
25 Feb 02252019 Monday — Huge drop
02252019 Monday — Failure to continue UT followed by huge drop
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon |
- | 2/21 | 2/22 | 2/23 | 2/24 | 2/25 |
Beers night before | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Time bed yesterday | 22:21 | 22:38 | 0:30 | 2:00 | 0:32 |
woke up | 7:28 | 6:53 | 8:11 | 10:30 | 8:18 |
Hours sleep | 9:07 | 8:15 | 7:41 | 8:30 | 7:46 |
Awake | 1:36 | 1:44 | 1:03 | - | 0:55 |
REM | 1:09 | 0:53 | 1:33 | - | - |
Light | 4:58 | 4:42 | 3:58 | - | - |
Deep | 1:24 | 0:56 | 1:07 | - | - |
Sleep well? | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1TC morning, 1 espresso afternoon | 1TC in the morning | 1 espresso in the afternoon | 1 TC in the late morning | 1 espresso in the afternoon |
Intermittent fasting | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Water L | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 0 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- Morning workout
- Rule of 4
- Intermittent fasting
- How do you feel?
- I feel not too sharp. DIdn’t have a good night’s rest even though I slept early and didn’t drink much this weekend. The big culprit again was my hand. It’s gonna take some time to get better. Also, I fasted. I’ll keep doing it though and see if there’s a change. It’s not that I feel bad just not as sharp as I had hoped.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- Last Friday we started the AS with away from Value area eventually during LS breaking out from LIS and Excess area testing prev high during NY
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Coming out tomorrow
- EIA report
- Coming out Wednesday 27th
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 57.641
- Low 56.720
- Where is the LIS?
- 57.50 area
- What didn’t happen? Where do you think it should go?
- Think it’s possible that we will see a medium term DT a HTF PB before we continue the UT
- Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
- BD from LKC / VWAP
- PB to HTF 50MA
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Value 57.20 area
- Excess 57.80 area
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- HTF is still in a UT but looks to perhaps lose momentum and have a medium term correction.
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- BD from Value area
- Value area hold then possibly a failed BO from LIS and roll over
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- The AS moved up to LIS and reversed down to Value area after BO from TTF 50MA
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Long
- Overextend down from Value area hold Prev. Low and roll back up to LIS
- Entry Long around 57
- PT around 57.45
- Stretched PT around 57.70
- Entry Long around 57
- Overextend down from Value area hold Prev. Low and roll back up to LIS
- Hypo 2 Long and then Short
- Value area hold and overextension into LIS then roll over
- Entry Long around 57.30
- PT around 57.45
- Entry Short around 57.45
- PT around 57.30
- Stretched PT around 56.90
- Entry Long around 57.30
- Value area hold and overextension into LIS then roll over
- Hypo 3 Short
- BD from Value area
- Entry Short around 57.10
- PT around 56.90
- Stretched PT around 56.50
- BD from Value area
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by EXECUTING only 4 playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 16:05
- At the open we were at LTF VWAP and just below TTF VWAP (near 50MA area) and we went over the LTF VWAP not crossing the TTF one and I thought of entering short there.
- The TTF is showing indecision around this level so I will wait for the market to lead
- 16:35
- We dropped in higher momentum move to just below LTF LKC. Possible BD from Value area.
- KC VWAP Convergence, possible continuation of the move
- 17:05
- Quick move to LTF UKC, KC VWAP convergence
- TTF 50MA VWAP area
- Took a quick scalp
- Possible move to LIS if BO from LTF UKC
- 17:35
- We reached LIS but have lost momentum it seems and we might have a short term swing reversal here
- 18:05
- PB to LTF UKC still looking bullish. Consolidation going on.
- 18:35
- Momentum died off. PA very sluggish with short moves at LIS.
- TTF looks bullish but potential for a PB first.
- 19:05
- Not much going on. No follow-through on moves. PA ranging between .46 and .56. Possible ascending triangle forming though.
- 16:05
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- Possible BD from value area
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- High momentum move down
- KC VWAP convergence
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 30% of intraday loss
- Entry: 57.154
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 57.267
- TP
- 57.05
- Trade Management
- Added at 57.189
- Thinking it might reverse before a drop to TTF LKC area
- Looking at LTF VWAP for my stop
- Stopped out at 57.306
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- 50MA
- VWAP
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- KC VWAP Convergence is more prone for range trading
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 15% of intraday loss
- Entry: 57.393
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 57.42
- TP
- 57.273
- Trade Management
- Covered at LTF 50MA 57.347
- Why? What do I see?
Daily Report Card
Date: | 2/25/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute only 4 playbook trades |
PNL (%) | -0.87% | ||
Combined Score | 70 | ||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
8 | Pre-market routines | 8 | Hypos |
7 | Session PECS | 6 | Real-time analysis |
7 | Trading the process | 6 | Trade selection |
8 | Daily review | 6 | Trade Execution & Mgmt. |
8 | Progress toward Weekly goal | 6 | Risk Adjusted Returns |
38 | Total | 32 | |
- Weekly Goal
- Perform well by EXECUTING only 4 playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- Review
- I pulled the trigger on my setups when they arose but got stopped out. I initially got the move wrong and moved the SL because I wanted to see how PA would react to LTF VWAP which I shouldn’t have done. Then tried to refocus on what was actually going on in front of me and the trades I took afterwards were better in terms of execution but still got stopped out. Which is OK since they were valid in terms of my setup.
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Hypo2 70%
- There was no overextension over LIS but overall direction was correct
- Hypo2 70%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I feel tired and not too focused. I’ve been distracted with work outside trading.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- Look at what is NOT happening. Price looked to BO from LIS but didn’t and PA was telling. There was no real buyers coming in around this level.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Take setups when they arise
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Move SL
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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