12032018 Weekly Big Picture

05 Dec 12032018 Weekly Big Picture

12032018 Week­ly Big Picture

This is part of my week­ly prepa­ra­tion of my trad­ing week to give me an idea on where I think the mar­ket stands. 

The Big Picture

• WTI

• What hap­pened last week?

• • • • When look­ing at the week­ly chart we can see that we closed last week with a Doji can­dle indi­cat­ing change on the horizon
      • Long bias

• What is the sup­ply and demand balance?

• • • • As of Novem­ber 28th the fore­cast was 0769M but the actu­al build was 3.577M and thus there is more sup­ply than demand
      • OPEC+ con­sid­er­ing pro­duc­tion restraints
      • Long bias

• What is the mar­ket sentiment?

• What does Retail Sen­ti­ment state?

• • • • Retail sen­ti­ment accord­ing to www.bluegoldresearch.com seems to be that more retail­ers are long on crude. Click the source link below to see a graph.

• What does investing.com state?

• • • • All sen­ti­ments is 58% bullish
      • Last week 60% bullish
      • Last 3 days 65% bullish
      • Long bias

• What was in the reports (API/EIA?

• • • • EIA fore­cast was  a build of 0.769M but we saw a build of 3.577M
      • Short bias

• What is the Tick Vol­ume showing?

• • • TV is show­ing a decrease which would mean more are in agree­ment about the direc­tion of the mar­ket or there are less par­tic­i­pants at the moment

• What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?

• How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?

• • • • • Last week the Dai­ly PP was about the same lev­el as that of the week­ly PP of 50.822 indi­cat­ing price lev­el­ing off and get­ting for anoth­er direc­tion­al move
        • We can also see that the Week­ly Piv­ot lev­els have nar­rowed and the Dai­ly Piv­ot lev­els have widened which would also be an indi­ca­tor of change com­ing into the market
        • We briefly jumped over the 52.543 high­er time frame S/R area but we might have trou­ble hold­ing it

• Is the mar­ket trend­ing up or down?

• • • • We are still in a down­trend how­ev­er for the first time since end Sep­tem­ber we have crossed the 50SMA on the 4H so that would sug­gest an uptrend on the short-term but we are still far under the 4H 200SMA so we are still in bear­ish ter­ri­to­ry on the medi­um term

• Is there an OPEC meeting?

• • • • There is a meet­ing sched­uled for tomor­row 12/5/2018 by OPEC+ and talks will most­ly cov­er the pos­si­ble restraint in pro­duc­tion by the cartel
      • But Saud­is sig­nal no cer­tain­ty in cuts

• Ener­gy sector

• How is the sec­tor as a whole doing?

• • • • Ener­gy sec­tors all across the world are in the neg­a­tive but Asia being in the last month less neg­a­tive as opposed to the last 3 months and Mid­dle East / Africa being way more in the negative.
      • US
        • 1 month
          • -4.77%
        • 3 months
          • -13.27%
        • YTD
          • -10.62%
      • The Amer­i­c­as
        • 1 month
          • -4.65%
        • 3 months
          • -12.25%
        • YTD
          • -11.40%
      • Europe
        • 1 month
          • -1.94%
        • 3 months
          • -5.48%
        • YTD
          • -1.20%
      • Asia
        • 1 month
          • -1.82%
        • 3 months
          • -7.49%
        • YTD
          • -4.67%
      • Mid­dle East / Africa
        • 1 month
          • -8.82%
        • 3 months
          • -3.90%
        • YTD
          • -5.03%

• EURUSD

• What is last week’s price range?

• • • • 1.14
      • 1.12

• What is the mar­ket sentiment?

• • • • Accord­ing to IG client sen­ti­ment 60% is net long the EURUSD which could mean a low­er USD and thus more inter­est in the oil mar­ket because of low­er USD prices
      • How­ev­er, IG takes a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment and thus the USD could be increas­ing in val­ue and make buy­ing oil in the world more expen­sive and thus puts buy­ing pres­sure on oil

• Gold

• What is last week’s price range?

• • • • 1229
      • 1211

• What is the mar­ket sentiment?

• • • • Accord­ing to investing.com
        • All sen­ti­ments 68% bullish
        • Last week 64% bullish
        • Last 3 days 63 % bullish

• Geopol­i­tics

• What are the main dri­vers in geopolitics?

• • • Rus­sia inves­ti­ga­tion still ongoing
    • NATO offi­cial­ly accus­es Rus­sia of vio­lat­ing nuclear deal
    • CIA still accus­es Sau­di Crown Prince behind the mur­der of Khashoggi
    • UK not with­draw­ing from ini­tia­tive for Brex­it end of March
    • World Bank: Rus­sia Can With­stand Oil Price Volatil­i­ty In 2019
      • Rus­sia is well-posi­tioned to with­stand exter­nal shocks, The World Bank said today in its most recent ver­sion of Rus­sia Eco­nom­ic Report, cit­ed by TASS.
    • Iran Claims It Can Gov­ern Coun­try With­out Rely­ing On Oil Revenue
      • A month after the U.S. sanc­tions on Iran’s oil snapped back, the Islam­ic Repub­lic con­tin­ues to claim with defi­ant tone that the Unit­ed States won’t be able to choke off all its oil exports and that the Iran­ian gov­ern­ment can man­age the coun­try even with­out rely­ing on oil export revenues.
    • Peru’s Largest Oil Field Stops Pro­duc­ing After Pipeline Attack
      • Cana­di­an Fron­tera Ener­gy said it had sus­pend­ed pro­duc­tion at the largest oil field in Peru after pro­test­ers against oil pro­duc­tion in the region sev­ered the pipeline that car­ries the crude from the field to a Petrope­ru oper­at­ed refinery.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

Sources:

• https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
• https://bluegoldresearch.com/retail-sentiment-crude-oil
• https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-scoreboard
• https://www.bloomberg.com/research/sectorandindustry/sectors/sectordetail.asp?region=US
• https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
• https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75
• https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
• https://www.bloomberg.com/energy