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03062019 Monday — HTF TT — TTF200MABO - Bear Market Trader
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03062019 Monday — HTF TT — TTF200MABO

03062019 Monday — HTF TT — TTF200MABO

03062019 Mon­day — HTF TT — TTF200MABO

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat less carbs
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good. Worked out yesterday.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Next release tomor­row, Tues­day June 4th
  • EIA report
    • Next release Wednes­day, June 5th

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 56.662
        • PVAH 56.265
        • PPOC 56.056
        • PVAL 54.938
        • Low 53.107
      • Where is the LIS?
        • Prev Low area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We haven’t found a bot­tom yet but could be this week
      • Dialling in on opportunities
        • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
          • Imbal­ance still very much in effect on HTF but per­haps we’ll find a bot­tom this week
  • TTF
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • TTF200MACAR
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • After open­ing on a straight drop we have been trad­ing in a HTF PB to VWAP LKC area which could set us up for a HTF D TC play

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • TTF200MACAR
    • Entry around 53.30
    • Tar­gets 52.90, 52.60, 52.30
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • Prev Low CAS
    • Entry around 53.25
    • Tar­gets 53.50, 53.80
  • Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 52.60 — 53.50

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • LTF A/D going on, pos­si­ble dou­ble bot­tom on TTF with pos­si­ble TTF50MABO which is also LTF200MABO, HTF show­ing a pos­si­ble short-term rever­sal long, no clar­i­ty yet
    • 16:35
      • TTF A/D, LTF R in effect
      • BD / BO both possible
    • 17:05
      • Momen­tum move to TTF200MA pos­si­ble BO
    • 17:35
      • Pos­si­ble PB after TTF200MABO and move to HTF50MA thus pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to the move
    • 18:05
      • TTF A/D @ HTF 50MA = High Momen­tum PB (above 1.0SD)
    • 18:35
      • Slight loss of momen­tum indi­cat­ed by 2 cross­es of 1.0SD but no break yet
      • We didn’t ful­ly break out from HTF50MA but this could just be a PB
      • Pos­si­ble PB to TTF VWAP LKC
    • 19:05
      • Momen­tum slowed down but still over TTF VWAP indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion as does HTF show enough space to the upside (at least till UKC
    • 19:35
      • We made a short­er leg up but on low momen­tum just below HTF UKC fol­lowed by a doji can­dle indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble rever­sal (PA being near HTF UKC would indi­cate valid­i­ty to the reversal)
      • How­ev­er the short moves on the HTF could pos­si­ble indi­cate a HTFUKCBO

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • HTF
        • HTF D TT
      • TTF
        • TTF200MABO
        • Entry 1 @ 53.428
      • LTF
        • LTF U NT
    • SL
      • TP
        • 53.884
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Cov­ered at 53.498
    • T2
      • Why? What do I see?
        • HTF
          • HTF D TT
        • TTF
          • TTF200MABO
          • Entry 2 @ 53.616
        • LTF
          • LTF U TC
      • SL
        • 53.443
      • TP
        • 53.952
      • Trade Man­age­ment
        • Cov­ered at 53.744

    Dai­ly Report Card

    Trade Idea

    • Hypo 1 Short
      • TTF200MACAR
      • Entry around 53.30
      • Tar­gets 52.90, 52.60, 52.30
    • Hypo 2 Long
      • Prev Low CAS
      • Entry around 53.25
      • Tar­gets 53.50, 53.80
    • Hypo 3 Rota­tion­al 52.60 — 53.50









    Date:6/3/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)















    Com­bined Score87











    Process Report Card (10 each)
    Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)

    10Ses­sion PECS100%10Real-time analy­sis

    8Hypos2/210Setups Iden­ti­fied (TEST)

    9Trad­ing the process2/210Setups tak­en

    10Dai­ly review010Erro­neous Entries

    10Progress tow. week­ly goal20Erro­neous Exits

    47Total
    40








    • Week­ly Goal
      • Have patience in only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
    • Review
    P/L ticksEntry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeMis­takes (if any)Siz­ingHit Tar­get?Rea­son to coverProb­lemPro­posed solutionAction
    701(exper­i­men­tal) TTF200MABOTP too soon1NOFOLP — Fear Of Los­ing Profitsthought a PB would come but if even that did hap­pen I should have stayed in the trade but was scared of los­ing prof­its againHTF gives me direc­tion, and TP tar­gets. Trust in your HTF.Replay + PB + Cre­ate for­mat to track exits
    12.801(exper­i­men­tal) TTF200MABOTP too soon2NOFOLP — Fear Of Los­ing ProfitsEven though price reversed short­ly after I cov­ered. I did­n’t cov­er because of this. I cov­ered because I was scared of los­ing prof­its — I keep re-enforc­ing that my trend exit rule is valid and I should adhere to it, keep track of it and replay it to grow more con­fi­dent in itHTF gives me direc­tion, and TP tar­gets. Trust in your HTF.Replay + PB + Cre­ate for­mat to track exits
    • Gonna take a point off trad­ing the process (since I don’t have a cat­e­go­ry for pre-mar­ket prep) because I feel I rushed that a lit­tle bit when it came to the hypos.
    • Took 2 exper­i­men­tal trades and am hap­py that I was able to iden­ti­fy and take them. I used 1/10th of nor­mal siz­ing on the first and 2/10th on the second
    • Not hap­py with why I cov­ered. This was pure­ly out of fear of los­ing prof­its and as I not­ed in my jour­nal I will work on this by replay­ing, adding to my PB, but more impor­tant­ly cre­ate a for­mat to track exits. Start­ing any­where is bet­ter than start­ing nowhere. 
    • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
      • Hypo 2 80% because it wasn’t a CAS as much as a BO
      • Real-time analy­sis was good. I did real­ly well here. Shows what you can do with some patience.
    • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
      • Did real­ly well here. 
    • What’s one thing you learned today?
      • I learned how the in what stage of the HTF cycle cre­ates the con­text to a BO move on the TTF. This is so cool…. Can’t wait to dive in deep­er and com­pare pre­vi­ous notes in my PB.
    • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
      • Be dili­gent in my process.
    • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
      • Take prof­its too soon. I need to let win­ners run to be able to jus­ti­fy my stop loss­es when I get stopped out. When I cut win­ners too soon I can’t jus­ti­fy the stop loss­es I have. Just as you know how to take your SL. Take your TP when it hits. And hate to say it but again…. HTF mar­ket con­text has proven a great TP tar­get area. Come on. Trust in your analy­sis and let prob­a­bil­i­ty have the chance to work!

    Feed­back?

    Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

    T3chAddict
    t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

    Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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