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12102018 Trade Plan — Road Trip trading

Daily Report Card

12102018 Trade Plan — Road Trip trading

12102018 Trade Plan — Road Trip Trading

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeMon­dayTues­dayWednes­dayThurs­dayFri­daySat­ur­daySun­dayMon­day
12/03/201812/04/201812/05/201812/06/201812/07/201812/08/201812/09/201812/10/2018
Beers night before0001 fin­ger whiskey1 fin­ger whiskey6412
Hours sleep78887.57.585
Sleep well?23233331
Mela­tonin00.5000.25000
Neg­a­tive thoughts?22222212
Exer­cise yester(to)day11112112
Grat­i­tude54455455
Joy54455455
Anger11121211
Fear11121211
Focus23334232
Cof­fees today12 espres­sos1 espres­so1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1.5 cof­fee
no
Water 2.2L bottles2222221.51
Vit­a­minsyesnoyesyesyesyesnono
Time bed yesterday00:0011:0011:0011:0011:0001:0003:0004:00

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • Last two days didn’t sleep too well because of stay­ing up too late. Yes­ter­day I went on a trip with friends and we had a great time with a bit too much too drink so if I would be trad­ing today I would def­i­nite­ly be extra cau­tious but sad­ly I won’t be trad­ing today. How­ev­er, I will check the charts when­ev­er I can. The rea­son I won’t be trad­ing is that we are still on our trip. I won’t be dri­ving so I can work on trad­ing from the backseat.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • Actu­al­ly, I feel good but that’s because I feel hap­py hav­ing a great time but I’m def­i­nite­ly tired so I’m gonna give it a 2.

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • The API report will be released on Tues­day 4:30 AM E.T.
  • EIA report
    • Some of the EIA report will be released Wednes­day at 10:30 AM E.T. and the rest at 1 PM E.T.
  • What are the head­lines of today?
    • Rus­sia will need months to imple­ment the cuts agreed upon in the OPEC+ meeting
    • Oil extends gains after OPEC-led group seals deal to cut supply
  • How is the Geopo­lit­i­cal sta­bil­i­ty in the world?
    • Sau­di for­eign min­is­ter rules out extra­dit­ing sus­pects in Khashog­gi case
    • Six Israelis wound­ed in Pales­tin­ian shoot­ing attack: officials
    • Syr­i­an news agency removes report of Dam­as­cus air attack
    • Yemen war­ring par­ties hold first direct meet­ing of Swe­den peace talks
      • Iran­ian-aligned Houthi group and the gov­ern­ment of Pres­i­dent Abd-Rab­bu Man­sour Hadi which is backed by a Sau­di-led mil­i­tary coalition
    • Iran said to hold Aus­tralian-based aca­d­e­m­ic on ‘infil­tra­tion’ charge
      • Aya­tol­lah Ali Khamenei issued an edict in 2014 call­ing for a pop­u­la­tion increase after decades of state-pro­mot­ed birth control
      • Khamenei called for greater efforts to com­bat ene­my “infil­tra­tion” as ten­sions esca­lat­ed with the Unit­ed States after Wash­ing­ton with­drew from a land­mark nuclear deal and reim­posed sanc­tions on Iran
    • Bahrain crit­i­cizes Qatar emir for not attend­ing Gulf Arab summit
      • The meet­ing may touch on oil pol­i­tics and a diplo­mat­ic and eco­nom­ic boy­cott imposed on Qatar by Sau­di Ara­bia, the UAE, Bahrain and non-GCC mem­ber Egypt since June 2017 over alle­ga­tions it sup­ports ter­ror­ism. Doha denies the charges and says the boy­cott aims to cur­tail its sovereignty.

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

WeekMon­dayTues­dayWednes­dayThurs­dayFri­dayWeek
11/26 — 11/3012/03/201812/04/201812/05/201812/06/201812/07/201812/3 — 12/7
High52.52553.8354.53754.4253.2854.254.537
Low49.38550.55552.40552.12550.05550.5750.055
Close50.55553.0652.5752.9151.69452.2152.21
Pip move314327.5213.2229.5322.5363448.2
PP50.82252.48253.17153.15251.67652.32752.267
R152.25954.40953.93754.17953.29754.08454.479
R253.96255.75755.30355.44754.90155.95756.749
S149.11951.13451.80551.88450.07250.45449.997
S247.68249.20751.03950.85748.45148.69747.785
TV1,008,709211,252141,633102,902351,292376,9981,436,979
  • What can we tell from the PP lev­els? Where are the high­er time frame S/R lev­els? What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
    • The week­ly piv­ot point shows us that most week we have been trad­ing around this point after we gapped up last Mon­day mov­ing away from the 50.80 lev­el of the pre­vi­ous week
    • With high­est and low­est lev­els respec­tive­ly being 54.40 and 50
      • How far is the mar­ket from impor­tant tech­ni­cal levels?
        • When we look at his­tor­i­cal lev­els of sup­port and resis­tance we can see that 53.75 is a resis­tance lev­el to keep an eye on
          • On the sup­port side we have the 50.50 level
        • On the 4H chart we can see that 52.50 is a lev­el of poten­tial resis­tance as well since we ducked back under­neath it at the end of the NY session
        • Since we just closed the week at 52.21 we are very close to the 4H resis­tance lev­el of 52.50 so on Mon­day we could be first rang­ing at these lev­els since we are only 30 ticks away from this resis­tance level
        • But on the down­side we are 200 ticks away so more space to the down­side which could mean we will first make a move down­wards before load­ing up for a poten­tial BO, if any
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • At the begin­ning of the ses­sion we bounced off the 52.25 lev­el and found tem­po­rary resis­tance at 52.80 for now
    • We are still walk­ing the low­er band of the 30M VWAP 1.0/1.5 SD which is also just above the mid­dle of the KC
  • ATR
    • What is the ATR on the daily?
      • Is it increasing/decreasing?
        • We are still very high at 2.572 but seem to have tak­ing a lit­tle breather

Trade Plan

  • I am not trad­ing today but this is the trad­ing plan if I would
  • We are now around the 52.50 area still in the upper half of the range we have been in since last week’s gap up after a long decline but we would have to see if this lev­el holds up as support
    • Also the 30M shows that we have entered a squeeze but not sure how long that would last so we could be look­ing for anoth­er round of volatil­i­ty break­ing the 30M VWAP mean
    • I will look for short­ing oppor­tu­ni­ties if we BD from the 52.50 lev­el but the AS has still held up as sup­port so let’s wait and see.
      • Short­ing oppor­tu­ni­ties in the form of a pull­back off this level
    • Tar­get would be at the next sup­port lev­el of 51 and that would be a nice drop
    • If we hold up the 52.50 lev­el I will look for a pos­si­ble fake to the down­side into over­sold ter­ri­to­ry on the 5M and place a swing rever­sal trade off that lev­el and ride it to the swing high at poten­tial­ly 52.80

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Observe PA when­ev­er I can from on the road
  • Look for poten­tial swing trad­ing oppor­tu­ni­ties for my Play­Book but not take any trades since I am also not as fit and focused as I’d like to be

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • At Lon­don open we imme­di­ate­ly start­ed with some inde­ci­sion and then start­ed test­ing the 52.50 lev­el and reject­ing the 52.80
    • Ini­tial­ly thought I could play this with a rang­ing set­up buy­ing the lows and sell­ing the highs but I found out that because of the high-paced some­what errat­ic behav­ior I’d have to put my stops way wider than I would usual
      • One way is to base it off the ATR so I will have a look at that lat­er to fig­ure out how to use this method
    • The 30M VWAP chart shows that we are in a range but PA is more and more hit­ting the low­er and upper SDs
    • Looks like we are still in price dis­cov­ery mode how­ev­er we didn’t have much of a rejec­tion of the 52.80 lev­el as we had the first swing up after the open
    • After reject­ing the 52.80 again we dropped through the 52.50 and then dropped to the 52.25 lev­el and had a peri­od of con­sol­i­da­tion, after which we BD and dropped as far as the 51.80 level
    • Here we have full bod­ied can­dles form­ing (which is also the 30M LKC lev­el) which could mean we will have a rever­sal but it is more like­ly we will have anoth­er drop till as far as the 51 lev­el, unless we break the 13MA on the 5M
      • We did cross the 5 and 8
    • We did cross the 13MA and even the 5M VWAP mean and might pos­si­bly break the LKC
      • But I think a rejec­tion we could pos­si­bly reject this lev­el of 52 and CAR
    • T1: I took a very small short posi­tion and net­ted 13 pips profit
    • It looks like we are enter­ing anoth­er peri­od of low­er volatility
      • PA has slowed down and MAs look flat plus the VWAP SDs are retract­ing and pulled back to hug PA again
        • Could be the qui­et before the storm per­haps before we make anoth­er leg
    • We did make a move but to the upside and broke all MAs and have entered the KC again
    • 14:20: We made a swing high and then returned to the 52 lev­el LKC and it looks pos­si­ble that we will BD from this level
    • We dropped till 51.80 again and then the bulls pushed hard back over the 52 lev­el, so per­haps no BD
    • NY is about the open in 10 min­utes so we can expect more liq­uid­i­ty pre-mar­ket trad­ing but I am done for today and gonna upload this and take a rest

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • After BD we pulled back to the 52 lev­el and we had a doji can­dle at that very lev­el so I thought this could be anoth­er leg down
      • Entry   
        • 52.039
    • SL
      • 52.116 just above the upper wick of the doji at the 52 CAR level
    • TP
      • 51. 543
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I quick­ly cov­ered since PA was very slow and a quick drop in price didn’t fol­low which made me hes­i­tant to stay in the trade. All in all I’m hap­py I took the chance even though I said I wouldn’t. But I was sit­ting in the car watch­ing the chart and thought it was a good oppor­tu­ni­ty. I did take an extra small posi­tion and very tight SL in case I was wrong
        • Cov­ered at 51.906 which net­ter me about 13 pips
  • T2
    • NOT TAKEN
  • T3
    • NOT TAKEN
  • T4
    • NOT TAKEN

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • I man­u­al­ly cov­ered my trade because I was glad pock­et­ing some­thing after I had ini­tial­ly said I wasn’t gonna take a trade. Then again I didn’t think I’d have the time to watch the chart live.
    • Best case sce­nario I should have let the trade play out and not cov­ered until PA crossed the 13MA or oth­er fac­tors came to play
    • Still prof­it of 13 pips
    • I am think­ing of just focussing on pock­et­ing 10 pips at a time and per­haps use that to build into my strat­e­gy but I would need to know first wat my hit rate is and I haven’t had enough trades under my belt yet (with this par­tic­u­lar setup).

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Observe PA when­ev­er I can from on the road
    • I did great look­ing as much as I could on my phone and lap­top. Even think­ing how peo­ple stare at their phones play­ing a game I am some­what play­ing a game as well. Per­haps some would say that’s not the best com­par­i­son to make with trad­ing but if it works for me it works for me.
  • Look for poten­tial swing trad­ing oppor­tu­ni­ties for my Play­Book but not take any trades since I am also not as fit and focused as I’d like to be
    • I haven’t paid too much atten­tion on this to be honest

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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