02252019 Monday — Huge drop

25 Feb 02252019 Monday — Huge drop

02252019 Mon­day — Fail­ure to con­tin­ue UT fol­lowed by huge drop

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon
-	2/21	2/22	2/23	2/24	2/25
Beers night before	1	0	5	4	0
Time bed yesterday	22:21	22:38	0:30	2:00	0:32
woke up	7:28	6:53	8:11	10:30	8:18
Hours sleep	9:07	8:15	7:41	8:30	7:46
Awake	1:36	1:44	1:03	-	0:55
REM	1:09	0:53	1:33	-	-
Light	4:58	4:42	3:58	-	-
Deep	1:24	0:56	1:07	-	-
Sleep well?	3	4	3	2	2
Mela­tonin	0	0	0	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	1	2	1	1	2
Exer­cise yester(to)day	4	4	4	4	4
Grat­i­tude	5	5	5	5	5
Joy	5	5	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	1	1	1
Focus	3	3	4	3	3
Cof­fees today	1TC morn­ing, 1 espres­so afternoon	1TC in the morning	1 espres­so in the afternoon	1 TC in the late morning	1 espres­so in the afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fasting	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Water L	3	3	3	3	3
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	0	10	5	0	0

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Morn­ing workout
  • Rule of 4
  • Inter­mit­tent fasting
• How do you feel?
  • I feel not too sharp. DIdn’t have a good night’s rest even though I slept ear­ly and didn’t drink much this week­end. The big cul­prit again was my hand. It’s gonna take some time to get bet­ter. Also, I fast­ed. I’ll keep doing it though and see if there’s a change. It’s not that I feel bad just not as sharp as I had hoped.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
  • Last Fri­day we start­ed the AS with away from Val­ue area even­tu­al­ly dur­ing LS break­ing out from LIS and Excess area test­ing prev high dur­ing NY

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Com­ing out tomorrow
• EIA report
  • Com­ing out Wednes­day 27th

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
      • High 57.641
      • Low 56.720
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 57.50 area
    • What didn’t hap­pen? Where do you think it should go?
      • Think it’s pos­si­ble that we will see a medi­um term DT a HTF PB before we con­tin­ue the UT
    • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
      • BD from LKC / VWAP
      • PB to HTF 50MA
• TTF
  • Dialling in on opportunities
    • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
      • Val­ue 57.20 area
      • Excess 57.80 area
    • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
      • HTF is still in a UT but looks to per­haps lose momen­tum and have a medi­um term correction. 
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • BD from Val­ue area
      • Val­ue area hold then pos­si­bly a failed BO from LIS and roll over
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • The AS moved up to LIS and reversed down to Val­ue area after BO from TTF 50MA 

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • Overex­tend down from Val­ue area hold Prev. Low and roll back up to LIS
    • Entry Long around 57
      • PT around 57.45
      • Stretched PT around 57.70
• Hypo 2 Long and then Short
  • Val­ue area hold and overex­ten­sion into LIS then roll over
    • Entry Long around 57.30
      • PT around 57.45
    • Entry Short around 57.45
      • PT around 57.30
      • Stretched PT around 56.90
• Hypo 3 Short 
  • BD from Val­ue area
    • Entry Short around 57.10
    • PT around 56.90
    • Stretched PT around 56.50

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING only 4 play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • At the open we were at LTF VWAP and just below TTF VWAP (near 50MA area) and we went over the LTF VWAP not cross­ing the TTF one and I thought of enter­ing short there. 
    • The TTF is show­ing inde­ci­sion around this lev­el so I will wait for the mar­ket to lead
  • 16:35
    • We dropped in high­er momen­tum move to just below LTF LKC. Pos­si­ble BD from Val­ue area. 
    • KC VWAP Con­ver­gence, pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion of the move
  • 17:05
    • Quick move to LTF UKC, KC VWAP convergence
    • TTF 50MA VWAP area
      • Took a quick scalp
    • Pos­si­ble move to LIS if BO from LTF UKC
  • 17:35
    • We reached LIS but have lost momen­tum it seems and we might have a short term swing rever­sal here
  • 18:05
    • PB to LTF UKC still look­ing bull­ish. Con­sol­i­da­tion going on.
  • 18:35
    • Momen­tum died off. PA very slug­gish with short moves at LIS.
    • TTF looks bull­ish but poten­tial for a PB first.
  • 19:05
    • Not much going on. No fol­low-through on moves. PA rang­ing between .46 and .56. Pos­si­ble ascend­ing tri­an­gle form­ing though.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
        • Pos­si­ble BD from val­ue area
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • High momen­tum move down
        • KC VWAP convergence
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 30% of intra­day loss
      • Entry: 57.154
  • SL
    • 57.267
  • TP
    • 57.05
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Added at 57.189
    • Think­ing it might reverse before a drop to TTF LKC area
    • Look­ing at LTF VWAP for my stop 
    • Stopped out at 57.306

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
        • 50MA
        • VWAP
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • KC VWAP Con­ver­gence is more prone for range trading
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 15% of intra­day loss
      • Entry: 57.393
  • SL
    • 57.42
  • TP
    • 57.273
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Cov­ered at LTF 50MA 57.347

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:	2/25/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute only 4 play­book trades
PNL (%)	-0.87%
Com­bined Score	70
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
8	Pre-mar­ket routines	8	Hypos
7	Ses­sion PECS	6	Real-time analy­sis
7	Trad­ing the process	6	Trade selec­tion
8	Dai­ly review	6	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
8	Progress toward Week­ly goal	6	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
38	Total	32

• Week­ly Goal
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING only 4 play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
• Review
  • I pulled the trig­ger on my setups when they arose but got stopped out. I ini­tial­ly got the move wrong and moved the SL because I want­ed to see how PA would react to LTF VWAP which I shouldn’t have done. Then tried to refo­cus on what was actu­al­ly going on in front of me and the trades I took after­wards were bet­ter in terms of exe­cu­tion but still got stopped out. Which is OK since they were valid in terms of my setup.
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo2 70%
    • There was no overex­ten­sion over LIS but over­all direc­tion was correct
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I feel tired and not too focused. I’ve been dis­tract­ed with work out­side trading. 
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Look at what is NOT hap­pen­ing. Price looked to BO from LIS but didn’t and PA was telling. There was no real buy­ers com­ing in around this level. 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Take setups when they arise
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Move SL

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.