01152019 Trade Plan — market balancing

15 Jan 01152019 Trade Plan — market balancing

01152019 Trade Plan — mar­ket balancing

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon	Tue
-	1/11	1/12	1/13	1/14	1/15
Beers night before	0	8	8	0	1 fin­ger whiskey
Time bed yesterday	22:19	late	late	22:53	22:01
woke up	6:36	-	-	8:21	6:11
Hours sleep	8:17	6	6	9:28	8:10
Awake	1:46	-	-	1:15	1:54
REM	0:20	-	-	1:28	0:30
Light	5:17	-	-	5:47	4:50
Deep	0:54	-	-	0:58	0:56
Sleep well?	2	1	1	3	3
Mela­tonin	0	0	1x	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	0	2	2	2	1
Exer­cise yester(to)day	3	1	1	3	3
Grat­i­tude	5	5	5	5	5
Joy	5	5	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	1	1	1
Focus	3	1	1	3	2
Cof­fees today	1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop) in the morning	1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop)	no	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon	1 Turk­ish cof­fee half scoop in morning
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	no	no	yes, 11/4	no
Water L	3	2	2	3	4
Vit­a­mins	yes	no	no	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	10	10	10	0	0

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • I should stop tak­ing any pills to help me sleep. I feel that it just makes me feel ‘edgy’ the next day or two days after. This is not the right state to be in to be focused.
• How do you feel?
  • I feel tired and grog­gy even though I slept a lit­tle over 8 hours. I did not get enough deep sleep I think. Plus the effects of the sleep­ing aid I took two days ago are caus­ing me to not feel sharp and good over­all today. need a larg­er sam­ple size to make bet­ter con­clu­sions on my sleep so will keep track­ing my sleep cycles.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
  • Yes­ter­day dur­ing the AS we bounced off the 51.10 (which was also WPP 51.267 area) but then con­tin­ued low­er and test­ed the DS1 51.054 area
  • Lon­don opened high­er below the WPP 51.267 lev­el and imme­di­ate­ly showed weak­ness and we dropped hard below the 51.10 into the 50.80s before get­ting pushed back up hard and had a swing high to 51.40 lev­el before swing­ing back low to 50.70 level
    • I believe the mar­ket was not trend­ing dur­ing all this but we were try­ing to find balance
  • We then made a swing high at pre­vi­ous swing high 51.40 and swing low at WPP 51.267 as support
    • And then made a messy run high to 52 lev­el before we even­tu­al­ly dropped back down to 50.80 level

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Com­ing out today
• EIA report
  • Com­ing out tomorrow

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

-	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Week	Mon
-	1/7	1/8	1/9	1/10	1/11	1/7 — 1/11	1/14
High	49.977	50.139	52.783	53.014	53.556	53.556	52.349
Low	48.309	48.489	49.953	51.643	51.422	48.309	50.627
Close	48.945	50.001	52.401	52.641	51.937	51.937	51.003
Pip move	166.8	165	283	137.1	213.4	524.7	172.2
PP	49.077	49.543	51.712	52.433	52.305	51.267	51.326
dis­tance	76.8	105.4	175.9	79	88.3	295.8	69.9
R1	49.845	50.597	53.471	53.223	53.188	54.225	52.025
dis­tance	166.8	165	283	137.1	213.4	524.7	172.2
R2	50.745	51.193	54.542	53.804	54.439	56.514	53.048
dis­tance	-90	-59.6	-107.1	-58.1	-125.1	-228.9	-102.3
S1	48.177	48.947	50.641	51.852	51.054	48.978	50.303
dis­tance	-166.8	-165	-283	-137.1	-213.4	-524.7	-172.2
S2	47.409	47.893	48.882	51.062	50.171	46.02	49.604
TV	69,608	61,229	63,539	66,078	65,509	325,963	69,035
50MA	53.701	53.349	53.062	52.786	52.527	64.078	52.276
200MA	64.979	64.904	64.852	64.797	64.739	-	64.676
ATR	2.4609	2.3781	2.3102	2.2566	2.2786	4.891	2.2847

• What can we tell from the PP levels?
  • PP lev­els con­tract­ed and thus we could be set­ting up for a big­ger move today
• ATR
  • ATR has been around the same lev­els as last week
• Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
  • Val­ue
    • 50.80 lev­el is were most buy­ers seem to come in
  • Excess
    • 51.80 lev­el is were most sell­ers seem to come in
• Where were the overnight highs and lows?
  • High 52.349
  • Low 50.627
• What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing or balancing?
  • I believe the mar­ket is bal­anc­ing and decid­ing to poten­tial­ly go back up again
• What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
  • The 51.80 lev­el would be a good short oppor­tu­ni­ty since we’d be around the 30M 200MA lev­el, DR1 52.025 and UKC as well
  • On the long side the 50.80 area would be good since there we have the LKC 
• How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?

Cur­rent	51.4
Price
Dai­ly	Price	Dis­tance
50MA	52.276	88
200MA	64.676	1,328
Yes­ter­day’s high	52.349	95
Yes­ter­day’s low	50.627	-77

S/R	kind	lev­el	Dis­tance	Rate it 1–10	Why?
R6	Week­ly	53.9	250	8	above HTF swing high
R5	DR2	53.048	164.8	10	prev. HTF swing high
R4	Yes. High	52.349	94.9	8	yes­ter­day’s high
R3	Dai­ly	52.3	90	9	D 50MA area
R2	DR1	52.025	62.5	10	D 50MA area
R1	Excess	51.8	40	10	yes­ter­day’s high
CURRENT	-	51.4	-	-	-
S1	DPP	51.326	-7.4	6	very near to cur­rent PA
S2	WPP	51.267	-13.3	6	very near to cur­rent PA
S3	Val­ue area	50.8	-60	10	yes­ter­day’s low
S4	Yes. Low	50.627	-77.3	8	yes­ter­day’s low
S5	DS1	50.303	-109.7	8	4H 50MA area
S6	Dai­ly	49.8	-160	8	4H 50MA area

• What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
  • After we bounced off of the 50.80 lev­el yes­ter­day we opened the AS with con­tin­u­ing this trend up and then start­ed rolling over into DPP 51.326 and WPP 51.267

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1
  • We BD from DPP/WPP and start test­ing yesterday’s low which is also the val­ue area and 30M LKC around 50.80 area
    • We could overex­tend into this area and come into buy­ers and have a 30M DT SR TT oppor­tu­ni­ty to even­tu­al­ly break the 30M DT that is part of the HTF pullback
    • Prof­it target
      • 52 area
• Hypo 2
  • We ral­ly into excess ter­ri­to­ry and overex­tend on the LTF into this area which is also the 30M 200MA and UKC area around 51.80
    • This could have the poten­tial for a 30M DT SR TC oppor­tu­ni­ty by buy­ers com­ing into this area and push­ing PA back down
    • Prof­it target
      • This could be a huge move down to poten­tial­ly 49.80 (even­tu­al­ly)
      • Dur­ing Lon­don I’d set my prof­it tar­get to 50.50
• Hypo 3
  • We ral­ly into excess ter­ri­to­ry and break it to even­tu­al­ly make a failed swing high around 52.30 level
    • Overex­tend into this area and roll over to even­tu­al­ly make a move down blast­ing through 50.30 prob­a­bly the next day
    • Prof­it target 
      • 51 lev­el

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Get con­sis­tent only tak­ing SR plays

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • On Lon­don open we shot up to near UKC on the 5M and then quick­ly reversed to test the LKC
    • This is the DPP/WPP area and I am inter­est­ed to see how PA will trade around these levels
  • We are look­ing to BD from these levels
  • HYPO 1 seems pos­si­ble although it still has some ways to go
    • About 40 ticks
    • So let’s see if there are signs of a pos­si­ble rever­sal at a high­er level
  • What is the main trend? 
    • It looks like we are bal­anc­ing on the HTFs since no dis­cern­able trend can be established. 
  • PA looked like it want­ed to reverse but ran into resis­tance and spread has widened to 38–45
  • We might be look­ing to make that overex­tend­ed drop into the val­ue area
  • T1 con­ser­v­a­tive win 4.2 ticks
  • Stalk­ing the 5M SR TT UT oppor­tu­ni­ty here at the val­ue area
  • Looks like we are reject­ing the val­ue area and I’m wait­ing for the next can­dle to open and see how that behaves and pos­si­bly enter
  • T2 con­ser­v­a­tive win 8.2 ticks
  • PA ral­lied a bit more and then ran into WPP 51.627 which is also the 5M 200MA and it might CAR
    • It did and buy­ers look weak now 
    • We might get anoth­er overex­tend­ed move into the val­ue area before we BO 
      • Which could give me anoth­er oppor­tu­ni­ty to get in
  • We returned back to the val­ue area around 50.90 lev­el and I am look­ing for con­fir­ma­tion on the 5M to take a SRTT DT play
    • Stalk­ing the 5M SRTT DT oppor­tu­ni­ty but it could very well be that we will actu­al­ly move low­er here
      • Crit­i­cal lev­els then would be the 50.80 and ulti­mate­ly 50.627 (Yesterday’s low)
  • We moved back up with­out enter­ing the val­ue area and are now at the 5M 200MA lev­el again just below the WPP 51.267
  • We moved high­er through WPP and DPP and are look­ing to move higher
  • We moved high­er to AS swing high where sell­ers came in around 51.40 lev­el and might move high­er to the 2nd AS swing high around 51.50 level
    • I might take a short there if the 5M confirms
  • Sell­ers came in quick at the UKC and am look­ing to see if we can break over a lit­tle bit before we swing down
  • This could be a strong move over the UKC
    • We went into the 50.60 and it looks like it has a lot of momen­tum and not much sell­ers are com­ing in
    • Next tar­get of inter­est is the 51.80 area if we move up higher
  • T3 con­ser­v­a­tive siz­ing loss 6.5 ticks
  • There was actu­al­ly an oppor­tu­ni­ty after I got stopped out but I hes­i­tat­ed to take it since I had just got­ten stopped out and since I’m feel­ing tired and not sharp I hes­i­tat­ed even more.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • 5M SRTT UT
      • What is the main trend?
        • The mar­ket is bal­anc­ing but there is a short term DT
      • Where are we in the move?
        • We are in what looks like a bot­tom on the 30M
        • And we are in the 1.5 SD on the 30M
      • Is 5M confirming?
        • PA dropped to 51.05 lev­el and looks like to run into some buy­ers com­ing in
      • Entry: 51.091 on con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
  • SL
    • 51
  • TP
    • 51.227
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • 51.133
    • Win 4.2 ticks
    • The entry was too ear­ly I think because I expect­ed PA to jump up but it didn’t. Was think­ing to stay in the trade and be in a draw­down on the posi­tion and trade around it when we went down into the val­ue area but that’s not part of my plan
    • Glad I got out it dropped fur­ther and actu­al­ly entered the val­ue area

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • 5M SRTT UT
      • What is the main trend?
        • Same as T1
      • Where are we in the move?
        • Same as T1
      • Is 5M confirming?
        • 5M showed a drop into val­ue area that got pushed back almost imme­di­ate­ly and I took a long posi­tion here
      • Entry: 51.091
  • SL
    • Into the val­ue area below prev. Wick
      • 50.918
  • TP
    • 51.437
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • If this goes my way I will look to add to my posi­tion after we clear 51.10
    • Instead I it all off the table when we hit LKC and if there’s a pull­back from here i’ll take anoth­er position
    • Cov­ered at 51.173
    • Win 8.2 ticks
    • I will wait and reassess the mar­ket before tak­ing anoth­er position

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • 5M SRF UT
      • What is the main trend?
        • Mar­ket balancing
      • Where are we in the move?
        • We just moved from val­ue area up to pre­vi­ous swing high were sell­ers came in before dur­ing AS
      • Is 5M confirming?
        • Bear­ish can­dle in overex­tend­ed zone so took a con­ser­v­a­tive short
      • Entry: 51.518
  • SL
    • A very tight stop at 51.58
    • Rea­son for this is that with a can­dle like that I expect a prompt rever­sal but this didn’t come and took my stop out
  • TP
    • 51.342
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Got tak­en out at 51.583
      • Loss 6.5 ticks
    • I felt like me not want­i­ng to give back more of my prof­its was more of a con­cern then actu­al­ly look­ing at the lev­els and put my stop correctly
      • As always my hind­sight is 20/20
    • This might still be an oppor­tu­ni­ty though and am look­ing to get back in

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
  • I was a lit­tle bit more patient with let­ting my trade work out
• P/L for the day

Open Time	Type	Size	Item	Price	S / L	T / P	Close Time	Price	P/L ticks
2019.01.15 10:57:06	buy	2	wti	51.091	50.918	51.227	2019.01.15 11:02:44	51.133	4.20
2019.01.15 11:10:26	buy	2	wti	51.091	50.876	51.768	2019.01.15 11:26:49	51.173	8.20
2019.01.15 13:26:27	sell	2	wti	51.518	0	51.342	2019.01.15 13:36:28	51.583	-6.50
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5.90

Dai­ly Report Card

• Week­ly goal: Get con­sis­tent only tak­ing SR plays 
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context? 
    • I imple­ment­ed the pre­vi­ous day highs and lows, com­bined with areas of val­ue and excess that I learned from Mer­ritt and it gave me a bet­ter feel­ing for mar­ket structure. 
      • Hence I des­ig­nat­ed areas around the 50.80 as sup­port area where buy­ers could be com­ing in and 51.80 as an area where sell­ers could be com­ing in 
    • Anoth­er point I imple­ment­ed is the HYPOs 
      • I came up with 3 hypos and described and trad­ed HYPO1 
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states? 
    • fair­ly calm dur­ing trade 1 and 2, trade 3 I wasn’t as calm because I had pock­et­ed some prof­its and didn’t want to give it all back so I put on a tight stop loss and got stopped out.
  • What did I do well? 
    • I did well to imple­ment things learned in the community
    • I did well to stalk my trades
    • I did well to only trade the SR set­up that I am focus­ing on get­ting con­sis­tent in 
  • What do I need to improve? 
    • There’s a pat­tern I saw AGAIN today that could have got­ten me into a big move but I missed it. I will work this into my play­book and be bet­ter pre­pared next time. I will work to keep improv­ing my playbook
    • After get­ting stopped out I should have got­ten back in since my cri­te­ria for tak­ing a trade was still valid 
  • What’s one thing you learned today? 
    • Under­stand bet­ter to put prob­a­bil­i­ties in my favor in all this randomness 
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often? 
    • Be patient and wait for the mar­ket to come to me. One good trade after one good trade 
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often? 
    • Not be swayed by pre­vi­ous prof­its as much and still take a set­up when you see it. 
  • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best) 
    • 3

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.