
21 Feb 02212019 Thursday — Sellers absorbed at Excess area
02212019 Thursday — Sellers absorbed at Excess area
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu |
- | 2/17 | 2/18 | 2/19 | 2/20 | 2/21 |
Beers night before | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Time bed yesterday | - | 1:07 | 22:30 | 23:25 | 22:21 |
woke up | - | 8:25 | 7:30 | 7:39 | 7:28 |
Hours sleep | - | 7:18 | 9:00 | 8:14 | 9:07 |
Awake | - | 1:11 | - | 1:40 | 1:36 |
REM | - | 0:35 | - | 0:20 | 1:09 |
Light | - | 4:33 | - | 4:57 | 4:58 |
Deep | - | 0:59 | - | 1:17 | 1:24 |
Sleep well? | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Melatonin | 1x | 1x | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1TC | 1TC | 1TC morning, 1 espresso afternoon | 1TC morning, 1 espresso afternoon | 1TC morning, 1 espresso afternoon |
Intermittent fasting | no | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Water L | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | no | no | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- Morning workout
- Done
- Intermittent fasting
- Yes
- Rule of 4
- Morning workout
- How do you feel?
- I feel good but still not my sharpest. I slept enough but I think the quality wasn’t as good as it could be. I kept waking up because of the injury to my hand. Hopefully that’ll pass soon.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- AS started off by holding value area as support breaking through LIS and excess area overextending over prev high before reversing and settling in a short term range around the excess area
- This range sloped up to prev high before LS open and during the opening drive we had a momentum play down breaking excess and LIS overextending into value area
- To then reach new highs after NY opened
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Build 1.260M
- EIA report
- Will come out today. Forecast build of 3.080M
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Highs 57.623
- Low 55.823
- Where is the LIS?
- 56.40 area
- What didn’t happen? Where do you think it should go?
- We didn’t BD from the HTF UKC stopping the UT on the short term. It looks like it might be the exhausted move at the end of an UT before rolling over into a short to medium term DT. It could be the 1st leg of that exhaustion move so be on the lookout for the 2nd leg.
- Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
- Holding excess area as support into new highs
- BD from excess area into LIS
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Excess 57.10 area
- Value 56 area
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- It could be that we were in a HTF consolidation range into an exhaustion move. This doesn’t mean the exhaustion is over. It could just be the continuation to the HTF UT.
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- Holding excess area as support into new highs
- BD from excess area into LIS
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- AS bounced off the Excess area into a possible swing LH
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- Hold Prev high as resistance BD from Excess area into LIS
- Early entry around 57.30 area if real-time analysis permits, otherwise (add) or entry around 57.05
- PT around 57.05
- Stretched PT around 56.90, .45
- Hold Prev high as resistance BD from Excess area into LIS
- Hypo 2 Long
- Hold Excess area as support into New Highs
- Entry around 57.20
- PT around prev high 57.60
- Stretched PT around 57.90
- Hold Excess area as support into New Highs
- Hypo 3 Long/short
- Same as Hypo2 but overextend into prev high and roll over
- Added short entry around 57.50
- PT around 57.30
- Stretched PT around Excess area 57.10, 56.90
- Same as Hypo2 but overextend into prev high and roll over
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups taking only 4 trades and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 16:05
- Low momentum on bar down to LTF LKC/200MA and TTF VWAP area at LS open
- Same area as yesterday’s stretched PT of 57.30 level
- Potential BD from this level
- Low momentum on bar down to LTF LKC/200MA and TTF VWAP area at LS open
- 16:35
- PA hasn’t made a drastic move yet. Waiting for the market to make its move first
- If there is a BD from this level all hypos still in play. Albeit a slightly different version for hypo1. No clarity yet. PA doesn’t seem to drop from this level yet and we might have a swing reversal here although not much of a strong tech level on TTF to show support for me to be confident in the move.
- 17:05
- PA moved to LTF VWAP and I thought my swing reversal setup was already in play so was looking to see a continuation to the move but we dropped hard into top of excess area
- PA seems sluggish again. Especially after crossing down the LTF 200MA.
- KC and VWAP both widening. PA trading outside of LKC with the exception of 2 touches of the LTF VWAP indicating short term DT might be still in effect
- 17:35
- PA tried to cross LTF VWAP but unconvincingly. I do still think a reversal here is at play so that’s why I’m stalking a long and didn’t go short. That and bad R/R
- 18:05
- PA still mostly below LTF VWAP. Buyers/sellers lack conviction to drive PA in a direction.
- Accumulation/distribution going on? Sellers being absorbed?
- 18:35
- 50MA seems to want to cross down 200MA on LTF
- PA has moved to this level and might be testing but still looking very unconvincing and sluggish
- TTF looks bullish
- Not going to take a trade unless I get some more clarity. I’ll write up notes for my playbook
- 19:05
- BO from LTF 50/200MA into LTF/TTF UKC on low momentum. Looking for a possible rejection of this level if sellers come in to short according to Hypo3 but stay flexible in case of BO from prev high (Hypo2). Then look to enter on PB.
- 19:35
- PA moved up in overextension area into prev high (hypo3) and seems to have rejected this area. I did not short here since the rally to prev high looked ‘forceful’. Looking for a second touch of prev high before considering short. PA then crossed back under the LTF UKC and shows a very bearish candle on TTF.
- Lack of buyers to bring PA back up to prev high.
- We now have a momentum move down into VWAP
- I’m going to stay out and just observe and take notes
- 20:05
- PA is following LTF VWAP after bouncing off 50/200ma (which are flat now), PA again very sluggish. No follow-through on the big bearish candle on the TTF.
- 16:05
NO TRADES TAKEN
Daily Report Card
Date: | 2/21/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute only 4 playbook trades |
PNL (%) | no trades taken | ||
Combined Score | 79 | ||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
10 | Pre-market routines | 8 | Hypos |
7 | Session PECS | 7 | Real-time analysis |
8 | Trading the process | 7 | Trade selection |
10 | Daily review | 7 | Trade Execution & Mgmt. |
8 | Progress toward Weekly goal | 7 | Risk Adjusted Returns |
43 | Total | 36 | |
- Weekly Goal
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups taking only 4 trades and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- Review
- Hypo3 was playing out but I failed to capitalize on it. Reasons for this was that I found PA to be very sluggish with no real follow-through on moves. I was stalking a long at the excess area, as per hypo3, and even though I was stalking it I felt an exhausted move should happoen. It is now about what I think SHOULD happen but what is actually happening in front of me.
- How will I try to improve on this?
- Even though I think there’s nothing wrong with staying out of the market when it doesn’t ‘feel’ right (in terms of sluggishness etc.) I could have stuck with my hypo3 market context and risked perhaps a smaller position in accordance with this hypo. I’ll work on that.
- How will I try to improve on this?
- When PA reached prev. High I yet again failed to capitalize on the reversal because I waited for a confirmation in the form of a 2nd touch before taking the reversal here. Then soon after it moved away from where I felt is the best R/R.
- How will I improve on this?
- This was a swing reversal play at a technical level and I should have taken this. Besides the preceding sluggishness I felt less focused today so that probably had a role in this. Nonetheless, take setups when they arise! With good trade management it’s OK if it turns into a loss.
- How will I improve on this?
- Hypo3 was playing out but I failed to capitalize on it. Reasons for this was that I found PA to be very sluggish with no real follow-through on moves. I was stalking a long at the excess area, as per hypo3, and even though I was stalking it I felt an exhausted move should happoen. It is now about what I think SHOULD happen but what is actually happening in front of me.
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- HYPO3 60%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I wasn’t too sharp and after I had kinda given up on the market and decided that I would just sit and observe and take notes I caught myself being preoccupied with other things unrelated to trading. Gonna sleep early tonight and hopefully will have a good rest.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- I learned that even though PA isn’t behaving in a way I’m more comfortable with, the overall market context might still be valid and could be traded. Dabble with smaller positions until this feels more natural.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Keep doing the note-taking every half an hour (instead of doing it every few bars like I did before). This keeps my focus better aligned with the session.
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Overthink trades. If it fits the market context take the trade.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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