
17 Jan 01172019 Trade Plan — Stop hunting?
01172019 Trade Plan — Stop hunting?
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu |
- | 1/13 | 1/14 | 1/15 | 1/16 | 1/17 |
Beers night before | 8 | 0 | 1 finger whiskey | 0 | 0 |
Time bed yesterday | late | 22:53 | 22:01 | 22:20 | 22:08 |
woke up | - | 8:21 | 6:11 | 7:14 | 6:05 |
Hours sleep | 6 | 9:28 | 8:10 | 8:54 | 7:57 |
Awake | - | 1:15 | 1:54 | - | - |
REM | - | 1:28 | 0:30 | - | - |
Light | - | 5:47 | 4:50 | - | - |
Deep | - | 0:58 | 0:56 | - | - |
Sleep well? | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Melatonin | 1x | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Coffees today | no | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon | 1 Turkish coffee half scoop in morning | 1 Turkish coffee half scoop in morning | 1 turkish coffee (1 scoop morning) 1 espresso (half cup, afternoon) |
Intermittent fasting | no | yes, 11/4 | no | yes | yes |
Water L | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | no | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I worked out yesterday by doing some sparring and jumping rope
- I woke up in the middle of the night and actually got up and since I got up I went to start the conversion of my overnight screen recording of the London/NY session. Went to the bathroom and back to bed. I twisted and turned a lot in my sleep. This is probably also the reason why my Fitbit didn’t track any of it. I made sure the Fitbit was located below the wrist as instructed but didn’t work. Perhaps the twisting and turning made me sleep in a position it couldn’t track. Be careful today since you I might not be the sharpest today.
- How do you feel?
- Surprisingly not bad. I did get that espresso in the afternoon but have only drank a few sips and will definitely take it slow and easy today. Not sure what’s going on in my head when I’m asleep. Hope it clears up soon. I’ll write some more in my journal.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 2
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- During the AS we saw that we had buyers coming in around the 52 level
- And then again at 52.20 continuing the imbalance up
- We did have some sellers around the 52.30 level but those got taken out with fair ease and we continued to 52.40 level with a spike into 52.60 and that’s where a lot of sellers came in and started shifting the imbalance
- Then when London opened we traded a bit higher and my HYPO1 was in play; if we would overextend over this excess area I would look for a short. This I failed to do and I know why and have moved on since. New day. New opportunities. One good trade at a time.
- I committed the missed opportunity into my playbook and will be better next time, also I review the screen recording and visualize taking the trade over and over again. Visualization is key. In the mind or on the screen. The brain doesn’t care.
- So after the sell off around 52.70 level we sold off till 51.80 with some hiccups around 52.30 and the consequent PB to CAR this same level and continue the imbalance down to 51.80
- It is here at 51.80 buyers became interested and pushed back to the 52.30 level and even over til 52.40s before dropping hard into the previous 51.80 level with a spike down into 51.55s
- I consider this to be the same level
- Buyers stepped up again and started the proper imbalance that brought PA back up to 52.30 level and then another push after the PB at 51.95 clearing 51.80 as a good value area and reason for support
- The rest of the session we moved higher over the 52.30 into the 52.70s our initial big start of the day
- During the AS we saw that we had buyers coming in around the 52 level
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- 2 days ago we had the API
- Draw of ‑0.560M
- 2 days ago we had the API
- EIA report
- Yesterday
- Forecast ‑1.323M
- ‘Actual’ number draw of ‑2.683M
- Yesterday
Intraday Technical Analysis
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 52.777
- Low 51.538
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- 52.05 area is a a good value area
- 52.40 area seems to be a good excess area
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration?
- There has been a continuation of the migration up in regards with the value and excess levels
- What is the current market condition? Are we trending or balancing?
- Even though we had a bit of an imbalance moving prices higher we are still trying to balance out the market and haven’t started a new trend leg yet
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- Between 52.40 and 52.70 would a good shorting area in accordance with my trading rules
- Going long would be between 52.05 and 51.60 areas
- How far away are we from technical levels?
- We start the day off between the value and excess areas close to both
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- The AS shows a bounce off the 52.05 level
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1
- PA overextend the excess area (not necessarily into prev. Day high 52.777) and rolls over into the value area.
- If we then break the value and hold below 52 area we could see a potential huge drop to 50.50 level, then 50 level. Probably not during London, more likely during NY.
- Areas I’d like to get involved
- Short over 52.50 area
- Add to position or re-enter if we can hold under 52.30
- Short over 52.50 area
- Profit targets would be
- 52 area
- 51.50 area
- 50.50 and 50 if we can drop that far during London
- Hypo 2
- Overextend into value area and hold and make swing high into excess area and fail to hold creating another imbalance down in accordance with Hypo1
- Areas I’d like to get involved
- Long opportunity around 52.05 value area (if trading rules are met)
- Profit target excess area 52.40 area
- Short in accordance with Hypo1
- Long opportunity around 52.05 value area (if trading rules are met)
- Hypo 3
- Overextend into value area and hold and make swing high into excess area and hold this area to see a continuation up
- Areas I’d like to get involved
- Long opportunity like Hypo2
- Look to add or re-enter on hold of excess area to catch the continuation
- Profit target would be prev. High of day 52.70 area
- Either look to add or re-enter based on reading of tape around this area to see if we will break to new highs
- Profit target would be prev. High of day 52.70 area
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by sticking to playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- After London opened we started nearing the 52.05 level again so let’s see how this interacts
- Spread is wider than ‘normal’ at 39 instead of 28/29
- Stalking hypo2
- T1 loss 10.7 ticks
- T2 win 9.1 ticks
- Looking for hypo2 to continue into excess area and then potentially roll over for the big move
- PA is still very sluggish which makes me want to be a bit careful. But careful does not mean not taking the trade when I should based on my rules.
- We are at the 5M 200MA (which is also the 30M 50MA and VWAP area 52.30 level the reason why I took half off the table and then the other half since PA wasn’t building momentum to blast through and it looks like PA is indeed reversing at this level
- We dropped back to 52.13 level and then quickly reversed back up testing the same 52.30 level as before. Something’s going on around these levels. I am going to stay out and follow my plan.
- Wow we dropped almost 30 ticks in a few seconds below the value area around 51.90 area
- Stop hunting?
- T3 scratched up 1 tick
- I am looking for the value area to clear and then a PB to this level so I can get in long
- 6pm feel like I’m losing some focus and need to work to keep looking at the screen
- Even though we had dropped to value area and tried to move up we failed and dropped back hard into the value area again. Hypo2 is still in play though since buyers coming in around this level might create the short term imbalance to bring PA up again. Let’s see if this can be the start of a new short term trend
- Could this be that I need to switch from momentum mode to trade2hold mode? I read about this again today and I think I understand the point the author was trying to make with this example
- I was thinking to go long on the PB but a lot of ‘weird’ behaviour around the 52.054 level so I’m not too confident to do this. Also, it doesn’t fit my trade rules exactly. I will take this opportunity to review this later and see if this is worth putting in my playbook
- Imbalance might be shifting in the favor of the sellers and we might break the value area
- We tested the high of the value area and moved further down indicating selling imbalance
- Based on my defined edge I can’t take trades in this direction
- My setup arises at the 51.80 level but since we are below value level a short would be warranted and not a long position for a reversal. Also the 30M shows that there is still about 20 ticks to go before we hit the next price level; LKC
- And we are nearing the prev. Day low
- I went out for a quick walk and cigarette and don’t feel as tired as I was feeling before. I think the lack of sleep last night still got to me.
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- 5M SRTT
- What is the main trend?
- Short term downtrend on the 30M
- Where are we in the move?
- Near value area possibly looking to reverse for swing high
- Is 5M confirming?
- 5M showed a rejection candle of this level so that was my signal
- What risk am I going to put on?
- I can risk 2% on the whole day
- 30% of that is reserved for A plus setups
- I am risking 8.5% of the daily risk on this trade meaning 0.17% of the whole account
- I know this is small but I want to get consistent in taking the trades and build confidence in this fairly new approach of mine before I think about adding size
- I can risk 2% on the whole day
- Entry: 52.183
- What is the main trend?
- 5M SRTT
- SL
- Just below the lower wick
- 52.081
- TP
- 52.40
- Trade Management
- It looks like it might go against me and I might have entered too soon but I feel calm knowing that I can always get back in.
- I shouldn’t say that I got in too soon. I saw the first signal and I got in. Period. The rest is about managing expectations.
- Got stopped out at 52.076
- Loss 10.7 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- Same as T1
- Entry: 52.214
- What risk am I going to put on?
- Same as T1 but I put my hard stop wider so technically my exposure doubled. I’m looking to stop myself out if it drops below 52.10 though
- This is silly what I’m saying so I put my hard stop at 52.114 10ticks from entry
- Entry was sloppy. I feel like I got in too high.
- 52.214
- Same as T1
- SL
- 52.114
- TP
- 52.40
- Into the excess area
- 52.40
- Trade Management
- R/R isn’t as good as I would like to see
- I feel calm and collected during the trade. If it hits my stop so be it. I feel good.
- It jumped over in my direction but then moments later reversed a bit
- I took half off at the 5M 200MA at 52.305
- Win 9.1 ticks
- The other half I took off when PA didn’t make any moves from this level and had reversed a little bit and closed at 52.305 as well
- Win 9.1 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T3
- Why? What do I see?
- 5M SRF DT
- Was thinking that if this is stop hunting then the market might be wanting to go up since we are in the value area
- Entry on smallest possible size because it felt a bit experimental
- 52.013
- Entry on smallest possible size because it felt a bit experimental
- SL
- 51.947
- Tight stop below previous candle body
- TP
- 52.107
- Trade Management
- Scratched the trade quickly thinking this is not what I have backtested before at 52.023 up 1 tick but I think should have have just taken my stop.
- Why? What do I see?
- T4
- Why? What do I see?
- 5M SRTT DT
- What is the main trend?
- Down
- Where are we in the move?
- We area near the 30M LKC and 20 ticks or so away from prev day low
- Plus we are well below value level so might be extra buyers coming in
- Is 5M confirming?
- 2 rejection candles on the 5M in the overextended area made want to get in
- Plus I want to be more aggressive in taking trades
- Entry: 51.814
- What is the main trend?
- 5M SRTT DT
- SL
- A little wider than usual giving it a little bit more room to breathe sort of speak
- 51.664
- Risking 14% of daily risk and 0.29% of my account
- TP
- 51.914
- Trade Management
- Got stopped out at 51.647
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I tried letting the trade play out but when I saw resistance on the tape I decided to take early profits
- P/L for the day
Ticket | Open Time | Type | Size | Item | Price | S / L | T / P | Close Time | Price | P/L ticks |
2068102018 | 2019.01.17 14:08:41 | buy | 2 | wti | 51.814 | 51.664 | 51.914 | 2019.01.17 14:24:16 | 51.647 | -16.70 |
2068099261 | 2019.01.17 11:45:14 | buy | 1 | wti | 52.013 | 51.947 | 52.107 | 2019.01.17 11:46:32 | 52.023 | 1.00 |
2068099044 | 2019.01.17 10:42:00 | buy | 1 | wti | 52.214 | 52.164 | 52.445 | 2019.01.17 11:05:41 | 52.305 | 9.10 |
2068091923 | 2019.01.17 10:42:00 | buy | 1 | wti | 52.214 | 52.164 | 52.445 | 2019.01.17 11:04:15 | 52.305 | same as 9.1 |
2068091783 | 2019.01.17 10:20:06 | buy | 2 | wti | 52.183 | 52.081 | 52.323 | 2019.01.17 10:39:07 | 52.076 | -10.70 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -17.30 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -0.31% |
Daily Report Card
- Perform well by sticking to playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- I thought Hypo 2 was going to play out and it did partially but then failed to bring price back up to excess area for me to take a short there
- But I did trade the long opportunity of the value area rejection into a possible swing high into excess area
- We then continued to make lower highs and when we finally burst through the value area at 52.05 I should have been extra careful to take a long position. Good thing was that I used what I call conservative sizing on these trades. My setup doesn’t allow for good trades when in a sharp trend since the swing highs or lows fall within the KC channel and my rules dictate PA has to move beyond the bands
- This then leads me to think I need another setup to trade these opportunities (which I am learning now by being part of the community) and won’t be trading it until I’ve done some backtesting on it
- For now I will focus on taking trades in the current setup that I am trying to master
- How well did I enter into and sized positions?
- I did well to be very conservative with my sizing. Because we were in a downtrend my setup only arose on the swing lows of the move and thus could only take fading positions which don’t have good R/R and should probably not be done yet by a noob like me
- I only risked 8.5 to 15% of my daily risk on a given trade which is 0.17 to 0.29% of whole account.
- I didn’t see a A plus setup or else I would have risked 30% on my daily risk.
- Down 0.31% of account size for the day
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- For the first two hours I was on point and lock and loaded. Then I started to get tired. Last night I woke up several times and even got out once so didn’t have too much rest. Surprisingly, I didn’t feel as tired in the morning. I started to notice my attention going towards anything but the screen and I struggled to keep my eyes on the screen. This is when I went for a walk and came back to reassess the market.
- During the trades I was fairly calm and collected. I think I handled my emotions well. I was more focused on the chart and if my trade was still working
- What did I do well?
- I I did well to understand where the market context was indicating the direction of the session was going to be.
- I did well to place conservative sized risk on each trade.
- I did well to pull the trigger when my hyp 2 setup arose and once more when it first stopped me out. Then when the second trade went in my favor I did well to take half off the table at a technical level and assessing if I should let the other half run. Which showed signs of weakness and I took that off as well.
- Another thing I did well was to take off pivot point levels and focus on less, namely the value and excess areas. This simplified things for me as well as give me more time to focus on what matters more like reading market context and hypothesize on possible outcomes.
- Final, I did well to keep in mind that each trade is just 1 trade out of a group of 20 trades that I can analyze later on. One trade on itself doesn’t mean much
- What do I need to improve?
- I need to work harder on the quality of my setups and reassess if the way I was doing things before is actually necessary or just decorative and without purpose (like I removed the pivot points). I will need some time to assess this.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- I learned that there is still so much I have to learn and that I’m excited to learn them but I feel I’m getting closer.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Pull the trigger when setup arises in favorable conditions.
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- During the session I take a lot of notes and I think I should only focus on key levels and how PA interacts with them and especially during a trade. You can fill in the details of the trade afterwards.
- Grade yourself 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
- 3
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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