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02192019 Tuesday — Trading in the zone - Bear Market Trader
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02192019 Tuesday — Trading in the zone

02192019 Tuesday — Trading in the zone

02192019 Tues­day — Trad­ing in the zone

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeSatSunMonTue
-2/162/172/182/19
Beers night before0400
Time bed yesterday--1:0722:30
woke up--8:257:30
Hours sleep--7:189:00
Awake--1:11-
REM--0:35-
Light--4:33-
Deep--0:59-
Sleep well?2334
Mela­tonin01x1x0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?1111
Exer­cise yester(to)day4444
Grat­i­tude5555
Joy5555
Anger1111
Fear1111
Focus2334
Cof­fees today1TC1TC1TC1TC morn­ing, 1 espres­so afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fastingnonoyesyes
Water L3333
Vit­a­minsnononoyes
Cig­a­rettes5040

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Do my morn­ing workout
      • Done
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good. I think that extra bit of sleep I got this morn­ing did me good. I was plan­ning to wake up at 6am but for­got to set the alarm so snuck in more zzzzzs. Glad I did. I feel sharp and ener­gized. I think all the food over the week­end also inter­fered with my men­tal state so I’m going to con­tin­ue the inter­mit­tent fast dur­ing the week­end as well.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 4

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • AS opened around the prev high and we spend the rest of the ses­sion rang­ing between this area of 56.10 to 56.65 includ­ing LS

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Tomor­row
  • EIA report
    • Day after tomorrow

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High 56.724
        • Low 56.095
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 56.30 area
      • What didn’t hap­pen? Where do you think it should go?
        • We didn’t con­tin­ue the UT or reversed for a PB instead we ranged between .10 and .65
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • A BD from Prev Low could see a move to 55.70 area
        • A BO from Prev High could see a move to 57.30 area
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Excess 56.50 area
        • Val­ue 56.15 area
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • The mar­ket is in a range
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • A BD from prev low could see a move to 55.70
        • A BO from LIS could give a long oppor­tu­ni­ty into excess area, poten­tial­ly extent into prev high
        • A BO from prev high could see a move into 57.30
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • AS moved down from LIS into val­ue area/prev low and has found sup­port for now and moved back to LIS. If there’s a BO from LIS I’ll be look­ing for longs into excess poten­tial­ly prev high. If not I will look for shorts back down to value/prev low area and poten­tial­ly further

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • BO from LIS into excess area (overex­tend­ed) to roll over
      • Short around 56.40
      • PT around 56.25
      • Stretched PT 56.10, per­haps even a drop to 55.70 area
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • A failed BD from value/prev low area to swing high into LIS and Excess area (range)
      • Entry long around 56.15
      • PT 56.35
      • Stretched PT around 56.50 (excess area)
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • Hold excess area into prev high PB to excess and set up BO from prev high
      • Entry around 56.35 add a hold above 56.50
      • PT around prev high 56.70
      • Stretched PT around 57, 57.30

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by only EXECUTING 4 play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • Dur­ing the AS we reject­ed prev low and held val­ue area and have been on a short term UT BO from LIS into Excess area at LS open. HYPO1 might be in play so I’m look­ing to stalk a short how­ev­er keep flex­i­ble for a poten­tial PB to 56.40 and a poten­tial con­tin­u­a­tion to the rally
        • 16:17 T1 short 
    • 16:35
      • We just BD from LTF VWAP and are poten­tial­ly look­ing to BD from 1.5 SD although there could be a lot of push back since we are at the LTF 50/200MA and near the TTF 50MA as well as being near the LIS area
        • I am in a short trade that I am look­ing to either cov­er at a loss if we look like reject­ing this lev­el or we fol­low-through and drop down back to val­ue area. I am expect­ing a pos­si­ble PB to LTF VWAP before a con­tin­u­a­tion down.
    • 17:05
      • PA got pushed up which is to be expect­ed at a more crit­i­cal tech lev­el as a LTF 50/200MA crossover that is near the TTF 50MA and LIS
        • We pushed back up to the LTF VWAP and for now it looks like the bears are in con­trol again but we haven’t BD down from this lev­el yet. 
    • 17:35
      • We are look­ing to poten­tial­ly CAR the LTF 50/200MA crossover and I am wait­ing to see if we do because we could be CAS the LIS and BO from here. I’ll be stalk­ing a poten­tial long above 56.35 and a short below 56.25
    • 18:05
      • PA did look like break­ing out from LIS and reached top of excess before being slammed down hard. I was stalk­ing a poten­tial rever­sal at the excess area but with a wick this tall I’m not sure if this is it. The wick cov­ered all the way down to what I was stalk­ing for a poten­tial long as a PB to 56.37 lev­el. Pro­ceed with caution. 
    • 18:35
      • I noticed that the KC has widened and this usu­al­ly means that we will more like­ly be range bound until we break the KC
        • Although this is one of the play­book setups I have writ­ten about I do not have enough expe­ri­ence and con­fi­dence in it yet though so I will sit here and observe PA
    • 19:05
      • As pre­vi­ous­ly men­tioned I saw that KC had widened and we bounced of the LKC and are now test­ing the UKC. This is what I have observed that hap­pens most times. I’ll be more biased towards a poten­tial rever­sal at this UKC 56.55 lev­el which is also the top of the excess area.Momentum seems to have slowed but got build up after a PB to 56.45 (bot­tom excess area) before a poten­tial BO can be con­sid­ered. In case of BD from .45 we can see anoth­er swing (rota­tion?) towards .25s
    • Stopped to do mar­ket analy­sis dis­cus­sion with a trad­er from the comunity.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • HYPO1 excess area
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • Rejec­tion can­dles in overex­tend­ed area in excess area
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 15%
        • Entry: 56.427
    • SL
      • 56.568
    • TP
      • 56.262
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • PA is try­ing to reach new highs but looks like bulls are inter­fer­ing around 56.50 level
      • TTF looks bull­ish still so I might get out on a PB here
      • PA is look­ing to BD from LTF VWAP which could mean a TTF mean rever­sion to LIS/50MA/VWAP
      • LTF shows strength at 1.0 SD and that’s where we are back at now so we might reverse here. If we do I’ll take myself out.
      • Looks like we might BD from LTF 50/200MA
        • I am doing good to stay calm and not take prof­its. Some fight back is to be expect­ed at this level. 
          • PA is now test­ing LTF VWAP as resistance
      • Big push back by bears on the VWAP re-test so I added to my position
        • Entry 56.366 cov­ered at 56.302
          • Win 6.4 ticks
      • PA dropped to LTF UKC and I got out
      • Cov­ered first posi­tion at 56.291
        • Win 13.6 ticks

Trade Review

  • P/L for the day
Open TimeTypeSizeItemPriceS / LT / PClose TimePriceP/L ticksDura­tion
2019.02.19 11:06:09sell2wti56.366002019.02.19 11:07:4556.3026.4000:01:36
2019.02.19 10:17:00sell2wti56.42756.56856.2552019.02.19 11:07:4256.29113.6000:50:42
---------20.00-

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:2/19/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute only 4 play­book trades
PNL (%)0.36%
Com­bined Score89
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
10Pre-mar­ket routines8Hypos
9Ses­sion PECS9Real-time analy­sis
9Trad­ing the process9Trade selec­tion
9Dai­ly review9Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
10Progress toward Week­ly goal7Risk Adjust­ed Returns
47Total42
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Per­form well by only EXECUTING 4 play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • Review
    • I did well today. Accord­ing to my HYPO1 I stalked a short at the open when Excess area seemed to hold. I went short and fol­lowed it down into BD from LTF VWAP and was on point with expect­ing the PB to this same lev­el. When price showed more sell­ers com­ing in at this lev­el I added to my posi­tion and took prof­its accord­ing to my HYPO1. 
    • Lat­er on I real­ized we would be rang­ing the rest of the ses­sion and I stayed out of it. Based on my trad­ing rules and play­book set­up I made before I under­stood what was going on. How­ev­er, since I am not too con­fi­dent with this par­tic­u­lar ‘range bound’ set­up I decid­ed to watch price action and take notes. 
    • I incor­po­rat­ed the :05, 0:35 time mark analy­sis and this has helped me a lot. 
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • HYPO1 90%
      • Hypo 1 Short
        • BO from LIS into excess area (overex­tend­ed) to roll over
          • Short around 56.40
          • PT around 56.25
          • Stretched PT 56.10, per­haps even a drop to 55.70 area
        • My entry was at 56.43, added at .37, got out .29/.30. Don’t think I could have done that any better. 
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I stayed calm and looked at what the price action was try­ing to tell me. I’m hap­py with my per­for­mance here. I was patient in let­ting the trade develop. 
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • That I can come up with a plan and actu­al­ly fol­low-through on exe­cut­ing said plan
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Dis­cuss mar­ket analy­sis notes with a fel­low-trad­er from the com­mu­ni­ty. This helped me a lot learn­ing from anoth­er point of view and helped me orga­nize and struc­ture my own think­ing. Besides just being cool to be able to talk shop with someone.
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • I think I did pret­ty good today but if I had to say one thing then it would be to dare and take that ‘range bound’ set­up I men­tioned ear­li­er. I will back­test this par­tic­u­lar set­up to grow my con­fi­dence in it. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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