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01252019 Trade Plan

Daily Report Card

01252019 Trade Plan

01252019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeMonTueWedThuFri
-1/211/221/231/241/25
Beers night before50222
Time bed yesterday0:5823:070:2223:420:28
woke up8:307:378:168:298:46
Hours sleep7:328:307:548:478:18
Awake1:07-1:041:111:17
REM0:57-2:101:201:47
Light3:54-3:335:063:59
Deep1:34-1:071:101:25
Sleep well?31344
Mela­tonin00000
Neg­a­tive thoughts?22111
Exer­cise yester(to)day11343
Grat­i­tude44555
Joy44555
Anger11112
Fear21111
Focus23443
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon1 TC morn­ing (1 scoop), 1TC after­noon (half)1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon1 TC morn­ing (1 scp), 1 Espres­so (half)1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fastingnonononono
Water L33333
Vit­a­minsyesyesyesyesyes
Cig­a­rettes000510

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I woke up today in what I think is the wrong sleep cycle which made me feel grog­gy for a few hours. Even though I slept enough hours and and my deep sleep has improved. 
  • How do you feel?
    • Now I feel good but it took a few hours. I wish there was a way to have the Fit­bit wake me up dur­ing the right sleep cycle. I’ll look into this some more. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Yes­ter­day dur­ing the AS we start­ed off test­ing the 52.70 lev­el first with a dou­ble top before drop­ping to val­ue area 52.30 and test­ing this lev­el sev­er­al times 
    • When Lon­don opened we had a high momen­tum test of the val­ue area and reversed quick­ly into new highs touch­ing the LIS 52.90 lev­el before slow­ly drop­ping back to val­ue area again form­ing a dou­ble bot­tom around NY open and we moved back up to the LIS even­tu­al­ly BO from there to 53.40 lev­el (which is near the excess area)
    • Then we basi­cal­ly start­ed rang­ing between 53.10 to 53.40 for the remain­der of the ses­sion with one spike into excess area that got smacked down and then a spike down from 53.10 that got upheld

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Build of 6.550M
  • EIA report
    • Build of 7.970M
  • Both reports seem to some­what agree which is a bit unusual

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High 53.505
        • Low 52.122
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 52.90 area still
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We failed to make a swing high over 54.30
      • Where do you think it should go?
        • If we can hold the cur­rent excess area at 54.05 area we’ll roll over and test the LIS at 52.90 area with a poten­tial stop at prev low 53.505 first
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • 52.30 area near prev low has shown buy­ers com­ing in
        • 53.95 area looks like where sell­ers have come in
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We start­ed a UT on the short to medi­um term and have bro­ken prev high
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • If we fail to hold the excess area that could be a good short­ing oppor­tu­ni­ty down into prev low and stretch tar­get at LIS
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • AS con­tin­ued the con­sol­i­da­tion of yesterday’s ral­ly and then con­tin­ued the ral­ly up through the prev high to just below the excess area

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • Overex­tend over the excess area and then roll over to BD from excess area
      • PT prev low at 53.505
      • Stretched tar­get at pre­vi­ous con­sol­i­da­tion lev­el of 53.20 above the LIS
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • Fail excess area and BO from this 53.95 level
      • PT around 54.50 (prev swing high)
      • Stretched tar­get around 55.20

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING my play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • After Lon­don opened we start­ed what looks like a move down to prev low so let’s see what PA does around that level
    • T1 win 13.5 ticks up 12%
    • PA isn’t real­ly moving
    • I was think­ing that HYPO1 could actu­al­ly be in play since the excess area I des­ig­nat­ed is 10 ticks above the LTF VWAP where we seem to have reversed but since that wasn’t in overex­tend­ed area I didn’t look to trade it and I won’t since it’s not part of my playbook
      • It looks though that was the big play of the ses­sion since we dropped to below the prev high
        • Which is OK since I did fol­low my rules
    • We are in a DT so I should only be look­ing for shorts unless this prev high can hold and we see a rever­sal pattern
    • We seem to have BD from prev high
    • Could this mean that after a big bull/bear run my set­up doesn’t catch the big moves? I would have to do some more back­test­ing on this. 
    • If I would have got­ten in I would have done so at the retest­ing of the prev high CAR which was also the LTF LKC and VWAP
      • Entry would have been 53.445 with a 36 spread would be 53.409
      • SL would have been 53.55
      • TP 53.10
      • R15R30
      • I would have made 30 ticks on this trade
    • I’m done trad­ing for today

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas?
          • Right above the prev high
        • What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • Right above the prev high
          • Pull­back to TTF UKC and VWAP
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • Bull­ish can­dle in overex­tend­ed area
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 13% of dai­ly risk but look­ing to poten­tial­ly add
        • Entry: 53.668
    • SL
      • 53.518
    • TP
      • 54
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Momen­tum has not come into the move yet which makes me think there’s no one there to buy this to go high­er. Think­ing to pos­si­ble scratch my trade
      • Cov­ered half at prof­it 53.802
      • Cov­ered oth­er half at 53.804
      • Feel I cov­ered too quick again although LTF VWAP doesn’t look to hold well
      • Win 13.5 ticks
      • I did well to exe­cute when I saw my set­up arise. I checked if the TTF was in the right spot and went for it

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • Only took 1 trade
      • Entry
        • My entry was good. I got in right after the close of the entry sig­nal candle 
        • My SL was placed 15 ticks away which was at a good dis­tance. I was think­ing of putting it around 20 ticks because that would have been under the prev high but I told myself that if it would go that far my pat­tern would not be valid any­more and thus I left it. 
        • My TP was at the excess area which we nev­er made it to. When I saw that PA looked slug­gish around the VWAP I took off half of my posi­tion and am hap­py that I did. I then saw PA not mov­ing with momen­tum look­ing to cross the VWAP and thus I took every­thing off.
  • P/L for the day
Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticks
2019.01.25 10:26:50buy1wti53.66853.51854.0672019.01.25 10:40:1753.80413.60
2019.01.25 10:26:50buy1wti53.66853.51854.0672019.01.25 10:38:4453.80213.40
---------13.50

Dai­ly Report Card
                   
  Date:1/25/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute play­book trades      
       
Com­bined Score86   
 
  Process Report Card (10 each)    Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)     
    10Pre-mar­ket routines7Hypos
  9Ses­sion PECS9Real-time analy­sis
  9Trad­ing the process10Trade selec­tion
 9Dai­ly review8Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
  10Progress toward Week­ly goal5Risk Adjust­ed Returns
  47Total39
              
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • It was kin­da like my HYPO1 but it nev­er got overex­tend­ed and dropped before that. But I think I still did well on this. I 
  • How well did I fol­low my process?
    • I did real­ly well here. I stalked my entry and got it timed fair­ly well. Then when I saw PA ‘hes­i­tat­ing’ at a key lev­el I cov­ered half of my posi­tion to see what would hap­pen next. When PA didn’t move in a way that showed there was more momen­tum behind it I cov­ered the oth­er half.
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • Again I keep com­ing back to the per­cent­ages. When I com­bined think­ing in per­cent­ages com­bined with exe­cut­ing a play­book set­up I feel calm and col­lect­ed. I was not tired today and not too hyped because of too much caffeine. 
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • The big move that I thought would come after we’d overex­tend into excess area, came before that. Based on my play­book rules I was not allowed to take that trade and I didn’t. How­ev­er, I did notice the con­di­tions of the poten­tial trade and logged it for my play­book. I will not take those trades until I have back­test­ed and reviewed them as well.
      • Lat­er on I saw anoth­er entry point (but based on my play­book rules I couldn’t take) I took note of a hypo­thet­i­cal entry, SL and TP and watched what it did. This even­tu­al­ly did hit my TP so I will review this trade tomor­row and see if it is some­thing I want in my playbook.
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Exe­cute when set­up aris­es. I did well today on exe­cu­tion. This is also my Week­ly goal and will con­tin­ue doing this to boost my con­fi­dence in my setup. 
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • I should not watch the screen the whole time. It drains me when my set­up isn’t there. I put in price alerts at areas where I feel that it might be the area I’d like to get involved in and then stalk a poten­tial opportunity.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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