12052018 Trade Plan and Journal

05 Dec 12052018 Trade Plan and Journal

12052018 Trade Plan and Journal

Per­son­al Checklist

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health? 
  • I feel bet­ter but still not in a reg­u­lar sleep­ing pat­tern. I feel that I should give myself more time to get into bet­ter habits.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 3

The Big Picture

• What hap­pened yesterday? 
  • yes­ter­day , on the 30M chart, we pulled back and dropped to the low­er KC and today we con­tin­ued that decline so we are in a medi­um term downtrend
  • How­ev­er we have also hit the WR1 as sup­port and might be hold­ing that lev­el at 52.25
  • We have the EIA report com­ing out lat­er today so the mar­ket will be look­ing to that as an indi­ca­tor of what the result of tomorrow’s OPEC+ meet­ing might entail
• What is the mar­ket sentiment? 
  • What does the crowd think?
  • Accord­ing to investing.com
    • All sen­ti­ments is 58% bullish
    • Last week 60% bullish
    • Last 3 days 65% bullish
    • Long bias

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Released yes­ter­day Dec. 4th a build of 5.360M
• EIA report
  • EIA report will come out lat­er today but the fore­cast is ‑0.942M
• What are the head­lines of today? 
  • World Bank: Rus­sia Can With­stand Oil Price Volatil­i­ty In 2019 
    • Rus­sia is well-posi­tioned to with­stand exter­nal shocks, The World Bank said today in its most recent ver­sion of Rus­sia Eco­nom­ic Report, cit­ed by TASS.
  • Iran Claims It Can Gov­ern Coun­try With­out Rely­ing On Oil Revenue 
    • A month after the U.S. sanc­tions on Iran’s oil snapped back, the Islam­ic Repub­lic con­tin­ues to claim with defi­ant tone that the Unit­ed States won’t be able to choke off all its oil exports and that the Iran­ian gov­ern­ment can man­age the coun­try even with­out rely­ing on oil export revenues.
  • Peru’s Largest Oil Field Stops Pro­duc­ing After Pipeline Attack 
    • Cana­di­an Fron­tera Ener­gy said it had sus­pend­ed pro­duc­tion at the largest oil field in Peru after pro­test­ers against oil pro­duc­tion in the region sev­ered the pipeline that car­ries the crude from the field to a Petrope­ru oper­at­ed refinery.

My trade plan and intra­day TA

• Where are the piv­ot levels? 
  • We might have found sup­port at the WR1 52.25 level 
    • We are very close to the WR1 lev­el though and we will have to wait and see if we will con­firm as sup­port or not. THis lev­el also coin­cides with the 30M 200SMA and 4H VWAP mean
• Where are longer term tech­ni­cal lev­els on the 4H and Dai­ly time frame 
  • We have a big S/R area at this same lev­el of 52.54 based on the week­ly chart that we are now also test­ing as support
• ATR
  • What is the ATR on the daily? 
    • Is it increasing/decreasing?
      • ATR is 2.4216 a seem­ing­ly very wide ATR and it has been increas­ing these last few weeks so this might also be an indi­ca­tor that a change in sen­ti­ment might be upon us

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • What sup­port and resis­tance lev­els are print­ing on the 5M? 
    • Dur­ing the Asian ses­sion we bounced off the 52.30 and now dur­ing Lon­don we re-test­ed this lev­el and for now are look­ing to con­firm that as support.
  • What are the best areas for entry and exit? 
    • If we are start­ing an uptrend then I’ll be look­ing for PA to break the 52.60 lev­el and pull­back to con­firm this lev­el as the new sup­port on the 5M/30M
    • After the pull­back I’ll be look­ing for my long entry
    • If we are going to fail to break the 30M VWAP mean we can look for a short oppor­tu­ni­ty in the form of a rever­sal at 5M upper KC and VWAP 2.0 SD reversal
    • T1,2,3, and 4
    • We formed a bear­ish doji can­dle at the top and then pulled back a to the upper KC but we are now pos­si­ble form­ing a very bear­ish can­dle so we might indeed be revers­ing at this lev­el for the short term
    • T5 and 6
    • It looks like we did just reverse on the short term and then we shot up again
    • We test­ed the 30M 2.0 SD lev­el but the 4H shows that we still have some room to move up
    • We already moved more than 80 pips dur­ing Lon­don so am won­der­ing how much of the move we have left
    • We moved fur­ther and are still above the 13MA on the 5M chart
    • We final­ly broke the 13MA and then the con­se­quent VWAP mean and by doing so have entered back into the KC but have hit the 5M 2.0 SD by doing so.
    • I am done trad­ing for today. I feel that I am not in-tune with the market

Trade Man­age­ment

• Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and thoughts dur­ing the trade 
  • T1,2,3, and 4 
    • I put on my first trade think­ing that we were going to bounce off the 52.25 lev­el and go back up (which we did) but I got in too ear­ly or my SL was too tight. Nonethe­less I got stopped out and then took my sec­ond posi­tion moments lat­er when we had anoth­er rejec­tion of that level
    • I took the long at 52.453 and cov­ered at a prof­it 52.503
    • I took a small­er posi­tion at the top of the move to get my feet in the water sort of speak. I had put my SL way far away but then when I saw it hit­ting a pos­si­ble new high I put it closer.
    • We now formed a long wick near-doji can­dle at the top of the range which could mean a pos­si­ble rever­sal at this lev­el 52.71
    • I feel that I did well by putting on less risk
    • We might be look­ing to BO at the top of the range break­ing the upper KC and I will be look­ing for a place to add more to my position
    • If we break the 5MA I’ll be look­ing for my exit but it looks like we are still holding
    • We  jumped over the top and I added a small position
    • When we hit the first 30M SD I was on alert to get out and I closed off the first posi­tion at a prof­it to have pock­et­ed some­thing already and the sec­ond posi­tion is still open.  But I am look­ing to close that off at a poten­tial small loss.
    • The 30M shows that we still have some head­space left for the price to ral­ly to so I am let­ting it run and tail­ing it with my stop
    • I pan­icked a lit­tle see­ing that we had hit the 1.5 SD on the 30M so I thought I’d pock­et some prof­its and reassess where to go next.
    • This move start­ed from the low­er 30M 1.5 SD
    • Since we made an some­what bear­ish can­dle at the top of the move and since we are at the 1.5 and almost touched the 2.0 SD on the 30M I am not going to take a long posi­tion since there might not be enough head­room left for it to go. Although we might actu­al­ly still be look­ing to go up more it’s just that I don’t feel that it is a high R/R oppor­tu­ni­ty so I am stay­ing out.
    • After I said that we shot up some more which is OK
  • T5
    • I took a swing rever­sal play down after we seemed to have reject­ed the 53 level 
      • Mean­ing a short and again i start­ed off small to see if there is a spot where I can add to my position
      • We dropped in my favor but are at the 13MA lev­el which also coin­cides with the upper KC as poten­tial sup­port so not sure if we can break this 
        • Still 2 min­utes left in the candle
      • I think we might indeed be reject­ing this lev­el and poten­tial­ly see some more upside before we try and break this lev­el again since the rest looks very bear­ish still
      • This swing rever­sal might be a move towards the 30M VWAP mean to con­firm as sup­port before we can com­plete the bull move up on the high­er time frames
      • Got stopped out but then quick­ly took anoth­er short because I still think we will go down.
    • T6
      • Swing rever­sal down
      • I was in the mon­ey but we don’t seem to be able to break the 13MA level
      • Also anoth­er point is that the KC is point­ing upwards so we are in an uptrend os why am I tak­ing a short position?
      • As I am say­ing this we shot up and my stop got tak­en out
    • T7
      • Took a long after we broke the high on the 5M chart but feel we might be in over­bought territory
      • Price is hold­ing at the 53.23 lev­el but has not attempt­ed to make a new high. Also the pre­vi­ous can­dle is def­i­nite­ly quite bear­ish so am think­ing to get out myself although the 30M chart looks fair­ly bull­ish still
      • We made a new high and I cov­ered at a prof­it but I feel like I should have let it run since there is still more room above it so should have trailed with my stop
    • T8
      • Took a long at 53.300 at the 5M VWAP mean after we reject­ed it once
      • Dropped almost to my SL at 53.226
      • And now it’s look­ing to break the 5M VWAP mean and hit­ting my SL
      • And it did

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why? 
  • I should have rec­og­nized the uptrend faster but live and learn right?
  • I did well in rec­og­niz­ing that we had a big sup­port lev­el on the high­er time frames so that I want­ed to take a long
  • I did well to cut back on siz­ing after I got stopped out a few times
  • I feel good about the way I am jour­nal­ing now how­ev­er I think I might still be over­do­ing the data on my charts
  • What I will focus on for tomor­row is deter­min­ing the trend and then only tak­ing posi­tions with the trend. How will I deter­mine the trend? Well, if the Kelt­ner chan­nels are point­ing upwards then it might be in an uptrend if and when PA on the 5M is con­sis­tent and not mak­ing crazy swings. We then would be ranging.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.