
24 Jan 01242019 Trade Plan
01242019 Trade Plan
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu |
- | 1/20 | 1/21 | 1/22 | 1/23 | 1/24 |
Beers night before | 10 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Time bed yesterday | 5:03 | 0:58 | 23:07 | 0:22 | 23:42 |
woke up | 11:05 | 8:30 | 7:37 | 8:16 | 8:29 |
Hours sleep | 6:02 | 7:32 | 8:30 | 7:54 | 8:47 |
Awake | 1:02 | 1:07 | - | 1:04 | 1:11 |
REM | 0:27 | 0:57 | - | 2:10 | 1:20 |
Light | 2:58 | 3:54 | - | 3:33 | 5:06 |
Deep | 1:35 | 1:34 | - | 1:07 | 1:10 |
Sleep well? | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Gratitude | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Coffees today | 1 turkish coffee (1 scoop) | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon | 1 TC morning (1 scoop), 1TC afternoon (half) | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon | 1 TC morning (1 scp), 1 Espresso (half) |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | no | no | yes |
Water L | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I feel better rested now that I got some more sleep. I think overall I am progressing. I walk more but still need to actually work out but I don’t since I figure things more related to trading are more important. I know that when I am physically in a better shape that I will perform better in trading. Still work in process.
- How do you feel?
- I feel good but might have drank a little too much coffee since I feel a little bit hyper. When I sleep well I should watch my caffeine intake more.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 5
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- We started the day by swinging around the LIS at 53 level before faking a BD and rallying up instead to excess level
- We can see that yesterday’s excess level has held at 53.50 level and afterwards we broke the LIS at 53 level and eventually drop to value area at 52.30 level and even test prev low at 52
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- 6.550M build
- EIA report
- Forecast ‑0.042M
- Report coming out today
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 53.676
- Low 51.880
- Where is the LIS?
- I think the LIS hasn’t changed and is still around the 53 area
- However the prev low at 51.90 level seems to be significant as well
- What didn’t happen?
- I hypothesized that we’d make a failed swing high before rolling over into lower levels and this has happened. We might see a continuation here though and drop further
- Where do you think it should go?
- I think there’s a higher possibility we might finally see that BD from 51.90 level on the HTF
- Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
- A failed swing high into LIS and then a BD from prev low
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Still the same as yesterday
- Value around 52.30
- Excess around 53.50
- Still the same as yesterday
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- We are still in a range but could potentially be breaking that today to the downside
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- A hold of value area 52.30 could make me want to get in long if we hit overextended first
- Overextension into LIS 53 area could create short opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- AS seems to have formed a Triangular compression using the value area as support
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- Overextension into LIS 53 level to LIS holding and rolling over
- Entry around 52.90
- PT around
- 52.40
- Stretch 52.05
- Overextension into LIS 53 level to LIS holding and rolling over
- Hypo 2 Short
- BD from Value area
- Entry around 52.10
- PT around
- 51.90
- Stretch 51.40 and then 51.20
- BD from Value area
- Hypo 3 Long into HYPO1
- Overextend down into value area to bounce up to LIS and then roll over
- Entry and PT same as HYPO1
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by sticking to playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- A lot of bigger bodied candles at the value area and we just made a move higher before London open
- T1 at the open win 7.9 ticks
- It could be possible that HYPO1 is start getting in play and also noticed that I might look for an entry lower around 52.70 instead of 52.90
- Currently the value area is showing a lot of selling going on it seems. It’s my first time looking at the market profile so I am not going base any decisions of this.
- We might be looking to BD from value area
- Stalking a possible long at value area 52.30
- It could be that instead of a long opportunity we might head a little higher into LTF VWAP / 50MA before we head back down again
- T2 made a mistake setting stop loss and took a loss
- T3 entered again same level
- HYPO1 is in play
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- What is the main trend? Look at KC
- Balancing in value area
- Where are we as opposed to the value and excess areas?
- In the center so we might be range bound in our trading and thus I buy low sell high
- Are we at a technical level?
- Above the value area
- Under the TTF VWAP looking to possibly BO
- What is the main trend? Look at KC
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- Bigger bodied candles indicating a range bound motion also because we’re still in the value area
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 8% of daily risk since I usually don’t trade the open and was pretty sure that if we didn’t go up after I took the low I was wrong
- Entry: 52.419
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 52.332
- TP
- 52.530
- Trade Management
- Covered at 52.498 since that was the previous swing high within the value area
- Win 7.9 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Made a mistake and slipped up on setting the SL and got taken out
- T3
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- What is the main trend? Look at KC
- Balancing
- Where are we as opposed to the value and excess areas?
- Below the LIS and 30M 50MA
- Are we at a technical level?
- 50MA
- What is the main trend? Look at KC
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- LTF showed a doji candle after a sudden rally up
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 30% of my daily risk
- Entry: 52.702
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 52.986
- TP
- 52.416
- Trade Management
- I added another short with conservative sizing at the next indecision candle which was also at the 30M 50MA
- Then added another at the bottom of the LIS but I think this is going to go against me
- It didn’t go against me but I did take some losses because I thought it would go against me and closed off the trades I had open the longest.
- Why? What do I see?
- T4
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value and excess areas?
- DT into value area and below it and retraced into midpoint of the value area
- Are we at a technical level?
- Below value area possible profit target prev low
- Where are we as opposed to the value and excess areas?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- Big move down and small retracements up
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 15% of daily risk
- Entry: 52.241
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 52.391
- TP
- 51.91
- Trade Management
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- P/L for the day
Open Time | Type | Size | Item | Price | S / L | T / P | Close Time | Price | P/L ticks |
2019.01.24 11:57:26 | sell | 2 | wti | 52.834 | 53.074 | 52.562 | 2019.01.24 12:31:36 | 52.771 | 6.30 |
2019.01.24 11:18:37 | sell | 2 | wti | 52.702 | 53.045 | 52.358 | 2019.01.24 12:29:45 | 52.798 | -9.60 |
2019.01.24 11:25:29 | sell | 2 | wti | 52.672 | 53.101 | 52.397 | 2019.01.24 12:29:36 | 52.799 | -12.70 |
2019.01.24 11:17:28 | sell | 2 | wti | 52.697 | 52.756 | 52.515 | 2019.01.24 11:17:56 | 52.759 | -6.20 |
2019.01.24 10:01:06 | buy | 2 | wti | 52.419 | 52.332 | 52.53 | 2019.01.24 10:05:36 | 52.498 | 7.90 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -14.30 |
Daily Report Card
- Perform well by sticking to playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- I did good on this front. HYPO3 was the one that was in play
- Hypo 3 Long into HYPO1
- Overextend down into value area to bounce up to LIS and then roll over
- Entry and PT same as HYPO1
- However, I wasn’t able to capitalize on the long opportunity because I was doubting myself and I don’t know why. I felt like it could have another rejection candle before it would go up but then it had already started to go up. This brings me back to my rule of just getting in when my setup arises and not overthink the trade. Remember, give in to the randomness and the only thing you can do is set higher probability trades
- Hypo 3 Long into HYPO1
- I did good on this front. HYPO3 was the one that was in play
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I did fairly well on this but when I put a wide stop this time I felt more uneasy when the trade was first going against me but I stick with it and finally ended up almost scratching the trade which in hindsight I maybe shouldn’t have done since it did eventually go my way.
- What did I do well?
- I am doing well on the market assessment
- What do I need to improve?
- After doing well on the market assessment I should feel confident in taking trades that follow a certain hypo. I need to grow more confidence in taking these trades and that means more backtesting and watching screen recordings. Understand what drives the trades with your current knowledge of auction theory. Bring it all together.
- I have selected higher R/R playbook setups and cut out the low R/R and I’m going to review them to see what the market context is based on what I’ve learned recently regarding auction theory
- Also my execution needs to improve. I set a trade and then made a mistake with the stop loss and got stopped out. Such an amateur.
- I don’t need to be watching the screen the whole time. I feel this takes away from my ability to focus when it actually matters. I am using price alerts but I should use them better and actually be more focused when my alerts go off.
- After doing well on the market assessment I should feel confident in taking trades that follow a certain hypo. I need to grow more confidence in taking these trades and that means more backtesting and watching screen recordings. Understand what drives the trades with your current knowledge of auction theory. Bring it all together.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- It is one thing to get the market assessment right but it is a whole different game actually being able to trade it
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Take risks when setup arises. You know how to do this. Remember they’re calculated risks.
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Hesitate to pull the trigger
- Grade yourself 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
- 1
- Assessing the market without great execution is not the way to become a CPT
- 1
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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