
23 Jan 01232019 Trade Plan
01232019 Trade Plan
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed |
- | 1/19 | 1/20 | 1/21 | 1/22 | 1/23 |
Beers night before | 7 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
Time bed yesterday | 3:10 | 5:03 | 0:58 | 23:07 | 0:22 |
woke up | 10:46 | 11:05 | 8:30 | 7:37 | 8:16 |
Hours sleep | 7:36 | 6:02 | 7:32 | 8:30 | 7:54 |
Awake | 1:01 | 1:02 | 1:07 | - | 1:04 |
REM | 1:29 | 0:27 | 0:57 | - | 2:10 |
Light | 3:30 | 2:58 | 3:54 | - | 3:33 |
Deep | 1:36 | 1:35 | 1:34 | - | 1:07 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Coffees today | no coffee | 1 turkish coffee (1 scoop) | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon | 1 TC morning (1 scoop), 1TC afternoon (half) | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | no | no | yes |
Water L | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | no | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I am always better in the middle of the week when I’ve had a day or two to bounce back from the weekend. My main goal for the next 3 months is to get my weekends under control. What does that mean ‘to get under control’? I will write a blog post on it this week.
- How do you feel?
- I feel good. Even though I slip up sometimes I feel I am still progressing towards my goal to become a CPT. Could it go faster? Sure. I’m a bit stubborn though. This journaling on my health is definitely helping seeing where I go wrong.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- Yesterday we held the excess area by starting AS off with a DT away from 54.30 level to then ultimately BD from value area and coming back up to test it around 53.75 level
- After testing the value area and failing it we continue the DT down during the session to 53 level where we have a small pullback 53.30 before NY opens
- Then NY BD from 30M 200MA and brings us further down to 52.10 level before trying to recover in the rest of the London session before that ends
- Afterwards we bounce off 52.30 level to continue up in a messy UT retracing the overall move back up to 30M 200MA area
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Today. Wednesday, January 23rd
- EIA report
- Thursday, January 24th
- Forecast ‑0.435M
- Thursday, January 24th
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Prev High 54.317
- Prev Low 52.069
- Where is the LIS?
- I’d say the line in the sand is the 53 area
- We seem to have bounced off this area before and then had a failed attempt before BO last week
- And now we BD yesterday so let’s see how the market reacts to this area
- What didn’t happen?
- I expected the market to roll over last week but that still hasn’t happened. The HTF 50MA has held up nicely so far. I do think the likeliness is increasing that we will BD from this 50MA in the short to medium term.
- Where do you think it should go?
- I think it could make a failed swing high before we roll over and make an attempt to BD from 50MA
- If not we might find ourselves in a range between 52 and 54 levels for the medium term
- I think it could make a failed swing high before we roll over and make an attempt to BD from 50MA
- Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
- Shorting around prev high failed swing high
- BO from LIS
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Excess area is around 53.50 area
- Value area is 52.30 area
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- We just had a big drop to 52.10 level so we might be balancing on the short to medium term
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- BD from LIS
- BO from LIS and overextend into excess area then roll over
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- AS bounced and rejected 52.70 level hard and has traded higher to 53.20 level
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1
- BO from LIS to overextend into excess area then roll over
- Short opportunity 53.50 area
- PT around 53.15
- Stretch PT around 52.50 area
- Short opportunity 53.50 area
- BO from LIS to overextend into excess area then roll over
- Hypo 2
- BD from LIS to test value area
- Short opportunity 52.90
- PT around 52.70
- Stretch PT around 52.40
- Short opportunity 52.90
- BD from LIS to test value area
- Hypo 3
- BO from LIS and BO from excess area and hold this level to continue short-term UT
- Long opportunity 53.50
- PT around 54.10
- Long opportunity 53.50
- BO from LIS and BO from excess area and hold this level to continue short-term UT
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by sticking to playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- I missed the first half hour of the session
- It seems HYPO1 is in play but got in play before LS opened
- We are now testing the LIS again
- KC on LTF is up but is widening
- PA just bounced off 30M 50MA and is at 30M 200MA and 200MA is trending up but 50MA is trending down
- Spread is wider than usual
- PA seems erratic a bit and I should be extra cautious. I’m going to wait for the market show signs of a confirmed BD or BO from LIS before I reevaluated getting in.
- PA had just shot up to 53.20 and then immediately got absorbed by sellers back down to 53 level
- Looks like we might BD from LIS because we just had a big drop
- Look for PB to LTF VWAP for a possible short opportunity
- We could be looking at a HYPO1 with stretched profit target playing out here
- I’m going to wait for some consolidation before I consider getting in
- We reversed back up into the LIS area
- Now stalking a VWAP rejection so that I could short here but I think since the move is very sharp we might see a break of VWAP
- Which is happening right now
- Now stalking a VWAP rejection so that I could short here but I think since the move is very sharp we might see a break of VWAP
- I think I’m not going to take any more trades today
- T2
- I scratched the position since it didn’t go down for me fast enough
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- What is the main trend? Look at KC
- Been in an UT since the bounce off 52 level yesterday
- Currently in a pullback to LIS with signs of rejection
- Where are we as opposed to the value and excess areas?
- At the LIS which seems to be rejecting
- Are we at a technical level?
- Above 30M 200MA and 50MA
- What is the main trend? Look at KC
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- Big rejection of 53 level which is the bottom of the LIS area
- What risk am I going to put on?
- About 13% of Daily risk
- Entry: 53.126
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 52.976
- TP
- 53.45
- Trade Management
- Covered at LTF VWAP since this is a new setup for me and wanted to pocket some profits. Also PA felt as if buyers were drying up around the 53.13 level every time we hit it so felt there should have been a move before and it didn’t happen.
- Covered at 53.158
- Win 3.2 ticks
- Happy I covered when I did because PA dropped down to 53 level
- Covered at 53.158
- Covered at LTF VWAP since this is a new setup for me and wanted to pocket some profits. Also PA felt as if buyers were drying up around the 53.13 level every time we hit it so felt there should have been a move before and it didn’t happen.
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- What is the main trend? Look at KC
- We were in an UT but have hit the 30M UKC and then formed a very bearish candle at the excess area of 53.50
- Where are we as opposed to the value and excess areas?
- Just under the excess area
- Are we at a technical level?
- UKC and Excess area
- What is the main trend? Look at KC
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- Bigger bodied bearish candle after the last rally candle into overextended 2.0 SD
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 13% of daily risk but I might add to position
- Entry: 53.468
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 53.568
- TP
- 53.324
- Trade Management
- We haven’t broken the LTF UKC yet
- There was a lot of indecisive candles of about 25 minutes so I scratched the trade at 53.468
- We haven’t broken the LTF UKC yet
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- T1
- I took a profit at the VWAP and if I hadn’t I would have gotten stopped out
- T2
- Scratched and if I hadn’t I would have gotten stopped out
- T1
- P/L for the day
Open Time | Type | Size | Item | Price | S / L | T / P | Close Time | Price | - |
2019.01.23 13:02:14 | sell | 2 | wti | 53.468 | 53.551 | 53.301 | 2019.01.23 13:29:43 | 53.468 | 0.00 |
2019.01.23 10:50:54 | buy | 2 | wti | 53.126 | 52.976 | 53.449 | 2019.01.23 11:06:36 | 53.158 | 3.20 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.20 |
Daily Report Card
- Define winning
- Perform well by sticking to playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Moderately accurate
- HYPO1 played out, sort of. We made a move below LIS before eventually reversing and blasting through LIS and then hitting overextended area into excess
- However, we didn’t have the reversal afterwards. At least not during the LS, perhaps during NY
- HYPO1 played out, sort of. We made a move below LIS before eventually reversing and blasting through LIS and then hitting overextended area into excess
- Moderately accurate
- How well did I follow my process?
- I stuck with my HYPO1 and the trading plan I envisioned.
- When I saw an opportunity come up I stalked it and found an OK entry
- When later on I spotted no opportunity fitting my criteria I stayed out of it
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- Again, this thing with percentages is definitely making me feel good within a trade. Especially combined with a trade taken as part of my plan
- What did I do well?
- I did well to follow my process and had a moderately accurate view of the market. Then during the trading session I noticed PA moving very fast and erratic which made me stay out and then after the swing high it behaved very sluggish which made me feel like staying out as well. The speed of the market is important and when the move didn’t happen as fast as I thought it would I scratched it.
- I also did well to ‘read the tape’ when I saw that PA didn’t want to move and break the VWAP
- I improved my checklist before entering a trade
- What do I need to improve?
- Improve the way I designate areas to be value or excess areas
- There can be more area of each as I realized today
- Improve the way I designate areas to be value or excess areas
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- The speed of the market is part of its character and thus important. When the market doesn’t ‘feel’ right be extra cautious
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Trade less by sticking to my trading plan and not chase the market
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Predicting the market. Remember. The market is governed by randomness and my ability to find higher probabilities in certain areas
- Grade yourself 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
- 4
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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