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12082019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal - Bear Market Trader
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12082019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal

12082019 Monday — Trade Plan & Journal

12082019 Mon­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • R/R = Risk to Reward
  • M2M = Move to Move
  • T2H = Trade to Hold
  • DT = DownTrend
  • UT = UpTrend
  • R = Range
  • LTF = Low­er Time Frame
  • TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
  • HTF = High­er Time Frame
  • HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
  • Hypo = HYPOthetical
  • AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

  • Week­ly goal
    • First meal can eat rice and noodles
  • How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
    • Sat­ur­day stayed up very late and might have had insuf­fi­cient sleep on Sun­day but feel­ing good at the moment but let’s see how my ener­gy is dur­ing the session.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
    • 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5

Mar­ket Prep

Intraweek Fun­da­men­tals

  • API report
    • Tomor­row
  • EIA report
    • Wednes­day

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

  • HHTF
    • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • We moved back into KC all the way up to 50MA and we might see a PB here before we have a 50MABO, although we could PB all the way to LKCCAS
  • HTF
    • Lev­els
      • Prev. High 54.741
      • PVAH 54.741
      • PPOC 54.278
      • PVAL 52.753
      • Prev. Low 52.261
    • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
      • We had what pos­si­ble looks like an exhaust­ed 200MABO with con­se­quent small PA back down over VWAP to UKC, pos­si­ble more down­side next tar­get could be 50MA area before set­ting up a pos­si­ble continuation
  • TTF
    • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
      • TTF has made a near-touch of 200MA with an uncon­vinc­ing rejec­tion cross­ing over 50MA with now the 50 near­ing the 200, a pos­si­ble Bd for the short/medium term could be on the horizon.

Trade Idea

  • Hypo 1 Short
    • HTF U TT to 50MACAS
    • Entry around 53.95
    • Tar­gets 53.65
  • Hypo 2 Long
    • HTF U TC @ 50MACAS
    • Entry around 53.65
    • Tar­gets 53.95, 54.40
  • Hypo 3 Long
    • HTF U TC @ UKC
    • Entry around 54.30
    • Tar­gets 54.60, 54.90

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Define win­ning
    • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
    • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is printing? 
    • 16:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Drop from HTF UKCCAS to 50MA poten­tial for more downside
      • TTF
        • AD under UKCCAS with then a drop well below LKC, PA still trad­ing with­in 1.0 SD, VWAP could pos­si­bly catch up with PA and we could see anoth­er drop but for now we might see a bit of a PB
      • Bias
        • Uncon­vinc­ing­ly short
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Short = TTF U TC @ VWAP, pos­si­bly at 50MA
        • Long = PA look­ing to cross VWAP as part of TTF D TT
    • 17:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Dropped past 50MA now test­ing 200MA pos­si­ble more down­side on short term
      • TTF
        • PA has breached 1.0SD a few times and there is a rever­sal can­dle so regver­sal might be upon us how­ev­er need to wait for more con­fir­ma­tion before going long oth­er­wise the short bias is still in play
      • Bias
        • Short unless we can breach TTF VWAP
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
          • TTF D TC @ VWAP
          • TTF D TT @ VWAPBO
    • 17:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Noth­ing much going on unclear on narrative
    • 18:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Noth­ing much going on unclear on narrative
    • 18:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Noth­ing much going on unclear on narrative
    • 19:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • HTFLKCCAS
      • TTF
        • TTF D TT @ LKCCAS to 50MA BO attempt
      • Bias
        • We are hit­ting HTF50MA so not sure if there’s a con­tin­u­a­tion to this move. I’m gonna stay out the rest of the ses­sion due to lack of clarity
      • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
        • What set­up am I going to stalk?
    • 19:35
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
          • Unclear
          • LKCCAS
        • TTF
          • TTF returned to 200MA
        • Bias
          • Unclear on nar­ra­tive so not tak­ing any trades.
        • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
          • What set­up am I going to stalk?
            • None atm
    • 20:05
      • HTF
        • What is the mar­ket narrative?
      • TTF
        • Bias
          • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
            • What set­up am I going to stalk?

      Dai­ly Report Card

      Trade Idea

      • Hypo 1 Short
        • HTF U TT to 50MACAS
        • Entry around 53.95
        • Tar­gets 53.65
      • Hypo 2 Long
        • HTF U TC @ 50MACAS
        • Entry around 53.65
        • Tar­gets 53.95, 54.40
      • Hypo 3 Long
        • HTF U TC @ UKC
        • Entry around 54.30
        • Tar­gets 54.60, 54.90





      Dai­ly Report Card



      Date:8/12/2019



      Week­ly GoalExe­cute A+ / A setups



      Com­bined Score72



      Process Report Card (10 each)

      8Ses­sion PECS

      6Hypos

      10Mar­ket Prep

      10Dai­ly review

      0Progress tow. week­ly goal

      34Total






      Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
      100%8Real-time analy­sis
      1/110Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
      1/110Setups tak­en
      1/10Erro­neous Entries
      0/110Erro­neous Exits

      38total



      • Week­ly Goal
        • Only trade A/A+ trade ideas
        • For­ward test exper­i­men­tal trades
      • Review
      TradeEntry ErrorsExit ErrorsType TradeSizeRea­son to coverProb­lemPro­posed solution
      ---------
      110HTF U TC @ 50MA1SOStopped OutGot in too ear­ly on front side of the moveWait for more con­fir­ma­tion on big­ger drop moves
      100HTF U TC @ 50MA1Scratchedscratched when there was no con­vinc­ing sign of reversal--
      200HTF200MA test5SOStopped Out--
      300HTF200MA test5SOStopped Out--
      • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
        • Hypo 1 — 60%
          • I could have done bet­ter here. Should have real­ized that a drop would go fur­ther than the first tech lev­el. Took note of this. 
        • Real-time analy­sis — 80% 
          • I was slight­ly biased based on my hypo and didn’t base bias on MGI. This was prob­a­bly due to the fol­low­ing section.
      • How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
        • P: Had less sleep over the week­end and that seeped in today
        • E: Did well here espe­cial­ly under the circumstances
        • CS: Could have been bet­ter. Luck­i­ly, I adjust­ed my posi­tion siz­ing down to match this. 
      • What’s one thing you learned today?
        • Keep doing what works. Base your direc­tion on a clear mar­ket nar­ra­tive. This is where you do well. 
      • Positive(s)
        • Down­sized sizing
        • Stopped tak­ing trades (after 2 tries) on the same idea, there were 2 ideas.
      • Negative(s)
        • Did not weigh mar­ket nar­ra­tive as much as I should have and based trades most­ly off TTF which is a big no no
          • Took notes of it and will replay. Anoth­er rule that I imple­ment­ed is no tak­ing trades when I lack sleep. Earn the right to trade by being at your best. I can just sit here and observe the mar­ket tak­ing notes.
        • Got in on the front side of the move again with­out wait­ing for con­fir­ma­tion. This is not how I trade. Learn to be more patient. On the oth­er side it was good to trade small­est contract.

      Feed­back?

      Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

      T3chAddict
      t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

      Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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