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01222019 Trade Plan - Bear Market Trader
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01222019 Trade Plan

Daily Report Card

01222019 Trade Plan

01222019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeFriSatSunMonTue
-1/181/191/201/211/22
Beers night before071050
Time bed yesterday21:523:105:030:5823:07
woke up7:1410:4611:058:307:37
Hours sleep9:227:366:027:328:30
Awake-1:011:021:07-
REM-1:290:270:57-
Light-3:302:583:54-
Deep-1:361:351:34-
Sleep well?12131
Mela­tonin00000
Neg­a­tive thoughts?32222
Exer­cise yester(to)day21111
Grat­i­tude45544
Joy45544
Anger21111
Fear21121
Focus12223
Cof­fees today1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop morn­ing) 1 espres­so (half cup, afternoon)no cof­fee1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop)1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon1 TC morn­ing (1 scoop), 1TC after­noon (half)
Inter­mit­tent fastingyesnononono
Water L33333
Vit­a­minsyesnoyesyesyes
Cig­a­rettes0101000

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • Caught some­thing and been up many times last night going into the bath­room. Safe to say that I need to be extra care­ful today. 
    • The rea­son my Fit­bit doesn’t track my sleep is prob­a­bly relat­ed to the get­ting up or too rest­less sleep­ing as it did not track any­thing last night either. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel bet­ter than in the morn­ing but still not sharp
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Yes­ter­day the US had a hol­i­day so the US trad­ing ses­sion is not included
    • We start­ed off the AS with a drop to 53.70 area and the con­se­quent buy­ers com­ing in and caus­ing the imbal­ance that brought PA up Swing High of 54.30
    • Dur­ing the LS we saw anoth­er drop to 53.80/.70 (Val­ue area) and anoth­er attempt at a swing high but this time fail­ing and revers­ing at this same 54.30 area before drop­ping back to yet again the same area of 53.80 (val­ue)

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Wednes­day, Jan­u­ary 23rd
  • EIA report
    • Thurs­day, Jan­u­ary 24th
  • Yes­ter­day was a hol­i­day in the US so there might be some dif­fer­ent mar­ket behavior

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • Prev high 54.480
        • Prev low 53.572
      • What didn’t happen?
        • Even though we have been in a DT all day we haven’t been able to man­age to BD from prev low
      • Where do you think it should go?
        • We can see that momen­tum is set­tling down a bit and we just made a swing high at UKC lev­el and then dropped back into the KC
          • It could be that we will test the VWAP but that could mean we’d have to break prev low or VWAP needs to catch up on PA
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • Failed swing high back to prev high level
        • Drop to VWAP or 50MA and see a trend continuation
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Looks like val­ue can be found along the 53.70 level
        • And excess around the 54.25 level
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We are range bound between the val­ue and excess areas after we had a lev­el-chang­ing ral­ly yes­ter­day break­ing out from prev HTF swing high
          • We are now poten­tial­ly con­firm­ing that same lev­el as sup­port dur­ing AS
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • A swing high around excess area 
        • Rejec­tion of val­ue area

Trade Ideas

  • Hypo 1
    • We overex­tend into excess area 54.25 con­firm­ing this area as short term resis­tance before mak­ing a swing low
      • Short oppor­tu­ni­ty around excess area with prof­it tar­get at 53.75
  • Hypo 2
    • We BD from val­ue area / prev low
      • Long oppor­tu­ni­ty around 53 lev­el prof­it tar­get 53.60
  • Hypo 3
    • BO from excess area / prev high
      • Long around 54.50 prof­it tar­get 55 level

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • Lon­don just opened and before we opened we moved from the bot­tom of the val­ue area to the top and while we were at the bot­tom I took a con­ser­v­a­tive posi­tion because this would be in line with my HYPO1 
    • Spread is wide indi­cat­ing less liquidity
    • T1 win 7.2 ticks
    • Stalk­ing a pos­si­ble SR at the 5M LKC which would be in line with prev low rejection
      • Didn’t hap­pen
    • It looks like we might have a KC VWAP con­ver­gence going on on the LTF which then would mean my setups won’t arise.
    • We dropped from prev low to pos­si­ble next sup­port at 53.25
    • Stalk­ing my HYPO2 oppor­tu­ni­ty going long after a drop to 53.30 lev­el. Not quite as low as I hypoth­e­sized though but the chart is king
    • We have found short term sup­port at the 53.30 lev­el and might be look­ing to reverse
    • I’ll be look­ing for the third leg of the rever­sal pat­tern as my point of entry
    • I had an impor­tant per­son­al call today and wasn’t there to see HYPO2 play out. I’m also done for today.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 30M SRTC
        • What is the main trend?
          • Range bound
        • Where are we in the move?
          • Around sup­port lev­el of prev low and val­ue area
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • 5M showed a ral­ly up to top of val­ue area then pull back to bottom
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 10% of dai­ly risk
        • Entry: 53.701
    • SL
      • 53.586
    • TP
      • 54.140
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I felt calm dur­ing the trade
      • Cov­ered at 53.773 because I hit the UKC on the 5M
        • Win 7.2 ticks
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • 30M SRTT
        • What is the main trend?
          • We had been range bound but since today’s ses­sion we have been on a short term DT
          • Near HTF VWAP
        • Where are we in the move?
          • Pos­si­ble overex­tend­ed below the val­ue area
        • Is 5M confirming?
          • 5M is show­ing a big bull­ish can­dle at this lev­el but I am wait­ing for a small drop before I get in. After a big drop into 2.0 SD I should expect a 2nd drop into the same lev­el cre­at­ing the 2nd part of the rever­sal and then the con­se­quent 3rd before we actu­al­ly reverse.
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • I’m going to risk 30% of my dai­ly risk
        • Entry: 53.317
          • I got in with half the size I was will­ing to risk because it had dropped to prev lev­el of the poten­tial pat­tern and thought this was a good entry
    • SL
      • 53.167
    • TP
      • 53.290
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I will be look­ing to add to my posi­tion if the pat­tern pro­gress­es in my favor but it looks like it might not
      • Got stopped out at 53.172
        • Loss 14.5 ticks
      • But then re-entered since the pat­tern is actu­al­ly still valid
        • Got stopped out again at 53.135
          • Loss entry 53.248 loss 11.3 ticks

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • The first one yes. The oth­er two got stopped out.
  • P/L for the day
Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePrice
2019.01.22 09:48:25buy2wti53.70153.58654.142019.01.22 10:08:5453.7737.20
2019.01.22 12:34:15buy2wti53.31753.16753.4462019.01.22 12:44:0853.172-14.50
2019.01.22 12:45:22buy2wti53.24853.14853.4062019.01.22 13:01:4453.135-11.30
----------18.60

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • HYPO2 played out so I’m hap­py with that
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • Again because I was think­ing in per­cent­ages I was feel­ing fine dur­ing the trades mentally
      • How­ev­er, phys­i­cal­ly I was tired due to not being able to sleep last night because of feel­ing unwell
    • What did I do well?
      • Did fair­ly well on the assess­ment and then did well to stay calm dur­ing the trades. 
    • What do I need to improve?
      • I had an impor­tant per­son­al call come in and even though that turned out to be impor­tant, I could have tak­en the call later. 
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • Dur­ing trad­ing hours I should have com­plete radio silence. 
    • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
      • Keep doing mar­ket prep work and keep learn­ing from the com­mu­ni­ty on the par­tic­u­lars of CL
    • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
      • Get into posi­tions too early
        • After we BD from a tech­ni­cal lev­el the short-term direc­tion has changed and that means that my set­up turns into a fad­ing set­up and there­fore I need to be more cau­tious and wait for a more sig­nif­i­cant lev­el to get hit before I start get­ting inter­est­ed in enter­ing. How will I improve on this? I will give every tech­ni­cal lev­el a val­ue of impor­tance (like I did before) and keep this in mind when try­ing to trade of those lev­els. Under­stand that tak­ing the con­trar­i­an posi­tion is high risk and requires more patience. 
        • I will ana­lyze tak­en trades on the week­end to give me more insight on this. 
    • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
      • 2

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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