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12062018 Trade Plan — Big Drop During London, OPEC+ meeting 1mbd production cut - Bear Market Trader
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12062018 Trade Plan — Big Drop During London, OPEC+ meeting 1mbd production cut

Daily Report Card

12062018 Trade Plan — Big Drop During London, OPEC+ meeting 1mbd production cut

12062018 Trade Plan — Big Drop Dur­ing Lon­don, OPEC+ meet­ing 1mbd pro­duc­tion cut

 

Per­son­al made up terminology

  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low

 

Per­son­al Checklist

 

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative Sat­ur­day Sun­day Mon­day Tues­day Wednes­day Thurs­day
12/01/2018 12/02/2018 12/03/2018 12/04/2018 12/05/2018 12/05/2018
Beers night before 4 12 0 0 0 1 fin­ger whiskey
Hours sleep 8 5 7 8 8 8
Sleep well? 3 1 2 3 2 3
Mela­tonin 0 0 0 0.5 0 0
Neg­a­tive thoughts? 1 1 2 2 2 2
Exer­cise yester(to)day 1 1 1 1 1 1
Grat­i­tude 5 5 5 4 4 5
Joy 5 5 5 4 4 5
Anger 1 1 1 1 1 2
Fear 1 1 1 1 1 2
Focus 2 2 2 3 3 3
Cof­fees today 1 1 1 2 espres­sos 1 espres­so 1 espres­so spread over 2 hours
Water 2.2L bottles 2 1 2 2 2 2
Vit­a­mins no no yes no yes yes
Time bed yesterday 00:00 11:00 11:00 11:00

 

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health? 
    • My sleep­ing is get­ting bet­ter. Also I turned off all devices last night and con­tin­ued read­ing the Play­Book before going to bed. I did sip a lit­tle bit of whiskey while read­ing. Over­all I think that I am feel­ing bet­ter now that I have start­ed fast­ing inter­mit­tent­ly as well.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 4

 

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday? 
    • Yes­ter­day we seem to have reject­ed the Dai­ly VWAP mean that coin­cides with the high­er time frame S/R area at 53.75 lev­el and it’s pos­si­ble we might have more sell­ing pres­sure com­ing in today.
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment? 
    • What does the crowd think? 
      • Accord­ing to investing.com yesterday 
        • All sen­ti­ments is 58% bullish
        • Last week 60% bullish
        • Last 3 days 65% bullish
      • Accord­ing to investing.com today 
        • All sen­ti­ments is 57% bullish
        • Last week 60% bullish
        • Last 3 days 61% bullish
      • So we see a 4% decline in the last 3 days on the bull­ish sentiment
  • EURUSD
    • The dai­ly chart shows there might be some more sell­ing pres­sure on the pair and thus an increase in the USD val­ue which makes it cheap­er to buy crude and thus can put some buy­ing pres­sure on the mar­ket. How­ev­er we haven’t bro­ken the 1.13 lev­el yet but we did break 1.14.
    • Next sup­port is 1.12
    • Accord­ing to investing.com 60% is still net long on the pair

 

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Pre­vi­ous 3.453M
    • Actu­al 5.360M
    • So there was more of a build than pre­vi­ous­ly expected
  • EIA report
    • Pre­vi­ous 4.851M
    • Fore­cast 0.769
    • Actu­al 3.577M
    • So we have way more build than was fore­cast so expect more sell­ing pres­sure to come in
  • What are the head­lines of today? 
    • Oil Prices Sink On Sur­prise Inven­to­ry Build
    • Chi­na says it will resume buy­ing US crude oil after Trade War Truce because the because the ten­ta­tive halt on addi­tion­al tar­iffs and low­er oil prices are mak­ing Amer­i­can oil attrac­tive again
    • OPEC is try­ing to per­suade Libya and Nige­ria to join cuts if the car­tel agrees to reduce pro­duc­tion while OPEC+ is still dis­cussing how much to cut and how to share these cuts out 
      • Nige­ria was exempt from cuts in Nov. 2016 because of dis­rupt­ed pro­duc­tion through violence
      • Nige­ria and Libya seem reluc­tant to cut because of frag­ile secu­ri­ty situation
    • OPEC’s crude pro­duc­tion increased 40.000bpd from Octo­ber to 33.08M bpd in Novem­ber try­ing to off­set the Iran drop off
    • Sau­di Arabia’s Ener­gy Min­is­ter met with US spe­cial rep­re­sen­ta­tive for Iran on Wednes­day to dis­cuss new pro­duc­tion cuts to rebal­ance the market
    • OPEC meet­ing lat­er on today
  • After Bush’s funer­al yes­ter­day there should be more liq­uid­i­ty com­ing into the market
  • How is the Geopo­lit­i­cal sta­bil­i­ty in the world? 
    • Huawei CFO arrest­ed in Cana­da on request from US might put trade talks in jeopardy
    • Gold rose 0.2% to 1239.77 an ounce
    • Yemen and rebels are star­ing truce talk today
    • Rus­sia: US doesn’t have any proof for vio­lat­ing nuclear treaty

 

My trade plan and intra­day TA

 

Wednes­day Thurs­day Fri­day Week Mon­day Tues­day Wednes­day
11/28/2018 11/29/2018 11/30/2018 11/26 — 11/30 12/03/2018 12/04/2018 12/05/2018
High 52.525 52.165 51.765 52.525 53.83 54.537 54.42
Low 50.04 49.385 49.625 49.385 50.555 52.405 52.125
Close 50.27 51.235 50.555 50.555 53.06 52.57 52.91
Pip move 248.5 278 214 314 327.5 213.2 229.5
PP 50.945 50.928 50.648 50.822 52.482 53.171 53.152
R1 51.85 52.471 51.671 52.259 54.409 53.937 54.179
R2 53.43 53.708 52.788 53.962 55.757 55.303 55.447
S1 49.365 49.691 49.531 49.119 51.134 51.805 51.884
S2 48.46 48.148 48.508 47.682 49.207 51.039 50.857
TV 200,483 168,514 174,565 1,008,709 211,252 141,633 102,902

 

  • What can we tell from the PP levels? 
    • DPP went down 2 points and we can see an increase in DR1 lev­el 54.179 as opposed to yes­ter­day but DR2 is still hold­ing about the same lev­el at 55.447
    • On the sup­port side we have DS1 with sim­i­lar lev­el at 51.884 and DS2 inch­ing a lit­tle low­er at 50.857
  • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels? 
    • We have resis­tance at 53.75
    • Sup­port at 52.55 is a cru­cial lev­el and if we break that the next big sup­port is at 50.50 so we have a 2 dol­lar poten­tial drop which could be in line with the big­ger Dai­ly down­trend pattern 
      • Usu­al­ly a big drop comes before we reverse and go back up
  • What does the 4H and 30M chart show? 
    • On the 4H we can see that PA stayed rang­ing between 52.55 and 53.75 and we can see that we are at the sup­port lev­el so there might be buy­ing pres­sure com­ing in at 52.55 level
    • On the 30M we can see that yes­ter­day we tried to break that 53.75 lev­el and actu­al­ly went over it and dropped hard till under that lev­el and the lat­er on con­firmed 53.75 as resistance
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed? 
    • Dur­ing the Asian Ses­sion on the 30M we can see that price tried reject­ing the 52.55 lev­el but we are still not in the clear yet since we haven’t real­ly pushed away from this lev­el yet
    • On the 5M chart we can have a bet­ter look at the rejec­tion from the 30m chart by a big drop down to 52.25 lev­el and then retraced back 50% before rang­ing in a tight range from there on. The retrace­ment had almost the dou­ble of tick vol­ume than the drop one can­dle before. Anoth­er rea­son for me not hav­ing more of a bias that we will BD or not. We will have to see what hap­pens when liq­uid­i­ty from Lon­don comes in.
  • ATR
    • What is the ATR on the daily? 
      • Is it increasing/decreasing?
        • We are still increas­ing in ATR and have about 2.4605

 

Trade Plan

  • Wait for signs on the 5M/30M of a poten­tial break of the 52.55 lev­el for a good down­trend with pos­si­ble drop till 50.50 level 
    • Look for BD from this level
  • Wait for a sign on the 5M/30M of a poten­tial BO from the 53.75 lev­el or that would be a good short entry after rejec­tion on that level
  • We might be stuck rang­ing between 52.55 and 53.75
    • Trade the swing rever­sals on the lows and highs

 

Read­ing the Tape

    • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV. 
      • Dur­ing the Asian Ses­sion we had the sec­ond rejec­tion of the 52.25 lev­el at 8:35am (14:35) on slight­ly high­er TV
      • Then we start­ed our incline (on increas­ing TV) slow­ly test­ing 52.50 again and then shot up till 53.50 before 10–15 min­utes before Lon­don open we got smacked down again by the bears and we are test­ing 52.50 lev­el again which is also the 30M 200MA 
        • Let’s see if we will CAS or actu­al­ly BD
      • 10:25 we dropped down to 52.55 lev­el and are look­ing to poten­tial­ly BD 
        • TV is not nec­es­sar­i­ly high­er at this lev­el so we might see a con­tin­u­a­tion of  this drop in line with a BD
      • 16:40 we formed a ham­mer at the 52.55 range so it will be inter­est­ing to see if we are revers­ing at this level 
        • Oth­er fac­tors are that we had hit the low­er 1.5 SD of the 5M VWAP and almost got close to hit LKC
        • The 30M shows us no direct rever­sal sign yet
      • We are still around the 52.55 lev­el and under the 30M 200MA so I believe that I should focus more on the short side, although the KC looks like it might turn upwards 
        • I’d need to wait and see if we actu­al­ly reject­ed the 52.55 lev­el here and are going to start an uptrend. How­ev­er unlike­ly since we just had a quick move up that got smacked down by bears. But you nev­er know. Trade what you see not your predictions!
      • This 52.55 lev­el might just be where all the bulls come to find their bears to devour
      • And we are test­ing the 52.25 now and as I write this we spiked down till 52 in a mil­lisec­ond so let’s see if this 52 lev­el can hold and if the bulls are sim­ply load­ing up at this lev­el or we actu­al­ly are going to BD 
        • Nonethe­less, if there is a BD I am going to wait for the pull­back to 5/8MA before going short
      • 11:05 (17:05) we dropped to 52 lev­el on high TV of about 600+ and then dropped a bit more the next can­dle with even more TV so we might be look­ing to slow down
      • This is also the 4H 50MA lev­el that we are test­ing as sup­port now. Will it break?
      • I  was think­ing that since we returned to 5M VWAP mean we might con­tin­ue the down­trend and then we shot down now at 11:45 can­dle (17:45) but are pos­si­ble being pushed back by the bulls
      • I believe the mar­ket is still try­ing to decide where to go and extra cau­tion should be exercised
      • Good thing I didn’t act on the assump­tion since we shot down. I was think­ing to short but hesitated
      • It looks like we have the BD by con­firm­ing 52.55 as resistance
      • I will look for pull­backs to trade off of or have we dropped far enough?
      • The tape reads a bit faster than usu­al so not com­fort­able with this yet but I’ll see and be extra cau­tious in tak­ing anoth­er trade
      • Next sup­port area would be the 49.50 dol­lar mark. HIs­tor­i­cal­ly we bounced off this lev­el as we did last week
      • We are hav­ing high­er TV around this lev­el of 51.30 and PA looks to being pushed back but we are still in short territory
      • We can see that every swing in the down­trend has been get­ting big­ger which could indi­cate a shift in direc­tion on the hori­zon and I should be extra care­ful to short since the short term down­trend might be over
      • 12:30 (18:30) we are now test­ing 50.50 lev­el and are look­ing to break WPP at 50.822 as well
      • High TV of about 1300 at 50.50 lev­el but we need to push back fur­ther and hold on for about 17 more min­utes before I can think of tak­ing a long since we are still very much falling and I should be look­ing for a short entry
      • We are 100 ticks away from last week’s low of 49.50 so if we are going to reverse into a medi­um term uptrend this would be a good point to cre­ate a HL on the high­er time frames

 

  • 13pm (19:00) NEWS FLASH
  • Saud­is Back Mod­est OPEC+ Out­put Cut, Don’t Want to Shock Market

 

        • Al-Fal­ih says a cut of about 1 mil­lion bar­rels a day adequate
        • Cru­cial details remain unre­solved as min­is­ters meet in Vienna 
          • No specifics on shar­ing of the cuts
    • We are look­ing at a pos­si­ble bot­tom here on the 5M chart as PA is cross­ing the 13MA 
      • I resist­ed the urge to take a long posi­tion since the trend is still very much down
    • When we pull­back to the 5M VWAP mean I’d be look­ing for a rever­sal candle 
      • But we broke it
    • We are enter­ing the KC again and I’d be more com­fort­able tak­ing a long posi­tion after we pull­back to 51.30 lev­el and CAS first
    • We didn’t pull­back perse but we did move high­er to what now looks like a V‑shaped pat­tern on the 30M. I’ve seen this pat­tern many times before using the VWAP and MAs and it’s inter­est­ing to see how the pat­tern devel­ops in rela­tion to these 
      • I’ll include this in my Playbook
    • NY is open­ing in 20 min­utes so I won’t be trad­ing then since I only trade the Lon­don ses­sion for now
    • Right before NY opened we had a drop to the LKC on the 5M and we might be look­ing to test that 51 lev­el again
    • NY opened so that’s it for me today

 

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Only take 4 trades
  • Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze)
  • Only trade what you see

 

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

 

  • T1
  • Why? What do I see?

 

        • Swing Rever­sal with Continuation
        • We had reject­ed the 53.55 lev­el and quick­ly reversed
        • Then PA broke UKC and CAR with a longer upper wick can­dle so I short­ed with a small posi­tion at 52.672

 

  • SL

 

        • SL I put over the 13MA to be safe at 52.837 but if it had jumped back up on the sec­ond can­dle I’d tak­en myself out earlier

 

  • TP

 

        • 52.331 under the body of the clus­ter of can­dles on the 30M

 

  • Trade Man­age­ment

 

      • I felt con­fi­dent going into the trade and when we had hit 52.55 lev­el I was look­ing for a way out and I man­u­al­ly cov­ered at 52.564
        • I thought 52.55 could have been a tough lev­el of sup­port for the mar­ket to crack so I covered
      • Why didn’t I allow my TP to get hit? Because I am learn­ing this par­tic­u­lar trade a bit bet­ter and try­ing to get more con­fi­dent in it. I haven’t back­test­ed this set­up a lot yet.

 

 

  • T2
  • Why? What do I see?

 

        • Swing Rever­sal with Continuation 
          • I saw that we pushed back hard on the 30M chart reject­ing the 52 lev­el for now with a pos­si­ble move to CAR 52.55
          • Also we had moved under the LKC and hit the low­er 2.0 SD of the 5M VWAP and thus a pos­si­ble rever­sal would be possible
          • So I took a small long posi­tion at 52.362

 

  • SL

 

        • Below pre­vi­ous can­dle at 52.167

 

  • TP

 

        • 52.515 but cov­ered man­u­al­ly at 52.445

 

  • Trade Man­age­ment

 

      • I think I did good to trade small­er today and build my con­fi­dence first
      • What I did not do good is that this was the pull­back to 52.55 lev­el to CAR and thus I should have just looked for short oppor­tu­ni­ties and not have gone long. Stunts like this will cost me a lot on the long run.

 

 

  • T3
  • NOT TAKEN

 

 

 

  • T4
  • NOT TAKEN

 

 

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why? 
    • I cov­ered quick­ly on both trades because of hit­ting a cru­cial lev­el so that then begs the ques­tion if my TP lev­el was actu­al­ly war­rant­ed in the first place and why did I not set it at that lev­el that I myself cov­ered at? Well, I think the rea­son is that 1) I’m still try­ing to get more con­fi­dent in trad­ing this way and the setups, 2) at this point I am hap­py with tak­ing some prof­its since my goal at the moment is to just take one good trade at a time and let­ting my TP rules play out is a goal for anoth­er time in my opinion.
    • I showed good restraint in not over-trad­ing and believe me I want­ed to take sev­er­al more trades but I think this only tak­ing 4 trades rule might be a good one to stick with for a while. It makes me more crit­i­cal about what trade to take.
    • I did have the thought that if this restraint was actu­al­ly a restraint or that it also had some­thing to do with fear of try­ing. When I am not in a posi­tion I can’t lose mon­ey right?! But I think that even though it might have played a tiny role in the back of my mind it was more try­ing to take one good trade at a time.
    • Things I could have done bet­ter are: 
      • Get­ting into my posi­tions earlier 
        • But like I said I am try­ing to get more con­fi­dent first and are look­ing for more con­fir­ma­tion before I enter a trade
      • Since we had estab­lished a down­trend on the 5M I should have been more alert to pos­si­ble short­ing opportunities 
        • There was a good one at right after I closed my long posi­tion (which I should not have tak­en) and because of that I don’t think I was focused on that short opportunity
        • So les­son here is deter­mine the trend and then only look for oppor­tu­ni­ties fol­low­ing that trend. If I had that would have been a nice 110 pip drop 
          • Live and learn my friend
    • Anoth­er good thing I did was tak­ing small­er posi­tions than what I nor­mal­ly do

 

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Only take 4 trades 
    • I only took 2 trades today and I am hap­py with that. Both of them turned a profit. 
      • One 11 pips and the oth­er 8 pips
  • Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze) 
    • I did only take my setups and I will back­test these setups more to get more con­fi­dent in them. Also, I am going to imple­ment a lev­el­ing sys­tem to give me the right to trade bigger.
    • I want to have 5 con­sec­u­tive up days before I trade bigger
  • Only trade what you see 
    • I think I did well in this depart­ment. I do got­ta say though that I saw the trend chang­ing and going back up but since we were still in short ter­ri­to­ry I didn’t take those trades. I will go back and review what I did and how I could have done it better.

 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.

 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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