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0112019 Trade Plan — Possible BO of Daily 50MA - Bear Market Trader
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0112019 Trade Plan — Possible BO of Daily 50MA

0112019 Trade Plan — Possible BO of Daily 50MA

0112019 Trade Plan — Pos­si­ble BO of Dai­ly 50MA

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeMonTueWedThuFri
-1/71/81/91/101/11
Beers night before00040
Time bed yesterday11:0022:0722:4023:5622:19
woke up-6:226:208:306:36
Hours sleep8.58:157:408:348:17
Awake-1:291:101:131:46
REM-1:091:341:420:20
Light-4:183:454:245:17
Deep-1:191:111:250:54
Sleep well?23222
Mela­tonin1x01x00
Neg­a­tive thoughts?21110
Exer­cise yester(to)day33343
Grat­i­tude55555
Joy55555
Anger11111
Fear11111
Focus22333
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 1.5 hours at 7:30am1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop) in the morning1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop) in the morning
Inter­mit­tent fastingyesyesnoyesno
Water L23333
Vit­a­minsyesyesyesyesyes
Cig­a­rettes-43310

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I sleep enough hours but the qual­i­ty isn’t good. I can also see that my REM sleep went down to 20 min­utes even though I slept more than 8 hours. I will do some research on why this could be. If I’d have to give an answer I’m think­ing in the cor­ner of stress in my per­son­al life that could be the cul­prit. How­ev­er, I don’t feel too much stress there are things I wor­ry about as we all do. Per­haps they both­er me more than I let on (to myself). I will do some jour­nal­ing on this and see if that helps. Also learn more about REM sleep.
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good how­ev­er, I feel a bit jacked up as if I had too much caf­feine which I prob­a­bly did. I had a Turk­ish cof­fee in the morn­ing with one scoop of cof­fee so I will low­er that to only half a scoop and see how that goes. I feel just a lit­tle too jacked up too and could be a lit­tle less. So let’s see what half a scoop does and take it from there.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • Dur­ing the AS we start­ed inch­ing low­er and then bounced off the 51.80 area and then had small PA swings inch­ing back to this area which could be indica­tive of accumulation/distribution (the smart guys are more like­ly get­ting in or out of posi­tions here)
    • Then after Lon­don opened we had a swing rever­sal oppor­tu­ni­ty at the same area and made a first longer swing into the 50MA to drop down and test 30M 50MA again before hav­ing a cli­mac­tic move up to UKC and rolling over after it had hit resis­tance from the UKC, 4H tech lev­el, Dai­ly 50MA
    • We then con­se­quent­ly made a failed swing high indi­cat­ing more down­side and we then did trade low­er back to that 51.80 area below the 30M MA before we got pushed back up again test­ing the 52.50 area again with a high of around 52.90
      • Test­ing the Dai­ly 50MA
      • But we seem to have reject­ed this area for now and trad­ed low­er for the remain­der of the NY session

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • -6.270M
  • EIA report
    • -1.680M fore­cast ‑2.400M
  • EURUSD
    • High 1.15698
    • Low 1.14846
    • Close 1.14997
    • Still above pre­vi­ous range and 50MA inch­ing high­er towards the 200MA
  • Addi­tion­al

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

-FriWeekMonTueWedThu
-1/412/31 — 1/41/71/81/91/10
High49.39549.39549.97750.13952.78353.014
Low46.81944.50548.30948.48949.95351.643
Close48.48348.48348.94550.00152.40152.641
Pip move257.6489166.8165283137.1
PP48.23247.46149.07749.54351.71252.433
dis­tance141.3295.676.8105.4175.979
R149.64550.41749.84550.59753.47153.223
dis­tance257.6489166.8165283137.1
R250.80852.35150.74551.19354.54253.804
dis­tance-116.3-193.4-90-59.6-107.1-58.1
S147.06945.52748.17748.94750.64151.852
dis­tance-257.6-489-166.8-165-283-137.1
S245.65642.57147.40947.89348.88251.062
TV81,139284,27069,60861,22963,53966,078
50MA54.06264.36153.70153.34953.06252.786
200MA65.057-64.97964.90464.85264.797
ATR2.52024.41732.46092.37812.31022.2566
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • The dis­tances have shrunk again so we can pos­si­bly expect a big­ger move happening
  • ATR
    • 2.2566
    • ATR has decreased and could be an indi­ca­tion of more agree­ment in the market
  • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
    • We have the Dai­ly 52.30 as support
    • I’d say since we bounced off the 51.80 area yes­ter­day a few times that this is a tech­ni­cal lev­el as well
    • Then on the resis­tance side we have the 52.50 and 52.90 areas to consider
    • We are also very near the Dai­ly 50MA
  • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
Cur­rent52.7
Price
Dai­lyPriceDis­tance
50MA52.7869
200MA64.7971,210

S/Rkindlev­elDis­tance
R6Dai­ly641130
R5Dai­ly57.6490
R4Dai­ly55.2250
R3Week­ly53.9120
R2DR253.804110.4
R1DR153.22352.3
CURRENT-52.7-
S1DPP52.433-26.7
S2WR252.351-34.9
S3Dai­ly52.3-40
S4DS151.852-84.8
S5DS251.062-163.8
S6WR150.417-228.3
  • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
    • We crossed the Dai­ly area of 52.30 and could be that we made a dou­ble top on the 4H because we have a bear­ish can­dle at the 2nd test­ing of this area which is also the Dai­ly 50MA and the Dai­ly also shows an inde­ci­sive can­dle yesterday
    • The 4H is show­ing some loss in momen­tum there the 1.0 SD isn’t hold­ing up as sup­port as clearly
    • On the 30M chart we can see that we have start­ed trad­ing in a range after the uptrend 
      • The range is 51.80 lev­el to 52.90 lev­el and for now we are trad­ing in the upper half of the range above the VWAP mean and 50MA but we might be look­ing at a mean rever­sion at this stage
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • The AS bounced off the DPP 52.433 area and then trad­ed high­er to the 52.80 lev­el which could be a failed swing high and thus increase chances to roll over and drop down

Trade Plan

  • I’ll be look­ing for PA to poten­tial­ly break DPP, WR2, and Dai­ly lev­el area and a poten­tial overex­tend­ed drop to DS1 51.852 area
    • This could give us some long opportunities
  • If we BO here I’ll be look­ing for a test­ing of the DR2 53.804 and Week­ly 53.90 lev­el and find a poten­tial short oppor­tu­ni­ty there. How­ev­er, I believe that if we move high­er it will be a big move but let’s wait and see. 

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • Just before Lon­don open there was an inde­ci­sive can­dle out­side in the overex­tend­ed ter­ri­to­ry near DR1 so took a short after Lon­don open
    • T1 loss 12.3 ticks con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
    • Got stopped out and we quick­ly moved up through DR1 52.223
      • Next resis­tance tar­get is DR2 53.804 and Week­ly 53.9 lev­el which could give an oppor­tu­ni­ty for a swing play
    • T2 loss 11 ticks
      • I think I was more focused on tak­ing a trade than under­stand­ing mar­ket structure
    • T3
      • Loss 10.5 ticks on con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
    • 3 loss­es in a row. I’m going to take a 10–15 minute break and come back an reassess
    • Looks like we’re con­tin­u­ing up but then hit 1.5 SD on the 5M and had a some­what bear­ish can­dle. The 30M looks a bit bear­ish as well. I will wait for anoth­er con­fir­ma­tion on the 5M before enter­ing anoth­er short.
    • I feel out of tune with the mar­ket. PA feels slug­gish so some­thing is up. We are near a high­er time frame tech­ni­cal lev­el so that is prob­a­bly the rea­son why. I should be very cau­tious in con­tin­u­ing trad­ing today. I feel I shouldn’t take any more trades unless I am very confident.
    • What is so weird is that I wrote down that I should not take any more trades unless I’m con­fi­dent. Then I go ahead and take more trades. I was con­fi­dent about the first 2 and they net­ted me a prof­it. Then think­ing I got out too quick want­i­ng to make up for pre­vi­ous loss­es I got back in and the mar­ket turned in the oth­er direc­tion. After clos­ing a trade REASSESS!
    • I’m done trad­ing for today.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal Fade
      • 30M UKC
      • Swing high near DR1 53.223
      • 5M showed a doji can­dle in overex­tend zone 
      • Entry
        • 53.023 con­ser­v­a­tive siz­ing because it’s just after Lon­don open
    • SL
      • 53.111
    • TP
      • 52.844
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Stopped out at 53.146
      • Loss 12.3 ticks
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal Fade
      • After we moved through DR1 53.223 we had a lot of inde­ci­sion and 4H chart shows we hit 1.5 SD so thought a rever­sal at this point could be pos­si­ble and took a short
      • Entry
        • 53.307 opti­mistic siz­ing (prob­a­bly should have gone with conservative)
    • SL
      • 53.418
    • TP
      • 53.004
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I feel OK but I think the trade will go against me. It looks like we’ve been test­ing that same 53.365 lev­el in a mini ascend­ing tri­an­gle so yeah will prob­a­bly get stopped out.
      • It looks like we start­ed a mini range at this level
        • .300 and 0.65
        • If this does BD I will trail with my SL
        • But I think it is tak­ing too long for a move to hap­pen and there’s a voice in my head say­ing I should cov­er now but anoth­er voice says it might still go your way…. Let your stop play out
        • I think that I got in too ear­ly and will ana­lyze this lat­er on. I think that it might have been bet­ter if I wait­ed for PA to hit the next resis­tance lev­el before tak­ing a rever­sal after a sharp move up. The rea­son for tak­ing this is that we had a sharp move up but then there was no con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. 
        • Got stopped out at 53.417
          • Loss 11 ticks
  • T3
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Same as pre­vi­ous trade
      • Because I got stopped out with a pos­si­ble too tight SL. PA quick­ly reversed and showed anoth­er inde­ci­sion candle
      • 53.369 on con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
    • SL
      • 53.456
    • TP
      • 52.831
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • STopped out at 53.474
      • Loss ‑10.5 ticks
  • T4
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal / Swing Rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion / Squeeze
    • SL
      • TP
        • Trade Man­age­ment

        Trade Review

        • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
          • I was not in-tune with the mar­ket today. I got in too quick­ly and got stopped out sev­er­al times. Then when I final­ly got a swing down I cov­ered too quick­ly at a small prof­it and for some rea­son got back in think­ing the move would con­tin­ue. I should ahve reassessed how the mar­ket struc­ture was set and seen that tak­ing a posi­tion at those points was a low R/R.
        • P/L for the day
        Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticks
        2019.01.11 12:40:54sell5wti53.18553.50652.8182019.01.11 12:49:3953.302-11.70
        2019.01.11 12:39:05sell5wti53.11353.49352.7862019.01.11 12:49:3853.302-18.90
        2019.01.11 12:35:08sell5wti53.12753.48552.8052019.01.11 12:49:3753.301-17.40
        2019.01.11 12:47:43buy10wti53.312053.4372019.01.11 12:49:1953.263-4.90
        2019.01.11 12:15:21sell5wti53.27553.60252.5912019.01.11 12:34:1353.2047.10
        2019.01.11 12:10:08sell5wti53.30553.58852.5572019.01.11 12:34:1253.2149.10
        2019.01.11 11:06:01sell5wti53.36953.45652.8312019.01.11 11:16:2253.474-10.50
        2019.01.11 10:24:59sell10wti53.30753.41852.8782019.01.11 11:00:0953.417-11.00
        2019.01.11 10:06:50sell5wti53.02353.11152.8442019.01.11 10:09:5353.146-12.30
        -70.50

        Dai­ly Report Card

        • Only take Swing Rever­sal plays
          • Over­all Progress
            • I was doing well until I decid­ed to break my rules by chas­ing the mar­ket and obvi­ous­ly it went against me. Then I found myself chas­ing the mar­ket even more. I took one trade that went my way and added to my posi­tion. Then the mar­ket turned and went against me and I found myself rear­rang­ing my SL and when I real­ized that I just closed off my posi­tions and took the loss­es. Even though after­wards the mar­ket did go in my favor, but it’s good I closed them off. If I had won on trades not part of my plan then I just got lucky. I’m not in this to get lucky. I am in this for the long­haul and want to become a con­sis­tent­ly prof­itable trader.
          • What did I do well?
            • For the most part I let my stops get tak­en out but after a few loss­es I got sloppy
          • What do I need to improve?
            • Nev­er adjust stop losses
            • Under­stand that when you don’t sleep well you don’t focus well. You can’t show up not feel­ing your best. I will make steps to ensure I get my rest dur­ing the week. By any means. 
          • Lessons learned
            • You are in this to become a con­sis­tent­ly prof­itable trad­er so act like one. The mar­ket is not a bat­tle­field and you are not a sol­dier. It is an ocean and you are a fish­er­man. Be patient and under­stand your craft and then go out and per­form your best.
            • How will I try to pre­vend this in the future?
              • I will write a mantra to remind me of my goals and men­tal atti­tude and read it out loud every day
              • I will write out my trad­ing plan in more details and go back to only being allowed to take 4 trades. Win or loss. 
              • Let’s see how I will per­form next week.
          • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
            • 1
        T3chAddict
        t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

        Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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