02262019 Tuesday — TTF Squeeze

26 Feb 02262019 Tuesday — TTF Squeeze

02262019 Tues­day — TTF Squeeze

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon	Tue
-	2/22	2/23	2/24	2/25	2/26
Beers night before	0	5	4	0	0
Time bed yesterday	22:38	0:30	2:00	0:32	22:19
woke up	6:53	8:11	10:30	8:18	7:09
Hours sleep	8:15	7:41	8:30	7:46	8:50
Awake	1:44	1:03	-	0:55	1:40
REM	0:53	1:33	-	-	1:15
Light	4:42	3:58	-	-	5:03
Deep	0:56	1:07	-	-	0:52
Sleep well?	4	3	2	2	3
Mela­tonin	0	0	0	0	0.5 x
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	2	1	1	2	2
Exer­cise yester(to)day	4	4	4	4	4
Grat­i­tude	5	5	5	5	5
Joy	5	5	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	1	1	1
Focus	3	4	3	3	3
Cof­fees today	1TC in the morning	1 espres­so in the afternoon	1 TC in the late morning	1 espres­so in the afternoon	1TC morn­ing, 1 espres­so afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fasting	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Water L	3	3	3	3	3
Vit­a­mins	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
Cig­a­rettes	10	5	0	0	0

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Morn­ing workout
    • Done
  • Inter­mit­tent fasting
  • Rule of 4
• How do you feel?
  • I feel bet­ter than yes­ter­day. Con­cen­tra­tion isn’t opti­mal yet but bet­ter as well. 
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 4

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
  • Dur­ing the AS we start­ed off at the val­ue area and basi­cal­ly trad­ed in a range between val­ue and LIS
  • At Lon­don open we dropped to val­ue area and then moved high­er to LIS before we had a huge drop that con­tin­ued into US

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Com­ing out today
• EIA report
  • Tomor­row
    • Fore­cast 3.589M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
      • High 57.642
      • Low 55.195
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 57.25 area
    • What didn’t hap­pen? Where do you think it should go?
      • We could poten­tial­ly see a bounce off the 55 area but since we didn’t quite reach the HTF LKC I think there might be some room left for anoth­er leg down into HTF 200MA
    • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
      • A HTF PB to Val­ue area and then a con­tin­u­a­tion of the HTF DT to HTF LKC and pos­si­bly beyond
• TTF
  • Dialling in on opportunities
    • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
      • Val­ue 55.90 area
      • Excess 57.60 area
    • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
      • We are in a HTF DT but might be due for a HTF PB before a trend continuation
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • A PB to TTF LKC or TTF 50MA to then con­tin­ue the HTF DT
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Dur­ing AS we made a move up to TTF VWAP and then made a leg down to prev low at 55.20

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short 
  • BD from Prev Low — pos­si­ble overex­ten­sion down into 54.50 and con­se­quent reversal
    • Entry Short around 55.10
    • PT around 54.90
    • Stretched PT around 54.5, 53.90
    • In case of reversal 
      • Entry Long around 54.80
      • PT around 55.10
• Hypo 2 Short
  • A move from prev low to Val­ue area CAR then con­tin­ue HTF DT
    • Entry around 55.70
    • PT around 55.30
    • Stretched PT area around 54.90
• Hypo 3 Long
  • CAS Prev Low and move to Val­ue area
    • Entry around 54.50
    • PT 55.80
    • Stretched PT area around 56

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • Drop to LTF 50MA TTF VWAP seems to hold
  • 16:35
    • Move to LTF UKC 200MA cross­ing on high­er momen­tum but then momen­tum died off. Look­ing to poten­tial­ly fail as BO and have a TTF PB first.
  • 17:05
    • PA very slug­gish. No fol­low-through on poten­tial BO for now. 
    • TTF shows a pos­si­ble breach from TTF LKC and we are above the TTF VWAP so there might be more buy­ers com­ing in.
    • When PA is try­ing to inch high­er it looks like pos­si­bly buy­ers are being absorbed
  • 17:35
    • We haven’t been able to breach LTF 200MA back down yet and it seems to be hold­ing as sup­port quite nice­ly and I expect price to move away from this lev­el even though PA looks bearish. 
    • My trade got stopped out. 
  • 18:05
    • We ral­lied to today’s high and might be run­ning into inter­fer­ence here. This is also near the TTF 50MA and sell­ers might be com­ing in here. 

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • TTF
      • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
        • TTF LKC pos­si­ble breach
    • LTF
      • Is LTF confirming?
        • LTF crossed 200MA but loss of momentum
      • What risk am I going to put on?
        • 20% of intra­day loss
      • Entry: 55.499
  • SL
    • 55.611
  • TP
    • 55.328
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I first went long but then I scratched that and went short since I saw a Swing Rever­sal at a tech­ni­cal level
    • PA stopped at LTF 200MA with no fol­low-through on a poten­tial BD so I’m think­ing to scratch the trade
    • Gonna get stopped out
    • Stopped out

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:	2/26/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute only 4 play­book trades
PNL (%)	-0.27%
Com­bined Score	68
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
8	Pre-mar­ket routines	6	Hypos
7	Ses­sion PECS	6	Real-time analy­sis
7	Trad­ing the process	6	Trade selec­tion
8	Dai­ly review	6	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
8	Progress toward Week­ly goal	6	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
38	Total	30

• Week­ly Goal
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
• Review
  • I scratched out one trade and 2nd got stopped out. 
  • Late­ly, I feel more and more that I should do more back­test­ing (which I have start­ed already) and define bet­ter what my A/A+ setups are. Because I’ve been tak­ing all these sub­par trades. Although they are in my play­book I don’t feel they should be qual­i­fied as A/A+ setups. So back to the draw­ing board for me.
  • What exact­ly am I going to do?
    • Start­ed back­test­ing with the new con­tex­tu­al approach (mar­ket pro­file) since Octo­ber (which is almost fin­ished), con­tin­ue doing Novem­ber and Decem­ber as well.
    • With these 3 months of data get an under­stand­ing of
      • How many times the setups occur
      • What the mar­ket con­di­tions are for the best R/R setups
      • Write out plan for those best R/R setup
      • Only trade those setups
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo2 60%
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I am not at my best today. Too dis­tract­ed with oth­er things going on. Took note of cer­tain events that might impact focus.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I need to grow more con­fi­dent in my setups by under­stand­ing the sta­tis­tics behind it better. 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Focus on work­ing on the process, not the outcome. 
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Con­stant­ly be work­ing on trad­ing. Under­stand when you have had enough for the day and walk away do some­thing nice with close ones. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.