08052019 — HTF200MACAR — TTF DT TC TT UT

09 May 08052019 — HTF200MACAR — TTF DT TC TT UT

08052019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

• Week­ly goal
  • Don’t eat rice, noo­dles etc.
• How do you feel?
  • I feel bet­ter than yes­ter­day but didn’t sleep well. I think it was because I ate very late last night and that spiked my blood sug­ar and I couldn’t sleep.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Lat­est Release    May 07, 2019
  • Actu­al            2.806M
  • Pre­vi­ous        6.810M
• EIA report
  • Lat­est Release May 01, 2019
  • Actu­al         9.900M
  • Fore­cast    1.485M
  • Pre­vi­ous    5.479M
  • Next Release May 8th
    • Fore­cast 1.215M
      • They adjust­ed their fore­cast to a high­er build

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High    62.548
      • PVAH    62.501
      • PPOC    62.297
      • PVAL    61.407
      • Low    60.699
    • Where is the LIS?
      • 61.65 area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • We didn’t break to new highs or new lows. HTF seems to be still balancing. 

• TTF
  • Dialling in on opportunities
    • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
      • We migrat­ed down but seems to have bot­tomed for now and dur­ing AS we crossed back over the TTF200MA
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • A mean rever­sion to TTF200MA
• LTF
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • We crossed back over the TTF200MA even though we BD from it yes­ter­day. This is the same area as the HTF200MA.

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF200MACAR and drop down
  • Entry around 61.75
  • Tar­gets 61.50, 61.25
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Drop to 61.50 area and set up HTF200MABO
  • Entry around 61.55
  • Tar­gets 62.20, .50, .90
• Hypo 3 Short
  • LISBD
  • Entry around 61.55
  • Tar­gets 61.10, 60.70

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • After Lon­don open we dropped to TTF200MA which is accord­ing to my HYPO1 (HTF200MACAR)
    • There seems to be some buy­ers com­ing in (TTF200MA/HTF50MA) and we might hold this area. I have tak­en a short accord­ing to my Trade Idea and A+ set­up (TTF TC)
  • 16:35
    • Price test­ing TTF200MA again after TTF50MAFBO pos­si­bly going to BD here. Look for re-entry short at PB to TTF VWAP or TTF200MA.
  • 17:05
    • Con­sol­i­da­tion at 61.50 area just above PVAL.Possible PVALBD. Tar­gets 61.25 and then 61.10.
  • 17:35
    • PVALBD
    • Sell­ers still very much in con­trol. Wait­ing for a PB to PVAL / TTF VWAP for re-entry short (TTF TC)
    • Near­ing HTF LKC so buy­ing pres­sure might come in around 61.10 area
  • 18:05
    • Some con­sol­i­da­tion with­in the TTF DT below PVAL pos­si­ble PB coming.
    • LTF still reject­ing LTF50MA for the moment.
    • Stalk­ing oppor­tu­ni­ty if LTF hits UKC and TTF hits VWAP at PVAL area.
  • 18:35
    • Got clos­er con­sol­i­dat­ing to TTF VWAP but not in a PB move so no con­fi­dence in entry
  • 19:05
    • Drop to TTF VWAP pos­si­ble PB to com­plete short term reversal
    • Sell­ers unable to push prices down
  • 19:35
    • Doji can­dle near TTF50MA inline with my short posi­tion but no drop as of yet. Buy­ers hold­ing this area 61.30 area it seems.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HTF200MACAR drop to HTF50MA
    • TTF
      • TTF50MABD drop to TTF200MA with PB to LKC is entry at 61.708
    • LTF
      • PB to LTF50MA near touch and went short
  • SL
    • Hard 61.875
    • Soft 61.815
  • TP
    • 61.55
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Got stopped out at 61.875
    • But re-entered with anoth­er short at 61.839, SL 61.953, TP 61.50
      • Cov­ered at 61.806 because I think we will BO from TTF50M and I can always re-enter on a PB if we don’t.
    • What les­son did I pay for?
      • When there is a TTF200MA near be extra cau­tious with entries. A bet­ter entry oppor­tu­ni­ty would be a PB to 50MA instead of a con­tin­u­a­tion entry at TTFLKC.

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • HYPO1
      • HTF50MABD after HTF200MACAR
    • TTF
      • TTF200MABD with PB to 1.0 SD entry small posi­tion (2) at 61.531 to add more lat­er but this gets me dip­ping my toe in
    • LTF
      • PB to LTF VWAP LKC
  • SL
    • Hard 61.753
  • TP
    • 61.15
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I am wait­ing for a PB to TTF200MACAR so that I can add more but since it might drop before that I took a small posi­tion of 2.
    • Cov­ered at 61.424 since it didn’t drop ‘fast enough’
    • What les­son did I pay for?
      • I am still too impa­tient with my win­ning posi­tions. I took a small posi­tion to dip my toe in. I should take my SL if it doesn’t pan out but not close it off because I am in the mon­ey a bit. 

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • HTF
      • Bot­tom of HTF R
    • TTF
      • TTF DT TC at PB to VWAP LKC entry at 61.294
    • LTF
      • First time hit­ting LTF UKC after drop
  • SL
    • Hard 61.696
    • Soft 61.50
  • TP
    • 60.860
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Price is slow­ly creep­ing up which leads me to believe that we might have a rever­sal here at this HTF R bot­tom area. Also still ways to go before we would hit TTF50MA and PVAL is in our way still so if we break that I will get out and reassess.
    • I feel fair­ly calm know­ing that I am only risk­ing less than 1% 
    • We dropped to TTF VWAP but buy­ers are com­ing in. If we move beyond the LTF Swing High just above the LTF UKC I will cov­er at a loss.
    • It hasn’t bro­ken TTF VWAP yet and might actu­al­ly CAS to con­tin­ue the short-term reversal
    • Moved SL down to LTF Swing High and back up above the PVAL. I feel that’s a bet­ter placement
    • Still in LTF R and have not made a move yet but sell­ers might be com­ing in here
    • Test­ing LTF200MA but have not cleared it yet. Doji near TTF50MA but no sig­nif­i­cant drop has fol­lowed it. Will prob­a­bly get stopped out. 
    • Move to TTF50MA sell­ers being absorbed it seems
    • Moved stop to 2% of account above the TTF200MA / HTF50MA still expect­ing to get stopped out
    • Got stopped out

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF200MACAR and drop down
  • Entry around 61.75
  • Tar­gets 61.50, 61.25
• Hypo 2 Long
  • Drop to 61.50 area and set up HTF200MABO
  • Entry around 61.55
  • Tar­gets 62.20, .50, .90
• Hypo 3 Short
  • LISBD
  • Entry around 61.55
  • Tar­gets 61.10, 60.70

Date:	5/8/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute Play­book setups
Com­bined Score	69
Process Report Card (10 each)	Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
9	Pre-mar­ket routines	9	Hypos
8	Ses­sion PECS	6	Real-time analy­sis
7	Trad­ing the process	5	Trade selec­tion
7	Dai­ly review	7	Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.
5	Progress toward Week­ly goal	6	Risk Adjust­ed Returns
36	Total	33

• Week­ly Goal
  • Per­form well by EXECUTING play­book setups and be hap­py by doing what I love and under­stand­ing that I give myself over to the ran­dom­ness of the market
• Review
  • I did OK tak­ing my setups. How­ev­er, I found myself adjust­ing my stops accord­ing to the posi­tion going against me (usu­al­ly have very tight stops) con­vinc­ing myself the trade idea was still valid since I have been stopped out many times before it did go my way. This time I adjust­ed my SL accord­ing to my Loss lim­it per trade to let the trade have a chance to devel­op. This was not a good idea. 
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • HYPO1 played out very accurately
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • I did fair­ly well here. I got worked up a few times but I remind­ed myself on the mar­ket context.
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I should take my stops. Maybe make it a chal­lenge to do so. 
• What’s one thing I need to do more often?
  • Take my setup.
• What’s one thing I need to do less often?
  • Adjust my stops. If you take your set­up than it should be a cal­cu­lat­ed risk that you’re tak­ing. So take it. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

QODE SEO

Trade Jour­nal on day trad­ing the WTI crude oil market

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