12132018 Trade Plan — Went on T!LT. Luckily I cut my losses short.

13 Dec 12132018 Trade Plan — Went on T!LT. Luckily I cut my losses short.

12132018 Trade Plan — Went on T!LT. Luck­i­ly I cut my loss­es short.

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negative	Sat­ur­day	Sun­day	Mon­day	Tues­day	Wednes­day	Thurs­day
12/08/2018	12/09/2018	12/10/2018	12/11/2018	12/12/2018	12/13/2018
Beers night before	6	4	12	1	1 red wine	2 red wines
Hours sleep	7.5	8	5	9	8.5	8.5
Sleep well?	3	3	1	2	1	3
Mela­tonin	0	0	0	0	0	0
Neg­a­tive thoughts?	2	1	2	3	2	3
Exer­cise yester(to)day	1	1	2	2	1	1
Grat­i­tude	4	5	5	5	4	5
Joy	4	5	5	5	4	5
Anger	2	1	1	1	1	1
Fear	2	1	1	1	1	1
Focus	2	3	2	1	1	2
Cof­fees today	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1 espres­so spread over 2 hours	1.5 cof­fee	0	1 espres­so	half cup in ear­ly morn­ing, 1 espres­so afternoon
no	no	yes	no rice etc.
Water 2.2L bottles	2	1.5	1	1	2	2
Vit­a­mins	yes	no	no	yes	yes	yes
Time bed yesterday	01:00	03:00	04:00	11:00	10:30	10:00

Health review (for the past week)

• How would you describe your over­all health?
  • Health has been get­ting bet­ter. Beel sleep­ing more so but still not a 100% fit. I’m get­ting there though.
• How do you feel?
  • I was feel­ing great but then got some per­son­al news that made me emo­tion­al so it is best to be extra cau­tious today.
• How would you rate it (1–5)?
• 1

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

• What hap­pened yesterday?
  • Yes­ter­day we went up and test­ed the 52.90 lev­el a few times before we dropped down to the 52 lev­el and tried to recov­er but made a LH at 52.70
  • We then slow­ly trad­ed low­er before we, late NY ses­sion, dropped to the 51.25 level
    • This lev­el is still way off the 4H sup­port lev­el of 50.80 so let’s see if we will drop fur­ther down to this sup­port lev­el or that we can hold this level
• What is the mar­ket sentiment?
  • What does the crowd think?
    • Accord­ing to investing.com yesterday
      • All sen­ti­ments is 59% bullish
      • Last week 64% bullish
      • Last 3 days 66% bullish
    • Accord­ing to investing.com today
      • All sen­ti­ments is 58% bullish
      • Last week 64% bullish
      • Last 3 days 64% bullish
    • Over­all sen­ti­ment dropped 1 point where last week stayed the same, but the last 3 days dropped 2 points
• EURUSD
  • Pre­vi­ous range
    • High 1.14003
    • Low 1.13065
  • Yesterday’s range
    • Low 1.13159
    • High 1.13867
    • Accord­ing to IG client sentiment
      • Mixed bias still even though 58.1% are still net-long on the pair
      • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed EURUSD trad­ing bias.
• Gold
  • Yesterday’s data
    • Low 1241.30
    • High 1249.50
    • Close 1243.10
      • Accord­ing to investing.com today
        • All sen­ti­ments is 68% bullish
        • Last week 67% bullish
        • Last 3 days 69% bullish
  • Today’s data
    • Low 1242.28
    • High 1247.09
    • Close 1245.23
      • Accord­ing to investing.com today
        • Accord­ing to investing.com today
          • All sen­ti­ments is 69% bullish
          • Last week 68% bullish
          • Last 3 days 70% bullish
          • Gold sen­ti­ment has increased by 1 point all across the board. Prob­a­bly because of more glob­al tur­moil mak­ing investors put their mon­ey into gold
• Geopol­i­tics
  • Trump inter­ven­tion com­ment may be gift to Huawei CFO
    • As the hear­ing was wind­ing up in a Cana­di­an court, Trump told Reuters he would inter­vene in the U.S. Jus­tice Depart­men­t’s case against Meng if it would serve nation­al secu­ri­ty inter­ests or help close a trade deal with China.
  • Mex­i­can pres­i­dent says he and Trump dis­cussed joint pro­gram on migration
  • Ex-Venezuela oil min­is­ter Mar­tinez dies in state custody
    • Arrest­ed in 2017 for let­ting a poor refi­nanc­ing deal for Cit­go to go ahead with­out gov­ern­ment approval
    • Sure to raise ques­tions on con­di­tions of impris­oned for­mer politi­cians and gov­ern­ment officials
  • U.S. Sen­ate advances res­o­lu­tion to end mil­i­tary sup­port for Saud­is in Yemen
  • Turkey to launch oper­a­tion against U.S.-backed Kurds in Syr­ia ‘in a few days’
    • Ankara and Wash­ing­ton have long been at odds over Syr­ia, where the Unit­ed States has backed the YPG Kur­dish mili­tia in the fight against Islam­ic State insurgents.
  • PM May pledges to quit before next UK elec­tion as she fights lead­er­ship challenge
    • British Prime Min­is­ter There­sa May promised on Wednes­day to step down before the next par­lia­men­tary elec­tion due in 2022, hop­ing to win over waver­ing law­mak­ers before a no con­fi­dence vote trig­gered by Brex­i­teers in her Con­ser­v­a­tive Party.
    • Less than four months before Britain is due to leave the Euro­pean Union on March 29, the coun­try’s exit is in chaos with options rang­ing from a poten­tial­ly dis­or­der­ly “no-deal” depar­ture to anoth­er ref­er­en­dum that could reverse it.
  • Yemen war­ring par­ties agree to reopen Sanaa air­port, resume oil, gas exports
  • U.S. wants U.N. to ban nuclear bal­lis­tic mis­sile work by Iran
  • Maduro accus­es U.S. offi­cial of plot­ting Venezuela inva­sion, gives no evidence
    • Maduro made his accu­sa­tion just days after Russ­ian bombers land­ed in Venezuela to car­ry out joint mil­i­tary exer­cis­es, spark­ing a war of words between Moscow and Washington.
  • Fail­ure to agree cli­mate deal rules would be sui­ci­dal — U.N. chief
    • Fail­ure by coun­tries to agree rules on imple­ment­ing the 2015 Paris cli­mate agree­ment aimed at curb­ing glob­al warm­ing would be sui­ci­dal, Unit­ed Nations Sec­re­tary-Gen­er­al Anto­nio Guter­res said on Wednesday.

Intra­day Fundamentals

• API report
  • Oil Prices Head High­er After API Reports Huge Crude Draw
    • The Amer­i­can Petro­le­um Insti­tute (API) report­ed a huge crude oil inven­to­ry draw 10.18 mil­lion bar­rels for the week end­ing Decem­ber 7, com­pared to ana­lyst expec­ta­tions that we would see a draw in crude oil inven­to­ries of 2.990 mil­lion barrels.
    • Expect­ed a draw of 3 mil­lion but got draw of 10 mil­lion accord­ing to API
    • Last week, the API report­ed a build of over 5 mil­lion bar­rels. A day lat­er, the EIA had a com­plete­ly con­tra­dic­to­ry report show­ing a 7.3‑million-barrel draw.
• EIA report
  • Fore­cast was ‑2.990M but the actu­al num­ber was ‑1.208M which would mean it’s a bear­ish out­come. Let’s see how the mar­ket will react to this.
• What are the head­lines of today?
  • China’s CNPC Halts Iran Gas Invest­ment Under U.S. Pressure
  • Sau­di Ara­bia Under Fire From All Sides
    • Sau­di Ara­bia bet that it could defy the U.S. when it pushed for oil pro­duc­tion cuts at the OPEC+ meet­ing, gam­bling that Pres­i­dent Trump would not lash out in retal­i­a­tion despite some heavy-hand­ed pres­sure from his twit­ter feed ahead of the sum­mit in Vien­na. This week, the bet seems to have paid off.
  • OPEC exit frees Qatar from U.S. legal concerns
    • Even before tak­ing over Qatar’s ener­gy pol­i­cy in a gov­ern­ment reshuf­fle last month, Qatar Petro­le­um (QP) CEO Saad al-Kaabi had long want­ed the Gulf state to leave OPEC.
    • Kaabi was con­cerned OPEC mem­ber­ship could be a stum­bling block for QP’s ambi­tions in the Unit­ed States, where it has one of the world’s biggest LNG ter­mi­nals, and a dis­trac­tion as Doha dou­bles down on gas pro­duc­tion, three indus­try sources said.
  • Big Oil Dou­bles Down On Shale Despite Price Drop
  • Asian shares ral­ly on U.S.-China trade thaw
  • Gold Prices Flat as U.S. Dol­lar Steadies
  • Chi­na Push­es Glob­al Oil Trad­ing To All-time High In 2018
    • This year’s crude oil futures trad­ing activ­i­ty is on track for a record high, as trad­ing vol­umes in China’s new yuan-denom­i­nat­ed futures con­tract is off­set­ting low­er activ­i­ty in the world’s top bench­marks and most active con­tracts, Brent and WTI, Reuters reports, cit­ing data from exchanges.
  • Record-high U.S. crude oil pro­duc­tion con­tributes to low­er fore­cast prices
  • Trump ex-lawyer Cohen giv­en three years in prison as risks rise for Trump
• How is the Geopo­lit­i­cal sta­bil­i­ty in the world?
  • Rus­sia is still a tar­get for the US espe­cial­ly with the move with Venezuela
  • Chi­na and US are calmer in their trade war at the moment but that could change any day. You nev­er know with Trump.
  • Then there’s some con­flict com­ing from Turkey as well
  • PM May is try­ing to soft­en the UK gov­ern­ment so let’s see how that goes.
• Addi­tion­al OPEC news
  • None at this moment besides that Qatar want­ed to leave OPEC even before all the troubles

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

Wednes­day	Thurs­day	Fri­day	Week	Mon­day	Tues­day	Wednes­day
12/05/2018	12/06/2018	12/07/2018	12/3 — 12/7	12/10/2018	12/11/2018	12/12/2018
High	54.42	53.28	54.2	54.537	52.78	52	52.827
Low	52.125	50.055	50.57	50.055	50.5	50.67	50.91
Close	52.91	51.694	52.21	52.21	50.871	51.925	51.17
Pip move	229.5	322.5	363	448.2	228	172	191.7
PP	53.152	51.676	52.327	52.267	51.384	51.662	51.636
R1	54.179	53.297	54.084	54.479	52.268	52.654	52.362
R2	55.447	54.901	55.957	56.749	53.664	53	53.553
S1	51.884	50.072	50.454	49.997	49.988	51	50.445
S2	50.857	48.451	48.697	47.785	49.104	50	49.719
TV	102,902	351,292	376,998	1,436,979	213,946	165,562	207,997

• What can we tell from the PP levels?
  • We can tell that the DPP has remained vir­tu­al­ly the same with 51.636 how­ev­er R1 has decreased and R2 has increased. And on the sup­port side we see both S1 and S2 mov­ing lower.
  • So it looks like more volatil­i­ty came into the mar­ket and more of a shit to the down­side might be upon us. Let’s wait and see of course.
• Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
  • We are still in the 49.50 to 52.75 range when we look to the daily
• What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
  • On the 4H chart we can see that there is addi­tion­al sup­port on the 50.80 as well
  • On the 30M chart we can see that start­ed off at the 52 S/R lev­el and reject­ed it (which is also the DPP level)
    • Fur­ther­more we can see that NY ses­sion dropped till the 51.10 lev­el before find­ing sup­port and bounc­ing off that.
• What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
  • AS open we gapped up and ever since we have been arch­ing over in a dead cat bounce kind of way when we look at the 30M chart
• ATR
  • What is the ATR on the daily?
    • Is it increasing/decreasing?
    • 2.4309 we are still decreas­ing slightly

Trade Plan

• My plan is to wait and see if we reject any of the lev­els men­tioned before. I will espe­cial­ly look on the sup­port side to see if we can reverse at any of those lev­els. The first point of inter­est is the 51.10 lev­el that we bounced off of at the end of yesterday’s NY session. 
  • Can we hold that level 
    • If we can I’ll be look­ing to take a long posi­tion after a swing rever­sal has played out
  • If we do end up break­ing that lev­el I will look for a LKC BD setup

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Only take 4 trades
• Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze, KC BO/BD)
• Only trade what you see

Read­ing the Tape

• What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
  • We quick­ly dropped to the 51.10 lev­el after Lon­don opened
    • It looks like we are bounc­ing off that lev­el again
  • T1 loss 5 ticks
  • This is a heavy rejec­tion of the 51.10 level
    • The 30M chart shows one big long down bar and one big long up bar and it’s still going
  • We just touched the UKC at 51.60
    • This was quite a run actually
  • I am still trad­ing small­er sizes because I am not on my sharpest today
  • All my rules went out of the win­dow and I am not trad­ing well. Damn it. I told myself I would be extra cau­tious and then I took out 2 hedge posi­tions and then added to one posi­tion at the top. Even took a big­ger size posi­tion. WTF?! So not good… the news I had received ear­li­er has impaired my abil­i­ty to make sound calls in the mar­ket so I am going to shut off my trad­ing desk and go for a walk. I won’t lit­er­al­ly shut it off because I am still record­ing my screen for lat­er review. But I am done. 

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

• T1
  • Why? What do I see?
    • Price reject­ed the 51.10 lev­el and returned up to the LKC again and formed an inde­ci­sion can­dle so thought we might reverse a lit­tle before we pos­si­ble break back up
      • Entry
        • 51.335
  • SL
    • Just above the 5M VWAP mean
    • 51.38
  • TP
    • 51.172
      • At the low­er end of the pre­vi­ous candle
  • Trade Man­age­ment
    • Got out at 51.383 because I saw PA not drop­ping as quick as I would have expect­ed and it was mak­ing efforts to break up
    • Lost 5 ticks on this trade

• T2
  • MESSED UP

• T3
  • MESSED UP

• T4
  • MESSED UP

Trade Review

• Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?

Dai­ly Report Card

• Only take 4 trades
  • I took 5 trades.
    • The 5th trade was to make up for my stu­pid mis­take of hedg­ing and got aggres­sive and want­ed to take back what is mine. HEDGING IS NOT MY STRATEGY. I only take one posi­tion at a time. 
• Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze, KC BO/BD)
  • I don’t know what I was doing. All I know is that my mind is not in the right state. 
• Only trade what you see
  • Well, what­ev­er I thought I saw wasn’t it. 

Con­clu­sion

Sev­er­al things went wrong. I was hav­ing a bad day and I should not have trad­ed today but I did any­way. Had a lit­tle too much caf­feine and not enough car­bo­hy­drates and was feel­ing edgy. In a sort of fight or flight mode. I broke all my rules. I trad­ed out of anger and want­ed to make up for loss­es. Then I tried to force my will on the mar­ket. Which obvi­ous­ly is futile. So how can I pre­vent this in the future? I will be more atten­tive to this state of mind next time it comes around. I had already not­ed that I had some unpleas­ant news but now I know that I should stay out of the mar­ket completely. 

Let’s now look at the pos­i­tives. I fig­ured out quick­ly that I went on tilt and closed off my posi­tions very soon after. I real­ized what I was doing and I had to stop. As a result I only lost 1.5% of my account as opposed to the 20+% last time. So that’s an improve­ment. This shows how men­tal this trad­ing ‘game’ is and it should be respect­ed for what it is. An elite game of mar­ket participants. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

QODE META

oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trad­ing, day­trad­ing, com­modi­ties, play­book, one good trade,