | 53.471 | 137.1 |
R2 | WR2 | 52.351 | 25.1 |
R1 | Daily | 52.3 | 20 |
CURRENT | - | 52.1 | - |
S1 | DPP | 51.712 | -38.8 |
S2 | DS1 | 50.641 | -145.9 |
S3 | WR1 | 50.417 | -168.3 |
S4 | Daily | 49.8 | -230 |
S5 | DS2 | 48.882 | -321.8 |
S6 | Weekly | 47.5 | -460 |
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- The weekly is showing an indecision candle outside the VWAP bands just above the Daily area of 52.30 after an extended move that could be a climax move and thus we might run out of air to push higher here
- The 30M collaborates this narrative by showing PA ducking back into the KC and VWAP
- However this should not be taken as the end of the uptrend however it could just be that the uptrend continues in a more shallow trend
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- The AS showed a bounce off the 5M 200MA and then rolling over into what looks like a possible break of the 200MA
- This would be in line of the higher time frame losing of momentum in the uptrend we had yesterday
- The AS showed a bounce off the 5M 200MA and then rolling over into what looks like a possible break of the 200MA
Trade Plan
- I think we could see the start of a range happening on the higher time frame since we just had a big uptrend. I’ll be looking to trade off the 51.80 and 52.30 areas if that happens
- If we break DPP 51.712 we could see a potential short term downtrend but that is also the 30M 50MA so let’s see
- If this does happen we could see an overextended move into DS2 50.641 level and a possible swing here
- If we break out from 52.30 level we could see another overextended move into DR1 53.471 level and a possible swing here
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take swing reversal plays
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- I feel good, but was tired earlier and not too sharp so be careful but always remember to have fun
- London just opened after AS finally end up breaking the 5M 200MA
- We are still inching lower and the 30M is showing small bars in a downwards trend towards the 30M 50MA that is just above the DPP 51.712
- accumulation?
- T1 win 6.4 ticks on optimistic sizing
- After I closed off the trade too soon, price is looking to continue the move up. Since PA is not in the area that is optimal for me in terms of my R/R I will not re-enter.
- Some sadistic (or is it masochistic) part of me wants this to go for a 100 tick run just to punish myself for getting out too soon
- Price is looking like it might continue further and I’m not in it
- PA moved to 5M 50MA and has started making longer bodied candles
- Part of accumulation or distribution instead?
- PA moved to 5M 50MA and has started making longer bodied candles
- PA droped to DPP and got pushed back up but closed just outside the LKC so wasn’t too sure to take a long position and hesitated. Then thought about taking a conservative sized position but hesitated again and feel I have lost the best R/R point so will take note of this for future trades
- We are looking to potentially BD from 30M 50MA
- I was wrong and we seem to have rejected the DPP 51.712 level and are making a run for the 5M 200MA in what could be an overextended move because Daily 52.30 and WR2 52.351 are just above that level
- Looks like we might be blasting through these levels and then we have the 30M UKC area so let’s see
- This might be a higher time frame BO in this case the 4H from the level that we bounced off of and initiated the pullback yesterday
- We are also getting very close to the Daily 50MA so either we’re gonna get stopped hard in our tracks or we are going to have a huge move up.
- Market has already moved 75 ticks so I wonder how much momentum does it have left to break through 30M UKC 4H swing high around 52.60 and the Daily 50MA
- It did not respect the Daily 52.30 level at all
- Just a mere speedbump
- PA moved away too much from KC on the 5M so I will look for clues on the 30M to give me a better understanding for the current conditions then confirm on the 5M for a possible entry
- I believe around this level we could see a possible overextension
- Big bearish candle on the 5M but I’m not allowed to act on it since I need confirmation on the higher time frames
- In the next half hour it’s going to be clear if we will have the 4H BO or not
- PA still looking very bullish on the 5M
- Reasons for saying this
- We had long moves up outside of the 2.0 SD then even though a big bearish candle we pulled back to 5MA and then pushed for new highs indicates to me that this is potentially not over yet and for a contrarian like me I should be very careful here
- Reasons for saying this
- 5M is showing some weakness but still have a long way to go before I’m convinced to get on board here
- PA pulled back to Daily 52.30 and is showing weakness but let’s see if we can have a failed swing high on the 5M that will give a bearish sign on the 30M for me to consider hopping on
- If I miss the move down I miss the move down. I have to stick to trading my plan
- I think I’m going to miss this move because I noticed something. 5M is showing a downtrend and we made a climactic move up (also shown by PA moving away so fast from VWAP and 50MA, pay attention to the angle) indicating possible exhaustion into the higher time frame technical levels and PA is showing potential rapid reversal. I will take note of this for my playbook
- PA reversed and dropped to 5M 200MA and VWAP mean around 52.15 level
- Since the optimal R/R had passed I didn’t get on board
- PA is testing Daily 52.30 for a potential CAR
- This could potential give me an opportunity but I would need a bearish candle above the UKC
- On a personal note
- I suddenly feel a bit tired wonder why that is and since concentration is down a bit I should be more careful
- PA hasn’t made any significant moves but has been trading on the lower time frame in a range. Don’t think I’ll get another opportunity before NY opens
- PA moved back up slightly over the UKC and formed an indecisive candle which I could have traded since it was also a failed swing high
- SL would have been at about 5–10 ticks and TP at 15–20 ticks
- Reason for not taking this is because I was not focussed on the screen due to preparing for a meeting tomorrow
- NY is about to open so that is it for today
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- 30M 50MA SR TT
- DPP
- 5M showed unconvincing bearish candle
- Entry
- 51.834
- SL
- Tigh SL just under previous candle wick
- 51.765
- TP
- 52.10
- Trade Management
- I feel OK even if the trade will go against me knowing that to catch these reversals I am more prone to getting stopped out. If I can’t handle that I should stop trading this particular setup
- I was in the money but I didn’t take it since I wanted to let the trade work out. I am learning to take my setups and follow my plan even though I think this trade will go against me. I had expected a move to happen sooner so let’s wait and see
- It could be that I got in too early so even if I get stopped out here I will look for a re-entry
- It could be that, since we are close to DPP that we might go stop-hunting underneath this level before we go up (if we go up)
- It reversed and I covered at 5M VWAP mean
- I’d like to say that it was because I didn’t think it would break it but that’s not true. I wanted to pocket something
- Cover at 51.898
- Win 6.4 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I pocketed profits too soon and didn’t let the trade play out. I treated it as a SR Fade play (thus as a M2M) whereas now I’ve learned that at a higher time frame support area in an uptrend I could have treated as a T2H
- P/L for the day
- I noticed I had taken a trade earlier in the AS and that got stopped out at optimistic sizing
- Loss 13.2 ticks
- T1 during London
- Win 6.4 ticks
- Down for the day 6.8 ticks or 0.55%
Daily Report Card
- Only take Swing Reversal setups
- Overall Progress
- Since I have found this particular setup a month and half ago I feel that I should cut myself some slack for not being able to trade it as well yet. However, how will I be looking to improve? That is the main point.
- What did I do well?
- I was focussed on understanding market structure more than I was trying to take a trade
- When I did take a trade I set my SL and didn’t move it thinking I could re-enter if the market structure still gave me the same signals
- What do I need to improve?
- Understanding my setup better
- I will do this by continuing to review my trades and playbook setups
- Also I will focus on backtesting more on the weekends. Currently I do this every other weekend, but this should be a priority to do every weekend
- Understanding my setup better
- Lessons learned
- When we near a 30M (or other higher time frame) technical level we might have several tests before reversing at these areas
- Reconfirm the believe that backtesting is a crucial key in my development as a trader. Not just review my trades and playbook setups.
- Grade yourself 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
- 2
- I give myself a 2 since even though I was more focused on understanding market structure and making educated decisions in the market I neglected to capitalize on 2 other opportunities. I wouldn’t give myself a 3 since I didn’t let the trade that I took play out.
- 2
- Overall Progress
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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