02142019 Thursday — choppy prev high rejection

14 Feb 02142019 Thursday — choppy prev high rejection

02142019 Thurs­day — chop­py prev high rejection 

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Mon	Tue	Wed (sick)	Thu
-	2/11	2/12	2/13	2/14
Beers night before	0	0	0	0
Time bed yesterday	0:12	22:36	22:04	23:00
woke up	8:18	7:00	1:45	8:26
Hours sleep	8:06	8:24	3:41	9:26
Awake	1:27	1:47	-	1:38
REM	0:45	0:55	-	0:31
Light	4:34	4:39	-	7:38
Deep	1:20	1:03	-	2:35
Sleep well?	3	2	1	3
Mela­tonin	0	0	1x	1x
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	2	1	4	1
Exer­cise yester(to)day	1	4	1	1
Grat­i­tude	5	5	3	5
Joy	5	5	3	5
Anger	1	1	2	1
Fear	1	1	2	1
Focus	3	4	1	3
Cof­fees today	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon	1TC in the morn­ing with 1.25 scoop	2 espres­sos	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	yes	no	no
Water L	3	3	3	3
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	0	0	0	0

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • 12 min workout
    • Didn’t do it today. My lame excuse is that I was sick yes­ter­day and felt like stay­ing in bed a lit­tle longer. COME ON IT’S ONLY 12 MINUTES! 
      • I need an account­abil­i­ty bud­dy or the way we say it the ‘account­abilibud­dy’. I’ll ask my friend to help me with this. 
        • Promised I’ll pay for pool and drinks if I miss a day.
• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • Besides being sick yes­ter­day I feel much bet­ter today. Although not the best yet of course. Yes­ter­day I slept very lit­tle. Kept wak­ing up etc. Slept more last night so I hope I recov­ered for the most part. I do feel better.
  • For some rea­son my fit­bit reg­is­tered that I slept ear­li­er than I actu­al­ly did and so the data for last night is not cor­rect. Let’s see if that hap­pens again.
• How do you feel?
  • I feel good but will have to see how I feel around EU ses­sion open.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
  • Yes­ter­day we trad­ed above the LIS of 53.73 and test­ed this lev­el twice before ral­ly­ing and break­ing through the prev high of 54.34 dur­ing NY

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • 2/12
    • -0998M
• EIA report
  • 2/13
    • Fore­cast 2.668M, “actu­al” num­ber 3.633M
    • There was a big­ger build than fore­cast which “should” put sell­ing pres­sure on the mar­ket. As always let’s see how the mar­ket reacts. 

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
      • High 54.928
      • Low 53.617
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 53.97 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We failed to reach the 55s as I thought could hap­pen yes­ter­day but got very close and then got pushed back hard by the bears
    • Where do you think it should go?
      • It’s not as clear today I feel. I think we might see a PB on the HTF before we con­tin­ue this short to medi­um term UT how­ev­er it could also be that we overex­tend into the 55s and then roll over to ini­ti­ate the rota­tion down
    • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
      • Overex­tend into 55s and then short it down to 53.60 and stretched PT around 52.80 (for the medi­um to longer term)
• TTF
  • Dialling in on opportunities
    • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
      • Val­ue area around 53.70 area
      • Excess area around 54.35 area
    • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
      • We did trade high­er how­ev­er I feel that we didn’t have a real lev­el chang­ing ses­sion yes­ter­day. Yes we migrat­ed high­er but not high enough to say the bulls are still in charge. 
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • If we hold the excess area as sup­port we could see a good long oppor­tu­ni­ty into prev high and poten­tial­ly beyond into the 55.30s
      • If we BO how­ev­er, I believe it is pos­si­ble to see a move down to LIS 53.97 and per­haps to val­ue area 53.70
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Dur­ing the AS we moved from excess area to a swing high at 54.50 before test­ing excess area at 54.35 lev­el. So let’s see if this area is going to hold or will we see a BD

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long, then short
  • Hold excess area to ral­ly overex­tend­ed into prev high to then roll over
    • Entry Long around excess area 54.35
      • PT around prev high 54.80s
      • Poten­tial BO from prev high could see a stretched PT of 54.30
    • Entry short around prev high 54.70/80
      • PT excess area 54.35 area
      • Stretched PT LIS 54 area
• Hypo 2 Short
  • BD from excess area 
    • Entry around 54.35 area 
    • PT around LIS 54 area
    • Stretched PT around val­ue 53.70 area
    • Poten­tial long oppor­tu­ni­ty from LIS back to excess area

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • Looks like HYPO1 was in play dur­ing the last cou­ple of hours of the AS and let’s see how LS open will react to this level
  • At the open we dropped to LTF VWAP/UKC and I thought of tak­ing a long in case there was a BO attempt from prev high but didn’t even though TTF looks bull­ish but the LTF not too much
    • And I still think that the big oppor­tu­ni­ty is around 55.20 for the big roll over and short
  • If we fail to BO I am look­ing to short with PT around 54.55
  • Pos­si­ble BO attempt from prev high
  • T1 Short Loss 2.5 ticks
  • I think we might be get­ting ready to BO from prev high after all since there are still a lot of buy­ers around the 54.80 level
    • If we do BO I will be look­ing for a PB to get in long beyond this level
  • The TTF and LTF are both in an UT so this could be a trend trend play 
  • T2 Long

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
        • Prev high
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • 2nd touch of prev high area was a bear­ish can­dle although not too convincing
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 15% of intra­day loss
      • Entry: 54.902
  • SL
    • 55.097
  • TP
    • 54.70
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I think this will go against me
    • Not many are hit­ting the bid yet think the offer will lift
    • Buy­ers are try­ing to lift the bid
    • Scratched half at 54.918
    • And the oth­er half at 54.936
    • Loss 2.5 ticks

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
        • Drop from Prev High to TTF VWAP
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • LTF hadn’t bro­ken down from 50MA yet and was like­ly to return
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • Hard 15% soft 7%
      • Entry: 54.786
  • SL
    • 54.699
  • TP
    • 54.919
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • PA didn’t look like it want­ed to cross back over the 50MAso I cov­ered at 54.818 scratch at 3.2 ticks

Trade Review

• P/L for the day

-	Open Time	Type	Size	Item	Price	S / L	T / P	Close Time	Price	P/L ticks	Dura­tion
T1	2019.02.14 10:25:15	sell	1	wti	54.902	54.963	54.585	2019.02.14 10:51:46	54.936	-3.40	00:26:31
2019.02.14 10:25:15	sell	1	wti	54.902	55.099	54.684	2019.02.14 10:47:33	54.918	-1.60	00:22:18
T2	2019.02.14 11:58:49	buy	2	wti	54.786	54.699	54.919	2019.02.14 12:04:03	54.818	3.20	00:05:14
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.70	-

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:	2/14/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute play­book trades
PNL (ticks)	0.70
Com­bined Score	86
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
10	Pre-mar­ket routines	9	Hypos
7	Ses­sion PECS	9	Real-time analy­sis
9	Trad­ing the process	7	Trade selec­tion
9	Dai­ly review	9	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
10	Progress toward Week­ly goal	7	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
45	Total	41

• Hypo 1 Long, then short
  • Hold excess area to ral­ly overex­tend­ed into prev high to then roll over
    • Entry Long around excess area 54.35
      • PT around prev high 54.80s
      • Poten­tial BO from prev high could see a stretched PT of 54.30
    • Entry short around prev high 54.70/80
      • PT excess area 54.35 area
      • Stretched PT LIS 54 area
• Hypo 2 Short
  • BD from excess area 
    • Entry around 54.35 area 
    • PT around LIS 54 area
    • Stretched PT around val­ue 53.70 area
    • Poten­tial long oppor­tu­ni­ty from LIS back to excess area

DRC

• Week­ly Goal
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
• Review
  • On the first trade I took I expect­ed a quick­er move to hap­pen in my favor. When that didn’t hap­pen I start­ed look­ing for an out. I stayed calm and assessed if the trade I was in was still valid. I decid­ed to scratch half of my posi­tion to cut some risk. Then when it took even longer I start­ed think­ing that now I am hop­ing for the move to hap­pen and not being objec­tive enough so I scratched the oth­er half as well. 
  • Lat­er on the TTF looked very bull­ish but the LTF showed a pos­si­ble short­ing oppor­tu­ni­ty but I didn’t take it. Since the TTF looked bull­ish I decid­ed that the move would just be a fade and I should wait for the PB and then go long which I did. We dropped to TTF VWAP and I went long. Then the LTF showed an unwill­ing­ness to move back high­er and I decid­ed to scratch this trade as well.
    • I did good here lis­ten­ing to the voice in my head that says when in doubt, GET OUT.
  • Anoth­er fac­tor that played into my over­all doubt of the mar­ket was the gen­er­al ‘feel­ing’ of it. It didn’t ‘move’ like I am nor­mal­ly used to so I am glad I was extra cau­tious today.
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • HYPO1 75%
    • The move to prev high came dur­ing the last few hours of the AS and not dur­ing the LS. I expect­ed a more dra­mat­ic overex­ten­sion over the prev high before drop­ping down to excess area. Which didn’t devel­op dur­ing LS but per­haps dur­ing NY
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I did well in this regard. I felt like over­trad­ing but I stopped myself from doing that by fol­low­ing my process.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I learned that occu­py­ing my brain with oth­er things trad­ing-relat­ed is bet­ter than to just be in a trade. 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Lis­ten to your gut-feel­ing! Stay focused on fol­low­ing the process. Some­thing could look like a missed oppor­tu­ni­ty but if it didn’t fit the plan it wasn’t a trade for you.
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Care about mak­ing mon­ey. Just fol­low the process and the rest will come. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

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