07082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

07 Aug 07082019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

07082019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat 2 meals only
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good. A lit­tle bit of a cold still but most­ly gone
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • We stayed below VWAP but it looks like there is some high­er lev­el AD going on since some of the moves don’t make much sense
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 55.295
    • PVAH 55.219
    • PPOC 54.953
    • PVAL 54.225
    • Prev. Low 53.249
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • PA in Over­sold ter­ri­to­ry but no con­fir­ma­tion of actu­al­ly being over­sold, still below VWAP as well with no hard rejec­tions of any lev­els, bias is to the short side unless we can BO from VWAP and move back into KC but until then the sen­ti­ment is TC based. 
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • TTF is near­ing 200MA how­ev­er still 30–40ticks off, poten­tial for near-touch and con­tin­u­a­tion of DT but uncer­tain at this point. Again no big rejec­tions of tech lev­els seen.

Trade Idea (lack of clarity)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF D TC @ VWAP
  • Entry around 53.45
  • Tar­gets 53.20, 53.05
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF D TT @ VWAP CAS
  • Entry around 53.70
  • Tar­gets 54.10, 54.60
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 53.20–53.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 15:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble D TT to 50MACAR for HHTF D TC
    • TTF
      • LTF is show­ing bounces that could set­up for a LTF200MABO with could set up a TTF200MACAR or TTF200MABOF
    • Bias
      • Long on the short term short on the longer term
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
      • HTF D TT in the form of a TTF U NT = long
      • HTF D TC @ 50MACAR = short
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble HTF D TT to 50MA
        • Look for con­fir­ma­tion as LKCCAS
    • TTF
      • Poten­tial TTF200MABO or CAR
    • Bias
      • Unclear at the moment. Wait for more con­fir­ma­tion on HTF D TT to go long
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
      • PB to HTF LKCCAS to con­firm D TT
  • 16:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF D TT in process of being con­firmed by LKCCAS
    • TTF
      • Poten­tial TTF R 200MABO set­ting up by AD above 50MA and under 200MA
    • Bias
      • Long 
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTF R 200MABO
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF D TT inval­i­dat­ed and bias has turned short
    • TTF
      • We dropped from TTF50MA to now LKC and look­ing to BD, if this is a D NT I will look for a D TC to get short
    • Bias
      • Short if we can break 2.0 SD on HTF oth­er­wise long bias accord­ing to pre­vi­ous trade idea
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTF D TC how­ev­er PA is still far away from VWAP and they would have to come near­er to each oth­er. Wait and see. 
  • 17:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • No LKCCAS instead what looked like a HL @ 2.0SD but am think­ing that there is more to this move then it leads on at this point since there is no con­vinc­ing evi­dence sug­gest­ing otherwise.
    • TTF
      • TTF R went to over­sold and back into KC
    • Bias
      • Short but need more confirmation
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTF R 50MACAR into a LKCBD
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Still same
    • TTF
      • TTF R still in effect with AD above LKC
    • Bias
      • Short below 53.25 but need more confirmation
      • Long if we can hold above 53.50
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTF R 50MACAR into a LKCBD = short
        • TTF200MABO = long
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Pos­si­ble sup­port @ 2.0 SD in line with HTF D TT
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD LKCCAS to poten­tial 50MABO
    • Bias
      • Long
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTF R 50MABO+PB
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Unclear as the mar­ket hasn’t real­ly made a move yet

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea (lack of clarity)

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF D TC
  • Entry around 53.45
  • Tar­gets 53.20, 53.05
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF D TT
  • Entry around 53.70
  • Tar­gets 54.10, 54.60
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 53.20–53.90

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/7/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	98
Process Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS
	8	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	48	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	10	Real-time analy­sis
1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
1/1	10	Setups tak­en
0/1	10	Erro­neous Entries
0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	50	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
  • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
• Review

Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Size	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1	1	0	HTF D TT @ LKCCAS	5	SO	Stopped Out	-	-
1	0	0	HTF D TT @ LKCCAS	5	TP	Hit Tar­get	-	-

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 2 — 80%
    • There was no fol­low-through to the move so left the nar­ra­tive for what it is and logged it’s characteristics
  • Real-time analy­sis — 100%
    • Did well here
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Feel­ing better
  • E: Did well here
  • CS: Did well here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • If there’s no fol­low through on the move and nar­ra­tive is unclear just stay out (which I did)
• Positive(s)
  • Stayed out when nar­ra­tive was unclear
• Negative(s)
  • After I ‘state’ that mar­ket nar­ra­tive is unclear I tend to be less focused and do oth­er things. I would like to stay ‘in-tune’ with the mar­ket even though this could also be a trap to trade when I shouldn’t. I will think about this some more. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.