
18 Feb 02182019 Monday — Chasing the market
02182019 Monday — Chasing the market
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sat | Sun | Mon |
- | 2/16 | 2/17 | 2/18 |
Beers night before | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Time bed yesterday | - | - | 1:07 |
woke up | - | - | 8:25 |
Hours sleep | - | - | 7:18 |
Awake | - | - | 1:11 |
REM | - | - | 0:35 |
Light | - | - | 4:33 |
Deep | - | - | 0:59 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Melatonin | 0 | 1x | 1x |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1TC | 1TC | 1TC |
Intermittent fasting | no | no | yes |
Water L | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | no | no | no |
Cigarettes | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- I will do a 12-min workout in the mornings
- Done
- I will do a 12-min workout in the mornings
- How do you feel?
- I feel OK just not my sharpest.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- Last Friday we held the LIS as support and started a UT breaking out from excess and prev high inton new highs during NY
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Wednesday, Feb 20th
- EIA report
- Thursday, Feb 21st
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 56.235
- Low 54.619
- Where is the LIS?
- 54.96 area
- What didn’t happen? Where do you think it should go?
- We broke to new highs and we might be due for a HTF PB
- Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
- Prev high hold as resistance and PB down to excess area
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Excess 55.70 area
- Value 54.75 area
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- Market is trending and might be due for a PB
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- Prev high hold to short into excess area
- Long around excess area to prev high area
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- AS has been ranging with one spike to 56.50 but got pushed back down again. Range is between .10 and .50
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- BD from prev high into excess area
- Entry around 55.95
- PT around 55.75
- Stretched PT 55.30
- BD from prev high into excess area
- Hypo 2 Long
- Hold Excess area as support into prev. High to setup a potential BO later on the day
- Entry around 55.75 excess area
- PT prev high 56.20 area
- Stretched PT 57.20
- Hold Excess area as support into prev. High to setup a potential BO later on the day
- Hypo 3 Short
- BD from excess area into LIS
- Entry around 55.60
- PT 55
- Stretched PT around 54.75
- BD from excess area into LIS
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- Stalking a possible long according to HYPO2
- We might overextend during the opening drive to the TTF VWAP/UKC/Prev high or we might BD from there in which case HYPO3 will be in play
- Seems we have hit Value high and bulls are getting in but not convincingly yet
- We might overextend during the opening drive to the TTF VWAP/UKC/Prev high or we might BD from there in which case HYPO3 will be in play
- PA got pushed down hard and I went short
- T1 32 tick loss
- 4:35: we seem to be wanting to BO from prev high after we had a PB to TTF VWAP/UKC/Prev High
- Stalking a possible long according to HYPO2
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- We had 2 doji candles on TTF and looked to be dropping and I wanted to get in early
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- On the open we moved down and the next candle failed to move back up. Actually it pushed back up to VWAP and then dropped and almost closed at its bottom giving me a bearish outlook
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 30% of intraday loss
- Entry: 56.357
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 56.542
- TP
- 56.122
- Trade Management
- After we pulled back to VWAP I added to my position
- Entry 56.415
- SL 56.544
- TP 56.125
- Both got stopped out at 56.546 at a 32 tick loss
- After we pulled back to VWAP I added to my position
- Why? What do I see?
Trade Review
- P/L for the day
- Lost 1.92% of account size, 96.17% of intraday loss
Daily Report Card
Date: | 2/18/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute playbook trades |
PNL (%) | -1.92% | ||
Combined Score | 45 | ||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
8 | Pre-market routines | 8 | Hypos |
3 | Session PECS | 2 | Real-time analysis |
5 | Trading the process | 2 | Trade selection |
9 | Daily review | 2 | Trade Execution & Mgmt. |
5 | Progress toward Weekly goal | 1 | Risk Adjusted Returns |
30 | Total | 15 | |
- Weekly Goal
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- Review
- I lost 96.17% of my intraday loss which is 1.92% of my total account
- Now let’s talk about how I lost this. Main problem was I was chasing the market and I know why I was chasing the market. I didn’t stick to my plan. I was stalking a long and for some reason I took a short when we got below a technical level. On the opening drive PA dropped on the LTF and TTF was showing 2 doji candles after a rally so I shorted. PA went against me and thinking the context was still valid I kept a wide SL and this got taken out. On top of that I added to my position when I thought there was a PB, adding to my risk and thus losing more when they both got stopped out.
- Then PA looked to continue the rally so I went long, not taking into account that I was entering at a very low R/R area and this also went against me and I got stopped out. Then I continued to chase the market by pocketing some scalp trades which I know is a red flag for me.
- The underlying issue of today’s mistakes is very simple. I was not mentally sharp to follow my plan and thus I chased the market and overtraded. One good thing was that I stayed within my intraday-loss limit.
- So how will I improve on this so to decrease the likelihood I’ll repeat this same mistake?
- I can’t expect to come into the market half-assed after not resting enough on the weekend. Thus, surprise surprise, I need to get my weekends under the control. I believe that this in and of itself will help me level up as a trader and I will need to make adjustments. To give myself a fair shot I will only focus on trading for the next month. On weekends I know I can work more on trading, doing more backtesting, reviewing trades, reviewing playbook setups. Hell, with incorporating a new approach like market profile I should go back and redo my playbook setups with this in mind. Got some work to do. To be honest I’m not too bummed out about today since I am learning so much more and so much more accelerated than I was before. Learning more about trading and even better, myself.
- Additional: I have been keeping a list of things that set me off so that I know that I am a bit aggravated during the day. Today, a trader from the community reached out and gave some good pointers on intermittent fasting and how it affects the mental state that I will take into consideration and include in my prep work. I will be better tomorrow than I am today.
- I lost 96.17% of my intraday loss which is 1.92% of my total account
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- HYPO2 60%
- Yes we did hol prev high as support but there was no continuation to the move
- HYPO2 60%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I failed miserably as stated above in the review
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- That I should respect the market more. Be in the right state of mind and body before even thinking of engaging the market. The market is always right.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Focus on improving my prep work and reviewing setups.
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Trade after making mistakes. Only take 4 trades. Anything more than that I am scalping and that is not what my setups are for.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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