
15 Jan 01152019 Trade Plan — market balancing
01152019 Trade Plan — market balancing
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue |
- | 1/11 | 1/12 | 1/13 | 1/14 | 1/15 |
Beers night before | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 finger whiskey |
Time bed yesterday | 22:19 | late | late | 22:53 | 22:01 |
woke up | 6:36 | - | - | 8:21 | 6:11 |
Hours sleep | 8:17 | 6 | 6 | 9:28 | 8:10 |
Awake | 1:46 | - | - | 1:15 | 1:54 |
REM | 0:20 | - | - | 1:28 | 0:30 |
Light | 5:17 | - | - | 5:47 | 4:50 |
Deep | 0:54 | - | - | 0:58 | 0:56 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 1x | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Coffees today | 1 turkish coffee (1 scoop) in the morning | 1 turkish coffee (1 scoop) | no | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon | 1 Turkish coffee half scoop in morning |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | no | yes, 11/4 | no |
Water L | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Vitamins | yes | no | no | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I should stop taking any pills to help me sleep. I feel that it just makes me feel ‘edgy’ the next day or two days after. This is not the right state to be in to be focused.
- How do you feel?
- I feel tired and groggy even though I slept a little over 8 hours. I did not get enough deep sleep I think. Plus the effects of the sleeping aid I took two days ago are causing me to not feel sharp and good overall today. need a larger sample size to make better conclusions on my sleep so will keep tracking my sleep cycles.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 2
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- Yesterday during the AS we bounced off the 51.10 (which was also WPP 51.267 area) but then continued lower and tested the DS1 51.054 area
- London opened higher below the WPP 51.267 level and immediately showed weakness and we dropped hard below the 51.10 into the 50.80s before getting pushed back up hard and had a swing high to 51.40 level before swinging back low to 50.70 level
- I believe the market was not trending during all this but we were trying to find balance
- We then made a swing high at previous swing high 51.40 and swing low at WPP 51.267 as support
- And then made a messy run high to 52 level before we eventually dropped back down to 50.80 level
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Coming out today
- EIA report
- Coming out tomorrow
Intraday Technical Analysis
- | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Week | Mon |
- | 1/7 | 1/8 | 1/9 | 1/10 | 1/11 | 1/7 — 1/11 | 1/14 |
High | 49.977 | 50.139 | 52.783 | 53.014 | 53.556 | 53.556 | 52.349 |
Low | 48.309 | 48.489 | 49.953 | 51.643 | 51.422 | 48.309 | 50.627 |
Close | 48.945 | 50.001 | 52.401 | 52.641 | 51.937 | 51.937 | 51.003 |
Pip move | 166.8 | 165 | 283 | 137.1 | 213.4 | 524.7 | 172.2 |
PP | 49.077 | 49.543 | 51.712 | 52.433 | 52.305 | 51.267 | 51.326 |
distance | 76.8 | 105.4 | 175.9 | 79 | 88.3 | 295.8 | 69.9 |
R1 | 49.845 | 50.597 | 53.471 | 53.223 | 53.188 | 54.225 | 52.025 |
distance | 166.8 | 165 | 283 | 137.1 | 213.4 | 524.7 | 172.2 |
R2 | 50.745 | 51.193 | 54.542 | 53.804 | 54.439 | 56.514 | 53.048 |
distance | -90 | -59.6 | -107.1 | -58.1 | -125.1 | -228.9 | -102.3 |
S1 | 48.177 | 48.947 | 50.641 | 51.852 | 51.054 | 48.978 | 50.303 |
distance | -166.8 | -165 | -283 | -137.1 | -213.4 | -524.7 | -172.2 |
S2 | 47.409 | 47.893 | 48.882 | 51.062 | 50.171 | 46.02 | 49.604 |
TV | 69,608 | 61,229 | 63,539 | 66,078 | 65,509 | 325,963 | 69,035 |
50MA | 53.701 | 53.349 | 53.062 | 52.786 | 52.527 | 64.078 | 52.276 |
200MA | 64.979 | 64.904 | 64.852 | 64.797 | 64.739 | - | 64.676 |
ATR | 2.4609 | 2.3781 | 2.3102 | 2.2566 | 2.2786 | 4.891 | 2.2847 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- PP levels contracted and thus we could be setting up for a bigger move today
- ATR
- ATR has been around the same levels as last week
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Value
- 50.80 level is were most buyers seem to come in
- Excess
- 51.80 level is were most sellers seem to come in
- Value
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 52.349
- Low 50.627
- What is the current market condition? Are we trending or balancing?
- I believe the market is balancing and deciding to potentially go back up again
- What trade locations among this structure will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- The 51.80 level would be a good short opportunity since we’d be around the 30M 200MA level, DR1 52.025 and UKC as well
- On the long side the 50.80 area would be good since there we have the LKC
- How far away are we from technical levels?
Current | 51.4 | |
Price | ||
Daily | Price | Distance |
50MA | 52.276 | 88 |
200MA | 64.676 | 1,328 |
Yesterday’s high | 52.349 | 95 |
Yesterday’s low | 50.627 | -77 |
S/R | kind | level | Distance | Rate it 1–10 | Why? |
R6 | Weekly | 53.9 | 250 | 8 | above HTF swing high |
R5 | DR2 | 53.048 | 164.8 | 10 | prev. HTF swing high |
R4 | Yes. High | 52.349 | 94.9 | 8 | yesterday’s high |
R3 | Daily | 52.3 | 90 | 9 | D 50MA area |
R2 | DR1 | 52.025 | 62.5 | 10 | D 50MA area |
R1 | Excess | 51.8 | 40 | 10 | yesterday’s high |
CURRENT | - | 51.4 | - | - | - |
S1 | DPP | 51.326 | -7.4 | 6 | very near to current PA |
S2 | WPP | 51.267 | -13.3 | 6 | very near to current PA |
S3 | Value area | 50.8 | -60 | 10 | yesterday’s low |
S4 | Yes. Low | 50.627 | -77.3 | 8 | yesterday’s low |
S5 | DS1 | 50.303 | -109.7 | 8 | 4H 50MA area |
S6 | Daily | 49.8 | -160 | 8 | 4H 50MA area |
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- After we bounced off of the 50.80 level yesterday we opened the AS with continuing this trend up and then started rolling over into DPP 51.326 and WPP 51.267
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1
- We BD from DPP/WPP and start testing yesterday’s low which is also the value area and 30M LKC around 50.80 area
- We could overextend into this area and come into buyers and have a 30M DT SR TT opportunity to eventually break the 30M DT that is part of the HTF pullback
- Profit target
- 52 area
- We BD from DPP/WPP and start testing yesterday’s low which is also the value area and 30M LKC around 50.80 area
- Hypo 2
- We rally into excess territory and overextend on the LTF into this area which is also the 30M 200MA and UKC area around 51.80
- This could have the potential for a 30M DT SR TC opportunity by buyers coming into this area and pushing PA back down
- Profit target
- This could be a huge move down to potentially 49.80 (eventually)
- During London I’d set my profit target to 50.50
- We rally into excess territory and overextend on the LTF into this area which is also the 30M 200MA and UKC area around 51.80
- Hypo 3
- We rally into excess territory and break it to eventually make a failed swing high around 52.30 level
- Overextend into this area and roll over to eventually make a move down blasting through 50.30 probably the next day
- Profit target
- 51 level
- We rally into excess territory and break it to eventually make a failed swing high around 52.30 level
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Get consistent only taking SR plays
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- On London open we shot up to near UKC on the 5M and then quickly reversed to test the LKC
- This is the DPP/WPP area and I am interested to see how PA will trade around these levels
- We are looking to BD from these levels
- HYPO 1 seems possible although it still has some ways to go
- About 40 ticks
- So let’s see if there are signs of a possible reversal at a higher level
- What is the main trend?
- It looks like we are balancing on the HTFs since no discernable trend can be established.
- PA looked like it wanted to reverse but ran into resistance and spread has widened to 38–45
- We might be looking to make that overextended drop into the value area
- T1 conservative win 4.2 ticks
- Stalking the 5M SR TT UT opportunity here at the value area
- Looks like we are rejecting the value area and I’m waiting for the next candle to open and see how that behaves and possibly enter
- T2 conservative win 8.2 ticks
- PA rallied a bit more and then ran into WPP 51.627 which is also the 5M 200MA and it might CAR
- It did and buyers look weak now
- We might get another overextended move into the value area before we BO
- Which could give me another opportunity to get in
- We returned back to the value area around 50.90 level and I am looking for confirmation on the 5M to take a SRTT DT play
- Stalking the 5M SRTT DT opportunity but it could very well be that we will actually move lower here
- Critical levels then would be the 50.80 and ultimately 50.627 (Yesterday’s low)
- Stalking the 5M SRTT DT opportunity but it could very well be that we will actually move lower here
- We moved back up without entering the value area and are now at the 5M 200MA level again just below the WPP 51.267
- We moved higher through WPP and DPP and are looking to move higher
- We moved higher to AS swing high where sellers came in around 51.40 level and might move higher to the 2nd AS swing high around 51.50 level
- I might take a short there if the 5M confirms
- Sellers came in quick at the UKC and am looking to see if we can break over a little bit before we swing down
- This could be a strong move over the UKC
- We went into the 50.60 and it looks like it has a lot of momentum and not much sellers are coming in
- Next target of interest is the 51.80 area if we move up higher
- T3 conservative sizing loss 6.5 ticks
- There was actually an opportunity after I got stopped out but I hesitated to take it since I had just gotten stopped out and since I’m feeling tired and not sharp I hesitated even more.
- On London open we shot up to near UKC on the 5M and then quickly reversed to test the LKC
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- 5M SRTT UT
- What is the main trend?
- The market is balancing but there is a short term DT
- Where are we in the move?
- We are in what looks like a bottom on the 30M
- And we are in the 1.5 SD on the 30M
- Is 5M confirming?
- PA dropped to 51.05 level and looks like to run into some buyers coming in
- Entry: 51.091 on conservative sizing
- What is the main trend?
- 5M SRTT UT
- SL
- 51
- TP
- 51.227
- Trade Management
- 51.133
- Win 4.2 ticks
- The entry was too early I think because I expected PA to jump up but it didn’t. Was thinking to stay in the trade and be in a drawdown on the position and trade around it when we went down into the value area but that’s not part of my plan
- Glad I got out it dropped further and actually entered the value area
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- 5M SRTT UT
- What is the main trend?
- Same as T1
- Where are we in the move?
- Same as T1
- Is 5M confirming?
- 5M showed a drop into value area that got pushed back almost immediately and I took a long position here
- Entry: 51.091
- What is the main trend?
- 5M SRTT UT
- SL
- Into the value area below prev. Wick
- 50.918
- Into the value area below prev. Wick
- TP
- 51.437
- Trade Management
- If this goes my way I will look to add to my position after we clear 51.10
- Instead I it all off the table when we hit LKC and if there’s a pullback from here i’ll take another position
- Covered at 51.173
- Win 8.2 ticks
- I will wait and reassess the market before taking another position
- Why? What do I see?
- T3
- Why? What do I see?
- 5M SRF UT
- What is the main trend?
- Market balancing
- Where are we in the move?
- We just moved from value area up to previous swing high were sellers came in before during AS
- Is 5M confirming?
- Bearish candle in overextended zone so took a conservative short
- Entry: 51.518
- What is the main trend?
- 5M SRF UT
- SL
- A very tight stop at 51.58
- Reason for this is that with a candle like that I expect a prompt reversal but this didn’t come and took my stop out
- TP
- 51.342
- Trade Management
- Got taken out at 51.583
- Loss 6.5 ticks
- I felt like me not wanting to give back more of my profits was more of a concern then actually looking at the levels and put my stop correctly
- As always my hindsight is 20/20
- This might still be an opportunity though and am looking to get back in
- Got taken out at 51.583
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I was a little bit more patient with letting my trade work out
- P/L for the day
Open Time | Type | Size | Item | Price | S / L | T / P | Close Time | Price | P/L ticks |
2019.01.15 10:57:06 | buy | 2 | wti | 51.091 | 50.918 | 51.227 | 2019.01.15 11:02:44 | 51.133 | 4.20 |
2019.01.15 11:10:26 | buy | 2 | wti | 51.091 | 50.876 | 51.768 | 2019.01.15 11:26:49 | 51.173 | 8.20 |
2019.01.15 13:26:27 | sell | 2 | wti | 51.518 | 0 | 51.342 | 2019.01.15 13:36:28 | 51.583 | -6.50 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5.90 |
Daily Report Card
- Weekly goal: Get consistent only taking SR plays
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- I implemented the previous day highs and lows, combined with areas of value and excess that I learned from Merritt and it gave me a better feeling for market structure.
- Hence I designated areas around the 50.80 as support area where buyers could be coming in and 51.80 as an area where sellers could be coming in
- Another point I implemented is the HYPOs
- I came up with 3 hypos and described and traded HYPO1
- I implemented the previous day highs and lows, combined with areas of value and excess that I learned from Merritt and it gave me a better feeling for market structure.
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- fairly calm during trade 1 and 2, trade 3 I wasn’t as calm because I had pocketed some profits and didn’t want to give it all back so I put on a tight stop loss and got stopped out.
- What did I do well?
- I did well to implement things learned in the community
- I did well to stalk my trades
- I did well to only trade the SR setup that I am focusing on getting consistent in
- What do I need to improve?
- There’s a pattern I saw AGAIN today that could have gotten me into a big move but I missed it. I will work this into my playbook and be better prepared next time. I will work to keep improving my playbook
- After getting stopped out I should have gotten back in since my criteria for taking a trade was still valid
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- Understand better to put probabilities in my favor in all this randomness
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Be patient and wait for the market to come to me. One good trade after one good trade
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Not be swayed by previous profits as much and still take a setup when you see it.
- Grade yourself 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
- 3
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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