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02262019 Tuesday — TTF Squeeze

02262019 Tuesday — TTF Squeeze

02262019 Tues­day — TTF Squeeze

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeFriSatSunMonTue
-2/222/232/242/252/26
Beers night before05400
Time bed yesterday22:380:302:000:3222:19
woke up6:538:1110:308:187:09
Hours sleep8:157:418:307:468:50
Awake1:441:03-0:551:40
REM0:531:33--1:15
Light4:423:58--5:03
Deep0:561:07--0:52
Sleep well?43223
Mela­tonin00000.5 x
Neg­a­tive thoughts?21122
Exer­cise yester(to)day44444
Grat­i­tude55555
Joy55555
Anger11111
Fear11111
Focus34333
Cof­fees today1TC in the morning1 espres­so in the afternoon1 TC in the late morning1 espres­so in the afternoon1TC morn­ing, 1 espres­so afternoon
Inter­mit­tent fastingyesyesyesyesyes
Water L33333
Vit­a­minsyesyesyesyesyes
Cig­a­rettes105000

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Morn­ing workout
      • Done
    • Inter­mit­tent fasting
    • Rule of 4
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel bet­ter than yes­ter­day. Con­cen­tra­tion isn’t opti­mal yet but bet­ter as well. 
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 4

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yes­ter­day? Where are the tech­ni­cal levels?
    • Dur­ing the AS we start­ed off at the val­ue area and basi­cal­ly trad­ed in a range between val­ue and LIS
    • At Lon­don open we dropped to val­ue area and then moved high­er to LIS before we had a huge drop that con­tin­ued into US

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Com­ing out today
  • EIA report
    • Tomor­row
      • Fore­cast 3.589M

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows?
        • High 57.642
        • Low 55.195
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 57.25 area
      • What didn’t hap­pen? Where do you think it should go?
        • We could poten­tial­ly see a bounce off the 55 area but since we didn’t quite reach the HTF LKC I think there might be some room left for anoth­er leg down into HTF 200MA
      • Where’s the best R/R? Opportunities?
        • A HTF PB to Val­ue area and then a con­tin­u­a­tion of the HTF DT to HTF LKC and pos­si­bly beyond
  • TTF
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Where are the areas of estab­lished “val­ue” and “excess”?
        • Val­ue 55.90 area
        • Excess 57.60 area
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • We are in a HTF DT but might be due for a HTF PB before a trend continuation
      • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
        • A PB to TTF LKC or TTF 50MA to then con­tin­ue the HTF DT
  • LTF
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • Dur­ing AS we made a move up to TTF VWAP and then made a leg down to prev low at 55.20

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short 
    • BD from Prev Low — pos­si­ble overex­ten­sion down into 54.50 and con­se­quent reversal
      • Entry Short around 55.10
      • PT around 54.90
      • Stretched PT around 54.5, 53.90
      • In case of reversal 
        • Entry Long around 54.80
        • PT around 55.10
  • Hypo 2 Short
    • A move from prev low to Val­ue area CAR then con­tin­ue HTF DT
      • Entry around 55.70
      • PT around 55.30
      • Stretched PT area around 54.90
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • CAS Prev Low and move to Val­ue area
      • Entry around 54.50
      • PT 55.80
      • Stretched PT area around 56

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • Drop to LTF 50MA TTF VWAP seems to hold
    • 16:35
      • Move to LTF UKC 200MA cross­ing on high­er momen­tum but then momen­tum died off. Look­ing to poten­tial­ly fail as BO and have a TTF PB first.
    • 17:05
      • PA very slug­gish. No fol­low-through on poten­tial BO for now. 
      • TTF shows a pos­si­ble breach from TTF LKC and we are above the TTF VWAP so there might be more buy­ers com­ing in.
      • When PA is try­ing to inch high­er it looks like pos­si­bly buy­ers are being absorbed
    • 17:35
      • We haven’t been able to breach LTF 200MA back down yet and it seems to be hold­ing as sup­port quite nice­ly and I expect price to move away from this lev­el even though PA looks bearish. 
      • My trade got stopped out. 
    • 18:05
      • We ral­lied to today’s high and might be run­ning into inter­fer­ence here. This is also near the TTF 50MA and sell­ers might be com­ing in here. 

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • TTF
        • Where are we as opposed to the val­ue, excess and LIS areas? What tech­ni­cal lev­el are we at?
          • TTF LKC pos­si­ble breach
      • LTF
        • Is LTF confirming?
          • LTF crossed 200MA but loss of momentum
        • What risk am I going to put on?
          • 20% of intra­day loss
        • Entry: 55.499
    • SL
      • 55.611
    • TP
      • 55.328
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I first went long but then I scratched that and went short since I saw a Swing Rever­sal at a tech­ni­cal level
      • PA stopped at LTF 200MA with no fol­low-through on a poten­tial BD so I’m think­ing to scratch the trade
      • Gonna get stopped out
      • Stopped out

Dai­ly Report Card

Date:2/26/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute only 4 play­book trades
PNL (%)-0.27%
Com­bined Score68
Process Report Card (10 each)Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
8Pre-mar­ket routines6Hypos
7Ses­sion PECS6Real-time analy­sis
7Trad­ing the process6Trade selec­tion
8Dai­ly review6Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
8Progress toward Week­ly goal6Risk Adjust­ed Returns
38Total30
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
  • Review
    • I scratched out one trade and 2nd got stopped out. 
    • Late­ly, I feel more and more that I should do more back­test­ing (which I have start­ed already) and define bet­ter what my A/A+ setups are. Because I’ve been tak­ing all these sub­par trades. Although they are in my play­book I don’t feel they should be qual­i­fied as A/A+ setups. So back to the draw­ing board for me.
    • What exact­ly am I going to do?
      • Start­ed back­test­ing with the new con­tex­tu­al approach (mar­ket pro­file) since Octo­ber (which is almost fin­ished), con­tin­ue doing Novem­ber and Decem­ber as well.
      • With these 3 months of data get an under­stand­ing of
        • How many times the setups occur
        • What the mar­ket con­di­tions are for the best R/R setups
        • Write out plan for those best R/R setup
        • Only trade those setups
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Hypo2 60%
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • I am not at my best today. Too dis­tract­ed with oth­er things going on. Took note of cer­tain events that might impact focus.
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • I need to grow more con­fi­dent in my setups by under­stand­ing the sta­tis­tics behind it better. 
  • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
    • Focus on work­ing on the process, not the outcome. 
  • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
    • Con­stant­ly be work­ing on trad­ing. Under­stand when you have had enough for the day and walk away do some­thing nice with close ones. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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