
13 Feb 02132019 Wednesday — Sick day, just sit and observe
02132019 Wednesday — Sick day, just sit and observe
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- 12 minute workout
- Didn’t do it because I’m sick
- 12 minute workout
- How would you describe your overall health?
- SICK
- How do you feel?
- Very tired
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 1
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- Yesterday we BO from the prev high in a move that looks like we broke the medium term DT on the HTF to a previous HTF swing high at 54.34 level
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- -0.998M
- EIA report
- Comes out later on today
- Forecast 2.668M
- Comes out later on today
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 54.340
- Low 52.606
- Where is the LIS?
- 53.75 area
- What didn’t happen?
- We didn’t rollover resuming the HTF DT instead we made, what looks like a potentially significant HL
- Where do you think it should go?
- I expect more upside on the short to medium term, perhaps up into the 55s
- Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
- A hold of LIS could warrant a big long opportunity. Obviously the opposite could be said of a BD from LIS
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Excess area is around the 54.1 area
- Value area around 53.15 area
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- We leveled up into a new range of 53.20s to 54.20
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- Hold of LIS is Long and BD is Short
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- The AS ranged between the LIS and excess are to now test the LIS at London open
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Long
- Hold of LIS
- Entry around 53.80
- PT around 54
- Stretched PT around 54.30 area
- Hold of LIS
- Hypo 2 Short
- BD from LIS
- Entry around 53.70
- PT around 53.20
- Stretched PT around 52.80 (not likely)
- BD from LIS
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by sticking to playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- NOTE
- When near TTF technical level such as the 50MA wait for a double confirmation on the LTF
- NOTE
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- Just above the LIS and TTF 50MA
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- Bullish candle into the bottom of LIS area
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 15% hard 8% soft of intraday loss
- Entry: 53.836
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 53.70
- TP
- 54
- Trade Management
- I figured after taking this trade that I should have used smaller sizing so when PA went against me I tried to quickly cover half of my position and then the other half when it went further only to see PA move in my favor after closing off. Such is the life of a trader (sometimes)
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- P/L for the day
- | Open Time | Type | Size | Item | Price | S / L | T / P | Close Time | Price | P/L ticks | Duration |
T1 | 2019.02.13 10:38:40 | buy | 1 | wti | 53.836 | 0 | 53.939 | 2019.02.13 10:56:02 | 53.76 | -7.60 | 00:17:22 |
2019.02.13 10:38:40 | buy | 1 | wti | 53.836 | 0 | 54.061 | 2019.02.13 10:53:50 | 53.759 | -7.70 | 00:15:10 | |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | -7.65 | - |
Daily Report Card
Date: | 2/13/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute playbook trades |
PNL (ticks) | 11.60 | ||
Combined Score | 69 | ||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
7 | Pre-market routines | 9 | Hypos |
5 | Session PECS | 9 | Real-time analysis |
5 | Trading the process | 6 | Trade selection |
5 | Daily review | 7 | Trade Execution & Mgmt. |
9 | Progress toward Weekly goal | 7 | Risk Adjusted Returns |
31 | Total | 38 | |
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Long
- Hold of LIS
- Entry around 53.80
- PT around 54
- Stretched PT around 54.30 area
- Hold of LIS
- Hypo 2 Short
- BD from LIS
- Entry around 53.70
- PT around 53.20
- Stretched PT around 52.80 (not likely)
- BD from LIS
- Weekly Goal
- Perform well by sticking to playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- Review
- I took a trade after the open and quickly started thinking I should not have traded at all since I am not feeling well today. I got sick and as a result didn’t sleep much last night. I still think I should not have traded but since I did I should have also used a smaller size than I normally trade which I didn’t. Realizing this I looked to cover half of my position and when I thought it was going to hit my soft stop loss I chose to cover the other half too. Then I saw the market go in my favor. Such is life sometimes. I still feel good about going flat since I was not in a good state of mind to be trading.
- I then started looking at the market and thinking if I would trade where would I get in and this helped me stay in touch with real-time analysis.
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- HYPO1 85%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I am sick so I’m happy that I stayed out of the market. Even though I saw some opportunities and really felt like trading.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- There is always another opportunity to trade. It’s OK to miss a day or two.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Market prep
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Take trades when I know I’m not in the best state.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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