02012019 Trade Plan — Tired but stayed composed - Bear Market Trader
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02012019 Trade Plan — Tired but stayed composed

02012019 Trade Plan — Tired but stayed composed

02012019 Trade Plan — Tired but stayed composed

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeMonTueWedThuFri
Beers night before60005
Time bed yesterday4:2023:19-21:373:37
woke up13:387:56-6:328:04
Hours sleep9:188:37-8:554:27
Sleep well?34-43
Neg­a­tive thoughts?33-11
Exer­cise yester(to)day33-44
Cof­fees today1TC in after­noon 1 scoop1 espres­so spread over 1 hours afternoon-1 TC in the morn­ing, 1 espres­so in afternoon2 weak espres­sos in the afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fastingnoyes-yesno
Water L33-33

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • Over­all health is good just have not been sleep­ing enough since I am trav­el­ing still and this inter­feres with my con­cen­tra­tion. How­ev­er, I am still try­ing to make the time to fol­low my process and keep stay­ing dis­ci­plined in doing my prep work and trading.
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel tired but that is to be expect­ed with less than 5 hours of sleep. I might take a nap in a bit.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Yes­ter­day was an inter­est­ing day. Dur­ing the AS we moved down from excess area down to LIS around 54 level
    • Then reject­ed that lev­el dur­ing LS and moved high­er to 55 lev­el dur­ing NY to only drop hard to below LIS around 53.75 and then ranged around the LIS for the remain­der of the session

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High    55.457
        • Low     53.718
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 54.15/.25 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We failed to break to new highs and hold that lev­el around 55
      • Where do you think it should go?
        • Prob­a­bly a HTF VWAP BD 
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • BD from VWAP
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Val­ue area around 53.90
        • Excess area around 54.95
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Not so much. More of a widen­ing of the excess area but we are still with­in the same range as pre­vi­ous day
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • A BD from HTF VWAP would also be a BD from Val­ue area
        • Or a con­firm­ing as sup­port of this same area
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • AS tried to BO from LIS but then quick­ly dropped to val­ue area and and has been rang­ing around this level

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • A BD from val­ue area (HTF VWAP) could war­rant a drop to HTF 50MA to then reverse back up
    • Entry around prev low of 53.70
    • PT around 53.40
    • Stretch PT around 52.75
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • After HYPO1 plays out we can look for longs around 53.40 level
    • PT Val­ue area around 53.90
    • Stretch PT 54.20
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • BO from val­ue area into LIS and con­sol­i­date then BO from LIS
    • Entry around 54.10
    • PT around 54.25 and then 54.50
    • Stretch PT around 54.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • After LS opened we moved won from val­ue area and I took a short trade
    • T1 win 10.1 ticks
    • We bounced off the TTF 200MA and might go back into val­ue area
    • I only took one oppor­tu­ni­ty but two trades
    • Done trad­ing for today

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas?
          • We dropped from val­ue to prev low
        • What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • Prev low above TTF 200MA
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • Momen­tum picked up towards prev low and it is here I took a short
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 15% of intra­day loss but might add to position
        • Entry: 53.719
    • SL
      • 53.95
    • TP
      • 53.577
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • After I took the short PA moved up against me to the LTF VWAP and I held my com­po­sure and wait­ed to see how it would react to this lev­el around 53.85
        • when I saw that we were not like­ly to BO from this lev­el I added anoth­er short
      • I saw PA pick­ing up on momen­tum and when it had hit 2.0 SD of the LTF I decid­ed to cover
      • Entry 1
        • 53.719
        • Cov­er at 53.692
        • Win 2.7 ticks
      • Entry 2
        • 53.847
        • Cov­er at 53.773
        • Win 7.4 ticks

  • P/L
Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticks
2019.02.01 10:39:36sell2wti53.84753.96353.5772019.02.01 10:47:0653.7737.40
2019.02.01 10:26:46sell2wti53.71953.94853.5772019.02.01 10:47:5553.6922.70

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:2/1/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute play­book trades
Com­bined Score84
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
8Pre-mar­ket routines7Hypos
8Ses­sion PECS9Real-time analy­sis
9Trad­ing the process7Trade selec­tion
9Dai­ly review10Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
10Progress toward Week­ly goal7Risk Adjust­ed Returns
  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • HYPO2 played out which was an alter­ation of HYPO1 so I’m hap­py with that. 
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • I did good when I was in a trade but after­wards I lost focus and was not real­ly watch­ing the screen as much. 2 big rea­sons for this is that I had pock­et­ed prof­its already tak­ing shorts and then when the direc­tion changed like I wrote in my HYPO2 I failed to cap­i­tal­ize on that. It is a bit hard for me to switch gears from short to long and vice versa.
      • I cut myself some slack since I have only slept 4.5 hours last night and I am trav­el­ing. I think I did fair­ly well to keep com­po­sure and not lose my wits or go on tilt. 
    • What did I do well?
      • I did well to under­stand real-time PA and I stayed calm dur­ing trades
    • What do I need to improve?
      • When the mar­ket shows that the direc­tion has changed I should not be hes­i­tant to fol­low and reverse. I nor­mal­ly don’t have a prob­lem with this if I haven’t already tak­en a posi­tion before the rever­sal. It is when I have and then have to switch gears that I hes­i­tate. Prob­a­bly because I don’t want to give back profits. 
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • That even though I’ve very tired I can stay calm and com­posed. I think learn­ing to be patient is key here. Just wait­ing for setups to arise
    • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
      • Be patient
    • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
      • Don’t watch YouTube while trad­ing. I catch myself break­ing this rule when I’m tired and not as sharp as I nor­mal­ly am. As stat­ed before I am tired and trav­el­ing so I cut myself some slack for that. I won­der if I would have been so lenient if I had lost on P/L today though. Food for thought.


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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