
25 Jan 01252019 Trade Plan
01252019 Trade Plan
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri |
- | 1/21 | 1/22 | 1/23 | 1/24 | 1/25 |
Beers night before | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Time bed yesterday | 0:58 | 23:07 | 0:22 | 23:42 | 0:28 |
woke up | 8:30 | 7:37 | 8:16 | 8:29 | 8:46 |
Hours sleep | 7:32 | 8:30 | 7:54 | 8:47 | 8:18 |
Awake | 1:07 | - | 1:04 | 1:11 | 1:17 |
REM | 0:57 | - | 2:10 | 1:20 | 1:47 |
Light | 3:54 | - | 3:33 | 5:06 | 3:59 |
Deep | 1:34 | - | 1:07 | 1:10 | 1:25 |
Sleep well? | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Gratitude | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Fear | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon | 1 TC morning (1 scoop), 1TC afternoon (half) | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon | 1 TC morning (1 scp), 1 Espresso (half) | 1 espresso spread over 1 hours afternoon |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | no | no | no |
Water L | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I woke up today in what I think is the wrong sleep cycle which made me feel groggy for a few hours. Even though I slept enough hours and and my deep sleep has improved.
- How do you feel?
- Now I feel good but it took a few hours. I wish there was a way to have the Fitbit wake me up during the right sleep cycle. I’ll look into this some more.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- Yesterday during the AS we started off testing the 52.70 level first with a double top before dropping to value area 52.30 and testing this level several times
- When London opened we had a high momentum test of the value area and reversed quickly into new highs touching the LIS 52.90 level before slowly dropping back to value area again forming a double bottom around NY open and we moved back up to the LIS eventually BO from there to 53.40 level (which is near the excess area)
- Then we basically started ranging between 53.10 to 53.40 for the remainder of the session with one spike into excess area that got smacked down and then a spike down from 53.10 that got upheld
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Build of 6.550M
- EIA report
- Build of 7.970M
- Both reports seem to somewhat agree which is a bit unusual
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 53.505
- Low 52.122
- Where is the LIS?
- 52.90 area still
- What didn’t happen?
- We failed to make a swing high over 54.30
- Where do you think it should go?
- If we can hold the current excess area at 54.05 area we’ll roll over and test the LIS at 52.90 area with a potential stop at prev low 53.505 first
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- 52.30 area near prev low has shown buyers coming in
- 53.95 area looks like where sellers have come in
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- We started a UT on the short to medium term and have broken prev high
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- If we fail to hold the excess area that could be a good shorting opportunity down into prev low and stretch target at LIS
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- AS continued the consolidation of yesterday’s rally and then continued the rally up through the prev high to just below the excess area
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- Overextend over the excess area and then roll over to BD from excess area
- PT prev low at 53.505
- Stretched target at previous consolidation level of 53.20 above the LIS
- Overextend over the excess area and then roll over to BD from excess area
- Hypo 2 Long
- Fail excess area and BO from this 53.95 level
- PT around 54.50 (prev swing high)
- Stretched target around 55.20
- Fail excess area and BO from this 53.95 level
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by EXECUTING my playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- After London opened we started what looks like a move down to prev low so let’s see what PA does around that level
- T1 win 13.5 ticks up 12%
- PA isn’t really moving
- I was thinking that HYPO1 could actually be in play since the excess area I designated is 10 ticks above the LTF VWAP where we seem to have reversed but since that wasn’t in overextended area I didn’t look to trade it and I won’t since it’s not part of my playbook
- It looks though that was the big play of the session since we dropped to below the prev high
- Which is OK since I did follow my rules
- It looks though that was the big play of the session since we dropped to below the prev high
- We are in a DT so I should only be looking for shorts unless this prev high can hold and we see a reversal pattern
- We seem to have BD from prev high
- Could this mean that after a big bull/bear run my setup doesn’t catch the big moves? I would have to do some more backtesting on this.
- If I would have gotten in I would have done so at the retesting of the prev high CAR which was also the LTF LKC and VWAP
- Entry would have been 53.445 with a 36 spread would be 53.409
- SL would have been 53.55
- TP 53.10
- R15R30
- I would have made 30 ticks on this trade
- I’m done trading for today
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas?
- Right above the prev high
- What technical level are we at?
- Right above the prev high
- Pullback to TTF UKC and VWAP
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- Bullish candle in overextended area
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 13% of daily risk but looking to potentially add
- Entry: 53.668
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 53.518
- TP
- 54
- Trade Management
- Momentum has not come into the move yet which makes me think there’s no one there to buy this to go higher. Thinking to possible scratch my trade
- Covered half at profit 53.802
- Covered other half at 53.804
- Feel I covered too quick again although LTF VWAP doesn’t look to hold well
- Win 13.5 ticks
- I did well to execute when I saw my setup arise. I checked if the TTF was in the right spot and went for it
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- Only took 1 trade
- Entry
- My entry was good. I got in right after the close of the entry signal candle
- My SL was placed 15 ticks away which was at a good distance. I was thinking of putting it around 20 ticks because that would have been under the prev high but I told myself that if it would go that far my pattern would not be valid anymore and thus I left it.
- My TP was at the excess area which we never made it to. When I saw that PA looked sluggish around the VWAP I took off half of my position and am happy that I did. I then saw PA not moving with momentum looking to cross the VWAP and thus I took everything off.
- Entry
- Only took 1 trade
- P/L for the day
Open Time | Type | Size | Item | Price | S / L | T / P | Close Time | Price | P/L ticks |
2019.01.25 10:26:50 | buy | 1 | wti | 53.668 | 53.518 | 54.067 | 2019.01.25 10:40:17 | 53.804 | 13.60 |
2019.01.25 10:26:50 | buy | 1 | wti | 53.668 | 53.518 | 54.067 | 2019.01.25 10:38:44 | 53.802 | 13.40 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13.50 |
Daily Report Card | ||||||
Date: | 1/25/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute playbook trades | |||
Combined Score | 86 | |||||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | |||||
10 | Pre-market routines | 7 | Hypos | |||
9 | Session PECS | 9 | Real-time analysis | |||
9 | Trading the process | 10 | Trade selection | |||
9 | Daily review | 8 | Trade Execution & Mgmt. | |||
10 | Progress toward Weekly goal | 5 | Risk Adjusted Returns | |||
47 | Total | 39 | ||||
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- It was kinda like my HYPO1 but it never got overextended and dropped before that. But I think I still did well on this. I
- How well did I follow my process?
- I did really well here. I stalked my entry and got it timed fairly well. Then when I saw PA ‘hesitating’ at a key level I covered half of my position to see what would happen next. When PA didn’t move in a way that showed there was more momentum behind it I covered the other half.
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- Again I keep coming back to the percentages. When I combined thinking in percentages combined with executing a playbook setup I feel calm and collected. I was not tired today and not too hyped because of too much caffeine.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- The big move that I thought would come after we’d overextend into excess area, came before that. Based on my playbook rules I was not allowed to take that trade and I didn’t. However, I did notice the conditions of the potential trade and logged it for my playbook. I will not take those trades until I have backtested and reviewed them as well.
- Later on I saw another entry point (but based on my playbook rules I couldn’t take) I took note of a hypothetical entry, SL and TP and watched what it did. This eventually did hit my TP so I will review this trade tomorrow and see if it is something I want in my playbook.
- The big move that I thought would come after we’d overextend into excess area, came before that. Based on my playbook rules I was not allowed to take that trade and I didn’t. However, I did notice the conditions of the potential trade and logged it for my playbook. I will not take those trades until I have backtested and reviewed them as well.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Execute when setup arises. I did well today on execution. This is also my Weekly goal and will continue doing this to boost my confidence in my setup.
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- I should not watch the screen the whole time. It drains me when my setup isn’t there. I put in price alerts at areas where I feel that it might be the area I’d like to get involved in and then stalk a potential opportunity.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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