Bear Market Trader | Trade Journal on day trading the WTI crude oil market
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01312019 Trade Plan — Good trading day

01312019 Trade Plan — Good trading day

01312019 Trade Plan — Good trad­ing day

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeSunMonTueWedThu
Beers night before106000
Time bed yesterday6:274:2023:19-21:37
woke up12:0413:387:56-6:32
Hours sleep5:379:188:37-8:55
Sleep well?234-4
Neg­a­tive thoughts?233-1
Exer­cise yester(to)day333-4
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon1TC in after­noon 1 scoop1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon-1 TC in the morn­ing, 1 espres­so in afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fastingnonoyes-yes
Water L333-3

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • Over­all health is good. Start­ed exer­cis­ing in the morn­ing so that’s some­thing I want to keep doing. A quick 12-minute work­out. Should be doable. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good just not as sharp as I’d like to be. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Dur­ing AS we bounced off the prev low and then dur­ing LS we con­firmed a dou­ble bot­tom and start­ed our ascend to 55.003 level

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Build 2.098M
  • EIA report
    • Build 0.919M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High 55.003
        • Low 53.204
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 53.90 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We didn’t roll over and BD from DT and the bulls seem to be still in charge
      • Where do you think it should go?
        • A pull­back to LIS is more probable
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • BO from excess and prev high
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • I believe that val­ue is near the prev low around 53.40 area
        • And excess area is around 54.70 near prev high
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We made a shift high­er swing­ing over pre­vi­ous high and thus hav­ing made a HH
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • A hold of excess/prev high lev­els for a short­ing oppor­tu­ni­ty down to 54 area
        • BO from excess/prev high to new highs would be good for a long
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • AS has been inch­ing up slow­ly but might set­tle on a LH

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • Overex­tend over excess area near prev high
      • Short entry around excess area above 54.75
      • PT around 54.40
      • Stretch PT around 54
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • BD from excess area
      • Entry around 54.65
      • PT around 54.40
      • Stretch PT around 54
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • Overex­tend over excess area and pull­back to hold this area to BO from prev high
      • Long entry around excess area
      • PT around 55 level
      • Stretch PT around 56 to 56.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • AS was rolling over and mov­ing away from excess area so I took a chance on the open when we moved down because looks like HYPO2 might be in play
    • Looks like HYPO2 might have start­ed dur­ing the last few hours of AS
    • T1 HTF SRF win 6.8 ticks
    • Look­ing to get in short when PA goes back up to VWAP 
      • This oppor­tu­ni­ty nev­er came as we dropped fur­ther down to LIS
    • Look­ing to see if we are aim­ing to hold this area or if we will reverse here
    • T2 win 9.2 ticks

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas?
          • We moved away from excess area and Lon­don opened break­ing TTF VWAP
        • What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • Below VWAP
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • LTF had bro­ken 200MA on the open so took a short
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 15% of intra­day loss
        • Entry: 54.497
    • SL
      • 54.65
    • TP
      • 54.30 area
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Added a short when we moved back to 200MA and VWAP on the LTF
      • Total risk of 36% of intra­day loss
      • Entry 1
        • 54.497
        • Cov­ered at 54.478
        • Win 1.9 ticks
      • Entry 2
        • 54.557
        • Cov­ered at 54.508
        • Win 4.9 ticks
      • Rea­son for cov­er­ing was that we took a long time to drop and I had expect­ed a big­ger faster move but that didn’t hap­pen. This com­bined with being at the TTF 50MA
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas?
          • We had just bounced off the LIS with a very big bull­ish can­dle and then made a doji can­dle on a pull­back on the TTF
        • What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • Bull­ish can­dle off the 2.0 SD and then the doji into the 1.5 SD
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • LTF showed a poten­tial break of the VWAP and that was my entry
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • I risked 15% of intra­day loss
        • Entry: 54.256
    • SL
      • Hard 54 soft 54.20
    • TP
      • 54.50
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • After tak­ing the first posi­tion, PA dropped against me. I watched PA hav­ing a hard time to drop fur­ther and was look­ing to make a HL on the LTF. When I saw a bull­ish can­dle appear on the HL I added to my posi­tion. When this went in my favor I quick­ly cov­ered at LKC/VWAP to min­i­mize my risk. I then watched the trade trade side­ways along the LKC/VWAP but still above the pre­vi­ous HL and so I stayed in. Then PA ral­lied in my favor and I cov­ered at 54.461 a few ticks shy of my prof­it target.
      • Entry 1
        • 54.256
        • Cov­ered at 54.299
        • Win 4.3 ticks
      • Entry 2
        • 54.412
        • Cov­ered at 54.461
        • Win 4.9 ticks

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:1/31/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute play­book trades
Com­bined Score89
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
10Pre-mar­ket routines8Hypos
10Ses­sion PECS9Real-time analy­sis
9Trad­ing the process7Trade selec­tion
10Dai­ly review9Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
10Progress toward Week­ly goal7Risk Adjust­ed Returns
  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • I did OK. HYPO2 played out but I feel like I could have added a bounce of the LIS. Then again I did well to antic­i­pate the move so I’m hap­py with that.
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • There was one trade I took that I should have not tak­en. And that it still went in my favor is more luck than actu­al­ly fol­low­ing my plan. 
    • What did I do well?
      • I did well to under­stand real-time analy­sis and there­fore I didn’t cov­er my one trade that I felt like didn’t take it at the right moment. I saw that the over­all direc­tion of the move was intact and left the trade to even­tu­al­ly go in my favor and even added to my posi­tion at the point where I should have got­ten in anyway.
    • What do I need to improve?
      • I need to improve my play­book on tak­ing trend-fol­low­ing trades that don’t fit my usu­al setups. I feel like I am los­ing oppor­tu­ni­ties here and I do see sim­i­lar pat­terns emerg­ing in the con­text of my set­up. So this is some­thing that I will keep on working.
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • I learned that being patient gets reward­ed. Wait for your oppor­tu­ni­ty and then strike to kill or be killed. It does not mat­ter. Some­times you win. Some­times you lose. That’s just the nature of the game.
    • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
      • Keep exe­cut­ing play­book setups
    • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
      • Take low R/R trades even though they are more like­ly to hap­pen. Hit rate might be high but the toll of being in the trade could cost more in terms of willpow­er and focus than what it’s worth. Save this for the high­er R/R opportunities


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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