0112019 Trade Plan — Possible BO of Daily 50MA

11 Jan 0112019 Trade Plan — Possible BO of Daily 50MA

0112019 Trade Plan — Pos­si­ble BO of Dai­ly 50MA

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri
-	1/7	1/8	1/9	1/10	1/11
Beers night before	0	0	0	4	0
Time bed yesterday	11:00	22:07	22:40	23:56	22:19
woke up	-	6:22	6:20	8:30	6:36
Hours sleep	8.5	8:15	7:40	8:34	8:17
Awake	-	1:29	1:10	1:13	1:46
REM	-	1:09	1:34	1:42	0:20
Light	-	4:18	3:45	4:24	5:17
Deep	-	1:19	1:11	1:25	0:54
Sleep well?	2	3	2	2	2
Mela­tonin	1x	0	1x	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	2	1	1	1	0
Exer­cise yester(to)day	3	3	3	4	3
Grat­i­tude	5	5	5	5	5
Joy	5	5	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	1	1	1
Focus	2	2	3	3	3
Cof­fees today	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1 espres­so spread over 1.5 hours at 7:30am	1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop) in the morning	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop) in the morning
Inter­mit­tent fasting	yes	yes	no	yes	no
Water L	2	3	3	3	3
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	-	4	3	3	10

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • I sleep enough hours but the qual­i­ty isn’t good. I can also see that my REM sleep went down to 20 min­utes even though I slept more than 8 hours. I will do some research on why this could be. If I’d have to give an answer I’m think­ing in the cor­ner of stress in my per­son­al life that could be the cul­prit. How­ev­er, I don’t feel too much stress there are things I wor­ry about as we all do. Per­haps they both­er me more than I let on (to myself). I will do some jour­nal­ing on this and see if that helps. Also learn more about REM sleep.
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good how­ev­er, I feel a bit jacked up as if I had too much caf­feine which I prob­a­bly did. I had a Turk­ish cof­fee in the morn­ing with one scoop of cof­fee so I will low­er that to only half a scoop and see how that goes. I feel just a lit­tle too jacked up too and could be a lit­tle less. So let’s see what half a scoop does and take it from there.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yesterday?
  • Dur­ing the AS we start­ed inch­ing low­er and then bounced off the 51.80 area and then had small PA swings inch­ing back to this area which could be indica­tive of accumulation/distribution (the smart guys are more like­ly get­ting in or out of posi­tions here)
  • Then after Lon­don opened we had a swing rever­sal oppor­tu­ni­ty at the same area and made a first longer swing into the 50MA to drop down and test 30M 50MA again before hav­ing a cli­mac­tic move up to UKC and rolling over after it had hit resis­tance from the UKC, 4H tech lev­el, Dai­ly 50MA
  • We then con­se­quent­ly made a failed swing high indi­cat­ing more down­side and we then did trade low­er back to that 51.80 area below the 30M MA before we got pushed back up again test­ing the 52.50 area again with a high of around 52.90
    • Test­ing the Dai­ly 50MA
    • But we seem to have reject­ed this area for now and trad­ed low­er for the remain­der of the NY session

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • -6.270M
• EIA report
  • -1.680M fore­cast ‑2.400M
• EURUSD
  • High 1.15698
  • Low 1.14846
  • Close 1.14997
  • Still above pre­vi­ous range and 50MA inch­ing high­er towards the 200MA
• Addi­tion­al

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

-	Fri	Week	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu
-	1/4	12/31 — 1/4	1/7	1/8	1/9	1/10
High	49.395	49.395	49.977	50.139	52.783	53.014
Low	46.819	44.505	48.309	48.489	49.953	51.643
Close	48.483	48.483	48.945	50.001	52.401	52.641
Pip move	257.6	489	166.8	165	283	137.1
PP	48.232	47.461	49.077	49.543	51.712	52.433
dis­tance	141.3	295.6	76.8	105.4	175.9	79
R1	49.645	50.417	49.845	50.597	53.471	53.223
dis­tance	257.6	489	166.8	165	283	137.1
R2	50.808	52.351	50.745	51.193	54.542	53.804
dis­tance	-116.3	-193.4	-90	-59.6	-107.1	-58.1
S1	47.069	45.527	48.177	48.947	50.641	51.852
dis­tance	-257.6	-489	-166.8	-165	-283	-137.1
S2	45.656	42.571	47.409	47.893	48.882	51.062
TV	81,139	284,270	69,608	61,229	63,539	66,078
50MA	54.062	64.361	53.701	53.349	53.062	52.786
200MA	65.057	-	64.979	64.904	64.852	64.797
ATR	2.5202	4.4173	2.4609	2.3781	2.3102	2.2566

• What can we tell from the PP levels?
  • The dis­tances have shrunk again so we can pos­si­bly expect a big­ger move happening
• ATR
  • 2.2566
  • ATR has decreased and could be an indi­ca­tion of more agree­ment in the market
• Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
  • We have the Dai­ly 52.30 as support
  • I’d say since we bounced off the 51.80 area yes­ter­day a few times that this is a tech­ni­cal lev­el as well
  • Then on the resis­tance side we have the 52.50 and 52.90 areas to consider
  • We are also very near the Dai­ly 50MA
• How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?

Cur­rent	52.7
Price
Dai­ly	Price	Dis­tance
50MA	52.786	9
200MA	64.797	1,210

S/R	kind	lev­el	Dis­tance
R6	Dai­ly	64	1130
R5	Dai­ly	57.6	490
R4	Dai­ly	55.2	250
R3	Week­ly	53.9	120
R2	DR2	53.804	110.4
R1	DR1	53.223	52.3
CURRENT	-	52.7	-
S1	DPP	52.433	-26.7
S2	WR2	52.351	-34.9
S3	Dai­ly	52.3	-40
S4	DS1	51.852	-84.8
S5	DS2	51.062	-163.8
S6	WR1	50.417	-228.3

• What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
  • We crossed the Dai­ly area of 52.30 and could be that we made a dou­ble top on the 4H because we have a bear­ish can­dle at the 2nd test­ing of this area which is also the Dai­ly 50MA and the Dai­ly also shows an inde­ci­sive can­dle yesterday
  • The 4H is show­ing some loss in momen­tum there the 1.0 SD isn’t hold­ing up as sup­port as clearly
  • On the 30M chart we can see that we have start­ed trad­ing in a range after the uptrend 
    • The range is 51.80 lev­el to 52.90 lev­el and for now we are trad­ing in the upper half of the range above the VWAP mean and 50MA but we might be look­ing at a mean rever­sion at this stage
• What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
  • The AS bounced off the DPP 52.433 area and then trad­ed high­er to the 52.80 lev­el which could be a failed swing high and thus increase chances to roll over and drop down

Trade Plan

• I’ll be look­ing for PA to poten­tial­ly break DPP, WR2, and Dai­ly lev­el area and a poten­tial overex­tend­ed drop to DS1 51.852 area
  • This could give us some long opportunities
• If we BO here I’ll be look­ing for a test­ing of the DR2 53.804 and Week­ly 53.90 lev­el and find a poten­tial short oppor­tu­ni­ty there. How­ev­er, I believe that if we move high­er it will be a big move but let’s wait and see. 

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • Just before Lon­don open there was an inde­ci­sive can­dle out­side in the overex­tend­ed ter­ri­to­ry near DR1 so took a short after Lon­don open
  • T1 loss 12.3 ticks con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
  • Got stopped out and we quick­ly moved up through DR1 52.223
    • Next resis­tance tar­get is DR2 53.804 and Week­ly 53.9 lev­el which could give an oppor­tu­ni­ty for a swing play
  • T2 loss 11 ticks
    • I think I was more focused on tak­ing a trade than under­stand­ing mar­ket structure
  • T3
    • Loss 10.5 ticks on con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
  • 3 loss­es in a row. I’m going to take a 10–15 minute break and come back an reassess
  • Looks like we’re con­tin­u­ing up but then hit 1.5 SD on the 5M and had a some­what bear­ish can­dle. The 30M looks a bit bear­ish as well. I will wait for anoth­er con­fir­ma­tion on the 5M before enter­ing anoth­er short.
  • I feel out of tune with the mar­ket. PA feels slug­gish so some­thing is up. We are near a high­er time frame tech­ni­cal lev­el so that is prob­a­bly the rea­son why. I should be very cau­tious in con­tin­u­ing trad­ing today. I feel I shouldn’t take any more trades unless I am very confident.
  • What is so weird is that I wrote down that I should not take any more trades unless I’m con­fi­dent. Then I go ahead and take more trades. I was con­fi­dent about the first 2 and they net­ted me a prof­it. Then think­ing I got out too quick want­i­ng to make up for pre­vi­ous loss­es I got back in and the mar­ket turned in the oth­er direc­tion. After clos­ing a trade REASSESS!
  • I’m done trad­ing for today.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal Fade
    • 30M UKC
    • Swing high near DR1 53.223
    • 5M showed a doji can­dle in overex­tend zone 
    • Entry
      • 53.023 con­ser­v­a­tive siz­ing because it’s just after Lon­don open
  • SL
    • 53.111
  • TP
    • 52.844
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Stopped out at 53.146
    • Loss 12.3 ticks

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal Fade
    • After we moved through DR1 53.223 we had a lot of inde­ci­sion and 4H chart shows we hit 1.5 SD so thought a rever­sal at this point could be pos­si­ble and took a short
    • Entry
      • 53.307 opti­mistic siz­ing (prob­a­bly should have gone with conservative)
  • SL
    • 53.418
  • TP
    • 53.004
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I feel OK but I think the trade will go against me. It looks like we’ve been test­ing that same 53.365 lev­el in a mini ascend­ing tri­an­gle so yeah will prob­a­bly get stopped out.
    • It looks like we start­ed a mini range at this level
      • .300 and 0.65
      • If this does BD I will trail with my SL
      • But I think it is tak­ing too long for a move to hap­pen and there’s a voice in my head say­ing I should cov­er now but anoth­er voice says it might still go your way…. Let your stop play out
      • I think that I got in too ear­ly and will ana­lyze this lat­er on. I think that it might have been bet­ter if I wait­ed for PA to hit the next resis­tance lev­el before tak­ing a rever­sal after a sharp move up. The rea­son for tak­ing this is that we had a sharp move up but then there was no con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. 
      • Got stopped out at 53.417
        • Loss 11 ticks

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Same as pre­vi­ous trade
    • Because I got stopped out with a pos­si­ble too tight SL. PA quick­ly reversed and showed anoth­er inde­ci­sion candle
    • 53.369 on con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
  • SL
    • 53.456
  • TP
    • 52.831
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • STopped out at 53.474
    • Loss ‑10.5 ticks

• T4
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal / Swing Rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion / Squeeze
  • SL
  • TP
  • Trade Man­age­ment

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
  • I was not in-tune with the mar­ket today. I got in too quick­ly and got stopped out sev­er­al times. Then when I final­ly got a swing down I cov­ered too quick­ly at a small prof­it and for some rea­son got back in think­ing the move would con­tin­ue. I should ahve reassessed how the mar­ket struc­ture was set and seen that tak­ing a posi­tion at those points was a low R/R.
• P/L for the day

Open Time	Type	Size	Item	Price	S / L	T / P	Close Time	Price	P/L ticks
2019.01.11 12:40:54	sell	5	wti	53.185	53.506	52.818	2019.01.11 12:49:39	53.302	-11.70
2019.01.11 12:39:05	sell	5	wti	53.113	53.493	52.786	2019.01.11 12:49:38	53.302	-18.90
2019.01.11 12:35:08	sell	5	wti	53.127	53.485	52.805	2019.01.11 12:49:37	53.301	-17.40
2019.01.11 12:47:43	buy	10	wti	53.312	0	53.437	2019.01.11 12:49:19	53.263	-4.90
2019.01.11 12:15:21	sell	5	wti	53.275	53.602	52.591	2019.01.11 12:34:13	53.204	7.10
2019.01.11 12:10:08	sell	5	wti	53.305	53.588	52.557	2019.01.11 12:34:12	53.214	9.10
2019.01.11 11:06:01	sell	5	wti	53.369	53.456	52.831	2019.01.11 11:16:22	53.474	-10.50
2019.01.11 10:24:59	sell	10	wti	53.307	53.418	52.878	2019.01.11 11:00:09	53.417	-11.00
2019.01.11 10:06:50	sell	5	wti	53.023	53.111	52.844	2019.01.11 10:09:53	53.146	-12.30
-70.50

Dai­ly Report Card

• Only take Swing Rever­sal plays
  • Over­all Progress
    • I was doing well until I decid­ed to break my rules by chas­ing the mar­ket and obvi­ous­ly it went against me. Then I found myself chas­ing the mar­ket even more. I took one trade that went my way and added to my posi­tion. Then the mar­ket turned and went against me and I found myself rear­rang­ing my SL and when I real­ized that I just closed off my posi­tions and took the loss­es. Even though after­wards the mar­ket did go in my favor, but it’s good I closed them off. If I had won on trades not part of my plan then I just got lucky. I’m not in this to get lucky. I am in this for the long­haul and want to become a con­sis­tent­ly prof­itable trader.
  • What did I do well?
    • For the most part I let my stops get tak­en out but after a few loss­es I got sloppy
  • What do I need to improve?
    • Nev­er adjust stop losses
    • Under­stand that when you don’t sleep well you don’t focus well. You can’t show up not feel­ing your best. I will make steps to ensure I get my rest dur­ing the week. By any means. 
  • Lessons learned
    • You are in this to become a con­sis­tent­ly prof­itable trad­er so act like one. The mar­ket is not a bat­tle­field and you are not a sol­dier. It is an ocean and you are a fish­er­man. Be patient and under­stand your craft and then go out and per­form your best.
    • How will I try to pre­vend this in the future?
      • I will write a mantra to remind me of my goals and men­tal atti­tude and read it out loud every day
      • I will write out my trad­ing plan in more details and go back to only being allowed to take 4 trades. Win or loss. 
      • Let’s see how I will per­form next week.
  • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
    • 1