12112018 Trade Plan — Tired after road trip but still stayed composed

11 Dec 12112018 Trade Plan — Tired after road trip but still stayed composed

12112018 Trade Plan — Tired after road trip but still stayed composed

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Tues­day	Wednes­day	Thurs­day	Fri­day	Sat­ur­day	Sun­day	Mon­day	Tues­day
12/04/2018	12/05/2018	12/06/2018	12/07/2018	12/08/2018	12/09/2018	12/10/2018	12/11/2018
Beers night before	0	0	1 fin­ger whiskey	1 fin­ger whiskey	6	4	12	1
Hours sleep	8	8	8	7.5	7.5	8	5	9
Sleep well?	3	2	3	3	3	3	1	2
Mela­tonin	0.5	0	0	0.25	0	0	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	3
Exer­cise yester(to)day	1	1	1	2	1	1	2	2
Grat­i­tude	4	4	5	5	4	5	5	5
Joy	4	4	5	5	4	5	5	5
Anger	1	1	2	1	2	1	1	1
Fear	1	1	2	1	2	1	1	1
Focus	3	3	3	4	2	3	2	1
Cof­fees today	2 espres­sos	1 espres­so	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1.5 cof­fee	0
no	no
Water 2.2L bottles	2	2	2	2	2	1.5	1	1
Vit­a­mins	no	yes	yes	yes	yes	no	no	yes
Time bed yesterday	11:00	11:00	11:00	11:00	01:00	03:00	04:00	11:00

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • I’m just a bit tired since I went on a road­trip and drank too much and didn’t get enough rest so I will def­i­nite­ly feel that for anoth­er day or two.
  • I am def­i­nite­ly tired and should take extra cau­tion today
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yesterday?
  • Yes­ter­day we dropped low­er even though there was bull­ish news last week but the mar­ket doesn’t seem to agree just yet
    • We bounced off of the 50.80 and today we are reject­ed that same lev­el after London’s open
• What is the mar­ket sentiment?
  • What does the crowd think?
    • Accord­ing to investing.com
      • Accord­ing to investing.com today
        • All sen­ti­ments is 58% bullish
        • Last week 63% bullish
        • Last 3 days 65% bullish
      • We slight­ly increased in bull­ish sen­ti­ment in the last 3 days 
• EURUSD
  • Yesterday’s range 1.131 to 1.142
  • We dropped 17% in long positioning
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed EURUSD trad­ing bias.
    • Mixed bias
• Gold
  • Accord­ing to IG client sentiment
    • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 76.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.26 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 1.8% low­er than yes­ter­day and 5.5% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 7.6% low­er than yes­ter­day and 17.8% high­er from last week.
    • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed Spot Gold trad­ing bias.
• Geopol­i­tics
  • EU offers new Brex­it deal clar­i­ty, won’t rene­go­ti­ate: Juncker
  • UK Cryp­to Exchanges Pose Low Mon­ey Laun­der­ing Risk, Says Glob­al Watchdog
    • Anoth­er step for cryptos
  • Japan­ese Leg­is­la­tor Defends Cryp­to Users
    • And anoth­er
  • Iran says it recent­ly test­ed a bal­lis­tic missile
  • ECB wins court’s back­ing for bond-pur­chase program
    • The Court of Jus­tice of the Euro­pean Union reject­ed argu­ments that the ECB was effec­tive­ly bankrolling gov­ern­ments with its 2.1 tril­lion-euro ($2.39 tril­lion) Pub­lic-Sec­tor Pur­chase Pro­gramme (PSPP), which is expect­ed to stop at the end of this month.
  • IMF warns storms clouds gath­er­ing for glob­al economy
  • Maduro Wins Local Elec­tions Amid Vot­er Apa­thy In Rag­ing Crisis

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • I’ll be ready for it tomor­row morn­ing when it’s released
• EIA report
  • I’ll see the effects of this report on Thurs­day morn­ing when I wake up
• What are the head­lines of today?
  • China’s Crude Oil Imports Jump To New Record High In November
  • Sau­di Ara­bia To Cut Oil Exports By 1 Mil­lion Bpd Next Month
  • Houthis Accuse Sau­di Coali­tion Of Block­ing Oil Ships From Yemen’s Ports
  • Mor­gan Stan­ley Slash­es Oil Price Fore­cast For 2019
    • Mor­gan Stan­ley has cut its Brent crude price fore­cast for 2019 by US$10 a bar­rel to US$68.50 in the lat­est sign yet that the OPEC+ pro­duc­tion cuts announced after a tense series of meet­ings might fail to impress an already super volatile market.
  • Libya Faces Oil Dis­as­ter As Biggest Field Stops Pumping
    • Libya is fac­ing a major oil cri­sis as a group com­pris­ing local tribes­men and mem­bers of the field’s secu­ri­ty guard seized the largest field in the coun­try, Sharara.
  • Asian Oil Futures Point To High­er Crude Prices
    • Before last week, the close­ly linked crude oil and LNG mar­kets in Asia were in oppo­site sit­u­a­tions, despite the fact that sup­ply is cur­rent­ly out­strip­ping demand for both com­modi­ties. The futures price curves of oil and LNG have recent­ly flipped, with prices for oil point­ing to high­er prices fur­ther out in the future, while the LNG price curve point­ed to low­er prices in the future com­pared to those for imme­di­ate delivery.
  • U.S. Ener­gy Sec­re­tary Per­ry To Saud­is: We Want Sta­ble Sup­ply And Prices
  • OPEC+ Deal To Be Forged In March
    • The agree­ment will be offi­cial­ly signed in March in Sau­di Ara­bia, the oil min­is­ter said, and will seek to align OPEC with non-OPEC oil pro­duc­ers, most impor­tant­ly Rus­sia, on mat­ters like­ly to include achiev­ing mar­ket balance—specifically pro­duc­tion quo­tas. The term “mar­ket bal­ance” is the new phrase OPEC is using instead of ref­er­enc­ing spe­cif­ic oil prices, after OPEC in Octo­ber steered its mem­bers away from any words that may put it at odds with pro­posed U.S. leg­is­la­tion called the NOPEC Act.
    • Oil prices ticked upward on Fri­day, but failed to stay up on Mon­day, even as OPEC mem­ber Libya, exempt from the most recent pro­duc­tion cut deal, declared a force majeure on Mon­day as protests hit the nation’s belea­guered oil indus­try, shut­ting in pro­duc­tion of its biggest oil­field, Sharara.

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

Mon­day	Tues­day	Wednes­day	Thurs­day	Fri­day	Week	Mon­day
12/03/2018	12/04/2018	12/05/2018	12/06/2018	12/07/2018	12/3 — 12/7	12/10/2018
High	53.83	54.537	54.42	53.28	54.2	54.537	52.78
Low	50.555	52.405	52.125	50.055	50.57	50.055	50.5
Close	53.06	52.57	52.91	51.694	52.21	52.21	50.871
Pip move	327.5	213.2	229.5	322.5	363	448.2	228
PP	52.482	53.171	53.152	51.676	52.327	52.267	51.384
R1	54.409	53.937	54.179	53.297	54.084	54.479	52.268
R2	55.757	55.303	55.447	54.901	55.957	56.749	53.664
S1	51.134	51.805	51.884	50.072	50.454	49.997	49.988
S2	49.207	51.039	50.857	48.451	48.697	47.785	49.104
TV	211,252	141,633	102,902	351,292	376,998	1,436,979	213,946

• What can we tell from the PP levels?
  • We are back into the 51 levels
• Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
  • On the high­er time frames we can see sup­port at 49.50 and resis­tance at 52.75
• What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
  • The 4H chart shows that we have a sup­port lev­el at the 50.50 mark
    • And resis­tance at the 52.50 mark
• What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
  • Dur­ing the AS we con­tin­ued bounc­ing off of the 50.80 lev­el and found tem­po­rary resis­tance at the 30M VWAP mean
  • Before Lon­don opened we were try­ing to make a HL above the 50.80 lev­el which we suc­ceed­ed in dop­ing with Lon­don open
• ATR
  • What is the ATR on the daily?
    • Is it increasing/decreasing?
      • 2.4577
      • We are decreas­ing so that could be an indi­ca­tor that the mar­ket is ready for anoth­er trend­ing phase, unsure yet if up or down

Trade Plan

• I’m going to be extra care­ful today
• I will be look­ing for a rever­sal at DPP 51.384 if there is one, if not per­haps a con­tin­u­a­tion of the uptrend break­ing that lev­el in the form of a pull­back to this level
• If we can’t hold it I will short the way down to per­haps the 50.80 lev­el again

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Only take 4 trades
• Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze)
• Only trade what you see

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • On the 30M chart we saw a rejec­tion of the 50.80 lev­el and thus cre­at­ed sup­port there
  • We then shot up through the DPP at 51.384 which also coin­cides with the 30M 50MA giv­ing resis­tance still but we might actu­al­ly break this level
  • We then had a pull­back to the 30M 50MA and 5M UKC at the 51.50 level
  • The mar­ket seems rather slow today and as soon as I said this we shot up
    • Next resis­tance would be at the 52 level
  • We seem to have halt­ed at the 51.80 to make a pull­back and we remained at the same level
    • There is one rejec­tion can­dle of the 51.80 lev­el but no clear sign that we are going back down and NY is about to open so I am done for today. Bet­ter day tomorrow.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal
      • Below the LKC and at the 2.0 SD plus we had reject­ed the 50.80 lev­el before dur­ing the NY ses­sion clos­ing hours before AS opened
      • Entry
        • 50.917
  • SL
    • I put the stop very tight under the low­est wick of the drop to the 50.80 level
    • SL
      • 50.861
  • TP
    • Hadn’t set a TP
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • This trade only last­ed 13 sec­onds and got stopped out before I could set a TP
    • The trade then went into my direc­tion and I took anoth­er position
    • Lost 6 pips

• T2
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal
      • Same rea­sons as the first trade
      • Entry
        • 50.991
  • SL
    • 50.943
  • TP
    • 51.183
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I cov­ered quick­ly at the 5M VWAP mean at a 8 tick profit

• T3
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Swing Rever­sal
    • We had bro­ken out of the UKC and reached over­bought on the VWAP 2.0 SD
    • We then made a 2nd bear­ish can­dle reject­ing the 51.60 so I short­ed and put a tight stop
    • Entry
      • 51.586
  • SL
    • 51.631
  • TP
    • 51.420
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • I got tak­en out and after­wards price did go in my way and I was think­ing to take anoth­er trade but hesitated
    • Lost 4 ticks

• T4
  • NOT TAKEN

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
  • 2 got stopped out and the one I cov­ered myself at a crit­i­cal lev­el. The whole time I was talk­ing neg­a­tive­ly about myself for why I am so tired and I should change this etc. but I have made so much progress and I deserve to go on trips with­out feel­ing bad about it. There will always be anoth­er day of trad­ing oppor­tu­ni­ties. We live in world of abundance

Dai­ly Report Card

• Only take 4 trades
  • I only took 3 of which 2 was actu­al­ly one trad­ing opportunity
• Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze)
  • I did stick to my PB setups
• Only trade what you see
  • I did this too but my tim­ing was off and got stopped out. Prob­a­bly due to me being so tired. Tomor­row is anoth­er day.

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.