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01182019 Trade Plan — Think in percentages

Daily Report Card

01182019 Trade Plan — Think in percentages

01182019 Trade Plan — Think in percentages

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeMonTueWedThuFri
-1/141/151/161/171/18
Beers night before01 fin­ger whiskey000
Time bed yesterday22:5322:0122:2022:0821:52
woke up8:216:117:146:057:14
Hours sleep9:288:108:547:579:22
Awake1:151:54---
REM1:280:30---
Light5:474:50---
Deep0:580:56---
Sleep well?33311
Mela­tonin00000
Neg­a­tive thoughts?21323
Exer­cise yester(to)day33352
Grat­i­tude55554
Joy55554
Anger11112
Fear11112
Focus32331
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon1 Turk­ish cof­fee half scoop in morning1 Turk­ish cof­fee half scoop in morning1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop morn­ing) 1 espres­so (half cup, afternoon)1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop morn­ing) 1 espres­so (half cup, afternoon)
Inter­mit­tent fastingyes, 11/4noyesyesyes
Water L34333
Vit­a­minsyesyesyesyesyes
Cig­a­rettes00000

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I don’t know what is going on this week but I have not been sleep­ing well. My fit­bit hasn’t even been able to track it but not sure if that’s because of my unrest. Take last night. I went to bed a lit­tle before 10pm and couldn’t fall asleep and last time I checked the time it was 11pm. I went to bed tired and read a book unable to keep my eyes open I put the book away think­ing I’d fall asleep straight away but no such luck.
  • How do you feel?
    • I don’t feel sharp and I’m very eas­i­ly dis­tract­ed. I have sil­ly thoughts in my head about hypo­thet­i­cal sit­u­a­tions and how I would react in said sit­u­a­tions etc. This tells me that I am way off today. I was doing real­ly well. Still haven’t pin­point­ed why I’m so rest­less at night. Guess I’ll just have to dig deep­er. This does mean I should be extra care­ful today.
    • Because of this I’ve spend a lot of time wasted. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 1

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • We start­ed the AS off with a drop into 52 lev­el right above the val­ue area that I des­ig­nat­ed, but then had a bounce from this area in small­er PA and basi­cal­ly trad­ed in a range in the mid­dle of the val­ue and excess areas
    • When Lon­don opened we start­ed with what looked like my HYPO2 for the day and test­ed the val­ue area again (I went long here as per my hypo2) but then failed to make a swing high into excess area as per my HYPO2
      • I should have been bet­ter at rec­og­niz­ing the shift in sen­ti­ment when we did so because sell­ers came in pret­ty strong and we had the 2nd failed swing high come in fair­ly quickly
      • This dropped PA below the val­ue area in what looked like a stop-hunt­ing move
      • We bounced back over the val­ue area and made a failed swing high before slow­ly retrac­ing back to the pre­vi­ous drop (it was at the failed swing high that we could have gone short)
      • The next swing high which was also a LH didn’t even tried break­ing the val­ue area and it is here where we could have added short (based on my rules I wasn’t allowed to get in any­way, but good to keep an eye on it)
      • We could have had a nice prof­it tar­get at prev day low
    • Prev day low of 51.527 was a good place for buy­ers to come in and shift the imbal­ance which is what hap­pened after NY opened
      • PA showed bot­tom­ing out around this lev­el before the open and then NY took it back up. Per­haps some prof­it-tak­ing and repo­si­tion­ing going on
      • Imbal­ance was enough to dri­ve PA back up to prev val­ue area before we saw anoth­er big drop
        • This could have been an oppor­tu­ni­ty for me but I don’t trade NY ses­sion (yet)
      • After retest­ing prev day low again in wild swing the buy­ers stepped up and brought PA up to prev day HIGH

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • None for the day

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
    • High 52.869
    • Low 51.238
  • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
    • Val­ue area is 51.80 to .90 area
    • Excess area is 52.60 to .70 area
  • Is there a shift in value/excess migration?
    • It looks like we expand­ed our range. Where we had a nar­row range yes­ter­day we seem to have a wide range today.
      • Val­ue areas has migrat­ed down and excess has migrat­ed up
  • What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing or balancing?
    • On the short term we had an uptrend how­ev­er the HTF still shows some bal­anc­ing going on. We are how­ev­er at the top of the HTF range and today’s AS is hold­ing above yesterday’s high
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • Overex­ten­sion above the prev day high lev­el could be a great short opportunity
    • Excess area hold­ing as sup­port to see a new swing high
      • Excess area fail­ing could mean good short oppor­tu­ni­ties but not with­in my trad­ing rules
    • Overex­tend down into val­ue area and go long
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • The AS made new HHs but show­ing weak­ness in momen­tum and could be rolling over

Trade Ideas

  • Hypo 1
    • Find sup­port around excess area to make a failed swing high per­haps above prev day high before rolling over again
      • Areas I’d be look­ing to get involved are 
        • Long in the excess area
          • PT
            • 5 ticks above prev day high
        • Short prev day high area
          • PT
            • 52.40
            • 52.05 lev­el per­haps even
  • Hypo 2
    • We break down from excess area and find sup­port around 52.30 lev­el and make and effort for a swing high maybe around excess area but fail to break up again and then roll over
      • Areas I’d like to get involved
        • Around 52.30/.40 lev­el long for swing high attempt
          • PT: 52.60/.70
        • Short around 52.50/.60
          • PT: 52.30/.40, 52 lev­el per­haps even 
  • Hypo 3
    • Same as HYPO1 but hold­ing at this excess lev­el and con­tin­u­ing up
      • Areas I’d like to get involved
        • Long around excess lev­el 52.60/.70
          • PT
            • Around 53.30
            • And then pos­si­ble 54 level

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • I will be extra care­ful today
    • There is a lot of action going on after the open and PA seems a bit erratic
    • Spread is wider
    • T1 ‑6% of dai­ly risk
    • We had a quick buy­ers com­ing in at 52.75
    • This could be where smart guys are posi­tion­ing themselves
    • We dropped to excess area bot­tom at 52.60 and 5M shows a DT so I’m not going to look to fade this move since I think there’s prob­a­bly more down­side here, also espe­cial­ly when PA seems so errat­ic. Liq­uid­i­ty is down as well.
      • We are at the 5M 200MA
    • I am not sharp today and was not focused on the screen and didn’t catch the long oppor­tu­ni­ty as described in my poten­tial HYPO1 play
    • T2 ‑15% of dai­ly risk
    • T3 ‑32% of dai­ly risk
    • A total of ‑52.67% of dai­ly risk
    • We hov­ered at this 53.10 lev­el and not being to lift it but per­haps now we can
    • T4 got stopped out
      • Down 103.36% of my dai­ly risk and 2.07% of my whole account
    • As I write this I see PA just took out my stop and is look­ing to reverse again. But based on my rules for the day I can­not take any oth­er trade. I think I did well today espe­cial­ly con­sid­er­ing that I am tired and not as sharp.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Exper­i­men­tal momen­tum trade
        • What is the main trend?
          • Up on the 30M but pulling back and show­ing a big down bar, 5M is down
        • Where are we in the move?
          • Just above the excess area
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • The 5M is show­ing big movers down
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 6% of dai­ly risk very conservative
        • Entry: 52.799
    • SL
      • 52.875
    • TP
      • 52.60
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Got stopped out at 52.875
      • Not sure if I should be tak­ing exper­i­men­tal trades today. Good thing I took a con­ser­v­a­tive sized position
      • After get­ting stopped out PA looks like going my way but still behav­ing very errat­ic and I’m going to hold off tak­ing any trades until I see my hypo being in play
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HYPO1 Failed swing high Short
        • What is the main trend?
          • 30M is show­ing weak­ness in it’s uptrend and the 5M had dropped to bot­tom excess area and 200MA and reversed up for what looked like a failed swing high at the 50MA
        • Where are we in the move?
          • 5M 50MA area 52.90
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • The tape didn’t show much will­ing­ness to BO from this lev­el so I went short with con­ser­v­a­tive sizing
        • What risk am I going to put on?What risk am I going to put on?
          • I’ve put on 15% of my dai­ly risk
        • Entry: 52.848
    • SL
      • 52.998
    • TP
      • 52.65
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • We didn’t drop as fast as I ini­tial­ly thought would hap­pen and actu­al­ly look like we might con­tin­ue higher
      • Again I’m hap­py to only risk 15% of my dai­ly risk here
      • Got stopped out at 53.003
  • T3
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 30M SRTT UT
        • What is the main trend?
          • Up on the 30M with a pos­si­ble failed swing high at the UKC
        • Where are we in the move?
          • Pos­si­ble failed swing high on the UKC
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • Big bear­ish can­dle on the 5M into 2.0 SD
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • Since it was a poten­tial big move in line with my HYPO1 I put on what I thought was 30% of dai­ly risk but it was actu­al­ly 32%
        • Entry: 52.929
    • SL
      • 53.046
    • TP
      • 52.75
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Stopped out at 53.046
      • Loss 11.7 ticks

  • T4
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 30M SRTT UT
        • What is the main trend?
          • Up on the 30M with a pos­si­ble failed swing high at the UKC
        • Where are we in the move?
          • Just above the 5M/30M UKC and got pushed back into KC
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • Big move up over the UKC and then big move down retrac­ing the whole bar
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 32.80% of dai­ly risk with opti­mistic sizing
        • Entry: 53.061
    • SL
      • 53.211
    • TP
      • 52.75
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • It has been going in my way and I’m up. PA seems very slug­gish giv­ing me the idea that the smart guys are up to some­thing. Obvi­ous­ly I hope that they are slow­ly try­ing to sell off their posi­tions and that this will bring the mar­ket down in my favor.
      • I’m doing well to not take ear­ly profits
      • I added a con­ser­v­a­tive size to my posi­tion when we crossed the VWAP on 5M
      • Risk went up to 50% of dai­ly risk essen­tial­ly tak­ing out my dai­ly risk if this goes against me
      • PA has since gone up again and I’m think­ing I might get stopped out again.
      • I got­ta say though that I am doing well to keep in mind that I am trad­ing per­cent­ages of risk on what is a play­book trade. I feel calm know­ing this and kin­da proud that I am get­ting the hang of putting on risk on trades I should be taking.
      • Back in the mon­ey again
      • Ha, then pa jumped up high­er and took out my stops. I’m done for today in terms of my risk. I will keep watch­ing and also I will watch the NY ses­sion as well. 

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • Yes I did
  • P/L for the day
Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePrice
2019.01.18 13:00:20sell5wti53.06153.21152.5132019.01.18 13:55:1153.212-15.10
2019.01.18 13:24:46sell2wti53.00153.19852.4292019.01.18 13:55:0653.209-20.80
2019.01.18 12:10:10sell5wti52.92953.21252.7332019.01.18 12:39:2553.046-11.70
2019.01.18 12:00:57sell2wti52.9653.22952.7142019.01.18 12:39:2453.046-8.60
2019.01.18 11:39:45sell2wti52.84852.99852.642019.01.18 12:00:0153.003-15.50
2019.01.18 10:34:58sell2wti52.79952.87502019.01.18 10:35:5652.875-7.60
----------79.30

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • Fair­ly accu­rate since my most prob­a­ble HYPO1 was in play
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • I strug­gled with this in the begin­ning feel­ing like I want­ed to trade instead of just wait­ing for my set­up to arise. Then when my first oppor­tu­ni­ty arose I missed it. The rea­son for this was that I was just not pay­ing atten­tion at the time. I was feel­ing a lit­tle on edge prob­a­bly due to being tired and hav­ing had a lit­tle too much cof­fee. Then a cou­ple of hours lat­er I felt some­what good again and was pay­ing atten­tion to the screens a lot more.
      • How can I improve for next time?
        • Under­stand that this is a game where sharp­ness and alert­ness are of the utmost impor­tance. That means, among oth­er things, get­ting qual­i­ty sleep. And if I don’t have enough sleep dial down on risk which I kin­da did. 
        • One thing I can add to this is if I have 3 loss­es in a row I should regroup. Step away from my screens and come back in ten min­utes hope­ful­ly a lit­tle clearer.
    • What did I do well?
      • Fol­low­ing my HYPO1
        • I did well to fol­low HYPO1 after I had lost the first oppor­tu­ni­ty which I should not have missed but I dis­cussed that above.
      • Let trade play out
        • I took my stops and set real­is­tic take prof­it goals
      • Added risk
        • When I thought the move was going in my favor I added to my posi­tion. I’m hap­py that I am tak­ing more cal­cu­lat­ed risk on poten­tial play­book setups
      • Tak­ing my setup
        • After I missed my first oppor­tu­ni­ty I did well to stalk the next one when it final­ly arose. I did take 2 trades pre­ma­ture­ly out of FOMO and I see now that I should stick to my play­book setups and if the oppor­tu­ni­ty aris­es it aris­es. If not, then not. Play with­in the play­ground you’ve estab­lished for your­self and do cross any lines. 
      • Feel­ing calm in the trade con­sid­er­ing the per­cent­ages of risk and being OK with that. 
        • I am so hap­py that I start­ed think­ing in terms of per­cent­ages for my risk because this made me feel less con­trol­ling of the sit­u­a­tion and giv­ing into the ran­dom­ness of the mar­ket but in a cal­cu­lat­ed way. 
      • Being OK with losing
        • Because of the pre­vi­ous point I feel OK with los­ing because it is a cal­cu­lat­ed risk I took. 
    • What do I need to improve?
      • Wait for set­up to arise before putting on risk and stick­ing to my entry rules. If any­thing, what hap­pened today has con­firmed for me that the way I frame the mar­ket is a fair­ly good way and I should stick to my setups. I am feel­ing more and more con­fi­dent in my set­up and can feel calmer in wait­ing for the set­up to arise. 
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • That I can stay calm when I con­sid­er risk in terms of percentages
    • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
      • Put on more risk when trade oppor­tu­ni­ty qualifies
    • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
      • Get in too ear­ly out of FOMO
    • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
      • 4

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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