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01142019 Trade Plan — range bound trading — low liquidity

Daily Report Card

01142019 Trade Plan — range bound trading — low liquidity

01142019 Trade Plan — range bound trad­ing — low liquidity

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeThuFriSatSunMon
-1/101/111/121/131/14
Beers night before40880
Time bed yesterday23:5622:19latelate22:53
woke up8:306:36--8:21
Hours sleep8:348:17669:28
Awake1:131:46--1:15
REM1:420:20--1:28
Light4:245:17--5:47
Deep1:250:54--0:58
Sleep well?22113
Mela­tonin0001x0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?10222
Exer­cise yester(to)day43113
Grat­i­tude55555
Joy55555
Anger11111
Fear11111
Focus33113
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop) in the morning1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop)no1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fastingyesnononoyes, 11/4
Water L33223
Vit­a­minsyesyesnonoyes
Cig­a­rettes31010100

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • Not too good. Didn’t sleep enough on the week­end and I drank both Fri­day and Sat­ur­day and am pay­ing for it now. I have set a goal for this week to lim­it it to one day and have to be home early. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel tired and not sharp but also kin­da hap­py. I met some­one knew and feel a bit excit­ed about it. Been a while for me. Although great for me, not too great for trad­ing I believe. Over­ly hap­py, excit­ed is also not good to bring into the mar­kets. So because of this and being tired and not sharp I will most like­ly not take any trades. I will sit here and observe the mar­ket the way I nor­mal­ly do. If there is an oppor­tu­ni­ty that I feel con­fi­dent about I will take a con­ser­v­a­tive sized position. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 4

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • On Fri­day we start­ed the AS ses­sion by bounc­ing off the DPP 52.433 and trad­ed up ever since in small PA bars on the 30M
    • Then dur­ing the LS we made a sharp move out­side of the KC into 2.0 SD (which is also a HTF tech­ni­cal lev­el) and formed a dou­ble top because of a quick rejec­tion in terms of a failed swing high on the 5M
    • After that we trad­ed low­er until we found sup­port around the 51.80 area bounc­ing as low as 51.50 which was a pre­vi­ous swing low on the HTF

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • None
  • EIA report
    • None
  • EURUSD
    • High 1.15405
    • Low 1.14581
  • Addi­tion­al
    • None

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • On the sup­port side we have the WPP 51.267 and DS1 51.054 lev­els that seem significant
    • On the resis­tance side we have the DR1 53.188 and the Week­ly 53.9 that coin­cides with the Dai­ly 50MA level 
  • ATR
    • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
      • We are very close to the 50MA and this explains why PA is dif­fer­ent. More play­ers com­ing in try­ing to trade this level
      • The 4H chart shows exhaus­tion in the move up and we made a pull­back. How­ev­er we have not bro­ken the uptrend yet. 
      • We are at a fair­ly sig­nif­i­cant sup­port lev­el with WPP 51.267 and DS1 51.054
        • Which is also the 30M 200MA level
    • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
    Cur­rent51.5
    Price
    Dai­lyPriceDis­tance
    50MA52.786129
    200MA64.7971,330

    S/Rkindlev­elDis­tanceRate it 1–10Why?
    R6Dai­ly55.23706Pre­vi­ous pull­back level
    R5DR254.439293.98Near WR1
    R4WR154.225272.58Near DR2
    R3Week­ly53.924010D 50MA area
    R2DR153.188168.810D 50MA area
    R1Dai­ly52.38084H over­bought level
    CURRENT-51.5---
    S1WPP51.267-23.39near DS1 and 30M 200MA
    S2DS151.054-44.69near WPP and 30M 200MA
    S3DS250.171-132.96kin­da near to D 49.8
    S4Dai­ly49.8-1706kin­da near to DS2
    S5WS148.978-252.28Pre­vi­ous con­sol­i­da­tion level
    S6Week­ly47.5-4008Week­ly level

    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • AS con­tin­ued the trend down on the 30M bounc­ing off of WPP 51.267 and then DS1 51.054

    Trade Plan

    • Be extra cau­tious tak­ing trades today
    • Wait for an overex­tend­ed move into  S/R area to take SR play
    • Pos­si­ble inter­est­ing areas are the WPP 51.267 and DS1 51.054 area

    My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

    • Be extra cau­tious and only take SR plays

    Read­ing the Tape

    • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
      • After Lon­don opened we made a sharp move down into DS1 51.054 and reject­ed quick­ly to reverse back up
      • T1 con­ser­v­a­tive sizing 
        • Scratched, and missed out on 40+ tick profit
      • T2 con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
        • Loss 30 ticks
      • After touch­ing and revers­ing at the 5M UKC we dropped back down to pos­si­bly BD from LKC
        • Almost into the 30M 2.0 SD but pushed back into 1.5 SD
      • T3 con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
        • Win 5.1 ticks
      • PA actu­al­ly moved fur­ther up and I could have pock­et­ed more profits
        • I saw what looked like inde­ci­sion and decid­ed to close off my position
      • PA is very slug­gish for the most part and the spread has widened to 39 for the most part as well. Could be less liq­uid­i­ty since we are at a crit­i­cal point on the HTF where we might see a TC or TT
      • There is a KC VWAP con­ver­gence indi­cat­ing high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty for range bound trading
      • Looks like sell­ers are step­ping in at the UKC in line with the KC VWAP con­ver­gence range bound trading
        • Was think­ing to go short here but didn’t because it didn’t feel like it my SR set­up since I had pre­vi­ous­ly indi­cat­ed this kind of set­up as the KC VWAP con­ver­gence range bound trad­ing and thus it’s not my swing reversal
          • I’ll take this set­up into my playbook 
      • Was think­ing to enter with a short at UKC but PA a few bars ear­li­er were very inde­ci­sive so that made me hes­i­tate and thus since I’m not con­fi­dent I will take the trade

    Trade Man­age­ment

    Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

    • T1
      • Why? What do I see?
        • Swing Rever­sal 30M Fade
        • SR into 30M 1.5 SD around DS1 level
        • Entry
          • 50.919 with con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
      • SL
        • 50.828
      • TP
        • 51.211
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Saw it was more like­ly to drop fur­ther so scratched it
        • Cov­ered at 50.918
        • PA actu­al­ly did move in my favor after all
          • Missed out on a pos­si­ble 40 ticks
            • My fault for not being sharp today
    • T2
      • Why? What do I see?
        • UKC BO (not part of my goal for today)
        • Looked like we broke back into the 30M KC and a pos­si­ble VWAP BO so went long
          • Entry
            • 51.503 on con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
      • SL
        • 51.214
      • TP
        • 51.958
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Got stopped out at 51.202
        • Loss 30 ticks
        • Total­ly against my plan and on top of that I was think­ing to actu­al­ly short here since it did fit my set­up cri­te­ria but I didn’t. Only to see PA move in my favor (had I tak­en my play­book set­up) for about 40 ticks. Les­son learned. Be care­ful when not sharp. 
    • T3
      • Why? What do I see?
        • Swing Rever­sal 30M Fade
        • 5M overex­tend­ed 30M into 2.0 SD being pushed back
        • 4H into 2.0 SD
        • Entry con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
          • 50.820
      • SL
        • 50.670
      • TP
        • 51.242
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • It didn’t move back up as fast as I would have liked so I got out at 50.871
        • Win 5.1 ticks
        • What I did do well was that I was more patient than usu­al and was look­ing to see where I could trail with my stop. This might still go in my favor (well I’m out so it doesn’t mat­ter) but I felt that PA was extreme­ly slug­gish all of the sud­den and didn’t move much so I got out. 

    Trade Review

    • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
      • I tried and when it felt like I had to get out I got out. I have to real­ly detail my exit rules and will work on this some more. I will revamp my trad­ing plan and keep it next to me at all times.
    • P/L for the day
    Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticks
    2019.01.14 12:25:23buy2wti50.8250.73151.4082019.01.14 12:44:3850.8715.10
    2019.01.14 11:30:12buy2wti51.50351.21451.9582019.01.14 11:44:5051.202-30.10
    2019.01.14 10:57:41buy2wti50.91950.82851.2112019.01.14 11:00:1250.9180.10
    ----------24.90

    Dai­ly Report Card

    • Be extra cau­tious and only take SR plays
      • Over­all Progress
        • I took a trade that wasn’t a SR trade even though I said I should be more cau­tious. I will reflect on that.
      • What did I do well?
        • I used con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
        • I worked on being a bit more patient by trail­ing with my SL
          • I’ll need to work on this some more
            • Key to get­ter bet­ter at this is to get con­fi­dent in my setups and how do I get con­fi­dent in my setups is by back­test­ing and review­ing my trades. 
        • Logged my trades straight away into my excel sheet for future ref­er­ence. On the week­end I will think about the met­rics on which I want to judge my trades on. 
      • What do I need to improve?
        • Be more patient in trades. Accept a trade to be a loss and let the rest play out. Accept that you set a loss tar­get for a par­tic­u­lar oppor­tu­ni­ty and accept that you have already lost that much. Then let the win­ning side play out the way you think it’s going to play out. 
        • Real­ly hold your­self account­able that when you are not sharp, too tired, or too emo­tion­al that you don’t trade unless you’re absolute­ly sure and even then you trade with con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
      • Lessons learned
        • Review­ing my trades tak­en is going to give me more insight into my poten­tial for becom­ing a CPT
      • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
        • 3

    Feed­back?

    Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

    T3chAddict
    t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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