Bear Market Trader | Trade Journal on day trading the WTI crude oil market
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12062019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

12062019 Wednesday — Trade Plan & Journal

12062019 Wednes­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical

Health review (for the past week)

  • Week­ly goal
    • Eat less carbs
  • How do you feel?
    • I feel good although a lit­tle tired because I slept 7.5 hours so I could get up at 6 am.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 4

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Lat­est Release Jun 11, 2019
    • Actu­al 4.850M
    • Pre­vi­ous 3.545M
  • EIA report
    • Today

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HTF
    • Define con­text
      • Where were the overnight highs and lows and PVA?
        • High 54.186
        • PVAH 53.902
        • PPOC 53.674
        • PVAL 53.423
        • Low 53.094
      • Where is the LIS?
        • 52.70 area
      • What didn’t happen?
        • We didn’t stay above HTF200MA
      • Dialling in on opportunities
        • Is there a shift in value/excess migra­tion? What is the cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tion? Are we trend­ing, balancing/range bound? Where are we in the trend range axis?
          • Although we have a TTF DT I am think­ing that this is pos­si­bly a ‘load up’ phase to even­tu­al­ly turn higher.
  • TTF
    • What trade loca­tions among this struc­ture would l like to get involved in that will offer me the best R/R opportunities?
      • HTF D TC
    • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
      • We trad­ed low­er in a TTF DT with a short-term rever­sal to pos­si­bly set up a high­er momen­tum drop

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • Entry around 52.75
    • Tar­gets 52.30, 52.05, extend­ed 51.80
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • TTF D TT
    • Entry around 52.30
    • Tar­gets 52.50, 52.70
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • Entry around 52.80
    • Tar­gets 53.10

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Size up and have patience to only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:05
      • Pos­si­ble HTF D TC
    • 16:35
      • Pos­si­ble TTF D TC @ 1.0SD
    • 17:05
      • Bull­ish Engulf­ing Pat­tern after exhaust­ed move down
    • 17:35
      • TTF D TT after an Engulf­ing Bull­ish pattern
    • 18:05
      • TTF LKC VWAP area
    • 18:35
      • 19:05
        • 19:35
          • 20:05

          Trade Man­age­ment

          Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

          • T1
            • Why? What do I see?
              • HTF
                • HTF D TC
              • TTF
                • TTF D NT
                • Entry 20 @ 52.477
              • LTF
                • LTF D NT
            • SL
              • TP
                • Trade Man­age­ment
                  • Cov­ered at 52.393
              • T2
                • Why? What do I see?
                  • HTF
                    • HTF D TC
                  • TTF
                    • (exper­i­men­tal) TTF D TC @ 1.0 SD
                    • Entry 10 @ 51.94
                  • LTF
                    • LTF LKC
                • SL
                  • 52.14
                • TP
                  • 51.71
                • Trade Man­age­ment
                  • Stopped out at 52.04

              Dai­ly Report Card

              Trade Idea

              • Hypo 1 Short
                • TTFUKCCAR
                • Entry around 52.75
                • Tar­gets 52.30, 52.05, extend­ed 51.80
              • Hypo 2 Long
                • TTF D TT
                • Entry around 52.30
                • Tar­gets 52.50, 52.70
              • Hypo 3 Long
                • TTFUKCBO
                • Entry around 52.80
                • Tar­gets 53.10

              Date:6/12/2019Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ (TTF TC) / A setups (TTF NT)

              Com­bined Score86

              Process Report Card (10 each)
              Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)

              8Ses­sion PECS100%10Real-time analy­sis

              8Hypos2/210Setups Iden­ti­fied (TEST)

              10Trad­ing the process2/210Setups tak­en

              10Dai­ly review1/25Erro­neous Entries

              10Progress tow. week­ly goal1/25Erro­neous Exits


              • Week­ly Goal
                • Size up and have patience to only take A+ (TTF TC) and A (TTF NT) setups to build a track record to ana­lyze lat­er but be open to exper­i­ment with TTF R setups
              • Review
              P/L ticksEntry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSiz­ingHit Tar­get?Rea­son to coverProb­lemPro­posed solution
              8.411TTF D NT20NOFOLPCov­ered just below TTFLKC even though I ‘knew’ it would drop moreFOLP — Fear Of Los­ing Profitscat­e­go­rize videos per set­up and replay videos, mea­sure ticks left on the table for not fol­low­ing exit rule
              -1000(Exper­i­men­tal) TTF D TC @ 1.0SD10NOSOcross 1.0 SD--
              • T1
                • Bad
                  • I did not do well on stalk­ing this trade. I was pre­oc­cu­pied look­ing at some­thing else that I could have missed this
                    • Solu­tion: keep using price alerts
                  • FOLP addressed above
                  • Missed out on Real­is­tic Tick Oppor­tu­ni­ty (RTO) 26 ticks
                • Good
                  • As soon as I saw the oppor­tu­ni­ty I took a few sec­onds to con­firm my think­ing and opened a posi­tion. Hap­py about this.
                  • Sized up as part of my new goal so I’m very hap­py about that. 
              • T2: This was an exper­i­men­tal trade that I took 
                • Good
                  • I got stopped out even though down in ticks I’m up in mon­ey due to sizing
                  • I learned more about mar­ket con­text today. When there’s a move on the HHTF PA on the TTF doesn’t fol­low reg­u­lar rules (I’ve seen this sev­er­al times before) I will take this into my PB.
                  • Even though short­ly after I got stopped out it would have dropped in my favor, I didn’t get back in out of FOMO. 
                • Bad
                  • RTO 25 ticks
                    • I’m not feel­ing too bad about this because I am still learn­ing about this par­tic­u­lar setup.
              • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
                • HYPO 1 — 80%
                  • The entry and tar­gets were a lit­tle off but still good
              • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
                • Didn’t do well on stalk­ing my oppor­tu­ni­ty as men­tioned before but the rest I did well. 
              • What’s one thing you learned today?
                • Piec­ing togeth­er more parts of the crude oil mar­ket context
              • What’s one thing I need to do more often?
                • Keep fol­low­ing the process
              • What’s one thing I need to do less often?
                • Cut win­ners too soon
                  • I have put in place a process for this; I will cat­e­go­rize my screen record­ings and rewatch all the videos with the same set­up to grow more con­fi­dent in the set­up and my exit rules.
                  • All in all I am still build­ing a track record of tak­ing my setups so focus is more on entries than exits but I will con­tin­u­ous­ly work on them as well. Just tak­ing my setups has net­ted me a prof­it for the last month till now. I know I am leav­ing too much on the table that is unnec­es­sary. I have also start­ed col­lect­ing the data on how the big moves was (of the trades I made the mis­take of get­ting out too soon) to see how many ticks I missed out on. I mea­sure the actu­al move and then what I could have real­is­ti­cal­ly taken. 


              Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


              Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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