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01152019 Trade Plan — market balancing

Daily Report Card

01152019 Trade Plan — market balancing

01152019 Trade Plan — mar­ket balancing

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeFriSatSunMonTue
-1/111/121/131/141/15
Beers night before08801 fin­ger whiskey
Time bed yesterday22:19latelate22:5322:01
woke up6:36--8:216:11
Hours sleep8:17669:288:10
Awake1:46--1:151:54
REM0:20--1:280:30
Light5:17--5:474:50
Deep0:54--0:580:56
Sleep well?21133
Mela­tonin001x00
Neg­a­tive thoughts?02221
Exer­cise yester(to)day31133
Grat­i­tude55555
Joy55555
Anger11111
Fear11111
Focus31132
Cof­fees today1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop) in the morning1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop)no1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon1 Turk­ish cof­fee half scoop in morning
Inter­mit­tent fastingnononoyes, 11/4no
Water L32234
Vit­a­minsyesnonoyesyes
Cig­a­rettes10101000

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I should stop tak­ing any pills to help me sleep. I feel that it just makes me feel ‘edgy’ the next day or two days after. This is not the right state to be in to be focused.
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel tired and grog­gy even though I slept a lit­tle over 8 hours. I did not get enough deep sleep I think. Plus the effects of the sleep­ing aid I took two days ago are caus­ing me to not feel sharp and good over­all today. need a larg­er sam­ple size to make bet­ter con­clu­sions on my sleep so will keep track­ing my sleep cycles.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Yes­ter­day dur­ing the AS we bounced off the 51.10 (which was also WPP 51.267 area) but then con­tin­ued low­er and test­ed the DS1 51.054 area
    • Lon­don opened high­er below the WPP 51.267 lev­el and imme­di­ate­ly showed weak­ness and we dropped hard below the 51.10 into the 50.80s before get­ting pushed back up hard and had a swing high to 51.40 lev­el before swing­ing back low to 50.70 level
      • I believe the mar­ket was not trend­ing dur­ing all this but we were try­ing to find balance
    • We then made a swing high at pre­vi­ous swing high 51.40 and swing low at WPP 51.267 as support
      • And then made a messy run high to 52 lev­el before we even­tu­al­ly dropped back down to 50.80 level

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Com­ing out today
  • EIA report
    • Com­ing out tomorrow

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

-MonTueWedThuFriWeekMon
-1/71/81/91/101/111/7 — 1/111/14
High49.97750.13952.78353.01453.55653.55652.349
Low48.30948.48949.95351.64351.42248.30950.627
Close48.94550.00152.40152.64151.93751.93751.003
Pip move166.8165283137.1213.4524.7172.2
PP49.07749.54351.71252.43352.30551.26751.326
dis­tance76.8105.4175.97988.3295.869.9
R149.84550.59753.47153.22353.18854.22552.025
dis­tance166.8165283137.1213.4524.7172.2
R250.74551.19354.54253.80454.43956.51453.048
dis­tance-90-59.6-107.1-58.1-125.1-228.9-102.3
S148.17748.94750.64151.85251.05448.97850.303
dis­tance-166.8-165-283-137.1-213.4-524.7-172.2
S247.40947.89348.88251.06250.17146.0249.604
TV69,60861,22963,53966,07865,509325,96369,035
50MA53.70153.34953.06252.78652.52764.07852.276
200MA64.97964.90464.85264.79764.739-64.676
ATR2.46092.37812.31022.25662.27864.8912.2847
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • PP lev­els con­tract­ed and thus we could be set­ting up for a big­ger move today
  • ATR
    • ATR has been around the same lev­els as last week
  • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
    • Val­ue
      • 50.80 lev­el is were most buy­ers seem to come in
    • Excess
      • 51.80 lev­el is were most sell­ers seem to come in
  • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
    • High 52.349
    • Low 50.627
  • What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing or balancing?
    • I believe the mar­ket is bal­anc­ing and decid­ing to poten­tial­ly go back up again
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • The 51.80 lev­el would be a good short oppor­tu­ni­ty since we’d be around the 30M 200MA lev­el, DR1 52.025 and UKC as well
    • On the long side the 50.80 area would be good since there we have the LKC 
  • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
Cur­rent51.4
Price
Dai­lyPriceDis­tance
50MA52.27688
200MA64.6761,328
Yes­ter­day’s high52.34995
Yes­ter­day’s low50.627-77

S/Rkindlev­elDis­tanceRate it 1–10Why?
R6Week­ly53.92508above HTF swing high
R5DR253.048164.810prev. HTF swing high
R4Yes. High52.34994.98yes­ter­day’s high
R3Dai­ly52.3909D 50MA area
R2DR152.02562.510D 50MA area
R1Excess51.84010yes­ter­day’s high
CURRENT-51.4---
S1DPP51.326-7.46very near to cur­rent PA
S2WPP51.267-13.36very near to cur­rent PA
S3Val­ue area50.8-6010yes­ter­day’s low
S4Yes. Low50.627-77.38yes­ter­day’s low
S5DS150.303-109.784H 50MA area
S6Dai­ly49.8-16084H 50MA area
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • After we bounced off of the 50.80 lev­el yes­ter­day we opened the AS with con­tin­u­ing this trend up and then start­ed rolling over into DPP 51.326 and WPP 51.267

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1
    • We BD from DPP/WPP and start test­ing yesterday’s low which is also the val­ue area and 30M LKC around 50.80 area
      • We could overex­tend into this area and come into buy­ers and have a 30M DT SR TT oppor­tu­ni­ty to even­tu­al­ly break the 30M DT that is part of the HTF pullback
      • Prof­it target
        • 52 area
  • Hypo 2
    • We ral­ly into excess ter­ri­to­ry and overex­tend on the LTF into this area which is also the 30M 200MA and UKC area around 51.80
      • This could have the poten­tial for a 30M DT SR TC oppor­tu­ni­ty by buy­ers com­ing into this area and push­ing PA back down
      • Prof­it target
        • This could be a huge move down to poten­tial­ly 49.80 (even­tu­al­ly)
        • Dur­ing Lon­don I’d set my prof­it tar­get to 50.50
  • Hypo 3
    • We ral­ly into excess ter­ri­to­ry and break it to even­tu­al­ly make a failed swing high around 52.30 level
      • Overex­tend into this area and roll over to even­tu­al­ly make a move down blast­ing through 50.30 prob­a­bly the next day
      • Prof­it target 
        • 51 lev­el

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Get con­sis­tent only tak­ing SR plays

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • On Lon­don open we shot up to near UKC on the 5M and then quick­ly reversed to test the LKC
      • This is the DPP/WPP area and I am inter­est­ed to see how PA will trade around these levels
    • We are look­ing to BD from these levels
    • HYPO 1 seems pos­si­ble although it still has some ways to go
      • About 40 ticks
      • So let’s see if there are signs of a pos­si­ble rever­sal at a high­er level
    • What is the main trend? 
      • It looks like we are bal­anc­ing on the HTFs since no dis­cern­able trend can be established. 
    • PA looked like it want­ed to reverse but ran into resis­tance and spread has widened to 38–45
    • We might be look­ing to make that overex­tend­ed drop into the val­ue area
    • T1 con­ser­v­a­tive win 4.2 ticks
    • Stalk­ing the 5M SR TT UT oppor­tu­ni­ty here at the val­ue area
    • Looks like we are reject­ing the val­ue area and I’m wait­ing for the next can­dle to open and see how that behaves and pos­si­bly enter
    • T2 con­ser­v­a­tive win 8.2 ticks
    • PA ral­lied a bit more and then ran into WPP 51.627 which is also the 5M 200MA and it might CAR
      • It did and buy­ers look weak now 
      • We might get anoth­er overex­tend­ed move into the val­ue area before we BO 
        • Which could give me anoth­er oppor­tu­ni­ty to get in
    • We returned back to the val­ue area around 50.90 lev­el and I am look­ing for con­fir­ma­tion on the 5M to take a SRTT DT play
      • Stalk­ing the 5M SRTT DT oppor­tu­ni­ty but it could very well be that we will actu­al­ly move low­er here
        • Crit­i­cal lev­els then would be the 50.80 and ulti­mate­ly 50.627 (Yesterday’s low)
    • We moved back up with­out enter­ing the val­ue area and are now at the 5M 200MA lev­el again just below the WPP 51.267
    • We moved high­er through WPP and DPP and are look­ing to move higher
    • We moved high­er to AS swing high where sell­ers came in around 51.40 lev­el and might move high­er to the 2nd AS swing high around 51.50 level
      • I might take a short there if the 5M confirms
    • Sell­ers came in quick at the UKC and am look­ing to see if we can break over a lit­tle bit before we swing down
    • This could be a strong move over the UKC
      • We went into the 50.60 and it looks like it has a lot of momen­tum and not much sell­ers are com­ing in
      • Next tar­get of inter­est is the 51.80 area if we move up higher
    • T3 con­ser­v­a­tive siz­ing loss 6.5 ticks
    • There was actu­al­ly an oppor­tu­ni­ty after I got stopped out but I hes­i­tat­ed to take it since I had just got­ten stopped out and since I’m feel­ing tired and not sharp I hes­i­tat­ed even more.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 5M SRTT UT
        • What is the main trend?
          • The mar­ket is bal­anc­ing but there is a short term DT
        • Where are we in the move?
          • We are in what looks like a bot­tom on the 30M
          • And we are in the 1.5 SD on the 30M
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • PA dropped to 51.05 lev­el and looks like to run into some buy­ers com­ing in
        • Entry: 51.091 on con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
    • SL
      • 51
    • TP
      • 51.227
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • 51.133
      • Win 4.2 ticks
      • The entry was too ear­ly I think because I expect­ed PA to jump up but it didn’t. Was think­ing to stay in the trade and be in a draw­down on the posi­tion and trade around it when we went down into the val­ue area but that’s not part of my plan
      • Glad I got out it dropped fur­ther and actu­al­ly entered the val­ue area
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 5M SRTT UT
        • What is the main trend?
          • Same as T1
        • Where are we in the move?
          • Same as T1
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • 5M showed a drop into val­ue area that got pushed back almost imme­di­ate­ly and I took a long posi­tion here
        • Entry: 51.091
    • SL
      • Into the val­ue area below prev. Wick
        • 50.918
    • TP
      • 51.437
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • If this goes my way I will look to add to my posi­tion after we clear 51.10
      • Instead I it all off the table when we hit LKC and if there’s a pull­back from here i’ll take anoth­er position
      • Cov­ered at 51.173
      • Win 8.2 ticks
      • I will wait and reassess the mar­ket before tak­ing anoth­er position
  • T3
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 5M SRF UT
        • What is the main trend?
          • Mar­ket balancing
        • Where are we in the move?
          • We just moved from val­ue area up to pre­vi­ous swing high were sell­ers came in before dur­ing AS
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • Bear­ish can­dle in overex­tend­ed zone so took a con­ser­v­a­tive short
        • Entry: 51.518
    • SL
      • A very tight stop at 51.58
      • Rea­son for this is that with a can­dle like that I expect a prompt rever­sal but this didn’t come and took my stop out
    • TP
      • 51.342
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Got tak­en out at 51.583
        • Loss 6.5 ticks
      • I felt like me not want­i­ng to give back more of my prof­its was more of a con­cern then actu­al­ly look­ing at the lev­els and put my stop correctly
        • As always my hind­sight is 20/20
      • This might still be an oppor­tu­ni­ty though and am look­ing to get back in

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • I was a lit­tle bit more patient with let­ting my trade work out
  • P/L for the day
Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticks
2019.01.15 10:57:06buy2wti51.09150.91851.2272019.01.15 11:02:4451.1334.20
2019.01.15 11:10:26buy2wti51.09150.87651.7682019.01.15 11:26:4951.1738.20
2019.01.15 13:26:27sell2wti51.518051.3422019.01.15 13:36:2851.583-6.50
---------5.90

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Week­ly goal: Get con­sis­tent only tak­ing SR plays 
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context? 
      • I imple­ment­ed the pre­vi­ous day highs and lows, com­bined with areas of val­ue and excess that I learned from Mer­ritt and it gave me a bet­ter feel­ing for mar­ket structure. 
        • Hence I des­ig­nat­ed areas around the 50.80 as sup­port area where buy­ers could be com­ing in and 51.80 as an area where sell­ers could be com­ing in 
      • Anoth­er point I imple­ment­ed is the HYPOs 
        • I came up with 3 hypos and described and trad­ed HYPO1 
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states? 
      • fair­ly calm dur­ing trade 1 and 2, trade 3 I wasn’t as calm because I had pock­et­ed some prof­its and didn’t want to give it all back so I put on a tight stop loss and got stopped out.
    • What did I do well? 
      • I did well to imple­ment things learned in the community
      • I did well to stalk my trades
      • I did well to only trade the SR set­up that I am focus­ing on get­ting con­sis­tent in 
    • What do I need to improve? 
      • There’s a pat­tern I saw AGAIN today that could have got­ten me into a big move but I missed it. I will work this into my play­book and be bet­ter pre­pared next time. I will work to keep improv­ing my playbook
      • After get­ting stopped out I should have got­ten back in since my cri­te­ria for tak­ing a trade was still valid 
    • What’s one thing you learned today? 
      • Under­stand bet­ter to put prob­a­bil­i­ties in my favor in all this randomness 
    • What’s one thing I need to do more often? 
      • Be patient and wait for the mar­ket to come to me. One good trade after one good trade 
    • What’s one thing I need to do less often? 
      • Not be swayed by pre­vi­ous prof­its as much and still take a set­up when you see it. 
    • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best) 
      • 3

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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