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02132019 Wednesday — Sick day, just sit and observe - Bear Market Trader
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02132019 Wednesday — Sick day, just sit and observe

13 Feb 02132019 Wednesday — Sick day, just sit and observe

Posted at 21:23h in Trading Plan by
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02132019 Wednes­day — Sick day, just sit and observe

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • 12 minute workout
      • Didn’t do it because I’m sick
  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • SICK
  • How do you feel?
    • Very tired
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 1

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Yes­ter­day we BO from the prev high in a move that looks like we broke the medi­um term DT on the HTF to a pre­vi­ous HTF swing high at 54.34 level

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • -0.998M
  • EIA report
    • Comes out lat­er on today
      • Fore­cast 2.668M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High    54.340
        • Low    52.606
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 53.75 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We didn’t rollover resum­ing the HTF DT instead we made, what looks like a poten­tial­ly sig­nif­i­cant HL
      • Where do you think it should go?
        • I expect more upside on the short to medi­um term, per­haps up into the 55s
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • A hold of LIS could war­rant a big long oppor­tu­ni­ty. Obvi­ous­ly the oppo­site could be said of a BD from LIS
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Excess area is around the 54.1 area
        • Val­ue area around 53.15 area
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We lev­eled up into a new range of 53.20s to 54.20
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • Hold of LIS is Long and BD is Short
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • The AS ranged between the LIS and excess are to now test the LIS at Lon­don open

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • Hold of LIS
      • Entry around 53.80
      • PT around 54
      • Stretched PT around 54.30 area
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • BD from LIS
      • Entry around 53.70
      • PT around 53.20
      • Stretched PT around 52.80 (not likely)

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • NOTE
      • When near TTF tech­ni­cal lev­el such as the 50MA wait for a dou­ble con­fir­ma­tion on the LTF

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • Just above the LIS and TTF 50MA
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • Bull­ish can­dle into the bot­tom of LIS area
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 15% hard 8% soft of intra­day loss
        • Entry: 53.836
    • SL
      • 53.70
    • TP
      • 54
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I fig­ured after tak­ing this trade that I should have used small­er siz­ing so when PA went against me I tried to quick­ly cov­er half of my posi­tion and then the oth­er half when it went fur­ther only to see PA move in my favor after clos­ing off. Such is the life of a trad­er (some­times)

Trade Review

  • P/L for the day
-Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticksDura­tion
T12019.02.13 10:38:40buy1wti53.836053.9392019.02.13 10:56:0253.76-7.6000:17:22
2019.02.13 10:38:40buy1wti53.836054.0612019.02.13 10:53:5053.759-7.7000:15:10
-----------7.65-

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:2/13/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute play­book trades
PNL (ticks)11.60
Com­bined Score69
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
7Pre-mar­ket routines9Hypos
5Ses­sion PECS9Real-time analy­sis
5Trad­ing the process6Trade selec­tion
5Dai­ly review7Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
9Progress toward Week­ly goal7Risk Adjust­ed Returns
31Total38


Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • Hold of LIS
      • Entry around 53.80
      • PT around 54
      • Stretched PT around 54.30 area
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • BD from LIS
      • Entry around 53.70
      • PT around 53.20
      • Stretched PT around 52.80 (not likely)

  • Week­ly Goal
    • Per­form well by stick­ing to play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • Review
    • I took a trade after the open and quick­ly start­ed think­ing I should not have trad­ed at all since I am not feel­ing well today. I got sick and as a result didn’t sleep much last night. I still think I should not have trad­ed but since I did I should have also used a small­er size than I nor­mal­ly trade which I did­n’t. Real­iz­ing this I looked to cov­er half of my posi­tion and when I thought it was going to hit my soft stop loss I chose to cov­er the oth­er half too. Then I saw the mar­ket go in my favor. Such is life some­times. I still feel good about going flat since I was not in a good state of mind to be trading. 
    • I then start­ed look­ing at the mar­ket and think­ing if I would trade where would I get in and this helped me stay in touch with real-time analysis.
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • HYPO1 85%
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I am sick so I’m hap­py that I stayed out of the mar­ket. Even though I saw some oppor­tu­ni­ties and real­ly felt like trading. 
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • There is always anoth­er oppor­tu­ni­ty to trade. It’s OK to miss a day or two.
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Mar­ket prep
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Take trades when I know I’m not in the best state.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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