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01162019 Trade Plan — Sell off at 4H failed swing high

Daily Report Card

01162019 Trade Plan — Sell off at 4H failed swing high

01162019 Trade Plan — Sell off at 4H failed swing high

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeSatSunMonTueWed
-1/121/131/141/151/16
Beers night before8801 fin­ger whiskey0
Time bed yesterdaylatelate22:5322:0122:20
woke up--8:216:117:14
Hours sleep669:288:108:54
Awake--1:151:54-
REM--1:280:30-
Light--5:474:50-
Deep--0:580:56-
Sleep well?11333
Mela­tonin01x000
Neg­a­tive thoughts?22213
Exer­cise yester(to)day11333
Grat­i­tude55555
Joy55555
Anger11111
Fear11111
Focus11323
Cof­fees today1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop)no1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon1 Turk­ish cof­fee half scoop in morning1 Turk­ish cof­fee half scoop in morning
Inter­mit­tent fastingnonoyes, 11/4noyes
Water L22343
Vit­a­minsnonoyesyesyes
Cig­a­rettes1010000

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I am get­ting a bet­ter idea how my week­ends affect my body and there­fore my con­cen­tra­tion. Points to improve are sleep­ing rou­tine and lim­it social interactions.
    • Last night I slept lat­er but I also woke up lat­er so I could get some more sleep in. Sad­ly my Fit­bit didn’t track my sleep because I wasn’t wear­ing it right appar­ent­ly. I’ll be more mind­ful of that.
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel bet­ter than yes­ter­day. How­ev­er still not a 100%. Tomor­row I’ll be even better. 
    • I can sense that I am not in a good state because I am too eas­i­ly both­ered by the peo­ple around me. I have neg­a­tive thoughts like aggres­sion and resent­ment towards them. This is not good but I under­stand that my psy­chi­cal state is inter­twined with my men­tal state and I will keep mon­i­tor­ing this. 
    • Anoth­er thing is that I keep get­ting dis­tract­ed by a per­son in my life that is prob­a­bly not worth being in my life as it is and I should stop wast­ing time think­ing about this. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Mar­ket was bal­anc­ing and there was no dis­cern­able main trend
    • We start­ed the AS by mov­ing high­er off the bounce we had the day before 50.80, 50.90 area which was also the val­ue area for the day
      • We moved high­er and moved towards the mid­dle of the pre­vi­ous days range which was the DPP/WPP area for the day as well
        • We then made a pull­back and start­ed rang­ing in the 51.20 to .50 range
    • Lon­don opened bring­ing us back to the val­ue area for buy­ers to come in and we reject­ed the 50.80/90 area and we saw an imbal­ance when prices moved up
      • A pull­back to mid point of the prev. Day again that showed strength on the buy­ers side and the imbal­ance continued
    • Lat­er on dur­ing NY we bounced off the same area and on stronger momen­tum test­ed the excess area and after a pull­back on  strong momen­tum still we broke through some­what effort­less­ly and the imbal­ance con­tin­ued a lit­tle longer in what looks like overex­tend­ed ter­ri­to­ry being so high over the excess area would mean the sell­ers more incen­tivized to come in
      • We end­ed up reject­ing the 52.40 some more in the rest of the session

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Showed a draw of ‑0.560M which is fair­ly little
  • EIA report
    • Fore­cast is a draw of ‑1.323M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

-ThuFriWeekMonTue
-1/101/111/7 — 1/111/141/15
High53.01453.55653.55652.34952.53
Low51.64351.42248.30950.62750.887
Close52.64151.93751.93751.00352.235
Pip move137.1213.4524.7172.2164.3
PP52.43352.30551.26751.32651.884
dis­tance7988.3295.869.999.7
R153.22353.18854.22552.02552.881
dis­tance137.1213.4524.7172.2164.3
R253.80454.43956.51453.04853.527
dis­tance-58.1-125.1-228.9-102.3-64.6
S151.85251.05448.97850.30351.238
dis­tance-137.1-213.4-524.7-172.2-164.3
S251.06250.17146.0249.60450.241
TV66,07865,509325,96369,03556,496
50MA52.78652.52764.07852.27652.062
200MA64.79764.739-64.67664.627
ATR2.25662.27864.8912.28472.2508
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • DR1 has expand­ed a lit­tle bit but the rest contracted
  • ATR
    • Still around the same level
  • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
    • High 52.53
    • Low 50.887
  • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
    • Val­ue I would say is around the 51.15 to .35 area
    • Excess is around the 52.20 to .40 area a bit more con­gest­ed than val­ue area so we might be see­ing more sell­ers com­ing in and bring­ing the mar­ket down or area of more smart play­ers com­ing in
  • Is there a shift in value/excess migration?
    • There was a shift in val­ue migra­tion name­ly that the val­ue area has shift­ed high­er about 30 ticks, same for the excess area
  • What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing or balancing?
    • I believe that we are still bal­anc­ing on the main trend but if the excess area holds as sup­port we could see the con­tin­u­a­tion of the HTF uptrend
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • Areas I would like to get involved in are
      • A shot over the excess lev­el into overex­tend­ed areas and failed swing high on the HTF around the DR1 52.881 lev­el would be one good place to go short
      • Overex­tend­ed move into 4H 50MA which is right below the val­ue area and make a swing high
  • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
Cur­rent52.4
Price
Dai­lyPriceDis­tance
50MA52.062-34
200MA64.6271,223
Yes­ter­day’s high52.5313
Yes­ter­day’s low50.887-151

S/Rkindlev­elDis­tanceRate it 1–10Why?
R6WR154.225182.58prev. HTF swing high
R5Week­ly53.915010prev. HTF swing high
R4DR253.527112.710prev. HTF swing high
R3DR152.88148.18prev. HTF swing high
R2Yes. High52.531310Yes. high
R1Excess52.4010excess area
CURRENT-52.4---
S1Dai­ly52.3-109Dai­ly lev­el mid excess area
S2DPP51.884-51.66prev. swing level
S3Val­ue area51.35-10510yes. low, WPP/DS1 area
S4Yes. Low50.887-151.39yes­ter­day’s low
S5DS250.241-215.96below 4h 50MA
S6Dai­ly49.8-26064H 50MA area
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • The AS moved down to find sup­port around 52 lev­el and has since moved back into the excess area and is now test­ing the top of the area around 52.40

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1
    • We overex­tend over the excess area to come into more sell­ers poten­tial­ly around the DR1 level
      • This would be a good place to short after look­ing for con­fir­ma­tion on the tape
      • Prof­it tar­get would be 51.40 area but could cre­ate more momen­tum and blast through
  • Hypo 2
    • We BD from excess area into sell­ers around the 52 area and overex­tend  into 51.80s before revers­ing and con­tin­u­ing the imbal­ance of the main trend up
      • Prof­it tar­get would be excess area around 52.30 area
        • We could then poten­tial­ly drop back down to break towards val­ue area
  • Hypo 3
    • After break­ing down to 52 area we come back up into excess and BO from here to new HTF highs
      • Prof­it tar­get would be 53.90 a week­ly area
  • Points to pos­si­ble get involved in are
    • Short above 52.50 area
    • Long or short around 52 area
    • Long around 51.30 area

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Get con­sis­tent only tak­ing SR plays

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • Lon­don opened trad­ing down and I feel that HYPO1 could be play­ing out but that I missed my point of entry since it looks like that might have hap­pened dur­ing AS
    • How­ev­er we have not cleared this area yet so I am still look­ing to start stalk­ing above the 52.40 area 
    • I was think­ing to go short here but the 5M is not show­ing my set­up so I won’t.
    • It looks like we are still stuck around this excess area and we haven’t been able to break to new highs yet. Smart mon­ey is def­i­nite­ly up to some­thing here let’s wait and see what they wan­na do.
    • 5M is show­ing UT and widen­ing KC which could mean a rever­sal might be upon us
      • 52.60 is push­ing back and there are still poten­tial­ly more sell­ers at this lev­el. How­ev­er this looks like there might not be enough of them
    • If I would take a trade here that would be a SRF and that has the least R/R so why risk that? I bet­ter wait for a pos­si­ble con­fir­ma­tion of a SRTT which might not come of course.
    • And we made a sharp move over into 52.60
    • This looks like it might be BO here. PA was mov­ing in small­er swings up into the 52.50 lev­el and now we went over it. 
      • Could also be a fake out
        • Or per­haps we had the fake out before dur­ing the AS at 08:20
    • We made the first bear­ish can­dle at the 52.70 lev­el but I am wait­ing for the 2nd con­fir­ma­tion before I get in short here
    • We dropped back to UKC and I was think­ing to go long here but that’s not part of my set­up (yet)
    • A lot of sell­ers com­ing in here but it could just be to buy up more for the smart guys
      • We are at a HTF lev­el so best to be extra cautious
    • We dropped back down to the 52.50 area and might CAS here and might be a good oppor­tu­ni­ty to go long here which I won’t since that’s not part of my plan
      • Let’s pre­tend I did 
        • Entry 52.57
        • SL 52.50
        • TP 52.70
        • Hypo­thet­i­cal stop got tak­en out
    • So HYPO1 does seem to be play­ing out. We shot up over the UKC close to DR1 52.881 (we got to .77) and we then got sell­ers in 
      • I didn’t trade this oppor­tu­ni­ty because KC and VWAP were widen­ing and then PA moved high­er over the UKC which then I am a bit reluc­tant to take a posi­tion and was look­ing for con­fir­ma­tion. And then came a big drop back into the KC and since I was think­ing that this could have just been a 30M SRF move I thought my R/R was not great at all to get in short at this level
        • We then dropped anoth­er 10–15 ticks but might be look­ing to continue
    • If 52.30 holds as val­ue area now I could pos­si­bly have an oppor­tu­ni­ty going in long here
    • Buy­ers com­ing in around 52.40
    • I’m stalk­ing a pos­si­ble oppor­tu­ni­ty at 52.25 which is also the 5M 200MA
      • This would be a 30M SRTC opportunity
    • T1 scratched 1.1 tick prof­it con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
    • It looks like we might be BD from 52.30 area and best would be to wait for a pull­back up to this lev­el to take a short
    • After such a big sell off I feel like being extra care­ful there
    • We saw a long low­er wicked doji can­dle and I thought about going long there but then I start­ed think­ing that this could be the stops of all those that went long around the 52.30 area get­ting tak­en out
      • Not sure entire­ly how that fits into the con­text here but what I do know is that I should be careful
    • Since we are around the 52 lev­el we might see HYPO2 play out. I will be look­ing for this lev­el to hold so I can take a long posi­tion here. 
      • That would be a 5M SRF oppor­tu­ni­ty since the 5M trend is down how­ev­er I see the sell off continue
    • I am not sharp at all today. Kin­da star­ing at the screen not pay­ing atten­tion. Got­ta snap out of it
    • A long low­er wicked doji formed on the 30M above the 52 lev­el indi­cat­ing shift in sen­ti­ment. I’ll wait for a bit more of a drop and go long
    • T2 win 3.3 ticks con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
    • I am done trad­ing for today. Def­i­nite­ly not focused on trad­ing and think I need a break
    • Went upstairs to do a quick workout
    • Now that I’m back I can see that price has dropped fur­ther and crossed 30M 50MA
      • I believe today is all part of a HTF pat­tern that I used to call the 4HUTL2BD attempt fun to see that hav­ing watched PA for quite a while has paid off under­stand­ing how this mar­ket moves
      • Then as I am say­ing this I see a cup and han­dle pat­tern form­ing on the 4H. Inter­est­ing to see how this will play out.
    • If we break the 51.80 we could be look­ing at a next prof­it tar­get of that 51.40 and then pos­si­ble 50.80
      • If we can hold here we could see a move up to 52.60 and then 53.30s
    • I’m done for today but I’ll keep mon­i­tor­ing the tape. 

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 30M SRTC UT
        • What is the main trend?
          • up
        • Where are we in the move?
          • After reject­ing 52.70 lev­el we dropped to 52.30 lev­el which gave us the oppor­tu­ni­ty to go long here
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • The 5M showed more buy­ers com­ing in at this lev­el and I went long
        • Entry: 52.316
    • SL
      • 52.226
    • TP
      • 52.519
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • It looks like we will actu­al­ly BD from this lev­el and see more downside
      • I scratched the trade since I wasn’t too sure any­more about this trade idea and I real­ized that my HYPO1 was that it would drop fur­ther to about 51.40s so I should be look­ing for more down­side here
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 5M SRF
        • What is the main trend?
          • Up
          • 5M is down
        • Where are we in the move?
          • We just had a big sell off and then we hit the 52 lev­el and we had a long low­er wicked doji on the 30M
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • I wait­ed for the 5M move down a bit more before tak­ing my long position
        • Entry: 52.165
    • SL
      • 52.067
    • TP
      • 52.288
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I start­ed ask­ing myself why I had tak­en this posi­tion since we had such a big sell off and such lit­tle retrace­ment. Start­ed sec­ond-guess­ing my posi­tion and when it moved in my direc­tion I cov­ered at 52.198
      • Win 3.3 ticks

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • P/L for the day
    Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticks
    2019.01.16 12:38:25buy2wti52.16552.06752.2882019.01.16 12:44:4752.1983.30
    2019.01.16 11:43:14buy2wti52.31652.22652.5192019.01.16 11:49:3352.3271.10
    ---------4.40

    Dai­ly Report Card

    • Week­ly goal: Get con­sis­tent only tak­ing SR plays
      • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
        • Turned out HYPO1 was yet again the one to play out
      • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
        • I did fair­ly OK. When I was in the trade I let my stops stand and would have tak­en them
        • I am not sharp today and real­ly think I should exer­cise and rest more (bet­ter)
          • Also some stress in the back of my mind could be weigh­ing me down a bit. I’ll be more mind­ful of this and write about it in my journal
      • What did I do well?
        • I did the assess­ment part real­ly well I think. I’m glad I am start­ing to mark out bet­ter where the high prob­a­bil­i­ty areas are
      • What do I need to improve?
        • My exe­cu­tion! OMG… my HYPO1 plays out in front of my eyes and I hes­i­tat­ed and then nev­er got it because price dropped rel­a­tive­ly fast with­out any pull­backs to hop back in on. Such a waste. 
          • I guess some­where it’s good that I didn’t hop on the trade lat­er since that would have been against my plan. Speak­ing of my plan I should real­ly incor­po­rate and focus more on points where I can add or re-enter
      • What’s one thing you learned today?
        • TAKE THE TRADE! If it’s your set­up and your hypo1 for fuck’s sake TAKE IT!
      • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
        • Under­stand that you are in a high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty posi­tion when you exe­cute a trade
      • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
        • Wait for more con­fir­ma­tion. I’ve missed a few trades like this. 
      • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
        • 1
          • Because I failed to exe­cute my HYPO1
            • I was stalk­ing it and then hes­i­tat­ed until it was beyond the point of no return
    T3chAddict
    t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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