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12032018 Weekly Big Picture

12032018 Weekly Big Picture

12032018 Week­ly Big Picture

 

This is part of my week­ly prepa­ra­tion of my trad­ing week to give me an idea on where I think the mar­ket stands. 

 

The Big Picture

 

  • WTI
  • What hap­pened last week?

 

        • When look­ing at the week­ly chart we can see that we closed last week with a Doji can­dle indi­cat­ing change on the horizon
        • Long bias

 

  • What is the sup­ply and demand balance?

 

        • As of Novem­ber 28th the fore­cast was 0769M but the actu­al build was 3.577M and thus there is more sup­ply than demand
        • OPEC+ con­sid­er­ing pro­duc­tion restraints
        • Long bias

 

  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
  • What does Retail Sen­ti­ment state?

 

        • Retail sen­ti­ment accord­ing to www.bluegoldresearch.com seems to be that more retail­ers are long on crude. Click the source link below to see a graph.

 

  • What does investing.com state?

 

        • All sen­ti­ments is 58% bullish
        • Last week 60% bullish
        • Last 3 days 65% bullish
        • Long bias

 

  • What was in the reports (API/EIA?

 

        • EIA fore­cast was  a build of 0.769M but we saw a build of 3.577M
        • Short bias

 

  • What is the Tick Vol­ume showing?

 

      • TV is show­ing a decrease which would mean more are in agree­ment about the direc­tion of the mar­ket or there are less par­tic­i­pants at the moment

 

Tues­day Wednes­day Thurs­day Fri­day Week Mon­day Tues­day
11/27/2018 11/28/2018 11/29/2018 11/30/2018 11/26 — 11/30 12/03/2018 12/04/2018
High 52.352 52.525 52.165 51.765 52.525 53.83 54.537
Low 50.275 50.04 49.385 49.625 49.385 50.555 52.405
Close 52.08 50.27 51.235 50.555 50.555 53.06 52.57
Pip move 207.7 248.5 278 214 314 327.5 213.2
PP 51.569 50.945 50.928 50.648 50.822 52.482 53.171
R1 52.863 51.85 52.471 51.671 52.259 54.409 53.937
R2 53.646 53.43 53.708 52.788 53.962 55.757 55.303
S1 50.786 49.365 49.691 49.531 49.119 51.134 51.805
S2 49.492 48.46 48.148 48.508 47.682 49.207 51.039
TV 156,460 200,483 168,514 174,565 1,008,709 211,252 141,633

 

 

  • What are the most impor­tant tech­ni­cal lev­els in the market?
  • How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?

 

          • Last week the Dai­ly PP was about the same lev­el as that of the week­ly PP of 50.822 indi­cat­ing price lev­el­ing off and get­ting for anoth­er direc­tion­al move
          • We can also see that the Week­ly Piv­ot lev­els have nar­rowed and the Dai­ly Piv­ot lev­els have widened which would also be an indi­ca­tor of change com­ing into the market
          • We briefly jumped over the 52.543 high­er time frame S/R area but we might have trou­ble hold­ing it

 

  • Is the mar­ket trend­ing up or down?

 

        • We are still in a down­trend how­ev­er for the first time since end Sep­tem­ber we have crossed the 50SMA on the 4H so that would sug­gest an uptrend on the short-term but we are still far under the 4H 200SMA so we are still in bear­ish ter­ri­to­ry on the medi­um term

 

  • Is there an OPEC meeting?

 

        • There is a meet­ing sched­uled for tomor­row 12/5/2018 by OPEC+ and talks will most­ly cov­er the pos­si­ble restraint in pro­duc­tion by the cartel
        • But Saud­is sig­nal no cer­tain­ty in cuts

 

  • Ener­gy sector
  • How is the sec­tor as a whole doing?

 

        • Ener­gy sec­tors all across the world are in the neg­a­tive but Asia being in the last month less neg­a­tive as opposed to the last 3 months and Mid­dle East / Africa being way more in the negative.
        • US
          • 1 month
            • -4.77%
          • 3 months
            • -13.27%
          • YTD
            • -10.62%
        • The Amer­i­c­as
          • 1 month
            • -4.65%
          • 3 months
            • -12.25%
          • YTD
            • -11.40%
        • Europe
          • 1 month
            • -1.94%
          • 3 months
            • -5.48%
          • YTD
            • -1.20%
        • Asia
          • 1 month
            • -1.82%
          • 3 months
            • -7.49%
          • YTD
            • -4.67%
        • Mid­dle East / Africa
          • 1 month
            • -8.82%
          • 3 months
            • -3.90%
          • YTD
            • -5.03%

 

  • EURUSD
  • What is last week’s price range?

 

        • 1.14
        • 1.12

 

  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?

 

        • Accord­ing to IG client sen­ti­ment 60% is net long the EURUSD which could mean a low­er USD and thus more inter­est in the oil mar­ket because of low­er USD prices
        • How­ev­er, IG takes a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment and thus the USD could be increas­ing in val­ue and make buy­ing oil in the world more expen­sive and thus puts buy­ing pres­sure on oil

 

  • Gold
  • What is last week’s price range?

 

        • 1229
        • 1211

 

  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?

 

        • Accord­ing to investing.com
          • All sen­ti­ments 68% bullish
          • Last week 64% bullish
          • Last 3 days 63 % bullish

 

  • Geopol­i­tics
  • What are the main dri­vers in geopolitics?

 

      • Rus­sia inves­ti­ga­tion still ongoing
      • NATO offi­cial­ly accus­es Rus­sia of vio­lat­ing nuclear deal
      • CIA still accus­es Sau­di Crown Prince behind the mur­der of Khashoggi
      • UK not with­draw­ing from ini­tia­tive for Brex­it end of March
      • World Bank: Rus­sia Can With­stand Oil Price Volatil­i­ty In 2019
        • Rus­sia is well-posi­tioned to with­stand exter­nal shocks, The World Bank said today in its most recent ver­sion of Rus­sia Eco­nom­ic Report, cit­ed by TASS.
      • Iran Claims It Can Gov­ern Coun­try With­out Rely­ing On Oil Revenue
        • A month after the U.S. sanc­tions on Iran’s oil snapped back, the Islam­ic Repub­lic con­tin­ues to claim with defi­ant tone that the Unit­ed States won’t be able to choke off all its oil exports and that the Iran­ian gov­ern­ment can man­age the coun­try even with­out rely­ing on oil export revenues.
      • Peru’s Largest Oil Field Stops Pro­duc­ing After Pipeline Attack
        • Cana­di­an Fron­tera Ener­gy said it had sus­pend­ed pro­duc­tion at the largest oil field in Peru after pro­test­ers against oil pro­duc­tion in the region sev­ered the pipeline that car­ries the crude from the field to a Petrope­ru oper­at­ed refinery.

 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

 

Sources:

 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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