Categories
02112019 Monday — HTF VWAP Drop - Bear Market Trader
oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trading, daytrading, trade journal, journaling, trade plan, commodities, playbook, one good trade, becoming a CPT, consistently profitable trader,
1883
post-template-default,single,single-post,postid-1883,single-format-standard,vcwb,bridge,ajax_fade,page_not_loaded,,side_area_uncovered_from_content,qode-theme-ver-9.5,hide_inital_sticky,wpb-js-composer js-comp-ver-4.12,vc_responsive
 

02112019 Monday — HTF VWAP Drop

02112019 Monday — HTF VWAP Drop

02112019 Mon­day — HTF VWAP Drop

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeMon
-2/11
Beers night before0
Time bed yesterday0:12
woke up8:18
Hours sleep8:06
Awake1:27
REM0:45
Light4:34
Deep1:20
Sleep well?3
Mela­tonin0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?2
Exer­cise yester(to)day1
Grat­i­tude5
Joy5
Anger1
Fear1
Focus3
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fastingno
Water L3
Vit­a­minsyes
Cig­a­rettes0

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • After a week of eat­ing and drink­ing a lot because of Chi­nese New Year I am hap­py to get back to my nor­mal routine. 
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel hap­py to get back at trad­ing again. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • We found val­ue around the 52.50 lev­el and have been rang­ing between this area and 53.10 area

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Will come out tomorrow
  • EIA report
    • Will come out Wednesday

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High 53.260
        • Low 52.342
      • Where is the LIS?
        • Looks like the LIS is around the Prev High level
          • 53.20 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We failed to break the 52.50 val­ue lev­el but are test­ing it today
      • Where do you think it should go?
        • Uncer­tain since we are at a big tech­ni­cal lev­el. We are at the HTF LKC and thus this could bring a lot of buy­ing pres­sure into the market.
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • A break from this lev­el would be a hell of a ride down to 51.50 area
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Val­ue area around 52.50
        • Excess area around 52.95
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We migrat­ed down to the 52–53 range
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • A hold at val­ue lev­el would be a good long opportunity
        • A BD from this same lev­el would be an excel­lent short opportunity
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • Since AS open we trad­ed down test­ing 52.20 level

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • Failed swing high into val­ue area and then roll over to even­tu­al­ly BD
      • Short around 52.45
      • PT 52.20
      • Stretched PT around 51.50
  • Hypo 2 Short (then poten­tial long oppor­tu­ni­ty lat­er on)
    • Fake BD from Prev Low to swing high into val­ue area
      • Short around 52.30 area
        • PT around 52
        • Stretched PT 51.50
      • Long around 52 area
        • PT around 52.30 area
        • Stretched PT around 52.50
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • Hold Prev Low to BO from Val­ue area
      • Long around 52.30 area
      • PT 52.50
      • Stretched PT around 52.65

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • At Lon­don open we test­ed Prev Low again, which is also the ses­sion medi­an and then imme­di­ate­ly looked like reject­ing it and I took a trade going long. We are now test­ing the val­ue lev­el high
    • T1 win 7.8 ticks
    • We start­ed off with what looks like a poten­tial HYPO3
    • PA is very slow to progress upwards and am look­ing how it will react to the LIS lev­el around 52.80 (dif­fer­ent than in my mar­ket prep work because I learned how to inter­pret mar­ket pro­file better)
      • Look­ing for a poten­tial short oppor­tu­ni­ty here
      • It looks like we might get one
        • Now that I’m think­ing about this though it will most like­ly just be a TTF PB and thus I’d be bet­ter wait­ing for a long oppor­tu­ni­ty to come along instead of fad­ing this UT
    • T2 Win 1.2 ticks

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas, tech­ni­cal level?
          • Just above the prev low which is also the ses­sion median 
          • In the val­ue area
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • Big drop and then rejec­tion on Lon­don open of this lev­el fol­lowed by a move up
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 15% of intra­day loss
        • Entry: 52.581
    • SL
      • 52.45
    • TP
      • 52.65
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Added after PB to LTF VWAP
        • Entry 52.517
        • SL 52.45
        • TP52.65
      • Cov­ered the 2nd posi­tion at 52.568 for 5.1 ticks because we had hit TTF 1.0 SD which was also the LTF 2.5 SD and 200MA so felt as if we would need more momen­tum to BO from this level
      • First at 52.608 for 2.7 ticks
        • Wait­ed for the first one to cov­er at a prof­it around the same lev­el. This one I feel I took too soon out of FOMO. Next time choose your entries more careful
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • We had dropped down from LIS in what looked like a TTF PB and when PA dropped to VWAP I went long expect­ing buy­ers to come in
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • LTF was show­ing a drop to 200 and 50MA plus a rejec­tion at the val­ue area top
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 15% of intra­day loss
        • Entry: 52.585
    • SL
      • 52.445
    • TP
      • 52.741
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered quick­ly at 52.597 for a 1.2 tick prof­it since this is not a trade I nor­mal­ly take. I want to be a bit more play­ful in tak­ing trades that make sense on the fly but I under­stand that this could be a recipe for dis­as­ter so I will stop doing this. BORING IS GOOD.

Trade Review

  • P/L for the day
-Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticks
T12019.02.11 10:10:26buy2wti52.581052.6862019.02.11 10:23:0452.6082.70
2019.02.11 10:16:41buy2wti52.517052.7622019.02.11 10:20:5252.5685.10
T22019.02.11 12:37:20buy2wti52.58552.44552.7412019.02.11 12:38:2752.5971.20
----------9.00

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:2/11/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute play­book trades
PNL (ticks)9.00
Com­bined Score70
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
8Pre-mar­ket routines7Hypos
5Ses­sion PECS8Real-time analy­sis
7Trad­ing the process6Trade selec­tion
9Dai­ly review5Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
8Progress toward Week­ly goal7Risk Adjust­ed Returns
37Total33

  • Week­ly goal
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • Review
    • On the open I noticed that we were look­ing to hold Prev. Low and I got in long. Even though my direc­tion was right, and even­tu­al­ly I closed off the first posi­tion in a small prof­it I didn’t exe­cute well and got in out of FOMO. I added to my posi­tion on the PB after the first push high that’s when I should have tak­en my first trade. Cov­ered both when PA hit 2.0 SD on the LTF. 2nd trade I took was a scalp and I should not have tak­en this one. It was a PB to VWAP on the TTF and went long and was able to bare­ly scratch it for 1.2 ticks. The rea­son why I should not have tak­en this trade is that the direc­tion of the mar­ket had changed and I was fad­ing against the trend out­side of my trade rules. I took it because I didn’t want to hes­i­tate when mak­ing, what I thought was a good call, in the moment. How­ev­er, it wasn’t a good call. It was more about being right than actu­al­ly look­ing for best R/R opportunities.
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket condition?
    • HYPO3 80% because PA actu­al­ly got high­er and then reversed at the LIS giv­ing me a short opportunity.
  • How well I did I fol­low my process?
    • Not too good. Even though I caught the oppor­tu­ni­ty at the open I failed to catch the sec­ond oppor­tu­ni­ty when we reversed at the LIS even though I was watch­ing the PA. I had pock­et­ed some prof­its and didn’t stay sharp to pull the trig­ger on the mar­ket chang­ing gears. I’ll book this one for my play­book setups (as well as the trades I did take)..
  • How did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al cog­ni­tive state?
    • The first day after hav­ing tak­ing 10 days off was hard but I knew that. My con­cen­tra­tion was mediocre at best. I’ll be sleep­ing ear­ly again and get up hope­ful­ly fresh­er tomorrow.
  • What one thing did I learn today?
    • Keep exe­cut­ing your plan and believe in the odds of it.
  • What one thing from today I need to do more often?
    • Keep putting in the effort in prepar­ing for the session.
  • What one thing from today I need to do less often?
    • Stay with­in the first direc­tion of the ses­sion., If the mar­ket shows you a shift, go with it if it fits your trad­ing rules.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

QODE SEO

Trade Jour­nal on day trad­ing the WTI crude oil market

QODE META

oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trad­ing, day­trad­ing, trade jour­nal, jour­nal­ing, trade plan, com­modi­ties, play­book, one good trade, becom­ing a CPT, con­sis­tent­ly prof­itable trader,

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

No Comments

Post A Comment