01212019 Trade Plan - Bear Market Trader
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01212019 Trade Plan

Daily Report Card

01212019 Trade Plan

01212019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeThuFriSatSunMon­day
Beers night before007105
Time bed yesterday22:0821:523:105:030:58
woke up6:057:1410:4611:058:30
Hours sleep7:579:227:366:027:32
Sleep well?11213
Neg­a­tive thoughts?23222
Exer­cise yester(to)day52111
Cof­fees today1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop morn­ing) 1 espres­so (half cup, afternoon)1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop morn­ing) 1 espres­so (half cup, afternoon)no cof­fee1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop)1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fastingyesyesnonono
Water L33333

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I’ve had a busy week­end again but am hap­py about it. Also, I made an account­abil­i­ty pact with a friend to live health­i­er. I’ll write a post about it later. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good but am tired. I zone out some­times so def­i­nite­ly have to be care­ful today. Mean­ing only take 2 trades.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • We start­ed the AS with a steep move up reject­ing the 52.40 level
    • Buy­ers were in charge and drove the imbal­ance up to 53 lev­el and we had a pull­back to 52.70 lev­el (top of excess area)
    • Then we slow­ly inched high­er test­ing that 53 lev­el again with a high of 53.15
    • After Lon­don opened we pulled back again to the excess area and we reject­ed it giv­ing us a swing high to 53.15 again
    • Even­tu­al­ly we inched low­er back to the same excess lev­el dur­ing NY and that’s when the big move hap­pened that brought us to 54.10 level

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Wednes­day, Jan­u­ary 23rd
  • EIA report
    • Thurs­day, Jan­u­ary 24th

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
    • Prev high 54.143
    • Low high 52.372
  • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
    • We have excess area around the 54.05/.15 area
    • Val­ue was found around 52.70 area
  • Is there a shift in value/excess migration?
    • We shift­ed higher
  • What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing or balancing?
    • We are trend­ing on the HTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • A break down from excess area 
    • Excess area hold­ing for anoth­er leg up
  • How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
    • We are trad­ing right above the excess are dur­ing AS and will see how the mar­ket inter­acts with this area
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • The AS opened with a drop from 54.05 to 53.60 area, but have trad­ed high­er since and moved through the excess area with ease and we’re now trad­ing above it which is also above the prev high at 54.143

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1
    • A move down into excess and excess hold­ing to set­up for a swing high
      • Areas I’d like to get involved
        • Long oppor­tu­ni­ty excess area into swing high
          • PT: 54.45 area
        • Short oppor­tu­ni­ty after swing high overex­tends and fails
          • PT: Right above excess area; 54.20 area
  • Hypo 2
    • Overex­tend move above excess area to BD from excess area 
      • Areas I’d like to get involved in
        • Short in overex­tend­ed area above excess
          • PT: 54.05 then 53.70

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • Lon­don opened and we had already start­ed dur­ing AS going down into the excess area. Lon­don took us fur­ther down. I thought I saw an oppor­tu­ni­ty so took a con­ser­v­a­tive long posi­tion but got stopped out
    • T1
      • 13.7% loss of dai­ly risk
    • T2
      • 13.7% loss of dai­ly risk
    • And I’m done trad­ing for today

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 5M SRTT DT
        • What is the main trend?
          • Up but weak­ness in the market
        • Where are we in the move?
          • We are at 5M200MA and 30M VWAP
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • Inde­ci­sion can­dle in overex­tend­ed area
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 13.7% of dai­ly risk
          • 0.27% of whole
        • Entry: 54.061
    • SL
      • 53.911
    • TP
      • 54.305
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Got stopped out at 53.908
        • Loss 15.3 ticks
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Same as T1 but after a huge, what looked like, a bull­ish can­dle after hit­ting 2.0 SD again for the 2nd time
        • Entry: 54.054
    • SL
      • 53.904
    • TP
      • 54.256
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Got stopped out at 53.904
        • 15 ticks

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
  • P/L for the day
Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePrice
2019.01.21 11:05:50buy2wti54.05453.90454.2562019.01.21 11:07:4053.904-15.00
2019.01.21 10:05:07buy2wti54.06153.91154.3052019.01.21 10:22:3153.908-15.30

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • Both of my hypos didn’t play out. HYPO2 was the most like­ly one but didn’t get overex­tend­ed before it BD from excess area
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • I man­aged well. I was only allowed to take 2 posi­tions because of my lack of sharp­ness today and I stick to that rule and didn’t go on tilt to try and force my way. Which is more like­ly to hap­pen when I’m tired and not sharp.
    • What did I do well?
      • Stick to my only 2 trades rule
    • What do I need to improve?
      • I need to have a bet­ter grip on my week­ends so that I feel more ener­gized com­ing into the mar­ket on Monday. 
      • This com­ing week­end I will restrict my social­iz­ing to what I did last week­end as well but extend it to both Fri­day and Saturday.
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • I can’t let social life get in the way of my dream to becom­ing a CPT
    • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
      • Restrict myself when I am not at ‘peak’ performance
    • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
      • Can’t think of any­thing oth­er than not going to bed ear­ly on week­ends. I have a good rou­tine dur­ing the week and I need to car­ry that over on the week­ends as well. Progress not perfection. 
    • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
      • 3


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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