
11 Jan 0112019 Trade Plan — Possible BO of Daily 50MA
0112019 Trade Plan — Possible BO of Daily 50MA
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri |
- | 1/7 | 1/8 | 1/9 | 1/10 | 1/11 |
Beers night before | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Time bed yesterday | 11:00 | 22:07 | 22:40 | 23:56 | 22:19 |
woke up | - | 6:22 | 6:20 | 8:30 | 6:36 |
Hours sleep | 8.5 | 8:15 | 7:40 | 8:34 | 8:17 |
Awake | - | 1:29 | 1:10 | 1:13 | 1:46 |
REM | - | 1:09 | 1:34 | 1:42 | 0:20 |
Light | - | 4:18 | 3:45 | 4:24 | 5:17 |
Deep | - | 1:19 | 1:11 | 1:25 | 0:54 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Melatonin | 1x | 0 | 1x | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 1.5 hours at 7:30am | 1 turkish coffee (1 scoop) in the morning | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 turkish coffee (1 scoop) in the morning |
Intermittent fasting | yes | yes | no | yes | no |
Water L | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | - | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I sleep enough hours but the quality isn’t good. I can also see that my REM sleep went down to 20 minutes even though I slept more than 8 hours. I will do some research on why this could be. If I’d have to give an answer I’m thinking in the corner of stress in my personal life that could be the culprit. However, I don’t feel too much stress there are things I worry about as we all do. Perhaps they bother me more than I let on (to myself). I will do some journaling on this and see if that helps. Also learn more about REM sleep.
- How do you feel?
- I feel good however, I feel a bit jacked up as if I had too much caffeine which I probably did. I had a Turkish coffee in the morning with one scoop of coffee so I will lower that to only half a scoop and see how that goes. I feel just a little too jacked up too and could be a little less. So let’s see what half a scoop does and take it from there.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- During the AS we started inching lower and then bounced off the 51.80 area and then had small PA swings inching back to this area which could be indicative of accumulation/distribution (the smart guys are more likely getting in or out of positions here)
- Then after London opened we had a swing reversal opportunity at the same area and made a first longer swing into the 50MA to drop down and test 30M 50MA again before having a climactic move up to UKC and rolling over after it had hit resistance from the UKC, 4H tech level, Daily 50MA
- We then consequently made a failed swing high indicating more downside and we then did trade lower back to that 51.80 area below the 30M MA before we got pushed back up again testing the 52.50 area again with a high of around 52.90
- Testing the Daily 50MA
- But we seem to have rejected this area for now and traded lower for the remainder of the NY session
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- -6.270M
- EIA report
- -1.680M forecast ‑2.400M
- EURUSD
- High 1.15698
- Low 1.14846
- Close 1.14997
- Still above previous range and 50MA inching higher towards the 200MA
- Additional
Intraday Technical Analysis
- | Fri | Week | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu |
- | 1/4 | 12/31 — 1/4 | 1/7 | 1/8 | 1/9 | 1/10 |
High | 49.395 | 49.395 | 49.977 | 50.139 | 52.783 | 53.014 |
Low | 46.819 | 44.505 | 48.309 | 48.489 | 49.953 | 51.643 |
Close | 48.483 | 48.483 | 48.945 | 50.001 | 52.401 | 52.641 |
Pip move | 257.6 | 489 | 166.8 | 165 | 283 | 137.1 |
PP | 48.232 | 47.461 | 49.077 | 49.543 | 51.712 | 52.433 |
distance | 141.3 | 295.6 | 76.8 | 105.4 | 175.9 | 79 |
R1 | 49.645 | 50.417 | 49.845 | 50.597 | 53.471 | 53.223 |
distance | 257.6 | 489 | 166.8 | 165 | 283 | 137.1 |
R2 | 50.808 | 52.351 | 50.745 | 51.193 | 54.542 | 53.804 |
distance | -116.3 | -193.4 | -90 | -59.6 | -107.1 | -58.1 |
S1 | 47.069 | 45.527 | 48.177 | 48.947 | 50.641 | 51.852 |
distance | -257.6 | -489 | -166.8 | -165 | -283 | -137.1 |
S2 | 45.656 | 42.571 | 47.409 | 47.893 | 48.882 | 51.062 |
TV | 81,139 | 284,270 | 69,608 | 61,229 | 63,539 | 66,078 |
50MA | 54.062 | 64.361 | 53.701 | 53.349 | 53.062 | 52.786 |
200MA | 65.057 | - | 64.979 | 64.904 | 64.852 | 64.797 |
ATR | 2.5202 | 4.4173 | 2.4609 | 2.3781 | 2.3102 | 2.2566 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- The distances have shrunk again so we can possibly expect a bigger move happening
- ATR
- 2.2566
- ATR has decreased and could be an indication of more agreement in the market
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- We have the Daily 52.30 as support
- I’d say since we bounced off the 51.80 area yesterday a few times that this is a technical level as well
- Then on the resistance side we have the 52.50 and 52.90 areas to consider
- We are also very near the Daily 50MA
- How far away are we from technical levels?
Current | 52.7 | |
Price | ||
Daily | Price | Distance |
50MA | 52.786 | 9 |
200MA | 64.797 | 1,210 |
S/R | kind | level | Distance |
R6 | Daily | 64 | 1130 |
R5 | Daily | 57.6 | 490 |
R4 | Daily | 55.2 | 250 |
R3 | Weekly | 53.9 | 120 |
R2 | DR2 | 53.804 | 110.4 |
R1 | DR1 | 53.223 | 52.3 |
CURRENT | - | 52.7 | - |
S1 | DPP | 52.433 | -26.7 |
S2 | WR2 | 52.351 | -34.9 |
S3 | Daily | 52.3 | -40 |
S4 | DS1 | 51.852 | -84.8 |
S5 | DS2 | 51.062 | -163.8 |
S6 | WR1 | 50.417 | -228.3 |
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- We crossed the Daily area of 52.30 and could be that we made a double top on the 4H because we have a bearish candle at the 2nd testing of this area which is also the Daily 50MA and the Daily also shows an indecisive candle yesterday
- The 4H is showing some loss in momentum there the 1.0 SD isn’t holding up as support as clearly
- On the 30M chart we can see that we have started trading in a range after the uptrend
- The range is 51.80 level to 52.90 level and for now we are trading in the upper half of the range above the VWAP mean and 50MA but we might be looking at a mean reversion at this stage
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- The AS bounced off the DPP 52.433 area and then traded higher to the 52.80 level which could be a failed swing high and thus increase chances to roll over and drop down
Trade Plan
- I’ll be looking for PA to potentially break DPP, WR2, and Daily level area and a potential overextended drop to DS1 51.852 area
- This could give us some long opportunities
- If we BO here I’ll be looking for a testing of the DR2 53.804 and Weekly 53.90 level and find a potential short opportunity there. However, I believe that if we move higher it will be a big move but let’s wait and see.
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- Just before London open there was an indecisive candle outside in the overextended territory near DR1 so took a short after London open
- T1 loss 12.3 ticks conservative sizing
- Got stopped out and we quickly moved up through DR1 52.223
- Next resistance target is DR2 53.804 and Weekly 53.9 level which could give an opportunity for a swing play
- T2 loss 11 ticks
- I think I was more focused on taking a trade than understanding market structure
- T3
- Loss 10.5 ticks on conservative sizing
- 3 losses in a row. I’m going to take a 10–15 minute break and come back an reassess
- Looks like we’re continuing up but then hit 1.5 SD on the 5M and had a somewhat bearish candle. The 30M looks a bit bearish as well. I will wait for another confirmation on the 5M before entering another short.
- I feel out of tune with the market. PA feels sluggish so something is up. We are near a higher time frame technical level so that is probably the reason why. I should be very cautious in continuing trading today. I feel I shouldn’t take any more trades unless I am very confident.
- What is so weird is that I wrote down that I should not take any more trades unless I’m confident. Then I go ahead and take more trades. I was confident about the first 2 and they netted me a profit. Then thinking I got out too quick wanting to make up for previous losses I got back in and the market turned in the other direction. After closing a trade REASSESS!
- I’m done trading for today.
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal Fade
- 30M UKC
- Swing high near DR1 53.223
- 5M showed a doji candle in overextend zone
- Entry
- 53.023 conservative sizing because it’s just after London open
- SL
- 53.111
- TP
- 52.844
- Trade Management
- Stopped out at 53.146
- Loss 12.3 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal Fade
- After we moved through DR1 53.223 we had a lot of indecision and 4H chart shows we hit 1.5 SD so thought a reversal at this point could be possible and took a short
- Entry
- 53.307 optimistic sizing (probably should have gone with conservative)
- SL
- 53.418
- TP
- 53.004
- Trade Management
- I feel OK but I think the trade will go against me. It looks like we’ve been testing that same 53.365 level in a mini ascending triangle so yeah will probably get stopped out.
- It looks like we started a mini range at this level
- .300 and 0.65
- If this does BD I will trail with my SL
- But I think it is taking too long for a move to happen and there’s a voice in my head saying I should cover now but another voice says it might still go your way…. Let your stop play out
- I think that I got in too early and will analyze this later on. I think that it might have been better if I waited for PA to hit the next resistance level before taking a reversal after a sharp move up. The reason for taking this is that we had a sharp move up but then there was no continuation to the move.
- Got stopped out at 53.417
- Loss 11 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T3
- Why? What do I see?
- Same as previous trade
- Because I got stopped out with a possible too tight SL. PA quickly reversed and showed another indecision candle
- 53.369 on conservative sizing
- SL
- 53.456
- TP
- 52.831
- Trade Management
- STopped out at 53.474
- Loss ‑10.5 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T4
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal / Swing Reversal with continuation / Squeeze
- SL
- TP
- Trade Management
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I was not in-tune with the market today. I got in too quickly and got stopped out several times. Then when I finally got a swing down I covered too quickly at a small profit and for some reason got back in thinking the move would continue. I should ahve reassessed how the market structure was set and seen that taking a position at those points was a low R/R.
- P/L for the day
Open Time | Type | Size | Item | Price | S / L | T / P | Close Time | Price | P/L ticks |
2019.01.11 12:40:54 | sell | 5 | wti | 53.185 | 53.506 | 52.818 | 2019.01.11 12:49:39 | 53.302 | -11.70 |
2019.01.11 12:39:05 | sell | 5 | wti | 53.113 | 53.493 | 52.786 | 2019.01.11 12:49:38 | 53.302 | -18.90 |
2019.01.11 12:35:08 | sell | 5 | wti | 53.127 | 53.485 | 52.805 | 2019.01.11 12:49:37 | 53.301 | -17.40 |
2019.01.11 12:47:43 | buy | 10 | wti | 53.312 | 0 | 53.437 | 2019.01.11 12:49:19 | 53.263 | -4.90 |
2019.01.11 12:15:21 | sell | 5 | wti | 53.275 | 53.602 | 52.591 | 2019.01.11 12:34:13 | 53.204 | 7.10 |
2019.01.11 12:10:08 | sell | 5 | wti | 53.305 | 53.588 | 52.557 | 2019.01.11 12:34:12 | 53.214 | 9.10 |
2019.01.11 11:06:01 | sell | 5 | wti | 53.369 | 53.456 | 52.831 | 2019.01.11 11:16:22 | 53.474 | -10.50 |
2019.01.11 10:24:59 | sell | 10 | wti | 53.307 | 53.418 | 52.878 | 2019.01.11 11:00:09 | 53.417 | -11.00 |
2019.01.11 10:06:50 | sell | 5 | wti | 53.023 | 53.111 | 52.844 | 2019.01.11 10:09:53 | 53.146 | -12.30 |
-70.50 |
Daily Report Card
- Only take Swing Reversal plays
- Overall Progress
- I was doing well until I decided to break my rules by chasing the market and obviously it went against me. Then I found myself chasing the market even more. I took one trade that went my way and added to my position. Then the market turned and went against me and I found myself rearranging my SL and when I realized that I just closed off my positions and took the losses. Even though afterwards the market did go in my favor, but it’s good I closed them off. If I had won on trades not part of my plan then I just got lucky. I’m not in this to get lucky. I am in this for the longhaul and want to become a consistently profitable trader.
- What did I do well?
- For the most part I let my stops get taken out but after a few losses I got sloppy
- What do I need to improve?
- Never adjust stop losses
- Understand that when you don’t sleep well you don’t focus well. You can’t show up not feeling your best. I will make steps to ensure I get my rest during the week. By any means.
- Lessons learned
- You are in this to become a consistently profitable trader so act like one. The market is not a battlefield and you are not a soldier. It is an ocean and you are a fisherman. Be patient and understand your craft and then go out and perform your best.
- How will I try to prevend this in the future?
- I will write a mantra to remind me of my goals and mental attitude and read it out loud every day
- I will write out my trading plan in more details and go back to only being allowed to take 4 trades. Win or loss.
- Let’s see how I will perform next week.
- Grade yourself 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
- 1
- Overall Progress
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