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05082019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal

05082019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal

05082019 Mon­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • R = Range
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical
  • AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

  • Week­ly goal
    • Do inter­mit­tent fast­ing at least 4 days
  • How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
    • I feel a bit under the weath­er and should watch out today.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
    • 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2

Mar­ket Prep

Intraweek Fun­da­men­tals

  • API report
    • Tomor­row
  • EIA report
    • Wednes­day, August 7th

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HHTF
    • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • After we had an exhaust­ed drop DTT we moved back into KC with pos­si­ble LKCCAS
  • HTF
    • Lev­els
      • Prev. High 56.034
      • PVAH 55.912
      • PPOC 55.338
      • PVAL 54.929
      • Prev. Low 54.167
    • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
      • HTF Could go into R after we had a UKCCAR we would be look­ing for a LKCCAS to con­firm the R
      • Bias in LKC ter­ri­to­ry is Long
  • TTF
    • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
      • PA has trad­ed with­in HTF VWAP and could remain above this with­out actu­al­ly going for the HTFLKCCAS

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • HTFLKCCAS
    • Entry around 54.75
    • Tar­gets 55.20, 55.65
  • Hypo 2 Rotational
    • 54.90 — 55.70
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • HTF R 50MABO
    • Entry around 55.40
    • Tar­gets 55.70, 56.- , extend­ed 56.50
  • Hypo 4 Long
    • HTF R Oversold
    • Entry around 54.50
    • Tar­gets 55.30

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
    • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 15:35
      • HHTF
        • PA not clean­ly respect­ing LKC, poten­tial for short to medi­um term downside
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • TTF R not entire­ly con­firmed, small PA slop­ing down no clear rejec­tion of sup­port lev­el as of yet, poten­tial for more down­side first
      • TTF
        • Bounce off 54.80 but no clear rejec­tion yet
      • Bias
        • If this stays the same my bias is towards the short side for now unless we find some support
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • HTF LKCBD
            • short
          • But stay open for signs of a HTF R Over­sold to go long
            • Long 
    • 16:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Small PA slop­ing down still no clear mar­ket move­ment yet
      • TTF
        • Bounces going down test­ing LKC at the moment
      • Bias
        • Short 
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • HTFLKCBD
    • 16:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • No evi­dent rejec­tion of HTF LKC on the HTF yet
      • TTF
        • Push back on TTF from LKC to VWAP
      • Bias
        • Long if we can hold above TTF50MA
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Con­fir­ma­tion of long bias as TTF R 50MABO+PB
    • 17:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Still small PA slop­ing down with a doji can­dle that doesn’t look too valu­able at LKC, now if it were up at a resis­tance lev­el than it would have been
      • TTF
        • TTF R has kept below 50MA hence the still short bias for the moment, PA still slop­ing down with a rejec­tion at 50MA and some sup­port in TTF R over­sold posi­tion at 2.0 SD. Look­ing for some­thing more defin­i­tive though. Although the last swing high aws a short one we could see some con­dens­ing of pres­sure build­ing up for a poten­tial 50MABO
      • Bias
        • Short unless we break 50MA
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • TTF50MACAR
          • TTF50MABO+PB
    • 17:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • We made a move away from LKC but no real CAS in my opin­ion, pos­si­ble HTF50MACAR
      • TTF
        • 50MABO which turns my bias into long but will wait for a prop­er PB before con­sid­er­ing hop­ping on long. There could be a UKCCAR instead which would be in line with HTF 50MACAR
      • Bias
        • Unclear, wait­ing for con­fir­ma­tion of a hold above 50 or per­haps a CAR of TTFUKC or HTF50MA
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTFUKCCAR/HTF50MACAR
          • Short 
        • TTF50MABO+PB
    • 18:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Test­ing 50MA pos­si­ble BO
      • TTF
        • Test­ing 200MA pos­si­ble BO
      • Bias
        • Long even though I took a short @ TTF200MA HTF50MA
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Wait for BO
    • 18:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • We made a HHTF HL and have moved to HTF50MA how­ev­er no BO (yet)
      • TTF
        • Lots of AD @ 200MA and even though I took the CAR play it looks like there might be more upside
      • Bias
        • Long since we held above 50MA
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • Wait for con­fir­ma­tion of TTF200MABO+PB to go long

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Long
    • HTFLKCCAS
    • Entry around 54.75
    • Tar­gets 55.20, 55.65
  • Hypo 2 Rotational
    • 54.90 — 55.70
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • HTF R 50MABO
    • Entry around 55.40
    • Tar­gets 55.70, 56.- , extend­ed 56.50
  • Hypo 4 Long
    • HTF R Oversold
    • Entry around 54.50
    • Tar­gets 55.30




Dai­ly Report Card



Date:8/5/2019



Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ / A setups



Com­bined Score99



Process Report Card (10 each)

10Ses­sion PECS

9Hypos

10Mar­ket Prep

10Dai­ly review

10Progress tow. week­ly goal

49Total






Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%10Real-time analy­sis
2/210Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
2/210Setups tak­en
0/210Erro­neous Entries
0/210Erro­neous Exits

50total



  • Week­ly Goal
    • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
    • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
  • Review
TradeEntry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSiz­ingRea­son to coverProb­lemPro­posed solution
Ses­sion--------
100TTF R 50MACAR +PB to VWAP2TPHit tar­get--
1002TPHit tar­get--
200HTF50MA CAR (front side)2SOStopped out--
300HTF50MA CAR3/5TPHit tar­get--
3002/5TPHit tar­get--
  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
    • Hypo 1 — 90%
      • Tech­ni­cal­ly it’s a 100% but it didn’t hap­pen the way I would have liked but still iden­ti­fied and took posi­tions on it. 
    • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
      • Did great here
  • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
    • P: Was feel­ing a bit under the weath­er so cut down on siz­ing accordingly
    • E: Did great here
    • CS: Did great here
  • What’s one thing you learned today?
    • This was a great day for under­stand­ing the direc­tion­al cues in today’s session. 
  • Positive(s)
    • ‘Lis­tened’ to the cues of the market
    • Switched gears and kept calm
  • Negative(s)
    • Did well today. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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