01242019 Trade Plan

24 Jan 01242019 Trade Plan

01242019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu
-	1/20	1/21	1/22	1/23	1/24
Beers night before	10	5	0	2	2
Time bed yesterday	5:03	0:58	23:07	0:22	23:42
woke up	11:05	8:30	7:37	8:16	8:29
Hours sleep	6:02	7:32	8:30	7:54	8:47
Awake	1:02	1:07	-	1:04	1:11
REM	0:27	0:57	-	2:10	1:20
Light	2:58	3:54	-	3:33	5:06
Deep	1:35	1:34	-	1:07	1:10
Sleep well?	1	3	1	3	4
Mela­tonin	0	0	0	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	2	2	2	1	1
Exer­cise yester(to)day	1	1	1	3	4
Grat­i­tude	5	4	4	5	5
Joy	5	4	4	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	1	2	1	1	1
Focus	2	2	3	4	4
Cof­fees today	1 turk­ish cof­fee (1 scoop)	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon	1 TC morn­ing (1 scoop), 1TC after­noon (half)	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon	1 TC morn­ing (1 scp), 1 Espres­so (half)
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	no	no	no	yes
Water L	3	3	3	3	3
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	10	0	0	0	5

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • I feel bet­ter rest­ed now that I got some more sleep. I think over­all I am pro­gress­ing. I walk more but still need to actu­al­ly work out but I don’t since I fig­ure things more relat­ed to trad­ing are more impor­tant. I know that when I am phys­i­cal­ly in a bet­ter shape that I will per­form bet­ter in trad­ing. Still work in process. 
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good but might have drank a lit­tle too much cof­fee since I feel a lit­tle bit hyper. When I sleep well I should watch my caf­feine intake more.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 5

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
  • We start­ed the day by swing­ing around the LIS at 53 lev­el before fak­ing a BD and ral­ly­ing up instead to excess level
  • We can see that yesterday’s excess lev­el has held at 53.50 lev­el and after­wards we broke the LIS at 53 lev­el and even­tu­al­ly drop to val­ue area at 52.30 lev­el and even test prev low at 52 

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • 6.550M build
• EIA report
  • Fore­cast ‑0.042M
  • Report com­ing out today

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
      • High 53.676
      • Low 51.880
    • Where is the LIS?
      • I think the LIS hasn’t changed and is still around the 53 area
      • How­ev­er the prev low at 51.90 lev­el seems to be sig­nif­i­cant as well
    • What didn’t happen?
      • I hypoth­e­sized that we’d make a failed swing high before rolling over into low­er lev­els and this has hap­pened. We might see a con­tin­u­a­tion here though and drop further
    • Where do you think it should go?
      • I think there’s a high­er pos­si­bil­i­ty we might final­ly see that BD from 51.90 lev­el on the HTF
    • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
      • A failed swing high into LIS and then a BD from prev low
• TTF
  • Dialling in on opportunities
    • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
      • Still the same as yesterday
        • Val­ue around 52.30
        • Excess around 53.50
    • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
      • We are still in a range but could poten­tial­ly be break­ing that today to the downside
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • A hold of val­ue area 52.30 could make me want to get in long if we hit overex­tend­ed first
      • Overex­ten­sion into LIS 53 area could cre­ate short opportunities
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • AS seems to have formed a Tri­an­gu­lar com­pres­sion using the val­ue area as support

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • Overex­ten­sion into LIS 53 lev­el to LIS hold­ing and rolling over
    • Entry around 52.90
    • PT around
      • 52.40
      • Stretch 52.05
• Hypo 2 Short
  • BD from Val­ue area
    • Entry around 52.10
    • PT around
      • 51.90
      • Stretch 51.40 and then 51.20
• Hypo 3 Long into HYPO1
  • Overex­tend down into val­ue area to bounce up to LIS and then roll over
  • Entry and PT same as HYPO1

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • A lot of big­ger bod­ied can­dles at the val­ue area and we just made a move high­er before Lon­don open
  • T1 at the open win 7.9 ticks
  • It could be pos­si­ble that HYPO1 is start get­ting in play and also noticed that I might look for an entry low­er around 52.70 instead of 52.90
  • Cur­rent­ly the val­ue area is show­ing a lot of sell­ing going on it seems. It’s my first time look­ing at the mar­ket pro­file so I am not going base any deci­sions of this.
  • We might be look­ing to BD from val­ue area
  • Stalk­ing a pos­si­ble long at val­ue area  52.30
  • It could be that instead of a long oppor­tu­ni­ty we might head a lit­tle high­er into LTF VWAP / 50MA before we head back down again
  • T2 made a mis­take set­ting stop loss and took a loss
  • T3 entered again same level
  • HYPO1 is in play

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • What is the main trend? Look at KC
        • Bal­anc­ing in val­ue area
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue and excess areas?
        • In the cen­ter so we might be range bound in our trad­ing and thus I buy low sell high
      • Are we at a tech­ni­cal level?
        • Above the val­ue area
        • Under the TTF VWAP look­ing to pos­si­bly BO
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • Big­ger bod­ied can­dles indi­cat­ing a range bound motion also because we’re still in the val­ue area
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 8% of dai­ly risk since I usu­al­ly don’t trade the open and was pret­ty sure that if we didn’t go up after I took the low I was wrong
      • Entry: 52.419
  • SL
    • 52.332
  • TP
    • 52.530
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at 52.498 since that was the pre­vi­ous swing high with­in the val­ue area
    • Win 7.9 ticks

• T2
  • Made a mis­take and slipped up on set­ting the SL and got tak­en out

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • What is the main trend? Look at KC
        • Bal­anc­ing
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue and excess areas?
        • Below the LIS and 30M 50MA
      • Are we at a tech­ni­cal level?
        • 50MA
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • LTF showed a doji can­dle after a sud­den ral­ly up
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 30% of my dai­ly risk
      • Entry: 52.702
  • SL
    • 52.986
  • TP
    • 52.416
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I added anoth­er short with con­ser­v­a­tive siz­ing at the next inde­ci­sion can­dle which was also at the 30M 50MA
    • Then added anoth­er at the bot­tom of the LIS but I think this is going to go against me
    • It didn’t go against me but I did take some loss­es because I thought it would go against me and closed off the trades I had open the longest. 

• T4
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue and excess areas?
        • DT into val­ue area and below it and retraced into mid­point of the val­ue area
      • Are we at a tech­ni­cal level?
        • Below val­ue area pos­si­ble prof­it tar­get prev low
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • Big move down and small retrace­ments up
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 15% of dai­ly risk
      • Entry: 52.241
  • SL
    • 52.391
  • TP
    • 51.91
  • Trade Man­age­ment

Trade Review

• P/L for the day

Open Time	Type	Size	Item	Price	S / L	T / P	Close Time	Price	P/L ticks
2019.01.24 11:57:26	sell	2	wti	52.834	53.074	52.562	2019.01.24 12:31:36	52.771	6.30
2019.01.24 11:18:37	sell	2	wti	52.702	53.045	52.358	2019.01.24 12:29:45	52.798	-9.60
2019.01.24 11:25:29	sell	2	wti	52.672	53.101	52.397	2019.01.24 12:29:36	52.799	-12.70
2019.01.24 11:17:28	sell	2	wti	52.697	52.756	52.515	2019.01.24 11:17:56	52.759	-6.20
2019.01.24 10:01:06	buy	2	wti	52.419	52.332	52.53	2019.01.24 10:05:36	52.498	7.90
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-14.30

Dai­ly Report Card

• Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • I did good on this front. HYPO3 was the one that was in play
      • Hypo 3 Long into HYPO1
        • Overex­tend down into val­ue area to bounce up to LIS and then roll over
        • Entry and PT same as HYPO1
      • How­ev­er, I wasn’t able to cap­i­tal­ize on the long oppor­tu­ni­ty because I was doubt­ing myself and I don’t know why. I felt like it could have anoth­er rejec­tion can­dle before it would go up but then it had already start­ed to go up. This brings me back to my rule of just get­ting in when my set­up aris­es and not over­think the trade. Remem­ber, give in to the ran­dom­ness and the only thing you can do is set high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty trades
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I did fair­ly well on this but when I put a wide stop this time I felt more uneasy when the trade was first going against me but I stick with it and final­ly end­ed up almost scratch­ing the trade which in hind­sight I maybe shouldn’t have done since it did even­tu­al­ly go my way.
  • What did I do well?
    • I am doing well on the mar­ket assessment 
  • What do I need to improve?
    • After doing well on the mar­ket assess­ment I should feel con­fi­dent in tak­ing trades that fol­low a cer­tain hypo. I need to grow more con­fi­dence in tak­ing these trades and that means more back­test­ing and watch­ing screen record­ings. Under­stand what dri­ves the trades with your cur­rent knowl­edge of auc­tion the­o­ry. Bring it all together. 
      • I have select­ed high­er R/R play­book setups and cut out the low R/R and I’m going to review them to see what the mar­ket con­text is based on what I’ve learned recent­ly regard­ing auc­tion theory
    • Also my exe­cu­tion needs to improve. I set a trade and then made a mis­take with the stop loss and got stopped out. Such an amateur. 
      • I don’t need to be watch­ing the screen the whole time. I feel this takes away from my abil­i­ty to focus when it actu­al­ly mat­ters. I am using price alerts but I should use them bet­ter and actu­al­ly be more focused when my alerts go off.
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • It is one thing to get the mar­ket assess­ment right but it is a whole dif­fer­ent game actu­al­ly being able to trade it
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Take risks when set­up aris­es. You know how to do this. Remem­ber they’re cal­cu­lat­ed risks.
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Hes­i­tate to pull the trigger
  • Grade your­self 1 to 5 (5 being the best)
    • 1
      • Assess­ing the mar­ket with­out great exe­cu­tion is not the way to become a CPT

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.