Latest Posts
Bear Market Trader | Trade Journal on day trading the WTI crude oil market
oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trading, daytrading, commodities, daily analysis ,technical analysis, one good trade, the playbook
1732
post-template-default,single,single-post,postid-1732,single-format-standard,locale-en-us,ajax_fade,page_not_loaded,,side_area_uncovered_from_content,qode-theme-ver-9.5,hide_inital_sticky,wpb-js-composer js-comp-ver-4.11.2.1,vc_responsive
 

12132018 Trade Plan — Went on T!LT. Luckily I cut my losses short.

12132018 Trade Plan — Went on T!LT. Luckily I cut my losses short.

12132018 Trade Plan — Went on T!LT. Luck­i­ly I cut my loss­es short.

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

  • PA = Price Action
  • BO = Break Out
  • BD = Break Down
  • CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
  • CAS = Con­firm As Support
  • UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
  • LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
  • TV = Tick Volume
  • WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
  • DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
  • WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
  • HL = High­er Low
  • HH = High­er High
  • LH = Low­er High
  • LL = Low­er Low
  • SD = Stan­dard Deviation
  • VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
  • AS = Asian Session
  • LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
  • NY = New York Ses­sion (US)

Per­son­al Checklist

5 pos­i­tive 1 negativeSat­ur­daySun­dayMon­dayTues­dayWednes­dayThurs­day
12/08/201812/09/201812/10/201812/11/201812/12/201812/13/2018
Beers night before641211 red wine2 red wines
Hours sleep7.58598.58.5
Sleep well?331213
Mela­tonin000000
Neg­a­tive thoughts?212323
Exer­cise yester(to)day112211
Grat­i­tude455545
Joy455545
Anger211111
Fear211111
Focus232112
Cof­fees today1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1 espres­so spread over 2 hours1.5 cof­fee01 espres­sohalf cup in ear­ly morn­ing, 1 espres­so afternoon
nonoyesno rice etc.
Water 2.2L bottles21.51122
Vit­a­minsyesnonoyesyesyes
Time bed yesterday01:0003:0004:0011:0010:3010:00

Health review (for the past week)

  • How would you describe your over­all health?
    • Health has been get­ting bet­ter. Beel sleep­ing more so but still not a 100% fit. I’m get­ting there though.
  • How do you feel?
    • I was feel­ing great but then got some per­son­al news that made me emo­tion­al so it is best to be extra cau­tious today.
  • How would you rate it (1–5)?
  • 1

The Big Pic­ture (dai­ly)

  • What hap­pened yesterday?
    • Yes­ter­day we went up and test­ed the 52.90 lev­el a few times before we dropped down to the 52 lev­el and tried to recov­er but made a LH at 52.70
    • We then slow­ly trad­ed low­er before we, late NY ses­sion, dropped to the 51.25 level
      • This lev­el is still way off the 4H sup­port lev­el of 50.80 so let’s see if we will drop fur­ther down to this sup­port lev­el or that we can hold this level
  • What is the mar­ket sentiment?
    • What does the crowd think?
      • Accord­ing to investing.com yesterday
        • All sen­ti­ments is 59% bullish
        • Last week 64% bullish
        • Last 3 days 66% bullish
      • Accord­ing to investing.com today
        • All sen­ti­ments is 58% bullish
        • Last week 64% bullish
        • Last 3 days 64% bullish
      • Over­all sen­ti­ment dropped 1 point where last week stayed the same, but the last 3 days dropped 2 points
  • EURUSD
    • Pre­vi­ous range
      • High 1.14003
      • Low 1.13065
    • Yesterday’s range
      • Low 1.13159
      • High 1.13867
      • Accord­ing to IG client sentiment
        • Mixed bias still even though 58.1% are still net-long on the pair
        • We typ­i­cal­ly take a con­trar­i­an view to crowd sen­ti­ment, and the fact traders are net-long sug­gests EURUSD prices may con­tin­ue to fall. Posi­tion­ing is more net-long than yes­ter­day but less net-long from last week. The com­bi­na­tion of cur­rent sen­ti­ment and recent changes gives us a fur­ther mixed EURUSD trad­ing bias.
  • Gold
    • Yesterday’s data
      • Low 1241.30
      • High 1249.50
      • Close 1243.10
        • Accord­ing to investing.com today
          • All sen­ti­ments is 68% bullish
          • Last week 67% bullish
          • Last 3 days 69% bullish
    • Today’s data
      • Low 1242.28
      • High 1247.09
      • Close 1245.23
        • Accord­ing to investing.com today
          • Accord­ing to investing.com today
            • All sen­ti­ments is 69% bullish
            • Last week 68% bullish
            • Last 3 days 70% bullish
            • Gold sen­ti­ment has increased by 1 point all across the board. Prob­a­bly because of more glob­al tur­moil mak­ing investors put their mon­ey into gold
  • Geopol­i­tics
    • Trump inter­ven­tion com­ment may be gift to Huawei CFO
      • As the hear­ing was wind­ing up in a Cana­di­an court, Trump told Reuters he would inter­vene in the U.S. Jus­tice Depart­men­t’s case against Meng if it would serve nation­al secu­ri­ty inter­ests or help close a trade deal with China.
    • Mex­i­can pres­i­dent says he and Trump dis­cussed joint pro­gram on migration
    • Ex-Venezuela oil min­is­ter Mar­tinez dies in state custody
      • Arrest­ed in 2017 for let­ting a poor refi­nanc­ing deal for Cit­go to go ahead with­out gov­ern­ment approval
      • Sure to raise ques­tions on con­di­tions of impris­oned for­mer politi­cians and gov­ern­ment officials
    • U.S. Sen­ate advances res­o­lu­tion to end mil­i­tary sup­port for Saud­is in Yemen
    • Turkey to launch oper­a­tion against U.S.-backed Kurds in Syr­ia ‘in a few days’
      • Ankara and Wash­ing­ton have long been at odds over Syr­ia, where the Unit­ed States has backed the YPG Kur­dish mili­tia in the fight against Islam­ic State insurgents.
    • PM May pledges to quit before next UK elec­tion as she fights lead­er­ship challenge
      • British Prime Min­is­ter There­sa May promised on Wednes­day to step down before the next par­lia­men­tary elec­tion due in 2022, hop­ing to win over waver­ing law­mak­ers before a no con­fi­dence vote trig­gered by Brex­i­teers in her Con­ser­v­a­tive Party.
      • Less than four months before Britain is due to leave the Euro­pean Union on March 29, the coun­try’s exit is in chaos with options rang­ing from a poten­tial­ly dis­or­der­ly “no-deal” depar­ture to anoth­er ref­er­en­dum that could reverse it.
    • Yemen war­ring par­ties agree to reopen Sanaa air­port, resume oil, gas exports
    • U.S. wants U.N. to ban nuclear bal­lis­tic mis­sile work by Iran
    • Maduro accus­es U.S. offi­cial of plot­ting Venezuela inva­sion, gives no evidence
      • Maduro made his accu­sa­tion just days after Russ­ian bombers land­ed in Venezuela to car­ry out joint mil­i­tary exer­cis­es, spark­ing a war of words between Moscow and Washington.
    • Fail­ure to agree cli­mate deal rules would be sui­ci­dal — U.N. chief
      • Fail­ure by coun­tries to agree rules on imple­ment­ing the 2015 Paris cli­mate agree­ment aimed at curb­ing glob­al warm­ing would be sui­ci­dal, Unit­ed Nations Sec­re­tary-Gen­er­al Anto­nio Guter­res said on Wednesday.

Intra­day Fundamentals

  • API report
    • Oil Prices Head High­er After API Reports Huge Crude Draw
      • The Amer­i­can Petro­le­um Insti­tute (API) report­ed a huge crude oil inven­to­ry draw 10.18 mil­lion bar­rels for the week end­ing Decem­ber 7, com­pared to ana­lyst expec­ta­tions that we would see a draw in crude oil inven­to­ries of 2.990 mil­lion barrels.
      • Expect­ed a draw of 3 mil­lion but got draw of 10 mil­lion accord­ing to API
      • Last week, the API report­ed a build of over 5 mil­lion bar­rels. A day lat­er, the EIA had a com­plete­ly con­tra­dic­to­ry report show­ing a 7.3‑million-barrel draw.
  • EIA report
    • Fore­cast was ‑2.990M but the actu­al num­ber was ‑1.208M which would mean it’s a bear­ish out­come. Let’s see how the mar­ket will react to this.
  • What are the head­lines of today?
    • China’s CNPC Halts Iran Gas Invest­ment Under U.S. Pressure
    • Sau­di Ara­bia Under Fire From All Sides
      • Sau­di Ara­bia bet that it could defy the U.S. when it pushed for oil pro­duc­tion cuts at the OPEC+ meet­ing, gam­bling that Pres­i­dent Trump would not lash out in retal­i­a­tion despite some heavy-hand­ed pres­sure from his twit­ter feed ahead of the sum­mit in Vien­na. This week, the bet seems to have paid off.
    • OPEC exit frees Qatar from U.S. legal concerns
      • Even before tak­ing over Qatar’s ener­gy pol­i­cy in a gov­ern­ment reshuf­fle last month, Qatar Petro­le­um (QP) CEO Saad al-Kaabi had long want­ed the Gulf state to leave OPEC.
      • Kaabi was con­cerned OPEC mem­ber­ship could be a stum­bling block for QP’s ambi­tions in the Unit­ed States, where it has one of the world’s biggest LNG ter­mi­nals, and a dis­trac­tion as Doha dou­bles down on gas pro­duc­tion, three indus­try sources said.
    • Big Oil Dou­bles Down On Shale Despite Price Drop
    • Asian shares ral­ly on U.S.-China trade thaw
    • Gold Prices Flat as U.S. Dol­lar Steadies
    • Chi­na Push­es Glob­al Oil Trad­ing To All-time High In 2018
      • This year’s crude oil futures trad­ing activ­i­ty is on track for a record high, as trad­ing vol­umes in China’s new yuan-denom­i­nat­ed futures con­tract is off­set­ting low­er activ­i­ty in the world’s top bench­marks and most active con­tracts, Brent and WTI, Reuters reports, cit­ing data from exchanges.
    • Record-high U.S. crude oil pro­duc­tion con­tributes to low­er fore­cast prices
    • Trump ex-lawyer Cohen giv­en three years in prison as risks rise for Trump
  • How is the Geopo­lit­i­cal sta­bil­i­ty in the world?
    • Rus­sia is still a tar­get for the US espe­cial­ly with the move with Venezuela
    • Chi­na and US are calmer in their trade war at the moment but that could change any day. You nev­er know with Trump.
    • Then there’s some con­flict com­ing from Turkey as well
    • PM May is try­ing to soft­en the UK gov­ern­ment so let’s see how that goes.
  • Addi­tion­al OPEC news
    • None at this moment besides that Qatar want­ed to leave OPEC even before all the troubles

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

Wednes­dayThurs­dayFri­dayWeekMon­dayTues­dayWednes­day
12/05/201812/06/201812/07/201812/3 — 12/712/10/201812/11/201812/12/2018
High54.4253.2854.254.53752.785252.827
Low52.12550.05550.5750.05550.550.6750.91
Close52.9151.69452.2152.2150.87151.92551.17
Pip move229.5322.5363448.2228172191.7
PP53.15251.67652.32752.26751.38451.66251.636
R154.17953.29754.08454.47952.26852.65452.362
R255.44754.90155.95756.74953.6645353.553
S151.88450.07250.45449.99749.9885150.445
S250.85748.45148.69747.78549.1045049.719
TV102,902351,292376,9981,436,979213,946165,562207,997
  • What can we tell from the PP levels?
    • We can tell that the DPP has remained vir­tu­al­ly the same with 51.636 how­ev­er R1 has decreased and R2 has increased. And on the sup­port side we see both S1 and S2 mov­ing lower.
    • So it looks like more volatil­i­ty came into the mar­ket and more of a shit to the down­side might be upon us. Let’s wait and see of course.
  • Where are the high­er time frame S/R levels?
    • We are still in the 49.50 to 52.75 range when we look to the daily
  • What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
    • On the 4H chart we can see that there is addi­tion­al sup­port on the 50.80 as well
    • On the 30M chart we can see that start­ed off at the 52 S/R lev­el and reject­ed it (which is also the DPP level)
      • Fur­ther­more we can see that NY ses­sion dropped till the 51.10 lev­el before find­ing sup­port and bounc­ing off that.
  • What has the Asian Ses­sion printed?
    • AS open we gapped up and ever since we have been arch­ing over in a dead cat bounce kind of way when we look at the 30M chart
  • ATR
    • What is the ATR on the daily?
      • Is it increasing/decreasing?
      • 2.4309 we are still decreas­ing slightly

Trade Plan

  • My plan is to wait and see if we reject any of the lev­els men­tioned before. I will espe­cial­ly look on the sup­port side to see if we can reverse at any of those lev­els. The first point of inter­est is the 51.10 lev­el that we bounced off of at the end of yesterday’s NY session. 
    • Can we hold that level 
      • If we can I’ll be look­ing to take a long posi­tion after a swing rever­sal has played out
    • If we do end up break­ing that lev­el I will look for a LKC BD setup

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

  • Only take 4 trades
  • Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze, KC BO/BD)
  • Only trade what you see

Read­ing the Tape

  • What is print­ing? Look for PA with high­er TV and S/R levels.
    • We quick­ly dropped to the 51.10 lev­el after Lon­don opened
      • It looks like we are bounc­ing off that lev­el again
    • T1 loss 5 ticks
    • This is a heavy rejec­tion of the 51.10 level
      • The 30M chart shows one big long down bar and one big long up bar and it’s still going
    • We just touched the UKC at 51.60
      • This was quite a run actually
    • I am still trad­ing small­er sizes because I am not on my sharpest today
    • All my rules went out of the win­dow and I am not trad­ing well. Damn it. I told myself I would be extra cau­tious and then I took out 2 hedge posi­tions and then added to one posi­tion at the top. Even took a big­ger size posi­tion. WTF?! So not good… the news I had received ear­li­er has impaired my abil­i­ty to make sound calls in the mar­ket so I am going to shut off my trad­ing desk and go for a walk. I won’t lit­er­al­ly shut it off because I am still record­ing my screen for lat­er review. But I am done. 

Trade Man­age­ment

Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are dur­ing the trade

  • T1
    • Why? What do I see?
      • Price reject­ed the 51.10 lev­el and returned up to the LKC again and formed an inde­ci­sion can­dle so thought we might reverse a lit­tle before we pos­si­ble break back up
        • Entry
          • 51.335
    • SL
      • Just above the 5M VWAP mean
      • 51.38
    • TP
      • 51.172
        • At the low­er end of the pre­vi­ous candle
    • Trade Man­age­ment
      • Got out at 51.383 because I saw PA not drop­ping as quick as I would have expect­ed and it was mak­ing efforts to break up
      • Lost 5 ticks on this trade
  • T2
    • MESSED UP
  • T3
    • MESSED UP
  • T4
    • MESSED UP

Trade Review

  • Did you let your trade play out or did you cov­er or stop out soon­er? If so, why?

Dai­ly Report Card

  • Only take 4 trades
    • I took 5 trades.
      • The 5th trade was to make up for my stu­pid mis­take of hedg­ing and got aggres­sive and want­ed to take back what is mine. HEDGING IS NOT MY STRATEGY. I only take one posi­tion at a time. 
  • Only take PB setups (swing rever­sal, swing rever­sal with con­tin­u­a­tion, squeeze, KC BO/BD)
    • I don’t know what I was doing. All I know is that my mind is not in the right state. 
  • Only trade what you see
    • Well, what­ev­er I thought I saw wasn’t it. 

Con­clu­sion

Sev­er­al things went wrong. I was hav­ing a bad day and I should not have trad­ed today but I did any­way. Had a lit­tle too much caf­feine and not enough car­bo­hy­drates and was feel­ing edgy. In a sort of fight or flight mode. I broke all my rules. I trad­ed out of anger and want­ed to make up for loss­es. Then I tried to force my will on the mar­ket. Which obvi­ous­ly is futile. So how can I pre­vent this in the future? I will be more atten­tive to this state of mind next time it comes around. I had already not­ed that I had some unpleas­ant news but now I know that I should stay out of the mar­ket completely. 

Let’s now look at the pos­i­tives. I fig­ured out quick­ly that I went on tilt and closed off my posi­tions very soon after. I real­ized what I was doing and I had to stop. As a result I only lost 1.5% of my account as opposed to the 20+% last time. So that’s an improve­ment. This shows how men­tal this trad­ing ‘game’ is and it should be respect­ed for what it is. An elite game of mar­ket participants. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly. 

QODE META

oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trad­ing, day­trad­ing, com­modi­ties, play­book, one good trade, 

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

No Comments

Post A Comment