
10 Dec 12102018 Trade Plan — Road Trip trading
12102018 Trade Plan — Road Trip Trading
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday | Monday |
12/03/2018 | 12/04/2018 | 12/05/2018 | 12/06/2018 | 12/07/2018 | 12/08/2018 | 12/09/2018 | 12/10/2018 | |
Beers night before | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 finger whiskey | 1 finger whiskey | 6 | 4 | 12 |
Hours sleep | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8 | 5 |
Sleep well? | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Gratitude | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Coffees today | 1 | 2 espressos | 1 espresso | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1.5 coffee |
no | ||||||||
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 |
Vitamins | yes | no | yes | yes | yes | yes | no | no |
Time bed yesterday | 00:00 | 11:00 | 11:00 | 11:00 | 11:00 | 01:00 | 03:00 | 04:00 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- Last two days didn’t sleep too well because of staying up too late. Yesterday I went on a trip with friends and we had a great time with a bit too much too drink so if I would be trading today I would definitely be extra cautious but sadly I won’t be trading today. However, I will check the charts whenever I can. The reason I won’t be trading is that we are still on our trip. I won’t be driving so I can work on trading from the backseat.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- Actually, I feel good but that’s because I feel happy having a great time but I’m definitely tired so I’m gonna give it a 2.
The Big Picture (daily)
- Check my weekly big picture post I wrote yesterday here at :
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- The API report will be released on Tuesday 4:30 AM E.T.
- EIA report
- Some of the EIA report will be released Wednesday at 10:30 AM E.T. and the rest at 1 PM E.T.
- What are the headlines of today?
- Russia will need months to implement the cuts agreed upon in the OPEC+ meeting
- Oil extends gains after OPEC-led group seals deal to cut supply
- How is the Geopolitical stability in the world?
- Saudi foreign minister rules out extraditing suspects in Khashoggi case
- Six Israelis wounded in Palestinian shooting attack: officials
- Syrian news agency removes report of Damascus air attack
- Yemen warring parties hold first direct meeting of Sweden peace talks
- Iranian-aligned Houthi group and the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi which is backed by a Saudi-led military coalition
- Iran said to hold Australian-based academic on ‘infiltration’ charge
- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued an edict in 2014 calling for a population increase after decades of state-promoted birth control
- Khamenei called for greater efforts to combat enemy “infiltration” as tensions escalated with the United States after Washington withdrew from a landmark nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions on Iran
- Bahrain criticizes Qatar emir for not attending Gulf Arab summit
- The meeting may touch on oil politics and a diplomatic and economic boycott imposed on Qatar by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and non-GCC member Egypt since June 2017 over allegations it supports terrorism. Doha denies the charges and says the boycott aims to curtail its sovereignty.
Intraday Technical Analysis
Week | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Week | |
11/26 — 11/30 | 12/03/2018 | 12/04/2018 | 12/05/2018 | 12/06/2018 | 12/07/2018 | 12/3 — 12/7 | |
High | 52.525 | 53.83 | 54.537 | 54.42 | 53.28 | 54.2 | 54.537 |
Low | 49.385 | 50.555 | 52.405 | 52.125 | 50.055 | 50.57 | 50.055 |
Close | 50.555 | 53.06 | 52.57 | 52.91 | 51.694 | 52.21 | 52.21 |
Pip move | 314 | 327.5 | 213.2 | 229.5 | 322.5 | 363 | 448.2 |
PP | 50.822 | 52.482 | 53.171 | 53.152 | 51.676 | 52.327 | 52.267 |
R1 | 52.259 | 54.409 | 53.937 | 54.179 | 53.297 | 54.084 | 54.479 |
R2 | 53.962 | 55.757 | 55.303 | 55.447 | 54.901 | 55.957 | 56.749 |
S1 | 49.119 | 51.134 | 51.805 | 51.884 | 50.072 | 50.454 | 49.997 |
S2 | 47.682 | 49.207 | 51.039 | 50.857 | 48.451 | 48.697 | 47.785 |
TV | 1,008,709 | 211,252 | 141,633 | 102,902 | 351,292 | 376,998 | 1,436,979 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels? Where are the higher time frame S/R levels? What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- The weekly pivot point shows us that most week we have been trading around this point after we gapped up last Monday moving away from the 50.80 level of the previous week
- With highest and lowest levels respectively being 54.40 and 50
- How far is the market from important technical levels?
- When we look at historical levels of support and resistance we can see that 53.75 is a resistance level to keep an eye on
- On the support side we have the 50.50 level
- On the 4H chart we can see that 52.50 is a level of potential resistance as well since we ducked back underneath it at the end of the NY session
- Since we just closed the week at 52.21 we are very close to the 4H resistance level of 52.50 so on Monday we could be first ranging at these levels since we are only 30 ticks away from this resistance level
- But on the downside we are 200 ticks away so more space to the downside which could mean we will first make a move downwards before loading up for a potential BO, if any
- When we look at historical levels of support and resistance we can see that 53.75 is a resistance level to keep an eye on
- How far is the market from important technical levels?
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- At the beginning of the session we bounced off the 52.25 level and found temporary resistance at 52.80 for now
- We are still walking the lower band of the 30M VWAP 1.0/1.5 SD which is also just above the middle of the KC
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- We are still very high at 2.572 but seem to have taking a little breather
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- I am not trading today but this is the trading plan if I would
- We are now around the 52.50 area still in the upper half of the range we have been in since last week’s gap up after a long decline but we would have to see if this level holds up as support
- Also the 30M shows that we have entered a squeeze but not sure how long that would last so we could be looking for another round of volatility breaking the 30M VWAP mean
- I will look for shorting opportunities if we BD from the 52.50 level but the AS has still held up as support so let’s wait and see.
- Shorting opportunities in the form of a pullback off this level
- Target would be at the next support level of 51 and that would be a nice drop
- If we hold up the 52.50 level I will look for a possible fake to the downside into oversold territory on the 5M and place a swing reversal trade off that level and ride it to the swing high at potentially 52.80
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Observe PA whenever I can from on the road
- Look for potential swing trading opportunities for my PlayBook but not take any trades since I am also not as fit and focused as I’d like to be
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- At London open we immediately started with some indecision and then started testing the 52.50 level and rejecting the 52.80
- Initially thought I could play this with a ranging setup buying the lows and selling the highs but I found out that because of the high-paced somewhat erratic behavior I’d have to put my stops way wider than I would usual
- One way is to base it off the ATR so I will have a look at that later to figure out how to use this method
- The 30M VWAP chart shows that we are in a range but PA is more and more hitting the lower and upper SDs
- Looks like we are still in price discovery mode however we didn’t have much of a rejection of the 52.80 level as we had the first swing up after the open
- After rejecting the 52.80 again we dropped through the 52.50 and then dropped to the 52.25 level and had a period of consolidation, after which we BD and dropped as far as the 51.80 level
- Here we have full bodied candles forming (which is also the 30M LKC level) which could mean we will have a reversal but it is more likely we will have another drop till as far as the 51 level, unless we break the 13MA on the 5M
- We did cross the 5 and 8
- We did cross the 13MA and even the 5M VWAP mean and might possibly break the LKC
- But I think a rejection we could possibly reject this level of 52 and CAR
- T1: I took a very small short position and netted 13 pips profit
- It looks like we are entering another period of lower volatility
- PA has slowed down and MAs look flat plus the VWAP SDs are retracting and pulled back to hug PA again
- Could be the quiet before the storm perhaps before we make another leg
- PA has slowed down and MAs look flat plus the VWAP SDs are retracting and pulled back to hug PA again
- We did make a move but to the upside and broke all MAs and have entered the KC again
- 14:20: We made a swing high and then returned to the 52 level LKC and it looks possible that we will BD from this level
- We dropped till 51.80 again and then the bulls pushed hard back over the 52 level, so perhaps no BD
- NY is about the open in 10 minutes so we can expect more liquidity pre-market trading but I am done for today and gonna upload this and take a rest
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- After BD we pulled back to the 52 level and we had a doji candle at that very level so I thought this could be another leg down
- Entry
- 52.039
- SL
- 52.116 just above the upper wick of the doji at the 52 CAR level
- TP
- 51. 543
- Trade Management
- I quickly covered since PA was very slow and a quick drop in price didn’t follow which made me hesitant to stay in the trade. All in all I’m happy I took the chance even though I said I wouldn’t. But I was sitting in the car watching the chart and thought it was a good opportunity. I did take an extra small position and very tight SL in case I was wrong
- Covered at 51.906 which netter me about 13 pips
- I quickly covered since PA was very slow and a quick drop in price didn’t follow which made me hesitant to stay in the trade. All in all I’m happy I took the chance even though I said I wouldn’t. But I was sitting in the car watching the chart and thought it was a good opportunity. I did take an extra small position and very tight SL in case I was wrong
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- NOT TAKEN
- T3
- NOT TAKEN
- T4
- NOT TAKEN
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- I manually covered my trade because I was glad pocketing something after I had initially said I wasn’t gonna take a trade. Then again I didn’t think I’d have the time to watch the chart live.
- Best case scenario I should have let the trade play out and not covered until PA crossed the 13MA or other factors came to play
- Still profit of 13 pips
- I am thinking of just focussing on pocketing 10 pips at a time and perhaps use that to build into my strategy but I would need to know first wat my hit rate is and I haven’t had enough trades under my belt yet (with this particular setup).
Daily Report Card
- Observe PA whenever I can from on the road
- I did great looking as much as I could on my phone and laptop. Even thinking how people stare at their phones playing a game I am somewhat playing a game as well. Perhaps some would say that’s not the best comparison to make with trading but if it works for me it works for me.
- Look for potential swing trading opportunities for my PlayBook but not take any trades since I am also not as fit and focused as I’d like to be
- I haven’t paid too much attention on this to be honest
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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