
29 Jan 01292019 Trade Plan — another sluggish day
01292019 Trade Plan
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue |
- | 1/25 | 1/26 | 1/27 | 1/28 | 1/29 |
Beers night before | 2 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 0 |
Time bed yesterday | 0:28 | 1:55 | 6:27 | 4:20 | 23:19 |
woke up | 8:46 | 11:26 | 12:04 | 13:38 | 7:56 |
Hours sleep | 8:18 | 9:31 | 5:37 | 9:18 | 8:37 |
Awake | 1:17 | 1:20 | 0:47 | 1:31 | 1:23 |
REM | 1:47 | 1:39 | 0:50 | 1:20 | 0:37 |
Light | 3:59 | 4:45 | 3:08 | 4:31 | 5:26 |
Deep | 1:25 | 1:47 | 0:52 | 1:56 | 1:11 |
Sleep well? | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Anger | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Focus | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 1 hours afternoon | 1 espresso spread over 1 hours afternoon | 1 espresso spread over 1 hours afternoon | 1TC in afternoon 1 scoop | 1 espresso spread over 1 hours afternoon |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | no | no | yes |
Water L | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | yes | no | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I’ve been sleeping more so am feeling better lately. I still need to get on point with exercising. My friend told me about a simple workout that only lasts 12 minutes. I will do that every morning from now.
- How do you feel?
- I feel OK but a bit on edge. I’m still having some negative thoughts so I should be more careful today. Stick to your plan. When you wait for your setup to arise you make money every time. Be patient. You’re a fisherman. There’s plenty to go around.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 2
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- We started the AS with a swing low that failed to reach the excess area and was a bearish sign. The rest of the session we inched lower and broke through LIS area 53.25 with ease
- Then during LS we continued the decline and BD from prev low at 52.969 and spend the remainder of the session pulling back to CAR the prev low and then during NY we drop hard to eventually 51.40 level
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Coming out today January 29th
- EIA report
- Coming out tomorrow January 30th
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 53.699
- Low 51.393
- Where is the LIS?
- The LIS is around the 53 area
- What didn’t happen?
- We didn’t BD from HTF LKC yet
- Where do you think it should go?
- I think that eventually it will go down to find potential support around the 50 level
- Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
- A failed swing high to LIS would present a good shorting opportunity
- A drop to prev low and reverse to test and potentially BO from value area
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Value is around 52.20 area
- Excess around 53.60 area
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- We are migrating down a bit
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- Failed swing high over the value area could give a great shorting opportunity
- BD from value area as well
- Overextend towards LIS and then roll over
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- After the O/N bounced higher from 51.40 level the AS took us down to make a HL at 51.90 area
- We then found resistance at 52.35 level
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- BD from Value area to prev low and then reverse
- Entry area 52 level
- PT prev low around 51.50
- BD from Value area to prev low and then reverse
- Hypo 2 Short
- Overextend over 52.50 to near touch of LIS before rolling over
- Entry around 52.50
- PT 52.20
- Stretch PT around 51.90, 51.50
- Overextend over 52.50 to near touch of LIS before rolling over
- Hypo 3 Long
- BO from Value area
- Entry area around 52.50
- PT around 53
- Stretch PT around 53.50
- BO from Value area
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- HYPO2 got in play before LS opened so I will look for a BD from value before getting in
- It looks like we might hold the Value area
- We are at the LTF 50MA and the TTF 50MA and might possibly BO
- We might overextend into a failed swing high on the TTF and creating a short opportunity but it looks still very much bullish so we might eventually go test LIS
- We have what looks like a healthy UT on the LTF
- T1 loss 7.8 ticks
- PA acting a bit erratic. We did eventually go down from LTF UKC and bounced off the 50MA and VWAP and then straight up
- We could possibly go test TTF UKC and 200MA and thus the LIS at 53 level
- T2 win 5.2 ticks and 2.2 ticks
- I’m glad I followed my gut and covered my positions since PA seems to have reversed. But again PA is moving very sluggish without significant moves
- Thus I’m not sure if I will take another position or not
- It looks like I won’t be taking any positions anymore
- As soon I said this PA tried dropping from LTF 50MA
- Done trading
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas?
- A move away from Value area around the 52.50 level that was in HYPO2 so when a doji appeared at LTF UKC I took a short
- What technical level are we at?
- Previous swing high
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- Doji at LTF UKC
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 10% of daily risk
- Entry: 52.457
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 52.532
- TP
- 52.330
- Trade Management
- Covered at 52.535
- Loss 7.8 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas?
- Broke through TTF 50MA and VWAP and moving away from Value are and thought a long is warranted
- What technical level are we at?
- Above the TTF 50MA and VWAP
- PT around UKC 200MA
- Above the TTF 50MA and VWAP
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?big sharp move up to LTF UKCand then a pullback so took a shot. If we break the pull backs low I’m out around 52.50
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 10% of daily risk
- Entry: 52.579
- TTF
- SL
- 52.344
- TP
- 52.868
- Trade Management
- Covered half when we showed loss of momentum to BO from swing high
- If we BO I will be looking to add to position
- We returned to prev entry point and I took another 10% risk thinking the pattern is still valid. I’ll be covering at a loss if we break previous candle low
- Covered them all since I felt that PA wasn’t moving as quickly as I’d liked
- P1 52.579
- TPH at 52.637 win 5.8 ticks
- TPH at 52.625 win 4.6 ticks
- Average 5.2 ticks
- P2 52.609
- TP at 52.631 Win 2.2 ticks
- Covered half when we showed loss of momentum to BO from swing high
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I did well. I took my SL when it got hit. I understood that the trade had to go my way straight away and thus I set a very tight SL and took a minimal loss.
- Then when I took the other trades I saw that PA was not behaving ‘normally’ and I cut them loose.
- P/L for the day
Open Time | Type | Size | Item | Price | S / L | T / P | Close Time | Price | P/L ticks |
2019.01.29 12:14:07 | buy | 2 | wti | 52.609 | 0 | 53.126 | 2019.01.29 12:19:07 | 52.631 | 2.20 |
2019.01.29 12:04:35 | buy | 1 | wti | 52.579 | 52.378 | 53.147 | 2019.01.29 12:18:06 | 52.625 | 4.60 |
2019.01.29 12:04:35 | buy | 1 | wti | 52.579 | 52.344 | 52.868 | 2019.01.29 12:11:29 | 52.637 | 5.80 |
2019.01.29 11:21:09 | sell | 2 | wti | 52.457 | 52.532 | 52.33 | 2019.01.29 11:22:07 | 52.535 | -7.80 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -0.40 |
Daily Report Card
- Define winning
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- HYPO2 started playing out but PA was so sluggish that not much happened after we went over the 52.50 level
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- Focussing on playbook setups and thinking in percentages has really helped me stay calm
- I can focus better now when it matters because I started using price alerts around the areas that I would target and stalk for an opportunity
- What did I do well?
- I did well to understand that today’s trading was going to be different because the PA was very sluggish and candles had mostly long bodies with almost no wicks and this indicates to me that’s something is going on which is not conducive to my trading setups
- What do I need to improve?
- There was one trade that I could have taken but didn’t since it didn’t feel it fit my setup well but turned out to be the biggest move of the session. I could have risked a smaller percentage on that move to push myself beyond my comfort zone a bit. The market conditions were right I just felt the TTF wasn’t giving me the right signal although the LTF kinda did. I could have taken a chance here with like I said less risk put on.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Keep stalking opportunities when they are in play
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- No need to keep monitoring every tick move if my alerts aren’t triggered. I know where my entry areas are and I should only focus on those
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