Bear Market Trader | Weekly outlook on WTI crude oil market
oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trading, daytrading, commodities, the big picture, one good trade, the playbook
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01132019 Weekly Big Picture

01132019 Weekly Big Picture

01132019 Week­ly Big Picture

This is part of my week­ly prepa­ra­tion of my trad­ing week to give me an idea on where I think the mar­ket stands. 

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Review­ing the health progress

  • Points from last week’s Big Picture
    • Goals for this week
      • Exer­cise 2 times
        • I didn’t have a work­out but I did go out for walks. I will sched­ule time for work­ing out. I will work out on Wednes­day morn­ing before I start ana­lyz­ing charts of the pre­vi­ous day.
      • Don’t drink caf­feine dur­ing the week
        • I’m going to change this into don’t drink too much caffeine
        • I tried out drink­ing Turk­ish cof­fee with one scoop of cof­fee but I will low­er this to a half scoop
      • Watch the social gatherings
        • Fri­day I went to a bar and Sat­ur­day I had a friend over and both days I drank too much
      • Fast at least twice
        • I fast­ed 3 times last week and will con­tin­ue to do so this week
      • Review play­book setups
        • I did review my play­book setups and have been going through them in my mind as well
      • Review trades!
        • I reviewed my trades.
  • How did you do the whole week?
    • I did OK. How­ev­er, I should do bet­ter. I need to get my week­ends under con­trol som I can get a jump­start on the week. This not sleep­ing well on the week­ends is inter­fer­ing with my trading. 

Last week’s trading

  • How did you do?
    • Did you stick to your play­book setups?
      • I messed up in the mid­dle of the week and decid­ed at some point to close every­thing off and take a break. I was not on point so this week I’ll go down in posi­tion siz­ing since appar­ent­ly I don’t deserve to trade bigger.
    • Did you stick to your posi­tion siz­ing rules?
      • I did stick to this rule.
    • Did you review your play­book setups?
      • I did.
    • Did you review your trades?
      • I did

What are you goals for the week?

  • Stick to play­book setups
  • Trade with con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
  • Only go out on Fri­day and be sure to be home before 2AM
  • Sat­ur­day stay home
  • Go for a ride or do some­thing on the week­end to get away from trading
  • Exer­cise 2 times
  • Log trades better
  • Ana­lyze logged trades

The Big Picture

  • WTI
    • What hap­pened last week?
      • Last week we went knock­ing on the Dai­ly 50MA and it looked like we were gonna break it but we didn’t just yet
      • We might see a good pull­back before we cre­ate the momen­tum to break out
      • The 4H chart shows that we are rolling over con­firm­ing that we’re not going to BO just yet
    • What is the sup­ply and demand balance?
      • API ‑6.270M
      • EIA ‑1.680M fore­cast ‑2.400M
      • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
        • Last week’s sen­ti­ment numbers
          • All sen­ti­ments is 60% bullish
          • Last week 62% bullish
          • Last 3 days 62% bullish
        • This week’s
          • All sen­ti­ments is 58% bullish
          • Last week 61% bullish
          • Last 3 days 60% bullish
        • We decreased in bull­ish­ness a lit­tle bit

-12/31 — 1/41/71/81/91/101/111/7 — 1/11
Pip move489166.8165283137.1213.4524.7
  • What is the Tick Vol­ume showing?
    • We con­tin­ued to have TV around the 60–70K levels
    • In com­par­i­son with the week before we did increase in TV which I believe makes sense because we were near­ing a high­er time frame tech­ni­cal level
  • What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?
    • Piv­ot levels
      • On the sup­port side we have the WPP 51.267 and DS1 51.054 lev­els that seem significant
      • On the resis­tance side we have the DR1 53.188 and the Week­ly 53.9 that coin­cides with the Dai­ly 50MA level 
    • Dai­ly chart
      • Mov­ing Averages
        • We are very close to the 50MA and this explains why PA is dif­fer­ent. More play­ers com­ing in try­ing to trade this level
    • 4H chart
      • The 4H chart shows exhaus­tion in the move up and we made a pull­back. How­ev­er we have not bro­ken the uptrend yet. 
      • We are at a fair­ly sig­nif­i­cant sup­port lev­el with WPP 51.267 and DS1 51.054
        • Which is also the 30M 200MA level
  • How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?

S/Rkindlev­elDis­tanceRate it 1–10Why?
R6Dai­ly55.23706Pre­vi­ous pull­back level
R5DR254.439293.98Near WR1
R4WR154.225272.58Near DR2
R3Week­ly53.924010D 50MA area
R2DR153.188168.810D 50MA area
R1Dai­ly52.38084H over­bought level
S1WPP51.267-23.39near DS1 and 30M 200MA
S2DS151.054-44.69near WPP and 30M 200MA
S3DS250.171-132.96kin­da near to D 49.8
S4Dai­ly49.8-1706kin­da near to DS2
S5WS148.978-252.28Pre­vi­ous con­sol­i­da­tion level
S6Week­ly47.5-4008Week­ly level
  • Is the mar­ket trend­ing up or down?
    • Up
      • The uptrend hasn’t been bro­ken yet but could be trad­ing shal­low­er since we are at a high­er time frame tech­ni­cal level
        • Thus rea­son for range trad­ing if there’s no momen­tum for a BO
  • Is there an OPEC meeting?
    • Nope
    • What is last week’s price range?
      • High    1.15698
      • Low    1.13930
      • Close    1.14661
      • PA is above the 200MA but udner the 50MA
      • We seem to have bounced off the bot­tom of the range and are mid­way towards the high of the range
  • Gold
    • What is last week’s price range?
      • High    1297.06
      • Low    1279.52
      • Close    1287.22
      • PA is above the 50MA and 200MA how­ev­er is show­ing weak­ness and could be revers­ing at this lev­el for the medi­um term
  • Geopol­i­tics
    • What’s going on in the world of geopolitics?
      • Turkey urges U.S. to hon­or part­ner­ship after Trump tweet on eco­nom­ic devastation
        • ISTANBUL (Reuters) — Pres­i­dent Tayyip Erdo­gan’s spokesman said on Mon­day Turkey expect­ed the Unit­ed States to hon­or their strate­gic part­ner­ship after U.S. Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump tweet­ed that it “Will dev­as­tate Turkey eco­nom­i­cal­ly if they hit Kurds”.
      • Asia shares, U.S. stock futures slide as Chi­na’s exports slump jolts investors
        • SYDNEY (Reuters) — Asian shares and U.S. stock futures skid­ded on Mon­day after a shock con­trac­tion in Chi­nese exports point­ed to deep­en­ing cracks in the world’s sec­ond-biggest econ­o­my and raised fears of a sharp­er slow­down in glob­al growth and cor­po­rate profits.
      • Chi­na’s exports shrink most in 2 years, rais­ing risks for glob­al economy
        • BEIJING (Reuters) — Chi­na’s exports unex­pect­ed­ly fell the most in two years in Decem­ber and imports also con­tract­ed, point­ing to fur­ther weak­ness in the world’s sec­ond-largest econ­o­my in 2019 and dete­ri­o­rat­ing glob­al demand.
      • Venezuela oppo­si­tion leader Guai­do address­es ral­ly after brief detention
        • CARABALLEDA, Venezuela (Reuters) — Venezue­lan oppo­si­tion leader Juan Guai­do led a ral­ly on Sun­day after being briefly detained by intel­li­gence agents, days after say­ing he would be will­ing to replace the increas­ing­ly iso­lat­ed Pres­i­dent Nico­las Maduro.
      • France’s Le Pen launch­es EU cam­paign with appeal to ‘yel­low vests’
        • PARIS (Reuters) — French far-right leader Marine Le Pen launched her cam­paign for the May 26 Euro­pean Par­lia­ment elec­tion on Sun­day with an appeal to the broad “yel­low vest” protest move­ment that has rat­tled the government.
      • Urg­ing Gulf states to heal rift, U.S.‘s Pom­peo arrives in Riyadh
        • DOHA/RIYADH (Reuters) — U.S. Sec­re­tary of State Mike Pom­peo said on Sun­day that a rift between Qatar and its Gulf Arab neigh­bors had gone on for too long and was threat­en­ing region­al uni­ty need­ed to counter Iran.
      • Iran says it is tak­ing ini­tial steps to design reac­tor fuel
        • DUBAI (Reuters) — Iran is tak­ing pre­lim­i­nary steps to design ura­ni­um fuel with a puri­ty of 20 per­cent for reac­tors instead of hav­ing to copy for­eign designs, Iran’s nuclear chief said on Sunday.
      • Dam­as­cus seeks ‘inten­si­fied’ talks with Kurds: official
        • DAMASCUS (Reuters) — The Syr­i­an gov­ern­ment hopes dia­logue with Syr­i­an Kur­dish groups will inten­si­fy, a min­is­ter said on Sun­day, sig­nal­ing sup­port for talks the Kurds hope will lead to a polit­i­cal deal between two of the main play­ers in the mul­ti-sided war.
      • Iran protests to Poland over Iran-focused summit
        • DUBAI (Reuters) — Iran’s for­eign min­istry sum­moned a senior Pol­ish diplo­mat to protest at Poland joint­ly host­ing a glob­al sum­mit with the Unit­ed States focused on the Mid­dle East, par­tic­u­lar­ly Iran, state news agency IRNA report­ed on Sunday.
      • Yemen’s Houthis threat­en more drone attacks
        • SANAA (Reuters) — The Iran­ian-aligned Houthi group threat­ened on Sun­day to launch more drone attacks after a dead­ly strike last week on a Yemeni gov­ern­ment mil­i­tary parade, stok­ing ten­sion between the war­ring par­ties amid U.N. peace efforts.
      • Israel claims Syr­ia air strike, says hunt for Hezbol­lah tun­nels over
        • JERUSALEM (Reuters) — Israel acknowl­edged on Sun­day that it car­ried out a week­end airstrike on what it called an Iran­ian arms cache in Syr­ia, and that it also com­plet­ed a hunt for cross-bor­der tun­nels dug by Tehran-allied Lebanese Hezbol­lah guerrillas.


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 



Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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