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01282019 Trade Plan — sluggish session

Daily Report Card

01282019 Trade Plan — sluggish session

01282019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeThuFriSatSunMon
-1/241/251/261/271/28
Beers night before226106
Time bed yesterday23:420:281:556:274:20
woke up8:298:4611:2612:0413:38
Hours sleep8:478:189:315:379:18
Awake1:111:171:200:471:31
REM1:201:471:390:501:20
Light5:063:594:453:084:31
Deep1:101:251:470:521:56
Sleep well?44423
Mela­tonin00000
Neg­a­tive thoughts?11123
Exer­cise yester(to)day43333
Grat­i­tude55554
Joy55554
Anger12111
Fear11113
Focus43322
Cof­fees today1 TC morn­ing (1 scp), 1 Espres­so (half)1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon1TC in after­noon 1 scoop
Inter­mit­tent fastingnonononono
Water L33333
Vit­a­minsyesyesnoyesyes
Cig­a­rettes51010100

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • Besides not get­ting enough sleep over the week­end it’s fair­ly good. 
  • How do you feel?
    • A bit tired but OK. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • On fri­day we made swings high into the excess area around 53.90 and then swung down to 53 area
      • Basi­cal­ly the whole ses­sion was spend in this range

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Com­ing out tomor­row Jan­u­ary 29th
  • EIA report
    • Com­ing out Wednes­day Jan­u­ary 30th

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High 53.982
        • Low 52.969
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 53.20 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We didn’t make a swing high on the HTF
      • Where do you think it should go?
        • Pos­si­bly more downside
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • BD from LIS would war­rant a big short­ing opportunity
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Excess area 53.80
        • Val­ue area 52.45
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • The mar­ket bal­ance after a lev­el change up and we are now look­ing to see if we can hold this lev­el or not
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • CAR the LIS could give us short­ing opportunities
        • BO from LIS could give long opportunities
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • The AS made a TTF LH and is now test­ing the prev low
      • The LTF shows an arch­ing pat­tern at prev low and could be a rever­sal although I am more short biased still but let’s wait and see

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • Move from prev low to LIS to CAR and drop from there
      • Short around 53.20/.30
      • PT Prev low
      • Stretched PT 52.50
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • BD from prev low
      • Short around 52.90
      • PT 52.50
      • Stretched PT 52.30
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • BO from LIS
      • Long around 53.35
      • PT 53.70
      • Stretched PT 53.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • We con­tin­ued test­ing the prev low after Lon­don opened
    • T1 Win 10.2 ticks
    • PA is very slug­gish and unevent­ful sofar 
    • Done trad­ing for today.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas?
          • We are below the prev low and looks like we CAR and are in a DT
        • What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • Below the prev low 25 ticks above val­ue area
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • We hadn’t made an extend­ed move into 2.0 SD so when PA moved back to VWAP/LKC I decid­ed to go short
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 13% of Dai­ly Risk
        • Entry: 52.853
    • SL
      • Hard 53 soft 52.95
    • TP
      • 52.5
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at touch­ing of the 2.0 SD since price didn’t pick up in momen­tum. It was kin­da slug­gish to reach that point so I got out
        • Cov­ered at 52.751
        • Win 10.2 ticks

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • I am get­ting bet­ter at this. I wait­ed for PA to hit the 2.0 SD before I covered
  • P/L for the day
Tick­etOpen TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePrice
20683574262019.01.28 10:59:20sell2wti52.85353.00352.4962019.01.28 11:14:4052.75110.20

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:1/28/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute play­book trades
Com­bined Score79
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
7Pre-mar­ket routines8Hypos
7Ses­sion PECS9Real-time analy­sis
8Trad­ing the process10Trade selec­tion
7Dai­ly review8Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
8Progress toward Week­ly goal7Risk Adjust­ed Returns
37Total42
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • I would say it was fair­ly accu­rate. HYPO2 played out. 
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • Unevent­ful. I did well. 
    • What did I do well?
      • I did well to rec­og­nize the lack of speed in the mar­ket and thus less fol­low-through on moves.
    • What do I need to improve?
      • I need to under­stand my trend-fol­low­ing set­up more. I will work on this on the weekend.
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • I learned that I need to be patient and hit my tar­gets when they arise. If not? I just wait. 
    • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
      • Be more patient
    • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
      • Take too many trades. I only took one sol­id trade today and I’m hap­py with that.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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