
13 Dec 12132018 Trade Plan — Went on T!LT. Luckily I cut my losses short.
12132018 Trade Plan — Went on T!LT. Luckily I cut my losses short.
Terminology (partially made up by yours truly)
- PA = Price Action
- BO = Break Out
- BD = Break Down
- CAR = Confirm As Resistance
- CAS = Confirm As Support
- UKC = Upper Keltner Channel
- LKC = Lower Keltner Channel
- TV = Tick Volume
- WPP = Weekly Pivot Point
- DPP = Daily Pivot Point
- DR = Daily Resistance (pivot)
- DS = Daily Support (pivot)
- WR = Weekly Resistance (pivot)
- WS = Weekly Support (pivot)
- HL = Higher Low
- HH = Higher High
- LH = Lower High
- LL = Lower Low
- SD = Standard Deviation
- VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
- AS = Asian Session
- LS = London Session (EU)
- NY = New York Session (US)
Personal Checklist
5 positive 1 negative | Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday |
12/08/2018 | 12/09/2018 | 12/10/2018 | 12/11/2018 | 12/12/2018 | 12/13/2018 | |
Beers night before | 6 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 1 red wine | 2 red wines |
Hours sleep | 7.5 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
Sleep well? | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Melatonin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Negative thoughts? | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Exercise yester(to)day | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Gratitude | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Joy | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Anger | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Fear | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Focus | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Coffees today | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1 espresso spread over 2 hours | 1.5 coffee | 0 | 1 espresso | half cup in early morning, 1 espresso afternoon |
no | no | yes | no rice etc. | |||
Water 2.2L bottles | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Vitamins | yes | no | no | yes | yes | yes |
Time bed yesterday | 01:00 | 03:00 | 04:00 | 11:00 | 10:30 | 10:00 |
Health review (for the past week)
- How would you describe your overall health?
- Health has been getting better. Beel sleeping more so but still not a 100% fit. I’m getting there though.
- How do you feel?
- I was feeling great but then got some personal news that made me emotional so it is best to be extra cautious today.
- How would you rate it (1–5)?
- 1
The Big Picture (daily)
- What happened yesterday?
- Yesterday we went up and tested the 52.90 level a few times before we dropped down to the 52 level and tried to recover but made a LH at 52.70
- We then slowly traded lower before we, late NY session, dropped to the 51.25 level
- This level is still way off the 4H support level of 50.80 so let’s see if we will drop further down to this support level or that we can hold this level
- What is the market sentiment?
- What does the crowd think?
- According to investing.com yesterday
- All sentiments is 59% bullish
- Last week 64% bullish
- Last 3 days 66% bullish
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 58% bullish
- Last week 64% bullish
- Last 3 days 64% bullish
- Overall sentiment dropped 1 point where last week stayed the same, but the last 3 days dropped 2 points
- According to investing.com yesterday
- What does the crowd think?
- EURUSD
- Previous range
- High 1.14003
- Low 1.13065
- Yesterday’s range
- Low 1.13159
- High 1.13867
- According to IG client sentiment
- Mixed bias still even though 58.1% are still net-long on the pair
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
- Previous range
- Gold
- Yesterday’s data
- Low 1241.30
- High 1249.50
- Close 1243.10
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 68% bullish
- Last week 67% bullish
- Last 3 days 69% bullish
- According to investing.com today
- Today’s data
- Low 1242.28
- High 1247.09
- Close 1245.23
- According to investing.com today
- According to investing.com today
- All sentiments is 69% bullish
- Last week 68% bullish
- Last 3 days 70% bullish
- Gold sentiment has increased by 1 point all across the board. Probably because of more global turmoil making investors put their money into gold
- According to investing.com today
- According to investing.com today
- Yesterday’s data
- Geopolitics
- Trump intervention comment may be gift to Huawei CFO
- As the hearing was winding up in a Canadian court, Trump told Reuters he would intervene in the U.S. Justice Department’s case against Meng if it would serve national security interests or help close a trade deal with China.
- Mexican president says he and Trump discussed joint program on migration
- Ex-Venezuela oil minister Martinez dies in state custody
- Arrested in 2017 for letting a poor refinancing deal for Citgo to go ahead without government approval
- Sure to raise questions on conditions of imprisoned former politicians and government officials
- U.S. Senate advances resolution to end military support for Saudis in Yemen
- Turkey to launch operation against U.S.-backed Kurds in Syria ‘in a few days’
- Ankara and Washington have long been at odds over Syria, where the United States has backed the YPG Kurdish militia in the fight against Islamic State insurgents.
- PM May pledges to quit before next UK election as she fights leadership challenge
- British Prime Minister Theresa May promised on Wednesday to step down before the next parliamentary election due in 2022, hoping to win over wavering lawmakers before a no confidence vote triggered by Brexiteers in her Conservative Party.
- Less than four months before Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29, the country’s exit is in chaos with options ranging from a potentially disorderly “no-deal” departure to another referendum that could reverse it.
- Yemen warring parties agree to reopen Sanaa airport, resume oil, gas exports
- U.S. wants U.N. to ban nuclear ballistic missile work by Iran
- Maduro accuses U.S. official of plotting Venezuela invasion, gives no evidence
- Maduro made his accusation just days after Russian bombers landed in Venezuela to carry out joint military exercises, sparking a war of words between Moscow and Washington.
- Failure to agree climate deal rules would be suicidal — U.N. chief
- Failure by countries to agree rules on implementing the 2015 Paris climate agreement aimed at curbing global warming would be suicidal, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Wednesday.
- Trump intervention comment may be gift to Huawei CFO
Intraday Fundamentals
- API report
- Oil Prices Head Higher After API Reports Huge Crude Draw
- The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a huge crude oil inventory draw 10.18 million barrels for the week ending December 7, compared to analyst expectations that we would see a draw in crude oil inventories of 2.990 million barrels.
- Expected a draw of 3 million but got draw of 10 million according to API
- Last week, the API reported a build of over 5 million barrels. A day later, the EIA had a completely contradictory report showing a 7.3‑million-barrel draw.
- Oil Prices Head Higher After API Reports Huge Crude Draw
- EIA report
- Forecast was ‑2.990M but the actual number was ‑1.208M which would mean it’s a bearish outcome. Let’s see how the market will react to this.
- What are the headlines of today?
- China’s CNPC Halts Iran Gas Investment Under U.S. Pressure
- Saudi Arabia Under Fire From All Sides
- Saudi Arabia bet that it could defy the U.S. when it pushed for oil production cuts at the OPEC+ meeting, gambling that President Trump would not lash out in retaliation despite some heavy-handed pressure from his twitter feed ahead of the summit in Vienna. This week, the bet seems to have paid off.
- OPEC exit frees Qatar from U.S. legal concerns
- Even before taking over Qatar’s energy policy in a government reshuffle last month, Qatar Petroleum (QP) CEO Saad al-Kaabi had long wanted the Gulf state to leave OPEC.
- Kaabi was concerned OPEC membership could be a stumbling block for QP’s ambitions in the United States, where it has one of the world’s biggest LNG terminals, and a distraction as Doha doubles down on gas production, three industry sources said.
- Big Oil Doubles Down On Shale Despite Price Drop
- Asian shares rally on U.S.-China trade thaw
- Gold Prices Flat as U.S. Dollar Steadies
- China Pushes Global Oil Trading To All-time High In 2018
- This year’s crude oil futures trading activity is on track for a record high, as trading volumes in China’s new yuan-denominated futures contract is offsetting lower activity in the world’s top benchmarks and most active contracts, Brent and WTI, Reuters reports, citing data from exchanges.
- Record-high U.S. crude oil production contributes to lower forecast prices
- Trump ex-lawyer Cohen given three years in prison as risks rise for Trump
- How is the Geopolitical stability in the world?
- Russia is still a target for the US especially with the move with Venezuela
- China and US are calmer in their trade war at the moment but that could change any day. You never know with Trump.
- Then there’s some conflict coming from Turkey as well
- PM May is trying to soften the UK government so let’s see how that goes.
- Additional OPEC news
- None at this moment besides that Qatar wanted to leave OPEC even before all the troubles
Intraday Technical Analysis
Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Week | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | |
12/05/2018 | 12/06/2018 | 12/07/2018 | 12/3 — 12/7 | 12/10/2018 | 12/11/2018 | 12/12/2018 | |
High | 54.42 | 53.28 | 54.2 | 54.537 | 52.78 | 52 | 52.827 |
Low | 52.125 | 50.055 | 50.57 | 50.055 | 50.5 | 50.67 | 50.91 |
Close | 52.91 | 51.694 | 52.21 | 52.21 | 50.871 | 51.925 | 51.17 |
Pip move | 229.5 | 322.5 | 363 | 448.2 | 228 | 172 | 191.7 |
PP | 53.152 | 51.676 | 52.327 | 52.267 | 51.384 | 51.662 | 51.636 |
R1 | 54.179 | 53.297 | 54.084 | 54.479 | 52.268 | 52.654 | 52.362 |
R2 | 55.447 | 54.901 | 55.957 | 56.749 | 53.664 | 53 | 53.553 |
S1 | 51.884 | 50.072 | 50.454 | 49.997 | 49.988 | 51 | 50.445 |
S2 | 50.857 | 48.451 | 48.697 | 47.785 | 49.104 | 50 | 49.719 |
TV | 102,902 | 351,292 | 376,998 | 1,436,979 | 213,946 | 165,562 | 207,997 |
- What can we tell from the PP levels?
- We can tell that the DPP has remained virtually the same with 51.636 however R1 has decreased and R2 has increased. And on the support side we see both S1 and S2 moving lower.
- So it looks like more volatility came into the market and more of a shit to the downside might be upon us. Let’s wait and see of course.
- Where are the higher time frame S/R levels?
- We are still in the 49.50 to 52.75 range when we look to the daily
- What does the 4H and 30M chart show?
- On the 4H chart we can see that there is additional support on the 50.80 as well
- On the 30M chart we can see that started off at the 52 S/R level and rejected it (which is also the DPP level)
- Furthermore we can see that NY session dropped till the 51.10 level before finding support and bouncing off that.
- What has the Asian Session printed?
- AS open we gapped up and ever since we have been arching over in a dead cat bounce kind of way when we look at the 30M chart
- ATR
- What is the ATR on the daily?
- Is it increasing/decreasing?
- 2.4309 we are still decreasing slightly
- What is the ATR on the daily?
Trade Plan
- My plan is to wait and see if we reject any of the levels mentioned before. I will especially look on the support side to see if we can reverse at any of those levels. The first point of interest is the 51.10 level that we bounced off of at the end of yesterday’s NY session.
- Can we hold that level
- If we can I’ll be looking to take a long position after a swing reversal has played out
- If we do end up breaking that level I will look for a LKC BD setup
- Can we hold that level
My goals for the day (Daily Report Card)
- Only take 4 trades
- Only take PB setups (swing reversal, swing reversal with continuation, squeeze, KC BO/BD)
- Only trade what you see
Reading the Tape
- What is printing? Look for PA with higher TV and S/R levels.
- We quickly dropped to the 51.10 level after London opened
- It looks like we are bouncing off that level again
- T1 loss 5 ticks
- This is a heavy rejection of the 51.10 level
- The 30M chart shows one big long down bar and one big long up bar and it’s still going
- We just touched the UKC at 51.60
- This was quite a run actually
- I am still trading smaller sizes because I am not on my sharpest today
- All my rules went out of the window and I am not trading well. Damn it. I told myself I would be extra cautious and then I took out 2 hedge positions and then added to one position at the top. Even took a bigger size position. WTF?! So not good… the news I had received earlier has impaired my ability to make sound calls in the market so I am going to shut off my trading desk and go for a walk. I won’t literally shut it off because I am still recording my screen for later review. But I am done.
- We quickly dropped to the 51.10 level after London opened
Trade Management
Explain what trade you put on (include price, SL, TP) and what your thoughts are during the trade
- T1
- Why? What do I see?
- Price rejected the 51.10 level and returned up to the LKC again and formed an indecision candle so thought we might reverse a little before we possible break back up
- Entry
- 51.335
- Entry
- Price rejected the 51.10 level and returned up to the LKC again and formed an indecision candle so thought we might reverse a little before we possible break back up
- SL
- Just above the 5M VWAP mean
- 51.38
- TP
- 51.172
- At the lower end of the previous candle
- 51.172
- Trade Management
- Got out at 51.383 because I saw PA not dropping as quick as I would have expected and it was making efforts to break up
- Lost 5 ticks on this trade
- Why? What do I see?
- T2
- MESSED UP
- T3
- MESSED UP
- T4
- MESSED UP
Trade Review
- Did you let your trade play out or did you cover or stop out sooner? If so, why?
Daily Report Card
- Only take 4 trades
- I took 5 trades.
- The 5th trade was to make up for my stupid mistake of hedging and got aggressive and wanted to take back what is mine. HEDGING IS NOT MY STRATEGY. I only take one position at a time.
- I took 5 trades.
- Only take PB setups (swing reversal, swing reversal with continuation, squeeze, KC BO/BD)
- I don’t know what I was doing. All I know is that my mind is not in the right state.
- Only trade what you see
- Well, whatever I thought I saw wasn’t it.
Conclusion
Several things went wrong. I was having a bad day and I should not have traded today but I did anyway. Had a little too much caffeine and not enough carbohydrates and was feeling edgy. In a sort of fight or flight mode. I broke all my rules. I traded out of anger and wanted to make up for losses. Then I tried to force my will on the market. Which obviously is futile. So how can I prevent this in the future? I will be more attentive to this state of mind next time it comes around. I had already noted that I had some unpleasant news but now I know that I should stay out of the market completely.
Let’s now look at the positives. I figured out quickly that I went on tilt and closed off my positions very soon after. I realized what I was doing and I had to stop. As a result I only lost 1.5% of my account as opposed to the 20+% last time. So that’s an improvement. This shows how mental this trading ‘game’ is and it should be respected for what it is. An elite game of market participants.
Feedback?
Any questions or feedback you might have please feel free to leave a comment or contact me directly.
QODE META
oil, wti, crude oil, crude, day trading, daytrading, commodities, playbook, one good trade,
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