
05 Dec 12052018 Trade Plan and Journal
12052018 Trade Plan and Journal
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Friday | Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday |
11/30/2018 | 12/01/2018 | 12/02/2018 | 12/03/2018 | 12/04/2018 | 12/05/2018 | |
Beers night before | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hours sleep | 8 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
Sleep well? | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 espressos | 1 espresso |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | yes | no | no | yes | no | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 11:00 | 00:00 | 11:00 | 11:00 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I feel better but still not in a regular sleeping pattern. I feel that I should give myself more time to get into better habits.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 3
The Big Picture
- What happened yesterday?
- yesterday , on the 30M chart, we pulled back and dropped to the lower KC and today we continued that decline so we are in a medium term downtrend
- However we have also hit the WR1 as support and might be holding that level at 52.25
- We have the EIA report coming out later today so the market will be looking to that as an indicator of what the result of tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting might entail
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com
- All sentiments is 58% bullish
- Last week 60% bullish
- Last 3 days 65% bullish
- Long bias
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Released yesterday Dec. 4th a build of 5.360M
- EIA report
- EIA report will come out later today but the forecast is ‑0.942M
- What are the headlines of today?
- World Bank: Russia Can Withstand Oil Price Volatility In 2019
- Russia is well-positioned to withstand external shocks, The World Bank said today in its most recent version of Russia Economic Report, cited by TASS.
- Iran Claims It Can Govern Country Without Relying On Oil Revenue
- A month after the U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil snapped back, the Islamic Republic continues to claim with defiant tone that the United States won’t be able to choke off all its oil exports and that the Iranian government can manage the country even without relying on oil export revenues.
- Peru’s Largest Oil Field Stops Producing After Pipeline Attack
- Canadian Frontera Energy said it had suspended production at the largest oil field in Peru after protesters against oil production in the region severed the pipeline that carries the crude from the field to a Petroperu operated refinery.
- World Bank: Russia Can Withstand Oil Price Volatility In 2019
My trade plan and intraday TA
- Where are the pivot levels?
- We might have found support at the WR1 52.25 level
- We are very close to the WR1 level though and we will have to wait and see if we will confirm as support or not. THis level also coincides with the 30M 200SMA and 4H VWAP mean
- We might have found support at the WR1 52.25 level
- Where are longer term technical levels on the 4H and Daily time frame
- We have a big S/R area at this same level of 52.54 based on the weekly chart that we are now also testing as support
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- ATR is 2.4216 a seemingly very wide ATR and it has been increasing these last few weeks so this might also be an indicator that a change in sentiment might be upon us
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Reading the Tape
- What is printing?
- What support and resistance levels are printing on the 5M?
- During the Asian session we bounced off the 52.30 and now during London we re-tested this level and for now are looking to confirm that as support.
- What are the best areas for entry and exit?
- If we are starting an uptrend then I’ll be looking for PA to break the 52.60 level and pullback to confirm this level as the new support on the 5M/30M
- After the pullback I’ll be looking for my long entry
- If we are going to fail to break the 30M VWAP mean we can look for a short opportunity in the form of a reversal at 5M upper KC and VWAP 2.0 SD reversal
- T1,2,3, and 4
- We formed a bearish doji candle at the top and then pulled back a to the upper KC but we are now possible forming a very bearish candle so we might indeed be reversing at this level for the short term
- T5 and 6
- It looks like we did just reverse on the short term and then we shot up again
- We tested the 30M 2.0 SD level but the 4H shows that we still have some room to move up
- We already moved more than 80 pips during London so am wondering how much of the move we have left
- We moved further and are still above the 13MA on the 5M chart
- We finally broke the 13MA and then the consequent VWAP mean and by doing so have entered back into the KC but have hit the 5M 2.0 SD by doing so.
- I am done trading for today. I feel that I am not in-tune with the market
- What support and resistance levels are printing on the 5M?
Trade Management
- Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and thoughts during the trade
- T1,2,3, and 4
- I put on my first trade thinking that we were going to bounce off the 52.25 level and go back up (which we did) but I got in too early or my SL was too tight. Nonetheless I got stopped out and then took my second position moments later when we had another rejection of that level
- I took the long at 52.453 and covered at a profit 52.503
- I took a smaller position at the top of the move to get my feet in the water sort of speak. I had put my SL way far away but then when I saw it hitting a possible new high I put it closer.
- We now formed a long wick near-doji candle at the top of the range which could mean a possible reversal at this level 52.71
- I feel that I did well by putting on less risk
- We might be looking to BO at the top of the range breaking the upper KC and I will be looking for a place to add more to my position
- If we break the 5MA I’ll be looking for my exit but it looks like we are still holding
- We jumped over the top and I added a small position
- When we hit the first 30M SD I was on alert to get out and I closed off the first position at a profit to have pocketed something already and the second position is still open. But I am looking to close that off at a potential small loss.
- The 30M shows that we still have some headspace left for the price to rally to so I am letting it run and tailing it with my stop
- I panicked a little seeing that we had hit the 1.5 SD on the 30M so I thought I’d pocket some profits and reassess where to go next.
- This move started from the lower 30M 1.5 SD
- Since we made an somewhat bearish candle at the top of the move and since we are at the 1.5 and almost touched the 2.0 SD on the 30M I am not going to take a long position since there might not be enough headroom left for it to go. Although we might actually still be looking to go up more it’s just that I don’t feel that it is a high R/R opportunity so I am staying out.
- After I said that we shot up some more which is OK
- T5
- I took a swing reversal play down after we seemed to have rejected the 53 level
- Meaning a short and again i started off small to see if there is a spot where I can add to my position
- We dropped in my favor but are at the 13MA level which also coincides with the upper KC as potential support so not sure if we can break this
- Still 2 minutes left in the candle
- I think we might indeed be rejecting this level and potentially see some more upside before we try and break this level again since the rest looks very bearish still
- This swing reversal might be a move towards the 30M VWAP mean to confirm as support before we can complete the bull move up on the higher time frames
- Got stopped out but then quickly took another short because I still think we will go down.
- T6
- Swing reversal down
- I was in the money but we don’t seem to be able to break the 13MA level
- Also another point is that the KC is pointing upwards so we are in an uptrend os why am I taking a short position?
- As I am saying this we shot up and my stop got taken out
- T7
- Took a long after we broke the high on the 5M chart but feel we might be in overbought territory
- Price is holding at the 53.23 level but has not attempted to make a new high. Also the previous candle is definitely quite bearish so am thinking to get out myself although the 30M chart looks fairly bullish still
- We made a new high and I covered at a profit but I feel like I should have let it run since there is still more room above it so should have trailed with my stop
- T8
- Took a long at 53.300 at the 5M VWAP mean after we rejected it once
- Dropped almost to my SL at 53.226
- And now it’s looking to break the 5M VWAP mean and hitting my SL
- And it did
- I took a swing reversal play down after we seemed to have rejected the 53 level
- T1,2,3, and 4
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I should have recognized the uptrend faster but live and learn right?
- I did well in recognizing that we had a big support level on the higher time frames so that I wanted to take a long
- I did well to cut back on sizing after I got stopped out a few times
- I feel good about the way I am journaling now however I think I might still be overdoing the data on my charts
- What I will focus on for tomorrow is determining the trend and then only taking positions with the trend. How will I determine the trend? Well, if the Keltner channels are pointing upwards then it might be in an uptrend if and when PA on the 5M is consistent and not making crazy swings. We then would be ranging.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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