01252019 Trade Plan

25 Jan 01252019 Trade Plan

01252019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri
-	1/21	1/22	1/23	1/24	1/25
Beers night before	5	0	2	2	2
Time bed yesterday	0:58	23:07	0:22	23:42	0:28
woke up	8:30	7:37	8:16	8:29	8:46
Hours sleep	7:32	8:30	7:54	8:47	8:18
Awake	1:07	-	1:04	1:11	1:17
REM	0:57	-	2:10	1:20	1:47
Light	3:54	-	3:33	5:06	3:59
Deep	1:34	-	1:07	1:10	1:25
Sleep well?	3	1	3	4	4
Mela­tonin	0	0	0	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	2	2	1	1	1
Exer­cise yester(to)day	1	1	3	4	3
Grat­i­tude	4	4	5	5	5
Joy	4	4	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	2
Fear	2	1	1	1	1
Focus	2	3	4	4	3
Cof­fees today	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon	1 TC morn­ing (1 scoop), 1TC after­noon (half)	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon	1 TC morn­ing (1 scp), 1 Espres­so (half)	1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	no	no	no	no
Water L	3	3	3	3	3
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	0	0	0	5	10

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • I woke up today in what I think is the wrong sleep cycle which made me feel grog­gy for a few hours. Even though I slept enough hours and and my deep sleep has improved. 
• How do you feel?
  • Now I feel good but it took a few hours. I wish there was a way to have the Fit­bit wake me up dur­ing the right sleep cycle. I’ll look into this some more. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
  • Yes­ter­day dur­ing the AS we start­ed off test­ing the 52.70 lev­el first with a dou­ble top before drop­ping to val­ue area 52.30 and test­ing this lev­el sev­er­al times 
  • When Lon­don opened we had a high momen­tum test of the val­ue area and reversed quick­ly into new highs touch­ing the LIS 52.90 lev­el before slow­ly drop­ping back to val­ue area again form­ing a dou­ble bot­tom around NY open and we moved back up to the LIS even­tu­al­ly BO from there to 53.40 lev­el (which is near the excess area)
  • Then we basi­cal­ly start­ed rang­ing between 53.10 to 53.40 for the remain­der of the ses­sion with one spike into excess area that got smacked down and then a spike down from 53.10 that got upheld

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Build of 6.550M
• EIA report
  • Build of 7.970M
• Both reports seem to some­what agree which is a bit unusual

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
      • High 53.505
      • Low 52.122
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 52.90 area still
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We failed to make a swing high over 54.30
    • Where do you think it should go?
      • If we can hold the cur­rent excess area at 54.05 area we’ll roll over and test the LIS at 52.90 area with a poten­tial stop at prev low 53.505 first

• TTF
  • Dialling in on opportunities
    • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
      • 52.30 area near prev low has shown buy­ers com­ing in
      • 53.95 area looks like where sell­ers have come in
    • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
      • We start­ed a UT on the short to medi­um term and have bro­ken prev high
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • If we fail to hold the excess area that could be a good short­ing oppor­tu­ni­ty down into prev low and stretch tar­get at LIS
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • AS con­tin­ued the con­sol­i­da­tion of yesterday’s ral­ly and then con­tin­ued the ral­ly up through the prev high to just below the excess area

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • Overex­tend over the excess area and then roll over to BD from excess area
    • PT prev low at 53.505
    • Stretched tar­get at pre­vi­ous con­sol­i­da­tion lev­el of 53.20 above the LIS
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Fail excess area and BO from this 53.95 level
    • PT around 54.50 (prev swing high)
    • Stretched tar­get around 55.20

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING my play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • After Lon­don opened we start­ed what looks like a move down to prev low so let’s see what PA does around that level
  • T1 win 13.5 ticks up 12%
  • PA isn’t real­ly moving
  • I was think­ing that HYPO1 could actu­al­ly be in play since the excess area I des­ig­nat­ed is 10 ticks above the LTF VWAP where we seem to have reversed but since that wasn’t in overex­tend­ed area I didn’t look to trade it and I won’t since it’s not part of my playbook
    • It looks though that was the big play of the ses­sion since we dropped to below the prev high
      • Which is OK since I did fol­low my rules
  • We are in a DT so I should only be look­ing for shorts unless this prev high can hold and we see a rever­sal pattern
  • We seem to have BD from prev high
  • Could this mean that after a big bull/bear run my set­up doesn’t catch the big moves? I would have to do some more back­test­ing on this. 
  • If I would have got­ten in I would have done so at the retest­ing of the prev high CAR which was also the LTF LKC and VWAP
    • Entry would have been 53.445 with a 36 spread would be 53.409
    • SL would have been 53.55
    • TP 53.10
    • R15R30
    • I would have made 30 ticks on this trade
  • I’m done trad­ing for today

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas?
        • Right above the prev high
      • What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
        • Right above the prev high
        • Pull­back to TTF UKC and VWAP
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • Bull­ish can­dle in overex­tend­ed area
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 13% of dai­ly risk but look­ing to poten­tial­ly add
      • Entry: 53.668
  • SL
    • 53.518
  • TP
    • 54
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Momen­tum has not come into the move yet which makes me think there’s no one there to buy this to go high­er. Think­ing to pos­si­ble scratch my trade
    • Cov­ered half at prof­it 53.802
    • Cov­ered oth­er half at 53.804
    • Feel I cov­ered too quick again although LTF VWAP doesn’t look to hold well
    • Win 13.5 ticks
    • I did well to exe­cute when I saw my set­up arise. I checked if the TTF was in the right spot and went for it

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
  • Only took 1 trade
    • Entry
      • My entry was good. I got in right after the close of the entry sig­nal candle 
      • My SL was placed 15 ticks away which was at a good dis­tance. I was think­ing of putting it around 20 ticks because that would have been under the prev high but I told myself that if it would go that far my pat­tern would not be valid any­more and thus I left it. 
      • My TP was at the excess area which we nev­er made it to. When I saw that PA looked slug­gish around the VWAP I took off half of my posi­tion and am hap­py that I did. I then saw PA not mov­ing with momen­tum look­ing to cross the VWAP and thus I took every­thing off.
• P/L for the day

Open Time	Type	Size	Item	Price	S / L	T / P	Close Time	Price	P/L ticks
2019.01.25 10:26:50	buy	1	wti	53.668	53.518	54.067	2019.01.25 10:40:17	53.804	13.60
2019.01.25 10:26:50	buy	1	wti	53.668	53.518	54.067	2019.01.25 10:38:44	53.802	13.40
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	13.50

Dai­ly Report Card
	Date:	1/25/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute play­book trades
	Com­bined Score	86
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	10	Pre-mar­ket routines	7	Hypos
	9	Ses­sion PECS	9	Real-time analy­sis
	9	Trad­ing the process	10	Trade selec­tion
	9	Dai­ly review	8	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
	10	Progress toward Week­ly goal	5	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
	47	Total	39

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • It was kin­da like my HYPO1 but it nev­er got overex­tend­ed and dropped before that. But I think I still did well on this. I 
• How well did I fol­low my process?
  • I did real­ly well here. I stalked my entry and got it timed fair­ly well. Then when I saw PA ‘hes­i­tat­ing’ at a key lev­el I cov­ered half of my posi­tion to see what would hap­pen next. When PA didn’t move in a way that showed there was more momen­tum behind it I cov­ered the oth­er half.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • Again I keep com­ing back to the per­cent­ages. When I com­bined think­ing in per­cent­ages com­bined with exe­cut­ing a play­book set­up I feel calm and col­lect­ed. I was not tired today and not too hyped because of too much caffeine. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • The big move that I thought would come after we’d overex­tend into excess area, came before that. Based on my play­book rules I was not allowed to take that trade and I didn’t. How­ev­er, I did notice the con­di­tions of the poten­tial trade and logged it for my play­book. I will not take those trades until I have back­test­ed and reviewed them as well.
    • Lat­er on I saw anoth­er entry point (but based on my play­book rules I couldn’t take) I took note of a hypo­thet­i­cal entry, SL and TP and watched what it did. This even­tu­al­ly did hit my TP so I will review this trade tomor­row and see if it is some­thing I want in my playbook.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Exe­cute when set­up aris­es. I did well today on exe­cu­tion. This is also my Week­ly goal and will con­tin­ue doing this to boost my con­fi­dence in my setup. 
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • I should not watch the screen the whole time. It drains me when my set­up isn’t there. I put in price alerts at areas where I feel that it might be the area I’d like to get involved in and then stalk a poten­tial opportunity.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.