12122018 Trade Plan — Swing Reversal to UKC BO & 30M 50/200MA crossover play - Bear Market Trader
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12122018 Trade Plan — Swing Reversal to UKC BO & 30M 50/200MA crossover play

Daily Report Card

12122018 Trade Plan — Swing Reversal to UKC BO & 30M 50/200MA crossover play

12122018 Trade Plan — Swing Rever­sal to UKC BO & 30M 50/200MA crossover play

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
  • POI = Point Of Interest

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeFri­daySat­ur­daySun­dayMon­dayTues­dayWednes­day
Beers night before1 fin­ger whiskey641211 red wine
Hours sleep7.57.58598.5
Sleep well?333121
Neg­a­tive thoughts?221232
Exer­cise yester(to)day211221
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1.5 cof­fee01 espres­so
Water 2.2L bottles221.5112
Time bed yesterday11:0001:0003:0004:0011:0010:30

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • I don’t feel sharp at all. I thought I’d caught up a bit on sleep by sleep­ing ear­li­er and longer but this hasn’t done the trick yet. I also believe that not drink­ing water as much as I usu­al­ly do has a role in this as well.
    • This calls for extra cau­tion dur­ing the ses­sion today.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
    • 2

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • Yes­ter­day we moved from the 51 lev­el to the 52.50 lev­el and found resis­tance again
    • How­ev­er, we are still over the 51.80 mark which has been a sig­nif­i­cant intra­day lev­el for S/R
    • Yes­ter­day we were try­ing to antic­i­pate the API report that came out
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • What does the crowd think?
      • Accord­ing to investing.com yesterday
        • All sen­ti­ments is 58% bullish
        • Last week 63% bullish
        • Last 3 days 65% bullish
      • Accord­ing to investing.com today
        • All sen­ti­ments is 59% bullish
        • Last week 64% bullish
        • Last 3 days 66% bullish
      • Over­all sen­ti­ment has increased slight­ly by 1 point
    • High 1.14003
    • Low 1.13065
    • Close
      • It looks like there is sell­ing pres­sure on the pair
      • Accord­ing to IG client sen­ti­ment there is still a mixed bias since there is a drop in net-long posi­tions by 17%
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed EURUSD trad­ing bias.
  • Gold
    • Low 1241.30
    • High 1249.50
    • Close 1243.10
      • Accord­ing to investing.com today
        • All sen­ti­ments is 68% bullish
        • Last week 67% bullish
        • Last 3 days 69% bullish
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests Spot Gold prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed Spot Gold trad­ing bias.
      • Gold Retreats on Dol­lar Resilience Despite 2019 Rate Hike Doubts
        • Futures set­tled down for a sec­ond day in a row Tues­day after climb­ing ear­li­er in the ses­sion on Brex­it anx­i­eties and spec­u­la­tion that the Fed­er­al Reserve will hold on rais­ing rates after a wide­ly expect­ed hike next week, which would be its fourth for this year.
  • Geopol­i­tics
    • For­mer Trump advis­er Fly­nn requests pro­ba­tion in Mueller probe
    • Gun­man kills three peo­ple in French Christ­mas mar­ket, flees
    • Trump award­ed near­ly $300,000 in legal fees in Daniels defama­tion lawsuit
    • U.N. pro­pos­es Yemen’s war­ring par­ties pull out of key port: sources
      • The Unit­ed Nations pro­posed at ini­tial talks between Yemen’s war­ring par­ties on Tues­day that they with­draw from the con­test­ed port city of Hodei­dah, a life­line for mil­lions fac­ing famine, and place it under the con­trol of an inter­im entity.
    • Russ­ian nuclear-capa­ble bomber air­craft fly to Venezuela, anger­ing U.S.
      • Two Russ­ian strate­gic bomber air­craft capa­ble of car­ry­ing nuclear weapons have land­ed in ally Venezuela, a show of sup­port for Venezue­la’s social­ist gov­ern­ment that has infu­ri­at­ed Washington.
    • Macron’s con­ces­sions set to blow out French deficit
      • Macron announced wage increas­es for the poor­est work­ers and a tax cut for most pen­sion­ers on Mon­day to defuse dis­con­tent, leav­ing his gov­ern­ment scram­bling to come up with extra bud­get sav­ings or risk blow­ing through the EU’s 3 per­cent of GDP limit.
    • Iraq to seek exemp­tion from U.S. sanc­tions on Iran: PM
      • Iraqi Prime Min­is­ter Adel Abdul Mah­di said on Tues­day he would send a del­e­ga­tion to the Unit­ed States to seek an exemp­tion from sanc­tions against Iran that would allow Bagh­dad to keep import­ing gas from Tehran.
    • Putin’s Stasi iden­ti­ty card dis­cov­ered in Ger­man archives
      • The card was issued in 1986 when Putin was a mid-rank­ing KGB spy sta­tioned in Dres­den in com­mu­nist East Ger­many, then under Russ­ian occu­pa­tion. It has lain in archives since at least 1990, when the two Ger­manys were reunified.
    • Two mis­sile launch­ers found in Yemen appear to be from Iran: U.N.
    • France gives weapons to Cen­tral Africa, favors end to embargo
      • France on Tues­day deliv­ered hun­dreds of assault weapons to Cen­tral African Repub­lic (CAR) to fight the grow­ing influ­ence of armed groups in its for­mer colony and said it had no objec­tions in prin­ci­ple to lift­ing a U.N. arms embar­go on the country.
      • Paris is wor­ried about grow­ing Russ­ian influ­ence and mil­i­tary pres­ence in CAR, which has strug­gled with fight­ing since a 2013 civ­il war, often between Chris­t­ian and Mus­lim militias.
    • UK’s May, boxed in on Brex­it, gets locked in her limo
    • U.S. mis­sile defense sys­tem suc­ceeds in sig­nif­i­cant test: military
      • The U.S. mil­i­tary said on Tues­day it suc­cess­ful­ly test­ed a key mis­sile defense sys­tem, a mile­stone that demon­strat­ed U.S. capa­bil­i­ty to knock down an incom­ing, inter­me­di­ate-range mis­sile from coun­tries like North Korea.

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Oil Prices Head High­er After API Reports Huge Crude Draw
      • The Amer­i­can Petro­le­um Insti­tute (API) report­ed a huge crude oil inven­to­ry draw 10.18 mil­lion bar­rels for the week end­ing Decem­ber 7, com­pared to ana­lyst expec­ta­tions that we would see a draw in crude oil inven­to­ries of 2.990 mil­lion barrels.
      • Expect­ed a draw of 3 mil­lion but got draw of 10 mil­lion accord­ing to API
      • Last week, the API report­ed a build of over 5 mil­lion bar­rels. A day lat­er, the EIA had a com­plete­ly con­tra­dic­to­ry report show­ing a 7.3‑million-barrel draw.
  • EIA report
  • What are the head­lines of today?
    • Syr­i­an Civil­ians Seize Oil Wells From Rebel Group
      • A large group of Syr­i­an civil­ians took con­trol over sev­er­al oil wells in east­ern Syr­ia after clash­es with rebel group Syr­i­an Demo­c­ra­t­ic Forces, Iran­ian Fars News report­ed today, cit­ing infor­ma­tion from the UK-based Syr­i­an Obser­va­to­ry for Human Rights.
      • Accord­ing to the report, the rebel group, which com­pris­es Kur­dish and Arab fight­ers sup­port­ed by the Unit­ed States, had been hoard­ing fuel, refus­ing to sup­ply it to com­mu­ni­ties in the east­ern Syr­i­an province of Deir ez Zor, and as a result caused a spike in prices.
    • Rus­sia Will Cut Oil Pro­duc­tion By 60,000 Bpd In January
      • Rus­sia is plan­ning to reduce its oil pro­duc­tion by 50,000 bpd to 60,000 bpd in Jan­u­ary as part of the new OPEC+ deal, and will not be cut­ting its 228,000-bpd share out­right at the start of the agree­ment, Russia’s Ener­gy Min­is­ter Alexan­der Novak said on Tuesday. 
    • Trump Admin­is­tra­tion Talks Fos­sil Fuels At Pol­ish Cli­mate Summit
      • The Trump Administration’s mes­sage is clear: coal is still nec­es­sary, as it accounts for a sig­nif­i­cant por­tion of the ener­gy mix, and nat­ur­al gas is now a clear front run­ner as its replace­ment. The two com­bined account for about 62% of the Unit­ed States’ elec­tric­i­ty gen­er­a­tion, accord­ing to the EIA.
    • Stocks run with Sino‑U.S. trade hopes; ster­ling ham­strung by politics
      • Asian stock mar­kets ral­lied on Wednes­day as U.S. Pres­i­dent Don­ald trump sound­ed upbeat about a trade deal with Chi­na, while ster­ling strug­gled with the risk of an immi­nent par­ty coup against British Prime Min­is­ter There­sa May.
    • Iran Widens Dis­count For Crude To Asia
      • Iran is going to offer its crude to Asian buy­ers, to be deliv­ered in Jan­u­ary, at US$1 per bar­rel less than this month, Reuters reports, cit­ing a pric­ing doc­u­ment. The offi­cial sell­ing price of Iran­ian Light crude was set at US$0.30 above the Platts Dubai/Oman aver­age for January.
      • This makes Iran­ian Light US$0.30 a bar­rel cheap­er than Sau­di Arab Light, with Iran­ian Heavy cost­ing US$1.25 less per bar­rel than the Kingdom’s Arab Medi­um grade, Reuters calculates.
  • How is the Geopo­lit­i­cal sta­bil­i­ty in the world?
    • It seems that moves are con­tin­u­ing to be made against Rus­sia and Rus­sia fir­ing back with the Venezuela situation
    • UK and France in some dif­fi­cul­ties still
  • Addi­tion­al OPEC news
    • What Would A New OPEC Look Like?
      • UAE Min­is­ter of Ener­gy, and OPEC chair­man, Al Mazrouie report­ed yes­ter­day that Sau­di Ara­bia has pro­posed a con­fer­ence to insti­tu­tion­al­ize an OPEC and non-OPEC Alliance in the next 3 months. 
      • OPEC to turn into NOPEC
      • Such alliance is impor­tant because of the vol­umes that Rus­sia would be bring­ing into the fold
      • The 3 kings Riyadh (Sau­di Ara­bia), Abu Dhabi (UAE), and Moscow (Rus­sia) will effec­tive­ly have all the pow­er with at the same time sidelin­ing Iran and Qatar leav­ing from OPEC
      • Oth­er options also still exist, as Azer­bai­jan, Egypt and oth­ers could be look­ing to join too.
      • A stronger NOPEC decrease the U.S. claims of ener­gy mar­ket dom­i­nance. Already, U.S. pres­i­dent Trump’s claims are based on the wrong assump­tions, as true ener­gy dom­i­nance remains a long shot.
        • Demand for OPEC oil con­tin­ues is strong and keeps increasing
        • US ener­gy and shale pro­duc­tion prob­a­bly overestimated
        • Over­all mar­ket fun­da­men­tal pow­er of U.S. shale oil is less, espe­cial­ly when tak­ing into con­sid­er­a­tion that the U.S. has vir­tu­al­ly no spare capacity. 
        • OPEC or NOPEC have an exist­ing spare pro­duc­tion capac­i­ty, and the capa­bil­i­ty to act as a swing pro­duc­er to sta­bi­lize the mar­ket. U.S. shale does not have the same capa­bil­i­ties, based on tech­ni­cal and geo­log­i­cal factors.

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

12/04/201812/05/201812/06/201812/07/201812/3 — 12/712/10/201812/11/2018
Pip move213.2229.5322.5363448.2228172
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • We can see that yes­ter­day we closed close to our high and that the biggest intra­day swing has decreased to 173 ticks
    • The PP lev­els have nar­rowed as well so we could be in the squeeze stage again and expect a sig­nif­i­cant move up or down
  • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
    • Ever since we dropped to a bot­tom at the 50 lev­el we have been rang­ing between this lev­el and 54
      • With the epi­cen­ter of PA between 51 and 52.50
  • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
    • The 4H chart shows that we are knock­ing on the 52.50 level 
    • The 30M chart shows us that we have swing sup­port lev­els at the 52.1 lev­el and if we break that we have anoth­er at 51.65
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • Dur­ing the AS we have touched the 52.50 lev­el and bounced off it and returned to 52.25 both sig­nif­i­cant lev­els where the 52.25 is more a retrace­ment area than sig­nif­i­cant sup­port or resistance
  • ATR
    • What is the ATR on the daily?
      • Is it increasing/decreasing?
      • 2.4141
        • It is still decreasing

Trade Plan

  • Be extra cau­tious because you’re not focused as much. You’re still tired. Also, the EIA report is to come out lat­er today so the mar­ket might be chop­py in expec­ta­tion of it
  • I’m going to keep an eye for signs of a poten­tial BO from the 52.50 level
    • The next resis­tance lev­el could be 54
    • How to trade: wait for a swing rever­sal before the BO to try and ride the pos­si­ble BO, but know­ing me I’d take prof­its long before that. How­ev­er, I’ll try and only take half of the prof­its and let the rest ride using 13MA as stops
  • If we don’t move up but rather BD from the 52.25 lev­el I’d be inter­est­ed to see if we find sup­port at the 51.50 as we did before
    • If we do BD I’d be look­ing out for the 51 and 50 lev­el again
    • How to trade: ride the BD by using the 13MA as a stop

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Only take 4 trades
  • Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze)
  • Only trade what you see

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • At Lon­don open we con­tin­ued the drop a bit
      • We were already under the LKC and into the 2.0 SD
      • We are also at the 52 lev­el so let’s see if this lev­el holds and I can take a Swing Rever­sal trade
    • On the 30M we can see that we have hit the 1.5 SD and the 30M 200MA is slight­ly under­neath that at 51.96 so it would be inter­est­ing to see if we can break that. I think it’s more like­ly that we will reject this area but let’s wait and see
    • ATR on the 5M has also widened to 0.065
    • We had a doji can­dle and I was wait­ing for anoth­er con­fir­ma­tion of rejec­tion of this lev­el before I got it try­ing to be extra cau­tious but then PA shot up and we are cur­rent­ly test­ing the LKC which is also the 5M VWAP mean and 52.25 lev­el that had formed sup­port ear­li­er dur­ing the AS
    • 10:25 (16:25) PA sud­den­ly picked up speed
    • PA went through the LKC and touched the 1.0 SD and then got pushed down a lot so we might be look­ing to con­firm the 52.25 lev­el as resistance
    • Oth­er fun fact this is where the 30M 50MA is touch­ing (for a cross per­haps) the 30M 200MA from under
      • PA is also exact­ly on the 4H 50MA
        • So this could poten­tial­ly be big
    • T1 and T2
      • T1 loss 15 ticks
      • T2 win 11 ticks
    • Price con­tin­ued to climb and is about to test the 52.50 lev­el which is a sig­nif­i­cant 4H level
    • Holy shit we shot through the 52.50 lev­el how­ev­er not far enough that I think we actu­al­ly broke it and will con­tin­ue to climb. A rever­sal is def­i­nite­ly still a possibility
    • 4H 50MA is poten­tial­ly going to cross the 200MA
    • Was think­ing to take anoth­er posi­tion here since it jumped up high­er but I am hap­py I didn’t. I’m going to put this in my Play­book as a UKC BO & 30M 50/200MA crossover play
    • 11:30 We found tem­po­rary resis­tance at the 52.75 lev­el but are look­ing to break that as well
      • Next stops 53 and 53.30 lev­els how­ev­er we will run into some heavy resis­tance by the Dai­ly VWAP mean and I’m not sure we will have enough momen­tum to do that
        • Don’t think it will hap­pen dur­ing this session
    • I am look­ing for PA to show signs of weak­ness so that I could pos­si­bly trade the pull­back or rever­sal since we moved away from UKC very fast it could be very over­bought and thus a rever­sal could be upon us. But first wait for signs of sell­ers com­ing in
    • 11:40: We will find out in the next 10 min­utes if we are going to reverse at this 52.80 level
    • T3 short
      • Lost 11 ticks
    • 12:10
      • Noth­ing has hap­pened yet in terms of a rever­sal and we have been very slow­ly creep­ing up. This could be the pace for the rest of the ses­sion. We’ll see.
    • T4
      • Loss 5 ticks
    • I felt like short­ing as soon as I cov­ered but didn’t since I have already tak­en 4 trades so I have to call it quits from here on and I will con­tin­ue to read the tape
    • T5
      • I know I know I shouldn’t have….
      • Won 6 ticks
    • Done trad­ing for the rest of the ses­sion. Still one hour to go. 
    • We moved away from the 52.75 lev­el and moved a lit­tle high­er to the 52.85 lev­el could this be the BO after the 5M squeeze
      • No it wasn’t since we moved back to 52.80 level
    • NY is about to open so I am going to stop here and relax a bit and come back stronger tomor­row. I def­i­nite­ly feel the bur­den of not hav­ing slept enough this week. Mess­es up my whole week. Damn, I feel old 🙂

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal with continuation
        • PA went over the 5M VWAP mean and the LKC and retraced back to the 8MA and I went long
          • Entry
            • 52.325
    • SL
      • 52.176
      • I put the far below but appar­ent­ly not far enough
    • TP
      • 52.469
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I felt OK dur­ing the trade but set my SL far away but still got tak­en out at 52.174 only to push hard back up so I took anoth­er posi­tion in the same direction
  • T2
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal with continuation
      • Same as T1
      • Entry
        • 52.320
    • SL
      • Under the wick of the pre­vi­ous can­dle that took me out
      • 52.159
    • TP
      • 52.546
      • I placed the TP far away but I will prob­a­bly cov­er when we hit the UKC
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I feel like trad­ing today is not going to be that good.a lot of long wicked can­dles going on but let’s wait and see. This could be due to a high­er time frame crit­i­cal POI
      • I quick­ly cov­ered at 52.429 when we hit the 5M 2.0 SD but should have prob­a­bly let it run as always
  • T3
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal
        • We moved high and broke through 52.50 and knocked on the door of 52.80 so I thought a rever­sal could be upon us since we had moved into over­bought posi­tion so much but les­son learned over­bought doesn’t nec­es­sar­i­ly mean reversal
        • 52.807
    • SL
      • 52.914
    • TP
      • 52.638
    • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Got stopped out
    • Lost 11 pips
    • I don’t know why I actu­al­ly short­ed this since I was going counter-trend but that does seem to be my incli­na­tion. Luck­i­ly I took a small­er than nor­mal position.
  • T4
    • Why? What do I see?
      • UKC BO continuation
      • We returned to the 5M 13MA and so I took a long
      • Entry
        • 52.877
    • SL
      • 52.581
    • TP
      • 53.220
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I cov­ered quick­ly at 52.830 when I saw PA break the 13MA
      • Loss 5 ticks
  • T5
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Swing Rever­sal
      • I took this trade because I saw a rejec­tion can­dle at the 52.80 lev­el that was a LH and that made me think of a rollover pat­tern that I saw before when I was only trad­ing based on PA
      • Entry
        • 52.791
    • SL
      • 53.015
    • TP
      • 52.312
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • I feel a lit­tle bad for tak­ing a 5th trade and break­ing my goal to not take more than 4 trades but like I said this looked promis­ing and IN was in the mon­ey for a short while and we are now at the 52.80 lev­el again and if in the next few bars we don’t go my way I’ll get out since then my pat­tern would be broken
      • I kin­da feel like some­thing bad is going to hap­pen since PA has been so calm that liq­uid­i­ty went down and the spread widened
      • We have still been trad­ing under the 5M VWAP mean but might break that now
      • It looks like we real­ly might be con­firm­ing the 52.75 lev­el as sup­port since we can’t seem to be able to break it
        • How­ev­er, PA is still below the MAs and we might be try­ing to sneak back into the KC
        • Anoth­er pos­si­bil­i­ty could be that we are enter­ing anoth­er squeeze here so we can load up and actu­al­ly BO again to high­er levels
      • We are reject­ing the 52.75 after we dropped a bit but got pushed back fast by the bulls so I’m think­ing this is not hap­pen­ing any­more plus it has already been an hour since I took the trade and that is way longer than what I am usu­al­ly used to keep a trade open so am gonna close this now
        • I wait­ed a lit­tle longer and then closed it off at 52.733
        • Win 6 ticks
      • I had expect­ed a big drop but that didn’t come so I closed the trade at the bot­tom of the range that we seem to be having

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?
    • No since this is not my goal yet. I am try­ing to take good trades and wor­ry about let­ting the trade run for later.
    • I should have been in the long trade after we had a swing rever­sal at the bot­tom. I will but I will review that trade from my Play­book and put it into my arse­nal of setups
    • I lost 14 ticks today on small­er sizing

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Only take 4 trades
    • If you read through it you saw that I took a 5th trade and thus broke this rule. The rea­son for it was prob­a­bly a com­bi­na­tion of the following
      • Being tired and thus less dis­ci­pline to fol­low rules I set on myself
      • Haven tak­en 4 trades that net­ted in a loss
      • See­ing (or want­i­ng to see) a PA pat­tern that I had (thought) I had seen before
    • I will work on this by under­stand­ing that my judg­ment is heav­i­ly impaired under these con­di­tions and I should put less risk on not nec­es­sar­i­ly in siz­ing because I did do that luck­i­ly but def­i­nite­ly stick to my rules since they are my rules and they are in place for a reason
  • Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze)
    • I did fol­low this rule
  • Only trade what you see
    • I think I was doing this but didn’t count in the slow­ness in pace as much as I should have. There was no fol­low-through on moves so clear­ly the mar­ket is wait­ing for a ‘sense of direc­tion’ from here on


Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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