
11 Dec 12112018 Trade Plan — Tired after road trip but still stayed composed
12112018 Trade Plan — Tired after road trip but still stayed composed
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday |
12/04/2018 | 12/05/2018 | 12/06/2018 | 12/07/2018 | 12/08/2018 | 12/09/2018 | 12/10/2018 | 12/11/2018 | |
Beers night before | 0 | 0 | 1 finger whiskey | 1 finger whiskey | 6 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
Hours sleep | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
Sleep well? | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Melatonin | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Gratitude | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Joy | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Anger | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Coffees today | 2 espressos | 1 espresso | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1.5 coffee | 0 |
no | no | |||||||
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
Vitamins | no | yes | yes | yes | yes | no | no | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 11:00 | 11:00 | 11:00 | 11:00 | 01:00 | 03:00 | 04:00 | 11:00 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- I’m just a bit tired since I went on a roadtrip and drank too much and didn’t get enough rest so I will definitely feel that for another day or two.
- I am definitely tired and should take extra caution today
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 2
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- Yesterday we dropped lower even though there was bullish news last week but the market doesn’t seem to agree just yet
- We bounced off of the 50.80 and today we are rejected that same level after London’s open
- Yesterday we dropped lower even though there was bullish news last week but the market doesn’t seem to agree just yet
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 58% bullish
- Last week 63% bullish
- Last 3 days 65% bullish
- We slightly increased in bullish sentiment in the last 3 days
- According to investing.com today
- According to investing.com
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- Yesterday’s range 1.131 to 1.142
- We dropped 17% in long positioning
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
- Mixed bias
- Gold
- According to IG client sentiment
- Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 76.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.26 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.8% lower than yesterday and 5.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.6% lower than yesterday and 17.8% higher from last week.
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias.
- According to IG client sentiment
- Geopolitics
- EU offers new Brexit deal clarity, won’t renegotiate: Juncker
- UK Crypto Exchanges Pose Low Money Laundering Risk, Says Global Watchdog
- Another step for cryptos
- Japanese Legislator Defends Crypto Users
- And another
- Iran says it recently tested a ballistic missile
- ECB wins court’s backing for bond-purchase program
- The Court of Justice of the European Union rejected arguments that the ECB was effectively bankrolling governments with its 2.1 trillion-euro ($2.39 trillion) Public-Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP), which is expected to stop at the end of this month.
- IMF warns storms clouds gathering for global economy
- Maduro Wins Local Elections Amid Voter Apathy In Raging Crisis
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- I’ll be ready for it tomorrow morning when it’s released
- EIA report
- I’ll see the effects of this report on Thursday morning when I wake up
- What are the headlines of today?
- China’s Crude Oil Imports Jump To New Record High In November
- Saudi Arabia To Cut Oil Exports By 1 Million Bpd Next Month
- Houthis Accuse Saudi Coalition Of Blocking Oil Ships From Yemen’s Ports
- Morgan Stanley Slashes Oil Price Forecast For 2019
- Morgan Stanley has cut its Brent crude price forecast for 2019 by US$10 a barrel to US$68.50 in the latest sign yet that the OPEC+ production cuts announced after a tense series of meetings might fail to impress an already super volatile market.
- Libya Faces Oil Disaster As Biggest Field Stops Pumping
- Libya is facing a major oil crisis as a group comprising local tribesmen and members of the field’s security guard seized the largest field in the country, Sharara.
- Asian Oil Futures Point To Higher Crude Prices
- Before last week, the closely linked crude oil and LNG markets in Asia were in opposite situations, despite the fact that supply is currently outstripping demand for both commodities. The futures price curves of oil and LNG have recently flipped, with prices for oil pointing to higher prices further out in the future, while the LNG price curve pointed to lower prices in the future compared to those for immediate delivery.
- U.S. Energy Secretary Perry To Saudis: We Want Stable Supply And Prices
- OPEC+ Deal To Be Forged In March
- The agreement will be officially signed in March in Saudi Arabia, the oil minister said, and will seek to align OPEC with non-OPEC oil producers, most importantly Russia, on matters likely to include achieving market balance—specifically production quotas. The term “market balance” is the new phrase OPEC is using instead of referencing specific oil prices, after OPEC in October steered its members away from any words that may put it at odds with proposed U.S. legislation called the NOPEC Act.
- Oil prices ticked upward on Friday, but failed to stay up on Monday, even as OPEC member Libya, exempt from the most recent production cut deal, declared a force majeure on Monday as protests hit the nation’s beleaguered oil industry, shutting in production of its biggest oilfield, Sharara.
Intraday Technical Analysis
Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Week | Monday | |
12/03/2018 | 12/04/2018 | 12/05/2018 | 12/06/2018 | 12/07/2018 | 12/3 — 12/7 | 12/10/2018 | |
High | 53.83 | 54.537 | 54.42 | 53.28 | 54.2 | 54.537 | 52.78 |
Low | 50.555 | 52.405 | 52.125 | 50.055 | 50.57 | 50.055 | 50.5 |
Close | 53.06 | 52.57 | 52.91 | 51.694 | 52.21 | 52.21 | 50.871 |
Pip move | 327.5 | 213.2 | 229.5 | 322.5 | 363 | 448.2 | 228 |
PP | 52.482 | 53.171 | 53.152 | 51.676 | 52.327 | 52.267 | 51.384 |
R1 | 54.409 | 53.937 | 54.179 | 53.297 | 54.084 | 54.479 | 52.268 |
R2 | 55.757 | 55.303 | 55.447 | 54.901 | 55.957 | 56.749 | 53.664 |
S1 | 51.134 | 51.805 | 51.884 | 50.072 | 50.454 | 49.997 | 49.988 |
S2 | 49.207 | 51.039 | 50.857 | 48.451 | 48.697 | 47.785 | 49.104 |
TV | 211,252 | 141,633 | 102,902 | 351,292 | 376,998 | 1,436,979 | 213,946 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- We are back into the 51 levels
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- On the higher time frames we can see support at 49.50 and resistance at 52.75
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- The 4H chart shows that we have a support level at the 50.50 mark
- And resistance at the 52.50 mark
- The 4H chart shows that we have a support level at the 50.50 mark
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- During the AS we continued bouncing off of the 50.80 level and found temporary resistance at the 30M VWAP mean
- Before London opened we were trying to make a HL above the 50.80 level which we succeeded in doping with London open
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- 2.4577
- We are decreasing so that could be an indicator that the market is ready for another trending phase, unsure yet if up or down
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- I’m going to be extra careful today
- I will be looking for a reversal at DPP 51.384 if there is one, if not perhaps a continuation of the uptrend breaking that level in the form of a pullback to this level
- If we can’t hold it I will short the way down to perhaps the 50.80 level again
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take 4 trades
- Only take PB setups (swing reversal, swing reversal with continuation, squeeze)
- Only trade what you see
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- On the 30M chart we saw a rejection of the 50.80 level and thus created support there
- We then shot up through the DPP at 51.384 which also coincides with the 30M 50MA giving resistance still but we might actually break this level
- We then had a pullback to the 30M 50MA and 5M UKC at the 51.50 level
- The market seems rather slow today and as soon as I said this we shot up
- Next resistance would be at the 52 level
- We seem to have halted at the 51.80 to make a pullback and we remained at the same level
- There is one rejection candle of the 51.80 level but no clear sign that we are going back down and NY is about to open so I am done for today. Better day tomorrow.
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal
- Below the LKC and at the 2.0 SD plus we had rejected the 50.80 level before during the NY session closing hours before AS opened
- Entry
- 50.917
- Swing Reversal
- SL
- I put the stop very tight under the lowest wick of the drop to the 50.80 level
- SL
- 50.861
- TP
- Hadn’t set a TP
- Trade Management
- This trade only lasted 13 seconds and got stopped out before I could set a TP
- The trade then went into my direction and I took another position
- Lost 6 pips
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal
- Same reasons as the first trade
- Entry
- 50.991
- Swing Reversal
- SL
- 50.943
- TP
- 51.183
- Trade Management
- I covered quickly at the 5M VWAP mean at a 8 tick profit
- Why? What do I see?
- T3
- Why? What do I see?
- Swing Reversal
- We had broken out of the UKC and reached overbought on the VWAP 2.0 SD
- We then made a 2nd bearish candle rejecting the 51.60 so I shorted and put a tight stop
- Entry
- 51.586
- SL
- 51.631
- TP
- 51.420
- Trade Management
- I got taken out and afterwards price did go in my way and I was thinking to take another trade but hesitated
- Lost 4 ticks
- Why? What do I see?
- T4
- NOT TAKEN
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
- 2 got stopped out and the one I covered myself at a critical level. The whole time I was talking negatively about myself for why I am so tired and I should change this etc. but I have made so much progress and I deserve to go on trips without feeling bad about it. There will always be another day of trading opportunities. We live in world of abundance
Daily Report Card
- Only take 4 trades
- I only took 3 of which 2 was actually one trading opportunity
- Only take PB setups (swing reversal, swing reversal with continuation, squeeze)
- I did stick to my PB setups
- Only trade what you see
- I did this too but my timing was off and got stopped out. Probably due to me being so tired. Tomorrow is another day.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
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