01282019 Trade Plan — sluggish session

28 Jan 01282019 Trade Plan — sluggish session

01282019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon
-	1/24	1/25	1/26	1/27	1/28
Beers night before	2	2	6	10	6
Time bed yesterday	23:42	0:28	1:55	6:27	4:20
woke up	8:29	8:46	11:26	12:04	13:38
Hours sleep	8:47	8:18	9:31	5:37	9:18
Awake	1:11	1:17	1:20	0:47	1:31
REM	1:20	1:47	1:39	0:50	1:20
Light	5:06	3:59	4:45	3:08	4:31
Deep	1:10	1:25	1:47	0:52	1:56
Sleep well?	4	4	4	2	3
Mela­tonin	0	0	0	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	1	1	1	2	3
Exer­cise yester(to)day	4	3	3	3	3
Grat­i­tude	5	5	5	5	4
Joy	5	5	5	5	4
Anger	1	2	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	1	1	3
Focus	4	3	3	2	2
Cof­fees today	1 TC morn­ing (1 scp), 1 Espres­so (half)	1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon	1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon	1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon	1TC in after­noon 1 scoop
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	no	no	no	no
Water L	3	3	3	3	3
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes	no	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	5	10	10	10	0

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • Besides not get­ting enough sleep over the week­end it’s fair­ly good. 
• How do you feel?
  • A bit tired but OK. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
  • On fri­day we made swings high into the excess area around 53.90 and then swung down to 53 area
    • Basi­cal­ly the whole ses­sion was spend in this range

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Com­ing out tomor­row Jan­u­ary 29th
• EIA report
  • Com­ing out Wednes­day Jan­u­ary 30th

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
      • High 53.982
      • Low 52.969
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 53.20 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t make a swing high on the HTF
    • Where do you think it should go?
      • Pos­si­bly more downside
    • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
      • BD from LIS would war­rant a big short­ing opportunity
• TTF
  • Dialling in on opportunities
    • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
      • Excess area 53.80
      • Val­ue area 52.45
    • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
      • The mar­ket bal­ance after a lev­el change up and we are now look­ing to see if we can hold this lev­el or not
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • CAR the LIS could give us short­ing opportunities
      • BO from LIS could give long opportunities
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • The AS made a TTF LH and is now test­ing the prev low
    • The LTF shows an arch­ing pat­tern at prev low and could be a rever­sal although I am more short biased still but let’s wait and see

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • Move from prev low to LIS to CAR and drop from there
    • Short around 53.20/.30
    • PT Prev low
    • Stretched PT 52.50
• Hypo 2 Short
  • BD from prev low
    • Short around 52.90
    • PT 52.50
    • Stretched PT 52.30
• Hypo 3 Long
  • BO from LIS
    • Long around 53.35
    • PT 53.70
    • Stretched PT 53.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • We con­tin­ued test­ing the prev low after Lon­don opened
  • T1 Win 10.2 ticks
  • PA is very slug­gish and unevent­ful sofar 
  • Done trad­ing for today.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas?
        • We are below the prev low and looks like we CAR and are in a DT
      • What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
        • Below the prev low 25 ticks above val­ue area
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • We hadn’t made an extend­ed move into 2.0 SD so when PA moved back to VWAP/LKC I decid­ed to go short
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 13% of Dai­ly Risk
      • Entry: 52.853
  • SL
    • Hard 53 soft 52.95
  • TP
    • 52.5
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at touch­ing of the 2.0 SD since price didn’t pick up in momen­tum. It was kin­da slug­gish to reach that point so I got out
      • Cov­ered at 52.751
      • Win 10.2 ticks

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
  • I am get­ting bet­ter at this. I wait­ed for PA to hit the 2.0 SD before I covered
• P/L for the day

Tick­et	Open Time	Type	Size	Item	Price	S / L	T / P	Close Time	Price
2068357426	2019.01.28 10:59:20	sell	2	wti	52.853	53.003	52.496	2019.01.28 11:14:40	52.751	10.20

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:	1/28/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute play­book trades
Com­bined Score	79
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
7	Pre-mar­ket routines	8	Hypos
7	Ses­sion PECS	9	Real-time analy­sis
8	Trad­ing the process	10	Trade selec­tion
7	Dai­ly review	8	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
8	Progress toward Week­ly goal	7	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
37	Total	42

• Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • I would say it was fair­ly accu­rate. HYPO2 played out. 
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • Unevent­ful. I did well. 
  • What did I do well?
    • I did well to rec­og­nize the lack of speed in the mar­ket and thus less fol­low-through on moves.
  • What do I need to improve?
    • I need to under­stand my trend-fol­low­ing set­up more. I will work on this on the weekend.
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • I learned that I need to be patient and hit my tar­gets when they arise. If not? I just wait. 
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Be more patient
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Take too many trades. I only took one sol­id trade today and I’m hap­py with that.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.