
26 Feb 02262019 Tuesday — TTF Squeeze
02262019 Tuesday — TTF Squeeze
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- R/R = Risk to Reward
- M2M = Move to Move
- T2H = Trade to Hold
- DT = DownTrend
- UT = UpTrend
- LTF = Lower Time Frame
- TTF = Trading Time Frame
- HTF = Higher Time Frame
- Hypo = HYPOthetical
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon | Tue |
- | 2/22 | 2/23 | 2/24 | 2/25 | 2/26 |
Beers night before | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Time bed yesterday | 22:38 | 0:30 | 2:00 | 0:32 | 22:19 |
woke up | 6:53 | 8:11 | 10:30 | 8:18 | 7:09 |
Hours sleep | 8:15 | 7:41 | 8:30 | 7:46 | 8:50 |
Awake | 1:44 | 1:03 | - | 0:55 | 1:40 |
REM | 0:53 | 1:33 | - | - | 1:15 |
Light | 4:42 | 3:58 | - | - | 5:03 |
Deep | 0:56 | 1:07 | - | - | 0:52 |
Sleep well? | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 x |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1TC in the morning | 1 espresso in the afternoon | 1 TC in the late morning | 1 espresso in the afternoon | 1TC morning, 1 espresso afternoon |
Intermittent fasting | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Water L | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Vitamins | yes | yes | yes | yes | yes |
Cigarettes | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Health review (for the past week)
- Weekly goal
- Morning workout
- Done
- Intermittent fasting
- Rule of 4
- Morning workout
- How do you feel?
- I feel better than yesterday. Concentration isn’t optimal yet but better as well.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 4
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday? Where are the technical levels?
- During the AS we started off at the value area and basically traded in a range between value and LIS
- At London open we dropped to value area and then moved higher to LIS before we had a huge drop that continued into US
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Coming out today
- EIA report
- Tomorrow
- Forecast 3.589M
- Tomorrow
Intraday Technical Analysis
- HTF
- Define context
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- High 57.642
- Low 55.195
- Where is the LIS?
- 57.25 area
- What didn’t happen? Where do you think it should go?
- We could potentially see a bounce off the 55 area but since we didn’t quite reach the HTF LKC I think there might be some room left for another leg down into HTF 200MA
- Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
- A HTF PB to Value area and then a continuation of the HTF DT to HTF LKC and possibly beyond
- Where were the overnight highs and lows?
- Define context
- TTF
- Dialling in on opportunities
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Value 55.90 area
- Excess 57.60 area
- Is there a shift in value/excess migration? What is the current market condition? Are we trending, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
- We are in a HTF DT but might be due for a HTF PB before a trend continuation
- What trade locations among this structure would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
- A PB to TTF LKC or TTF 50MA to then continue the HTF DT
- Where are the areas of established “value” and “excess”?
- Dialling in on opportunities
- LTF
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- During AS we made a move up to TTF VWAP and then made a leg down to prev low at 55.20
- What has the Asian Session printed?
Trade Idea
- Hypo 1 Short
- BD from Prev Low — possible overextension down into 54.50 and consequent reversal
- Entry Short around 55.10
- PT around 54.90
- Stretched PT around 54.5, 53.90
- In case of reversal
- Entry Long around 54.80
- PT around 55.10
- BD from Prev Low — possible overextension down into 54.50 and consequent reversal
- Hypo 2 Short
- A move from prev low to Value area CAR then continue HTF DT
- Entry around 55.70
- PT around 55.30
- Stretched PT area around 54.90
- A move from prev low to Value area CAR then continue HTF DT
- Hypo 3 Long
- CAS Prev Low and move to Value area
- Entry around 54.50
- PT 55.80
- Stretched PT area around 56
- CAS Prev Low and move to Value area
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Define winning
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- 16:05
- Drop to LTF 50MA TTF VWAP seems to hold
- 16:35
- Move to LTF UKC 200MA crossing on higher momentum but then momentum died off. Looking to potentially fail as BO and have a TTF PB first.
- 17:05
- PA very sluggish. No follow-through on potential BO for now.
- TTF shows a possible breach from TTF LKC and we are above the TTF VWAP so there might be more buyers coming in.
- When PA is trying to inch higher it looks like possibly buyers are being absorbed
- 17:35
- We haven’t been able to breach LTF 200MA back down yet and it seems to be holding as support quite nicely and I expect price to move away from this level even though PA looks bearish.
- My trade got stopped out.
- 18:05
- We rallied to today’s high and might be running into interference here. This is also near the TTF 50MA and sellers might be coming in here.
- 16:05
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- TTF
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- TTF LKC possible breach
- Where are we as opposed to the value, excess and LIS areas? What technical level are we at?
- LTF
- Is LTF confirming?
- LTF crossed 200MA but loss of momentum
- What risk am I going to put on?
- 20% of intraday loss
- Entry: 55.499
- Is LTF confirming?
- TTF
- SL
- 55.611
- TP
- 55.328
- Trade Management
- I first went long but then I scratched that and went short since I saw a Swing Reversal at a technical level
- PA stopped at LTF 200MA with no follow-through on a potential BD so I’m thinking to scratch the trade
- Gonna get stopped out
- Stopped out
- Why? What do I see?
Daily Report Card
Date: | 2/26/2019 | Weekly Goal | Execute only 4 playbook trades |
PNL (%) | -0.27% | ||
Combined Score | 68 | ||
Process Report Card (10 each) | Performance Report Card (10 each) | ||
8 | Pre-market routines | 6 | Hypos |
7 | Session PECS | 6 | Real-time analysis |
7 | Trading the process | 6 | Trade selection |
8 | Daily review | 6 | Trade Execution & Mgmt. |
8 | Progress toward Weekly goal | 6 | Risk Adjusted Returns |
38 | Total | 30 | |
- Weekly Goal
- Perform well by EXECUTING playbook setups and be happy by doing what I love and understanding that I give myself over to the randomness of the market
- Review
- I scratched out one trade and 2nd got stopped out.
- Lately, I feel more and more that I should do more backtesting (which I have started already) and define better what my A/A+ setups are. Because I’ve been taking all these subpar trades. Although they are in my playbook I don’t feel they should be qualified as A/A+ setups. So back to the drawing board for me.
- What exactly am I going to do?
- Started backtesting with the new contextual approach (market profile) since October (which is almost finished), continue doing November and December as well.
- With these 3 months of data get an understanding of
- How many times the setups occur
- What the market conditions are for the best R/R setups
- Write out plan for those best R/R setup
- Only trade those setups
- How accurate was my assessment of market context?
- Hypo2 60%
- How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I am not at my best today. Too distracted with other things going on. Took note of certain events that might impact focus.
- What’s one thing you learned today?
- I need to grow more confident in my setups by understanding the statistics behind it better.
- What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Focus on working on the process, not the outcome.
- What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Constantly be working on trading. Understand when you have had enough for the day and walk away do something nice with close ones.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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