09072019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

09 Jul 09072019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

09072019 Tues­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Mon	Tue
-	8/7	9/7
Time bed yesterday	0:36	0:48
woke up	8:18	9:11
Hours sleep	7:42	8:23
Accord­ing to Fitbit	6:38	7:08
Awake	1:04	1:15
Times awake	39x	31x
REM	0:36	0:47
Light	4:49	4:51
Deep	1:13	1:30
Sleep well?	4	4
Sleep Aid?	no	no
Alco­hol yesterday?	0	3 beers
Wore Fit­bit?	yes	yes
Per­formed Dai­ly Tasks?	yes	yes
Per­formed Health Tasks?	no	no
Exer­cise yesterday?	no	no
Cof­fees yesterday	2	2
Inter­mit­tent fasting	no	no
Water L	2	2
Vit­a­mins	no	no
Cig­a­rettes	3	3

• Week­ly goal
  • Fol­low health plan
    • Failed yes­ter­day by sleep­ing too late and hav­ing 3 beers
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel that I slept long enough and good to go
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 4= half posi­tion 5= full position
  • 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Com­ing out today
• EIA report
  • Com­ing out tomorrow

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HTF
  • Define con­text
    • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
      • High 58.489
      • PVAH 57.906
      • PPOC 57.613
      • PVAL 57.435
      • Low 57.342
    • Where is the LIS?
      • PPOC Area
    • What didn’t happen?
      • No HTF50MABO in line with poten­tial HHTF roll over
    • Dialling in on opportunities
      • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
        • Bal­anc­ing on HHTF, HTF still above 200

• TTF
  • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
    • TTF200MACAR
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Small PA LTF R

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF50MACAR/TTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 57.55
  • Tar­gets 57.30, 57.15, extend­ed 57.05, 56.50
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 57.25
  • Tar­gets 57.60
• Hypo 3 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 57.70
  • Tar­gets 58.05, 58.20

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • PA a much faster than usual
    • Spread 48
  • 16:35
    • HTF AD going on below 50MA, mar­ket has made some fake moves, TTF R AD in process
  • 17:05
    • Shot to HTFUKC, PA still fast, 
  • 17:35
    • Momen­tum died off, return to TTF UKC pos­si­ble re-entry KC
  • 18:05
    • Con­tin­u­a­tion to the move bounce off TTF UKC as part of HHTF50MABO / HTFUKCBO attempt
  • 18:35
    • Run into resis­tance at HTFUKC, TTF retrace­ment cross down 1.0 SD momen­tum dying off
  • 19:05
    • Retrace­ment back to TTF UKC pos­si­ble influx of bulls com­ing but no signs of that yet

Trades tak­en

P/L ticks	Trade	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Siz­ing	Rea­son to cover	Prob­lem	Pro­posed solution
-13.5	1	0	0	TTF R LKC BD	1	SO	-	-
6.1	2	0	0	TTF R 50MACAR	1	scratched	-	-
-5.3	3	0	0	TTF R 50MACAR	2	scratched	-	-
5.4	4	0	0	TTF U TC @ UKC	4/5	TP	TP @ HTF UKC	-
1.9	1/5	scratched	no con­tin­u­a­tion to move after TP	-

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea

• Hypo 1 Short
  • HTF50MACAR/TTF200MACAR
  • Entry around 57.55
  • Tar­gets 57.30, 57.15, extend­ed 57.05, 56.50
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTFLKCCAS
  • Entry around 57.25
  • Tar­gets 57.60
• Hypo 3 Long
  • TTF200MABO
  • Entry around 57.70
  • Tar­gets 58.05

	Date:	7/9/2019	Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)
	Com­bined Score	96
	Process Report Card (10 each)		Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
	8	Ses­sion PECS	90%	9	Real-time analy­sis
	9	Hypos	1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
	10	Mar­ket Prep	1/1	10	Setups tak­en
	10	Dai­ly review	0/1	10	Erro­neous Entries
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal	0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	47	Total		49

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only focus on A/A+ setups and work on con­sis­ten­cy in tak­ing them. To have a bet­ter sam­ple size I will need to go through a few cycles before I can think of the next lev­el. Do this for the next month at least. It would be 3 months by then and I can ana­lyze my trad­ing and reassess if need be. 
• Review
  • In the begin­ning of the ses­sion I was slight­ly more short-biased but after see­ing the nar­ra­tive push­ing long I quick­ly changed gears. Did well here.
• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 3 — 90%
    • Did well here
  • Real-time analy­sis — 90%
    • Begin­ning of the ses­sion I was short-biased but quick­ly changed gears. Also, imple­ment­ed a time mark after which I am allowed to trade. Before this time I should have a real­ly good rea­son for putting on risk unless I have true clar­i­ty in narrative.
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did OK here. Last few days feel a bit under the weath­er it seems but not too bad
  • E: Did great here
  • CS: Even though feel­ing a bit less sharp today I did well here. Kept read­ing the nar­ra­tive and let it lead.
• Positive(s)
  • Learned more about mar­ket con­text and went with the flow of the market.
  • Switched gears when bias changed plus added size

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.