02122019 Tuesday — HYPO1 BO from Prev High

12 Feb 02122019 Tuesday — HYPO1 BO from Prev High

02122019 Tues­day — HYPO1 BO from Prev High

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Mon	Tue
-	2/11	2/12
Beers night before	0	0
Time bed yesterday	0:12	22:36
woke up	8:18	7:00
Hours sleep	8:06	8:24
Awake	1:27	1:47
REM	0:45	0:55
Light	4:34	4:39
Deep	1:20	1:03
Sleep well?	3	2
Mela­tonin	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	2	1
Exer­cise yester(to)day	1	4
Grat­i­tude	5	5
Joy	5	5
Anger	1	1
Fear	1	1
Focus	3	4
Cof­fees today	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon	1TC in the morn­ing with 1.25 scoop
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	yes
Water L	3	3
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	0	0

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Do a 12-minute work­out every morning.
    • I did today.
• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • Over­all health is good but still don’t feel too sharp. I did sleep enough I believe but I kept wak­ing up a lot so I think the qual­i­ty of my sleep wasn’t sufficient. 
• How do you feel?
  • I was feel­ing good in the morn­ing but now around noon I feel a bit tired and lack sharp­ness. If this con­tin­ues into the next hour I’ll have my after­noon espresso.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
  • Yes­ter­day dur­ing the AS we trad­ed above the VAL but under­neath the PVAL which was also prev low
  • We then held this area and moved up to the LIS around 52.80 lev­el before hold­ing this lev­el as well and mak­ing a swing down to PVAL and then retest­ing the LIS again before we had the big drop to 51.60s dur­ing NY and the con­se­quent recov­ery of price back up to the sessions’s POC

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Will come out today
• EIA report
  • Will come out tomorrow 

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
      • High 53.043
      • Low 51.539
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 52.60 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We had a big drop to 51.54 lev­el but then didn’t break down fur­ther, rather pushed price back up to where we start­ed the session
    • Where do you think it should go?
      • It could be that we see a PB to LIS area or PVAL before we break the medi­um term DT we are in
    • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
      • Short around prev high and long around PVAL
• TTF
  • Dialling in on opportunities
    • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
      • Excess area around 52.80 area
      • Val­ue area around 52.25 area
    • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
      • We had a big rejec­tion of the 51.50 area and could see a rever­sal of the medi­um term DT that we had for the last week
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • Long at Excess, LIS, or Val­ue areas
      • Short at Excess BD
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • The AS start­ed by ral­ly­ing from LIS and BO from Excess area and made a new high so it will be inter­est­ing to see if this lev­el can hold up as support

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • Excess area hold­ing as support 
    • Entry around 52.90
    • PT around HOD 53.20 area
    • Stretch PT around 53.60
• Hypo 2 Long
  • LIS area hold­ing as support 
    • Entry around 52.60
    • PT around Excess area 52.80
    • Stretched PT around Prev High 53.043
• Hypo 3 Short
  • BD from Excess into LIS
    • Entry around 52.80
    • PT around 52.60
    • Stretched PT around 52.25 Val­ue area

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • HYPO1 looks like it might be in play before LS opened since we bounced of the 52.90 as I said and we might be look­ing to ral­ly from here on
    • I will not get in at this lev­el because it’s a ter­ri­ble R/R but what I will do is stalk a pos­si­ble PB
    • I am doing good by being patient and not try­ing to chase the mar­ket. Wait for an opti­mal oppor­tu­ni­ty that has confirmation
    • PA pulled back to LTF VWAP which is also 50MA and I thought of going long here but since the move had retraced about 80% of the pri­or ral­ly up I hes­i­tat­ed and didn’t take the trade. Good that I didn’t take the trade since it wouldn’t have been accord­ing to my rules
    • Looks like not much action going on so far
  • Stalk­ing a poten­tial BO from TTF 200MA/UKC around 53.15 area
    • Spread is wider 
    • I am wait­ing for the BO and then a con­se­quent PB so that I can get Long or a poten­tial short if we fail to BO
      • T1 win 11.6 ticks
      • Now wait­ing to see if we have a fol­low-up of this move or if this proves to be a failed BO
  • This could be the mak­ing of a bear­ish can­dle at HOD on the TTF so if this con­firms I’ll be short­ing from here on
    • PA quick­ly dropped fur­ther not giv­ing me much of an entry. Going to stalk PB and con­fir­ma­tion on the LTF
    • We have a lot of bulls push­ing back around LTF and TTF VWAP lev­els which is also the prev low
    • We start­ed an UT in accor­dance with my HYPO1 but I failed to cap­i­tal­ize fur­ther on this. Details are under­neath in the dai­ly report card
  • I am done trad­ing for today

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
        • HYPO1 we bounced off excess into TTF 200MA
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • We BO from LTF UKC and made a PB to that same lev­el so I went long
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 15% of intra­day loss on hard stop and 5% on soft
      • Entry: 53.187
  • SL
    • Hard: 53.016 Soft: 53.10
  • TP
    • 53.580
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I feel calm even though I think that this trade will go against me since BOs usu­al­ly fail
    • We ducked under the LTF UKC and I’m look­ing to see how PA will react to the VWAP
      • Prev low is just below it
        • We stayed over it and then PA abrupt­ly moved high­er to 53.30 and this looked like stop hunt­ing so I closed off the trade at 53.303
          • Win 11.6 ticks

Trade Review

• P/L for the day

-	Open Time	Type	Size	Item	Price	S / L	T / P	Close Time	Price	P/L ticks	Dura­tion
T1	2019.02.12 11:28:26	buy	2	wti	53.187	53.017	53.58	2019.02.12 11:47:29	53.303	11.60	00:19:03
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	11.60	-

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:	2/12/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute play­book trades
PNL (ticks)	11.60
Com­bined Score	74
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
10	Pre-mar­ket routines	9	Hypos
6	Ses­sion PECS	6	Real-time analy­sis
7	Trad­ing the process	5	Trade selec­tion
9	Dai­ly review	7	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
8	Progress toward Week­ly goal	7	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
40	Total	34

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • Excess area hold­ing as support 
    • Entry around 52.90
    • PT around HOD 53.20 area
    • Stretch PT around 53.60
• Hypo 2 Long
  • LIS area hold­ing as support 
    • Entry around 52.60
    • PT around Excess area 52.80
    • Stretched PT around Prev High 53.043
• Hypo 3 Short
  • BD from Excess into LIS
    • Entry around 52.80
    • PT around 52.60
    • Stretched PT around 52.25 Val­ue area

• Week­ly Goal
  • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
• Review
  • At the open I saw that there wasn’t much action going on. Looked like a lot of inde­ci­sion in the mar­ket prob­a­bly due to being at a HTF tech­ni­cal lev­el. I did well to stay out of it. Then when I saw that we were look­ing to BO from LTF UKC I wait­ed for a PB and went long. We then con­sol­i­dat­ed in yet anoth­er tri­an­gle at the 53.15 lev­el (we had one right after the open) and after a test of the LTF UKC we had what looked like a stop hunt. PA ral­lied faster than usu­al as if tak­ing out stops so I quick­ly cov­ered my posi­tion for a 11.6 tick profit. 
    • Straight after­wards we did drop hard all the way down to TTF VWAP lev­el at 52.99 lev­el and I thought we’d be look­ing at a failed BO from this point on. So I looked to stalk a PB to take a short back into the excess area around 52.85 and pos­si­ble down into the LIS area around 52.65 area, but this nev­er came. What came was a very bull­ish can­dle at the prev low TTF VWAP lev­el fol­lowed by anoth­er bull­ish can­dle at almost the same lev­el only 2 bars lat­er and we then start­ed the UT I hypoth­e­sized in my HYPO1. This con­fused me a lit­tle bit since I thought ini­tial­ly HYPO1 had start­ed dur­ing the last cou­ple of hours of the Asian ses­sion before EU open so when I saw this fail­ure to con­tin­ue the UT I was sure this would be a failed BO and only went look­ing for shorts. I failed to read the real-time price action. On the one hand I’m hap­py that my HYPO1 played out almost to a tee but I failed to take advan­tage of the opportunities.
      • I am new to read­ing the mar­ket pro­file (with­in the con­text of my trad­ing rules) so I want to give myself some slack for not cap­i­tal­iz­ing on the oppor­tu­ni­ties, but at the same time I feel I could have been more aggres­sive but I think that will come in time when I build my confidence. 
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • HYPO1 95%
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I did well here but still feel I was not sharp enough. I am doing well by plac­ing my alerts and fol­low­ing PA when they go off. This helps me with my con­cen­tra­tion and feel­ing of over­trad­ing since I don’t have to keep mon­i­tor­ing PA the whole time. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I learned that I am get­ting bet­ter at read­ing mar­ket pro­file but that I need more expe­ri­ence to actu­al­ly cap­i­tal­ize on the oppor­tu­ni­ties it provides. 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Keep doing my prep work!
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Be dis­tract­ed with things unre­lat­ed to trad­ing dur­ing trad­ing hours. If I’m not mon­i­tor­ing PA I should not take that as an excuse to devi­ate from trad­ing and take calls, emails, etc.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.