
07 Dec 12072018 Trade Plan — Indecisive market in anticipation of OPEC+ decision
12072018 Trade Plan — Indecisive market in anticipation of OPEC+ decision
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
- TP = Take Profit
- SL = Stop Loss
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday |
12/02/2018 | 12/03/2018 | 12/04/2018 | 12/05/2018 | 12/05/2018 | 12/06/2018 | |
Beers night before | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 finger whiskey | 1 finger whiskey |
Hours sleep | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7.5 |
Sleep well? | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 |
Negative thoughts? | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Gratitude | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Coffees today | 1 | 1 | 2 espressos | 1 espresso | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours |
Water 2.2L bottles | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | no | yes | no | yes | yes | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 00:00 | 11:00 | 11:00 | 11:00 | 11:00 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I feel good even though my throat hurts a bit and I’m not sure what it is so I start thinking the worst things that it could be and I know I shouldn’t… Getting better at it. It starts with identifying that you are doing it and then simply tell yourself to stop doing it and focus. Easy huh 🙂
- Another thing is that I feel like my energy levels are more up again so definitely feeling I am getting in a healthier rhythm.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 4
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- Yesterday it initially seemed the bears were in charge before the OPEC+ meeting but then when it was released that there was going to be a cut of 1 mbpd we saw the bulls coming into the market
- I feel that usually the market knows already what the outcome of the meeting is going to be and therefore was preparing for it by getting on or getting out. Let’s see if that was the case
- Yesterday’s close was a slight bullish sign and there was huge TV on it of 351K but that doesn’t mean that we will continue that direction during the Asian session and London session today, or NY for that matter. Let’s wait and see.
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com yesterday
- All sentiments is 57% bullish
- Last week 60% bullish
- Last 3 days 61% bullish
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 58% bullish
- Last week 63% bullish
- Last 3 days 62% bullish
- So we have a slightly more bullish sentiment according to investing.com but keep in mind that this does not mean we found a bottom here
- According to investing.com yesterday
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- It looks like EURUSD is moving into the apex of a triangle and soon we could be looking at a BO or BD
- Could the unemployment rate or non-farm payrolls be the catalyst? Or perhaps the trade war with China again that has been a hot issue with the arrest of Huawei’s CFO?
- Price range is 1.132 and 1.141
- It looks like EURUSD is moving into the apex of a triangle and soon we could be looking at a BO or BD
- Gold
- Gold has hit 1240 level and looks to perhaps take a breather however it could still go till 1255 before it hits a bigger time frame resistance again. If we do reverse the next support level is at 1180
- Sentiment according to investing.com is 64% in the last 3 days
- Geopolitics
- China US trade war looked to be toning down but then after the arrest of Huawei’s CFO that is risking to flare up again
- Reason for arrest possible breaking of sanctions against Iran
- Rejecting suggestions of delay, UK PM May’s team says Brexit vote will go ahead
- Russia must scrap or alter missiles U.S. says violate arms treaty
- U.S. fails to win enough support at U.N. to condemn Hamas
- Merkel’s party votes for new leader, and new era in Germany
- China US trade war looked to be toning down but then after the arrest of Huawei’s CFO that is risking to flare up again
Intraday Fundamentals
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- API report
- Previous 3.453M
- Actual 5.360M
- So there was more of a build than previously expected
- EIA report
- Previous 4.851M
- Forecast 0.769
- Actual 3.577M
- So we have way more build than was forecast so expect more selling pressure to come in
- What are the headlines of today?
- Iraq being the second largest oil producer and one of Iran’s largest trade partners might enjoy longer sanction waivers from Washington
- OPEC Talks End Without Oil-Cuts Deal as Russia Holds Back
- Not everybody ready to cut equally
- Iran Hopes Iranian-EU Oil Trade Mechanism To Start Working By Year-End
- Iran hopes that the special purpose vehicle that would allow the European Union (EU) to continue buying Iranian oil amid the U.S. sanctions will become operational by the end of this year
- Fractured OPEC Walks Away From The Table
- After six hours of discussions, OPEC didn’t agree on Thursday on any specific oil production cut agreement as members are quarrelling on how to divvy up the production cuts and who will be exempt from reducing output, while all signs point to the cartel waiting to see how much Russia will agree to cut before announcing a possible deal.
- Let’s see if they can come to an agreement today
- Maduro: Russia, Venezuela Sign $5B Deals To Boost Venezuelan Oil Production
- Back from a visit to Moscow, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro tweeted a video on Thursday, in which he said that Venezuela and Russia have signed US$5‑billion investment deals to increase oil production in the Latin American country.
- The U.S. Just Became a Net Oil Exporter for the First Time in 75 Years
- API report
- NEWS FLASH
- Agreed on 900.000 to 1 MBPD and press release will come soon
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- They said that yesterday as well so let’s wait for the official press release
- Such bullshit by Bloomberg, how can they when OPEC+ is still considering the deal and sharing of cuts
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Intraday TA
Thursday | Friday | Week | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | |
11/29/2018 | 11/30/2018 | 11/26 — 11/30 | 12/03/2018 | 12/04/2018 | 12/05/2018 | 12/06/2018 | |
High | 52.165 | 51.765 | 52.525 | 53.83 | 54.537 | 54.42 | 53.28 |
Low | 49.385 | 49.625 | 49.385 | 50.555 | 52.405 | 52.125 | 50.055 |
Close | 51.235 | 50.555 | 50.555 | 53.06 | 52.57 | 52.91 | 51.694 |
Pip move | 278 | 214 | 314 | 327.5 | 213.2 | 229.5 | 322.5 |
PP | 50.928 | 50.648 | 50.822 | 52.482 | 53.171 | 53.152 | 51.676 |
R1 | 52.471 | 51.671 | 52.259 | 54.409 | 53.937 | 54.179 | 53.297 |
R2 | 53.708 | 52.788 | 53.962 | 55.757 | 55.303 | 55.447 | 54.901 |
S1 | 49.691 | 49.531 | 49.119 | 51.134 | 51.805 | 51.884 | 50.072 |
S2 | 48.148 | 48.508 | 47.682 | 49.207 | 51.039 | 50.857 | 48.451 |
TV | 168,514 | 174,565 | 1,008,709 | 211,252 | 141,633 | 102,902 | 351,292 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- Even though we went up a bit yesterday we dropped in in the DPP so did resistance and support levels
- We had a bigger intraday swing though with 322 pips due to the expectations and announcement of OPEC+ meeting I believe
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- Yesterday we found support at the weekly time frame 50.40 level that we bounced off last week as well before we started retracing on the bear run from the last 2 months
- And we’ve been ranging between 50.40 and 53.75 both of which are higher time frame levels
- Question is will this level hold because if it doesn’t we might find the next big support level to be at the 46.50 level
- The 4H chart shows we have another interference at 52.55 the level that was also critical yesterday
- Yesterday we broke that level and we are now ranging between 50.40 and 52.55 since yesterday
- Yesterday we found support at the weekly time frame 50.40 level that we bounced off last week as well before we started retracing on the bear run from the last 2 months
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- On the 30M chart we can see that we dropped till the 30M VWAP mean and are now hugging the mean and might be looking for a squeeze here
- The 5M chart definitely shows PA trading flat and a squeeze seems likelier
- On the 30M chart we can see that we dropped till the 30M VWAP mean and are now hugging the mean and might be looking for a squeeze here
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- ATR is still increasing and is now 2.5193
- So the battle between bulls and bears is getting more intense so let’s wait and see who wins
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan (added during the London session. I forgot to include this in my template and thus didn’t see it when I was preparing but that is still no excuse)
- If we are ranging between 51.10 and 51.80 I’m gonna focus on shorting near the 51.80 and looking for long opportunities near the 51.10
- If we break the 51.10 I am going to look for BD opportunities
- Next support would be 50.80 and then 50.50
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take 4 trades
- Only take PB setups (swing reversal, swing reversal with continuation, squeeze)
- Only trade what you see
Reading the Tape
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- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- The last few hours during the AS we made a lot of lower and upper wicked candles. What do I mean by that? It looks like there’s a lot of indecision in the market at this point and if this continues I won’t be making a trade today.
- This is probably due to OPEC+ meeting concerns on the outcome on cuts etc.
- This all happened just above the 51 level.
- When we look at the 30M chart we can see that yesterday we had a cluster of candles (this is what I call swings of PA close together) and now we are at the bottom of the center range of that same cluster. So there’s definitely chance we could drop further or we could bounce off this level and start ranging between 51.10 and 51.80 if we break 51.50 as well
- On the 5M chart we can see a clear downtrending KC so can we don the 30M
- Even though we pushed back up from the 50.50 level yesterday we are still not in the clear when it comes to the control by the bears.
- 10:10 (16:10) we just spiked up hitting the 5M UKC / 30M VWAP mean
- 10:20 we are testing the 5M KC on lower TV
- If we break this level the next resistance is 51.80 which would also be the 30M 2.0 SD
- Also PA seems faster than usual what I deem more comfortable to trade in but I’m not going to let that hold me back. Just going to be more cautious.
- 10:25 we quickly dropped to 5M VWAP mean and with that we closed the 30M candle very bearish with a long upper wick and smaller body at the bottom which could mean we are rejecting this 51.50 level
- The last few hours during the AS we made a lot of lower and upper wicked candles. What do I mean by that? It looks like there’s a lot of indecision in the market at this point and if this continues I won’t be making a trade today.
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- My bias is towards the short side
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- I’m going to take even smaller positions since the market conditions are very volatile
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- NEWS FLASH
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- OPEC Goes Back Into Crunch Talks as Russia Resists Big Oil Cut
- “Not everybody is ready to cut equally,” Al-Falih told reporters in Vienna. “Russia is not ready for a substantial cut.”
- Iran appears to be the main obstacle for an OPEC oil output deal on Friday as the group’s leader Saudi Arabia has yet to agree exemptions for sanctions-hit Tehran, two OPEC sources said.
- OPEC Goes Back Into Crunch Talks as Russia Resists Big Oil Cut
- Good thing I didn’t take a short position at the 5M VWAP mean because we just shot up and over the LKC and are testing the 30M 2.0 SD at the moment
- 10:40: Weird that we shot up so much. Another reason to be extra cautious. We are testing the 51.80 level now.
- We rejected the 51.80 level and are looking to get back into the 5M KC now and breaking the 13MA
- I stated earlier that my bias was short but I still went long. That is a no no. I should have only been looking for shorts which the 51.80 level was. That would have been a great opportunity but I don’t feel too confident in catching those ceiling before the drop.
- We just dropped to the 5M VWAP mean and it’s looking to break and I wanted to take a short but then hesitated so still trying to feel more confident in this environment. The hesitation came when I looked at the 30M we had also dropped to the VWAP mean there.
- We did drop at this level but I am still happy for not taking that trade because it wasn’t a clear opportunity and with PA being so erratic today I decided to be extra cautious.
- 11:20 It’s a big drop though and we are testing 51.10 level again
- 11:30 we just had a spike drop to 50.80 level (which is also the WPP level by the way) in a crazy millisecond drop and are possibly looking to reject this level which would allow me to take a possible long trade here but I am still trying to feel out the market.
- We topped over 1000 TV on this particular move. Which makes sense. This could be the big guys stopping out the small guys and loading up for a potential bull run afterwards.
- If we reverse here I will wait for a pullback and will do the same if we BD at this level
- It looks like the almost opposite of what happened at the 51.80 level we are having the same at the 50.80 level and we seem to reject this level as well.
- Again this 50.80 level coincides with the 30M 2.0 SD and the 5M LKC and 2.0 SD so a long position would have been warranted but I am put off by the market behaviour. I also don’t think we’ll have that pullback like we didn’t have that before at the 51.80 level
- Could this be run for the 5M VWAP mean to CAR and then reverse again?
- The 30M shows indecision so does the 4H but that one still has a little over an hour left in the candle so doesn’t mean much at the moment.
- I’m going to sit back and try and learn from today’s session. I am also recording this and will categorize this as an indecisive market in expectation of OPEC’s agreement.
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- NEWS FLASH 15 minutes ago
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- Iran seeks exemptions as OPEC awaits approval from Russia to impose production cuts
- The 15-member organization will hold talks with allied oil-producing nations at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria on Friday.
- It comes after deep divisions in the energy alliance were laid bare at a closely-watched meeting on Thursday, with the group unable to agree on the terms of crude output cuts.
- International benchmark Brent crude briefly climbed above $60 a barrel Friday morning, as OPEC delegates reportedly said the group would discuss a possible exemption from output cuts for Iran.
- So still awaiting conclusive news from OPEC
- We just shot up to the 5M VWAP mean at 11:50 (17:50) and are looking to break it
- We started consolidating just on top of the 5M VWAP mean with long wicked candles
- Then we had a BO at 12:25 (18:25) to 5M 1.0 SD but then quickly reversed. And what looks like a bullish candle turns out to be bearish afterwards and vice versa. So once again more confirmation that I am going to stay out of the market
- 12:55 (18:55) We started testing the 51.80 level again and got immediately pushed back but might actually break it since we are looking to test it again
- We ended up rejecting the 51.80 and have dropped back to 51.50 level that coincides with 5M and 30M VWAP mean
- Now we could be ranging between 51.50 and 51.80 in a in what looks like another triangle
- 14:10 (20:10) Retesting the 51.80 again
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- NEWS FLASH 10 minutes ago
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- OPEC talks stall as Saudis refuse to exempt Iran from oil cut
- “Iran will insist on an exemption until sanctions are removed,” one of the OPEC sources said. Another source said Tehran wanted an OPEC communique to specify that Iran was exempt from cuts.
- Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/opec-talks-stall-as-saudis-refuse-to-exempt-iran-from-oil-cut-11010830
- OPEC talks stall as Saudis refuse to exempt Iran from oil cut
- 14:20 (20:20) And we broke the 51.80 level and we are at the 52 level and I wonder if we have enough momentum to break the 4H 50MA or that we bounce off this level and reverse back down
- Next resistance is at WR1 52.25 and then the 4H resistance at 52.55 that we tested yesterday
- And no… we failed to actually break the 52 level and then reversed to 51.80
- Could this be a CAS?
- We are having another smaller triangle at this level just 10 minutes before NY open
- It is NY open time and that means I’m done trading for the day. All in all a good day I’d say. I learned a lot and will discuss more in underneath.
- NY SHOT UP CRAZY and is testing 52.55 and looking to break that. I’ll come back tomorrow and see how this has developed so I can plan for next week which I’ll of course share with you.
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Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
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- Squeeze
- I entered late on this but the reason why I entered was that I saw a squeeze setup had played out and I thought there would be an continuation of it after rejecting 13MA and the VWAP mean with a very bearish candle
- So I entered very poorly at the bottom of the range
- Don’t think I’d take this trade again
- Entered at 51.634
- I entered late on this but the reason why I entered was that I saw a squeeze setup had played out and I thought there would be an continuation of it after rejecting 13MA and the VWAP mean with a very bearish candle
- Squeeze
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- SL
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- I put SL very high at 51.899 because I saw that we we’re making erratic moves during the AS but I was still bearish on the 30M chart and didn’t wanna get stopped out as had happened many times. Get stopped out and then the market moves into my favor which happened here as well.
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- TP
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- 51.393
- I put the TP fairly wide above the 30M VWAP mean which was on the same level as the center of the previous cluster of candles on the 30M (which after a BD I see price hitting that level more often than not)
- 51.393
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- Trade Management
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- I walked away from my screen which was probably a good thing because I hit my TP. If I had watched my screen I would have probably got out earlier so this is definitely something I have to work on. Either train myself to walk away from my screen or train myself to withstand impulses and just let my trade work itself out. At this moment I am more in favor of the last since this is more hard in my opinion and why not try and conquer this emotional battle and be more Zen 🙂
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- T2
- Why? What do I see?
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- UKC BO
- 10:55: Took a long after the we shot up over the UKC on the 5M and pulled back to the 5MA as that is my setup but it feels counterintuitive because of the ‘weird’ feeling in the market because of indecision in my opinion
- I took a smaller than usual position to feel the market out a bit with a tight stop
- Entry: 51.660
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- SL
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- 51.532
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- TP
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- 51.787
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- Trade Management
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- I saw that PA was breaking the 5MA and I still stayed in the trade because of the off behaviour of PA today thought it might not follow ‘rules’ as clearly. Then price dropped and took out my stop and I’m OK with that. Since I did it in a controlled fashion.
- And we are looking to drop back into the 5M KC now.
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- T3
- NOT TAKEN
- T4
- NOT TAKEN
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I think I did well today. This morning during the AS I saw an opportunity and thought to grab it and because I wasn’t sitting in front of my screen it actually got the chance to hit my TP at a good profit of 24 pips
- As a future goal I have determined for myself that I will first focus on trading my setups and not worry as much about the taking profit part until I get consistent in only trading my setups.
- Then afterwards I will focus on letting my winners run until they hit the rules I have set out for them. If, and only if, then I see that this is too hard for me to do I will consider to try out a trial of putting on a trade and simply walking away to check it later on. For now I will stick with my current plan and will decide later.
- When I saw that PA was terribly erratic, more so than in previous days, I decided to be extra cautious and put on smaller risk. This lead into me taking a trade that got stopped out which I’m happy with since I decided to test the market a little bit to get a feel for it and got stopped out. Afterwards I kept tracking the market but not taking trades since I could not get in synch with the market.
- All in all a good day.
- I think I did well today. This morning during the AS I saw an opportunity and thought to grab it and because I wasn’t sitting in front of my screen it actually got the chance to hit my TP at a good profit of 24 pips
Daily Report Card
- Only take 4 trades
- I only took 2 trades so that’s good. I truly believe that this rule is making me more conscious about what risk to take on
- Only take PB setups (swing reversal, swing reversal with continuation, squeeze)
- I’m doing good here as well however, I did realize that for certain opportunities I have to think of a new PlayBook name. For example the swing reversal with continuation can extend to over the other KC and if I haven’t gotten in yet I can take the first pullback after the BO/BD and then it doesn’t feel like a swing reversal with continuation anymore but a KC BO/BD setup. I’ll distinguish this in my backtesting as well.
- Only trade what you see
- I did good on this as well since what I saw wasn’t something I could make sense out of so I decided to try with less risk put on and then just decided to not trade at all.
- I think this has definitely been a good day.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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