
12 Feb 02122019 Tuesday — HYPO1 BO from Prev High
02122019 Tuesday — HYPO1 BO from Prev High
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Mon | Tue |
- | 2/11 | 2/12 |
Beers night before | 0 | 0 |
Time bed yesterday | 0:12 | 22:36 |
woke up | 8:18 | 7:00 |
Hours sleep | 8:06 | 8:24 |
Awake | 1:27 | 1:47 |
REM | 0:45 | 0:55 |
Light | 4:34 | 4:39 |
Deep | 1:20 | 1:03 |
Sleep well? | 3 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 4 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 3 | 4 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon | 1TC in the morning with 1.25 scoop |
Intermittent fasting | no | yes |
Water L | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 0 | 0 |
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- Do a 12-minute workout every morning.
- I did today.
- Do a 12-minute workout every morning.
- How would you describe your overall health?
- Overall health is good but still don’t feel too sharp. I did sleep enough I believe but I kept waking up a lot so I think the quality of my sleep wasn’t sufficient.
- How do you feel?
- I was feeling good in the morning but now around noon I feel a bit tired and lack sharpness. If this continues into the next hour I’ll have my afternoon espresso.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 2
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- Yesterday during the AS we traded above the VAL but underneath the PVAL which was also prev low
- We then held this area and moved up to the LIS around 52.80 level before holding this level as well and making a swing down to PVAL and then retesting the LIS again before we had the big drop to 51.60s during NY and the consequent recovery of price back up to the sessions’s POC
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Will come out today
- EIA report
- Will come out tomorrow
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 53.043
- Low 51.539
- Where is the LIS?
- 52.60 area
- What didn’t happen?
- We had a big drop to 51.54 level but then didn’t break down further, rather pushed price back up to where we started the session
- Where do you think it should go?
- It could be that we see a PB to LIS area or PVAL before we break the medium term DT we are in
- Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
- Short around prev high and long around PVAL
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Excess area around 52.80 area
- Value area around 52.25 area
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- We had a big rejection of the 51.50 area and could see a reversal of the medium term DT that we had for the last week
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- Long at Excess, LIS, or Value areas
- Short at Excess BD
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- The AS started by rallying from LIS and BO from Excess area and made a new high so it will be interesting to see if this level can hold up as support
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Long
- Excess area holding as support
- Entry around 52.90
- PT around HOD 53.20 area
- Stretch PT around 53.60
- Excess area holding as support
- Hypo 2 Long
- LIS area holding as support
- Entry around 52.60
- PT around Excess area 52.80
- Stretched PT around Prev High 53.043
- LIS area holding as support
- Hypo 3 Short
- BD from Excess into LIS
- Entry around 52.80
- PT around 52.60
- Stretched PT around 52.25 Value area
- BD from Excess into LIS
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by sticking to playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- HYPO1 looks like it might be in play before LS opened since we bounced of the 52.90 as I said and we might be looking to rally from here on
- I will not get in at this level because it’s a terrible R/R but what I will do is stalk a possible PB
- I am doing good by being patient and not trying to chase the market. Wait for an optimal opportunity that has confirmation
- PA pulled back to LTF VWAP which is also 50MA and I thought of going long here but since the move had retraced about 80% of the prior rally up I hesitated and didn’t take the trade. Good that I didn’t take the trade since it wouldn’t have been according to my rules
- Looks like not much action going on so far
- Stalking a potential BO from TTF 200MA/UKC around 53.15 area
- Spread is wider
- I am waiting for the BO and then a consequent PB so that I can get Long or a potential short if we fail to BO
- T1 win 11.6 ticks
- Now waiting to see if we have a follow-up of this move or if this proves to be a failed BO
- This could be the making of a bearish candle at HOD on the TTF so if this confirms I’ll be shorting from here on
- PA quickly dropped further not giving me much of an entry. Going to stalk PB and confirmation on the LTF
- We have a lot of bulls pushing back around LTF and TTF VWAP levels which is also the prev low
- We started an UT in accordance with my HYPO1 but I failed to capitalize further on this. Details are underneath in the daily report card
- I am done trading for today
- HYPO1 looks like it might be in play before LS opened since we bounced of the 52.90 as I said and we might be looking to rally from here on
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- HYPO1 we bounced off excess into TTF 200MA
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- We BO from LTF UKC and made a PB to that same level so I went long
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 15% of intraday loss on hard stop and 5% on soft
- Entry: 53.187
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- Hard: 53.016 Soft: 53.10
- TP
- 53.580
- Trade Management
- I feel calm even though I think that this trade will go against me since BOs usually fail
- We ducked under the LTF UKC and I’m looking to see how PA will react to the VWAP
- Prev low is just below it
- We stayed over it and then PA abruptly moved higher to 53.30 and this looked like stop hunting so I closed off the trade at 53.303
- Win 11.6 ticks
- We stayed over it and then PA abruptly moved higher to 53.30 and this looked like stop hunting so I closed off the trade at 53.303
- Prev low is just below it
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- P/L for the day
- | Open Time | Type | Size | Item | Price | S / L | T / P | Close Time | Price | P/L ticks | Duration |
T1 | 2019.02.12 11:28:26 | buy | 2 | wti | 53.187 | 53.017 | 53.58 | 2019.02.12 11:47:29 | 53.303 | 11.60 | 00:19:03 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 11.60 | - |
Daily Report Card
Date: | 2/12/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute playbook trades |
PNL (ticks) | 11.60 | ||
Combined Score | 74 | ||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
10 | Pre-market routines | 9 | Hypos |
6 | Session PECS | 6 | Real-time analysis |
7 | Trading the process | 5 | Trade selection |
9 | Daily review | 7 | Trade Execution & Mgmt. |
8 | Progress toward Weekly goal | 7 | Risk Adjusted Returns |
40 | Total | 34 | |
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Long
- Excess area holding as support
- Entry around 52.90
- PT around HOD 53.20 area
- Stretch PT around 53.60
- Excess area holding as support
- Hypo 2 Long
- LIS area holding as support
- Entry around 52.60
- PT around Excess area 52.80
- Stretched PT around Prev High 53.043
- LIS area holding as support
- Hypo 3 Short
- BD from Excess into LIS
- Entry around 52.80
- PT around 52.60
- Stretched PT around 52.25 Value area
- BD from Excess into LIS
- Weekly Goal
- Perform well by sticking to playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- Review
- At the open I saw that there wasn’t much action going on. Looked like a lot of indecision in the market probably due to being at a HTF technical level. I did well to stay out of it. Then when I saw that we were looking to BO from LTF UKC I waited for a PB and went long. We then consolidated in yet another triangle at the 53.15 level (we had one right after the open) and after a test of the LTF UKC we had what looked like a stop hunt. PA rallied faster than usual as if taking out stops so I quickly covered my position for a 11.6 tick profit.
- Straight afterwards we did drop hard all the way down to TTF VWAP level at 52.99 level and I thought we’d be looking at a failed BO from this point on. So I looked to stalk a PB to take a short back into the excess area around 52.85 and possible down into the LIS area around 52.65 area, but this never came. What came was a very bullish candle at the prev low TTF VWAP level followed by another bullish candle at almost the same level only 2 bars later and we then started the UT I hypothesized in my HYPO1. This confused me a little bit since I thought initially HYPO1 had started during the last couple of hours of the Asian session before EU open so when I saw this failure to continue the UT I was sure this would be a failed BO and only went looking for shorts. I failed to read the real-time price action. On the one hand I’m happy that my HYPO1 played out almost to a tee but I failed to take advantage of the opportunities.
- I am new to reading the market profile (within the context of my trading rules) so I want to give myself some slack for not capitalizing on the opportunities, but at the same time I feel I could have been more aggressive but I think that will come in time when I build my confidence.
- Straight afterwards we did drop hard all the way down to TTF VWAP level at 52.99 level and I thought we’d be looking at a failed BO from this point on. So I looked to stalk a PB to take a short back into the excess area around 52.85 and possible down into the LIS area around 52.65 area, but this never came. What came was a very bullish candle at the prev low TTF VWAP level followed by another bullish candle at almost the same level only 2 bars later and we then started the UT I hypothesized in my HYPO1. This confused me a little bit since I thought initially HYPO1 had started during the last couple of hours of the Asian session before EU open so when I saw this failure to continue the UT I was sure this would be a failed BO and only went looking for shorts. I failed to read the real-time price action. On the one hand I’m happy that my HYPO1 played out almost to a tee but I failed to take advantage of the opportunities.
- At the open I saw that there wasn’t much action going on. Looked like a lot of indecision in the market probably due to being at a HTF technical level. I did well to stay out of it. Then when I saw that we were looking to BO from LTF UKC I waited for a PB and went long. We then consolidated in yet another triangle at the 53.15 level (we had one right after the open) and after a test of the LTF UKC we had what looked like a stop hunt. PA rallied faster than usual as if taking out stops so I quickly covered my position for a 11.6 tick profit.
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- HYPO1 95%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I did well here but still feel I was not sharp enough. I am doing well by placing my alerts and following PA when they go off. This helps me with my concentration and feeling of overtrading since I don’t have to keep monitoring PA the whole time.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- I learned that I am getting better at reading market profile but that I need more experience to actually capitalize on the opportunities it provides.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Keep doing my prep work!
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Be distracted with things unrelated to trading during trading hours. If I’m not monitoring PA I should not take that as an excuse to deviate from trading and take calls, emails, etc.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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