01212019 Trade Plan

21 Jan 01212019 Trade Plan

01212019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon­day
-	1/17	1/18	1/19	1/20	1/21
Beers night before	0	0	7	10	5
Time bed yesterday	22:08	21:52	3:10	5:03	0:58
woke up	6:05	7:14	10:46	11:05	8:30
Hours sleep	7:57	9:22	7:36	6:02	7:32
Awake	-	-	1:01	1:02	1:07
REM	-	-	1:29	0:27	0:57
Light	-	-	3:30	2:58	3:54
Deep	-	-	1:36	1:35	1:34
Sleep well?	1	1	2	1	3
Mela­tonin	0	0	0	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	2	3	2	2	2
Exer­cise yester(to)day	5	2	1	1	1
Grat­i­tude	5	4	5	5	4
Joy	5	4	5	5	4
Anger	1	2	1	1	1
Fear	1	2	1	1	2
Focus	3	1	2	2	2
Cof­fees today	1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop morn­ing) 1 espres­so (half cup, afternoon)	1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop morn­ing) 1 espres­so (half cup, afternoon)	no cof­fee	1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop)	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fasting	yes	yes	no	no	no
Water L	3	3	3	3	3
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes	no	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	0	0	10	10	0

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • I’ve had a busy week­end again but am hap­py about it. Also, I made an account­abil­i­ty pact with a friend to live health­i­er. I’ll write a post about it later. 
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good but am tired. I zone out some­times so def­i­nite­ly have to be care­ful today. Mean­ing only take 2 trades.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
  • We start­ed the AS with a steep move up reject­ing the 52.40 level
  • Buy­ers were in charge and drove the imbal­ance up to 53 lev­el and we had a pull­back to 52.70 lev­el (top of excess area)
  • Then we slow­ly inched high­er test­ing that 53 lev­el again with a high of 53.15
  • After Lon­don opened we pulled back again to the excess area and we reject­ed it giv­ing us a swing high to 53.15 again
  • Even­tu­al­ly we inched low­er back to the same excess lev­el dur­ing NY and that’s when the big move hap­pened that brought us to 54.10 level

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Wednes­day, Jan­u­ary 23rd
• EIA report
  • Thurs­day, Jan­u­ary 24th

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• Where were the overnight highs and lows?
  • Prev high 54.143
  • Low high 52.372
• Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
  • We have excess area around the 54.05/.15 area
  • Val­ue was found around 52.70 area
• Is there a shift in value/excess migration?
  • We shift­ed higher
• What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing or balancing?
  • We are trend­ing on the HTF
• What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
  • A break down from excess area 
  • Excess area hold­ing for anoth­er leg up
• How far away are we from tech­ni­cal levels?
  • We are trad­ing right above the excess are dur­ing AS and will see how the mar­ket inter­acts with this area
• What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
  • The AS opened with a drop from 54.05 to 53.60 area, but have trad­ed high­er since and moved through the excess area with ease and we’re now trad­ing above it which is also above the prev high at 54.143

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1
  • A move down into excess and excess hold­ing to set­up for a swing high
    • Areas I’d like to get involved
      • Long oppor­tu­ni­ty excess area into swing high
        • PT: 54.45 area
      • Short oppor­tu­ni­ty after swing high overex­tends and fails
        • PT: Right above excess area; 54.20 area
• Hypo 2
  • Overex­tend move above excess area to BD from excess area 
    • Areas I’d like to get involved in
      • Short in overex­tend­ed area above excess
        • PT: 54.05 then 53.70

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • Lon­don opened and we had already start­ed dur­ing AS going down into the excess area. Lon­don took us fur­ther down. I thought I saw an oppor­tu­ni­ty so took a con­ser­v­a­tive long posi­tion but got stopped out
  • T1
    • 13.7% loss of dai­ly risk
  • T2
    • 13.7% loss of dai­ly risk
  • And I’m done trad­ing for today

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • 5M SRTT DT
      • What is the main trend?
        • Up but weak­ness in the market
      • Where are we in the move?
        • We are at 5M200MA and 30M VWAP
      • Is 5M confirming?
        • Inde­ci­sion can­dle in overex­tend­ed area
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 13.7% of dai­ly risk
        • 0.27% of whole
      • Entry: 54.061
  • SL
    • 53.911
  • TP
    • 54.305
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Got stopped out at 53.908
      • Loss 15.3 ticks

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Same as T1 but after a huge, what looked like, a bull­ish can­dle after hit­ting 2.0 SD again for the 2nd time
      • Entry: 54.054
  • SL
    • 53.904
  • TP
    • 54.256
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Got stopped out at 53.904
      • 15 ticks

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
• P/L for the day

Open Time	Type	Size	Item	Price	S / L	T / P	Close Time	Price
2019.01.21 11:05:50	buy	2	wti	54.054	53.904	54.256	2019.01.21 11:07:40	53.904	-15.00
2019.01.21 10:05:07	buy	2	wti	54.061	53.911	54.305	2019.01.21 10:22:31	53.908	-15.30
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-30.30

Dai­ly Report Card

• Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Both of my hypos didn’t play out. HYPO2 was the most like­ly one but didn’t get overex­tend­ed before it BD from excess area
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I man­aged well. I was only allowed to take 2 posi­tions because of my lack of sharp­ness today and I stick to that rule and didn’t go on tilt to try and force my way. Which is more like­ly to hap­pen when I’m tired and not sharp.
  • What did I do well?
    • Stick to my only 2 trades rule
  • What do I need to improve?
    • I need to have a bet­ter grip on my week­ends so that I feel more ener­gized com­ing into the mar­ket on Monday. 
    • This com­ing week­end I will restrict my social­iz­ing to what I did last week­end as well but extend it to both Fri­day and Saturday.
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • I can’t let social life get in the way of my dream to becom­ing a CPT
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Restrict myself when I am not at ‘peak’ performance
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Can’t think of any­thing oth­er than not going to bed ear­ly on week­ends. I have a good rou­tine dur­ing the week and I need to car­ry that over on the week­ends as well. Progress not perfection. 
  • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
    • 3

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.