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02142019 Thursday — choppy prev high rejection - Bear Market Trader
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02142019 Thursday — choppy prev high rejection

02142019 Thursday — choppy prev high rejection

02142019 Thurs­day — chop­py prev high rejection 

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeMonTueWed (sick)Thu
-2/112/122/132/14
Beers night before0000
Time bed yesterday0:1222:3622:0423:00
woke up8:187:001:458:26
Hours sleep8:068:243:419:26
Awake1:271:47-1:38
REM0:450:55-0:31
Light4:344:39-7:38
Deep1:201:03-2:35
Sleep well?3213
Mela­tonin001x1x
Neg­a­tive thoughts?2141
Exer­cise yester(to)day1411
Grat­i­tude5535
Joy5535
Anger1121
Fear1121
Focus3413
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon1TC in the morn­ing with 1.25 scoop2 espres­sos1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fastingnoyesnono
Water L3333
Vit­a­minsyesyesyesyes
Cig­a­rettes0000

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • 12 min workout
      • Didn’t do it today. My lame excuse is that I was sick yes­ter­day and felt like stay­ing in bed a lit­tle longer. COME ON IT’S ONLY 12 MINUTES! 
        • I need an account­abil­i­ty bud­dy or the way we say it the ‘account­abilibud­dy’. I’ll ask my friend to help me with this. 
          • Promised I’ll pay for pool and drinks if I miss a day.
  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • Besides being sick yes­ter­day I feel much bet­ter today. Although not the best yet of course. Yes­ter­day I slept very lit­tle. Kept wak­ing up etc. Slept more last night so I hope I recov­ered for the most part. I do feel better.
    • For some rea­son my fit­bit reg­is­tered that I slept ear­li­er than I actu­al­ly did and so the data for last night is not cor­rect. Let’s see if that hap­pens again.
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good but will have to see how I feel around EU ses­sion open.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Yes­ter­day we trad­ed above the LIS of 53.73 and test­ed this lev­el twice before ral­ly­ing and break­ing through the prev high of 54.34 dur­ing NY

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • 2/12
      • -0998M
  • EIA report
    • 2/13
      • Fore­cast 2.668M, “actu­al” num­ber 3.633M
      • There was a big­ger build than fore­cast which “should” put sell­ing pres­sure on the mar­ket. As always let’s see how the mar­ket reacts. 

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High 54.928
        • Low 53.617
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 53.97 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We failed to reach the 55s as I thought could hap­pen yes­ter­day but got very close and then got pushed back hard by the bears
      • Where do you think it should go?
        • It’s not as clear today I feel. I think we might see a PB on the HTF before we con­tin­ue this short to medi­um term UT how­ev­er it could also be that we overex­tend into the 55s and then roll over to ini­ti­ate the rota­tion down
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • Overex­tend into 55s and then short it down to 53.60 and stretched PT around 52.80 (for the medi­um to longer term)
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Val­ue area around 53.70 area
        • Excess area around 54.35 area
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We did trade high­er how­ev­er I feel that we didn’t have a real lev­el chang­ing ses­sion yes­ter­day. Yes we migrat­ed high­er but not high enough to say the bulls are still in charge. 
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • If we hold the excess area as sup­port we could see a good long oppor­tu­ni­ty into prev high and poten­tial­ly beyond into the 55.30s
        • If we BO how­ev­er, I believe it is pos­si­ble to see a move down to LIS 53.97 and per­haps to val­ue area 53.70
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • Dur­ing the AS we moved from excess area to a swing high at 54.50 before test­ing excess area at 54.35 lev­el. So let’s see if this area is going to hold or will we see a BD

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long, then short
    • Hold excess area to ral­ly overex­tend­ed into prev high to then roll over
      • Entry Long around excess area 54.35
        • PT around prev high 54.80s
        • Poten­tial BO from prev high could see a stretched PT of 54.30
      • Entry short around prev high 54.70/80
        • PT excess area 54.35 area
        • Stretched PT LIS 54 area
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • BD from excess area 
      • Entry around 54.35 area 
      • PT around LIS 54 area
      • Stretched PT around val­ue 53.70 area
      • Poten­tial long oppor­tu­ni­ty from LIS back to excess area

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • Looks like HYPO1 was in play dur­ing the last cou­ple of hours of the AS and let’s see how LS open will react to this level
    • At the open we dropped to LTF VWAP/UKC and I thought of tak­ing a long in case there was a BO attempt from prev high but didn’t even though TTF looks bull­ish but the LTF not too much
      • And I still think that the big oppor­tu­ni­ty is around 55.20 for the big roll over and short
    • If we fail to BO I am look­ing to short with PT around 54.55
    • Pos­si­ble BO attempt from prev high
    • T1 Short Loss 2.5 ticks
    • I think we might be get­ting ready to BO from prev high after all since there are still a lot of buy­ers around the 54.80 level
      • If we do BO I will be look­ing for a PB to get in long beyond this level
    • The TTF and LTF are both in an UT so this could be a trend trend play 
    • T2 Long

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • Prev high
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • 2nd touch of prev high area was a bear­ish can­dle although not too convincing
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 15% of intra­day loss
        • Entry: 54.902
    • SL
      • 55.097
    • TP
      • 54.70
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I think this will go against me
      • Not many are hit­ting the bid yet think the offer will lift
      • Buy­ers are try­ing to lift the bid
      • Scratched half at 54.918
      • And the oth­er half at 54.936
      • Loss 2.5 ticks
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • Drop from Prev High to TTF VWAP
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • LTF hadn’t bro­ken down from 50MA yet and was like­ly to return
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • Hard 15% soft 7%
        • Entry: 54.786
    • SL
      • 54.699
    • TP
      • 54.919
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • PA didn’t look like it want­ed to cross back over the 50MAso I cov­ered at 54.818 scratch at 3.2 ticks

Trade Review

  • P/L for the day
-Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticksDura­tion
T12019.02.14 10:25:15sell1wti54.90254.96354.5852019.02.14 10:51:4654.936-3.4000:26:31
2019.02.14 10:25:15sell1wti54.90255.09954.6842019.02.14 10:47:3354.918-1.6000:22:18
T22019.02.14 11:58:49buy2wti54.78654.69954.9192019.02.14 12:04:0354.8183.2000:05:14
----------0.70-

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:2/14/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute play­book trades
PNL (ticks)0.70
Com­bined Score86
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
10Pre-mar­ket routines9Hypos
7Ses­sion PECS9Real-time analy­sis
9Trad­ing the process7Trade selec­tion
9Dai­ly review9Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
10Progress toward Week­ly goal7Risk Adjust­ed Returns
45Total41
  • Hypo 1 Long, then short
    • Hold excess area to ral­ly overex­tend­ed into prev high to then roll over
      • Entry Long around excess area 54.35
        • PT around prev high 54.80s
        • Poten­tial BO from prev high could see a stretched PT of 54.30
      • Entry short around prev high 54.70/80
        • PT excess area 54.35 area
        • Stretched PT LIS 54 area
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • BD from excess area 
      • Entry around 54.35 area 
      • PT around LIS 54 area
      • Stretched PT around val­ue 53.70 area
      • Poten­tial long oppor­tu­ni­ty from LIS back to excess area

DRC

  • Week­ly Goal
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • Review
    • On the first trade I took I expect­ed a quick­er move to hap­pen in my favor. When that didn’t hap­pen I start­ed look­ing for an out. I stayed calm and assessed if the trade I was in was still valid. I decid­ed to scratch half of my posi­tion to cut some risk. Then when it took even longer I start­ed think­ing that now I am hop­ing for the move to hap­pen and not being objec­tive enough so I scratched the oth­er half as well. 
    • Lat­er on the TTF looked very bull­ish but the LTF showed a pos­si­ble short­ing oppor­tu­ni­ty but I didn’t take it. Since the TTF looked bull­ish I decid­ed that the move would just be a fade and I should wait for the PB and then go long which I did. We dropped to TTF VWAP and I went long. Then the LTF showed an unwill­ing­ness to move back high­er and I decid­ed to scratch this trade as well.
      • I did good here lis­ten­ing to the voice in my head that says when in doubt, GET OUT.
    • Anoth­er fac­tor that played into my over­all doubt of the mar­ket was the gen­er­al ‘feel­ing’ of it. It didn’t ‘move’ like I am nor­mal­ly used to so I am glad I was extra cau­tious today.
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • HYPO1 75%
      • The move to prev high came dur­ing the last few hours of the AS and not dur­ing the LS. I expect­ed a more dra­mat­ic overex­ten­sion over the prev high before drop­ping down to excess area. Which didn’t devel­op dur­ing LS but per­haps dur­ing NY
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I did well in this regard. I felt like over­trad­ing but I stopped myself from doing that by fol­low­ing my process.
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • I learned that occu­py­ing my brain with oth­er things trad­ing-relat­ed is bet­ter than to just be in a trade. 
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Lis­ten to your gut-feel­ing! Stay focused on fol­low­ing the process. Some­thing could look like a missed oppor­tu­ni­ty but if it didn’t fit the plan it wasn’t a trade for you.
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Care about mak­ing mon­ey. Just fol­low the process and the rest will come. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

QODE SEO

Trade Jour­nal on day trad­ing the WTI crude oil market

QODE META

oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trad­ing, day­trad­ing, trade jour­nal, jour­nal­ing, trade plan, com­modi­ties, play­book, one good trade, becom­ing a CPT, con­sis­tent­ly prof­itable trader,

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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