02132019 Wednesday — Sick day, just sit and observe

13 Feb 02132019 Wednesday — Sick day, just sit and observe

02132019 Wednes­day — Sick day, just sit and observe

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • 12 minute workout
    • Didn’t do it because I’m sick
• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • SICK
• How do you feel?
  • Very tired
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 1

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
  • Yes­ter­day we BO from the prev high in a move that looks like we broke the medi­um term DT on the HTF to a pre­vi­ous HTF swing high at 54.34 level

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • -0.998M
• EIA report
  • Comes out lat­er on today
    • Fore­cast 2.668M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
      • High    54.340
      • Low    52.606
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 53.75 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t rollover resum­ing the HTF DT instead we made, what looks like a poten­tial­ly sig­nif­i­cant HL
    • Where do you think it should go?
      • I expect more upside on the short to medi­um term, per­haps up into the 55s
    • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
      • A hold of LIS could war­rant a big long oppor­tu­ni­ty. Obvi­ous­ly the oppo­site could be said of a BD from LIS
• TTF
  • Dialling in on opportunities
    • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
      • Excess area is around the 54.1 area
      • Val­ue area around 53.15 area
    • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
      • We lev­eled up into a new range of 53.20s to 54.20
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • Hold of LIS is Long and BD is Short
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • The AS ranged between the LIS and excess are to now test the LIS at Lon­don open

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • Hold of LIS
    • Entry around 53.80
    • PT around 54
    • Stretched PT around 54.30 area
• Hypo 2 Short
  • BD from LIS
    • Entry around 53.70
    • PT around 53.20
    • Stretched PT around 52.80 (not likely)

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • NOTE
    • When near TTF tech­ni­cal lev­el such as the 50MA wait for a dou­ble con­fir­ma­tion on the LTF

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
        • Just above the LIS and TTF 50MA
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • Bull­ish can­dle into the bot­tom of LIS area
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 15% hard 8% soft of intra­day loss
      • Entry: 53.836
  • SL
    • 53.70
  • TP
    • 54
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I fig­ured after tak­ing this trade that I should have used small­er siz­ing so when PA went against me I tried to quick­ly cov­er half of my posi­tion and then the oth­er half when it went fur­ther only to see PA move in my favor after clos­ing off. Such is the life of a trad­er (some­times)

Trade Review

• P/L for the day

-	Open Time	Type	Size	Item	Price	S / L	T / P	Close Time	Price	P/L ticks	Dura­tion
T1	2019.02.13 10:38:40	buy	1	wti	53.836	0	53.939	2019.02.13 10:56:02	53.76	-7.60	00:17:22
2019.02.13 10:38:40	buy	1	wti	53.836	0	54.061	2019.02.13 10:53:50	53.759	-7.70	00:15:10
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.65	-

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:	2/13/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute play­book trades
PNL (ticks)	11.60
Com­bined Score	69
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
7	Pre-mar­ket routines	9	Hypos
5	Ses­sion PECS	9	Real-time analy­sis
5	Trad­ing the process	6	Trade selec­tion
5	Dai­ly review	7	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
9	Progress toward Week­ly goal	7	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
31	Total	38

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • Hold of LIS
    • Entry around 53.80
    • PT around 54
    • Stretched PT around 54.30 area
• Hypo 2 Short
  • BD from LIS
    • Entry around 53.70
    • PT around 53.20
    • Stretched PT around 52.80 (not likely)

• Week­ly Goal
  • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
• Review
  • I took a trade after the open and quick­ly start­ed think­ing I should not have trad­ed at all since I am not feel­ing well today. I got sick and as a result didn’t sleep much last night. I still think I should not have trad­ed but since I did I should have also used a small­er size than I nor­mal­ly trade which I did­n’t. Real­iz­ing this I looked to cov­er half of my posi­tion and when I thought it was going to hit my soft stop loss I chose to cov­er the oth­er half too. Then I saw the mar­ket go in my favor. Such is life some­times. I still feel good about going flat since I was not in a good state of mind to be trading. 
  • I then start­ed look­ing at the mar­ket and think­ing if I would trade where would I get in and this helped me stay in touch with real-time analysis.
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • HYPO1 85%
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I am sick so I’m hap­py that I stayed out of the mar­ket. Even though I saw some oppor­tu­ni­ties and real­ly felt like trading. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • There is always anoth­er oppor­tu­ni­ty to trade. It’s OK to miss a day or two.
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Mar­ket prep
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Take trades when I know I’m not in the best state.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.