
16 Jan 01162019 Trade Plan — Sell off at 4H failed swing high
01162019 Trade Plan — Sell off at 4H failed swing high
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed |
- | 1/12 | 1/13 | 1/14 | 1/15 | 1/16 |
Beers night before | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 finger whiskey | 0 |
Time bed yesterday | late | late | 22:53 | 22:01 | 22:20 |
woke up | - | - | 8:21 | 6:11 | 7:14 |
Hours sleep | 6 | 6 | 9:28 | 8:10 | 8:54 |
Awake | - | - | 1:15 | 1:54 | - |
REM | - | - | 1:28 | 0:30 | - |
Light | - | - | 5:47 | 4:50 | - |
Deep | - | - | 0:58 | 0:56 | - |
Sleep well? | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Melatonin | 0 | 1x | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1 turkish coffee (1 scoop) | no | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon | 1 Turkish coffee half scoop in morning | 1 Turkish coffee half scoop in morning |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | yes, 11/4 | no | yes |
Water L | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Vitamins | no | no | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I am getting a better idea how my weekends affect my body and therefore my concentration. Points to improve are sleeping routine and limit social interactions.
- Last night I slept later but I also woke up later so I could get some more sleep in. Sadly my Fitbit didn’t track my sleep because I wasn’t wearing it right apparently. I’ll be more mindful of that.
- How do you feel?
- I feel better than yesterday. However still not a 100%. Tomorrow I’ll be even better.
- I can sense that I am not in a good state because I am too easily bothered by the people around me. I have negative thoughts like aggression and resentment towards them. This is not good but I understand that my psychical state is intertwined with my mental state and I will keep monitoring this.
- Another thing is that I keep getting distracted by a person in my life that is probably not worth being in my life as it is and I should stop wasting time thinking about this.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 2
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- Market was balancing and there was no discernable main trend
- We started the AS by moving higher off the bounce we had the day before 50.80, 50.90 area which was also the value area for the day
- We moved higher and moved towards the middle of the previous days range which was the DPP/WPP area for the day as well
- We then made a pullback and started ranging in the 51.20 to .50 range
- We moved higher and moved towards the middle of the previous days range which was the DPP/WPP area for the day as well
- London opened bringing us back to the value area for buyers to come in and we rejected the 50.80/90 area and we saw an imbalance when prices moved up
- A pullback to mid point of the prev. Day again that showed strength on the buyers side and the imbalance continued
- Later on during NY we bounced off the same area and on stronger momentum tested the excess area and after a pullback on strong momentum still we broke through somewhat effortlessly and the imbalance continued a little longer in what looks like overextended territory being so high over the excess area would mean the sellers more incentivized to come in
- We ended up rejecting the 52.40 some more in the rest of the session
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Showed a draw of ‑0.560M which is fairly little
- EIA report
- Forecast is a draw of ‑1.323M
Intraday Technical Analysis
- | Thu | Fri | Week | Mon | Tue |
- | 1/10 | 1/11 | 1/7 — 1/11 | 1/14 | 1/15 |
High | 53.014 | 53.556 | 53.556 | 52.349 | 52.53 |
Low | 51.643 | 51.422 | 48.309 | 50.627 | 50.887 |
Close | 52.641 | 51.937 | 51.937 | 51.003 | 52.235 |
Pip move | 137.1 | 213.4 | 524.7 | 172.2 | 164.3 |
PP | 52.433 | 52.305 | 51.267 | 51.326 | 51.884 |
distance | 79 | 88.3 | 295.8 | 69.9 | 99.7 |
R1 | 53.223 | 53.188 | 54.225 | 52.025 | 52.881 |
distance | 137.1 | 213.4 | 524.7 | 172.2 | 164.3 |
R2 | 53.804 | 54.439 | 56.514 | 53.048 | 53.527 |
distance | -58.1 | -125.1 | -228.9 | -102.3 | -64.6 |
S1 | 51.852 | 51.054 | 48.978 | 50.303 | 51.238 |
distance | -137.1 | -213.4 | -524.7 | -172.2 | -164.3 |
S2 | 51.062 | 50.171 | 46.02 | 49.604 | 50.241 |
TV | 66,078 | 65,509 | 325,963 | 69,035 | 56,496 |
50MA | 52.786 | 52.527 | 64.078 | 52.276 | 52.062 |
200MA | 64.797 | 64.739 | - | 64.676 | 64.627 |
ATR | 2.2566 | 2.2786 | 4.891 | 2.2847 | 2.2508 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- DR1 has expanded a little bit but the rest contracted
- ATR
- Still around the same level
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 52.53
- Low 50.887
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Value I would say is around the 51.15 to .35 area
- Excess is around the 52.20 to .40 area a bit more congested than value area so we might be seeing more sellers coming in and bringing the market down or area of more smart players coming in
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration?
- There was a shift in value migration namely that the value area has shifted higher about 30 ticks, same for the excess area
- What is the current market condition? Are we trending or balancing?
- I believe that we are still balancing on the main trend but if the excess area holds as support we could see the continuation of the HTF uptrend
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- Areas I would like to get involved in are
- A shot over the excess level into overextended areas and failed swing high on the HTF around the DR1 52.881 level would be one good place to go short
- Overextended move into 4H 50MA which is right below the value area and make a swing high
- Areas I would like to get involved in are
- How far away are we from technical levels?
Current | 52.4 | |
Price | ||
Daily | Price | Distance |
50MA | 52.062 | -34 |
200MA | 64.627 | 1,223 |
Yesterday’s high | 52.53 | 13 |
Yesterday’s low | 50.887 | -151 |
S/R | kind | level | Distance | Rate it 1–10 | Why? |
R6 | WR1 | 54.225 | 182.5 | 8 | prev. HTF swing high |
R5 | Weekly | 53.9 | 150 | 10 | prev. HTF swing high |
R4 | DR2 | 53.527 | 112.7 | 10 | prev. HTF swing high |
R3 | DR1 | 52.881 | 48.1 | 8 | prev. HTF swing high |
R2 | Yes. High | 52.53 | 13 | 10 | Yes. high |
R1 | Excess | 52.4 | 0 | 10 | excess area |
CURRENT | - | 52.4 | - | - | - |
S1 | Daily | 52.3 | -10 | 9 | Daily level mid excess area |
S2 | DPP | 51.884 | -51.6 | 6 | prev. swing level |
S3 | Value area | 51.35 | -105 | 10 | yes. low, WPP/DS1 area |
S4 | Yes. Low | 50.887 | -151.3 | 9 | yesterday’s low |
S5 | DS2 | 50.241 | -215.9 | 6 | below 4h 50MA |
S6 | Daily | 49.8 | -260 | 6 | 4H 50MA area |
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- The AS moved down to find support around 52 level and has since moved back into the excess area and is now testing the top of the area around 52.40
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1
- We overextend over the excess area to come into more sellers potentially around the DR1 level
- This would be a good place to short after looking for confirmation on the tape
- Profit target would be 51.40 area but could create more momentum and blast through
- We overextend over the excess area to come into more sellers potentially around the DR1 level
- Hypo 2
- We BD from excess area into sellers around the 52 area and overextend into 51.80s before reversing and continuing the imbalance of the main trend up
- Profit target would be excess area around 52.30 area
- We could then potentially drop back down to break towards value area
- Profit target would be excess area around 52.30 area
- We BD from excess area into sellers around the 52 area and overextend into 51.80s before reversing and continuing the imbalance of the main trend up
- Hypo 3
- After breaking down to 52 area we come back up into excess and BO from here to new HTF highs
- Profit target would be 53.90 a weekly area
- After breaking down to 52 area we come back up into excess and BO from here to new HTF highs
- Points to possible get involved in are
- Short above 52.50 area
- Long or short around 52 area
- Long around 51.30 area
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Get consistent only taking SR plays
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- London opened trading down and I feel that HYPO1 could be playing out but that I missed my point of entry since it looks like that might have happened during AS
- However we have not cleared this area yet so I am still looking to start stalking above the 52.40 area
- I was thinking to go short here but the 5M is not showing my setup so I won’t.
- It looks like we are still stuck around this excess area and we haven’t been able to break to new highs yet. Smart money is definitely up to something here let’s wait and see what they wanna do.
- 5M is showing UT and widening KC which could mean a reversal might be upon us
- 52.60 is pushing back and there are still potentially more sellers at this level. However this looks like there might not be enough of them
- If I would take a trade here that would be a SRF and that has the least R/R so why risk that? I better wait for a possible confirmation of a SRTT which might not come of course.
- And we made a sharp move over into 52.60
- This looks like it might be BO here. PA was moving in smaller swings up into the 52.50 level and now we went over it.
- Could also be a fake out
- Or perhaps we had the fake out before during the AS at 08:20
- Could also be a fake out
- We made the first bearish candle at the 52.70 level but I am waiting for the 2nd confirmation before I get in short here
- We dropped back to UKC and I was thinking to go long here but that’s not part of my setup (yet)
- A lot of sellers coming in here but it could just be to buy up more for the smart guys
- We are at a HTF level so best to be extra cautious
- We dropped back down to the 52.50 area and might CAS here and might be a good opportunity to go long here which I won’t since that’s not part of my plan
- Let’s pretend I did
- Entry 52.57
- SL 52.50
- TP 52.70
- Hypothetical stop got taken out
- Let’s pretend I did
- So HYPO1 does seem to be playing out. We shot up over the UKC close to DR1 52.881 (we got to .77) and we then got sellers in
- I didn’t trade this opportunity because KC and VWAP were widening and then PA moved higher over the UKC which then I am a bit reluctant to take a position and was looking for confirmation. And then came a big drop back into the KC and since I was thinking that this could have just been a 30M SRF move I thought my R/R was not great at all to get in short at this level
- We then dropped another 10–15 ticks but might be looking to continue
- I didn’t trade this opportunity because KC and VWAP were widening and then PA moved higher over the UKC which then I am a bit reluctant to take a position and was looking for confirmation. And then came a big drop back into the KC and since I was thinking that this could have just been a 30M SRF move I thought my R/R was not great at all to get in short at this level
- If 52.30 holds as value area now I could possibly have an opportunity going in long here
- Buyers coming in around 52.40
- I’m stalking a possible opportunity at 52.25 which is also the 5M 200MA
- This would be a 30M SRTC opportunity
- T1 scratched 1.1 tick profit conservative sizing
- It looks like we might be BD from 52.30 area and best would be to wait for a pullback up to this level to take a short
- After such a big sell off I feel like being extra careful there
- We saw a long lower wicked doji candle and I thought about going long there but then I started thinking that this could be the stops of all those that went long around the 52.30 area getting taken out
- Not sure entirely how that fits into the context here but what I do know is that I should be careful
- Since we are around the 52 level we might see HYPO2 play out. I will be looking for this level to hold so I can take a long position here.
- That would be a 5M SRF opportunity since the 5M trend is down however I see the sell off continue
- I am not sharp at all today. Kinda staring at the screen not paying attention. Gotta snap out of it
- A long lower wicked doji formed on the 30M above the 52 level indicating shift in sentiment. I’ll wait for a bit more of a drop and go long
- T2 win 3.3 ticks conservative sizing
- I am done trading for today. Definitely not focused on trading and think I need a break
- Went upstairs to do a quick workout
- Now that I’m back I can see that price has dropped further and crossed 30M 50MA
- I believe today is all part of a HTF pattern that I used to call the 4HUTL2BD attempt fun to see that having watched PA for quite a while has paid off understanding how this market moves
- Then as I am saying this I see a cup and handle pattern forming on the 4H. Interesting to see how this will play out.
- If we break the 51.80 we could be looking at a next profit target of that 51.40 and then possible 50.80
- If we can hold here we could see a move up to 52.60 and then 53.30s
- I’m done for today but I’ll keep monitoring the tape.
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- 30M SRTC UT
- What is the main trend?
- up
- Where are we in the move?
- After rejecting 52.70 level we dropped to 52.30 level which gave us the opportunity to go long here
- Is 5M confirming?
- The 5M showed more buyers coming in at this level and I went long
- Entry: 52.316
- What is the main trend?
- 30M SRTC UT
- SL
- 52.226
- TP
- 52.519
- Trade Management
- It looks like we will actually BD from this level and see more downside
- I scratched the trade since I wasn’t too sure anymore about this trade idea and I realized that my HYPO1 was that it would drop further to about 51.40s so I should be looking for more downside here
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- 5M SRF
- What is the main trend?
- Up
- 5M is down
- Where are we in the move?
- We just had a big sell off and then we hit the 52 level and we had a long lower wicked doji on the 30M
- Is 5M confirming?
- I waited for the 5M move down a bit more before taking my long position
- Entry: 52.165
- What is the main trend?
- 5M SRF
- SL
- 52.067
- TP
- 52.288
- Trade Management
- I started asking myself why I had taken this position since we had such a big sell off and such little retracement. Started second-guessing my position and when it moved in my direction I covered at 52.198
- Win 3.3 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- P/L for the day
Open Time | Type | Size | Item | Price | S / L | T / P | Close Time | Price | P/L ticks |
2019.01.16 12:38:25 | buy | 2 | wti | 52.165 | 52.067 | 52.288 | 2019.01.16 12:44:47 | 52.198 | 3.30 |
2019.01.16 11:43:14 | buy | 2 | wti | 52.316 | 52.226 | 52.519 | 2019.01.16 11:49:33 | 52.327 | 1.10 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4.40 |
Daily Report Card
- Weekly goal: Get consistent only taking SR plays
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Turned out HYPO1 was yet again the one to play out
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I did fairly OK. When I was in the trade I let my stops stand and would have taken them
- I am not sharp today and really think I should exercise and rest more (better)
- Also some stress in the back of my mind could be weighing me down a bit. I’ll be more mindful of this and write about it in my journal
- What did I do well?
- I did the assessment part really well I think. I’m glad I am starting to mark out better where the high probability areas are
- What do I need to improve?
- My execution! OMG… my HYPO1 plays out in front of my eyes and I hesitated and then never got it because price dropped relatively fast without any pullbacks to hop back in on. Such a waste.
- I guess somewhere it’s good that I didn’t hop on the trade later since that would have been against my plan. Speaking of my plan I should really incorporate and focus more on points where I can add or re-enter
- My execution! OMG… my HYPO1 plays out in front of my eyes and I hesitated and then never got it because price dropped relatively fast without any pullbacks to hop back in on. Such a waste.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- TAKE THE TRADE! If it’s your setup and your hypo1 for fuck’s sake TAKE IT!
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Understand that you are in a higher probability position when you execute a trade
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Wait for more confirmation. I’ve missed a few trades like this.
- Grade yourself 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
- 1
- Because I failed to execute my HYPO1
- I was stalking it and then hesitated until it was beyond the point of no return
- Because I failed to execute my HYPO1
- 1
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
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