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12112018 Trade Plan — Tired after road trip but still stayed composed

Daily Report Card

12112018 Trade Plan — Tired after road trip but still stayed composed

12112018 Trade Plan — Tired after road trip but still stayed composed

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeTues­dayWednes­dayThurs­dayFri­daySat­ur­daySun­dayMon­dayTues­day
Beers night before001 fin­ger whiskey1 fin­ger whiskey64121
Hours sleep8887.57.5859
Sleep well?32333312
Neg­a­tive thoughts?22222123
Exer­cise yester(to)day11121122
Cof­fees today2 espres­sos1 espres­so1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1.5 cof­fee0
Water 2.2L bottles222221.511
Time bed yesterday11:0011:0011:0011:0001:0003:0004:0011:00

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I’m just a bit tired since I went on a road­trip and drank too much and didn’t get enough rest so I will def­i­nite­ly feel that for anoth­er day or two.
    • I am def­i­nite­ly tired and should take extra cau­tion today
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • Yes­ter­day we dropped low­er even though there was bull­ish news last week but the mar­ket doesn’t seem to agree just yet
      • We bounced off of the 50.80 and today we are reject­ed that same lev­el after London’s open
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • What does the crowd think?
      • Accord­ing to
        • Accord­ing to today
          • All sen­ti­ments is 58% bullish
          • Last week 63% bullish
          • Last 3 days 65% bullish
        • We slight­ly increased in bull­ish sen­ti­ment in the last 3 days 
    • Yesterday’s range 1.131 to 1.142
    • We dropped 17% in long positioning
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed EURUSD trad­ing bias.
      • Mixed bias
  • Gold
    • Accord­ing to IG client sentiment
      • Spot Gold: Retail trad­er data shows 76.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.26 to 1. The num­ber of traders net-long is 1.8% low­er than yes­ter­day and 5.5% low­er from last week, while the num­ber of traders net-short is 7.6% low­er than yes­ter­day and 17.8% high­er from last week.
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed Spot Gold trad­ing bias.
  • Geopol­i­tics
    • EU offers new Brex­it deal clar­i­ty, won’t rene­go­ti­ate: Juncker
    • UK Cryp­to Exchanges Pose Low Mon­ey Laun­der­ing Risk, Says Glob­al Watchdog
      • Anoth­er step for cryptos
    • Japan­ese Leg­is­la­tor Defends Cryp­to Users
      • And anoth­er
    • Iran says it recent­ly test­ed a bal­lis­tic missile
    • ECB wins court’s back­ing for bond-pur­chase program
      • The Court of Jus­tice of the Euro­pean Union reject­ed argu­ments that the ECB was effec­tive­ly bankrolling gov­ern­ments with its 2.1 tril­lion-euro ($2.39 tril­lion) Pub­lic-Sec­tor Pur­chase Pro­gramme (PSPP), which is expect­ed to stop at the end of this month.
    • IMF warns storms clouds gath­er­ing for glob­al economy
    • Maduro Wins Local Elec­tions Amid Vot­er Apa­thy In Rag­ing Crisis

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • I’ll be ready for it tomor­row morn­ing when it’s released
  • EIA report
    • I’ll see the effects of this report on Thurs­day morn­ing when I wake up
  • What are the head­lines of today?
    • China’s Crude Oil Imports Jump To New Record High In November
    • Sau­di Ara­bia To Cut Oil Exports By 1 Mil­lion Bpd Next Month
    • Houthis Accuse Sau­di Coali­tion Of Block­ing Oil Ships From Yemen’s Ports
    • Mor­gan Stan­ley Slash­es Oil Price Fore­cast For 2019
      • Mor­gan Stan­ley has cut its Brent crude price fore­cast for 2019 by US$10 a bar­rel to US$68.50 in the lat­est sign yet that the OPEC+ pro­duc­tion cuts announced after a tense series of meet­ings might fail to impress an already super volatile market.
    • Libya Faces Oil Dis­as­ter As Biggest Field Stops Pumping
      • Libya is fac­ing a major oil cri­sis as a group com­pris­ing local tribes­men and mem­bers of the field’s secu­ri­ty guard seized the largest field in the coun­try, Sharara.
    • Asian Oil Futures Point To High­er Crude Prices
      • Before last week, the close­ly linked crude oil and LNG mar­kets in Asia were in oppo­site sit­u­a­tions, despite the fact that sup­ply is cur­rent­ly out­strip­ping demand for both com­modi­ties. The futures price curves of oil and LNG have recent­ly flipped, with prices for oil point­ing to high­er prices fur­ther out in the future, while the LNG price curve point­ed to low­er prices in the future com­pared to those for imme­di­ate delivery.
    • U.S. Ener­gy Sec­re­tary Per­ry To Saud­is: We Want Sta­ble Sup­ply And Prices
    • OPEC+ Deal To Be Forged In March
      • The agree­ment will be offi­cial­ly signed in March in Sau­di Ara­bia, the oil min­is­ter said, and will seek to align OPEC with non-OPEC oil pro­duc­ers, most impor­tant­ly Rus­sia, on mat­ters like­ly to include achiev­ing mar­ket balance—specifically pro­duc­tion quo­tas. The term “mar­ket bal­ance” is the new phrase OPEC is using instead of ref­er­enc­ing spe­cif­ic oil prices, after OPEC in Octo­ber steered its mem­bers away from any words that may put it at odds with pro­posed U.S. leg­is­la­tion called the NOPEC Act.
      • Oil prices ticked upward on Fri­day, but failed to stay up on Mon­day, even as OPEC mem­ber Libya, exempt from the most recent pro­duc­tion cut deal, declared a force majeure on Mon­day as protests hit the nation’s belea­guered oil indus­try, shut­ting in pro­duc­tion of its biggest oil­field, Sharara.

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

12/03/201812/04/201812/05/201812/06/201812/07/201812/3 — 12/712/10/2018
Pip move327.5213.2229.5322.5363448.2228
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • We are back into the 51 levels
  • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
    • On the high­er time frames we can see sup­port at 49.50 and resis­tance at 52.75
  • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
    • The 4H chart shows that we have a sup­port lev­el at the 50.50 mark
      • And resis­tance at the 52.50 mark
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Dur­ing the AS we con­tin­ued bounc­ing off of the 50.80 lev­el and found tem­po­rary resis­tance at the 30M VWAP mean
    • Before Lon­don opened we were try­ing to make a HL above the 50.80 lev­el which we suc­ceed­ed in dop­ing with Lon­don open
  • ATR
    • What is the ATR on the daily?
      • Is it increasing/decreasing?
        • 2.4577
        • We are decreas­ing so that could be an indi­ca­tor that the mar­ket is ready for anoth­er trend­ing phase, unsure yet if up or down

Trade Plan

  • I’m going to be extra care­ful today
  • I will be look­ing for a rever­sal at DPP 51.384 if there is one, if not per­haps a con­tin­u­a­tion of the uptrend break­ing that lev­el in the form of a pull­back to this level
  • If we can’t hold it I will short the way down to per­haps the 50.80 lev­el again

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Only take 4 trades
  • Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze)
  • Only trade what you see

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • On the 30M chart we saw a rejec­tion of the 50.80 lev­el and thus cre­at­ed sup­port there
    • We then shot up through the DPP at 51.384 which also coin­cides with the 30M 50MA giv­ing resis­tance still but we might actu­al­ly break this level
    • We then had a pull­back to the 30M 50MA and 5M UKC at the 51.50 level
    • The mar­ket seems rather slow today and as soon as I said this we shot up
      • Next resis­tance would be at the 52 level
    • We seem to have halt­ed at the 51.80 to make a pull­back and we remained at the same level
      • There is one rejec­tion can­dle of the 51.80 lev­el but no clear sign that we are going back down and NY is about to open so I am done for today. Bet­ter day tomorrow.

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal
        • Below the LKC and at the 2.0 SD plus we had reject­ed the 50.80 lev­el before dur­ing the NY ses­sion clos­ing hours before AS opened
        • Entry
          • 50.917
    • SL
      • I put the stop very tight under the low­est wick of the drop to the 50.80 level
      • SL
        • 50.861
    • TP
      • Hadn’t set a TP
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • This trade only last­ed 13 sec­onds and got stopped out before I could set a TP
      • The trade then went into my direc­tion and I took anoth­er position
      • Lost 6 pips
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal
        • Same rea­sons as the first trade
        • Entry
          • 50.991
    • SL
      • 50.943
    • TP
      • 51.183
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I cov­ered quick­ly at the 5M VWAP mean at a 8 tick profit
  • T3
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal
      • We had bro­ken out of the UKC and reached over­bought on the VWAP 2.0 SD
      • We then made a 2nd bear­ish can­dle reject­ing the 51.60 so I short­ed and put a tight stop
      • Entry
        • 51.586
    • SL
      • 51.631
    • TP
      • 51.420
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I got tak­en out and after­wards price did go in my way and I was think­ing to take anoth­er trade but hesitated
      • Lost 4 ticks
  • T4

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • 2 got stopped out and the one I cov­ered myself at a crit­i­cal lev­el. The whole time I was talk­ing neg­a­tive­ly about myself for why I am so tired and I should change this etc. but I have made so much progress and I deserve to go on trips with­out feel­ing bad about it. There will always be anoth­er day of trad­ing oppor­tu­ni­ties. We live in world of abundance

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Only take 4 trades
    • I only took 3 of which 2 was actu­al­ly one trad­ing opportunity
  • Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze)
    • I did stick to my PB setups
  • Only trade what you see
    • I did this too but my tim­ing was off and got stopped out. Prob­a­bly due to me being so tired. Tomor­row is anoth­er day.


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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