
14 Feb 02142019 Thursday — choppy prev high rejection
02142019 Thursday — choppy prev high rejection
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Mon | Tue | Wed (sick) | Thu |
- | 2/11 | 2/12 | 2/13 | 2/14 |
Beers night before | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Time bed yesterday | 0:12 | 22:36 | 22:04 | 23:00 |
woke up | 8:18 | 7:00 | 1:45 | 8:26 |
Hours sleep | 8:06 | 8:24 | 3:41 | 9:26 |
Awake | 1:27 | 1:47 | - | 1:38 |
REM | 0:45 | 0:55 | - | 0:31 |
Light | 4:34 | 4:39 | - | 7:38 |
Deep | 1:20 | 1:03 | - | 2:35 |
Sleep well? | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 1x | 1x |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Focus | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon | 1TC in the morning with 1.25 scoop | 2 espressos | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours afternoon |
Intermittent fasting | no | yes | no | no |
Water L | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- 12 min workout
- Didn’t do it today. My lame excuse is that I was sick yesterday and felt like staying in bed a little longer. COME ON IT’S ONLY 12 MINUTES!
- I need an accountability buddy or the way we say it the ‘accountabilibuddy’. I’ll ask my friend to help me with this.
- Promised I’ll pay for pool and drinks if I miss a day.
- I need an accountability buddy or the way we say it the ‘accountabilibuddy’. I’ll ask my friend to help me with this.
- Didn’t do it today. My lame excuse is that I was sick yesterday and felt like staying in bed a little longer. COME ON IT’S ONLY 12 MINUTES!
- 12 min workout
- How would you describe your overall health?
- Besides being sick yesterday I feel much better today. Although not the best yet of course. Yesterday I slept very little. Kept waking up etc. Slept more last night so I hope I recovered for the most part. I do feel better.
- For some reason my fitbit registered that I slept earlier than I actually did and so the data for last night is not correct. Let’s see if that happens again.
- How do you feel?
- I feel good but will have to see how I feel around EU session open.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- Yesterday we traded above the LIS of 53.73 and tested this level twice before rallying and breaking through the prev high of 54.34 during NY
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- 2/12
- -0998M
- 2/12
- EIA report
- 2/13
- Forecast 2.668M, “actual” number 3.633M
- There was a bigger build than forecast which “should” put selling pressure on the market. As always let’s see how the market reacts.
- 2/13
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 54.928
- Low 53.617
- Where is the LIS?
- 53.97 area
- What didn’t happen?
- We failed to reach the 55s as I thought could happen yesterday but got very close and then got pushed back hard by the bears
- Where do you think it should go?
- It’s not as clear today I feel. I think we might see a PB on the HTF before we continue this short to medium term UT however it could also be that we overextend into the 55s and then roll over to initiate the rotation down
- Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
- Overextend into 55s and then short it down to 53.60 and stretched PT around 52.80 (for the medium to longer term)
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Value area around 53.70 area
- Excess area around 54.35 area
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- We did trade higher however I feel that we didn’t have a real level changing session yesterday. Yes we migrated higher but not high enough to say the bulls are still in charge.
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- If we hold the excess area as support we could see a good long opportunity into prev high and potentially beyond into the 55.30s
- If we BO however, I believe it is possible to see a move down to LIS 53.97 and perhaps to value area 53.70
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- During the AS we moved from excess area to a swing high at 54.50 before testing excess area at 54.35 level. So let’s see if this area is going to hold or will we see a BD
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Long, then short
- Hold excess area to rally overextended into prev high to then roll over
- Entry Long around excess area 54.35
- PT around prev high 54.80s
- Potential BO from prev high could see a stretched PT of 54.30
- Entry short around prev high 54.70/80
- PT excess area 54.35 area
- Stretched PT LIS 54 area
- Entry Long around excess area 54.35
- Hold excess area to rally overextended into prev high to then roll over
- Hypo 2 Short
- BD from excess area
- Entry around 54.35 area
- PT around LIS 54 area
- Stretched PT around value 53.70 area
- Potential long opportunity from LIS back to excess area
- BD from excess area
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- Looks like HYPO1 was in play during the last couple of hours of the AS and let’s see how LS open will react to this level
- At the open we dropped to LTF VWAP/UKC and I thought of taking a long in case there was a BO attempt from prev high but didn’t even though TTF looks bullish but the LTF not too much
- And I still think that the big opportunity is around 55.20 for the big roll over and short
- If we fail to BO I am looking to short with PT around 54.55
- Possible BO attempt from prev high
- T1 Short Loss 2.5 ticks
- I think we might be getting ready to BO from prev high after all since there are still a lot of buyers around the 54.80 level
- If we do BO I will be looking for a PB to get in long beyond this level
- The TTF and LTF are both in an UT so this could be a trend trend play
- T2 Long
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- Prev high
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- 2nd touch of prev high area was a bearish candle although not too convincing
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 15% of intraday loss
- Entry: 54.902
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 55.097
- TP
- 54.70
- Trade Management
- I think this will go against me
- Not many are hitting the bid yet think the offer will lift
- Buyers are trying to lift the bid
- Scratched half at 54.918
- And the other half at 54.936
- Loss 2.5 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- Drop from Prev High to TTF VWAP
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- LTF hadn’t broken down from 50MA yet and was likely to return
- What risk am I going to put on?
- Hard 15% soft 7%
- Entry: 54.786
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 54.699
- TP
- 54.919
- Trade Management
- PA didn’t look like it wanted to cross back over the 50MAso I covered at 54.818 scratch at 3.2 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- P/L for the day
- | Open Time | Type | Size | Item | Price | S / L | T / P | Close Time | Price | P/L ticks | Duration |
T1 | 2019.02.14 10:25:15 | sell | 1 | wti | 54.902 | 54.963 | 54.585 | 2019.02.14 10:51:46 | 54.936 | -3.40 | 00:26:31 |
2019.02.14 10:25:15 | sell | 1 | wti | 54.902 | 55.099 | 54.684 | 2019.02.14 10:47:33 | 54.918 | -1.60 | 00:22:18 | |
T2 | 2019.02.14 11:58:49 | buy | 2 | wti | 54.786 | 54.699 | 54.919 | 2019.02.14 12:04:03 | 54.818 | 3.20 | 00:05:14 |
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.70 | - |
Daily Report Card
Date: | 2/14/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute playbook trades |
PNL (ticks) | 0.70 | ||
Combined Score | 86 | ||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
10 | Pre-market routines | 9 | Hypos |
7 | Session PECS | 9 | Real-time analysis |
9 | Trading the process | 7 | Trade selection |
9 | Daily review | 9 | Trade Execution & Mgmt. |
10 | Progress toward Weekly goal | 7 | Risk Adjusted Returns |
45 | Total | 41 | |
- Hypo 1 Long, then short
- Hold excess area to rally overextended into prev high to then roll over
- Entry Long around excess area 54.35
- PT around prev high 54.80s
- Potential BO from prev high could see a stretched PT of 54.30
- Entry short around prev high 54.70/80
- PT excess area 54.35 area
- Stretched PT LIS 54 area
- Entry Long around excess area 54.35
- Hold excess area to rally overextended into prev high to then roll over
- Hypo 2 Short
- BD from excess area
- Entry around 54.35 area
- PT around LIS 54 area
- Stretched PT around value 53.70 area
- Potential long opportunity from LIS back to excess area
- BD from excess area
DRC
- Weekly Goal
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- Review
- On the first trade I took I expected a quicker move to happen in my favor. When that didn’t happen I started looking for an out. I stayed calm and assessed if the trade I was in was still valid. I decided to scratch half of my position to cut some risk. Then when it took even longer I started thinking that now I am hoping for the move to happen and not being objective enough so I scratched the other half as well.
- Later on the TTF looked very bullish but the LTF showed a possible shorting opportunity but I didn’t take it. Since the TTF looked bullish I decided that the move would just be a fade and I should wait for the PB and then go long which I did. We dropped to TTF VWAP and I went long. Then the LTF showed an unwillingness to move back higher and I decided to scratch this trade as well.
- I did good here listening to the voice in my head that says when in doubt, GET OUT.
- Another factor that played into my overall doubt of the market was the general ‘feeling’ of it. It didn’t ‘move’ like I am normally used to so I am glad I was extra cautious today.
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- HYPO1 75%
- The move to prev high came during the last few hours of the AS and not during the LS. I expected a more dramatic overextension over the prev high before dropping down to excess area. Which didn’t develop during LS but perhaps during NY
- HYPO1 75%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I did well in this regard. I felt like overtrading but I stopped myself from doing that by following my process.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- I learned that occupying my brain with other things trading-related is better than to just be in a trade.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Listen to your gut-feeling! Stay focused on following the process. Something could look like a missed opportunity but if it didn’t fit the plan it wasn’t a trade for you.
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Care about making money. Just follow the process and the rest will come.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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