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02182019 Monday — Chasing the market

02182019 Monday — Chasing the market

02182019 Mon­day — Chas­ing the market

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeSatSunMon
-2/162/172/18
Beers night before004
Time bed yesterday--1:07
woke up--8:25
Hours sleep--7:18
Awake--1:11
REM--0:35
Light--4:33
Deep--0:59
Sleep well?233
Mela­tonin01x1x
Neg­a­tive thoughts?111
Exer­cise yester(to)day444
Grat­i­tude555
Joy555
Anger111
Fear111
Focus233
Cof­fees today1TC1TC1TC
Inter­mit­tent fastingnonoyes
Water L333
Vit­a­minsnonono
Cig­a­rettes500

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • I will do a 12-min work­out in the mornings
      • Done
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel OK just not my sharpest. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Last Fri­day we held the LIS as sup­port and start­ed a UT break­ing out from excess and prev high inton new highs dur­ing NY

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Wednes­day, Feb 20th
  • EIA report
    • Thurs­day, Feb 21st

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High 56.235
        • Low 54.619
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 54.96 area
      • What didn’t hap­pen? Where do you think it should go?
        • We broke to new highs and we might be due for a HTF PB
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • Prev high hold as resis­tance and PB down to excess area
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Excess 55.70 area
        • Val­ue 54.75 area 
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Mar­ket is trend­ing and might be due for a PB
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • Prev high hold to short into excess area
        • Long around excess area to prev high area
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • AS has been rang­ing with one spike to 56.50 but got pushed back down again. Range is between .10 and .50

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • BD from prev high into excess area
      • Entry around 55.95
      • PT around 55.75
      • Stretched PT 55.30
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • Hold Excess area as sup­port into prev. High to set­up a poten­tial BO lat­er on the day
      • Entry around 55.75 excess area 
      • PT prev high 56.20 area
      • Stretched PT 57.20
  • Hypo 3 Short
    • BD from excess area into LIS 
      • Entry around 55.60
      • PT 55
      • Stretched PT around 54.75

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • Stalk­ing a pos­si­ble long accord­ing to HYPO2
      • We might overex­tend dur­ing the open­ing dri­ve to the TTF VWAP/UKC/Prev high or we might BD from there in which case HYPO3 will be in play
        • Seems we have hit Val­ue high and bulls are get­ting in but not con­vinc­ing­ly yet
    • PA got pushed down hard and I went short
    • T1 32 tick loss
    • 4:35: we seem to be want­i­ng to BO from prev high after we had a PB to TTF VWAP/UKC/Prev High

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • We had 2 doji can­dles on TTF and looked to be drop­ping and I want­ed to get in early
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • On the open we moved down and the next can­dle failed to move back up. Actu­al­ly it pushed back up to VWAP and then dropped and almost closed at its bot­tom giv­ing me a bear­ish outlook
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 30% of intra­day loss
        • Entry: 56.357
    • SL
      • 56.542
    • TP
      • 56.122
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • After we pulled back to VWAP I added to my position
        • Entry 56.415
        • SL 56.544
        • TP 56.125
      • Both got stopped out at 56.546 at a 32 tick loss

Trade Review

  • P/L for the day
    • Lost 1.92% of account size, 96.17% of intra­day loss

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:2/18/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute play­book trades
PNL (%)-1.92%
Com­bined Score45
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
8Pre-mar­ket routines8Hypos
3Ses­sion PECS2Real-time analy­sis
5Trad­ing the process2Trade selec­tion
9Dai­ly review2Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
5Progress toward Week­ly goal1Risk Adjust­ed Returns
30Total15

  • Week­ly Goal
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • Review
    • I lost 96.17% of my intra­day loss which is 1.92% of my total account
      • Now let’s talk about how I lost this. Main prob­lem was I was chas­ing the mar­ket and I know why I was chas­ing the mar­ket. I didn’t stick to my plan. I was stalk­ing a long and for some rea­son I took a short when we got below a tech­ni­cal lev­el. On the open­ing dri­ve PA dropped on the LTF and TTF was show­ing 2 doji can­dles after a ral­ly so I short­ed. PA went against me and think­ing the con­text was still valid I kept a wide SL and this got tak­en out. On top of that I added to my posi­tion when I thought there was a PB, adding to my risk and thus los­ing more when they both got stopped out. 
      • Then PA looked to con­tin­ue the ral­ly so I went long, not tak­ing into account that I was enter­ing at a very low R/R area and this also went against me and I got stopped out. Then I con­tin­ued to chase the mar­ket by pock­et­ing some scalp trades which I know is a red flag for me. 
      • The under­ly­ing issue of today’s mis­takes is very sim­ple. I was not men­tal­ly sharp to fol­low my plan and thus I chased the mar­ket and over­trad­ed. One good thing was that I stayed with­in my intra­day-loss limit. 
      • So how will I improve on this so to decrease the like­li­hood I’ll repeat this same mistake? 
        • I can’t expect to come into the mar­ket half-assed after not rest­ing enough on the week­end. Thus, sur­prise sur­prise, I need to get my week­ends under the con­trol. I believe that this in and of itself will help me lev­el up as a trad­er and I will need to make adjust­ments. To give myself a fair shot I will only focus on trad­ing for the next month. On week­ends I know I can work more on trad­ing, doing more back­test­ing, review­ing trades, review­ing play­book setups. Hell, with incor­po­rat­ing a new approach like mar­ket pro­file I should go back and redo my play­book setups with this in mind. Got some work to do. To be hon­est I’m not too bummed out about today since I am learn­ing so much more and so much more accel­er­at­ed than I was before. Learn­ing more about trad­ing and even bet­ter, myself. 
        • Addi­tion­al: I have been keep­ing a list of things that set me off so that I know that I am a bit aggra­vat­ed dur­ing the day. Today, a trad­er from the com­mu­ni­ty reached out and gave some good point­ers on inter­mit­tent fast­ing and how it affects the men­tal state  that I will take into con­sid­er­a­tion and include in my prep work. I will be bet­ter tomor­row than I am today.
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • HYPO2 60%
      • Yes we did hol prev high as sup­port but there was no con­tin­u­a­tion to the move
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I failed mis­er­ably as stat­ed above in the review
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • That I should respect the mar­ket more. Be in the right state of mind and body before even think­ing of engag­ing the mar­ket. The mar­ket is always right. 
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Focus on improv­ing my prep work and review­ing setups.
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Trade after mak­ing mis­takes. Only take 4 trades. Any­thing more than that I am scalp­ing and that is not what my setups are for.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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