06082019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

06082019 Tues­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat 2 meals only
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • Still feel sick but bet­ter after I slept a lot and drink­ing a lot of water.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • We had a D TT and then instead of going into R we made a HL look­ing for sol­id sup­port to now poten­tial­ly cre­ate more upside
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 55.503
    • PVAH 55.292
    • PPOC 55.005
    • PVAL 54.698
    • Prev. Low 54.203
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • HTF went into Over­sold posi­tion and reject­ed once more (HHTF HL look­ing for sup­port) and have now trad­ed up over 50MA to poten­tial­ly PB and test 200MA, but we would have to look for more cues around UKC
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • Bif TTF R Over­sold into NT into D TT with poten­tial­ly break­ing down from 50MA but we are above 200MA so is the 50MA so let’s see where we can find sup­port on the TTF to con­firm or negate the mar­ket nar­ra­tive bias

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF R 50MABO+PB
  • Entry around 54.90
  • Tar­gets 55.40, extend­ed 55.80, 56.05
• Hypo 2 Rotational
  • 54.80 — 55.50
• Hypo 3 Short
  • HTF R UKCCAR
  • Entry around 55.40
  • Tar­gets 55.10, 54.90, extend­ed 54.60

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 15:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • Hypo 1 could be in play, wait­ing for con­fir­ma­tion on the PB to 50MA
    • TTF
      • Poten­tial­ly TTF R Over­sold to test 200MA in line with Hypo 1
      • TTF UKCCAS or TTF200MACAS
    • Bias
      • Long if Hypo1 is confirmed
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF R 50MABO+PB
        • Wait for con­fir­ma­tion on LTF in the form of an NT or TC
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • Pos­si­ble PB in process
    • TTF
      • Pos­si­ble TTF200MACAS in process. Stop below in case of failure
    • Bias
      • Long
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
      • HTF R50MABO+PB / TTF200MACAS
  • 16:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • PB still in effect but work­ing on con­fir­ma­tion on TTF
    • TTF
      • We had 1 TTF200MACAS and now a poten­tial dou­ble touch in process
    • Bias
      • Long
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
      • TTF R 50MABO as con­fir­ma­tion of HTF R 50MABO+PB
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • PB to 50MACAS is still in effect
    • TTF
      • No sign of 50MABO just yet per­haps some more down­side first. Stay­ing clear at the moment because of some AD going on around LKC
    • Bias
      • Long but lack clar­i­ty on a setup
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
  • 17:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • HTF R 50MABO+PB invalidated
    • TTF
      • Poten­tial TTF R Over­sold or TTF R 200MABD for short bias
    • Bias
      • TTF R Over­sold long TTF R 200MABD Short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Unclear at the moment. Per­haps a drop to HTF 1.0 SD to CAS or a move all the way down to HTFLKC if TTF R 200MABD is confirmed
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble HTF R 50MABD or this is used for AD to load up for a big move up, will need more con­fir­ma­tion first
    • TTF
      • TTF T above 200MA still in process no move has been made yet, AD still in process
    • Bias
      • Unclear
        • Long above 55 short below 54.65
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Still same as before, unclear
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • No real development
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • No real development
  • 19:35
    • HTF
      • No real development
  • 20:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • We trad­ed below HTF R 50MA and are now in the process of mak­ing a PB to CAR
    • TTF
      • TTF R 200MACAS with move up to UKC
    • Bias
      • Unclear
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Unclear 

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF R 50MABO+PB
  • Entry around 54.90
  • Tar­gets 55.40, extend­ed 55.80, 56.05
• Hypo 2 Rotational
  • 54.80 — 55.50
• Hypo 3 Short
  • HTF R UKCCAR
  • Entry around 55.40
  • Tar­gets 55.10, 54.90, extend­ed 54.60

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/6/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	98
Process Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS
	8	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	48	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
1/1	10	Setups tak­en
0/1	10	Erro­neous Entries
0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	50	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
• Review

Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
Ses­sion	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1	0	0	HTF R 50MA BO+PB (front)	5	S	Scratched when momen­tum died off	-	-
1	0	0	HTF R 50MA BO+PB	5	TP	Hit 1st Target	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 1 — 80%
    • Even though I trad­ed based on this nar­ra­tive there was no fol­low-through on the move and PA died off plus entry was 10 ticks low­er which is not too bad. Trade Idea was good based on the infor­ma­tion pre-market. 
  • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
    • I feel I was in sync with the mar­ket, too bad there weren’t more opportunities
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: I am still feel­ing sick but bet­ter than yesterday
  • E: Did well here
  • CS: Did well here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • Patience and humil­i­ty is inte­gral to improvement
• Positive(s)
  • Did well to focus on under­stand­ing mar­ket nar­ra­tive and look for cues to see it unfold with­out forc­ing my bias
• Negative(s)
  • Did well today. Enjoy it.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.