
06 Dec 12062018 Trade Plan — Big Drop During London, OPEC+ meeting 1mbd production cut
12062018 Trade Plan — Big Drop During London, OPEC+ meeting 1mbd production cut
Personal made up terminology
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday |
12/01/2018 | 12/02/2018 | 12/03/2018 | 12/04/2018 | 12/05/2018 | 12/05/2018 | |
Beers night before | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 finger whiskey |
Hours sleep | 8 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Sleep well? | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Focus | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Coffees today | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 espressos | 1 espresso | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours |
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | no | no | yes | no | yes | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 00:00 | 11:00 | 11:00 | 11:00 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- My sleeping is getting better. Also I turned off all devices last night and continued reading the PlayBook before going to bed. I did sip a little bit of whiskey while reading. Overall I think that I am feeling better now that I have started fasting intermittently as well.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 4
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- Yesterday we seem to have rejected the Daily VWAP mean that coincides with the higher time frame S/R area at 53.75 level and it’s possible we might have more selling pressure coming in today.
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com yesterday
- All sentiments is 58% bullish
- Last week 60% bullish
- Last 3 days 65% bullish
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 57% bullish
- Last week 60% bullish
- Last 3 days 61% bullish
- So we see a 4% decline in the last 3 days on the bullish sentiment
- According to investing.com yesterday
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- The daily chart shows there might be some more selling pressure on the pair and thus an increase in the USD value which makes it cheaper to buy crude and thus can put some buying pressure on the market. However we haven’t broken the 1.13 level yet but we did break 1.14.
- Next support is 1.12
- According to investing.com 60% is still net long on the pair
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Previous 3.453M
- Actual 5.360M
- So there was more of a build than previously expected
- EIA report
- Previous 4.851M
- Forecast 0.769
- Actual 3.577M
- So we have way more build than was forecast so expect more selling pressure to come in
- What are the headlines of today?
- Oil Prices Sink On Surprise Inventory Build
- China says it will resume buying US crude oil after Trade War Truce because the because the tentative halt on additional tariffs and lower oil prices are making American oil attractive again
- OPEC is trying to persuade Libya and Nigeria to join cuts if the cartel agrees to reduce production while OPEC+ is still discussing how much to cut and how to share these cuts out
- Nigeria was exempt from cuts in Nov. 2016 because of disrupted production through violence
- Nigeria and Libya seem reluctant to cut because of fragile security situation
- OPEC’s crude production increased 40.000bpd from October to 33.08M bpd in November trying to offset the Iran drop off
- Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister met with US special representative for Iran on Wednesday to discuss new production cuts to rebalance the market
- OPEC meeting later on today
- After Bush’s funeral yesterday there should be more liquidity coming into the market
- How is the Geopolitical stability in the world?
- Huawei CFO arrested in Canada on request from US might put trade talks in jeopardy
- Gold rose 0.2% to 1239.77 an ounce
- Yemen and rebels are staring truce talk today
- Russia: US doesn’t have any proof for violating nuclear treaty
My trade plan and intraday TA
Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Week | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | |
11/28/2018 | 11/29/2018 | 11/30/2018 | 11/26 — 11/30 | 12/03/2018 | 12/04/2018 | 12/05/2018 | |
High | 52.525 | 52.165 | 51.765 | 52.525 | 53.83 | 54.537 | 54.42 |
Low | 50.04 | 49.385 | 49.625 | 49.385 | 50.555 | 52.405 | 52.125 |
Close | 50.27 | 51.235 | 50.555 | 50.555 | 53.06 | 52.57 | 52.91 |
Pip move | 248.5 | 278 | 214 | 314 | 327.5 | 213.2 | 229.5 |
PP | 50.945 | 50.928 | 50.648 | 50.822 | 52.482 | 53.171 | 53.152 |
R1 | 51.85 | 52.471 | 51.671 | 52.259 | 54.409 | 53.937 | 54.179 |
R2 | 53.43 | 53.708 | 52.788 | 53.962 | 55.757 | 55.303 | 55.447 |
S1 | 49.365 | 49.691 | 49.531 | 49.119 | 51.134 | 51.805 | 51.884 |
S2 | 48.46 | 48.148 | 48.508 | 47.682 | 49.207 | 51.039 | 50.857 |
TV | 200,483 | 168,514 | 174,565 | 1,008,709 | 211,252 | 141,633 | 102,902 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- DPP went down 2 points and we can see an increase in DR1 level 54.179 as opposed to yesterday but DR2 is still holding about the same level at 55.447
- On the support side we have DS1 with similar level at 51.884 and DS2 inching a little lower at 50.857
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- We have resistance at 53.75
- Support at 52.55 is a crucial level and if we break that the next big support is at 50.50 so we have a 2 dollar potential drop which could be in line with the bigger Daily downtrend pattern
- Usually a big drop comes before we reverse and go back up
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- On the 4H we can see that PA stayed ranging between 52.55 and 53.75 and we can see that we are at the support level so there might be buying pressure coming in at 52.55 level
- On the 30M we can see that yesterday we tried to break that 53.75 level and actually went over it and dropped hard till under that level and the later on confirmed 53.75 as resistance
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- During the Asian Session on the 30M we can see that price tried rejecting the 52.55 level but we are still not in the clear yet since we haven’t really pushed away from this level yet
- On the 5M chart we can have a better look at the rejection from the 30m chart by a big drop down to 52.25 level and then retraced back 50% before ranging in a tight range from there on. The retracement had almost the double of tick volume than the drop one candle before. Another reason for me not having more of a bias that we will BD or not. We will have to see what happens when liquidity from London comes in.
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- We are still increasing in ATR and have about 2.4605
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- Wait for signs on the 5M/30M of a potential break of the 52.55 level for a good downtrend with possible drop till 50.50 level
- Look for BD from this level
- Wait for a sign on the 5M/30M of a potential BO from the 53.75 level or that would be a good short entry after rejection on that level
- We might be stuck ranging between 52.55 and 53.75
- Trade the swing reversals on the lows and highs
Reading the Tape
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- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV.
- During the Asian Session we had the second rejection of the 52.25 level at 8:35am (14:35) on slightly higher TV
- Then we started our incline (on increasing TV) slowly testing 52.50 again and then shot up till 53.50 before 10–15 minutes before London open we got smacked down again by the bears and we are testing 52.50 level again which is also the 30M 200MA
- Let’s see if we will CAS or actually BD
- 10:25 we dropped down to 52.55 level and are looking to potentially BD
- TV is not necessarily higher at this level so we might see a continuation of this drop in line with a BD
- 16:40 we formed a hammer at the 52.55 range so it will be interesting to see if we are reversing at this level
- Other factors are that we had hit the lower 1.5 SD of the 5M VWAP and almost got close to hit LKC
- The 30M shows us no direct reversal sign yet
- We are still around the 52.55 level and under the 30M 200MA so I believe that I should focus more on the short side, although the KC looks like it might turn upwards
- I’d need to wait and see if we actually rejected the 52.55 level here and are going to start an uptrend. However unlikely since we just had a quick move up that got smacked down by bears. But you never know. Trade what you see not your predictions!
- This 52.55 level might just be where all the bulls come to find their bears to devour
- And we are testing the 52.25 now and as I write this we spiked down till 52 in a millisecond so let’s see if this 52 level can hold and if the bulls are simply loading up at this level or we actually are going to BD
- Nonetheless, if there is a BD I am going to wait for the pullback to 5/8MA before going short
- 11:05 (17:05) we dropped to 52 level on high TV of about 600+ and then dropped a bit more the next candle with even more TV so we might be looking to slow down
- This is also the 4H 50MA level that we are testing as support now. Will it break?
- I was thinking that since we returned to 5M VWAP mean we might continue the downtrend and then we shot down now at 11:45 candle (17:45) but are possible being pushed back by the bulls
- I believe the market is still trying to decide where to go and extra caution should be exercised
- Good thing I didn’t act on the assumption since we shot down. I was thinking to short but hesitated
- It looks like we have the BD by confirming 52.55 as resistance
- I will look for pullbacks to trade off of or have we dropped far enough?
- The tape reads a bit faster than usual so not comfortable with this yet but I’ll see and be extra cautious in taking another trade
- Next support area would be the 49.50 dollar mark. HIstorically we bounced off this level as we did last week
- We are having higher TV around this level of 51.30 and PA looks to being pushed back but we are still in short territory
- We can see that every swing in the downtrend has been getting bigger which could indicate a shift in direction on the horizon and I should be extra careful to short since the short term downtrend might be over
- 12:30 (18:30) we are now testing 50.50 level and are looking to break WPP at 50.822 as well
- High TV of about 1300 at 50.50 level but we need to push back further and hold on for about 17 more minutes before I can think of taking a long since we are still very much falling and I should be looking for a short entry
- We are 100 ticks away from last week’s low of 49.50 so if we are going to reverse into a medium term uptrend this would be a good point to create a HL on the higher time frames
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV.
- 13pm (19:00) NEWS FLASH
- Saudis Back Modest OPEC+ Output Cut, Don’t Want to Shock Market
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- Al-Falih says a cut of about 1 million barrels a day adequate
- Crucial details remain unresolved as ministers meet in Vienna
- No specifics on sharing of the cuts
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- We are looking at a possible bottom here on the 5M chart as PA is crossing the 13MA
- I resisted the urge to take a long position since the trend is still very much down
- When we pullback to the 5M VWAP mean I’d be looking for a reversal candle
- But we broke it
- We are entering the KC again and I’d be more comfortable taking a long position after we pullback to 51.30 level and CAS first
- We didn’t pullback perse but we did move higher to what now looks like a V‑shaped pattern on the 30M. I’ve seen this pattern many times before using the VWAP and MAs and it’s interesting to see how the pattern develops in relation to these
- I’ll include this in my Playbook
- NY is opening in 20 minutes so I won’t be trading then since I only trade the London session for now
- Right before NY opened we had a drop to the LKC on the 5M and we might be looking to test that 51 level again
- NY opened so that’s it for me today
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My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take 4 trades
- Only take PB setups (swing reversal, swing reversal with continuation, squeeze)
- Only trade what you see
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
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- Swing Reversal with Continuation
- We had rejected the 53.55 level and quickly reversed
- Then PA broke UKC and CAR with a longer upper wick candle so I shorted with a small position at 52.672
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- SL
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- SL I put over the 13MA to be safe at 52.837 but if it had jumped back up on the second candle I’d taken myself out earlier
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- TP
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- 52.331 under the body of the cluster of candles on the 30M
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- Trade Management
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- I felt confident going into the trade and when we had hit 52.55 level I was looking for a way out and I manually covered at 52.564
- I thought 52.55 could have been a tough level of support for the market to crack so I covered
- Why didn’t I allow my TP to get hit? Because I am learning this particular trade a bit better and trying to get more confident in it. I haven’t backtested this setup a lot yet.
- I felt confident going into the trade and when we had hit 52.55 level I was looking for a way out and I manually covered at 52.564
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- T2
- Why? What do I see?
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- Swing Reversal with Continuation
- I saw that we pushed back hard on the 30M chart rejecting the 52 level for now with a possible move to CAR 52.55
- Also we had moved under the LKC and hit the lower 2.0 SD of the 5M VWAP and thus a possible reversal would be possible
- So I took a small long position at 52.362
- Swing Reversal with Continuation
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- SL
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- Below previous candle at 52.167
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- TP
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- 52.515 but covered manually at 52.445
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- Trade Management
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- I think I did good to trade smaller today and build my confidence first
- What I did not do good is that this was the pullback to 52.55 level to CAR and thus I should have just looked for short opportunities and not have gone long. Stunts like this will cost me a lot on the long run.
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- T3
- NOT TAKEN
- T4
- NOT TAKEN
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I covered quickly on both trades because of hitting a crucial level so that then begs the question if my TP level was actually warranted in the first place and why did I not set it at that level that I myself covered at? Well, I think the reason is that 1) I’m still trying to get more confident in trading this way and the setups, 2) at this point I am happy with taking some profits since my goal at the moment is to just take one good trade at a time and letting my TP rules play out is a goal for another time in my opinion.
- I showed good restraint in not over-trading and believe me I wanted to take several more trades but I think this only taking 4 trades rule might be a good one to stick with for a while. It makes me more critical about what trade to take.
- I did have the thought that if this restraint was actually a restraint or that it also had something to do with fear of trying. When I am not in a position I can’t lose money right?! But I think that even though it might have played a tiny role in the back of my mind it was more trying to take one good trade at a time.
- Things I could have done better are:
- Getting into my positions earlier
- But like I said I am trying to get more confident first and are looking for more confirmation before I enter a trade
- Since we had established a downtrend on the 5M I should have been more alert to possible shorting opportunities
- There was a good one at right after I closed my long position (which I should not have taken) and because of that I don’t think I was focused on that short opportunity
- So lesson here is determine the trend and then only look for opportunities following that trend. If I had that would have been a nice 110 pip drop
- Live and learn my friend
- Getting into my positions earlier
- Another good thing I did was taking smaller positions than what I normally do
Daily Report Card
- Only take 4 trades
- I only took 2 trades today and I am happy with that. Both of them turned a profit.
- One 11 pips and the other 8 pips
- I only took 2 trades today and I am happy with that. Both of them turned a profit.
- Only take PB setups (swing reversal, swing reversal with continuation, squeeze)
- I did only take my setups and I will backtest these setups more to get more confident in them. Also, I am going to implement a leveling system to give me the right to trade bigger.
- I want to have 5 consecutive up days before I trade bigger
- Only trade what you see
- I think I did well in this department. I do gotta say though that I saw the trend changing and going back up but since we were still in short territory I didn’t take those trades. I will go back and review what I did and how I could have done it better.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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