Bear Market Trader | Trade Journal on day trading the WTI crude oil market
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01242019 Trade Plan

Daily Report Card

01242019 Trade Plan

01242019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeSunMonTueWedThu
Beers night before105022
Time bed yesterday5:030:5823:070:2223:42
woke up11:058:307:378:168:29
Hours sleep6:027:328:307:548:47
Sleep well?13134
Neg­a­tive thoughts?22211
Exer­cise yester(to)day11134
Cof­fees today1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop)1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon1 TC morn­ing (1 scoop), 1TC after­noon (half)1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon1 TC morn­ing (1 scp), 1 Espres­so (half)
Inter­mit­tent fastingnonononoyes
Water L33333

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I feel bet­ter rest­ed now that I got some more sleep. I think over­all I am pro­gress­ing. I walk more but still need to actu­al­ly work out but I don’t since I fig­ure things more relat­ed to trad­ing are more impor­tant. I know that when I am phys­i­cal­ly in a bet­ter shape that I will per­form bet­ter in trad­ing. Still work in process. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good but might have drank a lit­tle too much cof­fee since I feel a lit­tle bit hyper. When I sleep well I should watch my caf­feine intake more.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 5

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • We start­ed the day by swing­ing around the LIS at 53 lev­el before fak­ing a BD and ral­ly­ing up instead to excess level
    • We can see that yesterday’s excess lev­el has held at 53.50 lev­el and after­wards we broke the LIS at 53 lev­el and even­tu­al­ly drop to val­ue area at 52.30 lev­el and even test prev low at 52 

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • 6.550M build
  • EIA report
    • Fore­cast ‑0.042M
    • Report com­ing out today

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High 53.676
        • Low 51.880
      • Where is the LIS?
        • I think the LIS hasn’t changed and is still around the 53 area
        • How­ev­er the prev low at 51.90 lev­el seems to be sig­nif­i­cant as well
      • What didn’t happen?
        • I hypoth­e­sized that we’d make a failed swing high before rolling over into low­er lev­els and this has hap­pened. We might see a con­tin­u­a­tion here though and drop further
      • Where do you think it should go?
        • I think there’s a high­er pos­si­bil­i­ty we might final­ly see that BD from 51.90 lev­el on the HTF
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • A failed swing high into LIS and then a BD from prev low
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Still the same as yesterday
          • Val­ue around 52.30
          • Excess around 53.50
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We are still in a range but could poten­tial­ly be break­ing that today to the downside
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • A hold of val­ue area 52.30 could make me want to get in long if we hit overex­tend­ed first
        • Overex­ten­sion into LIS 53 area could cre­ate short opportunities
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • AS seems to have formed a Tri­an­gu­lar com­pres­sion using the val­ue area as support

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • Overex­ten­sion into LIS 53 lev­el to LIS hold­ing and rolling over
      • Entry around 52.90
      • PT around
        • 52.40
        • Stretch 52.05
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • BD from Val­ue area
      • Entry around 52.10
      • PT around
        • 51.90
        • Stretch 51.40 and then 51.20
  • Hypo 3 Long into HYPO1
    • Overex­tend down into val­ue area to bounce up to LIS and then roll over
    • Entry and PT same as HYPO1

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • A lot of big­ger bod­ied can­dles at the val­ue area and we just made a move high­er before Lon­don open
    • T1 at the open win 7.9 ticks
    • It could be pos­si­ble that HYPO1 is start get­ting in play and also noticed that I might look for an entry low­er around 52.70 instead of 52.90
    • Cur­rent­ly the val­ue area is show­ing a lot of sell­ing going on it seems. It’s my first time look­ing at the mar­ket pro­file so I am not going base any deci­sions of this.
    • We might be look­ing to BD from val­ue area
    • Stalk­ing a pos­si­ble long at val­ue area  52.30
    • It could be that instead of a long oppor­tu­ni­ty we might head a lit­tle high­er into LTF VWAP / 50MA before we head back down again
    • T2 made a mis­take set­ting stop loss and took a loss
    • T3 entered again same level
    • HYPO1 is in play

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • What is the main trend? Look at KC
          • Bal­anc­ing in val­ue area
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue and excess areas?
          • In the cen­ter so we might be range bound in our trad­ing and thus I buy low sell high
        • Are we at a tech­ni­cal level?
          • Above the val­ue area
          • Under the TTF VWAP look­ing to pos­si­bly BO
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • Big­ger bod­ied can­dles indi­cat­ing a range bound motion also because we’re still in the val­ue area
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 8% of dai­ly risk since I usu­al­ly don’t trade the open and was pret­ty sure that if we didn’t go up after I took the low I was wrong
        • Entry: 52.419
    • SL
      • 52.332
    • TP
      • 52.530
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at 52.498 since that was the pre­vi­ous swing high with­in the val­ue area
      • Win 7.9 ticks
  • T2
    • Made a mis­take and slipped up on set­ting the SL and got tak­en out
  • T3
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • What is the main trend? Look at KC
          • Bal­anc­ing
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue and excess areas?
          • Below the LIS and 30M 50MA
        • Are we at a tech­ni­cal level?
          • 50MA
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • LTF showed a doji can­dle after a sud­den ral­ly up
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 30% of my dai­ly risk
        • Entry: 52.702
    • SL
      • 52.986
    • TP
      • 52.416
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I added anoth­er short with con­ser­v­a­tive siz­ing at the next inde­ci­sion can­dle which was also at the 30M 50MA
      • Then added anoth­er at the bot­tom of the LIS but I think this is going to go against me
      • It didn’t go against me but I did take some loss­es because I thought it would go against me and closed off the trades I had open the longest. 

  • T4
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue and excess areas?
          • DT into val­ue area and below it and retraced into mid­point of the val­ue area
        • Are we at a tech­ni­cal level?
          • Below val­ue area pos­si­ble prof­it tar­get prev low
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • Big move down and small retrace­ments up
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 15% of dai­ly risk
        • Entry: 52.241
    • SL
      • 52.391
    • TP
      • 51.91
    • Trade Man­age­ment

    Trade Review

    • P/L for the day
    Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticks
    2019.01.24 11:57:26sell2wti52.83453.07452.5622019.01.24 12:31:3652.7716.30
    2019.01.24 11:18:37sell2wti52.70253.04552.3582019.01.24 12:29:4552.798-9.60
    2019.01.24 11:25:29sell2wti52.67253.10152.3972019.01.24 12:29:3652.799-12.70
    2019.01.24 11:17:28sell2wti52.69752.75652.5152019.01.24 11:17:5652.759-6.20
    2019.01.24 10:01:06buy2wti52.41952.33252.532019.01.24 10:05:3652.4987.90

    Dai­ly Report Card

    • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
      • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
        • I did good on this front. HYPO3 was the one that was in play
          • Hypo 3 Long into HYPO1
            • Overex­tend down into val­ue area to bounce up to LIS and then roll over
            • Entry and PT same as HYPO1
          • How­ev­er, I wasn’t able to cap­i­tal­ize on the long oppor­tu­ni­ty because I was doubt­ing myself and I don’t know why. I felt like it could have anoth­er rejec­tion can­dle before it would go up but then it had already start­ed to go up. This brings me back to my rule of just get­ting in when my set­up aris­es and not over­think the trade. Remem­ber, give in to the ran­dom­ness and the only thing you can do is set high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty trades
      • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
        • I did fair­ly well on this but when I put a wide stop this time I felt more uneasy when the trade was first going against me but I stick with it and final­ly end­ed up almost scratch­ing the trade which in hind­sight I maybe shouldn’t have done since it did even­tu­al­ly go my way.
      • What did I do well?
        • I am doing well on the mar­ket assessment 
      • What do I need to improve?
        • After doing well on the mar­ket assess­ment I should feel con­fi­dent in tak­ing trades that fol­low a cer­tain hypo. I need to grow more con­fi­dence in tak­ing these trades and that means more back­test­ing and watch­ing screen record­ings. Under­stand what dri­ves the trades with your cur­rent knowl­edge of auc­tion the­o­ry. Bring it all together. 
          • I have select­ed high­er R/R play­book setups and cut out the low R/R and I’m going to review them to see what the mar­ket con­text is based on what I’ve learned recent­ly regard­ing auc­tion theory
        • Also my exe­cu­tion needs to improve. I set a trade and then made a mis­take with the stop loss and got stopped out. Such an amateur. 
          • I don’t need to be watch­ing the screen the whole time. I feel this takes away from my abil­i­ty to focus when it actu­al­ly mat­ters. I am using price alerts but I should use them bet­ter and actu­al­ly be more focused when my alerts go off.
      • What’s one thing you learned today?
        • It is one thing to get the mar­ket assess­ment right but it is a whole dif­fer­ent game actu­al­ly being able to trade it
      • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
        • Take risks when set­up aris­es. You know how to do this. Remem­ber they’re cal­cu­lat­ed risks.
      • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
        • Hes­i­tate to pull the trigger
      • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
        • 1
          • Assess­ing the mar­ket with­out great exe­cu­tion is not the way to become a CPT


    Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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