
05 Dec 12032018 Weekly Big Picture
12032018 Weekly Big Picture
This is part of my weekly preparation of my trading week to give me an idea on where I think the market stands.
The Big Picture
- WTI
- What happened last week?
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- When looking at the weekly chart we can see that we closed last week with a Doji candle indicating change on the horizon
- Long bias
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- What is the supply and demand balance?
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- As of November 28th the forecast was 0769M but the actual build was 3.577M and thus there is more supply than demand
- OPEC+ considering production restraints
- Long bias
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- What is the market sentiment?
- What does Retail Sentiment state?
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- Retail sentiment according to www.bluegoldresearch.com seems to be that more retailers are long on crude. Click the source link below to see a graph.
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- What does investing.com state?
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- All sentiments is 58% bullish
- Last week 60% bullish
- Last 3 days 65% bullish
- Long bias
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- What was in the reports (API/EIA?
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- EIA forecast was a build of 0.769M but we saw a build of 3.577M
- Short bias
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- What is the Tick Volume showing?
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- TV is showing a decrease which would mean more are in agreement about the direction of the market or there are less participants at the moment
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Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Week | Monday | Tuesday | |
11/27/2018 | 11/28/2018 | 11/29/2018 | 11/30/2018 | 11/26 — 11/30 | 12/03/2018 | 12/04/2018 | |
High | 52.352 | 52.525 | 52.165 | 51.765 | 52.525 | 53.83 | 54.537 |
Low | 50.275 | 50.04 | 49.385 | 49.625 | 49.385 | 50.555 | 52.405 |
Close | 52.08 | 50.27 | 51.235 | 50.555 | 50.555 | 53.06 | 52.57 |
Pip move | 207.7 | 248.5 | 278 | 214 | 314 | 327.5 | 213.2 |
PP | 51.569 | 50.945 | 50.928 | 50.648 | 50.822 | 52.482 | 53.171 |
R1 | 52.863 | 51.85 | 52.471 | 51.671 | 52.259 | 54.409 | 53.937 |
R2 | 53.646 | 53.43 | 53.708 | 52.788 | 53.962 | 55.757 | 55.303 |
S1 | 50.786 | 49.365 | 49.691 | 49.531 | 49.119 | 51.134 | 51.805 |
S2 | 49.492 | 48.46 | 48.148 | 48.508 | 47.682 | 49.207 | 51.039 |
TV | 156,460 | 200,483 | 168,514 | 174,565 | 1,008,709 | 211,252 | 141,633 |
- What are the most important technical levels in the market?
- How far is the market from important technical levels?
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- Last week the Daily PP was about the same level as that of the weekly PP of 50.822 indicating price leveling off and getting for another directional move
- We can also see that the Weekly Pivot levels have narrowed and the Daily Pivot levels have widened which would also be an indicator of change coming into the market
- We briefly jumped over the 52.543 higher time frame S/R area but we might have trouble holding it
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- Is the market trending up or down?
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- We are still in a downtrend however for the first time since end September we have crossed the 50SMA on the 4H so that would suggest an uptrend on the short-term but we are still far under the 4H 200SMA so we are still in bearish territory on the medium term
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- Is there an OPEC meeting?
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- There is a meeting scheduled for tomorrow 12/5/2018 by OPEC+ and talks will mostly cover the possible restraint in production by the cartel
- But Saudis signal no certainty in cuts
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- Energy sector
- How is the sector as a whole doing?
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- Energy sectors all across the world are in the negative but Asia being in the last month less negative as opposed to the last 3 months and Middle East / Africa being way more in the negative.
- US
- 1 month
- -4.77%
- 3 months
- -13.27%
- YTD
- -10.62%
- 1 month
- The Americas
- 1 month
- -4.65%
- 3 months
- -12.25%
- YTD
- -11.40%
- 1 month
- Europe
- 1 month
- -1.94%
- 3 months
- -5.48%
- YTD
- -1.20%
- 1 month
- Asia
- 1 month
- -1.82%
- 3 months
- -7.49%
- YTD
- -4.67%
- 1 month
- Middle East / Africa
- 1 month
- -8.82%
- 3 months
- -3.90%
- YTD
- -5.03%
- 1 month
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- EURUSD
- What is last week’s price range?
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- 1.14
- 1.12
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- What is the market sentiment?
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- According to IG client sentiment 60% is net long the EURUSD which could mean a lower USD and thus more interest in the oil market because of lower USD prices
- However, IG takes a contrarian view to crowd sentiment and thus the USD could be increasing in value and make buying oil in the world more expensive and thus puts buying pressure on oil
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- Gold
- What is last week’s price range?
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- 1229
- 1211
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- What is the market sentiment?
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- According to investing.com
- All sentiments 68% bullish
- Last week 64% bullish
- Last 3 days 63 % bullish
- According to investing.com
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- Geopolitics
- What are the main drivers in geopolitics?
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- Russia investigation still ongoing
- NATO officially accuses Russia of violating nuclear deal
- CIA still accuses Saudi Crown Prince behind the murder of Khashoggi
- UK not withdrawing from initiative for Brexit end of March
- World Bank: Russia Can Withstand Oil Price Volatility In 2019
- Russia is well-positioned to withstand external shocks, The World Bank said today in its most recent version of Russia Economic Report, cited by TASS.
- Iran Claims It Can Govern Country Without Relying On Oil Revenue
- A month after the U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil snapped back, the Islamic Republic continues to claim with defiant tone that the United States won’t be able to choke off all its oil exports and that the Iranian government can manage the country even without relying on oil export revenues.
- Peru’s Largest Oil Field Stops Producing After Pipeline Attack
- Canadian Frontera Energy said it had suspended production at the largest oil field in Peru after protesters against oil production in the region severed the pipeline that carries the crude from the field to a Petroperu operated refinery.
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Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
Sources:
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
- https://bluegoldresearch.com/retail-sentiment-crude-oil
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-scoreboard
- https://www.bloomberg.com/research/sectorandindustry/sectors/sectordetail.asp?region=US
- https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-scoreboard
- https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75
- https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
- https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
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