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02252019 Monday — Huge drop

02252019 Monday — Huge drop

02252019 Mon­day — Fail­ure to con­tin­ue UT fol­lowed by huge drop

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeThuFriSatSunMon
Beers night before10540
Time bed yesterday22:2122:380:302:000:32
woke up7:286:538:1110:308:18
Hours sleep9:078:157:418:307:46
Sleep well?34322
Neg­a­tive thoughts?12112
Exer­cise yester(to)day44444
Cof­fees today1TC morn­ing, 1 espres­so afternoon1TC in the morning1 espres­so in the afternoon1 TC in the late morning1 espres­so in the afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fastingyesyesyesyesyes
Water L33333

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Morn­ing workout
    • Rule of 4
    • Inter­mit­tent fasting
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel not too sharp. DIdn’t have a good night’s rest even though I slept ear­ly and didn’t drink much this week­end. The big cul­prit again was my hand. It’s gonna take some time to get bet­ter. Also, I fast­ed. I’ll keep doing it though and see if there’s a change. It’s not that I feel bad just not as sharp as I had hoped.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 3

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Last Fri­day we start­ed the AS with away from Val­ue area even­tu­al­ly dur­ing LS break­ing out from LIS and Excess area test­ing prev high dur­ing NY

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Com­ing out tomorrow
  • EIA report
    • Com­ing out Wednes­day 27th

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High 57.641
        • Low 56.720
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 57.50 area
      • What didn’t hap­pen? Where do you think it should go?
        • Think it’s pos­si­ble that we will see a medi­um term DT a HTF PB before we con­tin­ue the UT
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • BD from LKC / VWAP
        • PB to HTF 50MA
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Val­ue 57.20 area
        • Excess 57.80 area
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • HTF is still in a UT but looks to per­haps lose momen­tum and have a medi­um term correction. 
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • BD from Val­ue area
        • Val­ue area hold then pos­si­bly a failed BO from LIS and roll over
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • The AS moved up to LIS and reversed down to Val­ue area after BO from TTF 50MA 

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • Overex­tend down from Val­ue area hold Prev. Low and roll back up to LIS
      • Entry Long around 57
        • PT around 57.45
        • Stretched PT around 57.70
  • Hypo 2 Long and then Short
    • Val­ue area hold and overex­ten­sion into LIS then roll over
      • Entry Long around 57.30
        • PT around 57.45
      • Entry Short around 57.45
        • PT around 57.30
        • Stretched PT around 56.90
  • Hypo 3 Short 
    • BD from Val­ue area
      • Entry Short around 57.10
      • PT around 56.90
      • Stretched PT around 56.50

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING only 4 play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • At the open we were at LTF VWAP and just below TTF VWAP (near 50MA area) and we went over the LTF VWAP not cross­ing the TTF one and I thought of enter­ing short there. 
      • The TTF is show­ing inde­ci­sion around this lev­el so I will wait for the mar­ket to lead
    • 16:35
      • We dropped in high­er momen­tum move to just below LTF LKC. Pos­si­ble BD from Val­ue area. 
      • KC VWAP Con­ver­gence, pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion of the move
    • 17:05
      • Quick move to LTF UKC, KC VWAP convergence
      • TTF 50MA VWAP area
        • Took a quick scalp
      • Pos­si­ble move to LIS if BO from LTF UKC
    • 17:35
      • We reached LIS but have lost momen­tum it seems and we might have a short term swing rever­sal here
    • 18:05
      • PB to LTF UKC still look­ing bull­ish. Con­sol­i­da­tion going on.
    • 18:35
      • Momen­tum died off. PA very slug­gish with short moves at LIS.
      • TTF looks bull­ish but poten­tial for a PB first.
    • 19:05
      • Not much going on. No fol­low-through on moves. PA rang­ing between .46 and .56. Pos­si­ble ascend­ing tri­an­gle form­ing though.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • Pos­si­ble BD from val­ue area
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • High momen­tum move down
          • KC VWAP convergence
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 30% of intra­day loss
        • Entry: 57.154
    • SL
      • 57.267
    • TP
      • 57.05
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Added at 57.189
      • Think­ing it might reverse before a drop to TTF LKC area
      • Look­ing at LTF VWAP for my stop 
      • Stopped out at 57.306
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • 50MA
          • VWAP
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • KC VWAP Con­ver­gence is more prone for range trading
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 15% of intra­day loss
        • Entry: 57.393
    • SL
      • 57.42
    • TP
      • 57.273
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Cov­ered at LTF 50MA 57.347

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:2/25/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute only 4 play­book trades
PNL (%)-0.87%
Com­bined Score70
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
8Pre-mar­ket routines8Hypos
7Ses­sion PECS6Real-time analy­sis
7Trad­ing the process6Trade selec­tion
8Dai­ly review6Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
8Progress toward Week­ly goal6Risk Adjust­ed Returns
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING only 4 play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • Review
    • I pulled the trig­ger on my setups when they arose but got stopped out. I ini­tial­ly got the move wrong and moved the SL because I want­ed to see how PA would react to LTF VWAP which I shouldn’t have done. Then tried to refo­cus on what was actu­al­ly going on in front of me and the trades I took after­wards were bet­ter in terms of exe­cu­tion but still got stopped out. Which is OK since they were valid in terms of my setup.
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Hypo2 70%
      • There was no overex­ten­sion over LIS but over­all direc­tion was correct
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I feel tired and not too focused. I’ve been dis­tract­ed with work out­side trading. 
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • Look at what is NOT hap­pen­ing. Price looked to BO from LIS but didn’t and PA was telling. There was no real buy­ers com­ing in around this level. 
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Take setups when they arise
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Move SL


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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