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01292019 Trade Plan — another sluggish day

01292019 Trade Plan — another sluggish day

01292019 Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeFriSatSunMonTue
Beers night before261060
Time bed yesterday0:281:556:274:2023:19
woke up8:4611:2612:0413:387:56
Hours sleep8:189:315:379:188:37
Sleep well?44234
Neg­a­tive thoughts?11233
Exer­cise yester(to)day33333
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon1TC in after­noon 1 scoop1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fastingnonononoyes
Water L33333

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I’ve been sleep­ing more so am feel­ing bet­ter late­ly. I still need to get on point with exer­cis­ing. My friend told me about a sim­ple work­out that only lasts 12 min­utes. I will do that every morn­ing from now. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel OK but a bit on edge. I’m still hav­ing some neg­a­tive thoughts so I should be more care­ful today. Stick to your plan. When you wait for your set­up to arise you make mon­ey every time. Be patient. You’re a fish­er­man. There’s plen­ty to go around. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • We start­ed the AS with a swing low that failed to reach the excess area and was a bear­ish sign. The rest of the ses­sion we inched low­er and broke through LIS area 53.25 with ease 
    • Then dur­ing LS we con­tin­ued the decline and BD from prev low at 52.969 and spend the remain­der of the ses­sion pulling back to CAR the prev low and then dur­ing NY we drop hard to even­tu­al­ly 51.40 level

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Com­ing out today Jan­u­ary 29th
  • EIA report
    • Com­ing out tomor­row Jan­u­ary 30th

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High 53.699
        • Low 51.393
      • Where is the LIS?
        • The LIS is around the 53 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We didn’t BD from HTF LKC yet
      • Where do you think it should go?
        • I think that even­tu­al­ly it will go down to find poten­tial sup­port around the 50 level
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • A failed swing high to LIS would present a good short­ing opportunity
        • A drop to prev low and reverse to test and poten­tial­ly BO from val­ue area
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Val­ue is around 52.20 area
        • Excess around 53.60 area
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We are migrat­ing down a bit
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • Failed swing high over the val­ue area could give a great short­ing opportunity
        • BD from val­ue area as well
        • Overex­tend towards LIS and then roll over
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • After the O/N bounced high­er from 51.40 lev­el the AS took us down to make a HL at 51.90 area
      • We then found resis­tance at 52.35 level

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • BD from Val­ue area to prev low and then reverse
      • Entry area 52 level
      • PT prev low around 51.50
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • Overex­tend over 52.50 to near touch of LIS before rolling over
      • Entry around 52.50
      • PT 52.20
      • Stretch PT around 51.90, 51.50
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • BO from Val­ue area 
      • Entry area around 52.50
      • PT around 53
      • Stretch PT around 53.50

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • HYPO2 got in play before LS opened so I will look for a BD from val­ue before get­ting in
    • It looks like we might hold the Val­ue area
    • We are at the LTF 50MA and the TTF 50MA and might pos­si­bly BO
    • We might overex­tend into a failed swing high on the TTF and cre­at­ing a short oppor­tu­ni­ty but it looks still very much bull­ish so we might even­tu­al­ly go test LIS
    • We have what looks like a healthy UT on the LTF
    • T1 loss 7.8 ticks
    • PA act­ing a bit errat­ic. We did even­tu­al­ly go down from LTF UKC and bounced off the 50MA and VWAP and then straight up
      • We could pos­si­bly go test TTF UKC and 200MA and thus the LIS at 53 level
    • T2 win 5.2 ticks and 2.2 ticks
    • I’m glad I fol­lowed my gut and cov­ered my posi­tions since PA seems to have reversed. But again PA is mov­ing very slug­gish with­out sig­nif­i­cant moves
      • Thus I’m not sure if I will take anoth­er posi­tion or not
      • It looks like I won’t be tak­ing any posi­tions anymore 
        • As soon I said this PA tried drop­ping from LTF 50MA 
    • Done trad­ing

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas?
          • A move away from Val­ue area around the 52.50 lev­el that was in HYPO2 so when a doji appeared at LTF UKC I took a short
        • What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • Pre­vi­ous swing high
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • Doji at LTF UKC
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 10% of dai­ly risk
        • Entry: 52.457
    • SL
      • 52.532
    • TP
      • 52.330
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at 52.535
      • Loss 7.8 ticks
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas?
          • Broke through TTF 50MA and VWAP and mov­ing away from Val­ue are and thought a long is warranted
        • What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • Above the TTF 50MA and VWAP 
            • PT around UKC 200MA
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?big sharp move up to LTF UKCand then a pull­back so took a shot. If we break the pull backs low I’m out around 52.50
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 10% of dai­ly risk
        • Entry: 52.579
    • SL
      • 52.344
    • TP
      • 52.868
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered half when we showed loss of momen­tum to BO from swing high
        • If we BO I will be look­ing to add to position
        • We returned to prev entry point and I took anoth­er 10% risk think­ing the pat­tern is still valid. I’ll be cov­er­ing at a loss if we break pre­vi­ous can­dle low
        • Cov­ered them all since I felt that PA wasn’t mov­ing as quick­ly as I’d liked
        • P1 52.579
          • TPH at 52.637 win 5.8 ticks
          • TPH at 52.625 win 4.6 ticks
            • Aver­age 5.2 ticks
        • P2 52.609
          • TP at 52.631 Win 2.2 ticks

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • I did well. I took my SL when it got hit. I under­stood that the trade had to go my way straight away and thus I set a very tight SL and took a min­i­mal loss. 
    • Then when I took the oth­er trades I saw that PA was not behav­ing ‘nor­mal­ly’ and I cut them loose. 
  • P/L for the day
Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticks
2019.01.29 12:14:07buy2wti52.609053.1262019.01.29 12:19:0752.6312.20
2019.01.29 12:04:35buy1wti52.57952.37853.1472019.01.29 12:18:0652.6254.60
2019.01.29 12:04:35buy1wti52.57952.34452.8682019.01.29 12:11:2952.6375.80
2019.01.29 11:21:09sell2wti52.45752.53252.332019.01.29 11:22:0752.535-7.80

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • HYPO2 start­ed play­ing out but PA was so slug­gish that not much hap­pened after we went over the 52.50 level
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • Focussing on play­book setups and think­ing in per­cent­ages has real­ly helped me stay calm
      • I can focus bet­ter now when it mat­ters because I start­ed using price alerts around the areas that I would tar­get and stalk for an opportunity
    • What did I do well?
      • I did well to under­stand that today’s trad­ing was going to be dif­fer­ent because the PA was very slug­gish and can­dles had most­ly long bod­ies with almost no wicks and this indi­cates to me that’s some­thing is going on which is not con­ducive to my trad­ing setups
    • What do I need to improve?
      • There was one trade that I could have tak­en but didn’t since it didn’t feel it fit my set­up well but turned out to be the biggest move of the ses­sion. I could have risked a small­er per­cent­age on that move to push myself beyond my com­fort zone a bit. The mar­ket con­di­tions were right I just felt the TTF wasn’t giv­ing me the right sig­nal although the LTF kin­da did. I could have tak­en a chance here with like I said less risk put on. 
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
        • Keep stalk­ing oppor­tu­ni­ties when they are in play
      • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
        • No need to keep mon­i­tor­ing every tick move if my alerts aren’t trig­gered. I know where my entry areas are and I should only focus on those

    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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